Greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios in the solid waste sector for compliance with the Brazilian NDC: Case study of the Recife metropolitan area, Brazil.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that the waste sector is a potential emitter of methane gas (CH4), which has a greenhouse effect up to 28 times greater than that of carbon dioxide (CO2). The management of municipal solid waste (MSW) generates greenhouse gases (GHG) directly through emissions from the process itself as well as indirectly through transportation and energy consumption. The objective of this study was to evaluate the GHG emissions contributed by the waste sector in the Recife metropolitan region (RMR) and to define mitigation scenarios to comply with the Brazilian Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), a result of the Paris Agreement. To achieve this, an exploratory study was carried out, including a literature review, collection of data, estimation of emissions using the IPCC model (2006), and comparison between the values assumed by the country in 2015 and those estimated in the adopted mitigation scenarios. The RMR is composed of 15 municipalities, has an area of 3,216,262 km2 and a population of 4,054,866 inhabitants (2018), generating approximality 1.4 million t-year of MSW. It was estimated that, in the period from 2006 to 2018, 25.4 million tCO2e were emitted. The comparative analysis between the absolute values defined in the Brazilian NDC and the results from the mitigation scenarios showed that approximately 36 million tCO2e could be avoided through the disposal of MSW in the RMR, equivalent to a 52% reduction in emissions estimated for 2030, a percentage greater than the 47% reduction assumed in the Paris Agreement.

Current and Future Climate Extremes Over Latin America and Caribbean: Assessing Earth System Models from High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP).

Extreme temperature and precipitation events are the primary triggers of hazards, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and landslides, with localized impacts. In this sense, the finer grids of Earth System models (ESMs) could play an essential role in better estimating extreme climate events. The performance of High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models is evaluated using the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) over the 1981-2014 period and future changes (2021-2050) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5, over ten regions in Latin America and the Caribbean. The impact of increasing the horizontal resolution in estimating extreme climate variability on a regional scale is first compared against reference gridded datasets, including reanalysis, satellite, and merging products. We used three different groups based on the resolution of the model's grid (sg): (i) low (0.8° ≤ sg ≤ 1.87°), (ii) intermediate (0.5° ≤ sg ≤ 0.7°), and (iii) high (0.23° ≥ sg ≤ 0.35°). Our analysis indicates that there was no clear evidence to support the posit that increasing horizontal resolution improves model performance. The ECMWF-IFS family of models appears to be a plausible choice to represent climate extremes, followed by the ensemble mean of HighResMIP in their intermediate resolution. For future climate, the projections indicate a consensus of temperature and precipitation climate extremes increase across most of the ten regions. Despite the uncertainties presented in this study, climate models have been and will continue to be an important tool for assessing risk in the face of extreme events. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41748-022-00337-7.

Impacts of scenarios RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5 on plant physiology in Tapajos National Forest in the Brazilian Amazon using the ED2. 2 model / Impactos dos cenários RCP4. 5 e RCP8. 5 na fisiologia vegetal na Floresta Nacional do Tapajós, na Amazônia brasileira, através do modelo ED2. 2

Models that simulate the process of stomatal conductance (gs) for a given set of environmental conditions are important, as this process is the main mechanism that controls the gas exchange of terrestrial plants absorbing atmospheric CO2 in tropical forests. Simulations were performed for the Tapajós National Forest, in the western Brazilian Amazon, observing the gs process under the current climate scenario (control) and under the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (2071 - 2100), using the ED2.2 ecosystem demography model. The results showed that the lower availability of soil water for the plants reduced photosynthesis due to the closing of the stomata. The model results for gross primary productivity (GPP) are similar to those observed in the field, varying about ≈24 MgC ha-1 year-1 for the rainy season and ≈23 MgC ha-1 year-1 for the dry season (average 2002 to 2010) in the control scenario. In the RCP4.5 scenario, simulated GPP was 30.7 and 30 MgC ha-1year-1 for the rainy and dry season, respectively (30.5 and 25 MgC ha-1year-1, respectively, for the RCP8.5 scenario). Our results also show that there may be a limitation on the increase in biomass carbon with the concentration of CO2, as GPP was lower in RCP8.5, despite this scenario having a higher value of atmospheric CO2 relative to RCP4.5.(AU)

