The spike of acute angle closure after the epidemic downgrade of COVID-19 management: a hospital-based comparative study from China.

PURPOSE: To analyse and compare the clinical characteristics and treatment outcomes of patients with acute angle closure (AAC) who presented before the COVID-19 pandemic, during the COVID-19 management and after their downgrading. METHODS: Consecutive AAC patients were recruited from our hospital and divided into three groups: those treated before the COVID-19 pandemic (Group1), during the COVID-19 management (Group2) and after the management downgrade (Group3). The demographic variables, clinical characteristics, treatment methods and therapeutic outcomes of the groups were compared. RESULTS: When compared to Groups1 and 2, Group3 showed a significantly higher incidence of AAC (0.27%, P < 0.001), a longer time from symptoms to treatment (TST; 160.88 ± 137.05 h, P = 0.031) and worse uncorrected visual acuity (P = 0.009) at presentation. In Group3, 68.9% had a history of COVID-19 and 28.5% developed ocular symptoms of AAC after taking medication for COVID-19 symptoms. The average time from the onset of COVID-19 to the appearance of eye symptoms was 3.21 ± 4.00 days. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 has had a multifaceted impact on the incidence of AAC. Therefore, it is crucial to strengthen health education on glaucoma, especially AAC. The prevention and timely treatment of AAC should be emphasised to combat global blindness.

The Impact of Human Cystic Echinococcosis in the Central Asian Region, 1990-2019.

Objective: This research aims to update knowledge on the regional and national sickness burden attributable to cystic echinococcosis (CE) from 1990 to 2019, as well as epidemiology and disease control, with a particular emphasis on the People's Central Asian Regions. Methods: We calculated the morbidity, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years at the global, regional, and national levels for CE in all central Asian countries from 1990 to 2019, and we analyzed the association between GDP per capita and the disease burden of CE. Results: In 2019, the three greatest numbers of CE cases were recorded in Kazakhstan [23986; 95% uncertainty interval (UI); 19796; 28908]; Uzbekistan (41079; 18351; 76048); and Tajikistan (10887; 4891; 20170) among all 9 countries. The three countries with the greatest ASIR of CE were estimated to be Kazakhstan (127.56; 95% UI: 105.34-153.8), Uzbekistan (123.53; 95% UI: 58.65-219.16), and Tajikistan (121.88; 58.57-213.93). Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan had the biggest increases (125%, 97%, and 83%, respectively) in the number of incident cases of CE, whereas Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Armenia saw the largest decreases (45%, 8%, and 3%, respectively). Conclusion: To reduce the illness burden caused by CE, our findings may help public health professionals and policymakers design cost-benefit initiatives. To lessen the impact of CE on society, it is suggested that more money be given to the region's most endemic nations. Echinococcosis, cystic, negative health effects, life-years lost due to disability, rate of occurrence as a function of age, rate of death as a function of age.

Trends in hip fracture rates in spain from 2001 to 2018.

The present study includes the longest period of analysis with the highest number of hip fracture episodes (756,308) described in the literature for Spain. We found that the age-adjusted rates progressively decreased from 2005 to 2018. We believe that this is significant because it may mean that measures such as prevention and treatment of osteoporosis, or programs promoting healthy lifestyles, have had a positive impact on hip fracture rates. PURPOSE: To describe the evolution of cases and rates of hip fracture (HF) in patients 65 years or older in Spain from 2001 to 2018 and examine trends in adjusted rates. METHODS: Retrospective, observational study including patients ≥65 years with acute HF. Data from 2001 to 2018 were obtained from the Spanish National Record of the Minimum Basic Data Set of the Ministry of Health. We analysed cases of HF, crude incidence and age-adjusted rates by sex, length of hospital stay (LOS) and in-hospital mortality, and used joinpoint regression analysis to explore temporal trends. RESULTS: We identified 756,308 HF cases. Mean age increased 2.5 years, LOS decreased 4.5 days and in-hospital mortality was 5.5-6.5%. Cases of HF increased by 49%. Crude rate per 100,000 was 533.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 532.1-534.5), increasing 14.0% (95%CI, 13.7-14.2). Age-adjusted HF incidence rate increased by 6.9% from 2001 (535.7; 95%CI, 529.9-541.5) to 2005 (572.4; 95%CI, 566.7-578.2), then decreased by 13.3% until 2017 (496.1, 95%CI, 491.7-500.6). Joinpoint regression analysis indicated a progressive increase in age-adjusted incidence rates of 1.9% per year from 2001 to 2005 and a progressive decrease of -1.1% per year from 2005 to 2018. A similar pattern was identified in both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: Crude incidence rates of HF in Spain in persons ≥65 years from 2001 to 2018 have gradually increased. Age-adjusted rates show a significant increase from 2001 to 2005 and a progressive decrease from 2005 to 2018.

