Do investments in phosphorus recovery from dairy processing wastewater pay off?

While phosphorus fertilizers contribute to food security, part of the introduced phosphorus dissipates into water bodies leading to eutrophication. At the same time, conventional mineral phosphorus sources are increasingly scarce. Therefore, closing phosphorus cycles reduces pollution while decreasing trade dependence and increasing food security. A major part of the phosphorus loss occurs during food processing. In this article, we combine a systematic literature review with investment and efficiency analysis to investigate the financial feasibility of recovering phosphorus from dairy processing wastewater. This wastewater is particularly rich in phosphorus, but while recovery technologies are readily available, they are rarely adopted. We calculate the Net Present Value (NPV) of investing in phosphorus recycling technology for a representative European dairy processing company producing 100,000 tonnes of milk per year. We develop sensitivity scenarios and adjust the parameters accordingly. Applying struvite precipitation, the NPV can be positive in two scenarios. First, if the phosphorus price is high (1.51 million EUR) or second if phosphorus recovery is a substitute for mandatory waste disposal (1.48 million EUR). However, for a variety of methodological specifications, the NPV is negative, mainly because of high input costs for chemicals and energy. These trade-offs between off-setting pollution and reducing energy consumption imply, that policy makers and investors should consider the energy source for phosphorus recovery carefully.

Considering intervention intensity in habitat restoration planning: An application to Pacific salmon.

Habitat restoration is a key strategy for recovering imperiled species, and planning habitat restoration activities cost effectively can help advance recovery objectives. Habitat restoration planning involves decisions about where and when to undertake restoration, and what type of restoration to undertake. This article focuses on decisions about the amount of restoration to undertake for a given type, location, and time, termed intervention intensity. A return on investment framework is developed for incorporating intervention intensity into habitat restoration planning. The framework is then applied in the context of planning habitat restoration for Pacific salmon recovery as a case study. Results showed that no single intervention type or location dominated, and several returns to scale relationships emerged across the candidate interventions. Scenarios that considered interventions across multiple intensities outperformed single-intensity scenarios in terms of total benefits and cost effectiveness. These findings highlight the usefulness of exploratory return on investment analysis for prioritizing habitat restoration interventions, and underscore the importance of systematically considering how much restoration to undertake, in addition to what to do and where.

The Economics of Investment and Prioritization of Flood Risk Reduction Measures in a Watershed.

Existing and projected economic losses caused by floods all over the world have generated a growing consensus about the need for investment in flood risk mitigation. Most of the evidence on the returns to risk reduction is based on cost-benefit analysis performed for specific measures, lacking a comprehensive appraisal of alternatives. This article presents an integrated approach to consistently prioritize potential flood mitigation measures in a river basin and determine the economically desirable investment level in flood risk reduction. An optimization model is developed to select the type, size, and schedule of flood risk mitigation measures over a planning horizon. The model is formulated as a dynamic mixed integer linear program and applied to a river basin where severe floods have occurred historically. A variety of individual and combinations of risk reduction measures are used as inputs for the model. Initial analysis is conducted for different scenarios of flood damage growth, investment financing constraints, and decisionmakers' preferences toward extreme and future losses. Results show that investment in flood risk reduction is economically justified in the basin. Investment is greater for higher rates of damage growth and aversion to extreme flood losses. Financing constraints only affect the rate of implementation of risk reduction measures in the initial periods. The proposed integrated approach can inform the design of investment plans for flood risk reduction based on sound economic principles, providing valuable support to decisionmakers.

Economic viability of a crop-livestock integration system / Viabilidade econômica de um sistema de integração lavoura-pecuária

ABSTRACT: Crop monoculture and single conventional cattle raising were designed for a rapid increase in productivity and food supply. However, some of these production systems have shown signs of saturation and negative environmental impacts. Crop-livestock integration systems have been developed as an alternative that delivers increased productivity and greater environmental sustainability. This article presents an evaluation of the economic viability and the financial risk associated with an investment in crop-livestock integration with a focus on the production of beef cattle in São Carlos, SP, Brazil. Results showed that the investment is economically viable and has an Internal Rate of Return higher than that of a conventional system. Monte Carlo simulations showed that the integrated system presents lower market risks when compared to the conventional system.

