The influence of extreme water levels on coastal wetland extent across the Laurentian Great Lakes.

Laurentian Great Lakes coastal wetlands (GLCW) are ecological hotspots and their integrity depends upon dynamic hydrologic regimes of the Great Lakes. GLCW naturally adjust to changes in hydrologic regimes via migration, but Great Lakes water levels may be shifting faster than wetlands can manage: 2000-2015 marked an extended low water level period and was followed by record highs in 2017-2020. Our objective was to quantify how Great Lakes water levels impact GLCW linear extent (from the shoreline to open water). We calculated wetland extent and migration from 2011 to 2019 using data from 1538 vegetation transects at 342 sites across the U.S. shoreline of the Great Lakes. Mediated multiple linear regression with Bayesian hierarchical modeling investigated the relationship between water levels and wetland extent. We employed Bayesian hierarchical modeling because (1) the dataset was spatially nested, with sampling points within wetlands within Great Lakes and (2) Bayesian statistics offer flexibility for environmental modeling, such as the inclusion of mediation in models, where we can assess both direct influences of Great Lake water levels on wetland extent and indirect (i.e., mediated) influences of water levels via the presence of vegetation zones on thus wetland extent. Results showed that, overall, there was a landward migration from 2011 to 2019 (although 38 % of wetlands had lakeward migration of the wetland-upland border). Wetland length and inundation length decreased with increased water levels, as mediated by the presence of certain vegetation zones. This decrease in wetland extent is of concern because it likely relates to a decrease in wetland function and habitat. A better understanding of how GLCW migrate with shifts in water levels enables decision makers to better predict where Great Lakes coastal wetlands are at risk of being lost and thus where to prioritize management efforts.

Change detection and attribution of flow regime: A case study of Allegheny river catchment, PA (US).

The present study focuses on change detection and attribution analysis for a case study of Allegheny river catchment (at two unregulated sites namely Eldred and Salamanca) in USA. The proposed methodology involves, multiple change-point detection (MCPD) techniques i.e., Binary Segmentation based cumulative sum algorithms with Monte Carlo based threshold (BSCSth) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) based penalty (BSCSBIC) and validating the two techniques using standard performance measures for different hypothetical riverflow time-series. The proposed BSCSth technique was applied to the Allegheny river at two sites for the series of different hydrological alteration indicators to identify the location of change-point in mean, and the hydrological regime shifts. To perform attribution analysis, hydrologic simulations were carried out using Sacramento model for the identified segments. The overall hydrologic alterations of selected annual flow metrics extracted from daily simulated flows and observed flow values were also estimated. The results of MCPD analysis showed that overall three hydrological regimes comprising of three segments i.e., near natural period (NNP, 1940-1955), low impact period (LIP, 1956-1966) and high impact period (HIP, 1967-2014) were identified for both the sites. The results of attribution analysis for the three cases (case-1: NNP & LIP; case-2: LIP & HIP; case-3: NNP & HIP) showed that for the case-1, the changes of flow regimes in Eldred and Salamanca were predominantly affected by climate-induced processes. But, for case-2 and case-3, it was seen that there were magnification of human-induced changes probably due to the landuse change (forest and rangeland increased by 18.31% (19.79%) for Eldred (Salamanca) from 1940 to 1992), construction of Kinzua dam (in the year 1966) and other anthropogenic pressures. Thus, the results of the study can be helpful for quantifying the main drivers of hydrological changes in river basin, and planning suitable water resource management strategies in the basin.

Hard science is essential to restoring soft-sediment intertidal habitats in burgeoning East Asia.

