Brain state dynamics differ between eyes open and eyes closed rest.

The human brain exhibits spatio-temporally complex activity even in the absence of external stimuli, cycling through recurring patterns of activity known as brain states. Thus far, brain state analysis has primarily been restricted to unimodal neuroimaging data sets, resulting in a limited definition of state and a poor understanding of the spatial and temporal relationships between states identified from different modalities. Here, we applied hidden Markov model (HMM) to concurrent electroencephalography-functional magnetic resonance imaging (EEG-fMRI) eyes open (EO) and eyes closed (EC) resting-state data, training models on the EEG and fMRI data separately, and evaluated the models' ability to distinguish dynamics between the two rest conditions. Additionally, we employed a general linear model approach to identify the BOLD correlates of the EEG-defined states to investigate whether the fMRI data could be used to improve the spatial definition of the EEG states. Finally, we performed a sliding window-based analysis on the state time courses to identify slower changes in the temporal dynamics, and then correlated these time courses across modalities. We found that both models could identify expected changes during EC rest compared to EO rest, with the fMRI model identifying changes in the activity and functional connectivity of visual and attention resting-state networks, while the EEG model correctly identified the canonical increase in alpha upon eye closure. In addition, by using the fMRI data, it was possible to infer the spatial properties of the EEG states, resulting in BOLD correlation maps resembling canonical alpha-BOLD correlations. Finally, the sliding window analysis revealed unique fractional occupancy dynamics for states from both models, with a selection of states showing strong temporal correlations across modalities. Overall, this study highlights the efficacy of using HMMs for brain state analysis, confirms that multimodal data can be used to provide more in-depth definitions of state and demonstrates that states defined across different modalities show similar temporal dynamics.

Similar QALY gain in primary and revision knee arthroplasty: A cost analysis and Markov model.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study is to investigate the cost-effectiveness of revision total knee arthroplasty compared to primary total knee arthroplasty in terms of cost-per-quality-adjusted life year (QALY). METHODS: Data were retrieved for all primary and revision total knee replacement (TKA) procedures performed at a tertiary Swiss hospital between 2006 and 2019. A Markov model was created to evaluate revision risk and we calculated lifetime QALY gain and lifetime procedure costs through individual EuroQol 5 dimension (EQ-5D) scores, hospital costs, national life expectancy tables and standard discounting processes. Cost-per-QALY gain was calculated for primary and revision procedures. RESULTS: EQ-5D data were available for 1343 primary and 103 revision procedures. Significant QALY gains were seen following surgery in all cases. Similar, but significantly more QALYs were gained following primary TKA (PTKA) (5.67 ± 3.98) than following revision TKA (RTKA) (4.67 ± 4.20). Cost-per-QALY was €4686 for PTKA and €10,364 for RTKA. The highest average cost-per-QALY was seen in two-stage RTKA (€12,292), followed by one-stage RTKA (€8982). CONCLUSION: RTKA results in a similar QALY gain as PTKA. The costs of achieving health gain are two to three times higher in RTKA, but both procedures are highly cost-effective. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Economic level II.

Belatacept-based immunosuppression does not confer increased risk of BK polyomavirus-DNAemia relative to tacrolimus-based immunosuppression.

BACKGROUND: The effect of belatacept on BK polyomavirus (BKPyV) control remains largely unknown. METHODS: This is a propensity matched retrospective cohort study in adult kidney transplant recipients (KTR) transplanted between 2016-2020 who received a belatacept- versus tacrolimus-based immunosuppression regimen. A continuous time multi-state Markov model was used to evaluate BKPyV replication dynamics (BKPyV-dyn). Three BKPyV-dyn states were defined: BKPyV-dyn1 (viral load <3 log10), BKPyV-dyn2 (viral load ≥ 3 log10 and ≤4 log10), and BKPyV-dyn3 (viral load >4 log10). RESULTS: Two hundred eighty KTR on belatacept- and 280 KTR on tacrolimus-based regimens were compared. The probability of transitioning between BKPyV-dyn states and time spent in each state in both groups was comparable. Total duration in BKPyV-dyn-1 was 632.1 days (95% CI 612.1, 648.5) for belatacept versus 615.2 days (95% CI 592.5, 635.8) for tacrolimus, BKPyV-dyn-2 was 49.2 days (95% CI 41.3, 58.4) for belatacept versus 55.6 days (95% CI 46.5, 66.8) for tacrolimus, and BKPyV-dyn-3 was 48.7 days (95% CI 37.1, 363.1) for belatacept versus 59.2 days (95% CI 45.8, 73.5) for tacrolimus. BKPyV associated nephropathy (PyVAN) occurred in 3.9% in belatacept- and 3.9% tacrolimus-treated KRT (P > .9). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with tacrolimus-based immunosuppression, belatacept based immunosuppression was not associated with increased risk of BKPyV-DNAemia or nephropathy.

