Setting Ranges in Potential Biomarkers for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients Early Detection By Sex-An Approach with Machine Learning Algorithms.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is one of the most common metabolic diseases in the world and poses a significant public health challenge. Early detection and management of this metabolic disorder is crucial to prevent complications and improve outcomes. This paper aims to find core differences in male and female markers to detect T2DM by their clinic and anthropometric features, seeking out ranges in potential biomarkers identified to provide useful information as a pre-diagnostic tool whie excluding glucose-related biomarkers using machine learning (ML) models. We used a dataset containing clinical and anthropometric variables from patients diagnosed with T2DM and patients without TD2M as control. We applied feature selection with three different techniques to identify relevant biomarker models: an improved recursive feature elimination (RFE) evaluating each set from all the features to one feature with the Akaike information criterion (AIC) to find optimal outputs; Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) with glmnet; and Genetic Algorithms (GA) with GALGO and forward selection (FS) applied to GALGO output. We then used these for comparison with the AIC to measure the performance of each technique and collect the optimal set of global features. Then, an implementation and comparison of five different ML models was carried out to identify the most accurate and interpretable one, considering the following models: logistic regression (LR), artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), and nearest centroid (Nearcent). The models were then combined in an ensemble to provide a more robust approximation. The results showed that potential biomarkers such as systolic blood pressure (SBP) and triglycerides are together significantly associated with T2DM. This approach also identified triglycerides, cholesterol, and diastolic blood pressure as biomarkers with differences between male and female actors that have not been previously reported in the literature. The most accurate ML model was selection with RFE and random forest (RF) as the estimator improved with the AIC, which achieved an accuracy of 0.8820. In conclusion, this study demonstrates the potential of ML models in identifying potential biomarkers for early detection of T2DM, excluding glucose-related biomarkers as well as differences between male and female anthropometric and clinic profiles. These findings may help to improve early detection and management of the T2DM by accounting for differences between male and female subjects in terms of anthropometric and clinic profiles, potentially reducing healthcare costs and improving personalized patient attention. Further research is needed to validate these potential biomarkers ranges in other populations and clinical settings.

Experimental and modeling of potassium diclofenac uptake on activated carbon.

The presence of pharmaceuticals in wastewater resulting from human activities has driven researchers to explore effective treatment methods such as adsorption using activated carbon (AC). While AC shows promise as an adsorbent, further studies are essential to comprehend its entire interaction with pharmaceuticals. This article investigates the adsorption of potassium diclofenac (PD) onto AC using experimental and modeling approaches. Batch adsorption studies coupled with Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) were employed to clarify the adsorption mechanism of PD on AC. Various kinetic and isotherm adsorption models were applied to analyze the adsorbent-adsorbate interaction. The kinetics were best described by Avrami's fractional order (AFO) nonlinear model. Also, the intraparticle diffusion (IP) model reveals a three-stage adsorption process. The experimental equilibrium data fitted well with the three-parameter nonlinear Liu model, indicating a maximum adsorption capacity (Qmax) of 88.45 mg g-1 and suggesting monolayer or multilayer adsorption. Thermodynamic analysis showed favorable adsorption (ΔG° < 0), with an enthalpy change (ΔH° = -30.85 kJ mol-1) characteristic of physisorption involving hydrogen bonds and π-π interactions. The adsorption mechanism was attributed to forming a double layer (adsorbate-adsorbent and adsorbate-adsorbate).

A Metric Based on the Efficient Determination Criterion.

This paper extends the concept of metrics based on the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), to achieve strongly consistent estimation of partition Markov models (PMMs). We introduce a set of metrics drawn from the family of model selection criteria known as efficient determination criteria (EDC). This generalization extends the range of options available in BIC for penalizing the number of model parameters. We formally specify the relationship that determines how EDC works when selecting a model based on a threshold associated with the metric. Furthermore, we improve the penalty options within EDC, identifying the penalty ln(ln(n)) as a viable choice that maintains the strongly consistent estimation of a PMM. To demonstrate the utility of these new metrics, we apply them to the modeling of three DNA sequences of dengue virus type 3, endemic in Brazil in 2023.

Genetic parameters and selection gain in tropical wheat populations via Bayesian inference / Parâmetros genéticos e ganho de seleção em populações tropicais de trigo via inferência bayesiana

ABSTRACT: The development process of a new wheat cultivar requires time between obtaining the base population and selecting the most promising line. Estimating genetic parameters more accurately in early generations with a view to anticipating selection means important advances for wheat breeding programs. Thus, the present study estimated the genetic parameters of F2 populations of tropical wheat and the genetic gain from selection via the Bayesian approach. To this end, the authors assessed the grain yield per plot of 34 F2 populations of tropical wheat. The Bayesian approach provided an adequate fit to the model, estimating genetic parameters within the parametric space. Heritability (h2) was 0.51. Among those selected, 11 F2 populations performed better than the control cultivars, with genetic gain of 7.80%. The following populations were the most promising: TbioSossego/CD 1303, CD 1303/TbioPonteiro, BRS 254/CD 1303, Tbio Duque/Tbio Aton, and Tbio Aton/CD 1303. Bayesian inference can be used to significantly improve tropical wheat breeding programs.

