Land use drives differential resource selection by African elephants in the Greater Mara Ecosystem, Kenya.

Understanding drivers of space use by African elephants is critical to their conservation and management, particularly given their large home-ranges, extensive resource requirements, ecological role as ecosystem engineers, involvement in human-elephant conflict and as a target species for ivory poaching. In this study we investigated resource selection by elephants inhabiting the Greater Mara Ecosystem in Southwestern Kenya in relation to three distinct but spatially contiguous management zones: (i) the government protected Maasai Mara National Reserve (ii) community-owned wildlife conservancies, and (iii) elephant range outside any formal wildlife protected area. We combined GPS tracking data from 49 elephants with spatial covariate information to compare elephant selection across these management zones using a hierarchical Bayesian framework, providing insight regarding how human activities structure elephant spatial behavior. We also contrasted differences in selection by zone across several data strata: sex, season and time-of-day. Our results showed that the strongest selection by elephants was for closed-canopy forest and the strongest avoidance was for open-cover, but that selection behavior varied significantly by management zone and selection for cover was accentuated in human-dominated areas. When contrasting selection parameters according to strata, variability in selection parameter values reduced along a protection gradient whereby elephants tended to behave more similarly (limited plasticity) in the human dominated, unprotected zone and more variably (greater plasticity) in the protected reserve. However, avoidance of slope was consistent across all zones. Differences in selection behavior was greatest between sexes, followed by time-of-day, then management zone and finally season (where seasonal selection showed the least differentiation of the contrasts assessed). By contrasting selection coefficients across strata, our analysis quantifies behavioural switching related to human presence and impact displayed by a cognitively advanced megaherbivore. Our study broadens the knowledge base about the movement ecology of African elephants and builds our capacity for both management and conservation.

Participatory and Spatially Explicit Assessment to Envision the Future of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Scenarios on Selected Ecosystem Services in Southwestern Ghana.

Settlement expansion and commercial agriculture affect landscape sustainability and ecosystem service provision. Integrated landscape approaches are promoted to negotiate trade-offs between competing land uses and their reconciliation. Incorporating local perceptions of landscape dynamics as basis for such negotiations is particularly relevant for sub-Saharan Africa, where most people depend on natural ecosystems for livelihoods and well-being. This study applied participatory scenario building and spatially explicit simulation to unravel perceptions of the potential impact of rubber and settlement expansion on the provision of selected ecosystem services in southwestern Ghana under a business-as-usual scenario. We collected data in workshops and expert surveys on locally relevant ecosystem services, their indicator values, and the probable land-use transitions. The data was translated into an assessment matrix and integrated into a spatially explicit modeling platform, allowing visualization and comparison of the impact on ecosystem service provision of land-use scenarios under rubber plantation and settlement expansion. The results show the capacity of current (2020) and future land-use patterns to provide locally relevant ecosystem services, indicating a decline in capacity of ecosystem service provisioning in the future compared to the 2020 land-use patterns, a threat to the benefits humans derive from ecosystems. This highlights urgent need for policies and measures to control the drivers of land-use/land-cover change. Furthermore, the results emphasize the importance of diversifying land-use/land-cover types for sustainable landscape development. The paper contributes new insights into how spatially explicit and semi-quantitative methods can make stakeholder perceptions of landscape dynamics explicit as a basis for implementing integrated landscape approaches.

Socio-Ecological Approach to a Forest-Swamp-Savannah Mosaic Landscape Using Remote Sensing and Local Knowledge: a Case Study in the Bas-Ogooué Ramsar Site, Gabon.

Studies of landscape dynamics in protected areas often rely exclusively on remotely-sensed data, leading to bias by neglecting how local inhabitants, who often have a long history of interaction with their environment, perceive and structure the landscape over time. Using a socio-ecological system (SES) approach in a forest-swamp-savannah mosaic within the Bas-Ogooué Ramsar site in Gabon, we assess how human populations participate in landscape dynamics over time. We first conducted a remote sensing analysis to produce a land-cover map representing the biophysical dimension of the SES. This map is based on pixel-oriented classifications, using a 2017 Sentinel-2 satellite image and 610 GPS points, that categorized the landscape in 11 ecological classes. To study the landscape's social dimension, we collected data on local knowledge to understand how local people perceive and use the landscape. These data were collected through 19 semi-structured individual interviews, three focus groups and 3 months of participant observation during an immersive field mission. We developed a systemic approach by combining data on biophysical and social dimensions of the landscape. Our analysis shows that in the absence of continued anthropic interventions, both savannahs and swamps dominated by herbaceous vegetation will experience closure by encroaching woody vegetation, leading to eventual biodiversity loss. Our methodology based on an SES approach to landscapes could improve the conservation programs developed by Ramsar site managers. Designing actions at the local scale, rather than applying one set of actions to the entire protected area, allows the integration of human perceptions, practices and expectations, a challenge that is more than essential in the context of global change.

