Forecasting of cohort fertility by educational level in countries with limited data availability: The case of Brazil.

The Brazilian period total fertility rate (PTFR) dropped to 1.8 in 2010 (1.5 among those with high education). Due to shifts in fertility timing, the PTFR may provide a misleading picture of fertility levels. The consequences of these changes for the cohort total fertility rate (CTFR)-a measure free from tempo distortions-and for educational differences in completed fertility remain unknown. Due to data limitations, CTFR forecasts in low- and middle-income countries are rare. We use Brazilian censuses to reconstruct fertility rates indirectly and forecast the CTFR for all women and by educational level. Four forecasting methods indicate that the CTFR is unlikely to fall to the level of the PTFR. Educational differences in the CTFR are likely to be stark, at 0.7-0.9, larger than in many high-income countries with comparable CTFRs. We show how the CTFR can be forecasted in settings with limited data and call for more research on educational differences in completed fertility in low- and middle-income countries.

Sociodemographic patterns of household water-use costs in Puerto Rico.

Variability of household water-use costs across different sociodemographic groups in Puerto Rico is evaluated using census microdata from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS). Multivariate analyses such as multiple linear regression (MLR) and factor analysis (FA) are used to classify, extract and interpret the household water-use costs. The FA results suggest two principal varifactors in explaining the variability of household water-use costs (64% in 2000 and 50% in 2010), which are grouped into a soft coefficient (social, economic and demographic characteristics of household residents, i.e., age, size, income, education) and a hard coefficient (dwelling conditions, i.e., number of rooms, units in the building, building age). The demographic profile of a high water-use household in Puerto Rico tends to be that of renters, people who live in larger or older buildings, people living in metro areas, or those with higher education level and higher income. The findings and discussions from this study will help decision makers to plan holistic and integrated water management to achieve water sustainability.

Do Rainfall Deficits Predict U.S.-bound Migration from Rural Mexico? Evidence from the Mexican Census.

Environmental and climatic changes have shaped human mobility for thousands of years and research on the migration-environment connection has proliferated in the past several years. Even so, little work has focused on Latin America or on international movement. Given rural Mexico's dependency on primary sector activities involving various natural resources, and the existence of well-established transnational migrant networks, we investigate the association between rainfall patterns and U.S.-bound migration from rural locales, a topic of increasing policy relevance. The New Economics of Labor Migration (NELM) theory provides background, positing that migration represents a household-level risk management strategy. We use data from the year 2000 Mexican census for rural localities and socioeconomic and state-level precipitation data provided by the Mexican National Institute for Statistics and Geography. Multilevel models assess the impact of rainfall change on household-level international out-migration while controlling for relevant sociodemographic and economic factors. A decrease in precipitation is significantly associated with U.S.-bound migration, but only for dry Mexican states. This finding suggests that programs and policies aimed at reducing Mexico-U.S. migration should seek to diminish the climate/weather vulnerability of rural Mexican households, for example by supporting sustainable irrigation systems and subsidizing drought-resistant crops.