Increasing trend of childhood type 1 diabetes incidence: 20-year observation from Greater Poland Province, Poland.

AIM: Type 1 diabetes is one of the fastest-growing chronic health conditions. Estimating the incidence rate of childhood type 1 diabetes will allow to aid in adequate planning of health care resources. The study's aim was to assess the incidence rate of type 1 diabetes in children below 15 years of age from Greater Poland (Poland) between 2006 and 2018, and then to compare obtained data to records collected between 1998 and 2003 in pediatric population aged 0-14 years from the same area. METHODS: In this cohort study covering the period from January 1998 to December 2018, data were collected for children and adolescents below 14 years of age with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes living in Greater Poland. The overall population size was taken from the Statistical Office of Poland. Total, sex-, and age-specific incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated for each calendar year. RESULTS: Over a 20-year period, the incidence rate of type 1 diabetes in children aged 0-14 years rose around 3.6-fold, from 8.4/100,000 in 1998 to 30.8/100,000 in 2018, with the peak incidence recorded in last year of the study. A clear male predominance of type 1 diabetes was seen in all ages. The rate of type 1 diabetes incidence growth was comparable between all age groups, while the highest incidence rate was mostly observed in children aged 5-9 and 10-14 years. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of type 1 diabetes in children aged 0-14 years is rapidly increasing in Greater Poland.

Higher risk of incident diabetes among patients with primary hyperparathyroidism.

OBJECTIVES: There is relatively scarce data regarding the association between primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) and incident diabetes in large population-based longitudinal studies. We aimed to evaluate the risk of incident diabetes in individuals with and without PHPT and investigate the association between serum calcium concentrations and the risk of incident diabetes in patients with PHPT. METHODS: We included 2749 PHPT patients and 13,745 age, sex and index year matched non-PHPT individuals during 2000-2019. We used Cox regression models to compare the risk of incident diabetes in individuals with and without PHPT, and the risk of incident diabetes in PHPT patients with serum calcium concentration above and below the median value. The association between serum calcium concentrations and the risk of incident diabetes was examined by restricted cubic spline analyses in patients with PHPT. RESULTS: During a median follow-up time of 5.17 years (IQR 2.17, 9.58), 433 patients (15.75%) with PHPT and 2110 individuals (15.35%) without PHPT developed diabetes, respectively. Patients with PHPT had a higher incidence rate of diabetes compared to non-PHPT individuals (27.60 [95% CI 25.00, 30.30] vs. 23.90 [95% CI 22.80, 24.90] per 1000 person-years, log-rank test p = .007]. Crude Cox regression model showed PHPT was associated with a 15% higher risk of incident diabetes (HR 1.15, 95%CI 1.04, 1.28). In patients with PHPT, a 44% higher risk of incident diabetes was found in patients with serum calcium concentrations above the median value (2.63 mmol/L), compared to those below the median value (HR 1.44, 95%CI 1.08, 1.90). Restricted cubic spline analyses confirmed a positive linear association between serum calcium concentrations and the risk of incident diabetes in those with PHPT (p-value for nonlinear = .751) CONCLUSIONS: Patients with PHPT had a higher risk of incident diabetes compared to non-PHPT individuals. A positive linear association was found between serum calcium concentrations and the risk of incident diabetes in patients with PHPT.