A timely method for post-disaster assessment and coastal landscape survey using drone and satellite imagery.

To mitigate floods and storm surges, coastal communities across the globe are under the pressure of high-cost interventions, such as coastal barriers, jetties, and renourishment projects, especially in areas prone to hurricanes and other natural disturbances. To evaluate the effectiveness of these coastal projects in a timely fashion, this methodology is supported by a Geographic Information System that is instaneously fed by regional and local data obtained shortly (24 h) after the disturbance event. Our study assesses the application of 3D models based on aerophotogrammetry from a Phantom 4 RTK drone, following a methodological flowchart with three phases. The Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) based on aerophotogrammetry obtained from a Phantom 4 RTK drone presented a low margin of error (± 5 cm) to dispense Ground Control Points. This technique enables a rapid assessment of inaccessible coastal areas due, for instance, to hurricane impacts. Evaluation of DEMs before and after the disturbance event allows quantifying the magnitudes of shoreline retreat, storm surges, difference in coastal sedimentary volumes, and identifying areas where erosion and sediment accretion occur. Orthomosaics permit the individualization and quantification of changes in vegetation units/geomorphological areas and damages to urban and coastal infrastructure. Our experience monitoring coastal dynamics in North and South America during the last decade indicates that this methodology provides an essential data flow for short and long-term decision-making regarding strategies to mitigate disaster impacts.•Permanent and regional monitoring with spatial-temporal analysis based on satellite/aerial images and lidar data prior to the event.•Local DEMs based on drone aerophotogrammetry after the event.•Integration of regional and local planialtimetric/environmental data.

The effects of landscape change on habitat quality in arid desert areas based on future scenarios: Tarim River Basin as a case study.

Human activities have caused spatiotemporal patterns of land use and land cover (LULC) change. The LULC change has directly affected habitat quality (HQ) and ecosystem functions. Assessing, simulating, and predicting spatiotemporal changes and future trends under different scenarios of LULC-influenced HQ is beneficial to land use planners and decision-makers, helping them to formulate plans in a sustainable and responsible way. This study assesses and simulates the HQ of the Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the future land use simulation model (FLUS), the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, and partial least squares regression (PLSR). Since 2000, the TRB has experienced a declining trend in HQ from 0.449 to 0.444, especially in the lower elevations (740-2000m) and on sloped land (<10°). The decline will continue unless effective and sustainable plans are implemented to halt it. Agricultural and settlement areas have a lower HQ and a higher degree of habitat degradation than native habitats. This shows that the expansion of oasis agriculture (with an annual growth rate of 372.17 km2) and settlements (with an annual growth rate of 23.50 km2) has caused a decline in native habitat and subsequent habitat fragmentation. In other words, changes in LULC have caused a decline in the HQ. Moreover, there is a significant negative correlation between HQ and urbanization rate (p<0.01), and the PLSR also indicate that number of patches (NP), area-weighted mean fractal dimension index (FRAC_AM), percentage of landscape (PLAND), and largest patch index (LPI) were also important contributors to worsening the HQ. Therefore, the TRB urgently needs appropriate strategies to preserve its natural habitats into the future, based on the ecological priority scenario (EPS) and harmonious development scenario (HDS), which can help to maintain a high-quality habitat.

Dispersal without drivers: Intrinsic and extrinsic variables have no impact on movement distances in a terrestrial amphibian.