RESUMO: A produção agrícola em monocultivo e a pecuária convencional não integrada com culturas foram desenhadas para um aumento rápido da produtividade e da oferta de alimentos. Entretanto, alguns destes sistemas de produção têm mostrado sinais de saturação e impactos ambientais negativos. Sistemas de integração lavoura-pecuária têm sido desenvolvidos como uma alternativa que oferece aumento de produtividade e maior sustentabilidade ambiental. O presente trabalho tem por objetivo estimar a viabilidade econômica e o risco financeiro associado a um projeto de investimento em integração lavoura-pecuária com foco para a produção de animais de corte em São Carlos, SP. Os resultados mostraram que o investimento é economicamente viável e apresenta Taxa Interna de Retorno superior à de um sistema convencional. Por meio da simulação de Monte Carlo constatou-se o sistema integrado apresenta menores riscos de mercado quando comparado com o sistema convencional.

Productivity and cost-effectiveness of short-rotation hardwoods on various land types in the southeastern USA.

Despite the growing need to produce energy crops, information on comprehensive feasibility of growing short-rotation woody crops (SRWCs) on non-contentious and less-utilized lands and lands transitioning from previous uses in the southeastern USA is limited. An assessment model (SRWC-PEAM) was developed and tested for assessing the feasibility of SRWCs on lands targeted for ecosystem-service enhancements based on land conditions, species, and stand and economic variables in the southeastern USA. Productivity and economic returns of sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua L.), sycamore (Platanus occidentalis L.), and poplar (Populus) stand differed due to land types, species' adaptability and biomass potential, and optimal land-type-based management schemes. Poplar stands had the greatest biomass and the highest returns on all land types although returns from the three species on most land types were poor using current reported regional delivered prices. Irrigating stands increased yields but returns were poorer than from non-irrigated stands due to high costs of irrigation. Longer rotations resulted in greater biomass and returns and were more crucial for irrigated stands. Significantly higher feedstock prices and productivities are requisite for SRWC viability in the southeastern USA. SRWC-PEAM is a web-based tool and can accommodate other SRWC species and assessment of environmental services associated with SRWCs.

Economic analysis of the risk of replacing corn grains (Zea mays) with pearl millet grains (Pennisetum glaucum) in the diet of feedlot cattle / Análise econômica do risco da substituição de grãos de milho (Zea mays) por grãos de milheto (Pennisetum glaucum) na dieta de bovinos confinados

ABSTRACT: The goal of the present study was to assess the economic viability relating to the risk of replacing corn with pearl millet in diets with 80% concentration for feedlot cattle confined for 89 days. Replacement levels were: 0, 33, 66, and 100%. The risk was estimated using Monte Carlo simulation, Spearman's rank correlation test between input variables, stochastic dominance, and analysis of sensitivity. The expected average values ± standard deviation for net present value (R$/animal) were ± 71.74 ± 283.32, 91.23 ± 285.18, 196.05 ± 273.79, and 223.80 ± 267.96 for diets containing 0, 33, 66, and 100% of pearl millet, respectively. The probability of ≥0 net present value was 63.4, 66.1, 78.4, and 82.4%, respectively. The net present values were statistically different (P<0.05), and the higher levels dominated the lower values. The items that most influenced the net present values were, in descending order, prices of unfinished and finished cattle, initial and final weights, prices of concentrate and forage, concentrate and forage consumption. Based on the results of the simulation, diet of 100% pearl millet exhibited the best economic viability.

