Death on the permafrost: Revisiting the 1918-20 influenza pandemic in Alaska using death certificates.

The 1918-20 influenza pandemic devastated Alaska's Indigenous populations. We report on quantitative analyses of pandemic deaths due to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) using information from Alaska death certificates dating between 1915 and 1921 (n=7,147). Goals include a reassessment of pandemic death numbers, analysis of P&I deaths beyond 1919, estimates of excess mortality patterns overall and by age using intercensal population estimates based on Alaska's demographic history, and comparisons between Alaska Native (AN) and non-AN residents. Results indicate that ANs experienced 83% of all P&I deaths and 87% of all-cause excess deaths during the pandemic. AN mortality was 8.1 times higher than non-AN mortality. Analyses also uncovered previously unknown mortality peaks in 1920. Both subpopulations showed characteristically high mortality of young adults, possibly due to imprinting with the 1889-90 pandemic virus, but their age-specific mortality patterns were different: non-AN mortality declined after age 25-29 and stayed relatively low for the elderly, while AN mortality increased after age 25-29, peaked at age 40-44, and remained high up to age 64. This suggests a relative lack of exposure to H1-type viruses pre-1889 among AN persons. In contrast, non-AN persons, often temporary residents, may have gained immunity before moving to Alaska.

Birth Patterns in the Aftermath of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in India: The Case of Madras City.

This paper examines the timing of one-time fluctuations in births subsequent to the 1918 influenza pandemic in Madras (now Chennai), India. After seasonally decomposing key demographic aggregates, we identified abrupt one-time fluctuations in excess births, deaths, and infant deaths. We found a contemporaneous spike in excess deaths and infant deaths and a 40-week lag between the spike in deaths and a subsequent deficit in births. The results suggest that India experienced the same kind of short-term postpandemic "baby bust" that was observed in the United States and other countries. Identifying the mechanisms underlying this widespread phenomenon remains an open question and an important topic for future research.

The Socio-Cultural Factors Influencing the Level of Public Compliance with Infection Control Measures during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Italy: A Historical Approach.

During health emergencies, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are adopted in various combinations until a vaccine can be produced and widely administered. Containment strategies, including the closure of schools, churches, and dance halls; banning of mass gatherings; mandatory mask wearing; isolation; and disinfection/hygiene measures, require reasonable compliance to be successfully implemented. But what are the most effective measures? To date, few systematic studies have been conducted on the effects of various interventions used in past epidemics/pandemics. Important contributions to our understanding of these questions can be obtained by investigating the historical data from the great influenza pandemic of 1918, an event widely considered one of the greatest natural disasters in human history. Taking on particular importance is the study of the possible role played by the behaviour of the population and the lack of public obedience to the non-pharmaceutical interventions in a Mediterranean country like Italy-one of the most affected countries in Europe-during that pandemic, with special attention paid to the weight of the socio-cultural factors which hindered the ultimate goal of containing the spread of the virus and preventing excess deaths in the country.

The 1919-21 influenza pandemic in Greenland.

In Alaska, the 1918-20 influenza pandemic was devastating, with mortality rates up to 90% of the population, while in other arctic regions in northern Sweden and Norway mortality was considerably lower. We investigated the timing and age-patterns in excess mortality in Greenland during the period 1918-21 and compare these to other epidemics and the 1889-92 pandemic. We accessed the Greenlandic National Archives and transcribed all deaths from 1880 to 1921 by age, geography, and cause of death. We estimated monthly excess mortality and studied the spatial-temporal patterns of the pandemics and compared them to other mortality crises in the 40-year period. The 1918-21 influenza pandemic arrived in Greenland in the summer of 1919, one year delayed due to ship traffic interruptions during the winter months. We found that 5.2% of the Greenland population died of the pandemic with substantial variability between counties (range, 0.1% to 11%). We did not see the typical pandemic age-pattern of high young-adult mortality, possibly due to high baseline mortality in this age-group or remoteness. However, despite substantial mortality, the mortality impact was not standing out relative to other mortality crises, or of similar devastation reported in Alaskan populations.

Structural and organizational determinants of the capacity for COVID-19 testing and diagnoses in children: Insights from the 2009 influenza and COVID-19 pandemics.