Dispersive movements are often thought to be multicausal and driven by individual body size, sex, conspecific density, environmental variation, personality, and/or other variables. Yet such variables often do not account for most of the variation among dispersive movements in nature, leaving open the possibility that dispersion may be indeterministic. We assessed the amount of variation in 24 h movement distances that could be accounted for by potential drivers of displacement with a large empirical dataset of movement distances performed by Fowler's Toads (Anaxyrus fowleri) on the northern shore of Lake Erie at Long Point, Ontario (2002-2021, incl.). These toads are easy to sample repeatedly, can be identified individually and move parallel to the shoreline as they forage at night, potentially dispersing to new refuge sites. Using a linear mixed-effect model that incorporated random effect terms to account for sampling variance and inter-annual variation, we found that all potential intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of movement accounted for virtually none of the variation observed among 24 h distances moved by these animals, whether over short or large spatial scales. We examined the idea of movement personality by testing variance per individual toad and found no evidence of individuality in movement distances. We conclude that deterministic variables, whether intrinsic or extrinsic, neither can be shown to nor are necessary to drive movements in this population over all spatial scales. Stochastic, short time-scale movements, such as daily foraging movements, can instead accumulate over time to produce large spatial-scale movements that are dispersive in nature.

Anticipating B. sempervirens viability in front of C. perspectalis outbreaks, fire, and drought disturbances.

Forest ecosystems face an increasing pressure of insect pest outbreaks due to changes in land-use, new climatic conditions, and the arrival of new invasive alien species. Also, insect outbreaks may interact with other shifting disturbances such as fire and drought, that eventually may boost the impacts of pests on forest ecosystems. In the case of alien species, the lack of long-term data and their rapid spread challenges their study and require appropriate new management strategies to cope with them. Here we studied the case of boxwoods (Buxus sempervirens) in Southern Pyrenees under the pressure of the invasive insect box tree moth (Cydalima perspectalis), fire, and drought events. We projected the future of boxwoods through the development of a spatially explicit simulation model and its implementation under different climatic and ecological scenarios. The results showed an initial boxwood decline due to C. perspectalis fast spread but a later stabilization of the population resulting from a fluctuating dynamic. Climate change is expected to reduce overall insect habitat suitability and future negative impacts on boxwoods. Furthermore, boxwood drought-induced mortality and burning will increase under new climatic conditions. Interaction between drought and insect pest conditioning regeneration after defoliation were negligible in our analyses. Boxwood decline was anticipated to be more notorious in locations under 800 m a.s.l. and in habitats where the species dominates the forest understory, while boxwood in open shrub forest types typical of higher elevations will be less endangered. Our results provide valuable information for boxwood and C. perspectalis management in a context of joint disturbance impacts and contribute to a better identification of the role of forest disturbances and their interactions.

Predicting the responses of subalpine forest landscape dynamics to climate change on the eastern Tibetan Plateau.

Subalpine vegetation across the Tibetan Plateau is globally one of the most sensitive to climate change. However, the potential landscape-scale effects of climate change on subalpine forest dynamics remain largely unexplored. Here, we used a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) coupled with a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-II) to simulate forest dynamics under future climate change in Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in the eastern subalpine region of the Tibetan Plateau. We examined changes in the composition, distribution and aboveground biomass of cold temperate coniferous forests, temperate coniferous forests, deciduous broad-leaved forests and redwood forest under four climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and the current climate) from 2016 to 2096. Our model predicts that by 2096, (i) cold temperate coniferous forests will expand and increase by 7.92%, 8.18%, 8.65% and 7.02% under current climate, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively; (ii) distribution of forests as a whole shows upward elevational range shift, especially under RCP8.5 scenario and (iii) total aboveground biomass slowly increases at first and then decreases to 12%-16% of current distribution under RCPs. These results show that climate change can be expected to significantly influence forest composition, distribution and aboveground biomass in the subalpine forests of eastern Tibetan Plateau. This study is the first to simulate forest dynamics at the landscape scale in subalpine areas of the Tibetan Plateau, which provides an important step in developing more effective strategies of forest management for expected climate change, not only in China but also around the world.

Spatiotemporal patterns and ecological consequences of a fragmented landscape created by damming.

