A Modeling Study on the Effect of Interstate Mobility Restrictions on the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic.

Mobility is a crucial element in comprehending the possible expansion of the transmission chain in an epidemic. In the initial phases, strategies for containing cases can be directly linked to population mobility restrictions, especially when only non-pharmaceutical measures are available. During the pandemic of COVID-19 in Brazil, mobility limitation measures were strongly opposed by a large portion of the population. Hypothetically, if the population had supported such measures, the sharp rise in the number of cases could have been suppressed. In this context, computational modeling offers systematic methods for analyzing scenarios about the development of the epidemiological situation taking into account specific conditions. In this study, we examine the impacts of interstate mobility in Brazil. To do so, we develop a metapopulational model that considers both intra and intercompartmental dynamics, utilizing graph theory. We use a parameter estimation technique that allows us to infer the effective reproduction number in each state and estimate the time-varying transmission rate. This makes it possible to investigate scenarios related to mobility and quantify the effect of people moving between states and how certain measures to limit movement might reduce the impact of the pandemic. Our results demonstrate a clear association between the number of cases and mobility, which is heightened when states are closer to each other. This serves as a proof of concept and shows how reducing mobility in more heavily trafficked areas can be more effective.

The challenging biogeography of the Juan Fernández Islands and Coast Range of central Chile explained by new models of East Pacific tectonics.

Biogeographers have often been puzzled by several unusual features in the Juan Fernández Islands (JFI) biota. These include the very high endemism density, multiple endemics that are older than the current islands, close biogeographic affinities with the central and West Pacific, and affinities with the diverse Coast Range of central Chile. We review aspects of biogeography in the JFI and the Coast Range in light of recent geological studies. These have examined the mantle below the East Pacific and South America, and have produced radical, new ideas on tectonic history. A long-lived, intraoceanic archipelago ~9000 km long is now thought to have existed in the East Pacific (passing between the JFI hotspot and mainland Chile) until the mid-Cretaceous. At this time, South America, which was moving westward with the opening of the Atlantic, collided with the archipelago. The assumption that the JFI biota is no older than its current islands is questionable, as taxa would have survived on prior islands produced at the JFI hotspot. We propose a new interpretation of evolution in the region based on tectonics rather than on island age and incorporating the following factors: the newly described East Pacific Archipelago; a long history for the JFI hotspot; metapopulation dynamics, including metapopulation vicariance; and formation of the Humboldt Current in the Cretaceous. The model accounts for many distinctive features of the JFI and Coast Range biota.

Golden lion tamarin metapopulation dynamics five years after heavy losses to yellow fever.

The golden lion tamarin (GLT) is an Endangered primate endemic to Brazil's lowland Atlantic Forest. After centuries of deforestation and capture for the pet trade, only a few hundred individuals survived, all in isolated forest fragments 85 km from Rio de Janeiro city. Intensive conservation actions, including reintroduction of zoo-born tamarins, increased numbers to about 3700 in 2014. The most severe yellow fever epidemic/epizootic in Brazil in 80 years reduced two of the largest GLT populations by over 90%. Herein we report the results of a 2023 survey of GLTs designed to examine the dynamics of population recovery following yellow fever. Results indicate that populations hard hit by yellow fever are recovering due in part to immigration from adjacent forest fragments. No local extirpations were observed. About 4800 GLTs live in the survey area. This represents a 31% increase since the baseline survey completed in 2014. Two factors explain most of the increase: four large areas that had no GLTs or very low-density populations in 2014 are now at moderate density (three areas) or low density (one area), explaining 71% of overall increase since 2014. Increase in forest area within our survey area may explain up to 16% of the increase in GLT numbers since 2014. Results of computer simulations suggest that strengthening forest connectivity will facilitate metapopulation resilience in the face of mortality factors such as yellow fever.

A compartment and metapopulation model of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in southwestern United States and northern Mexico.

Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is a fatal tick-borne zoonotic disease that has emerged as an epidemic in western North America since the turn of the 21st century. Along the US south-western border and across northern Mexico, the brown dog tick, Rhipicephalus sanguineus, is responsible for spreading the disease between dogs and humans. The widespread nature of the disease and the ongoing epidemics contrast with historically sporadic patterns of the disease. Because dogs are amplifying hosts for the Rickettsia rickettsii bacteria, transmission dynamics between dogs and ticks are critical for understanding the epidemic. In this paper, we developed a compartment metapopulation model and used it to explore the dynamics and drivers of RMSF in dogs and brown dog ticks in a theoretical region in western North America. We discovered that there is an extended lag-as much as two years-between introduction of the pathogen to a naïve population and epidemic-level transmission, suggesting that infected ticks could disseminate extensively before disease is detected. A single large city-size population of dogs was sufficient to maintain the disease over a decade and serve as a source for disease in surrounding smaller towns. This model is a novel tool that can be used to identify high risk areas and key intervention points for epidemic RMSF spread by brown dog ticks.

Spatial distribution of Triatoma dimidiata peridomestic colonies modulated by distance between susceptible microhabitat patches.

Triatoma dimidiata is a vector of the hemoparasite Trypanosoma cruzi, the causal agent of Chagas disease. It settles reproductive colonies in the peridomicile of the premises. The peridomicile is comprised of a random set of artificial and natural features that overlap and assemble a network of microenvironmental suitable sites (patches) that interact with each other and favor the structure and proliferation of T. dimidiata colonies. The heterogeneity of patch characteristics hinders the understanding and identification of sites susceptible to colonization. In this study, a classification system using a random forest algorithm was used to identify peridomiciles susceptible to colonization to describe the spatial distribution of these sites and their relationship with the colonies of T. dimidiata in ten localities of Yucatan. From 1,000 peridomiciles reviewed, the classification showed that 13.9 % (139) of the patches were highly susceptible (HSP), and 86.1 % (861) were less susceptible (LSP). All localities had at least one HSP. The occupancy by patch type showed that the percentage of total occupancy and by colonies was higher in the HSP, while the occupancy by adult T. dimidiata without evidence of nymphs or exuviae (propagules) was higher in the LSP. A generalized additive model (GAM) revealed that the percentage of occupied patches increases as the abundance of individuals in the localities increases however, the percentage of occupied patches in LSP is lower than occupied in HSP. Distance analyses revealed that colonies and propagules were located significantly closer (approximately 200 m) to a colony in a HSP than any colony in a LSP. The distribution of T. dimidiata in the localities was defined by the distribution of patch type; as the occupancy in these patches increased, a network of peridomestic populations was configured, which may be promoted by a greater abundance of insects inside the localities. These results reveal that the spatial distribution of T. dimidiata individuals and colonies in the peridomicile at the locality scale corresponds to a metapopulation pattern within the localities through a system of patches mediated by distance and level of the vectors' occupancy.

The emergence of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico requires a binational One Health approach.

Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is an international and quintessential One Health problem. This paper synthesizes recent knowledge in One Health, binational RMSF concerns, and veterinary and human medical perspectives to this fatal, reemerging problem. RMSF, a life-threatening tick-borne disease caused by the bacterium Rickettsia rickettsii, emerged during the first decade of the 21st century in impoverished communities in the southwestern US and northern Mexico. Lack of an index of suspicion, delay in diagnosis, and delayed initiation of antibiotic treatment contribute to fatality. Campaigns targeting dog neutering, restraint to residents' properties, and on-dog and on-premises treatment with acaricides temporarily reduce prevalence but are often untenable economically. Contemporary Mexican RMSF is hyperendemic in small communities and cities, whereas epidemics occur in the western US primarily in small tribal communities. In in both locations, the epidemics are fueled by free-roaming dogs and massive brown dog tick populations. In the US, RMSF has a case fatality rate of 5% to 7%; among thousands of annual cases in Mexico, case fatality often exceeds 30%.1,2 Numerous case patients in US border states have recent travel histories to northern Mexico. Veterinarians and physicians should alert the public to RMSF risk, methods of prevention, and the importance of urgent treatment with doxycycline if symptomatic. One Health professionals contribute ideas to manage ticks and rickettsial disease and provide broad education for the public and medical professionals. Novel management approaches include vaccine development and deployment, acaricide resistance monitoring, and modeling to guide targeted dog population management and other interventions.

Long-term supratidal rockpool invertebrate community, Discovery Bay, Jamaica.

