Vegetation cover, topography, and low-traffic roads influence Sonoran desert tortoise (Gopherus morafkai) movement and habitat selection.

BACKGROUND: Anthropogenic activities occurring throughout the Sonoran Desert are replacing and fragmenting habitat and reducing landscape connectivity for the Sonoran desert tortoise (Gopherus morafkai). Understanding how the structure of the landscape influences tortoise habitat use and movement can help develop strategies for mitigating the impacts of these landscape alterations, which are conservation actions needed to support the species' long-term persistence. However, how natural and anthropogenic features influence fine-scale habitat use and movement of Sonoran desert tortoises remains unclear. METHODS: The goals of this study were to (1) understand how characteristics of the landscape shape tortoise habitat use and movement in order to (2) identify factors that may reduce habitat use or threaten landscape connectivity for the species by discouraging or restricting movement. We collected GPS telemetry data from 17 adult tortoises tracked for two summer monsoon seasons, when tortoises are most active, in a U.S. National Monument along the international border between Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. We used Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to assign GPS locations to an encamped or a moving state. We used the moving state data in integrated Step Selection Analyses (iSSA) to examine how range-resident Sonoran desert tortoises select habitat and respond to landscape features while moving. RESULTS: Tortoises selected to move through areas of intermediate vegetation cover and terrain ruggedness and avoided areas far from desert washes and close to low-traffic roads. Tortoises increased their speed when approaching or crossing low-traffic roads but showed no detectable response to a highway. CONCLUSION: Bare earth or high vegetation cover, flat or extremely rugged terrain, areas far from desert washes, and low-traffic roads may discourage or restrict tortoise movement. Therefore, preventing the development of roads, activities that degrade washes, and activities that thin, remove, or greatly increase vegetation cover may encourage tortoise habitat use and movement within those habitats.

A computational approach to selective attention in embodied approaches to cognitive archaeology.

This article proposes a novel computational approach to embodied approaches in cognitive archaeology called computational cognitive archaeology (CCA). We argue that cognitive archaeology, understood as the study of the human mind based on archaeological findings such as artefacts and material remains excavated and interpreted in the present, can benefit from the integration of novel methods in computational neuroscience interested in modelling the way the brain, the body and the environment are coupled and parameterized to allow for adaptive behaviour. We discuss the kind of tasks that CCA may engage in with a narrative example of how one can model the cumulative cultural evolution of the material and cognitive components of technologies, focusing on the case of knapping technology. This article thus provides a novel theoretical framework to formalize research in cognitive archaeology using recent developments in computational neuroscience.

Top-down attention shifts behavioral and neural event boundaries in narratives with overlapping event scripts.

Understanding and remembering the complex experiences of everyday life relies critically on prior schematic knowledge about how events in our world unfold over time. How does the brain construct event representations from a library of schematic scripts, and how does activating a specific script impact the way that events are segmented in time? We developed a novel set of 16 audio narratives, each of which combines one of four location-relevant event scripts (restaurant, airport, grocery store, and lecture hall) with one of four socially relevant event scripts (breakup, proposal, business deal, and meet cute), and presented them to participants in an fMRI study and a separate online study. Responses in the angular gyrus, parahippocampal gyrus, and subregions of the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) were driven by scripts related to both location and social information, showing that these regions can track schematic sequences from multiple domains. For some stories, participants were primed to attend to one of the two scripts by training them to listen for and remember specific script-relevant episodic details. Activating a location-related event script shifted the timing of subjective event boundaries to align with script-relevant changes in the narratives, and this behavioral shift was mirrored in the timing of neural responses, with mPFC event boundaries (identified using a hidden Markov model) aligning to location-relevant rather than socially relevant boundaries when participants were location primed. Our findings demonstrate that neural event dynamics are actively modulated by top-down goals and provide new insight into how narrative event representations are constructed through the activation of temporally structured prior knowledge.

Spatiotemporal Eye Movement Dynamics Reveal Altered Face Prioritization in Early Visual Processing Among Autistic Children.