RESUMO: O objetivo do estudo foi avaliar a viabilidade econômica relacionada ao risco da substituição de milho por milheto em dietas com 80% de concentrado no confinamento de bovinos por 89 dias. Os níveis de substituição foram: 0, 33, 66 e 100%. O risco foi estimado usando simulação de Monte Carlo, correlação de Spearman entre as variáveis ​​de entrada, dominância estocástica e análise de sensibilidade. Os valores médios esperados ± desvio padrão para o valor presente líquido (R$/animal) foram de ± 71,74 ± 283,32, 91,23 ± 285,18, 196,05 ± 273,79 e 223,80 ± 267,96 para dietas contendo 0, 33, 66 e 100% de milheto, respectivamente. A probabilidade de valor presente líquido ≥0 foi de 63,4, 66,1, 78,4 e 82,4%, respectivamente. Os valores presentes líquidos foram estatisticamente diferentes (p<0,05), e os níveis mais elevados dominaram os valores mais baixos. Os itens que mais influenciaram os valores presentes líquidos foram, em ordem decrescente, os preços de bovinos não terminados e acabados, pesos inicial e final, preços de concentrado e forragem, consumo de concentrado e forragem. Com base nos resultados da simulação, a dieta de 100% de milheto mostrou a melhor viabilidade econômica.

Mixed methods evaluation of a hospital group model using an embedded research approach: study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Hospital group models represent an organisational form that aims to bring together multiple provider organisations with a central headquarters and unified leadership responsible for locally managed operating units, standardised systems and a value-set shared across the group. These models seek to improve outcomes by reducing unwarranted variations in care provision and reducing costs through economies of scale. There is limited evidence on the impact and processes of implementing these models, so this study aims to evaluate one case study of a hospital group model. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will conduct a formative, mixed-methods evaluation using an embedded research approach to analyse the implementation of the model and its impact on outcomes and costs. We will carry out a multisited ethnography to analyse the programme theory for model design and implementation, the barriers and facilitators in the implementation; and wider contextual issues that influence implementation using semi-structured interviews (n=80), non-participant observations (n=80 hours), 'shadowing' (n=20 hours) and documentary analysis. We will also carry out an economic evaluation composed of a cost-consequence analysis and a return on investment analysis to evaluate the costs of creating and running the model and balance these against the potential cost-savings. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study protocol was reviewed by the local R&D Office and University College London Ethics Committee and classified as a service evaluation, not requiring approval by a research ethics committee. We will follow guidelines for informed consent, confidentiality and information governance, and address issues of critical distance prevalent in embedded research. Findings will be shared at regular time points to inform the implementation of the model. The evaluation will also generate: an evaluation framework to evaluate future changes; recommendations for meaningful baseline data and measuring improvement; identification of implementation costs and potential cost-savings; and lessons for the National Health Service on implementing these models.

Decision-making tools: stochastic simulation model accounting for the impacts of biological variation on success of bovine embryo transfer programs.

The objective of the project was to create an economic risk analysis tool for user-defined embryo transfer (ET) programs as an aid in decision-making. Distributions defining the biological uncertainty for many reproductive outcomes are estimated through extensive literature review and limited industry sources. Applying the Latin hypercube variation of Monte Carlo simulation, a sample value from the descriptive distribution associated with each stochastic variable is included in each iteration of the simulation. Through large numbers of iterations with dynamic combinations of variable values, the process culminates in a distribution of possible values for the net present value, annuity equivalent net present value, and return on investment associated with the modeled embryo production scenario. Two options for embryo production, multiple ovulation embryo transfer (MOET) and in vitro embryo production (IVP) from aspirated oocytes, are modeled. Within both MOET and IVP, the use of unsorted or sex-sorted semen is considered, as well as the exception or inclusion of follicular synchronization and/or stimulation before ovum pick-up in IVP procedures. Pretransfer embryo selection through embryo biopsy can also be accounted for when considering in vivo derived embryos. Ample opportunity exists for the commercial application of in-depth, alternative ET scenario assessment afforded through stochastic simulation methodology that the ET industry has not yet fully exploited.

Making healthy homes? A pilot study of the return on investment from an external wall insulation intervention.

OBJECTIVES: External Wall Insulation (EWI) insulates and protect homes against damp. The Energy Company Obligation (ECO) scheme incentivised large energy providers in the UK delivering energy efficiency measures such as EWI to fuel impoverished households. Return on Investment (ROI) analysis is utilised to determine if EWI is a cost-effective procedure in terms of improving health related quality of life (HRQOL) measured using the EQ-5D-3L™, reducing health care expenditure, and fuel costs. Data comes from Stockton-On-Tees council, health care costs data, and information collected from households in the most socially deprived areas in Stockton-on-Tees. RESULTS: The total cost of installation across all 2252 that received EWI was £10,222,954 in 2016 GBP. Annual total benefits were extrapolated across all 3265 households that received EWI. Total benefits were differences between the control and treatment groups in fuel costs, health care costs, and HRQOL multiplied by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence Quality Adjusted Life Year threshold (£20,000). Total benefits for all households that received EWI were £1,519,045. The ROI of EWI is - 41%. 7.9 years are needed to recoup the costs of the initial investment.