The rockpool cluster offers unique characteristics making it a model system for general questions in ecology: (1) all rockpools share biotic history (any species can reach any rockpool); (2) they form a strong gradient of conditions from benign to harsh; (3) 1-day sampling across all rockpools ensures census consistency; (4) rockpools respond to changing conditions within a short (days) time frame; (5) they are easy to manipulate (note: the data are from an unmanipulated rockpool subset), and (6) they may act as a single metacommunity that exhibits consistent species distribution patterns on a broader scale (unpublished). Consequently, the rockpools continue generating insights, with the first publications in 1996. The data represent an intensive rockpool metacommunity monitoring project, making them of considerable value to our understanding of tropical coastal metacommunity dynamics and general ecological processes. The dataset covers surveys of invertebrate fauna in 49, primarily supratidal, rockpools on a fossil coral reef over 25 years. All rockpools occur within a 73 × 47 m array of rocks at a distance of less than 2 m from the nearest neighbor. About 200 other rockpools occur on the same area. They are in a sheltered bay (Discovery Bay, Jamaica) between 0 and 5 m from the ocean. Typically, rockpools are 5-30 cm deep and 40 cm across on average, with elevation from a few centimeters to 300 cm above sea level. Rockpools may drain excess water from precipitation or waves into other rockpools, which allows organisms to disperse passively downstream. Of the 49 rockpools in the survey, 35 are subject to occasional drying up, while the others appear permanent. Most collections (1989-2004) were annual censuses of invertebrate populations, exceeding a total of 475,000 invertebrates counted, with only minor record gaps. In all cases, species level taxonomic information consists of detailed photographs. In some cases, notes are included with the taxonomic data where species identification could not be matched to information available in the literature. Samples from 2005 to 2019 still require organism identification. Abiotic parameters were measured the day before biotic sampling took place as the process of biotic sampling can impact abiotic parameters through stirring, oxygenation and filtering (temperature, pH, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, light intensity, salinity, alkalinity, and nutrients). The cumulative richness in the metacommunity consist of 78 freshwater, marine, and brackish water taxa, with a mean richness per rockpool of 5.5 distinct species. Regarding taxonomic makeup, ostracods dominated in both diversity and number, followed by copepods, and insects. There are no copyright restrictions on the data set; please cite this data paper when using these data in publications.

Estimating the effective reproduction number for heterogeneous models using incidence data.

The effective reproduction number, R ( t ) , plays a key role in the study of infectious diseases, indicating the current average number of new infections caused by an infected individual in an epidemic process. Estimation methods for the time evolution of R ( t ) , using incidence data, rely on the generation interval distribution, g(τ), which is usually obtained from empirical data or theoretical studies using simple epidemic models. However, for systems that present heterogeneity, either on the host population or in the expression of the disease, there is a lack of data and of a suitable general methodology to obtain g(τ). In this work, we use mathematical models to bridge this gap. We present a general methodology for obtaining explicit expressions of the reproduction numbers and the generation interval distributions, within and between model sub-compartments provided by an arbitrary compartmental model. Additionally, we present the appropriate expressions to evaluate those reproduction numbers using incidence data. To highlight the relevance of such methodology, we apply it to the spread of COVID-19 in municipalities of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Using two meta-population models, we estimate the reproduction numbers and the contributions of each municipality in the generation of cases in all others.

Sex-specific differences in reproductive life-history traits of the moss Weissia jamaicensis.

PREMISE: We investigated sex-specific differences in the life-history traits of a metapopulation of the dioicous moss Weissia jamaicensis. Field observations revealed high rates of fertilization, which is uncommon for most dioicous bryophytes. We raised four hypotheses associated with the way the reproductive traits are related to the fertilization rate in this metapopulation. METHODS: We sampled 10 patches of the metapopulation and quantified sexual expression, sex ratio, reproductive success, and reproductive allocation. The ramets were classified as male, non-sporophytic female, sporophytic female, or non-sex-expressing. Thirty ramets from each of the categories expressing sex were placed for regeneration to test the effect of reproductive allocation on this trait. RESULTS: We found greater expression of the female function in all patches, implying a female bias in the metapopulation. The number of male ramets was variable in each patch and did not affect reproductive success. At the prezygotic level, the allocation of resources to the male function was higher. However, the large allocation of resources to sporophyte development in sporophytic females, which exceeded allocations at prezygotic levels, was related to the higher mortality rate of these ramets, suggesting reproductive cost. CONCLUSIONS: The prezygotic ramets that allocated the greatest amount of resources to reproduction expressed sex less frequently, biasing the sex ratio toward the sex that allocated the least amount of resources to reproduction. Overall, the ramets that allocated the greatest amount of resources to reproduction had the lowest regeneration rate, suggesting reproductive cost.

