Strong El Niño reduces fruit production of Brazil-nut trees in the eastern Amazon / Forte El Niño reduz a produção de frutos de castanheiras na Amazônia Oriental

The Brazil-nut tree (Bertholletia excelsa) is native to the Amazon rainforest, and its fruit production varies naturally with climatic conditions. Our aim was to evaluate the temporal variation in Brazil-nut production associated with climatic variables, including the strong El Niño of 2015/2016. The study was carried out in two 9-ha permanent plots in the northeastern Brazilian Amazon from 2007 to 2018: one in forest (12-year monitoring) and the other in savannah/forest transition (eight years). Overall, we monitored fruit production of 205 trees with diameter at breast height ≥ 50 cm. Annual fruit production was related to temporal series (2005-2018) of climatic data (the Oceanic Niño Index; and precipitation and air temperature from two local meteorological stations). Average fruit production per tree in 2017 was eight times lower than in 2015 and two times lower than the general average for both sites, and was significantly associated to the El Niño of 2015/2016, that increased average maximum monthly temperature and reduced the precipitation in the region, extending the dry season from three to six months. Years with higher and lower fruit production per tree coincided in both sites. Annual fruit production was significantly and negatively correlated with thermal anomalies that occurred in the third semester prior to harvest monitoring. Years with higher production were related with predominance of neutrality or the La Niña phenomenon at the global scale, and higher rainfall at the local scale. The relationship of fruit production with climate was independent of the local habitat.

A castanheira-da-amazônia (Bertholletia excelsa) é nativa da floresta amazônica e sua produção de frutos varia naturalmente com as condições climáticas. Nosso objetivo foi avaliar a variação temporal na produção de frutos da castanheira associada a variáveis ​​climáticas, incluindo o forte El Nino de 2015/2016. O estudo foi realizado em parcelas permanentes de 9 ha de 2007 a 2018, uma localizada em floresta (12 anos de monitoramento) e a outra em transição floresta/savana (oito anos). Em total, monitoramos 205 castanheiras com diâmetro à altura do peito ≥ 50 cm. A produção anual de frutos foi relacionada a séries temporais (2005-2018) de dados climáticos (o Índice Oceânico Niño; e a precipitação e temperatura do ar de duas estações meteorológicas locais). A produção média por castanheira em 2017 foi oito vezes menor que em 2015 e duas vezes menor que a média geral nos dois sítios, e foi significativamente associada ao El Niño de 2015/2016, que causou aumento na temperatura máxima mensal e redução na precipitação regional, prolongando a estação seca de três para seis meses. Os anos com maior e menor produção média por castanheira foram os mesmos nos dois ambientes. A produção anual de frutos foi significativa e negativamente correlacionada com as anomalias térmicas ocorridas no terceiro semestre antes da colheita. Anos de maior produção foram relacionados com predominância de neutralidade ou do fenômeno La Niña em escala global, e aumento da precipitação em nível local. A relação entre produção de frutos e clima foi independente do ambiente local.

Time-Series Study of Associations between Rates of People Affected by Disasters and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of climatic variability that can have far reaching consequences for public health globally. We explored whether global, regional and country-level rates of people affected by natural disasters (PAD) are linked to ENSO. Annual numbers of PAD between 1964-2017 recorded on the EM-DAT disaster database were combined with UN population data to create PAD rates. Time-series regression was used to assess de-trended associations between PAD and 2 ENSO indices: Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and multivariate El Niño Index (MEI). Over 95% of PAD were caused by floods, droughts or storms, with over 75% of people affected by these three disasters residing in Asia. Globally, drought-related PAD rate increased sharply in El Niño years (versus neutral years). Flood events were the disaster type most strongly associated with El Niño regionally: in South Asia, flood-related PAD increased by 40.5% (95% CI 19.3% to 65.6%) for each boundary point increase in ONI (p = 0.002). India was found to be the country with the largest increase in flood-related PAD rates following an El Niño event, with the Philippines experiencing the largest increase following La Niña. Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)-analyses showed consistent results. These findings can be used to inform disaster preparedness strategies.