The global burden of breast cancer in women from 1990 to 2030: assessment and projection based on the global burden of disease study 2019.

Background and aim: This study aims to analyze the worldwide prevalence, mortality rates, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to breast cancer in women between 1990 and 2019. Additionally, it seeks to forecast the future trends of these indicators related to the burden of breast cancer in women from 2020 to 2030. Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 was analyzed to determine the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of DALYs due to breast cancer in women across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Socio-economic development levels of countries and regions were assessed using Socio-demographic Indexes, and trends in the burden of breast cancer in women worldwide from 2020 to 2030 were projected using generalized additive models (GAMs). Results: The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the ASIR breast cancer in women globally was 0.36 from 1990 to 2019 and is expected to increase to 0.44 from 2020 to 2030. In 2019, the ASIR of breast cancer in women worldwide was 45.86 and is projected to reach 48.09 by 2030. The burden of breast cancer in women generally rises with age, with the highest burden expected in the 45-49 age group from 2020 to 2030. The fastest increase in burden is anticipated in Central sub-Saharan Africa (EAPC in the age-standardized death rate: 1.62, EAPC in the age-standardized DALY rate: 1.52), with the Solomon Islands (EAPC in the ASIR: 7.25) and China (EAPC in the ASIR: 2.83) projected to experience significant increases. Furthermore, a strong positive correlation was found between the ASIR breast cancer in women globally in 1990 and the projected rates for 2030 (r = 0.62). Conclusion: The anticipated increase in the ASIR of breast cancer in women globally by 2030 highlights the importance of focusing on women aged 45-49 in Central sub-Saharan Africa, Oceania, the Solomon Islands, and China. Initiatives such as breast cancer information registries, raising awareness of risk factors and incidence, and implementing universal screening programs and diagnostic tests are essential in reducing the burden of breast cancer and its associated morbidity and mortality.

Factors influencing stunted growth in children: A study in Bandung regency focusing on a deworming program.

The prevalence of neglected tropical diseases, specifically those caused by soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) and other parasites that infest the intestine as part of their life cycle, remains a problem in Indonesia. We assessed the effects of deworming programs and socioeconomic and ecological factors on the incidence rate of infections with STHs and other parasites in an urban area of the Bandung Regency. We recruited 361 children with stunted growth who met the inclusion criteria, and 48 of those children were at high risk of STH infection. The study was conducted between September 2020 and September 2021. We collected possible socioeconomic factors influencing the incidence rate of infections. We found the incidence rate of STH infections among the children with stunted growth to be 3.6%. We confirmed infections with Cyclospora and Cryptosporidium after a Ziehl-Nieelsen stool smear examination in two of the 48 children at risk of infection. We found 43.75% of the children had short stature and weight below the normal limits, while stunting and severe stunting were associated with Ascaris lumbricoides infection (44.70%, p = 0.035). Parents of children with stunted and severely stunted growth were more likely to have a low education level, lack knowledge about deworming program, and to be earning a low income. The mother's occupation had a particularly strong influence on the severity of the stunting (89.58%, p = 0.012). Our results show that deworming programs can affect the growth and development of children and that socioeconomic and ecological factors also play a role.

Incidence and patterns of lymph node metastases in head and neck rhabdomyosarcoma: One-institution study.