BACKGROUND: This study explored factors associated with testing and diagnoses for children with COVID-19 at the hospital level and investigated whether the capacity of testing and diagnoses during the 2009 influenza pandemic was associated with that during COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: In this observational study, we analyzed data obtained from the Japan Medical Data Center database, comprising 4906 medical facilities and 1.7 million infectious disease-related visits among children aged <20 years in 2020-2021. Multivariable generalized linear models were used to explore determinants of testing and diagnoses capacity for COVID-19 and investigate the association between the capacity during the 2009 influenza and COVID-19 pandemics. RESULTS: Public hospitals (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR], 1.52; 95%CI, 1.26-1.82) and university hospitals (aIRR, 1.44; 95%CI, 1.14-1.80) were more likely to perform testing for COVID-19 among children, compared to clinics. The highest testing rate was observed in the department of internal medicine (aIRR, 1.64; 95%CI, 1.32-2.04), followed by pediatrics (aIRR, 1.40; 95%CI, 1.10-1.78) and otolaryngology (aIRR, 1.21; 95%CI, 0.89-1.64). Cubic spline models demonstrated the dose-response relationships between testing rate for influenza in 2009 and testing rates for COVID-19. Compared to the medical facilities in the lowest quartile of testing rate for influenza in 2009, those in the highest quartile were more likely to perform testing for COVID-19 (aIRR, 1.62; 95%CI, 1.43-1.83). CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides insights into the capacity of testing and diagnoses for children, highlighting the dose-response relationship between the 2009 influenza and COVID-19 pandemics, which could be valuable in preparing healthcare systems for future pandemics.

Frailty and survival in the 1918 influenza pandemic.

One of the most well-known yet least understood aspects of the 1918 influenza pandemic is the disproportionately high mortality among young adults. Contemporary accounts further describe the victims as healthy young adults, which is contrary to the understanding of selective mortality, which posits that individuals with the highest frailty within a group are at the greatest risk of death. We use a bioarchaeological approach, combining individual-level information on health and stress gleaned from the skeletal remains of individuals who died in 1918 to determine whether healthy individuals were dying during the 1918 pandemic or whether underlying frailty contributed to an increased risk of mortality. Skeletal data on tibial periosteal new bone formation were obtained from 369 individuals from the Hamann-Todd documented osteological collection in Cleveland, Ohio. Skeletal data were analyzed alongside known age at death using Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox proportional hazards analysis. The results suggest that frail or unhealthy individuals were more likely to die during the pandemic than those who were not frail. During the flu, the estimated hazards for individuals with periosteal lesions that were active at the time of death were over two times higher compared to the control group. The results contradict prior assumptions about selective mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Even among young adults, not everyone was equally likely to die-those with evidence of systemic stress suffered greater mortality. These findings provide time depth to our understanding of how variation in life experiences can impact morbidity and mortality even during a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen.

Influenza aviar H5N1. ¿Debemos preocuparnos? / Avian influenza H5N1. Should we worry?

Desde la segunda mitad de 2022 se ha reportado un aumento de casos de influenza en aves migratorias en Latinoamérica. Los virus influenza A y B son los principales agentes asociados a influenza estacional epidémica en humanos. Los virus influenza A circulan no solo en humanos sino también en animales, incluyendo aves migratorias. El intercambio de segmentos de ARN genómico entre dos virus del mismo tipo aumenta la diversidad de los subtipos circulantes e incluso puede facilitar la generación de progenie viral potencialmente pandémica. La naturaleza zoonótica del virus influenza A puede generar infecciones en humanos con virus de origen animal. El virus influenza A de origen aviar ha ocasionado transmisiones en humanos, incluyendo casos graves y muertes, siendo la influenza A H5N1 la más destacada. Es importante tomar medidas de prevención y control en caso de aumento de casos de influenza en aves migratorias para prevenir posibles pandemias en Chile y el mundo.