RESUMO: O processo de desenvolvimento de uma nova cultivar de trigo requer tempo entre a obtenção da população base e a seleção da linhagem mais promissora. Estimar parâmetros genéticos com mais precisão nas primeiras gerações com vistas a antecipar a seleção significa avanços importantes para os programas de melhoramento de trigo. Assim, o presente estudo estima os parâmetros genéticos de populações F2 de trigo tropical e o ganho genético da seleção via abordagem Bayesiana. Para tanto, os autores avaliaram a produtividade de grãos por parcela de 34 populações F2 de trigo tropical. A abordagem Bayesiana proporcionou um ajuste adequado ao modelo, estimando parâmetros genéticos dentro do espaço paramétrico. A herdabilidade (h2) foi de 0,51. Dentre as selecionadas, 11 populações F2 obtiveram desempenho superior às cultivares controle, com ganho genético de seleção de 7,80%. As seguintes populações foram as mais promissoras: Tbio Sossego/CD 1303, CD 1303/Tbio Ponteiro, BRS 254/CD 1303, Tbio Duque/Tbio Aton e Tbio Aton/CD 1303. A inferência Bayesiana pode ser usada para melhorar significativamente programas de melhoramento de trigo tropical.

An Efficient Coding Technique for Stochastic Processes.

In the framework of coding theory, under the assumption of a Markov process (Xt) on a finite alphabet A, the compressed representation of the data will be composed of a description of the model used to code the data and the encoded data. Given the model, the Huffman's algorithm is optimal for the number of bits needed to encode the data. On the other hand, modeling (Xt) through a Partition Markov Model (PMM) promotes a reduction in the number of transition probabilities needed to define the model. This paper shows how the use of Huffman code with a PMM reduces the number of bits needed in this process. We prove the estimation of a PMM allows for estimating the entropy of (Xt), providing an estimator of the minimum expected codeword length per symbol. We show the efficiency of the new methodology on a simulation study and, through a real problem of compression of DNA sequences of SARS-CoV-2, obtaining in the real data at least a reduction of 10.4%.

Land-Cover Classification Using MaxEnt: Can We Trust in Model Quality Metrics for Estimating Classification Accuracy?

MaxEnt is a popular maximum entropy-based algorithm originally developed for modelling species distribution, but increasingly used for land-cover classification. In this article, we used MaxEnt as a single-class land-cover classification and explored if recommended procedures for generating high-quality species distribution models also apply for generating high-accuracy land-cover classification. We used remote sensing imagery and randomly selected ground-true points for four types of land covers (built, grass, deciduous, evergreen) to generate 1980 classification maps using MaxEnt. We calculated different accuracy discrimination and quality model metrics to determine if these metrics were suitable proxies for estimating the accuracy of land-cover classification outcomes. Correlation analysis between model quality metrics showed consistent patterns for the relationships between metrics, but not for all land-covers. Relationship between model quality metrics and land-cover classification accuracy were land-cover-dependent. While for built cover there was no consistent patterns of correlations for any quality metrics; for grass, evergreen and deciduous, there was a consistent association between quality metrics and classification accuracy. We recommend evaluating the accuracy of land-cover classification results by using proper discrimination accuracy coefficients (e.g., Kappa, Overall Accuracy), and not placing all the confidence in model's quality metrics as a reliable indicator of land-cover classification results.

Testing multiple polynomial models for eye-tracker calibration.

The straightforward approach to eye-tracker calibration considers that the calibration data do not have erroneous associations, and the calibration function is defined. The violation of the non-erroneous assumption could cause an arbitrarily large bias. The MMransac algorithm proposed in this paper is a modified version of the Random Sample Consensus. that achieves robust calibrations. On the other hand, polynomials in two variables (i.e., with terms in the form κxayb) are commonly used to map eye-tracker measurements to points on the screen. High-degree polynomials tend to be more accurate; however, as the order is increased, the function becomes more complex and less smooth, which could cause over-fitting. In this sense, this paper proposes an algorithmic approach that enables model selection criteria even in the presence of outliers. This approach was tested using different model selection criteria. Results show that more accurate calibrations are obtained with the combined robust fitting and model selection approach using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Kullback information criterion (KIC).

Genomic Predictions Using Low-Density SNP Markers, Pedigree and GWAS Information: A Case Study with the Non-Model Species Eucalyptus cladocalyx.