Modelos que simulam o processo de condutância estomática (gs) para um determinado conjunto de condições ambientais são importantes, pois esse processo é o principal mecanismo que controla as trocas gasosas das plantas terrestres ao absorver o CO2 atmosférico em florestas tropicais. Realizamos simulações para a Floresta Nacional do Tapajós, na Amazônia Ocidental brasileira, observando o processo da gs sob o cenário climático atual (controle) e sob os cenários RCP4.5 e RCP8.5 (2071 - 2100) usando o modelo demográfico de ecossistema ED2.2. Os resultados mostraram que a menor disponibilidade de água no solo para as plantas reduziu a fotossíntese devido ao fechamento dos estômatos. Os resultados do modelo para produtividade primária bruta (PPB) foram semelhantes aos observados em campo, variando cerca de ≈24 MgC ha-1 ano-1 para a estação chuvosa e ≈23 MgC ha-1 ano-1 para a estação seca (média 2002 a 2010) no cenário controle. No cenário RCP4.5, o resultado da PPB simulado foi de 30,7 e 30 MgC ha-1ano-1 para as estações chuvosa e seca, respectivamente (30,5 e 25 MgC ha-1 ano-1, respectivamente, para o cenário RCP8.5). Nossos resultados mostram que pode haver uma limitação no aumento do carbono da biomassa com a concentração de CO2, uma vez que a PPB foi menor no RCP8.5, apesar deste cenário ter um valor maior de CO2 atmosférico em relação ao RCP4.5.(AU)

Species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities of terrestrial mammals at risk under climate change and land-use/cover change scenarios in Mexico.

There is a need to revise the framework used to project species risks under climate change (CC) and land-use/cover change (LUCC) scenarios. We built a CC risk index using the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework, where risk is a function of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity), exposure, and hazard. We incorporated future LUCC scenarios as part of the exposure component. We combined a trait-based approach based on biological characteristics of species with a correlative approach based on ecological niche modeling, assigning risk scores to species, taxonomic (orders), and functional (trophic, body size, and locomotion) groups of terrestrial mammals occurring in Mexico. We identified 15 species projected to lose their climatic suitability. Of the 11 taxonomic orders, Eulipotyphla, Didelphimorphia, Artiodactyla, and Lagomorpha had the highest risk scores. Of the 19 trophic groups, piscivores, insectivores under canopy, frugivores-granivores, herbivores browser, and myrmecophagous had the highest risk scores. Of the five body-sized groups, large-sized species (>15 kg) had highest risk scores. Of the seven locomotion groups, arboreal and semi-aquatics had highest risk scores. CC and LUCC scenarios reduced suitable areas of species potential distributions by 37.5% (with CC), and 51% (with CC and LUCC) under a limited full-dispersal assumption. Reductions in suitable areas of species potential distributions increased to 50.2% (with CC), and 52.4% (with CC and LUCC) under a non-dispersal assumption. Species-rich areas (>75% species) projected 36% (with CC) and 57% (with CC and LUCC) reductions in suitability for 2070. Shifts in climatic suitability projections of species-rich areas increased in number of species in northeast and southeast Mexico and decreased in northwest and southern Mexico, suggesting important species turnover. High-risk projections under future CC and LUCC scenarios for species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities, and species-rich areas of terrestrial mammals highlight trends in different impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem function.