Análise conjunta de indicadores na viabilidade econômica do confinamento de novilhos recebendo dietas com diferentes níveis de concentrado / Joint analysis of economic viability indicators of feedlot steers fed diets with different concentrate levels

O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a viabilidade econômica, por meio da análise conjunta de indicadores financeiros expressos por animal, da terminação em confinamento de novilhos Aberdeen Angus recebendo dietas com diferentes níveis de concentrado (NC): 25, 40, 55 ou 70% (base na matéria seca). Foram consideradas cotações históricas consecutivas dos anos de 2003 a 2014. A análise univariada caracterizou-se por delineamento inteiramente ao acaso, com quatro tratamentos e quatro repetições, procedendo-se à análise de regressão. A análise multivariada consistiu de agrupamento (cluster). Pela análise univariada, houve similaridade para os indicadores financeiros, com médias para margem bruta de R$ 173,21; margem líquida de R$ 163,73; lucro de R$ 110,61; valor presente líquido de R$ 93,31; índice benefício: custo de 1,048; retorno adicional sobre o investimento de 1,17% a.m.; taxa interna de retorno de 2,04% a.m. e payback descontado de 1,36 mês. Pela análise de cluster, o NC de 55% apresentou maior discrepância em relação aos demais níveis, enquanto 40 e 70% foram os mais próximos. A análise conjunta dos indicadores financeiros indicou viabilidade do confinamento de novilhos, independentemente do nível de concentrado.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the economic viability, through the joint analysis of financial indicators expressed by animal, of the Aberdeen Angus steers feedlot finished fed diets with different levels of concentrate (CL): 25, 40, 55 or 70% (on dry matter basis). Consecutive historical quotes of years 2003 to 2014 were considered. Univariate analysis was characterized by a completely randomized design with four treatments and four replications, proceeding regression analysis. Multivariate analysis consisted of grouping (cluster). The univariate analysis showed similarity to the financial indicators with averages to gross margin of R$ 173.21; net margin of R$ 163.73; income of R$ 110.61; net present value of R$ 93.31; benefit: cost ratio of 1.048; additional return on investment of 1.17% per month; internal rate of return of 2.04% per month and discounted payback of 1.36 months. By cluster analysis, 55% CL presented greater discrepancy in relation to other levels, while 40 and 70% were the nearest. The analysis of the financial indicators indicated feasibility of feedlot steers, regardless of the concentrate level.

Análise conjunta de indicadores na viabilidade econômica do confinamento de novilhos recebendo dietas com diferentes níveis de concentrado / Joint analysis of economic viability indicators of feedlot steers fed diets with different concentrate levels

O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a viabilidade econômica, por meio da análise conjunta de indicadores financeiros expressos por animal, da terminação em confinamento de novilhos Aberdeen Angus recebendo dietas com diferentes níveis de concentrado (NC): 25, 40, 55 ou 70% (base na matéria seca). Foram consideradas cotações históricas consecutivas dos anos de 2003 a 2014. A análise univariada caracterizou-se por delineamento inteiramente ao acaso, com quatro tratamentos e quatro repetições, procedendo-se à análise de regressão. A análise multivariada consistiu de agrupamento (cluster). Pela análise univariada, houve similaridade para os indicadores financeiros, com médias para margem bruta de R$ 173,21; margem líquida de R$ 163,73; lucro de R$ 110,61; valor presente líquido de R$ 93,31; índice benefício: custo de 1,048; retorno adicional sobre o investimento de 1,17% a.m.; taxa interna de retorno de 2,04% a.m. e payback descontado de 1,36 mês. Pela análise de cluster, o NC de 55% apresentou maior discrepância em relação aos demais níveis, enquanto 40 e 70% foram os mais próximos. A análise conjunta dos indicadores financeiros indicou viabilidade do confinamento de novilhos, independentemente do nível de concentrado.(AU)