Genetic connectivity of the metapopulation of the coral Pocillopora verrucosa (Scleractinia: Pocilloporidae) in multi-use marine protected areas of the Gulf of California, and management implications / Conectividad genética de la metapoblación del coral Pocillopora verrucosa (Scleractinia: Pocilloporidae) en áreas protegidas multipropósito del Golfo de California, e implicaciones de manejo

Abstract Introduction: Estimates of contemporary connectivity of the broadcast spawning coral Pocillopora verrucosa between multi-use marine protected areas (MUMPAs) are required to assess MUMPA effectiveness and their ability to enhance resilience against disturbances. Objective: To determine the genetic structure and connectivity patterns between P. verrucosa demes inside the Gulf of California and evaluate the role and effectiveness of established MUMPAS in their protection and resilience. Methods: We assessed P. verrucosa connectivity along its peninsular range (∼350 km), including five locations and three MUMPAs in the Gulf of California using six microsatellite genetic markers. Results: Population structure was significant (F ST = 0.108***) when demes included clonal replicates; however, when these clones were removed from the analysis, the sexual individuals comprised a metapopulation panmixia (F ST = 0.0007 NS). To further understand connectivity patterns, an assignment test was carried out which identified ten recent between-deme migrants with a mean dispersal distance of 116.6 km (± 80.5 SE). No long-distance dispersal was detected. These results highlight the ecological importance of the Bahía de La Paz region, including Archipiélago de Espíritu Santo MUMPA. This region, located at the center of the species peninsular range, exports larva to downstream sink demes such as the Loreto (northwardly) and Cabo Pulmo (southwardly) MUMPAs. Of importance, inter-MUMPA spacing was larger than the mean larval dispersal by ~56 km, suggesting thar the designation of intermediate 'no-take' zones would enhance short-distance connectivity. Conclusion: This study contributes as a baseline for policymakers and authorities to provide robust strategies for coral ecosystem protection and suggest that protection efforts must be increased towards peninsular intermediate reefs to promote metapopulation resilience from natural and anthropogenic factors.

Resumen Introducción: La estimación de la conectividad en corales escleractinios, como P. verrucosa, dentro de una red de áreas marinas protegidas (MPA) preestablecidas es fundamental para garantizar la efectividad en su conservación e incrementar su resiliencia. Objetivo: Determinar la estructura genética y la conectividad entre los demes de P. verrucosa dentro del Golfo de California, y evaluar el papel y efectividad de la red preestablecida de áreas marinas protegidas. Métodos: Se evaluó la conectividad de P. verrucosa en cinco locaciones a lo largo del golfo incluyendo tres MPA usando seis marcadores microsatélites. Resultados: Se demostró que existe estructura poblacional adjudicada a la presencia local y heterogénea de individuos clones (F ST = 0.108***); pero al removerlos del análisis, los individuos de origen sexual conformaron una metapoblación en panmixia (F ST = 0.0007 NS). Así mismo, se identificaron 10 potenciales migrantes en la región con una dispersión promedio de 116.57 km (± 80.47 SE) y sin conexión entre localidades extremas. De relevancia, se identificó la importancia ecológica del área central o Bahía de La Paz y MPA Archipiélago Espíritu Santo, como fuente larvaria de corales a toda la región. Además, se determinó que el espacio inter-MPA fue mayor que la distancia de dispersión promedio larvaria mencionada, por lo que sería de importancia ecológica el establecimiento de MPAs intermedias que favorezcan la conectividad a distancias cortas. Conclusiones: Los resultados encontrados en el estudio son pertinentes y contribuyen como línea base para los tomadores de decisiones y autoridades, proporcionando la conectividad de la región para establecer las estrategias de protección apropiadas, sugiriendo aumentar la conservación de las subpoblaciones centrales, la cuales promueven la resiliencia metapoblacional de P. verrucosa ante factores ambientales y/o antropogénicos.

The Galápagos Islands: biogeographic patterns and geology.