Agroclimatic zoning for bananas under climate change in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is the main cause of biotic and abiotic stresses in plants and affects yield. Therefore, we sought to carry out a study on future changes in the agroclimatic conditions of banana cultivation in Brazil. The current agroclimatic zoning was carried out with data obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology related to mean air temperature, annual rainfall, and soil texture data in Brazil. The global climate model BCC-CSM1.1 (Beijing Climate Center-Climate System Model, version 1.1), adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, corresponding to Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 for the period 2050 (2041-2060) and 2070 (2061-2080), obtained through the CHELSA V1.2 platform, was chosen for the climate projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Matrix images at a depth of 5-15 cm, obtained through the product of the SoilGrids system, were used for the texture data. ArcGIS version 10.8 was used to construct the maps. RESULTS: Areas favorable to the crop plantation were classified as suitable when air temperature TAIR was between 20 and 29 °C, annual rainfall RANNUAL between 1200 and 1900 mm, and soil clay content CSOIL between 30 and 55%. Subsequently, the information was reclassified, summarizing the classes into preferential, recommended, little recommended, and not recommended. The current scenario shows a preferential class of 8.1%, recommended of 44.6%, little recommended of 47.1%, and not recommended of 0.1% for the Brazilian territory. CONCLUSION: The results show no drastic changes in the total area regarding the classes, but there is a migration from these zones; that is, from tropical to subtropical and temperate regions. RCP 8.5-2070 (2061-2080) showed trends with negative impacts on arable areas for banana cultivation at the end of the century. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Higher than expected N2O emissions from soybean crops in the Pampas Region of Argentina: Estimates from DayCent simulations and field measurements.

In developing countries, agriculture generally represents a large fraction of GHG emissions reported in National Inventories, and emissions are typically estimated using Tier 1 IPCC guidelines. However, field data and locally adapted simulation models can improve the accuracy of IPCC estimations. In this study we aimed to quantify anthropogenic N2O emissions from croplands of Argentina through field measurements, model simulations and IPCC guidelines. We measured N2O emissions and their controlling factors in 62 plots of the Pampas Region with corn, soybean and wheat/soybean crops and in unmanaged grasslands. We accounted for gross emissions from crops and background emissions from unmanaged grasslands to calculate net anthropogenic emissions from crops as the difference between them. We calibrated and evaluated the DayCent model and then simulated different weather and management scenarios. Finally, we applied IPCC guidelines to estimate anthropogenic N2O emissions at the same plots. The DayCent model accurately simulated annual N2O emission for all crops as compared to measured data (RMSE = 1.4 g N ha-1 day-1). Measured and simulated emissions in soybean crops were higher than in corn and wheat/soybean crops. Gross N2O emissions ranged from 1.4 to 5.1 kg N ha-1 yr-1 for current environmental (soil and weather) and management (crops and fertilizer doses) conditions. Background emissions ranged between 1.1 and 1.3 kg N ha-1 yr-1, and therefore net anthropogenic emissions ranged from 0.3 to 4.0 kg N ha-1 yr-1. IPCC Tier 1 emission factors underestimated N2O releases from soybean, that were on average 4.87 times greater when estimated with DayCent and observations (0.53 vs 2.47 and 2.69 kg N ha-1 yr-1, respectively). On the contrary, IPCC estimates for corn and wheat/soybean crops were similar to modeled and measured values. Our results suggest that N2O emissions from the vast 15 million ha of soybean croplands in the Pampas Region may be substantially underestimated.

Avoiding burning practice and its consequences on the greenhouse gas emission in sugarcane areas southern Brazil.

There is a growing need of sustainable solutions for balancing agricultural production with the reduction of its environmental impacts. The rapid increase in sugarcane cultivation and the progressive conversion of pre-harvest burning (BH) to green harvest (GH) have brought into debate the contribution of agricultural sector to the greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. This study focused on the estimated GHG emission from sugarcane cultivation during years in which sugarcane areas in southern Brazil expanded and passed throughout an important transition, from 2006 to 2012, when harvest adopted was changed from burned to not-burned based. Sugarcane management and harvest were mapped through visual interpretation of Landsat-type satellite images, and the areas under sugarcane cultivation were distinguished according to each agricultural phase and harvest regime (i.e., manual harvest with burning vs. green mechanized harvest). Based on a broad data review and applying the IPCC (2006) methodologies, the results were expressed in terms of kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent (kg CO2eq ha-1). Avoiding burn prior to harvest, even during expansion of sugarcane areas, promoted a mean reduction of GHG emission from 901 to 686 kg CO2eq ha-1 relative to harvest phase (24% lower) and an increase from 1418.3 to 1507.9 kg CO2eq ha-1 related to the ratoon maintenance phase (6% higher). Analyzing the total GHG emission per unit of cultivated sugarcane area (hectare), it was observed a decrease from 2275 to 2034 kg CO2eq ha-1 (11% reduction). The gradual transition of pre-harvest burning on that period has contributed to the reduction of GHG emission associated with sugarcane production being an important step towards GHG mitigation while still providing more sustainable sugar and ethanol production in southern Brazil.