Fuzzy random sensitivity analysis for the overall structure reliability of reinforced concrete freezing wellbores in deep alluvium based on hidden Markov model.

To address the shortcomings of traditional reliability theory in characterizing the stability of deep underground structures, the advanced first order second moment of reliability was improved to obtain fuzzy random reliability, which is more consistent with the working conditions. The traditional sensitivity analysis model was optimized using fuzzy random optimization, and an analytical calculation model of the mean and standard deviation of the fuzzy random reliability sensitivity was established. A big data hidden Markov model and expectation-maximization algorithm were used to improve the digital characteristics of fuzzy random variables. The fuzzy random sensitivity optimization model was used to confirm the effect of concrete compressive strength, thick-diameter ratio, reinforcement ratio, uncertainty coefficient of calculation model, and soil depth on the overall structural reliability of a reinforced concrete double-layer wellbore in deep alluvial soil. Through numerical calculations, these characteristics were observed to be the main influencing factors. Furthermore, while the soil depth was negatively correlated, the other influencing factors were all positively correlated with the overall reliability. This study provides an effective reference for the safe construction of deep underground structures in the future.

Polypill versus medication monotherapy in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases in Iran: An economic evaluation study.

Background and Aims: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are one of the major diseases in developing and developed countries and have high prevalence and mortality rates. Pharmacological interventions, especially the use of combination medications, can have preventive effects in patients with CVDs. Recently, in the PolyIran trial, a combination of atorvastatin, hydrochlorothiazide, aspirin, and valsartan or enalapril (Polypill) was shown to be effective in providing survival benefits as a primary prevention strategy. In the present study, we examine the cost-effectiveness of the use of polypill compared to its individual components (named as medication monotherapy) in the prevention of CVDs in Iran. Methods: This was an economic evaluation study conducted to compare the cost-utility of polypill with that of medication monotherapy for 10,000 hypothetical cohorts of people over 35 years of age using the Markov model and with a lifetime horizon. The study perspective was patient perspective and direct medical costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio were estimated. To deal with uncertaintysensitivity analyses were used. Results: The results showed that polypill, with the lowest costs (871 USD) and highest QALYs (14.55), had the most cost-utility than medication monotherapy. Also, the results showed that the highest sensitivities were related to the utilities of angina and stroke states. At the 21,768 USD threshold, polypill had a 92% probability of being cost-effective versus other medications. Conclusion: Considering that polypill had the most cost-utility, it is suggested that health system policymakers pay special attention to polypill in designing clinical guidelines. Also, through covering this medication by health insurance organizations, it is possible to complete the country's medicine pharmacopeia in preventing CVDs.

SignalP: The Evolution of a Web Server.

SignalP ( https://services.healthtech.dtu.dk/services/SignalP-6.0/ ) is a very popular prediction method for signal peptides, the intrinsic signals that make proteins secretory. The SignalP web server has existed since 1995 and is now in its sixth major version. In this historical account, we (three authors who have taken part in the entire journey plus the first author of the latest version) describe the differences between the versions and discuss the various decisions taken along the way.

Inference of Locus-Specific Population Mixtures From Linked Genome-Wide Allele Frequencies.

Admixture between populations and species is common in nature. Since the influx of new genetic material might be either facilitated or hindered by selection, variation in mixture proportions along the genome is expected in organisms undergoing recombination. Various graph-based models have been developed to better understand these evolutionary dynamics of population splits and mixtures. However, current models assume a single mixture rate for the entire genome and do not explicitly account for linkage. Here, we introduce TreeSwirl, a novel method for inferring branch lengths and locus-specific mixture proportions by using genome-wide allele frequency data, assuming that the admixture graph is known or has been inferred. TreeSwirl builds upon TreeMix that uses Gaussian processes to estimate the presence of gene flow between diverged populations. However, in contrast to TreeMix, our model infers locus-specific mixture proportions employing a Hidden Markov Model that accounts for linkage. Through simulated data, we demonstrate that TreeSwirl can accurately estimate locus-specific mixture proportions and handle complex demographic scenarios. It also outperforms related D- and f-statistics in terms of accuracy and sensitivity to detect introgressed loci.

