Estimates of the population of Puerto Rico and the outlying areas: 1980 to 1986.

PIP: This report presents estimates of the population for July 1, 1980 to 1986 for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, and The Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Census counts for 1980 are also shown for each of the areas. Components of population change for these areas for the 1980-1986 period are also shown. Most of the statistics used to prepare the area estimates were obtained from the local governments of the outlying areas. Except for Puerto Rico, all of the areas estimated are growing at a rate well above that of the US (64% from April 1, 1980 to July 1, 1986). Of the areas, Guam has exhibited the highest % of growth since 1980--19.6%. Although Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands have increased in population since 1890, both experienced population declines between 1985 and 1986. The Virgin Islands' population declined by 1.2%, from 110,800 to 109,500, while Puerto Rico's decreased by 3%, from 3,282,000 to 3,274,000.^ieng

International migration statistics in Mexico.

PIP: During the past decade, Mexico has experienced both large-scale emigration directly, mostly to the US, and the mass immigration of Central American refugees. The implementation of the US Immigration and Control Act of 1986 and the possible escalation of armed conflicts in Central America may result in expanded inflows either of returning citizens or of new refugee waves. To develop appropriate policy responses, Mexico needs reliable information on international migration flows. This research note reviews available sources of that information--arrival and departure statistics, population censuses, refugee censuses, and survey data--and concludes that most of them are relatively weak. Currently, the published data on entries and departures provide little information on the demographic impact of legal migration, although they suggest that the inflow of foreigners is small. The census corroborates such findings, but it yields inadequate demographic detail. The movement of Mexican nationals, on the other hand, is poorly reflected by both sources. The void they leave has been palliated somewhat by surveys, but the only nationally representative survey on emigration was carried out in the late 1970s and might be a less than ideal basis for current policy formulation. It is hoped that as the relevance of international migration becomes more evident, steps towards the improvement of existing statistical systems may be undertaken. In the absence of such measures, policy-makers and researchers will have to continue relying on ad hoc surveys to answer the most pressing questions on the subject.^ieng

International migration data: their problems and usefulness in Venezuela.

PIP: During the 1940s and 1950s Venezuela was an important destination for migrants from Southern Europe, a flow that disappeared almost entirely during the 1960s, to be replaced by border movements and the largely illegal migration of Colombians. The oil boom of the 1970s saw an increase of the latter, which may have subsided during the 1980s due to the more difficult economic conditions that have also led to significant emigration levels of Venezuelans and former immigrants. Methods of data collection systems that provide information on migrants include the National Population and Housing Census, the National Household Survey, migration surveys, arrival and departure statistics, registration systems operated by the Direccion General Sectorial de identificacion y Control de Extranjeros, the 1980 regularization drive, statistics gathered by the Ministry of Labor, and vital and civil registration statistics. The lack of effective coordination among the different government agencies gathering information and the administrative nature of the data collected give rise to problems of comparability. Mechanisms to publish and disseminate the data available are not well developed, so that researchers often have no access to potentially useful sources of information. Problems of timeliness in the publication of the most widely used information are also present, as is the large gap existing in data pertaining to emigration, be it of Venezuelan nationals or of immigrants leaving the country.^ieng

The estimation of lifetime emigration from data on the residence of children: the case of Colombia.

PIP: Information on the place of residence of surviving children as reported by their mothers is used to estimate the level of lifetime emigration. The analysis is carried out on data from the 1980 National Household Survey (NHS). Additional information on specific country of residence allows the estimation of the number of Colombian emigrants present in Venezuela. The number of children who were living abroad at the time of the survey, classified by sex and by 5-year age group of mother, are used to estimate the total level of lifetime emigration and the age distribution of emigrants. Once the age distribution of surviving children is available, it is used to infer that of the emigrant children as reported by their mothers. In the case of Colombia, there were no emigrant sons reported by women under 30, and only 1 emigrant daughter was reported by women in that age group. The outcome implies not only that the incidence of independent emigration below age 15 is very low but also that it is probably not reflected accurately by a survey of the size of the 1980 NHS. Once the distribution of emigrants whose mothers are alive and living in their country of origin is obtained, it is a simple matter to adjust the figures for the incidence of maternal orphanhood. The estimation of those emigrating with their mothers is affected by the greatest degree of arbitrariness. Finally, to conclude the estimation procedure, allowance must be made for the incidence of orphanhood among the offspring of emigrant mothers. The emigration estimates derived from indirect data fall far short of the standards of reliability associated with other types of indirect estimates; nevertheless, they can be very useful tools in assessing the plausibility of claims that are too often the only information available on international migration.^ieng

Metropolitan migration and population growth in selected developing countries.