Since the second half of 2022, an increase in influenza cases in migratory birds has been reported in Latin America. Influenza A and B viruses are the main agents associated with seasonal epidemic influenza in humans. Influenza A viruses circulate not only in humans but also in animals, including migratory birds. The exchange of genomic RNA segments among two viruses increases the diversity of circulating subtypes and may even facilitate the generation of potentially pandemic viral progeny. The zoonotic nature of influenza A virus can generate infections in humans with animal-origin viruses. Avian-origin influenza A virus has caused transmissions in humans, including severe cases and deaths, with influenza A H5N1 being the most prominent. It is important to take preventive and control measures in case of an increase in influenza cases in migratory birds to prevent possible pandemics in Chile and the world.

Did the 1918 influenza pandemic cause a 1920 baby boom? Demographic evidence from neutral Europe.

In 1919-20, the European countries that were neutral in the First World War saw a small baby bust followed by a small baby boom. The sparse literature on this topic attributes the 1919 bust to individuals postponing conceptions during the peak of the 1918-20 influenza pandemic and the 1920 boom to recuperation of those conceptions. Using data from six large neutral countries of Europe, we present novel evidence contradicting that narrative. In fact, the subnational populations and maternal birth cohorts whose fertility was initially hit hardest by the pandemic were still experiencing below-average fertility in 1920. Demographic evidence, economic evidence, and a review of post-pandemic fertility trends outside Europe suggest that the 1920 baby boom in neutral Europe was caused by the end of the First World War, not by the end of the pandemic.

Tudo pela hora da morte! História, epidemias e desigualdades / Everything for an arm and a leg! History, epidemics, and inequalities

Resumo Assentado na interlocução entre os campos da História e da Saúde Coletiva e provocado pela historicidade do tempo presente, este artigo propõe avanços epistêmicos na discussão sobre o término das epidemias. Para tanto, se vale de operação historiográfica em vasto corpo documental, para apontar os impactos decorrentes da Gripe Espanhola de 1918 em Botucatu, cidade do interior paulista, na perspectiva do aprofundamento das desigualdades presentes nesta localidade nas décadas subsequentes à epidemia. Conclui apontando que, para além dos efeitos imediatos provocados pelo fenômeno epidêmico, ao arrefecer na dimensão biológica, a epidemia de Gripe Espanhola seguiu seu curso, alterando condicionantes sociais e culturais, bem como incidindo sobre estruturas sócio-históricas e em nossa corporeidade, tornando-se acontecimento histórico de longa duração. Desta forma, pode-se depreender que a compreensão das forças históricas que operam nos avanços e recuos em Saúde Coletiva podem alavancar enfrentamentos concretos às iniquidades, junto à retomada de um projeto civilizatório de transformação social no país, assentado na democracia, na justiça social e na defesa radical da vida.

Abstract Based on the dialogue between the fields of History and Public Health and provoked by the historicity of the present time, this article proposes epistemic advances in the discussion about the end of epidemics. To that end, it uses a historiographical operation in a vast body of documents, to point out the impacts resulting from the Spanish Flu of 1918 in Botucatu, a city in the interior of São Paulo, from the perspective of the deepening of inequalities in this locality in the decades following the epidemic. It concludes by pointing out that, in addition to the immediate effects caused by the epidemic phenomenon, when the Spanish Flu epidemic cooled down in the biological dimension, it followed its course, altering social and cultural conditions and affecting socio-historical structures and our corporeality, becoming a long-term historical event. Thus, we can infer that understanding the historical forces that operate in the advances and setbacks in Public Health can leverage concrete confrontations with inequities, along with the resumption of a civilizing project of social transformation in the country, based on democracy, social justice, and the radical defense of life.

Rastros epidêmicos nas fímbrias da dor: a memória da gripe espanhola na perspectiva da história local, Botucatu (SP), 1918 / Traces of epidemics in the fringes of pain: memory of Spanish flu from a local history perspective, Botucatu (São Paulo state), 1918

Resumo O artigo perscruta sob a perspectiva da história local de que forma a memória do sofrimento que cercou a epidemia de gripe espanhola de 1918 em Botucatu (interior paulista) foi reconvocada, tensionada e transmutada ao longo do processo histórico, produzindo representações em estratégias e práticas, e apreensões como constituintes de uma realidade social que produz sentidos. Para essa operação historiográfica, coligiram-se vestígios históricos em diversos arquivos botucatuenses, entre setembro e outubro de 2021, buscando desvelar processos históricos aglutinados e depositados entre as fibras e fímbrias sociais e que, sob afecção da temporalidade, se movimentam, se reelaboram e trazem à tona a inefável marca da gripe espanhola.