Abbott realtime MTB assay for detecting Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex in respiratory specimens: a cost-benefit analysis.

PURPOSE: Molecular screening for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) can lead to rapid empirical treatment inception and reduce hospitalization time and complementary diagnostic tests. However, in low-prevalence settings, the cost-benefit balance remains controversial due to the high cost. METHODS: We used a Markov model to perform an economic analysis to evaluate the profit after implementing molecular MTB screening (Period B) compared with conventional culture testing (Period A) in respiratory samples from 7,452 consecutive subjects with presumed tuberculosis (TB). RESULTS: The proportion of positivity was comparable between both periods (P > 0.05), with a total of 2.16 and 1.78 samples/patient requested in periods A and B, respectively (P < 0.001). The mean length of hospital stay was 8.66 days (95%CI: 7.63-9.70) in Period B and 11.51 days (95%CI: 10.15-12.87) in Period A (P = 0.001). The healthcare costs associated with diagnosing patients with presumed TB were reduced by €717.95 per patient with PCR screening. The probability of remaining hospitalized and the need for a greater number of outpatient specialty care visits were the variables with the most weight in the model. CONCLUSION: Employing PCR as an MTB screening method in a low-prevalence setting may increase the profits to the system.

Cost-effectiveness of dostarlimab plus chemotherapy for primary advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer.

Objective: In the double-blind, phase III, placebo-controlled RUBY randomized clinical trial, dostarlimab plus carboplatin-paclitaxel significantly increased survival among patients with primary advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer (EC). We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of dostarlimab in combination with chemotherapy in these patients stratified by mismatch repair-deficient (dMMR) and mismatch repair-proficient (pMMR) subgroups from the perspective of a United States payer. Materials and methods: A Markov model with three states was employed to simulate patients who were administered either dostarlimab in combination with chemotherapy or chemotherapy based on the RUBY trial. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated with a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $150,000 per QALY. Both univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were carried out to explore the robustness of the model. Results: In dMMR EC, the combination of dostarlimab and chemotherapy achieved an additional 5.48 QALYs at an incremental cost of $330,747 compared to chemotherapy alone, resulting in an ICER of $60,349.30 per QALY. In pMMR EC, there were 1.51 additional QALYs gained at an extra cost of $265,148, yielding an ICER of $175,788.47 per QALY. With a 15.2% discount on dostarlimab, the ICER decreased to $150,000 per QALY in the pMMR EC. The univariate sensitivity analysis revealed that the cost of dostarlimab, utility of progression-free survival (PFS), and progressive disease (PD) had the most significant impacts on the outcomes. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that dostarlimab had a 100% likelihood of being considered cost-effective for patients at a WTP threshold of $150,000 per QALY for dMMR EC, whereas this likelihood was only 0.5% for pMMR EC. Conclusion: Dostarlimab in combination with chemotherapy was cost-effective for primary advanced or recurrent dMMR EC from the perspective of a United States payer at a WTP threshold of $150,000 per QALY, but not for pMMR EC. Lowering the prices of dostarlimab could potentially enhance the cost-effectiveness of treatment for pMMR EC.

Place Recognition through Multiple LiDAR Scans Based on the Hidden Markov Model.

Autonomous driving systems for unmanned ground vehicles (UGV) operating in enclosed environments strongly rely on LiDAR localization with a prior map. Precise initial pose estimation is critical during system startup or when tracking is lost, ensuring safe UGV operation. Existing LiDAR-based place recognition methods often suffer from reduced accuracy due to only matching descriptors from individual LiDAR keyframes. This paper proposes a multi-frame descriptor-matching approach based on the hidden Markov model (HMM) to address this issue. This method enhances the place recognition accuracy and robustness by leveraging information from multiple frames. Experimental results from the KITTI dataset demonstrate that the proposed method significantly enhances the place recognition performance compared with the scan context-based single-frame descriptor-matching approach, with an average performance improvement of 5.8% and with a maximum improvement of 15.3%.