BACKGROUND: Reduced social attention - looking at faces - is one of the most common manifestations of social difficulty in autism central to social development. Although reduced social attention is well-characterized in autism, qualitative differences in how social attention unfolds across time remains unknown. METHODS: We used a computational modeling (i.e., hidden Markov modeling) approach to assess and compare the spatiotemporal dynamics of social attention in a large, well-characterized sample of autistic (n = 280) and neurotypical (n = 120) children (ages 6-11) that completed three social eye-tracking assays across three longitudinal time points (Baseline, 6 weeks, 24 weeks). RESULTS: Our analysis supported the existence of two common eye movement patterns that emerged across three ET assays. A focused pattern was characterized by small face regions of interest, which had high probability of capturing fixations early in visual processing. In contrast, an exploratory pattern was characterized by larger face regions of interest, with lower initial probability of fixation, and more non-social regions of interest. In the context of social perception, autistic children showed significantly more exploratory eye movement patterns than neurotypical children across all social perception assays and all three longitudinal time points. Eye movement patterns were associated with clinical features of autism, including adaptive function, face recognition, and autism symptom severity. CONCLUSIONS: Decreased likelihood of precisely looking to faces early in social visual processing may be an important feature of autism that was associated with autism-related symptomology and may reflect less visual sensitivity to face information.

Understanding Learning from EEG Data: Combining Machine Learning and Feature Engineering Based on Hidden Markov Models and Mixed Models.

Theta oscillations, ranging from 4-8 Hz, play a significant role in spatial learning and memory functions during navigation tasks. Frontal theta oscillations are thought to play an important role in spatial navigation and memory. Electroencephalography (EEG) datasets are very complex, making any changes in the neural signal related to behaviour difficult to interpret. However, multiple analytical methods are available to examine complex data structures, especially machine learning-based techniques. These methods have shown high classification performance, and their combination with feature engineering enhances their capability. This paper proposes using hidden Markov and linear mixed effects models to extract features from EEG data. Based on the engineered features obtained from frontal theta EEG data during a spatial navigation task in two key trials (first, last) and between two conditions (learner and non-learner), we analysed the performance of six machine learning methods on classifying learner and non-learner participants. We also analysed how different standardisation methods used to pre-process the EEG data contribute to classification performance. We compared the classification performance of each trial with data gathered from the same subjects, including solely coordinate-based features, such as idle time and average speed. We found that more machine learning methods perform better classification using coordinate-based data. However, only deep neural networks achieved an area under the ROC curve higher than 80% using the theta EEG data alone. Our findings suggest that standardising the theta EEG data and using deep neural networks enhances the classification of learner and non-learner subjects in a spatial learning task.

Unveiling Allosteric Regulation and Binding Mechanism of BRD9 through Molecular Dynamics Simulations and Markov Modeling.

Bromodomain-containing protein 9 (BRD9) is a key player in chromatin remodeling and gene expression regulation, and it is closely associated with the development of various diseases, including cancers. Recent studies have indicated that inhibition of BRD9 may have potential value in the treatment of certain cancers. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, Markov modeling and principal component analysis were performed to investigate the binding mechanisms of allosteric inhibitor POJ and orthosteric inhibitor 82I to BRD9 and its allosteric regulation. Our results indicate that binding of these two types of inhibitors induces significant structural changes in the protein, particularly in the formation and dissolution of α-helical regions. Markov flux analysis reveals notable changes occurring in the α-helicity near the ZA loop during the inhibitor binding process. Calculations of binding free energies reveal that the cooperation of orthosteric and allosteric inhibitors affects binding ability of inhibitors to BRD9 and modifies the active sites of orthosteric and allosteric positions. This research is expected to provide new insights into the inhibitory mechanism of 82I and POJ on BRD9 and offers a theoretical foundation for development of cancer treatment strategies targeting BRD9.

Optimal Inference of Hidden Markov Models Through Expert-Acquired Data.

This paper focuses on inferring a general class of hidden Markov models (HMMs) using data acquired from experts. Expert-acquired data contain decisions/actions made by humans/users for various objectives, such as navigation data reflecting drivers' behavior, cybersecurity data carrying defender decisions, and biological data containing the biologist's actions (e.g., interventions and experiments). Conventional inference methods rely on temporal changes in data without accounting for expert knowledge. This paper incorporates expert knowledge into the inference of HMMs by modeling expert behavior as an imperfect reinforcement learning agent. The proposed method optimally quantifies experts' perceptions about the system model, which, alongside the temporal changes in data, contributes to the inference process. The proposed inference method is derived through a combination of dynamic programming and optimal recursive Bayesian estimation. The applicability of this method is demonstrated to a wide range of inference criteria, such as maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori. The performance of the proposed method is investigated through a comprehensive numerical experiment using a benchmark problem and biological networks.

Trajectory Analysis in Single-Particle Tracking: From Mean Squared Displacement to Machine Learning Approaches.