Intertidal soft-sediment ecosystems such as mangrove, saltmarsh, and tidal flats face multiple stresses along the burgeoning East Asia coastline. In addition to direct habitat loss, ecosystem structure, function, and capacity for ecosystem services of these habitats are significantly affected by anthropogenic loss of hydrologic connectivity, introduction of invasive exotic species, and chemical pollution. These dramatic changes to ecosystem structure and function are illustrated by four case studies along the East Asian coast: the Mai Po Marshes in Hong Kong, the Yunxiao wetlands in Fujian, China, and the Lake Sihwa and Saemangeum tidal flats in Korea. While investment in restoration is increasing significantly in the region, the lack of key basic knowledge on aspects of the behaviour of intertidal soft-sediment ecosystems, particularly those in Asia, impairs the effectiveness of these efforts. The relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem function for relatively species-poor mangrove, seagrass, and saltmarsh systems has implications for restoration targeting monospecific plantations. The trajectory of recovery and return of ecosystem function and services is also poorly known, and may deviate from simple expectations. As many introduced species have become established along the East Asian coast, their long-term impact on ecosystem function as well as the socio-economics of coastal communities demand a multidisciplinary approach to assessing options for restoration and management. These knowledge gaps require urgent attention in order to inform future restoration and management of intertidal soft-sediment ecosystems in fast-developing East Asia.

Hydrological cycle

The Pantanal hydrological cycle holds an important meaning in the Alto Paraguay Basin, comprising two areas with considerably diverse conditions regarding natural and water resources: the Plateau and the Plains. From the perspective of the ecosystem function, the hydrological flow in the relationship between plateau and plains is important for the creation of reproductive and feeding niches for the regional biodiversity. In general, river declivity in the plateau is 0.6 m/km while declivity on the plains varies from 0.1 to 0.3 m/km. The environment in the plains is characteristically seasonal and is home to an exuberant and abundant diversity of species, including some animals threatened with extinction. When the flat surface meets the plains there is a diminished water flow on the riverbeds and, during the rainy season the rivers overflow their banks, flooding the lowlands. Average annual precipitation in the Basin is 1,396 mm, ranging from 800 mm to 1,600 mm, and the heaviest rainfall occurs in the plateau region. The low drainage capacity of the rivers and lakes that shape the Pantanal, coupled with the climate in the region, produce very high evaporation: approximately 60% of all the waters coming from the plateau are lost through evaporation. The Alto Paraguay Basin, including the Pantanal, while boasting an abundant availability of water resources, also has some spots with water scarcity in some sub-basins, at different times of the year. Climate conditions alone are not enough to explain the differences observed in the Paraguay River regime and some of its tributaries. The complexity of the hydrologic regime of the Paraguay River is due to the low declivity of the lands that comprise the Mato Grosso plains and plateau (50 to 30 cm/km from east to west and 3 to 1.5 cm/km from north to south) as well as the area's dimension, which remains periodically flooded with a large volume of water.

O ciclo hidrológico do Pantanal guarda um significado importante na bacia do Alto Paraguai, a qual compreende duas áreas em condições consideravelmente diversas no que se refere aos recursos hídricos e naturais, o planalto e a planície. Sob o enfoque de função ecossistêmica, o fluxo hidrológico na relação planalto-planície é importante para a criação de nichos reprodutivos e alimentares para a biodiversidade regional. Em geral, a declividade dos rios no planalto é de 0,6 m/km enquanto que a declividade na planície é de 0,1 a 0,3 m/km, e o ambiente na planície é caracteristicamente sazonal e mantém uma diversidade de espécies exuberantes em abundância, inclusive de animais ameaçados de extinção. Ao encontrar a planície, a superfície plana faz diminuir o fluxo de água no leito dos rios e, na época de chuva, os rios transbordam seus leitos, inundando a planície. A precipitação média anual da bacia é de 1.396 mm, variando entre 800 mm e 1.600 mm, e as maiores chuvas são observadas na região do planalto. A baixa capacidade de drenagem dos rios e lagos que formam o Pantanal e o clima da região fazem com que, aproximadamente, 60% de todas as águas provenientes do planalto sejam perdidas por evaporação. A bacia do Alto Paraguai, incluindo o Pantanal, embora tenha abundante disponibilidade de recursos hídricos, apresenta situações de escassez em determinadas sub-bacias e em determinadas épocas do ano. As condições climáticas por si só não são suficientes para explicar as diferenças que são observadas no regime do rio Paraguai e de alguns de seus afluentes. A complexidade do regime hidrológico do rio Paraguai está relacionada à baixa declividade dos terrenos que integram as planícies e pantanais mato-grossenses (de 50 a 30 cm/km no sentido leste-oeste e de 3 a 1,5 cm/km de norte para o sul) e também à extensão da área que permanece periodicamente inundada com grande volume de água.