BACKGROUND: Damming disrupts rivers and destroys neighboring terrestrial ecosystems through inundation, resulting in profound and long-lasting impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem processes far beyond the river system itself. Archipelagos formed by damming are often considered ideal systems for studying habitat fragmentation. METHODS: Here we quantified the island attributes and landscape dynamics of the Thousand Island Lake (TIL) in China, which is one of the several long-term biodiversity/fragmentation research sites around the world. We also synthesized the major findings of relevant studies conducted in the region to further ecological understanding of damming and landscape fragmentation. RESULTS: Our results show that the vegetations on islands and the neighboring mainland were both recovering between 1985 and 2005 due to reforestation and natural succession, but the regeneration was partly interrupted after 2005 because of increasing human influences. While major changes in landscape composition occurred primarily in the lakefront areas and near-lakeshore islands, landscape patterns became structurally more complex and fragmented on both islands and mainland. About 80 studies from the TIL region show that the genetic, taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity on these islands were mainly influenced by island area at the patch scale, but fragmentation per se also affected species composition and related ecological processes at patch and landscape scales. In general, islands had lower species diversity but a steeper species-area relationship than the surrounding mainland. Fragmentation and edge effects substantially hindered ecological succession towards more densely vegetated forests on the islands. Environmental heterogeneity and filtering had a major impact on island biotic communities. We hypothesize that there are multiple mechanisms operating at different spatial scales that link landscape fragmentation and ecological dynamics in the TIL region, which beg for future studies. By focusing on an extensive spatiotemporal analysis of the island-mainland system and a synthesis of existing studies in the region, this study provides an important foundation and several promising directions for future studies.

Floristic and Vegetation Changes on a Small Mediterranean Island over the Last Century.

A synthetic and updated overview about the vascular flora and vegetation of the Island of Capo Passero (SE-Sicily) is provided. These data issue from two series of field surveys-the first carried out between 1997 and 2000, and the second between 2005 and 2019 and mostly focused on refining and implementing vegetation data. The current islet's flora consists of 269 taxa, of which 149 (58%) are annual plants. The Mediterranean species are largely prevailing, 108 (40%) of which have a strictly Mediterranean biogeographical status. The comparison with a species list published in 1919 and updated in 1957 suggest that, despite the overall prevalence of anemochorous taxa, the vertebrate fauna represents an important vector for the plant colonization of the island, while the immigration of myrmechocorous taxa does not compensate the extinction rate. As many as 202 phytosociological relevés, 191 of which issue from original recent field surveys, enabled identifying 12 different plant communities. The comparison with a vegetation map published in 1965 suggests a strong reduction in dune habitats (2120 and 2210 according to EU 'Habitats' Directive 92/43), as well as a deep disruption in the succession typical of the local psammophilous vegetation series. In order to preserve rare, endangered and protected plant species (such as Aeluropus lagopoides, Cichorium spinosum, Limonium hyblaeum, L. syracusanum, Poterium spinosum, Senecio pygmaeus and Spergularia heldreichii) and to stop the ongoing habitat degradation, urgent and effective conservation measures should be adopted for this tiny, yet precious islet.

Geo-visualization of landscape dynamics in the proposed mega industrial corridor.

Urbanization is associated with large-scale irreversible landscape changes in response to the demands of burgeoning population, etc. Lack of basic amenities, job, and infrastructures in rural areas often drives migration towards the urbanizing landscapes. Urbanization is resource centric, which involves, large-scale transformation of the landscape with the irreversible impacts on the regional ecology, hydrology, and environment, which is evident from large-scale land cover changes leading to deforestation, encroachment of lakes/water bodies, forest, and farmlands, conversion of agriculture landscapes, etc. damaging the environs. Visualization of urban growth based on the past spatial patterns would help in evolving appropriate policy framework towards the design of sustainable cites for the prudent management of natural resources. Current communication attempts to understand the landscape dynamics along the proposed Mumbai-Pune industrial corridor (with 10 km buffer) through (i) rule-based/non agent-based models (non-ABM) and (ii) agent-based models (ABM) with the evaluation of relative performance of ABM and non-ABM methods. Comparative assessment of the model performance through accuracy assessment and Kappa (relatively significant at p < 0.05) indicates the superior performance of the agent-based model approaches due to its interaction with factors and constraints that allow urban growth in the region. Non-ABM model predicted the growth of 49.69% by 2027 with the decline of vegetation to 9.63%. Compared to this, agent-based model predicted growth in urban landscape to 47.12% and the decline of vegetation to 11.10%. The current research was formulated based on the recommendations of the deliberation between academia and stakeholder industries that are likely to be benefitted by the implementation of the industrial corridor. The research outcome also helps local planning authorities in advance visualization of urban dynamics to design sustainable urban regions with the provision of appropriate infrastructure and basic amenities.