Single-particle tracking is a powerful technique to investigate the motion of molecules or particles. Here, we review the methods for analyzing the reconstructed trajectories, a fundamental step for deciphering the underlying mechanisms driving the motion. First, we review the traditional analysis based on the mean squared displacement (MSD), highlighting the sometimes-neglected factors potentially affecting the accuracy of the results. We then report methods that exploit the distribution of parameters other than displacements, e.g., angles, velocities, and times and probabilities of reaching a target, discussing how they are more sensitive in characterizing heterogeneities and transient behaviors masked in the MSD analysis. Hidden Markov Models are also used for this purpose, and these allow for the identification of different states, their populations and the switching kinetics. Finally, we discuss a rapidly expanding field-trajectory analysis based on machine learning. Various approaches, from random forest to deep learning, are used to classify trajectory motions, which can be identified by motion models or by model-free sets of trajectory features, either previously defined or automatically identified by the algorithms. We also review free software available for some of the analysis methods. We emphasize that approaches based on a combination of the different methods, including classical statistics and machine learning, may be the way to obtain the most informative and accurate results.

Player Activity and Load Profiling with Hidden Markov Models: A Novel Application in Rugby League.

Player movement in rugby league is complex, being spatiotemporal and multifaceted. Modeling this complexity to provide robust measures of player activity and load has proved difficult, with important aspects of player movement yet to be considered. These include the influence of time-varying covariates on player activity and the combination of different dimensions of player movement. Few studies have simultaneously categorized player activity into different activity states and investigated factors influencing the transition between states, or compared player activity and load profiles between matches and training. This study applied hidden Markov models (HMMs)-a data-driven, multivariate approach-to rugby league training and match GPS data to i) demonstrate how HMMs can combine multiple variables in a data-driven way to effectively categorize player movement states, ii) investigate the influence of two time-varying covariates, score difference and elapsed match time on player activity states, and iii) compare player activity and load profiles within and between training and match modalities. HMMs were fitted to player GPS, accelerometer and heart rate data of one English Super League team across 60 training sessions and 35 matches. Distinct activity states were detected for both matches and training, with transitions between states in matches influenced by score difference and elapsed time and clear differences in activity and load profiles between training and matches. HMMs can model the complexity of player movement to effectively profile player activity and load in rugby league and have the potential to facilitate new research across several sports.

We successfully derived player activity and load profiles in both training and match contexts in a data-driven and multivariate way using hidden Markov models.HMMs can be used to investigate the probability of changing between activity states as a function of time-varying covariates, augmenting current activity profiling practice.We discovered key differences between the activity and load profiles between training and matches in rugby league. In particular, a very directed high-speed running state in training that is seldom accessed by players in matches.We demonstrated how visualizing the output of HMMs can provide decision support by facilitating comparisons of activity and load profiles within and between players in matches and training.We posit that the methodology detailed in this paper can become a standardized approach to player activity and load profiling based on player movement data across multiple sports because it is flexible, data-driven, multivariate and statistically robust.

Utilizing profile hidden Markov model databases for discovering viruses from metagenomic data: a comprehensive review.

Profile hidden Markov models (pHMMs) are able to achieve high sensitivity in remote homology search, making them popular choices for detecting novel or highly diverged viruses in metagenomic data. However, many existing pHMM databases have different design focuses, making it difficult for users to decide the proper one to use. In this review, we provide a thorough evaluation and comparison for multiple commonly used profile HMM databases for viral sequence discovery in metagenomic data. We characterized the databases by comparing their sizes, their taxonomic coverage, and the properties of their models using quantitative metrics. Subsequently, we assessed their performance in virus identification across multiple application scenarios, utilizing both simulated and real metagenomic data. We aim to offer researchers a thorough and critical assessment of the strengths and limitations of different databases. Furthermore, based on the experimental results obtained from the simulated and real metagenomic data, we provided practical suggestions for users to optimize their use of pHMM databases, thus enhancing the quality and reliability of their findings in the field of viral metagenomics.

Movement behavior in a dominant ungulate underlies successful adjustment to a rapidly changing landscape following megafire.