Trends and gaps in climate change and health research in North America.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (2014) assessed the state of climate change and health knowledge, globally through the Human Health: Impacts, Adaptation, and Co-Benefits Chapter and regionally through chapters, such as the North America Chapter. With IPCC's 6th Assessment Report scheduled to be released in 2021-22, we asked: how has climate change and health research in North America advanced since the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report in 2014? Specifically, we systematically identified and examined trends in the extent, range, and nature of climate-health research conducted in North America. We used a scoping review methodology to systematically identify literature and map publication trends. A search string was used to search five academic databases. Two independent reviewers first screened titles and abstracts, and then the full texts of articles for relevance. Research articles and reviews using systematic methods published since 2013 were eligible for inclusion, and no language restrictions were applied. To be included, articles had to measure and link climatic variables or hazards to health outcomes in North America. Relevant articles were analysed using descriptive statistics to explore publication trends. The number of climate-health articles has significantly increased since the last IPCC Assessment Report. Published research about climate change impacts, heat-related mortality and morbidity, and respiratory illness taking place in urban centres and in the USA continue to dominate the North American climate-health literature, reflected by the high proportion of articles published. Important research gaps on previously neglected climate-sensitive health outcomes, however, are beginning to be filled, including climate change impacts on mental health, nutrition, and foodborne disease. We also observed progress in research that included future projections of climate-health risks; however, projection research is still relatively nascent and under-studied for many climate-sensitive health outcomes in North America, and would benefit from considering social and demographic variables in models. Important research disparities in geographical coverage were noted, including research gaps in Canada and Mexico, and in rural and remote regions. Overall, these publication trends suggest an improved understanding of exposure-response relationships and future projections of climate-health risks for many climate-sensitive health outcomes in North America, which is promising and provides an evidence-base to inform the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. Despite these advancements and considering the urgent policy and practice implications, more research is needed to deepen our understanding of climate-sensitive health outcomes, as well as examine new arising issues that have limited evidence-bases. In particular, transdisciplinary and cross-sector research, that includes the social sciences, examining current and future climate-health adaptation, mitigation, and the adaptation-mitigation nexus should become a top priority for research, given the urgent need for this evidence to inform climate change policies, actions, and interventions.

Estimating aboveground net biomass change for tropical and subtropical forests: Refinement of IPCC default rates using forest plot data.

As countries advance in greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting for climate change mitigation, consistent estimates of aboveground net biomass change (∆AGB) are needed. Countries with limited forest monitoring capabilities in the tropics and subtropics rely on IPCC 2006 default ∆AGB rates, which are values per ecological zone, per continent. Similarly, research into forest biomass change at a large scale also makes use of these rates. IPCC 2006 default rates come from a handful of studies, provide no uncertainty indications and do not distinguish between older secondary forests and old-growth forests. As part of the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, we incorporate ∆AGB data available from 2006 onwards, comprising 176 chronosequences in secondary forests and 536 permanent plots in old-growth and managed/logged forests located in 42 countries in Africa, North and South America and Asia. We generated ∆AGB rate estimates for younger secondary forests (≤20 years), older secondary forests (>20 years and up to 100 years) and old-growth forests, and accounted for uncertainties in our estimates. In tropical rainforests, for which data availability was the highest, our ∆AGB rate estimates ranged from 3.4 (Asia) to 7.6 (Africa) Mg ha-1  year-1 in younger secondary forests, from 2.3 (North and South America) to 3.5 (Africa) Mg ha-1  year-1 in older secondary forests, and 0.7 (Asia) to 1.3 (Africa) Mg ha-1  year-1 in old-growth forests. We provide a rigorous and traceable refinement of the IPCC 2006 default rates in tropical and subtropical ecological zones, and identify which areas require more research on ∆AGB. In this respect, this study should be considered as an important step towards quantifying the role of tropical and subtropical forests as carbon sinks with higher accuracy; our new rates can be used for large-scale GHG accounting by governmental bodies, nongovernmental organizations and in scientific research.