Abstract This article takes a local history perspective to scrutinize how the memory of suffering that surrounded the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918 in Botucatu, São Paulo state, has been evoked, challenged, and transmuted over time, producing representations in strategies and practices, and understandings that end up constituting a meaning-making social reality. In this historiographic endeavor, historical vestiges were brought together from a variety of the city's archives between September and October 2021 in a bid to reveal the historical processes that were accreted and deposited in the social fabric and fibers, and which, under the processes of time, were changed and reworked, bringing forth the ineffable mark of Spanish flu.

Unequal excess mortality during the Spanish Flu pandemic in the Netherlands.

A century after the Spanish Flu, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought renewed attention to socioeconomic and occupational differences in mortality in the earlier pandemic. The magnitude of these differences and the pathways between occupation and increased mortality remain unclear, however. In this paper, we explore the relation between occupational characteristics and excess mortality among men during the Spanish Flu pandemic in the Netherlands. By creating a new occupational coding for exposure to disease at work, we separate social status and occupational conditions for viral transmission. We use a new data set based on men's death certificates to calculate excess mortality rates by region, age group, and occupational group. Using OLS regression models, we estimate whether social position, regular interaction in the workplace, and working in an enclosed space affected excess mortality among men in the Netherlands in the autumn of 1918. We find some evidence that men with occupations that featured high levels of social contact had higher mortality in this period. Above all, however, we find a strong socioeconomic gradient to excess mortality among men during the Spanish Flu pandemic, even after accounting for exposure in the workplace.

Racial Disparities in Mortality During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in United States Cities.

Against a backdrop of extreme racial health inequality, the 1918 influenza pandemic resulted in a striking reduction of non-White to White influenza and pneumonia mortality disparities in United States cities. We provide the most complete account to date of these reduced racial disparities, showing that they were unexpectedly uniform across cities. Linking data from multiple sources, we then examine potential explanations for this finding, including city-level sociodemographic factors such as segregation, implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions, racial differences in exposure to the milder spring 1918 "herald wave," and racial differences in early-life influenza exposures, resulting in differential immunological vulnerability to the 1918 flu. While we find little evidence for the first three explanations, we offer suggestive evidence that racial variation in childhood exposure to the 1889-1892 influenza pandemic may have shrunk racial disparities in 1918. We also highlight the possibility that differential behavioral responses to the herald wave may have protected non-White urban populations. By providing a comprehensive description and examination of racial inequality in mortality during the 1918 pandemic, we offer a framework for understanding disparities in infectious disease mortality that considers interactions between the natural histories of particular microbial agents and the social histories of those they infect.

The Role of Psychological Factors and Vaccine Conspiracy Beliefs in Influenza Vaccine Hesitancy and Uptake among Jordanian Healthcare Workers during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Vaccination to prevent influenza virus infection and to lessen its severity is recommended among healthcare workers (HCWs). Health professionals have a higher risk of exposure to viruses and could transmit the influenza virus to vulnerable patients who are prone to severe disease and mortality. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the levels of influenza vaccine acceptance and uptake as well as its determinants, among Jordanian HCWs over the last influenza season of 2021/2022. This study was based on a self-administered electronic survey that was distributed in March 2022. Psychological determinants of influenza vaccine acceptance and vaccine conspiracy beliefs were assessed using the previously validated 5C scale questionnaire (confidence, complacency, constraints, calculation and collective responsibility) and the vaccine conspiracy beliefs scale. The study sample comprised a total of 1218 HCWs: nurses (n = 412, 33.8%), physicians (n = 367, 30.1%), medical technicians (n = 182, 14.9%), pharmacists (n = 161, 13.2%) and dentists (n = 87, 7.1%), among others. About two-thirds of the study sample expressed willingness to receive influenza vaccination if provided free of charge (n = 807, 66.3%), whereas less than one-third were willing to pay for the vaccine (n = 388, 31.9%). The self-reported uptake of the influenza vaccine in the last influenza season was 62.8%. The following factors were significantly associated with higher acceptance of influenza vaccination if provided freely, as opposed to vaccine hesitancy/rejection: male sex; physicians and dentists among HCW categories; higher confidence and collective responsibility; and lower complacency, constraints and calculation. Higher influenza vaccine uptake was significantly correlated with nurses and physicians among HCW categories, older age, a higher monthly income, higher confidence and collective responsibility, lower complacency and constraints and lower embrace of general vaccine conspiracy beliefs. The results of the current study can provide helpful clues to improve influenza vaccine coverage among HCWs in Jordan. Consequently, this can help to protect vulnerable patient groups and reserve valuable resources in healthcare settings. Psychological determinants appeared to be the most significant factors for vaccine acceptance and uptake, whereas the embrace of general vaccine conspiracy beliefs was associated with lower rates of influenza vaccine uptake, which should be considered in educational and interventional measures aiming to promote influenza vaccination.