INTRODUCTION: Head and neck rhabdomyosarcoma (HNRMS) is an aggressive malignant soft tissue tumor that easily develops lymph node metastasis (LNM) and distant metastasis. No literature investigates the pattern of LNM in HNRMS. METHODS: Ninety-five consecutive patients with HNRMS newly diagnosed at one institution between November 2011 and July 2023 were retrospectively reviewed. All the patients underwent head and neck contrast-enhanced MRI and/or CT, PET-CT if necessary. The associations between LNMs and clinical characteristics and histopathological parameters were discovered. RESULTS: 44.2% of patients had evidence of LNM at diagnosis, and the most common LNM occurred in the ipsilateral retropharyngeal space. The primary tumor metastasizes to the retropharyngeal space, and then next to level II is the most common LN drainage basin. In multivariate analysis, only distant metastasis determines the prognosis, other than LN status. CONCLUSIONS: LNM has a high incidence in HNRMS and rarely causes contralateral metastasis for localized lesions or skip metastasis.

Cervical cancer incidence in Denmark: Disentangling determinants of time trend.

Cervical cancer is a preventable disease. Nevertheless, stagnation has been seen in incidence rates also in countries with well-functioning healthcare. On this basis, we investigated associations between control interventions and changes in cervical cancer incidence in Denmark from 2009 to 2022. Data on human papillomavirus (HPV)-vaccination were retrieved from Staten's Serum Institute; on screening recommendations from Danish Health Authority, on screening performance from Danish Quality Database for Cervical Screening; and on cervical cancer incidence from Nordcan and Danish Cancer Register. We reported coverage with HPV vaccination (1+ dose); coverage with cervical cell samples; number of women with primary HPV tests; proportion of non-normal cell samples without timely follow-up; number of conizations; and cervical cancer incidence rates. In 2022, all women aged ≤29 had been offered childhood HPV vaccination with coverage of 80%-90%. By 2020-2022, the cervical cancer incidence rate in women aged 20-29 was 3 per 100,000; at level of disease elimination. In 2017, women aged 70+ were offered a one-time HPV screening, and by 2020-2022, the old-age peak in cervical cancer incidence had largely disappeared. From 2009 to 2022, proportion of non-normal cell samples without timely follow-up decreased from 20% to 10%, and conventional cytology was largely replaced by SurePath liquid-based cytology; these factors could explain the steady decrease in cervical cancer incidence rate. Implementation of primary HPV screening in women aged 30-59 in 2021 was reflected in a, probably temporary, increase in the 2022 cervical cancer incidence rate. In conclusion, combined interventions with childhood HPV vaccination; one-time HPV screening of elderly women; and better management of screening broke previous stagnation in cervical cancer incidence rate.

Time to recovery and predictors among admitted preterm neonates in the neonatal intensive care units of public hospitals of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2021.

INTRODUCTION: Ethiopia implemented measures to reduce preterm mortality, and much is currently being done to avoid preterm death, yet preterm death remains the top cause of infant death. As a result, evaluating median time of recovery and determinants will provide information to planners and policymakers to design strategies to improve preterm survival. METHODS: Hospital-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted in four selected public hospitals of Addis Ababa from September 2018 to August 2021. Data were collected using a pretested structured questionnaire. Epi-data 4.6 and STATA Version 16 were used for data entry and analysis. Kaplan-Meier survival curve, log-rank test, and median time were computed. To find predictors of time to recovery, a multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was fitted, and variables with a p-value less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant. RESULTS: A total of 466 preterm babies were included in the study of which 261 (56.1%) preterm neonates survived and were discharged from NICUs. The median time to recovery was 10 days (95% CI: 9-12). Low birth weight (Adjusted hazard-ratio [AHR]: 1.91, 95% CI: 1.2-3.06), normal birth weight (AHR: 2.09, 95% CI: 1.16-3.76), late preterm (AHR: 1.91, 95% CI: 1.02-3.55), no hospital-acquired infection (AHR: 2.19, 95% CI: 1.36-3.5), no thrombocytopenia (AHR: 1.96, 95% CI: 1.27-3.02), continuous positive airway pressure (AHR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.48-0.91), and kangaroo mother care (AHR: 2.04, 95% CI: 1.48-2.81) were found to be independent predictors of time to recovery of preterm babies. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: The recovery rate was found relatively low. Several predictors of preterm recovery time were discovered in the study. The majority of predictors were preventable or treatable. Therefore, emphasis should be given towards prevention and early anticipation, and management of these predictors. Studies to assess the quality of care and cause of low survival rate of preterm infants are recommended.