Climate change in layer poultry farming: impact of heat waves in region of Bastos, Brazil

The region around the municipality of Bastos, state of São Paulo, accounted for about 7% of Brazilian egg production in 2015. In 2012, it experienced a heat wave that resulted in the death of approximately 500,000 hens, according to information released at the time. Considering the impact of heat waves on layer mortality, the objective of this study was to analyze how heat waves impact the layer farming in the region of Bastos, considering the climate change scenarios forecasted by the IPCC for the next years. This study was conducted in three stages: i) analysis of the IPCC reports to understand climate change scenarios; ii) analysis of historical temperature data in the region of Bastos; iii) analysis of how climate change, through heat waves, may impact layer mortality in this region. All the IPCC scenarios indicate that both average temperature and the number of extreme events, such as heat waves, are expected to increase. Historical data showed that since the mid-1980s, maximum temperature has increased, as well as the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves. The association of layer mortality due to heat waves with the IPCC climate change forecasts for that region indicates a trend of increasing layer mortality in egg production operations which sheds are not equipped with air conditioning.(AU)

Climate change in layer poultry farming: impact of heat waves in region of Bastos, Brazil

The region around the municipality of Bastos, state of São Paulo, accounted for about 7% of Brazilian egg production in 2015. In 2012, it experienced a heat wave that resulted in the death of approximately 500,000 hens, according to information released at the time. Considering the impact of heat waves on layer mortality, the objective of this study was to analyze how heat waves impact the layer farming in the region of Bastos, considering the climate change scenarios forecasted by the IPCC for the next years. This study was conducted in three stages: i) analysis of the IPCC reports to understand climate change scenarios; ii) analysis of historical temperature data in the region of Bastos; iii) analysis of how climate change, through heat waves, may impact layer mortality in this region. All the IPCC scenarios indicate that both average temperature and the number of extreme events, such as heat waves, are expected to increase. Historical data showed that since the mid-1980s, maximum temperature has increased, as well as the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves. The association of layer mortality due to heat waves with the IPCC climate change forecasts for that region indicates a trend of increasing layer mortality in egg production operations which sheds are not equipped with air conditioning.

Greenhouse gas emission intensity from Indonesian livestock sector

The objectives of this study were to examine the trends of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity (EI) from livestock sector in Indonesia, and also to suggest mitigation measures for the emissions. GHG emissions were calculated by using 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Guideline (2006 IPCC GL) Tier 1 method based on carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq) with default values except for Indonesian livestock population. GHG EI (emissions intensity) of livestock sector in Indonesia was calculated by dividing total GHG emissions by Indonesian meat production from livestock commodities. In 2015, beef cattle contributed 66.99% from total GHG emissions from livestock sector, followed by goat (8.38%), sheep (7.40%), buffalo (6.89%), swine (5.03%), broiler chicken (3.80%), and horse (0.72%). However, in 2015, buffalo showed the highest EI (kgCO2eq/kg meat) by 6.44, followed by beef cattle (5.88), sheep (4.69), goat (4.07), swine (3.50), horse (3.09), and broiler chicken (0.38). EIs from swine, goat, sheep, broiler chicken, horse, beef cattle, and buffalo decreased by 60.77%, 58.59%, 46.68%, 21.30%, 18.15%, 19.94%, and 13.13% from 2000 to 2015, respectively. Results of GHG emissions and GHG EIs from each livestock category in Indonesia shown the improvement direction in order to mitigate GHG emission. Therefore, Indonesian government should focus on the beef cattle and buffalo that are a high contribution on GHG emissions and high EI by increasing the efficiency of livestock rearing management such as livestock health, genetic, diets, and environment.(AU)