Early Surgery for Partial Tears of the Ulnar Collateral Ligament May Be More Cost-Effective and Result in Longer Playing Careers Than Nonoperative Management for High-Level Baseball Pitchers: A Decision-Analytic Markov Model-Based Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Nonoperative management versus early reconstruction for partial tears of the medial ulnar collateral ligament (MUCL) remains controversial, with the most common treatment options for partial tears consisting of rest, rehabilitation, platelet-rich plasma (PRP), and/or surgical intervention. However, whether the improved outcomes reported for treatments such as MUCL reconstruction (UCLR) or nonoperative management with a series of PRP injections justifies their increased upfront costs remains unknown. PURPOSE: To compare the cost-effectiveness of an initial trial of physical therapy alone, an initial trial of physical therapy plus a series of PRP injections, and early UCLR to determine the preferred cost-effective treatment strategy for young, high-level baseball pitchers with partial tears of the MUCL and with aspirations to continue play at the next level (ie, collegiate and/or professional). STUDY DESIGN: Economic and decision analysis; Level of evidence, 2. METHODS: A Markov chain Monte Carlo probabilistic model was developed to evaluate the outcomes and costs of 1000 young, high-level, simulated pitchers undergoing nonoperative management with and without PRP versus early UCLR for partial MUCL tears. Utility values, return to play rates, and transition probabilities were derived from the published literature. Costs were determined based on the typical patient undergoing each treatment strategy at the authors' institution. Outcome measures included costs, acquired playing years (PYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). RESULTS: The mean total costs resulting from nonoperative management without PRP, nonoperative management with PRP, and early UCLR were $22,520, $24,800, and $43,992, respectively. On average, early UCLR produced an additional 4.0 PYs over the 10-year time horizon relative to nonoperative management, resulting in an ICER of $5395/PY, which falls well below the $50,000 willingness-to-pay threshold. Overall, early UCLR was determined to be the preferred cost-effective strategy in 77.5% of pitchers included in the microsimulation model, with nonoperative management with PRP determined to be the preferred strategy in 15% of pitchers and nonoperative management alone in 7.5% of pitchers. CONCLUSION: Despite increased upfront costs, UCLR is a more cost-effective treatment option for partial tears of the MUCL than an initial trial of nonoperative management for most high-level baseball pitchers.

[Ecological environment quality of the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin under different development scenarios]. / ä¸åŒå‘å±•æƒ æ™¯ä¸‹é»„æ²³æµåŸŸå±±è¥¿æ®µç”Ÿæ€çŽ¯å¢ƒè´¨é‡.

Shanxi Province holds an important strategic position in the overall ecological pattern of the Yellow River Basin. To investigate the changes of the ecological environment in the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020, we selected MODIS remote sensing image data to determine the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) based on the principal component analysis of greenness, humidity, dryness, and heat. Then, we analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of ecological quality in this region to explore the influencing factors. We further used the CA-Markov model to simulate and predict the ecological environment under different development scenarios in the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin in 2030. The results showed that RSEI had good applicability in the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin which could be used to monitor and evaluate the spatiotemporal variations in its ecological environment. From 2000 to 2020, the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin was dominated by low quality habitat areas, in which the ecological environment quality continued to improve from 2000 to 2010 and decreased from 2010 to 2020. The high quality habitat areas mainly located on the mountainous areas with superior natural conditions and rich biodiversity, while the low ecological quality areas were mainly in the Taiyuan Basin and the northern part of the study area, where the mining industry developed well. Climate factors were negatively correlated with ecological environment quality in the northern and central parts of the study area, and positively correlated with that in the mountainous area. Under all three development scenarios, the area of cultivated land, forest, water and construction land increased in 2030 compared to that in 2020. Compared to the natural development scenario and the cultivated land protection scenario, the ecological constraint scenario with RSEI as the limiting factor had the highest area of new forest and the lowest expansion rate of cultivated land and construction land. The results would provide a reference for land space planning and ecological environment protection in the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin.

Cost-effectiveness of talazoparib for patients with germline BRCA1/2 mutated HER2-negative advanced breast cancer in China and the US.