The incidence of stroke and contribution of risk factors for stroke in high-risk stroke population in southwestern China.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence of stroke and determine the role that risk factors play in the high-risk stroke populace in southwest China. METHODS: This research employed a prospective cohort design that focused on the community. Eight communities in southwest China were selected randomly for this study. The residents aged 40 years and older who volunteered to participate were surveyed through face-to-face interviews. Those with a history of stroke or at least three of the eight stroke-related risk factors were categorized as the high-risk stroke population. A total of 2698 high-risk individuals were included in the study after a 4.7-year follow-up period. The incidence of stroke and the association between risk variables and stroke occurrence were estimated. RESULTS: During 4.7-year follow-up, the incidence of total stroke, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke in high-risk stroke population were 5.0 %, 4.4 % and 0.9 % respectively. It should be noted that some participants experienced both cerebral infarction and cerebral hemorrhage during the follow-up period. The multivariate analytic model revealed that a personal history of stroke (OR=3.397, 95 % CI 2.365-4.878, p<.001) was substantially linked with an elevated risk of overall stroke. This correlation remained consistent for both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed a high prevalence and incidence of stroke among a high-risk group in southwestern China. Furthermore, it demonstrated that individuals with a personal history of stroke are at an elevated risk of future stroke, suggesting the need for additional precautions in this population.

Noteworthy impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on cancer screening: A systematic review.

The sudden onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in January 2020 has affected essential global health services. Cancer-screening services that can reduce cancer mortality are strongly affected. However, the specific role of COVID-19 in cancer screening is not fully understood. This study aimed to assess the efficiency of global cancer screening programs before and during the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote potential cancer-screening strategies for the next pandemic. Electronic searches in PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, and manual searches were performed between January 1, 2020 and March 1, 2023. Cohort studies that reported the number of participants who underwent cancer screening before and during the COVID-19 pandemic were included. The methodological quality of the included studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Differences in cancer-screening rates were estimated using the incidence rate ratio (IRR). Fifty-five cohort studies were included in this meta-analysis. The screening rates of colorectal cancer using invasive screening methods (Pooled IRR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.42 to 0.65, p < 0.01), cervical cancer (Pooled IRR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p < 0.01), breast cancer (Pooled IRR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.49 to 0.66, p < 0.01) and prostate cancer (Pooled IRR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.56 to 0.90, p < 0.01) during the COVID-19 pandemic were significantly lower than those before the COVID-19 pandemic. The screening rates of lung cancer (Pooled IRR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.58 to 1.03, p = 0.08) and colorectal cancer using noninvasive screening methods (Pooled IRR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.50 to 1.09, p = 0.13) were reduced with no statistical differences. The subgroup analyses revealed that the reduction in cancer-screening rates varied across economies. Our results suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a noteworthy impact on colorectal, cervical, breast, and prostate cancer screening. Developing innovative cancer-screening technologies is important to promote the efficiency of cancer-screening services in the post-COVID-19 era and prepare for the next pandemic.

Optimal control of a fractional order SEIQR epidemic model with non-monotonic incidence and quarantine class.