High-throughput genotyping techniques have enabled large-scale genomic analysis to precisely predict complex traits in many plant species. However, not all species can be well represented in commercial SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) arrays. In this study, a high-density SNP array (60 K) developed for commercial Eucalyptus was used to genotype a breeding population of Eucalyptus cladocalyx, yielding only ~3.9 K informative SNPs. Traditional Bayesian genomic models were investigated to predict flowering, stem quality and growth traits by considering the following effects: (i) polygenic background and all informative markers (GS model) and (ii) polygenic background, QTL-genotype effects (determined by GWAS) and SNP markers that were not associated with any trait (GSq model). The estimates of pedigree-based heritability and genomic heritability varied from 0.08 to 0.34 and 0.002 to 0.5, respectively, whereas the predictive ability varied from 0.19 (GS) and 0.45 (GSq). The GSq approach outperformed GS models in terms of predictive ability when the proportion of the variance explained by the significant marker-trait associations was higher than those explained by the polygenic background and non-significant markers. This approach can be particularly useful for plant/tree species poorly represented in the high-density SNP arrays, developed for economically important species, or when high-density marker panels are not available.

Infection and Predictors of Outcome of Cirrhotic Patients after Emergency Care Hospital Admission.

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: We aimed to explore the impact of infection diagnosed upon admission and of other clinical baseline parameters on mortality of cirrhotic patients with emergency admissions. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We performed a prospective observational monocentric study in a tertiary care center. The association of clinical parameters and established scoring systems with short-term mortality up to 90 days was assessed by univariate and multivariable Cox regression analysis. Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) was used for automated variable selection. Statistical interaction effects with infection were also taken into account. RESULTS: 218 patients were included. 71.2% were male, mean age was 61.1 ± 10.5 years. Mean MELD score was 16.2 ± 6.5, CLIF-consortium Acute on Chronic Liver Failure-score was 34 ± 11. At 28, 90 and 365 days, 9.6%, 26.0% and 40.6% of patients had died, respectively. In multivariable analysis, respiratory organ failure [Hazard Ratio (HR) = 0.15], albumin substitution (HR = 2.48), non-HCC-malignancy (HR = 4.93), CLIF-C-ACLF (HR = 1.10), HCC (HR = 3.70) and first episode of ascites (HR = 0.11) were significantly associated with 90-day mortality. Patients with infection had a significantly higher 90-day mortality (36.3 vs. 20.1%, p = 0.007). Cultures were positive in 32 patients with resistance to cephalosporins or quinolones in 10, to ampicillin/sulbactam in 14 and carbapenems in 6 patients. CONCLUSION: Infection is common in cirrhotic ED admissions and increases mortality. The proportion of resistant microorganisms is high. The predictive capacity of established scoring systems in this setting was low to moderate.

Selection of a mathematical model for the kinetics of Haemophilus influenzae type b using akaike's in information criterion

Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine is made up from its capsular polysaccharide (PRP). Low productivity of the polysaccharide during cell growth increases the final cost of this vaccine. Hib achieves low levels of cellular concentration in vitro due to the inhibition caused by acetate. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was used in this work for selecting models of microbial growth. The application to the case of the multivariate models is outlined and the procedure is carried out using data from Hib cultures. From 4 models of biomass and 15 of acetate and PRP, one could be selected with great evidence for support. The use of AIC has shown to be robust and free of subjectivity, and it was able to define a kinetic model that is adequate for the cell growth and the production of its PRP over a wide range of culture conditions. The exponential inhibition factor was found to be the best for modelling inhibition of cell growth by acetate, while the hyperbolic factor was the best for inhibition of PRP formation. The acetate formation was found to have both growth associated and non associated types. PRP formation was found to be only growth associated.

Modelización de la captura y fases de desarrollo de la pesquería de la jaiba azul (Callinectes sapidus) en la Laguna Madre, Tamaulipas, México / Modelling the catch and development phases of the blue crab fishery (Callinectes sapidus) in the Laguna Madre, Tamaulipas, México