PIP: The purpose of this article is to estimate the components of metropolitan population growth in selected developing countries during 1960-1970 period. The study examines population growth in 26 cities: 5 are in Africa, 8 in Asia, and 13 in Latin America, using data from national census publications. These cities in general are the political capitals of their countries, but some additional large cities were selected in Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa. All cities, at the beginning of the 1960-1970 decade had over 500,000 population; Accra, the only exception, reached this population level during the 1960s. Some cities had over 4 million residents in 1970. Net migration contributed about 37% to total metropolitan population growth; the remainder of the growth is attributable to natural increase. Migration has a much stronger impact on metropolitan growth than suggested by the above figure: 1) Several metropolitan areas, for various reasons, are unlikely to receive many migrants; without those cities, the share of metropolitan growth from net migration is 44%. 2) Estimates of the natural increase of migrants after their arrival in the metropolitan areas, when added to migration itself, changes the total contribution of migration to 49% in some metropolitan areas. 3) Even where net migration contributes a smaller proportion to metropolitan growth than natural increase, the rates of net migration are generally high and should be viewed in the context of rapid metropolitan population growth from natural increase alone. Finally, the paper also compares the components of metropolitan growth with the components of growth in the remaining urban areas. The results show that the metropolitan areas, in general, grow faster than the remaining urban areas, and that this more rapid growth is mostly due to a higher rate of net migration. Given the significance of migration for metropolitan growth, further investigations of the effects of these migration streams, particularly with respect to in-migration and out-migration, would greatly benefit understanding of the detailed and interconnected process of population growth, migration, employment and social welfare of city residents.^ieng

International migration from the Dominican Republic: findings from a national survey.

PIP: Results of a survey which sought to provide a profile of international Dominican migrants indicate that international migration from the Dominican Republic is primarily a middle class urban phenomenon, with rural unemployment representing only a small segment of the migration flow. The strongest reasons for emigrating were economic, and most migrants tended to leave the Dominican Republic at the peak of their productivity. The profile of the migrant which emerged from the survey does not fit the stereotype of an illiterate, unskilled, and unemployable individual who decides to emigrate to receive welfare. Results also show that about 40% of migrants had returned at the time of the survey, and suggest that the poorer the migrant, the less likely it is he/she will return. Most persons migrating in order to study tend to return after their studies are over, and a large number of migrants have trouble adjusting to a foreign society. Finally, international net migration does not seem to be increasing; in fact the findings suggest that net migration declined considerably in the 1970s, after reaching a peak in the 1960s.^ieng

[The exodus of Colombians between 1963-1973]. / El exodo de colombianos en el periodo 1963-1973.

PIP: Prior to 1964 the Colombian population was rather stationary, with net migration having little effect on the total volume of population. Between the 1963 and the 1973 censuses the displacement of Colombians abroad took place on such a large scale as to have a significant effect on the demographic structure of the country. The deterioration of living standards in Colombia in combination with a lack of economic opportunities, accounts for this mass exodus to countries with stronger economies. A large portion of those who leave establish themselves in foreign countries as illegal aliens. Immigration to the U.S. and Venezuela accounts for 85% of the total migration. Official statistics for Venezuela indicate that there are more than 300,000 Colombians living there illegally, but unofficial sources state that the figure is closer to 2 million. In the U.S. there are more than 25,000 Colombians registered, but a more reasonable estimate of 1,200,000 Colombians living there is closer to reality. The author offers several hypotheses for the increase in the number of illegal aliens to the U.S. These include favorable conditions for legal immigration until 1965, and increasing promotion of tourism to the U.S., with greater opportunity to remain there beyond the visa period. Between 1967 and 1969 new restrictions on immigration were imposed by U.S. authorities, causing a drop of entries into the U.S. After this initial period, however, the number of Colombians coming to the U.S. increased again. This study includes charts which indicate legal and illegal immigration, and deportations. These categories are analyzed on the basis of sex, age, country of destination, and place of origin in Colombia.^ieng