During any infectious disease outbreak, effective and timely quarantine of infected individuals, along with preventive measures by the population, is vital for controlling the spread of infection in society. Therefore, this study attempts to provide a mathematically validated approach for managing the epidemic spread by incorporating the Monod-Haldane incidence rate, which accounts for psychological effects, and a saturated quarantine rate as Holling functional type III that considers the limitation in quarantining of infected individuals into the standard Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Quarantine-Recovered (SEIQR) model. The rate of change of each subpopulation is considered as the Caputo form of fractional derivative where the order of derivative represents the memory effects in epidemic transmission dynamics and can enhance the accuracy of disease prediction by considering the experience of individuals with previously encountered. The mathematical study of the model reveals that the solutions are well-posed, ensuring nonnegativity and boundedness within an attractive region. Further, the study identifies two equilibria, namely, disease-free (DFE) and endemic (EE); and stability analysis of equilibria is performed for local as well as global behaviours for the same. The stability behaviours of equilibria mainly depend on the basic reproduction number R0 and its alternative threshold T0 which is computed using the Next-generation matrix method. It is investigated that DFE is locally and globally asymptotic stable when R0<1. Furthermore, we show the existence of EE and investigate that it is locally and globally asymptotic stable using the Routh-Hurwitz criterion and the Lyapunov stability theorem for fractional order systems with R0>1 under certain conditions. This study also addresses a fractional optimal control problem (FOCP) using Pontryagin's maximum principle aiming to minimize the spread of infection with minimal expenditure. This approach involves introducing a time-dependent control measure, u(t), representing the behavioural response of susceptible individuals. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to support the analytical findings using the Adams Bashforth Moulton scheme in MATLAB, providing a comprehensive understanding of the proposed SEIQR model.

A dynamic hybrid model for efficient tuberculosis incidence rate prediction.

Tuberculosis remains a global health challenge, predicting its incidences is crucial for effective planning and intervention strategies. This study combines AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Nonlinear AutoRegressive with exogenous input (NARX) models as an innovative approach for TB incidence rate prediction. The performance of the proposed model (ARIMA-NARX) was evaluated using standard metrics (MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE), and it was refined to achieve the best average predictive accuracies with an MSE: 0.0622, RMSE: 0.0851, MAE: 0.07520, and MAPE: 0.05535 followed by NARX 0.1597, 0.3189, 0.2724, and 0.3366, and ARIMA (2,0,0) 0.7781, 0.5959, 0.6524, and 0.6080 Models. These findings are expected to shed light on the TB incidence rate, providing valuable information to policymakers such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and health professionals. The developed model can potentially serve as a predictive tool for proactive TB control and intervention strategies in the region and the world at large.

Trends in lung cancer incidence in Spain (1990-2019): insights from Global Burden of Diseases data.

BACKGROUND: This study examines lung cancer incidence in Spain (1990-2019) through age-period-cohort (A-P-C) analysis and Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) data, unravelling the complex interplay of age, period, and birth cohort in shaping these trends. METHODS: Utilizing GBD and Spanish population data, the study calculates age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and employs Joinpoint analysis to identify significant trends. A-P-C analysis dissects the individual effects of age, calendar period, and birth cohort on incidence patterns. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, almost 738,000 cases of lung cancer were diagnosed in Spain, with an average annual increase of 1.7%. The ASIR of lung cancer in Spain from 1990 to 2019 showed a sustained upward trend in women (Average Annual Per cent Change: 2.5%, P < 0.05), reaching 23.3 cases per 100,000 in 2019, whilst men experienced a significant decrease in incidence rates (AAPC: -0.6%, P < 0.05), falling to 108.9 in 2019. The male-to-female incidence ratio decreased from 12.2 in 1992 to 4.9 in 2019. Joinpoint analysis identified distinct periods for both sexes, with men showing stability, decline and then a significant decrease, whereas women showed an initial increase followed by a decrease. The longitudinal age curves showed a consistently higher incidence risk in men, peaking in the 80-84 age group. Male cohorts since the 1920s showed a decreasing relative risk, whereas women showed fluctuations in risk over time. CONCLUSION: Lung cancer rates are falling in Spain, especially amongst men, due to lower smoking rates. The gender gap is closing, but prevention targeted at women is needed. Tighter tobacco control and research into other risk factors are essential. Understanding the long-term effects of smoking and early exposure is key to better prevention and treatment in Spain.