RESUMEN La captura promedio anual de la pesquería de la jaiba azul (Callinectes sapidus) (JA) en Tamaulipas, México se estima en 2 733 T, de la cual, el 82 % se pesca en la Laguna Madre, sitio que se considera aprovechado al máximo de su capacidad. El objetivo de la presente investigación fue modelar la captura anual de la JA en la Laguna Madre, Tamaulipas, mediante el ajuste de funciones matemáticas de tipo lineal y no lineal (o curvilínea), a la serie de tiempo de 1998 a 2012, además de identificar las fases de desarrollo de la pesquería, de acuerdo a varios modelos generalizados. Se utilizó el enfoque de la teoría de la información y el procedimiento de la inferencia multimodelo (IMM). Se ajustaron 11 modelos de regresión lineal y no lineal. Para la selección de modelos se utilizaron los criterios de información Akaike corregido (CIAc) y bayesiano (CIB). Para el IMM se consideró el nivel ∆i <2de plausibilidad de CIAc y CIB. Los modelos elegidos para el IMM fueron compuesto, crecimiento, exponencial, logístico, potencial y el sigmoideo, considerándose como más adecuados los primeros cuatro modelos citados. Los modelos promedio del IMM presentaron valores de β 0 y β 1 de 0.939 y 0.377 respectivamente, según CIAc; y de 0.952 y 0.344 respectivamente, de acuerdo al CIB. Solo los modelos compuesto y logístico mostraron significancia estadística en sus dos parámetros de regresión (β 0 y β 1). El índice de sustentabilidad pesquera reveló seis periodos de la captura y una disminución en magnitud de los cambios de la captura. La serie de datos analizada incluye dos ciclos de vida de acuerdo a los modelos de Csirke y Caddy. Los resultados mostraron que al final del periodo estudiado la pesquería se encontraba en colapso y decadencia.

ABSTRACT The average annual catch of the blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) (BC) fishery in Tamaulipas, Mexico is estimated at 2 733 T, of which the 82 % is caught in the Laguna Madre, which is considered to be exploited to the maximum of its capacity. The objective of the present investigation was to model the annual catch of the BC in the Laguna Madre, Tamaulipas, by adjusting mathematical functions of the linear and nonlinear (or curvilinear) type, to the time series from 1998 to 2012. In addition, the phases of development of the fishery, according to several generalized models, were identified. We used the information theory approach and multimodel inference procedure (MMI). Eleven linear and nonlinear regression models were fitted. For the selection of models, the corrected Akaike corrected (AICc) and Ba-yesian (BIC) information criteria were used. For the MMI, the level ∆i < 2 of plausibility of AICc and BIC was considered. The models chosen for the MMI were compound, growth, exponential, logistic, potential and the sigmoid, with the first four models being considered the most suitable of all those cited. The average models of the MMI presented values of β 0 and β 1: 0.939 and 0.377 respectively, according to CIAc; and 0.952 and 0.344 respectively, according to the CIB. Only the composite and logistic models showed statistical significance in their two regression parameters (β 0 and β 1). The fishery sustainability index revealed six catch periods and a decrease in magnitude of catch changes. The data series analyzed includes two life cycles according to the Csirke and Caddy models. The results showed that at the end of the studied period the fishery was in collapse and decay.

Crossing the Divide: Admixture Across the Antarctic Polar Front Revealed by the Brittle Star Astrotoma agassizii.

The Antarctic Polar Front (APF) is one of the most well-defined and persistent oceanographic features on the planet and serves as a barrier to dispersal between the Southern Ocean and lower latitudes. High levels of endemism in the Southern Ocean have been attributed to this barrier, whereas the accompanying Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) likely promotes west-to-east dispersal. Previous phylogeographic work on the brittle star Astrotoma agassizii Lyman, 1875 based on mitochondrial genes suggested isolation across the APF, even though populations in both South American waters and the Southern Ocean are morphologically indistinguishable. Here, we revisit this finding using a high-resolution 2b-RAD (restriction-site-associated DNA) single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based approach, in addition to enlarged mitochondrial DNA data sets (16S rDNA, COI, and COII), for comparison to previous work. In total, 955 biallelic SNP loci confirmed the existence of strongly divergent populations on either side of the Drake Passage. Interestingly, genetic admixture was detected between South America and the Southern Ocean in five individuals on both sides of the APF, revealing evidence of recent or ongoing genetic contact. We also identified two differentiated populations on the Patagonian Shelf with six admixed individuals from these two populations. These findings suggest that the APF is a strong but imperfect barrier. Fluctuations in location and strength of the APF and ACC due to climate shifts may have profound consequences for levels of admixture or endemism in this region of the world.

Growth curves in meat-type and laying quail: a Bayesian perspective / Curvas de crescimento em codornas de corte e postura: uma perspectiva Bayesiana