In the traditional biogeographic model, the Galápagos Islands appeared a few million years ago in a sea where no other islands existed and were colonized from areas outside the region. However, recent work has shown that the Galápagos hotspot is 139 million years old (Early Cretaceous), and so groups are likely to have survived at the hotspot by dispersal of populations onto new islands from older ones. This process of metapopulation dynamics means that species can persist indefinitely in an oceanic region, as long as new islands are being produced. Metapopulations can also undergo vicariance into two metapopulations, for example at active island arcs that are rifted by transform faults. We reviewed the geographic relationships of Galápagos groups and found 10 biogeographic patterns that are shared by at least two groups. Each of the patterns coincides spatially with a major tectonic structure; these structures include: the East Pacific Rise; west Pacific and American subduction zones; large igneous plateaus in the Pacific; Alisitos terrane (Baja California), Guerrero terrane (western Mexico); rifting of North and South America; formation of the Caribbean Plateau by the Galápagos hotspot, and its eastward movement; accretion of Galápagos hotspot tracks; Andean uplift; and displacement on the Romeral fault system. All these geological features were active in the Cretaceous, suggesting that geological change at that time caused vicariance in widespread ancestors. The present distributions are explicable if ancestors survived as metapopulations occupying both the Galápagos hotspot and other regions before differentiating, more or less in situ.

Metapopulation dynamics of the migratory fish Prochilodus lineatus (Characiformes: Prochilodontidae) in a lotic remnant of the Grande River, Southeastern Brazil

River impoundments for electricity generation lead to environmental changes which severely affect fish migration and species richness. However, little is known about their effect on the genetic structure and population dynamics downstream from the reservoir. Here, we analyzed a set of ten microsatellite loci of Prochilodus lineatus, an important South American migratory fish. Specimens (n = 150) were sampled from five sites in a remnant lotic system that includes sections of the Grande, Pardo and Mogi Guaçu rivers, southeastern Brazil. The data showed that all microsatellites were polymorphic with the allele number per locus ranging from 5 to 32, and genetic diversity (H e ) varied from 0.74 to 0.80. Indices of genetic differentiation and Bayesian analysis showed a significant genetic structure and three genetic clusters inhabiting this river system. An asymmetric gene flow suggests source-sink metapopulation dynamics from tributaries (genetic source) to the main river (genetic sink). A genetic cluster that was not detected in the upper Mogi and Pardo rivers tributaries may indicate there is a "trapped gene pool" downstream from the Porto Colômbia dam. Thus, here we provide new insights into the genetic structure and population dynamics of a migratory fish species in a highly dammed river basin.(AU)

Represamento de rios para geração de eletricidade levam a mudanças ambientais que afetam severamente a migração de peixes e riqueza de espécies. No entanto, pouco se sabe sobre seu efeito na estrutura genética e dinâmica populacional a jusante de reservatórios. Aqui, analisamos um conjunto de dez loci de microssatélites de Prochilodus lineatus, um importante peixe migratório sul-americano. Os espécimes (n = 150) foram amostrados em cinco locais de um sistema lótico remanescente que inclui seções dos rios Grande, Pardo e Mogi Guaçu, sudeste do Brasil. Os dados mostraram que todos microssatélites eram polimórficos com o número de alelos por locus variando de 5 a 32 e diversidade genética (H e ) variou de 0,74 a 0,80. Índices de diferenciação genética e análise de agrupamento baseada em modelo bayesiano indicou a presença de três agrupamentos genéticos habitando este sistema fluvial. Um fluxo gênico assimétrico sugere dinâmica metapopulacional de fonte-sumidouro dos tributários (fonte genética) para o rio principal (sumidouro genético). Um agrupamento genético que não foi detectado nos tributários rio Mogi e rio Pardo parecem indicar que há um "trapped gene pool" a jusante da represa de Porto Colômbia. Assim, nós provemos aqui novos conhecimentos sobre a estrutura genética e dinâmica populacional de uma espécie de peixe migratório em um rio altamente fragmentado por barramentos.(AU)

Metapopulation dynamics of the migratory fish Prochilodus lineatus (Characiformes: Prochilodontidae) in a lotic remnant of the Grande River, Southeastern Brazil