Estimation of optimal antiviral stockpile for a novel influenza pandemic.

BACKGROUND: A stockpile of antiviral drugs is important for mitigating a novel influenza pandemic. Recently, intervention strategies against such a pandemic have improved significantly, affecting the required size and composition of the stockpile. Our goal is to estimate the optimal ratio of conventional to newer antiviral drugs. METHOD: We estimated epidemic parameters from daily-case data about H1N1pdm09 in the Republic of Korea, and used a deterministic ordinary differential equation model and stochastic simulation to predict the number of patients in a future pandemic. We considered an antiviral stockpile containing neuraminidase inhibitors (NAI) and a new drug, cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitor (CENI), seeking the optimum ratio of the two drugs under different epidemiological and economic assumptions. RESULTS: With an effective reproductive number of 1.36, the expected cumulative cases did not exceed 30 % of the population in all vaccination scenarios. If the non-pharmaceutical intervention strategy is intensified and the effective reproductive number is decreased to 1.29, a 20 % antiviral stockpile of the population is sufficient. Assuming that CENI is prescribed for 10 % of patients, the expected total number of cases is decreased from 30 % to approximately 25 % of the population. If the cost of CENI is triple that of NAI, no expenditures beyond the current budget are necessary; if it is quintuple, expenditures increase by 17 %. CONCLUSION: Stockpiling CENI reduces the number of patients by reducing the infectious period. However, the government needs to consider the cost-effective stockpile ratio of such new drugs. This will depend not only on the cost of the drugs, but on factors difficult to anticipate, such as the transmissibility of the virus, the time needed for vaccine development, and (especially) the emergence of resistance. If this information can be estimated, our model can be used to obtain the optimum.

Déjà vu all over again: racial, ethnic and age disparities in mortality from influenza 1918-19 and COVID-19 in the United States.

Background: Examination of the mortality patterns in the United States among racial, ethnic, and age groups attributed to the 1918-19 influenza pandemic revealed stark disparities, causes for which could have been addressed and rectified this past century. However, these disparities have been amplified during the current COVID-19 pandemic.We have ignored the lessons of the past, and were destined to repeat its failings. Objectives: Compare and contrast mortality patterns by age, race, and ethnicity attributable to the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in the United States with corresponding patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: This is a retrospective study, establishing mortality rates according to age, race and ethnicity attributable to the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in the United States and to the current COVID-19 pandemic, using mortality data published by the U.S. Public Health Service and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Negative binomial regression models were used to establish rate ratios, that is, ratios of mortality rates across the various racial/ethnic groups, and associated 95% confidence intervals. Results: Mortality patterns by age differ significantly between the 1918-19 influenza pandemic and the COVID-19 pandemic: with infant and young adult (25-40 years old) mortality substantially higher in the former. Disparities in mortality between racial and ethnic groups are amplified in the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the 1918-19 experience. Conclusions: As we evaluate our nation's response to COVID-19 and design public policy to prepare better for coming pandemics, we cannot ignore the stark disparities in mortality rates experienced by different racial and ethnic groups. This will require a sustained resolve by society and government to delineate and remedy the causative factors, through science devoid of political interpretation and exploitation.