Breast cancer is one of the tumors with the highest prevalence rate among women in the world, and its BRCA1/2 gene is a common mutation site. Talazoparib, as a targeted PARP inhibitor, can effectively control the occurrence and development of breast cancer with BRCA1/2 gene mutation, and play a therapeutic role. Based on the findings from the Phase III EMBRACE trial (NCT01945775 clinical trial), our analysis reveals that the talazoparib group demonstrated a significant extension in progression-free survival, along with improved response markers and patient-reported outcomes when compared to conventional therapies. This study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of talazoparib for treating advanced breast cancer with germline BRCA1/2 mutations and HER2 negativity, considering the perspectives of health services in China and the United States. The results obtained will serve as a valuable reference for promoting rational drug utilization and enhancing medical resource efficiency. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Talazoparib more scientifically and provide clinicians with chemotherapy options, this paper developed a Markov model based on the EMBRACA clinical trial (clinical Trails.gov No., NCT01945775) to simulate the survival events of breast cancer patients in the Talazoparib group and the standard treatment group. The state transition probability and clinical data of breast cancer patients during treatment were extracted from the phase III EMBRACA clinical trial. The cost data generated during the treatment process comes from local hospital pricing, other references, and expert consultation. This article uses US dollars to calculate the treatment cost and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Health outcomes are expressed in Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). In addition, Outcomes were measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, which robustness was evaluated by deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. This article establishes a Markov model for single-item sensitivity analysis. The results show that the economic benefits of using Talazoparib as a new treatment strategy in both China and the United States are higher than other drugs, and it is cost-effective. Compared to the control group, the incremental cost incurred by the Talazoparib treatment group in China was $2484.48/QALY, with an incremental QALY of 1.5. However, Talazoparib in the United States holds a dominant position, saving costs of $10,223.43 and increasing QALYs by 1.5. The clinical treatment effect of Talazoparib group in BRCA1/2 mutant advanced breast cancer patients is better than that of the standard treatment group, and the progression free survival period is significantly prolonged. From the perspective of medical and health services in China and the United States, the Talazoparib group is more economical than the standard treatment group in treating patients with BRCA1/2 mutant advanced breast cancer.

The Health Impact of Waiting for Elective Procedures in the NHS in England: A Modeling Framework Applied to Coronary Artery Bypass Graft and Total Hip Replacement.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study is to demonstrate a practical framework that can be applied to estimate the health impact of changes in waiting times across a range of elective procedures in the National Health Service (NHS) in England. We apply this framework by modeling 2 procedures: coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) and total hip replacement (THR). METHODS: We built a Markov model capturing health pre- and postprocedure, including the possibility of exiting preprocedure to acute NHS care or self-funded private care. We estimate the change in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over a lifetime horizon for 10 subgroups defined by sex and Index of Multiple Deprivation quintile groups and for 7 alternative scenarios. We include 18 wk as a baseline waiting time consistent with current NHS policy. The model was populated with data from routinely collected data sets where possible (Hospital Episode Statistics, Patient-Reported Outcome Measures, and Office for National Statistics Mortality records), supplemented by the academic literature. RESULTS: Compared with 18 wk, increasing the wait time to 36 wk resulted in a mean discounted QALY loss in the range of 0.034 to 0.043 for CABG and 0.193 to 0.291 for THR. The QALY impact of longer NHS waits was greater for those living in more deprived areas, partly as fewer patients switch to private care. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: The proposed framework was applied to 2 different procedures and patient populations. If applied to an expanded group of procedures, it could provide decision makers with information to inform prioritization of waiting lists. There are a number of limitations in routine data on waiting for elective procedures, primarily the lack of information on people still waiting. HIGHLIGHTS: We present a modeling framework that allows for an estimation of the health impact (measured in quality-adjusted life-years) of waiting for elective procedures in the NHS in England.We apply our model to waiting for coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) and total hip replacement (THR). Increasing the wait for THR results in a larger health loss than an equivalent increase in wait for CABG.This model could potentially be used to estimate the impact across an expanded group of procedures to inform prioritization of activities to reduce waiting times.

[Comparison of initiation of antihypertensive therapy strategies for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases in Chinese population: A decision-analytic Markov modelling study].