Physical, ecological and human dimensions of environmental change in Brazil's Pantanal wetland: Synthesis and research agenda.

The Pantanal is the world's largest freshwater wetland, located in the geographical centre of South America. It is relatively well conserved, and features unique landscapes, ecosystems, and traditional cultural practices, shaped by the dynamic interaction of climatological, hydrological, geological, ecological, and anthropogenic factors. Its ecological integrity is increasingly threatened by human activities, particularly, in the wider catchment area, for example, deforestation, agricultural intensification, and construction of hydropower plants, with implications for local people's livelihoods. We present a synthesis of current literature on physical, ecological, and human dimensions of environmental change in the wetland, outline key research gaps, and discuss environmental management implications. The literature review suggests that better integration of insights from multiple disciplines is needed and that environmental management could be improved through a better grounding in traditional practices and local perspectives. We conclude with four recommendations: First, future environmental change research should build more strongly on the positive example of a small number of case studies where traditional and local knowledge of the environment was put into a dialogue with scientific knowledge and techniques. Second, we recommend a more explicit consideration of longer temporal scales (>10 years) in environmental change research, making use of oral and written histories, as well as palaeoecological techniques, to understand system responses to different magnitudes of human and climatic pressures, and ultimately, to inform future adaptation activities. Third, we suggest that enhanced stakeholder participation in conceiving and implementing research projects in the Pantanal would strengthen the practical relevance of research in addressing environmental management challenges, livelihood needs, and advocacy processes. Fourth, we call for a more systemic and integrative perspective on environmental education, which encompasses engagement activities between researchers, policy-makers, and citizens, to foster environmental awareness, scientific literacy, and public participation.

Phylogeography of Bellamya (Mollusca: Gastropoda: Viviparidae) snails on different continents: contrasting patterns of diversification in China and East Africa.

BACKGROUND: Species diversity is determined by both local environmental conditions that control differentiation and extinction and the outcome of large-scale processes that affect migration. The latter primarily comprises climatic change and dynamic landscape alteration. In the past few million years, both Southeast Asia and Eastern Africa experienced drastic climatic and geological oscillations: in Southeast Asia, especially in China, the Tibetan Plateau significantly rose up, and the flow of the Yangtze River was reversed. In East Africa, lakes and rivers experienced frequent range expansions and regressions due to the African mega-droughts. To test how such climatic and geological histories of both regions relate to their respective regional species and genetic diversity, a large scale comparative phylogeographic study is essential. Bellamya, a species rich freshwater snail genus that is widely distributed across China and East Africa, represents a suitable model system to address this question. We sequenced mitochondrial and nuclear DNA for members of the genus from China and used published sequences from Africa and some other locations in Asia to investigate their phylogeny and distribution of genetic diversity. RESULTS: Our phylogenetic analysis revealed two monophyletic groups, one in China and one in East Africa. Within the Chinese group, Bellamya species show little genetic differentiation. In contrast, we observe fairly deep divergence among the East African lakes with almost every lake possessing its unique clade. Our results show that strong divergence does not necessarily depend on intrinsic characteristics of a species, but rather is related to the landscape dynamics of a region. CONCLUSION: Our phylogenetic results suggest that the Bellamya in China and East Africa are independent phylogenetic clades with different evolutionary trajectories. The different climate and geological histories likely contributed to the diverging evolutionary patterns. Repeated range expansions and regressions of lakes likely contributed to the great divergence of Bellamya in East Africa, while reversal of the river courses and intermingling of different lineages had an opposite effect on Bellamya diversification in China.

Beyond Migration: Causes and Consequences of Nomadic Animal Movements.

Recent advances in animal tracking reveal that many species display irregular movements that do not fall into classical categories of movement patterns such as range residency or migration. Here, we develop a unifying framework that distinguishes these nomadic movements based on their patterns, drivers, and mechanisms. Though they occur in diverse taxa and geographic regions, nomadic movements are united by both their underlying environmental drivers, mainly environmental stochasticity, and the resulting irregular, far-ranging movement patterns. The framework further classifies types of nomadic movements, including full, seasonal, phase, irruptive, and partial nomadism. Nomadic movements can have unique effects on populations, communities, and ecosystems, most notably providing intermittent disturbances and novel introductions of propagules.