The regional impact of an epidemic: socioeconomic and demographic data in Java, 1905-1924.

This dataset contains data for the island of Java, Indonesia, at the regency-level - comparable to present-day kabupaten. The data concern trends in area of cultivated sugar, total and per-hectare sugar production, crude mortality rates and wages in the period ca. 1909-1924. In addition to this panel dataset, cross-sectional figures were collected about the amount of sawah land (1920), urbanization rates (1905), medical personnel (1919), native population (1905) and areas with communal property with rotating shares. These figures were gathered from primary documents published by the Dutch colonial government and its constituent agencies. These data are relevant for all social scientists (such as economists, demographers or economic historians) interested in Southeast Asia or in the relationship between health indicators and economic development before, during and after an unprecedented pandemic. Historians of Southeast Asia and Indonesia may be interested in these figures as a background against which developments in politics and culture may be sketched. In addition, epidemiologists assessing the health consequences of the 1918 influenza pandemic will find valuable information in this regional dataset. Gallardo-Albarrán and de Zwart (2021) have shown on the basis of this dataset how the 1918 influenza pandemic affected economic activity across Java in this period.

Assessment of US Public School District Policies for Pandemic Preparedness and Implications for COVID-19 Response Activities.

OBJECTIVES: To describe school district preparedness for school closures and other relevant strategies before the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. METHODS: A stratified random sample of 957 public school districts from the 50 US states and the District of Columbia were surveyed between October 2015 and August 2016. The response rates for the questionnaires were as follows: Healthy and Safe School Environment, Crisis Preparedness Module (60%; N = 572), Nutrition Services (63%; N = 599), and Health Services (64%; N = 613). Data were analyzed using descriptive and regression techniques. RESULTS: Most school districts had procedures that would facilitate the implementation of school closures (88.7%). Fewer districts had plans for ensuring continuity of education (43.0%) or feeding students during closure (33.8%). The prevalence of continuity of education plans was lower in the Midwest than the Northeast (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] = 0.68; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.51-0.90). Presence of plans for feeding students was higher in high-poverty than low-poverty districts (aPR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.01-1.99) and in large districts than small districts (aPR = 2.06; 95% CI: 1.37-3.09). CONCLUSIONS: Understanding factors associated with having comprehensive emergency plans could help decision makers to target assistance during the current COVID-19 pandemic and for future planning purposes.

Mystery of love, goiter and death in flu pandemic.

Ivan Mestrovic (1883-1962), a Croatian sculptor and architect, portrayed his close friend Marija Banac (born Racic) with a goiter. She died from flu in 1918 in Rome, just few days apart from her brother Edi Racic and his fiancée. In the tragic memory of the Racic family that disappeared in the burst of a terrible pandemic, Mestrovic built a church and mausoleum in Cavtat near Dubrovnik.

Drastic Reduction Inpatient Visits to the Emergency Department in a Hospital in Israel During the COVID-19 Outbreak, Compared to the H1N1 2009.

BACKGROUND: On February 26, 2020, the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was detected in Israel. The Ministry of Health (MoH) instructed people to take isolation measures and restrict their movement. Similarly, there was a gradual decrease in the number of visits to our emergency department (ED). OBJECTIVES: To describe the decline in the referrals to the ED and in-hospital beds occupancy during the COVID-19 pandemic and to compare it to the H1N1 2009 pandemic. METHODS: Employing a cross-sectional epidemiologic study, the pattern of visits to the ED during the COVID-19 was compared with the pattern of visits during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, as well as a year without a pandemic. The data was adjusted to consider changes in population size. The Welch t test for unpaired, unequal samples was used to analyze the data. RESULTS: Within 2 months of the COVID-19 outbreak, the average number of visits to the ED dropped by 30.2% and the hospital occupancy by 29.2% (a minimum of 57%), compared to the same period, the year before. In comparison to the same period during the H1N1 outbreak, we witnessed a significant decline in the number of visits to the ED during the COVID-19 outbreak. CONCLUSION: The behavior of people during the COVID-19 pandemic was different from their behavior during the H1N1 pandemic. People seemed to avoid visiting the ED. The boundary between precaution and panic in the generation of the media could be very thin. Decision-makers must take this into account.