ABSTRACT
Objective: From January 23rd, 2020, lock-down measures were adopted in Wuhan, China to stop the spread of COVID-19. However, due to the approach of the Spring Festival and the nature of COVID-19, more than 6 million permanent and temporary residents of Wuhan (who were potential carriers or spreaders of the virus), left the city before the lock-down measures were implemented. This study aims to explore whether and how the population inflow from Wuhan city impacted residents' confidence in controlling COVID-19 outbreaks at the destination cities. Study design and setting: Based on questionnaire data and migration big data, a multiple regression model was developed to quantify the impact of the population inflow from Wuhan city on the sense of confidence of residents in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities. Scenarios were considered that varied residents' expected month for controlling COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities, residents' confidence in controlling COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities, and the overall indicators for the sense of confidence of residents in controlling COVID-19. A marginal effect analysis was also conducted to calculate the probability of change in residents' confidence in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak with per unit change in the population inflow from Wuhan city. Results: The impact of population inflow from Wuhan city on residents' expected month for controlling COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities was positive and significant at the 1% level, while that on residents' confidence in controlling COVID-19 at the destination cities was negative and significant at the 1% level. Robustness checks, which included modifying the sample range and replacing measurement indicators of the population inflow from Wuhan city, demonstrated these findings were robust and credible. When the population inflow from Wuhan city increased by one additional unit, the probabilities of the variables "February" and "March" decreased significantly by 0.1023 and 0.1602, respectively, while the probabilities of "April," "May," "June," "July," "before the end of 2020," and "unknown" significantly increased by 0.0470, 0.0856, 0.0333, 0.0080, 0.0046, and 0.0840, respectively. Similarly, when the population inflow from Wuhan city increased by one additional unit, the probability of the variable "extremely confident" decreased by 0.1973. Furthermore, the probabilities of the variables "confident," "neutral," and "unconfident" significantly increased by 0.1392, 0.0224, and 0.0320, respectively. Conclusion: The population inflow from Wuhan city played a negative role in the sense of confidence of residents in controlling COVID-19 in the destination cities. The higher the population inflow from Wuhan city, the longer the residents' expected month for controlling COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities became, and the weaker the residents' confidence in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Cities/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control , Disease Outbreaks , Humans , SARS-CoV-2ABSTRACT
Traffic-related pollutants have been reported to increase the morbidity of respiratory diseases. In order to apply management policies related to motor vehicles, studies of the floating population living in cities are important. The rate of metro rail transit system use by passengers residing in Seoul is about 54% of total public transportation use. Through the rate of metro use, the people-flow ratios in each administrative area were calculated. By applying a people-flow ratio based on the official census count, the floating population in 25 regions was calculated. The reduced level of deaths among the floating population in 14 regions having the roadside monitoring station was calculated as assuming a 20% reduction of mobile emission based on the policy. The hourly floating population size was calculated by applying the hourly population ratio to the regional population size as specified in the official census count. The number of people moving from 5 a.m. to next day 1 a.m. could not be precisely calculated when the population size was applied, but no issue was observed that would trigger a sizable shift in the rate of population change. The three patterns of increase, decrease, and no change of population in work hours were analyzed. When the concentration of particulate matter less than 10 µm in aerodynamic diameter was reduced by 20%, the number of excess deaths varied according to the difference of the floating population. The effective establishment of directions to manage the pollutants in cities should be carried out by considering the floating population. Although the number of people using the metro system is only an estimate, this disadvantage was supplemented by calculating inflow and outflow ratio of metro users per time in the total floating population in each region. Especially, 54% of metro usage in public transport causes high reliability in application.
ABSTRACT
Traffic-related pollutants have been reported to increase the morbidity of respiratory diseases. In order to apply management policies related to motor vehicles, studies of the floating population living in cities are important. The rate of metro rail transit system use by passengers residing in Seoul is about 54% of total public transportation use. Through the rate of metro use, the people-flow ratios in each administrative area were calculated. By applying a people-flow ratio based on the official census count, the floating population in 25 regions was calculated. The reduced level of deaths among the floating population in 14 regions having the roadside monitoring station was calculated as assuming a 20% reduction of mobile emission based on the policy. The hourly floating population size was calculated by applying the hourly population ratio to the regional population size as specified in the official census count. The number of people moving from 5 a.m. to next day 1 a.m. could not be precisely calculated when the population size was applied, but no issue was observed that would trigger a sizable shift in the rate of population change. The three patterns of increase, decrease, and no change of population in work hours were analyzed. When the concentration of particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter was reduced by 20%, the number of excess deaths varied according to the difference of the floating population. The effective establishment of directions to manage the pollutants in cities should be carried out by considering the floating population. Although the number of people using the metro system is only an estimate, this disadvantage was supplemented by calculating inflow and outflow ratio of metro users per time in the total floating population in each region. Especially, 54% of metro usage in public transport causes high reliability in application.
Subject(s)
Censuses , Korea , Motor Vehicles , Particulate Matter , Population Density , Seoul , TransportationABSTRACT
We investigated the epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial clustering of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB),and analyzed its social influence factors in immigration city.Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted on PTB cases data extracted from the National Disease Reporting System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention between 2013 and 2015.Kulldorff scan statistics was applied to community based and town-based incidence data by SaTScan 9.1.1.The results were visualized by ArcMap10.2.A total of 12 109 PTB cases were reported in Ningbo with a decreasing trend in incidence rate and an increasing trend in proportion of floating population from 2013 to 2015.The male to female ratio was 2.07 ∶ 1 (8 162/3 947).All age groups were affected by PTB,but the incidence in 15-34 years age group and 65+ years age group were higher.Patients aged between 15 and 54 years accounted for 73.95 ％ of all cases.Most cases were farmers,housekeepers or unemployed,migrants and workers.There were six temporal-spatial clusters,of which the most likely clusters were in downtown and its surrounding areas,and the second likely clusters were in industrial parks.Compared with non cluster areas,proportion of floating population (t =2.88,P=0.01) especially immigrants from other provinces (t=7.46,P =0.00),and population density (t=3.37,P=0.00) in cluster areas were higher,while per capita green area was lower (t =-2.39,P 0.03).The downtown and its surrounding areas,industrial parks could be the future PTB combating regions.High population density and immigrants are associated with PTB clustering.
ABSTRACT
We investigated the epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial clustering of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB),and analyzed its social influence factors in immigration city.Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted on PTB cases data extracted from the National Disease Reporting System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention between 2013 and 2015.Kulldorff scan statistics was applied to community based and town-based incidence data by SaTScan 9.1.1.The results were visualized by ArcMap10.2.A total of 12 109 PTB cases were reported in Ningbo with a decreasing trend in incidence rate and an increasing trend in proportion of floating population from 2013 to 2015.The male to female ratio was 2.07 ∶ 1 (8 162/3 947).All age groups were affected by PTB,but the incidence in 15-34 years age group and 65+ years age group were higher.Patients aged between 15 and 54 years accounted for 73.95 ％ of all cases.Most cases were farmers,housekeepers or unemployed,migrants and workers.There were six temporal-spatial clusters,of which the most likely clusters were in downtown and its surrounding areas,and the second likely clusters were in industrial parks.Compared with non cluster areas,proportion of floating population (t =2.88,P=0.01) especially immigrants from other provinces (t=7.46,P =0.00),and population density (t=3.37,P=0.00) in cluster areas were higher,while per capita green area was lower (t =-2.39,P 0.03).The downtown and its surrounding areas,industrial parks could be the future PTB combating regions.High population density and immigrants are associated with PTB clustering.