River impoundments for electricity generation lead to environmental changes which severely affect fish migration and species richness. However, little is known about their effect on the genetic structure and population dynamics downstream from the reservoir. Here, we analyzed a set of ten microsatellite loci of Prochilodus lineatus, an important South American migratory fish. Specimens (n = 150) were sampled from five sites in a remnant lotic system that includes sections of the Grande, Pardo and Mogi Guaçu rivers, southeastern Brazil. The data showed that all microsatellites were polymorphic with the allele number per locus ranging from 5 to 32, and genetic diversity (H e ) varied from 0.74 to 0.80. Indices of genetic differentiation and Bayesian analysis showed a significant genetic structure and three genetic clusters inhabiting this river system. An asymmetric gene flow suggests source-sink metapopulation dynamics from tributaries (genetic source) to the main river (genetic sink). A genetic cluster that was not detected in the upper Mogi and Pardo rivers tributaries may indicate there is a "trapped gene pool" downstream from the Porto Colômbia dam. Thus, here we provide new insights into the genetic structure and population dynamics of a migratory fish species in a highly dammed river basin.(AU)

Represamento de rios para geração de eletricidade levam a mudanças ambientais que afetam severamente a migração de peixes e riqueza de espécies. No entanto, pouco se sabe sobre seu efeito na estrutura genética e dinâmica populacional a jusante de reservatórios. Aqui, analisamos um conjunto de dez loci de microssatélites de Prochilodus lineatus, um importante peixe migratório sul-americano. Os espécimes (n = 150) foram amostrados em cinco locais de um sistema lótico remanescente que inclui seções dos rios Grande, Pardo e Mogi Guaçu, sudeste do Brasil. Os dados mostraram que todos microssatélites eram polimórficos com o número de alelos por locus variando de 5 a 32 e diversidade genética (H e ) variou de 0,74 a 0,80. Índices de diferenciação genética e análise de agrupamento baseada em modelo bayesiano indicou a presença de três agrupamentos genéticos habitando este sistema fluvial. Um fluxo gênico assimétrico sugere dinâmica metapopulacional de fonte-sumidouro dos tributários (fonte genética) para o rio principal (sumidouro genético). Um agrupamento genético que não foi detectado nos tributários rio Mogi e rio Pardo parecem indicar que há um "trapped gene pool" a jusante da represa de Porto Colômbia. Assim, nós provemos aqui novos conhecimentos sobre a estrutura genética e dinâmica populacional de uma espécie de peixe migratório em um rio altamente fragmentado por barramentos.(AU)

The Mayaro virus and its potential epidemiological consequences in Colombia: an exploratory biomathematics analysis.

BACKGROUND: Mayaro virus (Togaviridae) is an endemic arbovirus of the Americas with epidemiological similarities with the agents of other more prominent diseases such as dengue (Flaviviridae), Zika (Flaviviridae), and chikungunya (Togaviridae). It is naturally transmitted in a sylvatic/rural cycle by Haemagogus spp., but, potentially, it could be incorporated and transmitted in an urban cycle by Aedes aegypti, a vector widely disseminated in the Americas. METHODS: The Mayaro arbovirus dynamics was simulated mathematically in the colombian population in the eight biogeographical provinces, bearing in mind the vector's population movement between provinces through passive transport via truck cargo. The parameters involved in the virus epidemiological dynamics, as well as the vital rates of Ae. aegypti in each of the biogeographical provinces were obtained from the literature. These data were included in a meta-population model in differential equations, represented by a model structured by age for the dynamic population of Ae. aegypti combined with an epidemiological SEI/SEIR-type model. In addition, the model was incorporated with a term of migration to represent the connectivity between the biogeographical provinces. RESULTS: The vital rates and the development cycle of Ae. aegypti varied between provinces, having greater biological potential between 23 °C and 28 °C in provinces of Imerí, biogeographical Chocó, and Magdalena, with respect to the North-Andean Moorland (9.33-21.38 °C). Magdalena and Maracaibo had the highest flow of land cargo. The results of the simulations indicate that Magdalena, Imerí, and biogeographical Chocó would be the most affected regarding the number of cases of people infected by Mayaro virus over time. CONCLUSIONS: The temperature in each of the provinces influences the local population dynamics of Ae. aegypti and passive migration via transport of land cargo plays an important role on how the Mayaro virus would be disseminated in the human population. Once this arbovirus begins an urban cycle, the most-affected departments would be Antioquia, Santander, Norte de Santander, Cesar (Provinces of Magdalena), and Valle del Cauca, and Chocó (biogeographical province of Chocó), which is why vector control programmes must aim their efforts at these departments and include some type of vector control to the transport of land cargo to avoid a future Mayaro epidemic.