Greenhouse gas emission intensity from Indonesian livestock sector

The objectives of this study were to examine the trends of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity (EI) from livestock sector in Indonesia, and also to suggest mitigation measures for the emissions. GHG emissions were calculated by using 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Guideline (2006 IPCC GL) Tier 1 method based on carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq) with default values except for Indonesian livestock population. GHG EI (emissions intensity) of livestock sector in Indonesia was calculated by dividing total GHG emissions by Indonesian meat production from livestock commodities. In 2015, beef cattle contributed 66.99% from total GHG emissions from livestock sector, followed by goat (8.38%), sheep (7.40%), buffalo (6.89%), swine (5.03%), broiler chicken (3.80%), and horse (0.72%). However, in 2015, buffalo showed the highest EI (kgCO2eq/kg meat) by 6.44, followed by beef cattle (5.88), sheep (4.69), goat (4.07), swine (3.50), horse (3.09), and broiler chicken (0.38). EIs from swine, goat, sheep, broiler chicken, horse, beef cattle, and buffalo decreased by 60.77%, 58.59%, 46.68%, 21.30%, 18.15%, 19.94%, and 13.13% from 2000 to 2015, respectively. Results of GHG emissions and GHG EIs from each livestock category in Indonesia shown the improvement direction in order to mitigate GHG emission. Therefore, Indonesian government should focus on the beef cattle and buffalo that are a high contribution on GHG emissions and high EI by increasing the efficiency of livestock rearing management such as livestock health, genetic, diets, and environment.

Soil carbon inventory to quantify the impact of land use change to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and ecosystem services.

Currently the land use and land use change (LULUC) emits 1.3 ±â€¯0.5 Pg carbon (C) year-1, equivalent to 8% of the global annual emissions. The objectives of this study were to quantify (1) the impact of LULUC on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in a subtropical region and (2) the role of conservation agriculture to mitigate GHG emissions promoting ecosystem services. We developed a detailed IPCC Tier 2 GHG inventory for the Campos Gerais region of southern Brazil that has large cropland area under long-term conservation agriculture with high crop yields. The inventory accounted for historical and current emissions from fossil fuel combustion, LULUC and other minor sources. We used Century model to simulate the adoption of conservation best management practices, to all croplands in the region from 2017 to 2117. Our results showed historical (1930-2017) GHG emissions of 412 Tg C, in which LULUC contributes 91% (376 ±â€¯130 Tg C), the uncertainties ranged between 13 and 36%. Between 1930 and 1985 LULUC was a major source of GHG emission, however from 1985 to 2015 fossil fuel combustion became the primary source of GHG emission. Forestry sequestered 52 ±â€¯24 Tg C in 0.6 Mha in a period of 47 years (1.8 Tg C Mha-1 year-1) and no-till sequestered 30.4 ±â€¯24 Tg C in 2 Mha in a period of 32 years (0.5 Tg C Mha-1 year-1) being the principal GHG mitigating activities in the study area. The model predictions showed that best management practices have the potential to mitigate 13 years of regional emissions (330 Tg C in 100 years) or 105 years of agriculture, forestry and livestock emissions (40 Tg C in 100 years) making the agriculture sector a net carbon (C) sink and promoting ecosystem services.

The effect of climate change on the distribution of a tropical zoanthid (Palythoa caribaeorum) and its ecological implications.

Palythoa caribaeorum is a zoanthid often dominant in shallow rocky environments along the west coast of the Atlantic Ocean, from the tropics to the subtropics. This species has high environmental tolerance and is a good space competitor in reef environments. Considering current and future scenarios in the global climate regime, this study aimed to model and analyze the distribution of P. caribaeorum, generating maps of potential distribution for the present and the year 2100. The distribution was modeled using maximum entropy (Maxent) based on 327 occurrence sites retrieved from the literature. Calcite concentration, maximum chlorophyll-a concentration, salinity, pH, and temperature range yielded a model with the smallest Akaike information criterion (2649.8), and were used in the present and future distribution model. Data from the HadGEM2-ES climate model were used to generate the projections for the year 2100. The present distribution of P. caribaeorum shows that parts of the Brazilian coast, Caribbean Sea, and Florida are suitable regions for the species, as they are characterized by high salinity and pH and small temperature variation. An expansion of the species' distribution was forecast northward under mild climate scenarios, while a decrease of suitable areas was forecast in the south. In the climate scenario with the most intense changes, P. caribaeorum would lose one-half of its suitable habitats, including the northernmost and southernmost areas of its distribution. The Caribbean Sea and northeastern Brazil, as well as other places under the influence of coastal upwellings, may serve as potential havens for this species.