The aim of this study was to assess the goodness of fit for nonlinear models, using the best model to describe body growth curves, comparing the parameters obtained for gender and one meat-type (Coturnix coturnix coturnix) and two laying (Coturnix coturnix japonica) quail strains, as well as nesting via MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo processes) methods under a Bayesian approach. A total of 1,350 one-day-old mixed quail were used: 400 of meat-type, 450 of yellow laying, and 500 of red laying strains distributed in a completely randomized design with three treatments (each treatment corresponded to one strain) and five replications. The experimental period consisted of 1 to 42 days of age. At 21 days of age, quail sexing was performed by means of sexual dimorphism, being individually identified at one day of age with numbered rings, allowing determining growth curves by gender. Birds were reared in a conventional system, fed ad libitum with diets formulated to meet nutritional requirements. Body weight was determined weekly and assessed using nonlinear models: Logistic, Brody, Von Bertalanffy, and Gompertz, whose parameters were estimated under a Bayesian approach via MCMC algorithm by means of BRugs package from the software R. DIC (Deviance Information Criterion) criterion was used to select the best nonlinear model, i.e. the lower the DIC value is, the better the model goodness of fit to thedata. Gompertz model was better adjusted to the data regardless the gender or strain. Meat-type quailhad the highest asymptotic weights and the highest age at which growth rate was maximum, followedby red and yellow strains. All nestings presented significant differences (p < 0.05) between gender forcontrasted parameters. Meat-type, yellow, and red females presented values significantly (p < 0.05)higher for asymptotic weight (370, 203, and 215 g, respectively) when compared to males (274, 131,and 143 g, respectively), which were earlier in body growth.(AU)

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a qualidade de ajuste dos modelos não lineares aos dados, utilizando o melhor modelo para descrever as curvas de crescimento corporal, comparando os parâmetros obtidos para gênero e uma linhagem de codornas de corte (Coturnix coturnix coturnix) e duas de postura (Coturnix coturnix japonica), bem como o aninhamento, via método MCMC (Cadeias de Markov em processos de Monte Carlo), sob o enfoque Bayesiano. Foram utilizadas 1.350 codornas mistas, com um dia de idade, sendo: 400 da linhagem de corte, 450 de postura amarela e 500 de postura vermelha, distribuídas por um delineamento inteiramente casualizado, com três tratamentos (cada tratamento corresponde a uma linhagem) e cinco repetições. O período experimental foi de 1 a 42 dias de idade. Aos 21 dias de idade foi realizada a sexagem por dimorfismo sexual, sendo que elas foram identificadas individualmente com um dia com anilhas numeradas, possibilitando a determinação das curvas de crescimento por gênero. As aves foram criadas em um sistema convencional, alimentadas ad libitum com rações formuladas para atender às exigências nutricionais. O peso corporal foi determinado semanalmente e avaliados por meio dos modelos não lineares: Logístico, Brody, Von Bertalanffy e Gompertz. Para a seleção domelhor modelo não linear utilizou-se o critério DIC (Deviance Information Criterion), em que quantomenor o valor de DIC, melhor é a qualidade do ajuste do modelo aos dados. Gompertz melhor se ajustouaos dados, independentemente do gênero ou linhagem. As codornas de corte tiveram os maiores pesosassintóticos e a maior idade em que a taxa de crescimento é máxima, seguido pela vermelha e amarela.Todos aninhamentos apresentaram diferenças significativas (p < 0,05) entre gênero para os parâmetroscontrastados. As fêmeas de corte, amarela e vermelha apresentaram valores significativamente (p <0,05) maiores para o peso assintótico (370, 203 e 215 g, respectivamente), comparados aos...(AU)

Growth curves in meat-type and laying quail: a Bayesian perspective / Curvas de crescimento em codornas de corte e postura: uma perspectiva Bayesiana

The aim of this study was to assess the goodness of fit for nonlinear models, using the best model to describe body growth curves, comparing the parameters obtained for gender and one meat-type (Coturnix coturnix coturnix) and two laying (Coturnix coturnix japonica) quail strains, as well as nesting via MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo processes) methods under a Bayesian approach. A total of 1,350 one-day-old mixed quail were used: 400 of meat-type, 450 of yellow laying, and 500 of red laying strains distributed in a completely randomized design with three treatments (each treatment corresponded to one strain) and five replications. The experimental period consisted of 1 to 42 days of age. At 21 days of age, quail sexing was performed by means of sexual dimorphism, being individually identified at one day of age with numbered rings, allowing determining growth curves by gender. Birds were reared in a conventional system, fed ad libitum with diets formulated to meet nutritional requirements. Body weight was determined weekly and assessed using nonlinear models: Logistic, Brody, Von Bertalanffy, and Gompertz, whose parameters were estimated under a Bayesian approach via MCMC algorithm by means of BRugs package from the software R. DIC (Deviance Information Criterion) criterion was used to select the best nonlinear model, i.e. the lower the DIC value is, the better the model goodness of fit to thedata. Gompertz model was better adjusted to the data regardless the gender or strain. Meat-type quailhad the highest asymptotic weights and the highest age at which growth rate was maximum, followedby red and yellow strains. All nestings presented significant differences (p < 0.05) between gender forcontrasted parameters. Meat-type, yellow, and red females presented values significantly (p < 0.05)higher for asymptotic weight (370, 203, and 215 g, respectively) when compared to males (274, 131,and 143 g, respectively), which were earlier in body growth.