The objective of this study was to evaluate the economic viability, through the joint analysis of financial indicators expressed by animal, of the Aberdeen Angus steers feedlot finished fed diets with different levels of concentrate (CL): 25, 40, 55 or 70% (on dry matter basis). Consecutive historical quotes of years 2003 to 2014 were considered. Univariate analysis was characterized by a completely randomized design with four treatments and four replications, proceeding regression analysis. Multivariate analysis consisted of grouping (cluster). The univariate analysis showed similarity to the financial indicators with averages to gross margin of R$ 173.21; net margin of R$ 163.73; income of R$ 110.61; net present value of R$ 93.31; benefit: cost ratio of 1.048; additional return on investment of 1.17% per month; internal rate of return of 2.04% per month and discounted payback of 1.36 months. By cluster analysis, 55% CL presented greater discrepancy in relation to other levels, while 40 and 70% were the nearest. The analysis of the financial indicators indicated feasibility of feedlot steers, regardless of the concentrate level.(AU)

Risk analysis of the economic viability of feedlot aberdeen angus steers fed with different proportions of concentrate / Análise de risco da viabilidade econômica do confinamento de novilhos aberdeen angus alimentados com diferentes proporções de concentrado

The economic viability of feedlot Aberdeen Angus steers fed with diets composed of different concentrate levels (CL) in dry matter (25, 40, 55 or 70%) was estimated using Monte Carlo simulation combined with Spearman rank correlation, considering nine random input variables, as well as stochastic dominance (DOM) and sensitivity (SENS) analyses. For the financial indicator simulation, net present value (NPV), cash flow with indicators of performance, and the probability distribution of all cost and income items (from 2003 to 2014) were used. Latin hypercube sampling and a Mersenne Twister random number generator was employed for the simulation, which included 2000 interactions. The expected mean values ± standard deviation for NPV (USD/animal) were 44.94 ± 68.01, 44.50 ± 69.25, 15.39 ± 69.22 and 54.20 ± 71.58 for the diets containing 25, 40, 55 and 70% CL, respectively. The probability of NPV 0 was 76.8, 76.0, 57.9 and 78.1%, respectively, from the smallest to largest CL. The DOM analysis showed that 25 and 40% CL have similar probability curves, the 70% level dominated the remaining and all CL dominated 55%. According to SENS analysis, the items that most influenced the NPV were, in decreasing order, finished and feeder cattle price, initial and final weights, concentrate and roughage price, concentrate intake, minimum rate of attractiveness and roughage intake. Based on the simulation results, the 70% CL showed a higher NPV and greater likelihood of economic viability. The probabilistic simulation technique is an interesting tool for decision-making in investment projects with beef cattle feedlot, therefore, further studies in this line of research is recommended.

Estimou-se o risco da viabilidade econômica do confinamento de novilhos Aberdeen Angus alimentados com dietas com diferentes níveis de concentrado (NC) na matéria seca (25, 40, 55 ou 70%), utilizando simulação de Monte Carlo associado com o uso de correlação de Spearman entre nove variáveis aleatórias de entrada, dominância estocástica (DOM) e análise de sensibilidade (SENS). Para a simulação do indicador financeiro Valor Presente Líquido (VPL), foi utilizado fluxo de caixa com indicadores de desempenho e distribuição de probabilidade de todos os itens de custos e receitas (anos de 2003 a 2014). Amostragem de Hipercubo Latino e gerador de números aleatórios Mersenne Twister foram utilizados para a simulação com 2.000 interações. Os valores médios esperados para VPL ± desvio padrão (USD/animal) foram de: 44,94 ± 68,01; 44,50 ± 69,25; 15,39 ± 69,22 e 54,20 ± 71,58, respectivamente, para 25, 40, 55 e 70% NC. As probabilidades do VPL 0 foram 76,8%; 76,0%; 57,9% e 78,1%, respectivamente, do menor para maior NC. A análise de DOM demonstrou que 25 e 40% de concentrado apresentam curvas de probabilidade similares; 70% dominou os demais e 55% foi dominado por todos os NC. De acordo com a SENS, os itens que mais influenciaram no VPL foram, em ordem decrescente, os preços do boi gordo e magro, os pesos final e inicial, preços do concentrado e do volumoso, consumo de concentrado, taxa mínima de atratividade e consumo de volumoso. Com base nos resultados de simulação, o NC de 70% apresentou maior VPL e maior probabilidade de viabilidade econômica. A técnica de simulação probabilística demonstrou ser interessante ferramenta para tomada de decisões em projetos de investimento com confinamento de bovinos de corte, sugerindo a expansão de estudos nesta linha de pesquisa.

Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot steers fed with different proportions of concentrate / Simulação estocástica da viabilidade econômica do confinamento de novilhos alimentados com diferentes proporções de concentrado

The economic viability of feedlot zebu bulls, slaughtered at 450 kg after 90 days of feeding with diets consisting of different proportions of concentrate in dry matter (40, 60 or 80%), was estimated using Monte Carlo simulations, with or without the inclusion of Spearman rank correlations among random input variables, stochastic dominance (DOM) and sensitivity analysis (SENS). The roughage used was chopped sugar cane. Cash flow with indicators of performance, and probability distributions of all items of cost and revenue (from 2003 to 2014), were used to stimulate net present value (NPV), the financial indicator. Latin hypercube sampling and a Mersenne Twister random number generator were employed for the simulation with 2000 interactions. The risk was found to be more accurately estimated when correlations between random input variables were included (probability of NPV 0 ± standard deviation was 35 ± 166.05% and 31 ± 139.75% for the simulation without and with correlation, respectively). Considering this result, DOM and SENS were only carried out including these correlations. The expected value for NPV was similar between the different levels of concentrate (average USD -62/animal and NPV 0 of 33%) according to DOM analysis of simulations including correlations. From the SENS analysis, the final weight, finished cattle price, feeder cattle price and initial weight were the items with the greatest influence on NPV, regardless of the level of concentrate used, followed by intake and the cost-related items of diet and minimum rate of attractiveness. Based on the results obtained by simulation, the direct benefit of feedlot could be classified as high risk, suggesting the increased use of Monte Carlo simulation for decision-making.

Estimou-se o risco da viabilidade econômica do confinamento de bovinos zebuínos abatidos com 450 kg após 90 dias de alimentação, com dietas com diferentes proporções de concentrado na matéria seca (40, 60 ou 80%), utilizando simulação de Monte Carlo associado ou não com o uso de correlação de Spearman entre as variáveis aleatórias de entrada, dominância estocástica (DOM) e análise de sensibilidade (SENS). O volumoso utilizado foi cana-deaçúcar picada. Para a simulação do indicador financeiro Valor Presente Líquido (VPL), foi utilizado fluxo de caixa com indicadores de desempenho e distribuição de probabilidade de todos os itens de custos e receitas (anos de 2003 a 2014). Amostragem de Hipercubo Latino e gerador de números aleatórios Mersenne Twister foram utilizados para a simulação com 2.000 interações. O risco foi estimado com maior precisão incluindo correlações entre variáveis aleatórias de entrada (probabilidades de VPL 0 ± desvio padrão foram 35 ± 166,05% and 31 ± 139,75% para a simulação com e sem correlação, respectivamente). A partir deste resultado, DOM e SENS foram realizadas apenas com correlação entre variáveis aleatórias de entrada. O valor esperado para VPL foi semelhante entre os diferentes níveis de concentrado (média de USD -62 / animal e VPL 0 de 33%), de acordo com a análise de DOM das simulações com correlação. Na SENS, independentemente do nível de concentrado usado, o peso final, os preços do boi gordo e magro e peso inicial foram os itens mais importantes a influenciar o VPL, seguido de consumo da dieta, preços da dieta e taxa mínima de atratividade. Com base nos resultados de simulação, poderia ser classificado o benefício direto de confinamento como de alto risco, sugerindo a expansão dos estudos com uso da técnica de simulação de Monte Carlo na tomada de decisões.