BACKGROUND: Movement plays a key role in allowing animal species to adapt to sudden environmental shifts. Anthropogenic climate and land use change have accelerated the frequency of some of these extreme disturbances, including megafire. These megafires dramatically alter ecosystems and challenge the capacity of several species to adjust to a rapidly changing landscape. Ungulates and their movement behaviors play a central role in the ecosystem functions of fire-prone ecosystems around the world. Previous work has shown behavioral plasticity is an important mechanism underlying whether large ungulates are able to adjust to recent changes in their environments effectively. Ungulates may respond to the immediate effects of megafire by adjusting their movement and behavior, but how these responses persist or change over time following disturbance is poorly understood. METHODS: We examined how an ecologically dominant ungulate with strong site fidelity, Columbian black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus columbianus), adjusted its movement and behavior in response to an altered landscape following a megafire. To do so, we collected GPS data from 21 individual female deer over the course of a year to compare changes in home range size over time and used resource selection functions (RSFs) and hidden Markov movement models (HMMs) to assess changes in behavior and habitat selection. RESULTS: We found compelling evidence of adaptive capacity across individual deer in response to megafire. Deer avoided exposed and severely burned areas that lack forage and could be riskier for predation immediately following megafire, but they later altered these behaviors to select areas that burned at higher severities, potentially to take advantage of enhanced forage. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that despite their high site fidelity, deer can navigate altered landscapes to track rapid shifts in encounter risk with predators and resource availability. This successful adjustment of movement and behavior following extreme disturbance could help facilitate resilience at broader ecological scales.

Unveiling potential PET degrading eukaryotes through in silico bioprospecting of PETases.

This study addresses the environmental problem of PET plastic through in silico bioprospecting for the identification and experimental validation of novel PET degrading eukaryotes through the in silico bioprospectingI of PETases, employing a methodology that combines Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), clustering techniques, molecular docking, and dynamic simulations. A total of 424 putative PETase sequences were identified from 219 eukaryotic organisms, highlighting six sequences with low affinity energies. The Aspergillus luchuensis sequence showed the lowest Gibbs free energy and exhibited stability at different temperatures in molecular dynamics assays. Experimental validation, through a plate clearance assay and HPLC, confirmed PETase activity in three wild-type fungal strains, with A. luchuensis showing the highest efficiency. The results obtained demonstrate the effectiveness of combining computational and experimental approaches as proof of concept to discover and validate eukaryotes with PET-degrading capabilities opening new perspectives for the sustainable management of this type of waste and contributing to its environmental mitigation.

Tracking and modeling the movement of Queensland fruit flies, Bactrocera tryoni, using harmonic radar in papaya fields.

Determining movement parameters for pest insects such as tephritid fruit flies is critical to developing models which can be used to increase the effectiveness of surveillance and control strategies. In this study, harmonic radar was used to track wild-caught male Queensland fruit flies (Qflies), Bactrocera tryoni, in papaya fields. Experiment 1 continuously tracked single flies which were prodded to induce movement. Qfly movements from this experiment showed greater mean squared displacement than predicted by both a simple random walk (RW) or a correlated random walk (CRW) model, suggesting that movement parameters derived from the entire data set do not adequately describe the movement of individual Qfly at all spatial scales or for all behavioral states. This conclusion is supported by both fractal and hidden Markov model (HMM) analysis. Lower fractal dimensions (straighter movement paths) were observed at larger spatial scales (> 2.5 m) suggesting that Qflies have qualitatively distinct movement at different scales. Further, a two-state HMM fit the observed movement data better than the CRW or RW models. Experiment 2 identified individual landing locations, twice a day, for groups of released Qflies, demonstrating that flies could be tracked over longer periods of time.

Creating Computational Models of Ion Channel Dynamics.

Markov models are widely used to represent ion channel protein configurations as different states in the model's topology. Such models allow for dynamic simulation of ion channel kinetics through the simulated application of voltage potentials across a cell membrane. In this chapter, we present a general method for creating Markov models of ion channel kinetics using computational optimization alongside a fully featured example model of a cardiac potassium channel. Our methods cover designing training protocols, iteratively testing potential model topologies for structure identification, creation of algorithms for model simulation, as well as methods for assessing the quality of fit for a finalized model.

A Metric Based on the Efficient Determination Criterion.

This paper extends the concept of metrics based on the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), to achieve strongly consistent estimation of partition Markov models (PMMs). We introduce a set of metrics drawn from the family of model selection criteria known as efficient determination criteria (EDC). This generalization extends the range of options available in BIC for penalizing the number of model parameters. We formally specify the relationship that determines how EDC works when selecting a model based on a threshold associated with the metric. Furthermore, we improve the penalty options within EDC, identifying the penalty ln(ln(n)) as a viable choice that maintains the strongly consistent estimation of a PMM. To demonstrate the utility of these new metrics, we apply them to the modeling of three DNA sequences of dengue virus type 3, endemic in Brazil in 2023.