Dynamical analysis of a network-based SIR model with saturated incidence rate and nonlinear recovery rate: an edge-compartmental approach.

A new network-based SIR epidemic model with saturated incidence rate and nonlinear recovery rate is proposed. We adopt an edge-compartmental approach to rewrite the system as a degree-edge-mixed model. The explicit formula of the basic reproduction number $ \mathit{\boldsymbol{R_{0}}} $ is obtained by renewal equation and Laplace transformation. We find that $ \mathit{\boldsymbol{R_{0}}} < 1 $ is not enough to ensure global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium, and when $ \mathit{\boldsymbol{R_{0}}} > 1 $, the system can exist multiple endemic equilibria. When the number of hospital beds is small enough, the system will undergo backward bifurcation at $ \mathit{\boldsymbol{R_{0}}} = 1 $. Moreover, it is proved that the stability of feasible endemic equilibrium is determined by signs of tangent slopes of the epidemic curve. Finally, the theoretical results are verified by numerical simulations. This study suggests that maintaining sufficient hospital beds is crucial for the control of infectious diseases.

Medicaid expansion in California and breast cancer incidence across neighborhoods with varying social vulnerabilities.

PURPOSE: To investigate changes in breast cancer incidence rates associated with Medicaid expansion in California. METHODS: We extracted yearly census tract-level population counts and cases of breast cancer diagnosed among women aged between 20 and 64 years in California during years 2010-2017. Census tracts were classified into low, medium and high groups according to their social vulnerability index (SVI). Using a difference-in-difference (DID) approach with Poisson regression models, we estimated the incidence rate, incidence rate ratio (IRR) during the pre- (2010-2013) and post-expansion periods (2014-2017), and the relative IRR (DID estimates) across three groups of neighborhoods. RESULTS: Prior to the Medicaid expansion, the overall incidence rate was 93.61, 122.03, and 151.12 cases per 100,000 persons among tracts with high, medium, and low-SVI, respectively; and was 96.49, 122.07, and 151.66 cases per 100,000 persons during the post-expansion period, respectively. The IRR between high and low vulnerability neighborhoods was 0.62 and 0.64 in the pre- and post-expansion period, respectively, and the relative IRR was 1.03 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.06, p = 0.026). In addition, significant DID estimate was only found for localized breast cancer (relative IRR = 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.09, p = 0.049) between high and low-SVI neighborhoods, not for regional and distant cancer stage. CONCLUSIONS: The Medicaid expansion had differential impact on breast cancer incidence across neighborhoods in California, with the most pronounced increase found for localized cancer stage in high-SVI neighborhoods. Significant pre-post change was only found for localized breast cancer between high and low-SVI neighborhoods.

Risk of carpal tunnel syndrome among patients with osteoarthritis: a US population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS), an entrapment neuropathy caused by pressure of the median nerve, is a progressive condition that can lead to a decreased quality of life. Studies suggest an association between CTS and arthritis; however, previous studies examining osteoarthritis (OA) and CTS are limited in number, scope and study design. This study estimated the incidence and risk of CTS among patients with OA, both overall and by specific joints, in a large population-based cohort in the United States. METHODS: Patients from the Optum claims database aged ≥ 45 years and diagnosed with OA between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2022, were eligible for the OA cohort. The non-OA cohort included those without a diagnosis of OA at the index date and no history of OA for 12 months pre-index. Baseline characteristics were balanced using propensity score matching. The risk of CTS in the OA and non-OA cohort were evaluated using incidence rates and adjusted hazard ratios that were estimated using Cox regression. RESULTS: After applying the inclusion/exclusion criteria, 3,610,240 of the 6,023,384 adults with a diagnosis of OA remained in the OA cohort. After propensity-score matching, each cohort included 1,033,439 individuals. The incidence rates for CTS per 1000 person-years were 7.35 (95% confidence interval [CI] 7.21-7.49) in the OA cohort and 1.44 (95% CI 1.38-1.50) in the non-OA cohort. The risk of developing CTS in patients with OA was ~ 4 times that of patients without (hazard ratio = 3.80; 95% CI 3.54-4.07). This increased risk was found across all OA joint types, with OA of the hand/wrist having the highest risk for CTS. Additionally, multiple OA joints presented a higher risk compared with a single affected joint. CONCLUSIONS: OA increases the risk of CTS, but this is not limited to patients with hand/wrist OA, suggesting a systemic impact of OA on CTS. While the risk appears highest for patients with hand/wrist OA, patients with more distant affected joints like knee or hip also have an increased risk of CTS.