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the health benefits and intervention efficiency of different strategies of initiating antihypertensive therapy for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases in a community-based Chinese population from the Chinese electronic health records research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study. METHODS: A decision-analytic Markov model was used to simulate and compare different antihypertensive initiation strategies, including: Strategy 1, initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≥140 mmHg (2020 Chinese guideline on the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases); Strategy 2, initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with SBP ≥130 mmHg; Strategy 3, initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with SBP≥140 mmHg, or with SBP between 130 and 140 mmHg and at high risk of cardiovascular diseases (2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline for the prevention, detection, evaluation, and management of high blood pressure in adults); Strategy 4, initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with SBP≥160 mmHg, or with SBP between 140 and 160 mmHg and at high risk of cardiovascular diseases (2019 United Kingdom National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guideline for the hypertension in adults: Diagnosis and management). The high 10-year cardiovascular risk was defined as the predicted risk over 10% based on the 2019 World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts. Different strategies were simulated by the Markov model for ten years (cycles), with parameters mainly from the CHERRY study or published literature. After ten cycles of simulation, the numbers of quality-adjusted life years (QALY), cardiovascular events and all-cause deaths were calculated to evaluate the health benefits of each strategy, and the numbers needed to treat (NNT) for each cardiovascular event or all-cause death could be prevented were calculated to assess the intervention efficiency. One-way sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of incidence rates of cardiovascular disease and probabilistic sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of hazard ratios of interventions were conducted. RESULTS: A total of 213 987 Chinese adults aged 35-79 years without cardiovascular diseases were included. Compared with strategy 1, the number of cardiovascular events that could be prevented in strategy 2 increased by 666 (95% UI: 334-975), while the NNT per cardiovascular event prevented increased by 10 (95% UI: 7-20). In contrast to strategy 1, the number of cardiovascular events that could be prevented in strategy 3 increased by 388 (95% UI: 194-569), and the NNT per cardiovascular event prevented decreased by 6 (95% UI: 4-12), suggesting that strategy 3 had better health benefits and intervention efficiency. Compared to strategy 1, although the number of cardiovascular events that could be prevented decreased by 193 (95% UI: 98-281) in strategy 4, the NNT per cardiovascular event prevented decreased by 18 (95% UI: 13-37) with better efficiency. The results were consistent in the sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: When initiating antihypertensive therapy in an economically developed area of China, the strategy combined with cardiovascular risk assessment is more efficient than those purely based on the SBP threshold. The cardiovascular risk assessment strategy with different SBP thresholds is suggested to balance health benefits and intervention efficiency in diverse populations.

Predicting nodal metastasis progression of oral tongue cancer using a hidden Markov model in MRI.

Objectives: The presence of occult nodal metastases in patients with oral tongue squamous cell carcinomas (OTSCCs) has implications for treatment. More than 30% of patients will have occult nodal metastases, yet a considerable number of patients undergo unnecessary invasive neck dissection to confirm nodal status. In this work, we propose a probabilistic model for lymphatic metastatic spread that can quantify the risk of microscopic involvement at the lymph node level (LNL) given the location of macroscopic metastases and the tumor stage using the MRI method. Materials and methods: A total of 108 patients of OTSCCs were included in the study. A hidden Markov model (HMM) was used to compute the probabilities of transitions between states over time based on MRI. Learning of the transition probabilities was performed via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling and was based on a dataset of OTSCC patients for whom involvement of individual LNLs was reported. Results: Our model found that the most common involvement was that of level I and level II, corresponding to a high probability of 𝑝b1 = 0.39 ± 0.05, 𝑝b2 = 0.53 ± 0.09; lymph node level I had metastasis, and the probability of metastasis in lymph node II was high (93.79%); lymph node level II had metastasis, and the probability of metastasis in lymph node III was small (7.88%). Lymph nodes progress faster in the early stage and slower in the late stage. Conclusion: An HMM can produce an algorithm that is able to predict nodal metastasis evolution in patients with OTSCCs by analyzing the macroscopic metastases observed in the upstream levels, and tumor category.

Abnormal dynamic functional connectivity and topological properties of cerebellar network in male obstructive sleep apnea.

PURPOSE: To investigate dynamic functional connectivity (dFC) within the cerebellar-whole brain network and dynamic topological properties of the cerebellar network in obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) patients. METHODS: Sixty male patients and 60 male healthy controls were included. The sliding window method examined the fluctuations in cerebellum-whole brain dFC and connection strength in OSA. Furthermore, graph theory metrics evaluated the dynamic topological properties of the cerebellar network. Additionally, hidden Markov modeling validated the robustness of the dFC. The correlations between the abovementioned measures and clinical assessments were assessed. RESULTS: Two dynamic network states were characterized. State 2 exhibited a heightened frequency, longer fractional occupancy, and greater mean dwell time in OSA. The cerebellar networks and cerebrocerebellar dFC alterations were mainly located in the default mode network, frontoparietal network, somatomotor network, right cerebellar CrusI/II, and other networks. Global properties indicated aberrant cerebellar topology in OSA. Dynamic properties were correlated with clinical indicators primarily on emotion, cognition, and sleep. CONCLUSION: Abnormal dFC in male OSA may indicate an imbalance between the integration and segregation of brain networks, concurrent with global topological alterations. Abnormal default mode network interactions with high-order and low-level cognitive networks, disrupting their coordination, may impair the regulation of cognitive, emotional, and sleep functions in OSA.