Land use and biotic integrity in shallow streams of the Hondo River basin, Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico / Uso del suelo e integridad biótica en arroyos someros de la cuenca del río Hondo, península de Yucatán, México

Abstract Aquatic environments face a variety of threats in the Hondo River basin, Southeastern Yucatán Peninsula. Some of these impacts, like pollution by pesticides, may depend on land use and cover. Our objective was to assess the effect of land use/cover using a previously published index of biotic integrity (IBI), based on fishes and designed for shallow streams in the Hondo River basin. Our hypothesis was that land uses that cause deforestation and pollution, such as urbanization, cattle breeding, or sugar cane fields, would be reflected in low IBI values, at least at some spatial scales. The 23 sites originally used in 2008-2009 to estimate by electrofishing the relative abundance and other characteristics of selected fish species and guilds to construct the IBI, were revisited in February 2010, to validate by direct inspection the type of land use/cover suggested by landscape information in digital databases. We analyzed the effect of seven types of land use/cover (agriculture, pasture, human settlements, water bodies, wetlands, forest, and secondary vegetation) on the IBI values, at four spatial scales, i.e., the percent of every land use/cover at progressively larger circles (125, 250, 500, and 1 000 m diameter) centered on the water body where the IBI value was measured. Correlations were established among the percent land/use cover by scale around 23 sites, and with their corresponding IBI values. Then, Student's t tests were calculated to examine significant differences in land use/cover between groups of localities above and below the median IBI value, and Mann-Whitney's U tests were applied to compare IBI values between localities with andwithout a given landscape cover. Agriculture, human settlements, and secondary vegetation correlated negatively with the IBI; forests positively. Differences were significant (p<0.05) for forest (higher in sites with higher IBI values) and human settlements (lower in sites with higher IBI). Of all the landscape categories located in the Hondo River basin, with the exception of pasture, those of anthropogenic origin tended to be detrimental to aquatic biotic integrity.

Resumen Los ambientes acuáticos en la cuenca del río Hondo, sureste de la península de Yucatán, enfrentan diversas amenazas. Algunos de estos impactos, e.g. contaminación por plaguicidas, pueden depender del uso de suelo o cobertura. El objetivo fue evaluar el efecto del uso del suelo/cobertura sobre un índice biótico de integridad (IBI) basado en peces, publicado previamente, diseñado para arroyos someros en esta cuenca. La hipótesis era que los usos del suelo que involucran deforestación y contaminación, entre ellos urbanización, ganadería o cultivo de caña de azúcar, se verían reflejados en valores bajos del IBI, por lo menos a ciertas escalas espaciales. Los 23 sitios usados originalmente para estimar por electropesca la abundancia relativa y otras características de especies y gremios selectos de peces, para construir el IBI, fueron visitados de nuevo en febrero 2010 para validar por inspección directa el tipo de uso del suelo/cobertura sugerido por la información de paisaje en bases de datos digitales. Se analizó el efecto de siete tipos de uso del suelo/cobertura (agricultura, ganadería, asentamientos humanos, cuerpos de agua, humedales, bosque y vegetación secundaria) sobre los valores del IBI, a cuatro escalas espaciales, i.e., el porcentaje de cada uso del suelo/cobertura en círculos progresivamente mayores (125, 250, 500 y 1 000 m de diámetro) centrados en el cuerpo de agua donde se midió el valor del IBI. Los porcentajes de uso del suelo/cobertura por escala se correlacionaron entre sí y con los valores correspondientes del IBI para explorar su asociación; luego, mediante pruebas t de Student se buscaron diferencias significativas en cobertura entre grupos de localidades por encima y por debajo del valor mediano del IBI, así como pruebas U de Mann-Whitney para comparar valores del IBI entre localidades con o sin una cobertura dada. La agricultura, asentamientos humanos y vegetación secundaria mostraron una relación negativa con el IBI, lo cual sugiere un impacto de las actividades humanas sobre la salud de los ecosistemas acuáticos. Las diferencias fueron significativas para el bosque (mayor en sitios con mejor integridad acuática) y los asentamientos humanos (menor en sitios con mayor valor del IBI). De todas las clases paisajísticas en la cuenca del río Hondo, las de origen antrópico, excepto los pastizales para ganadería, tendieron a ser perjudiciales para la integridad biótica acuática.

Deforestation and Carbon Loss in Southwest Amazonia: Impact of Brazil's Revised Forest Code.