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a qualidade de ajuste dos modelos não lineares aos dados, utilizando o melhor modelo para descrever as curvas de crescimento corporal, comparando os parâmetros obtidos para gênero e uma linhagem de codornas de corte (Coturnix coturnix coturnix) e duas de postura (Coturnix coturnix japonica), bem como o aninhamento, via método MCMC (Cadeias de Markov em processos de Monte Carlo), sob o enfoque Bayesiano. Foram utilizadas 1.350 codornas mistas, com um dia de idade, sendo: 400 da linhagem de corte, 450 de postura amarela e 500 de postura vermelha, distribuídas por um delineamento inteiramente casualizado, com três tratamentos (cada tratamento corresponde a uma linhagem) e cinco repetições. O período experimental foi de 1 a 42 dias de idade. Aos 21 dias de idade foi realizada a sexagem por dimorfismo sexual, sendo que elas foram identificadas individualmente com um dia com anilhas numeradas, possibilitando a determinação das curvas de crescimento por gênero. As aves foram criadas em um sistema convencional, alimentadas ad libitum com rações formuladas para atender às exigências nutricionais. O peso corporal foi determinado semanalmente e avaliados por meio dos modelos não lineares: Logístico, Brody, Von Bertalanffy e Gompertz. Para a seleção domelhor modelo não linear utilizou-se o critério DIC (Deviance Information Criterion), em que quantomenor o valor de DIC, melhor é a qualidade do ajuste do modelo aos dados. Gompertz melhor se ajustouaos dados, independentemente do gênero ou linhagem. As codornas de corte tiveram os maiores pesosassintóticos e a maior idade em que a taxa de crescimento é máxima, seguido pela vermelha e amarela.Todos aninhamentos apresentaram diferenças significativas (p < 0,05) entre gênero para os parâmetroscontrastados. As fêmeas de corte, amarela e vermelha apresentaram valores significativamente (p <0,05) maiores para o peso assintótico (370, 203 e 215 g, respectivamente), comparados aos...

Growth curves in meat-type and laying quail: a Bayesian perspective / Curvas de crescimento em codornas de corte e postura: uma perspectiva Bayesiana

The aim of this study was to assess the goodness of fit for nonlinear models, using the best model to describe body growth curves, comparing the parameters obtained for gender and one meat-type (Coturnix coturnix coturnix) and two laying (Coturnix coturnix japonica) quail strains, as well as nesting via MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo processes) methods under a Bayesian approach. A total of 1,350 one-day-old mixed quail were used: 400 of meat-type, 450 of yellow laying, and 500 of red laying strains distributed in a completely randomized design with three treatments (each treatment corresponded to one strain) and five replications. The experimental period consisted of 1 to 42 days of age. At 21 days of age, quail sexing was performed by means of sexual dimorphism, being individually identified at one day of age with numbered rings, allowing determining growth curves by gender. Birds were reared in a conventional system, fed ad libitum with diets formulated to meet nutritional requirements. Body weight was determined weekly and assessed using nonlinear models: Logistic, Brody, Von Bertalanffy, and Gompertz, whose parameters were estimated under a Bayesian approach via MCMC algorithm by means of BRugs package from the software R. DIC (Deviance Information Criterion) criterion was used to select the best nonlinear model, i.e. the lower the DIC value is, the better the model goodnes

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a qualidade de ajuste dos modelos não lineares aos dados, utilizando o melhor modelo para descrever as curvas de crescimento corporal, comparando os parâmetros obtidos para gênero e uma linhagem de codornas de corte (Coturnix coturnix coturnix) e duas de postura (Coturnix coturnix japonica), bem como o aninhamento, via método MCMC (Cadeias de Markov em processos de Monte Carlo), sob o enfoque Bayesiano. Foram utilizadas 1.350 codornas mistas, com um dia de idade, sendo: 400 da linhagem de corte, 450 de postura amarela e 500 de postura vermelha, distribuídas por um delineamento inteiramente casualizado, com três tratamentos (cada tratamento corresponde a uma linhagem) e cinco repetições. O período experimental foi de 1 a 42 dias de idade. Aos 21 dias de idade foi realizada a sexagem por dimorfismo sexual, sendo que elas foram identificadas individualmente com um dia com anilhas numeradas, possibilitando a determinação das curvas de crescimento por gênero. As aves foram criadas em um sistema convencional, alimentadas ad libitum com rações formuladas para atender às exigências nutricionais. O peso corporal foi determinado semanalmente e avaliados por meio dos modelos não lineares: Logístico, Brody, Von Bertalanffy e Gompertz, cujos parâmetros foram estimados sob enfoque Bayesiano via algoritmo MCMC, utilizando o pacote BRugs do programa R. Par