Retention payoff-based cost per day open regression equations: Application in a user-friendly decision support tool for investment analysis of automated estrus detection technologies.

Assessing the economic implications of investing in automated estrus detection (AED) technologies can be overwhelming for dairy producers. The objectives of this study were to develop new regression equations for estimating the cost per day open (DO) and to apply the results to create a user-friendly, partial budget, decision support tool for investment analysis of AED technologies. In the resulting decision support tool, the end user can adjust herd-specific inputs regarding general management, current reproductive management strategies, and the proposed AED system. Outputs include expected DO, reproductive cull rate, net present value, and payback period for the proposed AED system. Utility of the decision support tool was demonstrated with an example dairy herd created using data from DairyMetrics (Dairy Records Management Systems, Raleigh, NC), Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (Columbia, MO), and published literature. Resulting herd size, rolling herd average milk production, milk price, and feed cost were 323 cows, 10,758kg, $0.41/kg, and $0.20/kg of dry matter, respectively. Automated estrus detection technologies with 2 levels of initial system cost (low: $5,000 vs. high: $10,000), tag price (low: $50 vs. high: $100), and estrus detection rate (low: 60% vs. high: 80%) were compared over a 7-yr investment period. Four scenarios were considered in a demonstration of the investment analysis tool: (1) a herd using 100% visual observation for estrus detection before adopting 100% AED, (2) a herd using 100% visual observation before adopting 75% AED and 25% visual observation, (3) a herd using 100% timed artificial insemination (TAI) before adopting 100% AED, and (4) a herd using 100% TAI before adopting 75% AED and 25% TAI. Net present value in scenarios 1 and 2 was always positive, indicating a positive investment situation. Net present value in scenarios 3 and 4 was always positive in combinations using a $50 tag price, and in scenario 4, the $5,000, $100, and 80% combination. Overall, the payback period ranged from 1.6 yr to greater than 10 yr. Investment analysis demonstration results were highly dependent on assumptions, especially AED system initial investment and labor costs. Dairy producers can use herd-specific inputs with the cost per day open regression equations and the decision support tool to estimate individual herd results.

SRWC bioenergy productivity and economic feasibility on marginal lands.

Evolving bioenergy markets necessitate consideration of marginal lands for woody biomass production worldwide particularly the southeastern U.S., a prominent wood pellet exporter to Europe. Growing short rotation woody crops (SRWCs) on marginal lands minimizes concerns about using croplands for bioenergy production and reinforces sustainability of wood supply to existing and growing global biomass markets. We estimated mean annual aboveground green biomass increments (MAIs) and assessed economic feasibility of various operationally established (0.5 ha-109 ha) SRWC stands on lands used to mitigate environmental liabilities of municipal wastewater, livestock wastewater and sludge, and subsurface contamination by petroleum and pesticides. MAIs (Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)) had no consistent relationship with stand density or age. Non-irrigated Populus, Plantanus occidentalis L. and Pinus taeda L. stands produced 2.4-12.4 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1). Older, irrigated Taxodium distchum L., Fraxinus pennsylvanica L., and coppiced P. occidentalis stands had higher MAIs (10.6-21.3 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)) than irrigated Liquidambar styraciflua L. and non-coppiced, irrigated P. occidentalis (8-18 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)). Natural hardwood MAIs at 20-60 years were less than hardwood and P. taeda productivities at 5-20 years. Unlike weed control, irrigation and coppicing improved managed hardwood productivity. Rotation length affected economic outcomes although the returns were poor due to high establishment and maintenance costs, low productivities and low current stumpage values, which are expected to quickly change with development of robust global markets.