Differential survivorship of congeneric ornamental fishes under forecasted climate changes are related to anaerobic potential

Abstract Two Amazonian closely related tetras - cardinal Paracheirodon axelrodi and green neon P. simulans - were artificially acclimatized to environmental chambers mimicking future climate change scenarios (mild, moderate and extreme), using a microcosm facility. P. simulans survived (100%) to all scenarios after 30 days exposure, while P. axelrodi presented decreasing survival percentages according to environmental severity. These differences may be the reflection of distinct natural acclimatization to microhabitats between the species, which differ in thermal conditions. Survival responses might be related to differences in relative gene expression of lactate dehydrogenase (Ldh), suggesting that P. axelrodi anaerobic potential is lower or non-existent compared to P. simulans, not tolerating long-term thermal challenges. Accordingly, increases in temperature and in CO2 levels caused increases in energy demand and resulted in activation of the anaerobic pathway, as demonstrated by the higher enzyme levels measured in head and tail portions of both species. Sustained anaerobic glycolysis is possible when fish live in challenging environments (low oxygen or high temperature). Our results clearly show that P. simulans has a larger scope for survival to higher energy demands due to its increased anaerobic potential compared to P. axelrodi.

Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile).

Climate change scenarios are computed on a large scale, not accounting for local variations presented in historical data and related to human scale. Based on historical records, we validate a baseline (1962-1990) and correct the bias of A2 and B2 regional projections for the end of twenty-first century (2070-2100) issued from a high resolution dynamical downscaled (using PRECIS mesoscale model, hereinafter DGF-PRECIS) of Hadley GCM from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (TAR). This is performed for the Araucanía Region (Chile; 37°-40°S and 71°-74°W) using two different bias correction methodologies. Next, we study high-resolution precipitations to find monthly patterns such as seasonal variations, rainfall months, and the geographical effect on these two scenarios. Finally, we compare the TAR projections with those from the recent Assessment Report 5 (AR5) to find regional precipitation patterns and update the Chilean `projection. To show the effects of climate change projections, we compute the rainfall climatology for the Araucanía Region, including the impact of ENSO cycles (El Niño and La Niña events). The corrected climate projection from the high-resolution dynamical downscaled model of the TAR database (DGF-PRECIS) show annual precipitation decreases: B2 (-19.19 %, -287 ± 42 mm) and A2 (-43.38 %, -655 ± 27.4 mm per year. Furthermore, both projections increase the probability of lower rainfall months (lower than 100 mm per month) to 64.2 and 72.5 % for B2 and A2, respectively.

Greenhouse gas mitigation options in Brazil for land-use change, livestock and agriculture

National inventories of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (implementation of the National Communications) are organized according to five main sectors, namely: Energy, Industrial Processes, Agriculture, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LUCF) and Waste. The objective of this study was to review and calculate the potential of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in Brazil for the Agricultural and LUCF. The first step consisted in an analysis of Brazilian official and unofficial documents related to climate change and mitigation policies. Secondly, business as usual (BAU) and mitigation scenarios were elaborated for the 2010-2020 timeframe, and calculations of the corresponding associated GHG emissions and removals were performed. Additionally, two complementary approaches were used to point out and quantify the main mitigation options: a) following the IPCC 1996 guidelines and b) based on EX-ACT. Brazilian authorities announced that the country will target a reduction in its GHG between 36.1 and 38.9% from projected 2020 levels. This is a positive stand that should also be adopted by other developing countries. To reach this government goal, agriculture and livestock sectors must contribute with an emission reduction of 133 to 166 Mt CO2-eq. This seems to be reachable when confronted to our mitigation option values, which are in between the range of 178.3 to 445 Mt CO2-eq. Government investments on agriculture are necessary to minimize the efforts from the sectors to reach their targets.