Decision tree-Markov model of perinatal depression screening: a cost-utility analysis.

Background: Perinatal depression affects the physical and mental health of pregnant women. It also has a negative effect on children, families, and society, and the incidence is high. We constructed a cost-utility analysis model for perinatal depression screening in China and evaluated the model from the perspective of health economics. Methods: We constructed a Markov model that was consistent with the screening strategy for perinatal depression in China, and two screening strategies (screening and non-screening) were constructed. Each strategy was set as a cycle of 3 months, corresponding to the first trimester, second trimester, third trimester, and postpartum. The state outcome parameters required for the model were obtained based on data from the National Prospective Cohort Study on the Mental Health of Chinese Pregnant Women from August 2015 to October 2016. The cost parameters were obtained from a field investigation on costs and screening effects conducted in maternal and child health care institutions in 2020. The cost-utility ratio and incremental cost-utility ratio of different screening strategies were obtained by multiplicative analysis to evaluate the health economic value of the two screening strategies. Finally, deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted on the uncertain parameters in the model to explore the sensitivity factors that affected the selection of screening strategies. Results: The cost-utility analysis showed that the per capita cost of the screening strategy was 129.54 yuan, 0.85 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) could be obtained, and the average cost per QALY gained was 152.17 yuan. In the non-screening (routine health care) group, the average cost was 171.80 CNY per person, 0.84 QALYs could be obtained, and the average cost per QALY gained was 205.05 CNY. Using one gross domestic product per capita in 2021 as the willingness to pay threshold, the incremental cost-utility ratio of screening versus no screening (routine health care) was about -3,126.77 yuan, which was lower than one gross domestic product per capita. Therefore, the screening strategy was more cost-effective than no screening (routine health care). Sensitivity analysis was performed by adjusting the parameters in the model, and the results were stable and consistent, which did not affect the choice of the optimal strategy. Conclusion: Compared with no screening (routine health care), the recommended perinatal depression screening strategy in China is cost-effective. In the future, it is necessary to continue to standardize screening and explore different screening modalities and tools suitable for specific regions.

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Colorectal Cancer Screening Strategies Using Active Learning and Monte Carlo Simulation.

INTRODUCTION: Detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the early stages through available screening tests increases the patient's survival chances. Multimodal screening policies can benefit patients by providing more diverse screening options and balancing the risks and benefits of screening tests. We investigate the cost-effectiveness of a wide variety of multimodal CRC screening policies. METHODS: We developed a Monte Carlo simulation framework to model CRC dynamics. We proposed an innovative calibration process using machine learning models to estimate age- and size-specific adenomatous polyps' progression and regression rates. The proposed approach significantly expedites the model parameter space search. RESULTS: Two multimodal proposed policies (i.e., 1] colonoscopy at 50 y and fecal occult blood test annually between 60 and 75 y and 2] colonoscopy at 50 and 60 y and fecal immunochemical test annually between 70 and 75 y) are identified as efficient frontier policies. Both policies are cost-effective at a willingness to pay of $50,000. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the sensitivity of results to a change in screening test costs as well as adherence behavior. The sensitivity analysis results suggest that the proposed policies are mostly robust to the considered changes in screening test costs, as there is a significant overlap between the efficient frontier policies of the baseline and the sensitivity analysis cases. However, the efficient frontier policies were more sensitive to changes in adherence behavior. CONCLUSION: Generally, combining stool-based tests with visual tests will benefit patients with higher life expectancy and a lower expected cost compared with unimodal screening policies. Colonoscopy at younger ages (when the colonoscopy complication risk is lower) and stool-based tests at older ages are shown to be more effective. HIGHLIGHTS: We propose a detailed Markov model to capture the colorectal cancer (CRC) dynamics. The proposed Markov model presents the detailed dynamics of adenomas progression to CRC.We use more than 44,000 colonoscopy reports and available data in the literature to calibrate the proposed Markov model using an innovative approach that leverages machine learning models to expedite the calibration process.We investigate the cost-effectiveness of a wide variety of multimodal CRC screening policies and compare their performances with the current in-practice policies.