Severe airport sanitarian control could slow down the spreading of COVID-19 pandemics in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: We investigated a likely scenario of COVID-19 spreading in Brazil through the complex airport network of the country, for the 90 days after the first national occurrence of the disease. After the confirmation of the first imported cases, the lack of a proper airport entrance control resulted in the infection spreading in a manner directly proportional to the amount of flights reaching each city, following the first occurrence of the virus coming from abroad. METHODOLOGY: We developed a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model divided in a metapopulation structure, where cities with airports were demes connected by the number of flights. Subsequently, we further explored the role of the Manaus airport for a rapid entrance of the pandemic into indigenous territories situated in remote places of the Amazon region. RESULTS: The expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 virus between cities was fast, directly proportional to the city closeness centrality within the Brazilian air transportation network. There was a clear pattern in the expansion of the pandemic, with a stiff exponential expansion of cases for all the cities. The more a city showed closeness centrality, the greater was its vulnerability to SARS-CoV-2. CONCLUSIONS: We discussed the weak pandemic control performance of Brazil in comparison with other tropical, developing countries, namely India and Nigeria. Finally, we proposed measures for containing virus spreading taking into consideration the scenario of high poverty.

Using metapopulation theory for practical conservation of mangrove endemic birds.

As a landscape becomes increasingly fragmented through habitat loss, the individual patches become smaller and more isolated and thus less likely to sustain a local population. Metapopulation theory is appropriate for analyzing fragmented landscapes because it combines empirical landscape features with species-specific information to produce direct information on population extinction risks. This approach contrasts with descriptions of habitat fragments, which provide only indirect information on risk. Combining a spatially explicit metapopulation model with empirical data on endemic species' ranges and maps of habitat cover, we calculated the metapopulation capacity-a measure of a landscape's ability to sustain a metapopulation. Mangroves provide an ideal model landscape because they are of conservation concern and their patch boundaries are easily delineated. For 2000-20015, we calculated global metapopulation capacity for 99 metapopulations of 32 different bird species endemic to mangroves. Northern Australia and Southeast Asia had the highest richness of mangrove endemic birds. The Caribbean, Pacific coast of Central America, Madagascar, Borneo, and isolated patches in Southeast Asia in Myanmar and Malaysia had the highest metapopulation losses. Regions with the highest loss of habitat area were not necessarily those with the highest loss of metapopulation capacity. Often, it was not a matter of how much, but how the habitat was lost. Our method can be used by managers to evaluate and prioritize a landscape for metapopulation persistence.

Uso de la Teoría de Metapoblaciones para la Conservación Práctica de las Aves Endémicas de Manglares Resumen A medida que un paisaje se fragmenta cada vez más debido a la pérdida de hábitat, los parches se vuelven más pequeños y aislados y, por lo tanto, menos propensos a sostener a una población local. La teoría de metapoblaciones es adecuada para analizar paisajes fragmentados porque combina características empíricas del paisaje con información de cada especie para producir información directa sobre los riesgos de extinción de la población. Este enfoque contrasta con las descripciones de los fragmentos de hábitat que solo proporcionan información directa sobre el riesgo. Mediante la combinación de un modelo metapoblacional espacialmente explícito con datos empíricos de los rangos de distribución de especies endémicas y mapas de la cobertura del hábitat, calculamos la capacidad de la metapoblación - una medida de la capacidad del paisaje para sostener una metapoblación. Los manglares proporcionan un paisaje modelo ideal porque son de interés para la conservación y los límites de los parches son delineados fácilmente. Calculamos la capacidad de la metapoblación global para el período 2000-2015 de 99 metapoblaciones de 32 especies de aves endémicas de manglares. El norte de Australia y el sudeste de Asia tuvieron la mayor riqueza de aves endémicas de manglares. El Caribe, la costa del Pacífico de Centroamérica, Madagascar, Borneo y parches aislados en el sudeste de Asia en Myanmar y Malasia tuvieron las mayores pérdidas de metapoblaciones. Las regiones con mayor pérdida hábitat fueron necesariamente aquellas con mayor pérdida de capacidad de la metapoblación. A menudo no era una cuestión de cuánto, sino cómo se perdió el hábitat. Nuestro método se puede utilizar por manejadores para evaluar y priorizar un paisaje para la persistencia de la metapoblación.

From individual movement behaviour to landscape-scale invasion dynamics and management: a case study of lionfish metapopulations.