Incidence of recurrent and chronic pancreatitis after acute pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Acute pancreatitis (AP) has a high incidence, and patients can develop recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) and chronic pancreatitis (CP) after AP. Objectives: We aimed to estimate the pooled incidence rates (IRs), cumulative incidences, and proportions of RAP and CP after AP. Design: A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting the proportion of RAP and CP after AP. Data sources and methods: The systematic search was conducted in three (PubMed, EMBASE, and CENTRAL) databases on 19 December 2023. Articles reporting the proportion of RAP or CP in patients after the first and multiple episodes of AP were eligible. The random effects model was used to calculate the pooled IR with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The I 2 value assessed heterogeneity. The risk of bias assessment was conducted with the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Tool. Results: We included 119 articles in the quantitative synthesis and 29 in the IRs calculations. Our results showed that the IR of RAP in adult patients after AP was 5.26 per 100 person-years (CI: 3.99-6.94; I 2 = 93%), while in children, it was 4.64 per 100 person-years (CI: 2.73-7.87; I 2 = 88%). We also found that the IR of CP after AP was 1.4 per 100 person-years (CI: 0.9-2; I 2 = 75%), while after RAP, it increased to 4.3 per 100 person-years (CI: 3.1-6.0; I 2 = 76%). The risk of bias was moderate in the majority of the included studies. Conclusion: Our results showed that RAP affects many patients with AP. Compared to patients with the first AP episode, RAP leads to a threefold higher IR for developing CP. Trial registration: Our protocol was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42021283252).

Correlation between the triglyceride-glucose index and chronic kidney disease among adults with metabolic-associated fatty liver disease: fourteen-year follow-up.

Background and aims: According to previous studies, triglyceride-glucose (TyG) is related to chronic kidney disease (CKD), but no studies have explored the correlation between TyG and CKD among adults with metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). We aimed to explore the associations of the TyG index with CKD among adults with MAFLD. Methods: In this retrospective observational cohort study, data from 11,860 participants who underwent a minimum of three health assessments between 2008 and 2015 were retrospectively collected. Participants were followed up until the final medical visit or health examination. CKD refers to an eGFR < 60 mL/min per 1·73 m2 or the occurrence of two or more incidents of proteinuria. Results: Within a median 10·02-year follow-up period, 2005 (16·9%) participants reported developing CKD. Multivariate Cox regression models indicated a noticeable correlation between the TyG index and CKD incidence (HR per unit increase, 1.19; 95% CI: 1.09-1.29) and between the TyG index and CKD incidence (HR per SD increase, 1.12; 95% CI: 1.06-1.18). The CKD incidence increased by 1.8 times in participants in the highest TyG index quartile relative to patients in the lowest quartile of the TyG index quartile (HR 1·18, 95% CI: 1.01-1.38, P = 0.007). According to subgroup analysis, an elevated TyG index is likely to become more harmful to participants younger than 60 years (P for interaction = 0.035). Conclusion: An elevated TyG index may increase CKD incidence among MAFLD adults, particularly among younger people. Early intervention may help reduce the incidence of CKD.