Growth curves in meat-type and laying quail: a Bayesian perspective / Curvas de crescimento em codornas de corte e postura: uma perspectiva Bayesiana

The aim of this study was to assess the goodness of fit for nonlinear models, using the best model to describe body growth curves, comparing the parameters obtained for gender and one meat-type (Coturnix coturnix coturnix) and two laying (Coturnix coturnix japonica) quail strains, as well as nesting via MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo processes) methods under a Bayesian approach. A total of 1,350 one-day-old mixed quail were used: 400 of meat-type, 450 of yellow laying, and 500 of red laying strains distributed in a completely randomized design with three treatments (each treatment corresponded to one strain) and five replications. The experimental period consisted of 1 to 42 days of age. At 21 days of age, quail sexing was performed by means of sexual dimorphism, being individually identified at one day of age with numbered rings, allowing determining growth curves by gender. Birds were reared in a conventional system, fed ad libitum with diets formulated to meet nutritional requirements. Body weight was determined weekly and assessed using nonlinear models: Logistic, Brody, Von Bertalanffy, and Gompertz, whose parameters were estimated under a Bayesian approach via MCMC algorithm by means of BRugs package from the software R. DIC (Deviance Information Criterion) criterion was used to select the best nonlinear model, i.e. the lower the DIC value is, the better the model goodnes

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a qualidade de ajuste dos modelos não lineares aos dados, utilizando o melhor modelo para descrever as curvas de crescimento corporal, comparando os parâmetros obtidos para gênero e uma linhagem de codornas de corte (Coturnix coturnix coturnix) e duas de postura (Coturnix coturnix japonica), bem como o aninhamento, via método MCMC (Cadeias de Markov em processos de Monte Carlo), sob o enfoque Bayesiano. Foram utilizadas 1.350 codornas mistas, com um dia de idade, sendo: 400 da linhagem de corte, 450 de postura amarela e 500 de postura vermelha, distribuídas por um delineamento inteiramente casualizado, com três tratamentos (cada tratamento corresponde a uma linhagem) e cinco repetições. O período experimental foi de 1 a 42 dias de idade. Aos 21 dias de idade foi realizada a sexagem por dimorfismo sexual, sendo que elas foram identificadas individualmente com um dia com anilhas numeradas, possibilitando a determinação das curvas de crescimento por gênero. As aves foram criadas em um sistema convencional, alimentadas ad libitum com rações formuladas para atender às exigências nutricionais. O peso corporal foi determinado semanalmente e avaliados por meio dos modelos não lineares: Logístico, Brody, Von Bertalanffy e Gompertz, cujos parâmetros foram estimados sob enfoque Bayesiano via algoritmo MCMC, utilizando o pacote BRugs do programa R. Par

Aplicação de modelos circulares em análises da borda para validação em estudos de idade de tubarões / Analysis of edge type for validation in studies of age of sharks: applying circular models

Validation analysis is important in aging studies of fishes. In the last decades, researchs in this field were often based on marginal increments of vertebrae, and the results have been interpreted based on visual inspection of graphs. Subjective interpretations can result in misleading conclusions. Recently, statistical models with Bernoulli probability distribution and with mixture of circular distributions were proposed as an objective solution in validation studies based on the analysis of the edge type. In this work several of those models were used to analyze data of mako (Isurus oxyrinchus) and crocodile (Pseudocarcharias kamoharai). In some circunstances results are not conclusive. Parameter estimations are imprecise when the sample size is small. However, there is not guarantee that large samples will result in successful estimation of parameters and validation analysis. Adequate models as well as accurate data are necessary in order to obtain conclusive evidences in the analysis of the edge type. The use of Akaike Information Criterion can result in the selection of overparametrized mixture models, while simple models are selected when using Bayesian Information Criterion. The use of the circular statistical models stand for an advance with respect to the subjective approach, but further studies are necessary concerning assimetric probability distributions, and procedures to assess overparameterizations when using mixture models.(AU)

A análise de validação é fundamental em estudos de idade de peixes. Nas últimas décadas, as pesquisas nesta área foram frequentemente baseadas em análises do incremento marginal em vértebras, e os resultados tem sido interpretados com base em inspeções visuais de gráficos. Interpretações subjetivas podem levar a conclusões equivocadas. Recentemente, modelos estatísticos com a distribuição de probabilidade de Bernoulli e com mistura de distribuições circulares foram propostos como solução objetiva em estudos baseados na análise do tipo de borda. Neste trabalho, diversos destes modelos foram utilizados para analisar dados dos tubarões mako (Isurus oxyrinchus) e crocodilo (Pseudocarcharias kamoharai). Os resultados sugerem que, em algumas circunstâncias, não se obtém evidências conclusivas. As estimativas dos parâmetros são imprecisas se o tamanho amostral é pequeno. Não há garantias de que uma amostra grande resultará em uma estimação de parâmetros e em uma análise de validação bem sucedida. Para obter evidências conclusivas em análises dos tipos de bordas são necessários modelos adequados e também dados acurados. O uso do Critério de Informação de Akaike pode resultar na seleção de modelos de mistura sobreparametrizados, enquanto que modelos simples são selecionados quando utilizado o Critério de Informação Bayesiano. O uso dos modelos estatísticos circulares é um avanço em relação às abordagens subjetivas, mas mais estudos são necessários sobre distribuições de probabilidade assimétricas e sobre procedimentos para avaliar sobreparametrizações quando utilizados modelos de mistura.(AU)