Modelling the dynamics of small, interconnected populations, or metapopulations, can help pinpoint habitat patches that are critical for population persistence in patchy habitats. For conservation purposes, these patches are typically earmarked for protection, but for invasive species management, these patches could be targeted to hasten the populations' demise. Here, we show how metapopulation modelling, coupled with an understanding of size-dependent dispersal behaviour, can be used to help optimize the distribution of limited resources for culling specific populations of invasive Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans) in the western Atlantic. Through simulation using fitted model parameters, we derive three insights that can inform management. First, culling lionfish from target patches reduces the probability of lionfish occupancy at surrounding patches. Second, this effect depends on patch size and connectivity, but is strongest at the local scale and decays with distance. Finally, size-dependent dispersal in lionfish means that size-selective culling can change both a population's size distribution and dispersal potential, with cascading effects on network connectivity, population dynamics and management outcomes. By explicitly considering seascape structure and movement behaviour when allocating effort to the management of invasive species, managers can optimize resource use to improve management outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation'.

Drought-mediated extinction of an arid-land amphibian: insights from a spatially explicit dynamic occupancy model.

Understanding how natural and anthropogenic processes affect population dynamics of species with patchy distributions is critical to predicting their responses to environmental changes. Despite considerable evidence that demographic rates and dispersal patterns vary temporally in response to an array of biotic and abiotic processes, few applications of metapopulation theory have sought to explore factors that explain spatiotemporal variation in extinction or colonization rates. To facilitate exploring these factors, we extended a spatially explicit model of metapopulation dynamics to create a framework that requires only binary presence-absence data, makes few assumptions about the dispersal process, and accounts for imperfect detection. We apply this framework to 22 yr of biannual survey data for lowland leopard frogs, Lithobates yavapaiensis, an amphibian that inhabits arid stream systems in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for factors that govern temporal variation in transition probabilities, as both extinction and colonization rates varied with hydrologic conditions. Specifically, local extinctions were more frequent during drought periods, particularly at sites without reliable surface water. Colonization rates increased when larval and dispersal periods were wetter than normal, which increased the probability that potential emigrants metamorphosed and reached neighboring sites. Extirpation of frogs from all sites in one watershed during a period of severe drought demonstrated the influence of site-level features, as frogs persisted only in areas where most sites held water consistently and where the amount of sediment deposited from high-elevation wildfires was low. Application of our model provided novel insights into how climate-related processes affected the distribution and population dynamics of an arid-land amphibian. The approach we describe has application to a wide array of species that inhabit patchy environments, can improve our understanding of factors that govern metapopulation dynamics, and can inform strategies for conservation of imperiled species.

Population Dynamics of Anopheles albimanus (Diptera: Culicidae) at Ipetí-Guna, a Village in a Region Targeted for Malaria Elimination in Panamá.

Anopheles albimanus Wiedemann is a major malaria vector in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean whose population dynamics, in response to changing environments, has been relatively poorly studied. Here, we present monthly adult and larvae data collected from May 2016 to December 2017 in Ipetí-Guna, a village within an area targeted for malaria elimination in the República de Panamá. During the study period we collected a total of 1678 Anopheles spp. mosquitoes (1602 adults and 76 larvae). Over 95% of the collected Anopheles spp. mosquitoes were An. albimanus. Using time series analysis techniques, we found that population dynamics of larvae and adults were not significantly correlated with each other at any time lag, though correlations were highest at one month lag between larvae and adults and four months lag between adults and larvae. Larvae population dynamics had cycles of three months and were sensitive to changes in temperature with 5 months lag, while adult abundance was correlated with itself (1 month lag) and with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with three months lag. A key observation from our study is the absence of both larvae and adults of An. albimanus between January and April from environments associated with Guna population's daily activities, which suggests this time window could be the best time to implement elimination campaigns aimed at clearing Plasmodium spp. parasites from Guna populations using, for example, mass drug administration.

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas.

We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to analyze the spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas. The model has high spatial and temporal resolution and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014 (90% credible interval). We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for several countries in the Americas through February 2017. The ZIKV epidemic is characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and to the characteristics and mobility of the human populations. We project the expected timing and number of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester and provide estimates of microcephaly cases assuming different levels of risk as reported in empirical retrospective studies. Our approach represents a modeling effort aimed at understanding the potential magnitude and timing of the ZIKV epidemic and it can be potentially used as a template for the analysis of future mosquito-borne epidemics.