Evolutionary drivers of reproductive fitness in two endangered forest trees.

Population genetics theory predicts a relationship between fitness, genetic diversity (H0) and effective population size (Ne), which is often tested through heterozygosity-fitness correlations (HFCs). We tested whether population and individual fertility and heterozygosity are correlated in two endangered Mexican spruces (Picea martinezii and Picea mexicana) by combining genomic, demographic and reproductive data (seed development and germination traits). For both species, there was a positive correlation between population size and seed development traits, but not germination rate. Individual genome-wide heterozygosity and seed traits were only correlated in P. martinezii (general-effects HFC), and none of the candidate single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with individual fertility showed heterozygote advantage in any species (no local-effects HFC). We observed a single and recent (c. 30 thousand years ago (ka)) population decline for P. martinezii; the collapse of P. mexicana occurred in two phases separated by a long period of stability (c. 800 ka). Recruitment always contributed more to total population census than adult trees in P. mexicana, while this was only the case in the largest populations of P. martinezii. Equating fitness to either H0 or Ne, as traditionally proposed in conservation biology, might not always be adequate, as species-specific evolutionary factors can decouple the expected correlation between these parameters.

Assisted migration and the rare endemic plant species: the case of two endangered Mexican spruces.

Background: In the projected climate change scenarios, assisted migration might play an important role in the ex situ conservation of the threatened plant species, by translocate them to similar suitable habitats outside their native distributions. However, it is unclear if such habitats will be available for the Rare Endemic Plant Species (REPS), because of their very restricted habitats. The aims of this study were to perform a population size assessment for the REPS Picea martinezii Patterson and Picea mexicana Martínez, and to evaluate the potential species distributions and their possibilities for assisted migration inside México and worldwide. Methods: We performed demographic censuses, field surveys in search for new stands, and developed distribution models for Last Glacial Maximum (22,000 years ago), Middle Holocene (6,000 years ago), current (1961-1990) and future (2050 and 2070) periods, for the whole Mexican territory (considering climatic, soil, geologic and topographic variables) and for all global land areas (based only on climate). Results: Our censuses showed populations of 89,266 and 39,059 individuals for P. martinezii and P. mexicana, respectively, including known populations and new stands. Projections for México indicated somewhat larger suitable areas in the past, now restricted to the known populations and new stands, where they will disappear by 2050 in a pessimistic climatic scenario, and scarce marginal areas (p = 0.5-0.79) remaining only for P. martinezii by 2070. Worldwide projections (based only on climate variables) revealed few marginal areas in 2050 only in México for P. martinezii, and several large areas (p ≥ 0.5) for P. mexicana around the world (all outside México), especially on the Himalayas in India and the Chungyang mountains in Taiwan with highly suitable (p ≥ 0.8) climate habitats in current and future (2050) conditions. However, those suitable areas are currently inhabited by other endemic spruces: Picea smithiana (Wall.) Boiss and Picea morrisonicola Hayata, respectively. Conclusions: Assisted migration would only be an option for P. martinezii on scarce marginal sites in México, and the possibilities for P. mexicana would be continental and transcontinental translocations. This rises two possible issues for future ex situ conservation programs: the first is related to whether or not consider assisted migration to marginal sites which do not cover the main habitat requirements for the species; the second is related to which species (the local or the foreign) should be prioritized for conservation when suitable habitat is found elsewhere but is inhabited by other endemic species. This highlights the necessity to discuss new policies, guidelines and mechanisms of international cooperation to deal with the expected high species extinction rates, linked to projected climate change.