In 2012 Brazil's National Congress altered the country's Forest Code, decreasing various environmental protections in the set of regulations governing forests. This suggests consequences in increased deforestation and emissions of greenhouse gases and in decreased protection of fragile ecosystems. To ascertain the effects, a simulation was run to the year 2025 for the municipality (county) of Boca do Acre, Amazonas state, Brazil. A baseline scenario considered historical behavior (which did not respect the Forest Code), while two scenarios considered full compliance with the old Forest Code (Law 4771/1965) and the current Code (Law 12,651/2012) regarding the protection of "areas of permanent preservation" (APPs) along the edges of watercourses. The models were parameterized from satellite imagery and simulated using Dinamica-EGO software. Deforestation actors and processes in the municipality were observed in loco in 2012. Carbon emissions and loss of forest by 2025 were computed in the three simulation scenarios. There was a 10% difference in the loss of carbon stock and of forest between the scenarios with the two versions of the Forest Code. The baseline scenario showed the highest loss of carbon stocks and the highest increase in annual emissions. The greatest damage was caused by not protecting wetlands and riparian zones.

Advances in global sensitivity analyses of demographic-based species distribution models to address uncertainties in dynamic landscapes.

Developing a rigorous understanding of multiple global threats to species persistence requires the use of integrated modeling methods that capture processes which influence species distributions. Species distribution models (SDMs) coupled with population dynamics models can incorporate relationships between changing environments and demographics and are increasingly used to quantify relative extinction risks associated with climate and land-use changes. Despite their appeal, uncertainties associated with complex models can undermine their usefulness for advancing predictive ecology and informing conservation management decisions. We developed a computationally-efficient and freely available tool (GRIP 2.0) that implements and automates a global sensitivity analysis of coupled SDM-population dynamics models for comparing the relative influence of demographic parameters and habitat attributes on predicted extinction risk. Advances over previous global sensitivity analyses include the ability to vary habitat suitability across gradients, as well as habitat amount and configuration of spatially-explicit suitability maps of real and simulated landscapes. Using GRIP 2.0, we carried out a multi-model global sensitivity analysis of a coupled SDM-population dynamics model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in Mount Rainier National Park as a case study and quantified the relative influence of input parameters and their interactions on model predictions. Our results differed from the one-at-time analyses used in the original study, and we found that the most influential parameters included the total amount of suitable habitat within the landscape, survival rates, and effects of a prevalent disease, white pine blister rust. Strong interactions between habitat amount and survival rates of older trees suggests the importance of habitat in mediating the negative influences of white pine blister rust. Our results underscore the importance of considering habitat attributes along with demographic parameters in sensitivity routines. GRIP 2.0 is an important decision-support tool that can be used to prioritize research, identify habitat-based thresholds and management intervention points to improve probability of species persistence, and evaluate trade-offs of alternative management options.

Effects of local extinction of the plains vizcacha (Lagostomus maximus) on vegetation patterns in semi-arid scrub.

We studied spatial and temporal effects of local extinction of the plains vizcacha (Lagostomus maximus) on plant communities following widespread, natural extinctions of vizcachas in semi-arid scrub of Argentina. Spatial patterns in vegetation were examined along transects extending outward from active and extinct vizcacha burrow systems. Responses of vegetation to removal of vizcachas were assessed experimentally with exclosures and by documenting vegetation dynamics for 6 years following extinctions. Transect data demonstrated clear spatial patterns in plant cover, particularly an increase in perennial grasses, outward from active vizcacha burrows. These patterns were consistent with predictions based on foraging theory and studies that document grasses as the preferred food of vizcachas. Removal of vizcachas, experimentally and with extinctions, resulted in an immediate increase in perennial and annual forbs indicating that intense herbivory can depress forb cover, as well as grasses. After a 1-year lag following cessation of herbivory, cover of grasses increased. Forbs declined as grasses increased. The long-term effect of extinction of vizcachas was a conversion of colony sites from open patches dominated by forbs to dense bunch grass characteristic of the matrix. Major changes in vegetation occurred within 2-3 years after extinction, resulting in a large pulse of landscape change. However, some species of grasses were uncommon until 5-6 years after the vizcacha extinction. With extinction and colonization, vizcachas generate a dynamic mosaic of patches on the landscape and create temporal, as well as spatial, heterogeneity in semi-arid scrub.