Inventários nacionais acerca de emissões de gases do efeito estufa (GEE) (refinamentos das Comunicações Nacionais) são organizadas de acordo com cinco principais setores, a saber: Energia, Processos Industriais, Agropecuária, Mudanças do Uso da Terra e Florestas e Tratamento de Resíduos. O objetivo dessa revisão foi calcular o potencial das estratégias de mitigação de GEE no Brasil para agropecuária e mudança de uso da terra e florestas. A primeira etapa consistiu na análise de documentos oficiais e não-oficiais do Brasil relacionados a mudanças climáticas e políticas de mitigação. O cenário atual, sem adoção de ações mitigadoras (BAU), e os cenários de mitigação foram elaborados para o período 2010-2020. Efetuaram-se os cálculos associados às emissões e remoções de GEE. Adicionalmente, duas estratégias foram utilizadas para destacar e quantificar as principais opções de mitigação: a) seguindo metodologia do IPCC 1996 e b) baseando-se no EX-ACT. Autoridades brasileiras anunciaram que o país buscará reduzir sua taxa de emissão de GEE em 36.1 a 38.9% em relação a 2020. Este é um posicionamento positivo que deve ser adotado por outros países em desenvolvimento. Para alcançar essa meta governamental, os setores agricultura e pecuária devem contribuir reduzindo a emissão em 133 a 166 Mt CO2-eq. Tal redução parece ser atingível quando confrontada com os valores do presente trabalho sobre opções de mitigação os quais estão entre 178,3 e 445 Mt CO2-eq. Investimentos governamentais nos setores agrícola, pecuária e silvicultura são necessários para minimizar os esforços para atingir as metas de redução de emissão pelos outros setores do país.

Greenhouse gas mitigation options in Brazil for land-use change, livestock and agriculture

National inventories of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (implementation of the National Communications) are organized according to five main sectors, namely: Energy, Industrial Processes, Agriculture, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LUCF) and Waste. The objective of this study was to review and calculate the potential of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in Brazil for the Agricultural and LUCF. The first step consisted in an analysis of Brazilian official and unofficial documents related to climate change and mitigation policies. Secondly, business as usual (BAU) and mitigation scenarios were elaborated for the 2010-2020 timeframe, and calculations of the corresponding associated GHG emissions and removals were performed. Additionally, two complementary approaches were used to point out and quantify the main mitigation options: a) following the IPCC 1996 guidelines and b) based on EX-ACT. Brazilian authorities announced that the country will target a reduction in its GHG between 36.1 and 38.9% from projected 2020 levels. This is a positive stand that should also be adopted by other developing countries. To reach this government goal, agriculture and livestock sectors must contribute with an emission reduction of 133 to 166 Mt CO2-eq. This seems to be reachable when confronted to our mitigation option values, which are in between the range of 178.3 to 445 Mt CO2-eq. Government investments on agriculture are necessary to minimize the efforts from the sectors to reach their targets.

Inventários nacionais acerca de emissões de gases do efeito estufa (GEE) (refinamentos das Comunicações Nacionais) são organizadas de acordo com cinco principais setores, a saber: Energia, Processos Industriais, Agropecuária, Mudanças do Uso da Terra e Florestas e Tratamento de Resíduos. O objetivo dessa revisão foi calcular o potencial das estratégias de mitigação de GEE no Brasil para agropecuária e mudança de uso da terra e florestas. A primeira etapa consistiu na análise de documentos oficiais e não-oficiais do Brasil relacionados a mudanças climáticas e políticas de mitigação. O cenário atual, sem adoção de ações mitigadoras (BAU), e os cenários de mitigação foram elaborados para o período 2010-2020. Efetuaram-se os cálculos associados às emissões e remoções de GEE. Adicionalmente, duas estratégias foram utilizadas para destacar e quantificar as principais opções de mitigação: a) seguindo metodologia do IPCC 1996 e b) baseando-se no EX-ACT. Autoridades brasileiras anunciaram que o país buscará reduzir sua taxa de emissão de GEE em 36.1 a 38.9% em relação a 2020. Este é um posicionamento positivo que deve ser adotado por outros países em desenvolvimento. Para alcançar essa meta governamental, os setores agricultura e pecuária devem contribuir reduzindo a emissão em 133 a 166 Mt CO2-eq. Tal redução parece ser atingível quando confrontada com os valores do presente trabalho sobre opções de mitigação os quais estão entre 178,3 e 445 Mt CO2-eq. Investimentos governamentais nos setores agrícola, pecuária e silvicultura são necessários para minimizar os esforços para atingir as metas de redução de emissão pelos outros setores do país.