Designing social distancing policies for the COVID-19 pandemic: A probabilistic model predictive control approach.

The effective control of the COVID-19 pandemic is one the most challenging issues of recent years. The design of optimal control policies is challenging due to a variety of social, political, economical and epidemiological factors. Here, based on epidemiological data reported in recent studies for the Italian region of Lombardy, which experienced one of the largest and most devastating outbreaks in Europe during the first wave of the pandemic, we present a probabilistic model predictive control (PMPC) approach for the systematic study of what if scenarios of social distancing in a retrospective analysis for the first wave of the pandemic in Lombardy. The performance of the proposed PMPC was assessed based on simulations of a compartmental model that was developed to quantify the uncertainty in the level of the asymptomatic cases in the population, and the synergistic effect of social distancing during various activities, and public awareness campaign prompting people to adopt cautious behaviors to reduce the risk of disease transmission. The PMPC takes into account the social mixing effect, i.e. the effect of the various activities in the potential transmission of the disease. The proposed approach demonstrates the utility of a PMPC approach in addressing COVID-19 transmission and implementing public relaxation policies.

Análisis mediante encuesta telemática de la adherencia a la dieta Mediterranea al inicio de la pandemia por COVID-19 / Analysis by means of a telematic survey of adherence to the Mediterranean diet at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic

Introducción: La elección de los alimentos en época de confinamiento están influenciadas por múltiples factores como pueden ser la disponibilidad alimentaria que puede verse reducida y que constituyó uno de los principales retos a afrontar por los gobiernos en las pandemias pasadas, el estatus económico familiar que puede variar, así como el propio hecho del confinamiento que proporciona al grupo familiar de más tiempo para dedicar a la preparación de distintos platos pero también les sitúa en una situación que puede ser vivida como estresante y conducir a pautas distintas de consumo alimentario. Objetivo: Conocer el patrón dietético habitual, es decir previo al confinamiento recabando esta información en el momento en que se iniciaba aquel. Método: Estudio observacional transversal mediante encuesta alimentaria telemática anónima en línea que monitorizó la adherencia a la dieta mediterránea en tiempo real en 492 adultos de España en la pandemia por covid19 durante la segunda quincena del mes marzo 2020. Resultados: Nuestro estudio muestra que el grado de adherencia a la DM en la primera parte del confinamiento ha sido elevado, mostrando una puntuación de 10.0 ± 2.0 en el test de MEDAS y de 9.3± 2.1 en el PREDIMED modificado. En concreto en nuestro estudio un 77% de la población estudiada presenta una alta adherencia a la dieta mediterránea frente a moderada adherencia el 22,4%y baja el 5%. Conclusiones: Nuestro estudio refleja una alta adherencia de los participantes a la Dieta Mediterránea.(AU)

Introduction: The choice of food in times of confinement is influenced by multiple factors such as food availability that may be reduced and that constituted one of the main challenges to be faced by governments in past pandemics, the family economic status that can vary, as well as the fact of confinement that provides the family group with more time to dedicate to preparing different dishes but also places them in a situation that can be experienced as stressful and lead to different patterns of food consumption. Objective: To know the usual dietary pattern, that is, prior to confinement, collecting this information at the time it began. Method. Cross-sectional observational study using an anonymous online telematic food survey that monitored adherence to the Mediterranean diet in real time in 492 adults from Spain in the pandemic by covid19 during the second half of March 2020. Results: Our study shows that the degree of adherence to DM in the first part of confinement has been high, showing a score of 10.0 ± 2.0 in the MEDAS test and 9.3 ± 2.1 in the modified PREDIMED. Specifically, in our study, 77% of the studied population had a high adherence to the Mediterranean diet, compared to a moderate adherence in 22.4% and a low adherence in 5%. Conclusions: Our study reflects a high adherence of the participants to the Mediterranean Diet.(AU)