Deterministic economic analysis of feedlot Red Angus young steers: slaughter weights and bonus / Análise econômica determinística do confinamento de novilhos Red Angus superjovens: pesos de abate e bonificações

The joint analysis of indicators of the investment project is very relevant in making decisions, resulting in more consistent information regarding risk assessment and its confrontation with the possibility of return. This research aimed to evaluate the economic feasibility of Red Angus young steers finished in feedlot, slaughtered at 340, 373, 396 or 430kg with use of various financial indicators, marketed with or without bonus. The purchase of feeder cattle and feeding were variable costs with a higher share in the total cost. In the analysis with bonus, the regression analysis to gross margin, net margin, net present value, benefit:cost index and additional return on investment showed quadratic behavior, with the point of maximum at 406kg (R$ 185.17), 406kg (R$ 161.76) , 393kg (R$ 128.29), 392kg (1.12), 392kg (11.98%), respectively. In the analysis without bonus, gross margin and net margin showed a quadratic response (346kg, with R$ 110.31 and R$ 86.90, respectively), while for the other indicators, there was a linear reduction as an increase in slaughter weight.

A análise conjunta de indicadores do projeto de investimento é muito relevante na tomada de decisões, resultando em informações mais consistentes da avaliação do risco e seu confronto com a possibilidade de retorno. Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar a viabilidade econômica da terminação de novilhos Red Angus superjovens em confinamento, abatidos com 340, 373, 396 ou 430kg, com uso de diversos indicadores financeiros, comercializados com ou sem bonificação. A compra dos bois magros e a dieta foram os custos variáveis ​​com maior participação no custo total. Na análise com bonificação, a análise de regressão para margem bruta, margem líquida, valor presente líquido, índice benefício:custo e retorno adicional sobre o investimento demonstrou comportamento quadrático, com ponto de máxima aos 406kg (R$ 185,17), 406kg (R$ 161,76), 393kg (R$ 128,29), 392kg (1,12), 392kg (11,98%), respectivamente. Na análise sem bonificação, margem bruta e margem líquida apresentaram comportamento quadrático (346kg, sendo de R$ 110,31 e R$ 86,90, respectivamente), enquanto que, para os demais indicadores, houve redução linear, conforme aumento no peso de abate.

An ex ante analysis on the use of activity meters for automated estrus detection: to invest or not to invest?

The technical performance of activity meters for automated detection of estrus in dairy farming has been studied, and such meters are already used in practice. However, information on the economic consequences of using activity meters is lacking. The current study analyzes the economic benefits of a sensor system for detection of estrus and appraises the feasibility of an investment in such a system. A stochastic dynamic simulation model was used to simulate reproductive performance of a dairy herd. The number of cow places in this herd was fixed at 130. The model started with 130 randomly drawn cows (in a Monte Carlo process) and simulated calvings and replacement of these cows in subsequent years. Default herd characteristics were a conception rate of 50%, an 8-wk dry-off period, and an average milk production level of 8,310 kg per cow per 305 d. Model inputs were derived from real farm data and expertise. For the analysis, visual detection by the farmer ("without" situation) was compared with automated detection with activity meters ("with" situation). For visual estrus detection, an estrus detection rate of 50% and a specificity of 100% were assumed. For automated estrus detection, an estrus detection rate of 80% and a specificity of 95% were assumed. The results of the cow simulation model were used to estimate the difference between the annual net cash flows in the "with" and "without" situations (marginal financial effect) and the internal rate of return (IRR) as profitability indicators. The use of activity meters led to improved estrus detection and, therefore, to a decrease in the average calving interval and subsequent increase in annual milk production. For visual estrus detection, the average calving interval was 419 d and average annual milk production was 1,032,278 kg. For activity meters, the average calving interval was 403 d and the average annual milk production was 1,043,398 kg. It was estimated that the initial investment in activity meters would cost €17,728 for a herd of 130 cows, with an additional cost of €90 per year for the replacement of malfunctioning activity meters. Changes in annual net cash flows arising from using an activity meter included extra revenues from increased milk production and number of calves sold, increased costs from more inseminations, calvings, and feed consumption, and reduced costs from fewer culled cows and less labor for estrus detection. These changes in cash flows were caused mainly by changes in the technical results of the simulated dairy herds, which arose from differences in the estrus detection rate and specificity between the "with" and "without" situations. The average marginal financial effect in the "with" and "without" situations was €2,827 for the baseline scenario, with an average IRR of 11%. The IRR is a measure of the return on invested capital. Investment in activity meters was generally profitable. The most influential assumptions on the profitability of this investment were the assumed culling rules and the increase in sensitivity of estrus detection between the "without" and the "with" situation.