Dimensions of Level-1 Group-Based Phylogenetic Networks.

Phylogenetic networks represent evolutionary histories of sets of taxa where horizontal evolution or hybridization has occurred. Placing a Markov model of evolution on a phylogenetic network gives a model that is particularly amenable to algebraic study by representing it as an algebraic variety. In this paper, we give a formula for the dimension of the variety corresponding to a triangle-free level-1 phylogenetic network under a group-based evolutionary model. On our way to this, we give a dimension formula for codimension zero toric fiber products. We conclude by illustrating applications to identifiability.

Estimating causal effects from panel data with dynamic multivariate panel models.

Panel data are ubiquitous in scientific fields such as social sciences. Various modeling approaches have been presented for observational causal inference based on such data. Existing approaches typically impose restrictive assumptions on the data-generating process such as Gaussian responses or time-invariant effects, or they can only consider short-term causal effects. To surmount these restrictions, we present the dynamic multivariate panel model (DMPM) that supports time-varying, time-invariant, and individual-specific effects, multiple responses across a wide variety of distributions, and arbitrary dependency structures of lagged responses of any order. We formally demonstrate how DMPM facilitates causal inference within the structural causal modeling framework and we take a Bayesian approach for the estimation of the posterior distributions of the model parameters and causal effects of interest. We demonstrate the use of DMPM by applying the approach to both real and synthetic data.

Healthcare utilisation by diabetic patients in Denmark: the role of primary care in reducing emergency visits.

Improving the management of diabetic patients is receiving increasing attention in the health policy agenda due to increasing prevalence in the population and raising pressure on healthcare resources. This paper examines the determinants of healthcare services utilisation in patients with type-2 diabetes, investigating the potential substitution effect of general practice visits on the utilisation of emergency department visits. By using rich longitudinal data from Denmark and a bivariate econometric model, our analysis highlights primary care services that are more effective in preventing emergency department visits and socioeconomic groups of patients with a weak substitution response. Our results suggest that empowering primary care services, such as preventive assessment visits, may contribute to reducing emergency department visits significantly. Moreover, special attention should be devoted to vulnerable groups, such as patients from low socioeconomic background and older patients, who may find more difficult achieving a large substitution response.

Deep Reinforcement Learning Sensor Scheduling for Effective Monitoring of Dynamical Systems.

Advances in technology have enabled the use of sensors with varied modalities to monitor different parts of systems, each providing diverse levels of information about the underlying system. However, resource limitations and computational power restrict the number of sensors/data that can be processed in real-time in most complex systems. These challenges necessitate the need for selecting/scheduling a subset of sensors to obtain measurements that guarantee the best monitoring objectives. This paper focuses on sensor scheduling for systems modeled by hidden Markov models. Despite the development of several sensor selection and scheduling methods, existing methods tend to be greedy and do not take into account the long-term impact of selected sensors on monitoring objectives. This paper formulates optimal sensor scheduling as a reinforcement learning problem defined over the posterior distribution of system states. Further, the paper derives a deep reinforcement learning policy for offline learning of the sensor scheduling policy, which can then be executed in real-time as new information unfolds. The proposed method applies to any monitoring objective that can be expressed in terms of the posterior distribution of the states (e.g., state estimation, information gain, etc.). The performance of the proposed method in terms of accuracy and robustness is investigated for monitoring the security of networked systems and the health monitoring of gene regulatory networks.

Linking fast and slow: The case for generative models.

A pervasive challenge in neuroscience is testing whether neuronal connectivity changes over time due to specific causes, such as stimuli, events, or clinical interventions. Recent hardware innovations and falling data storage costs enable longer, more naturalistic neuronal recordings. The implicit opportunity for understanding the self-organised brain calls for new analysis methods that link temporal scales: from the order of milliseconds over which neuronal dynamics evolve, to the order of minutes, days, or even years over which experimental observations unfold. This review article demonstrates how hierarchical generative models and Bayesian inference help to characterise neuronal activity across different time scales. Crucially, these methods go beyond describing statistical associations among observations and enable inference about underlying mechanisms. We offer an overview of fundamental concepts in state-space modeling and suggest a taxonomy for these methods. Additionally, we introduce key mathematical principles that underscore a separation of temporal scales, such as the slaving principle, and review Bayesian methods that are being used to test hypotheses about the brain with multiscale data. We hope that this review will serve as a useful primer for experimental and computational neuroscientists on the state of the art and current directions of travel in the complex systems modelling literature.