Aplicação de modelos circulares em análises da borda para validação em estudos de idade de tubarões / Analysis of edge type for validation in studies of age of sharks: applying circular models

Validation analysis is important in aging studies of fishes. In the last decades, researchs in this field were often based on marginal increments of vertebrae, and the results have been interpreted based on visual inspection of graphs. Subjective interpretations can result in misleading conclusions. Recently, statistical models with Bernoulli probability distribution and with mixture of circular distributions were proposed as an objective solution in validation studies based on the analysis of the edge type. In this work several of those models were used to analyze data of mako (Isurus oxyrinchus) and crocodile (Pseudocarcharias kamoharai). In some circunstances results are not conclusive. Parameter estimations are imprecise when the sample size is small. However, there is not guarantee that large samples will result in successful estimation of parameters and validation analysis. Adequate models as well as accurate data are necessary in order to obtain conclusive evidences in the analysis of the edge type. The use of Akaike Information Criterion can result in the selection of overparametrized mixture models, while simple models are selected when using Bayesian Information Criterion. The use of the circular statistical models stand for an advance with respect to the subjective approach, but further studies are necessary concerning assimetric probability distributions, and procedures to assess overparameterizations when using mixture models.

A análise de validação é fundamental em estudos de idade de peixes. Nas últimas décadas, as pesquisas nesta área foram frequentemente baseadas em análises do incremento marginal em vértebras, e os resultados tem sido interpretados com base em inspeções visuais de gráficos. Interpretações subjetivas podem levar a conclusões equivocadas. Recentemente, modelos estatísticos com a distribuição de probabilidade de Bernoulli e com mistura de distribuições circulares foram propostos como solução objetiva em estudos baseados na análise do tipo de borda. Neste trabalho, diversos destes modelos foram utilizados para analisar dados dos tubarões mako (Isurus oxyrinchus) e crocodilo (Pseudocarcharias kamoharai). Os resultados sugerem que, em algumas circunstâncias, não se obtém evidências conclusivas. As estimativas dos parâmetros são imprecisas se o tamanho amostral é pequeno. Não há garantias de que uma amostra grande resultará em uma estimação de parâmetros e em uma análise de validação bem sucedida. Para obter evidências conclusivas em análises dos tipos de bordas são necessários modelos adequados e também dados acurados. O uso do Critério de Informação de Akaike pode resultar na seleção de modelos de mistura sobreparametrizados, enquanto que modelos simples são selecionados quando utilizado o Critério de Informação Bayesiano. O uso dos modelos estatísticos circulares é um avanço em relação às abordagens subjetivas, mas mais estudos são necessários sobre distribuições de probabilidade assimétricas e sobre procedimentos para avaliar sobreparametrizações quando utilizados modelos de mistura.

Newborn length predicts early infant linear growth retardation and disproportionately high weight gain in a low-income population.

BACKGROUND: Stunting is prevalent by the age of 6 months in the indigenous population of the Western Highlands of Guatemala. AIM: The objective of this study was to determine the time course and predictors of linear growth failure and weight-for-age in early infancy. STUDY DESIGN AND SUBJECTS: One hundred and forty eight term newborns had measurements of length and weight in their homes, repeated at 3 and 6 months. Maternal measurements were also obtained. RESULTS: Mean ± SD length-for-age Z-score (LAZ) declined from newborn -1.0 ± 1.01 to -2.20 ± 1.05 and -2.26 ± 1.01 at 3 and 6 months respectively. Stunting rates for newborn, 3 and 6 months were 47%, 53% and 56% respectively. A multiple regression model (R(2) = 0.64) demonstrated that the major predictor of LAZ at 3 months was newborn LAZ with the other predictors being newborn weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ), gender and maternal education∗maternal age interaction. Because WAZ remained essentially constant and LAZ declined during the same period, weight-for-length Z-score (WLZ) increased from -0.44 to +1.28 from birth to 3 months. The more severe the linear growth failure, the greater WAZ was in proportion to the LAZ. CONCLUSION: The primary conclusion is that impaired fetal linear growth is the major predictor of early infant linear growth failure indicating that prevention needs to start with maternal interventions.