Predictive value of dynamic arterial elastance for vasopressor withdrawal: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Dynamic arterial elastance (Eadyn) has been investigated for its ability to predict hypotension during the weaning of vasopressors. Our study focused on assessing Eadyn's performance in the context of critically ill adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit, regardless of diagnosis. MAIN BODY: Our study was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reported Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis checklist. The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42023421462) on May 26, 2023. We included prospective observational studies from the MEDLINE and Embase databases through May 2023. Five studies involving 183 patients were included in the quantitative analysis. We extracted data related to patient clinical characteristics, and information about Eadyn measurement methods, results, and norepinephrine dose. Most patients (76%) were diagnosed with septic shock, while the remaining patients required norepinephrine for other reasons. The average pressure responsiveness rate was 36.20%. The synthesized results yielded an area under the curve of 0.85, with a sensitivity of 0.87 (95% CI 0.74-0.93), specificity of 0.76 (95% CI 0.68-0.83), and diagnostic odds ratio of 19.07 (95% CI 8.47-42.92). Subgroup analyses indicated no variations in the Eadyn based on norepinephrine dosage, the Eadyn measurement device, or the Eadyn diagnostic cutoff to predict cessation of vasopressor support. CONCLUSIONS: Eadyn, evaluated through subgroup analyses, demonstrated good predictive ability for the discontinuation of vasopressor support in critically ill patients.

Models for predicting the risk of illness in leprosy contacts in Brazil: Leprosy prediction models in Brazilian contacts.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to develop and validate predictive models that assess the risk of leprosy development among contacts, contributing to an enhanced understanding of disease occurrence in this population. METHODS: A cohort of 600 contacts of people with leprosy treated at the National Reference Center for Leprosy and Health Dermatology at the Federal University of Uberlândia (CREDESH/HC-UFU) was followed up between 2002 and 2022. The database was divided into two parts: two-third to construct the disease risk score and one-third to validate this score. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to construct the disease score. RESULTS: Of the four models constructed, model 3, which included the variables anti-phenolic glycolipid I immunoglobulin M positive, absence of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine scar and age ≥60 years, was considered the best for identifying a higher risk of illness, with a specificity of 89.2%, a positive predictive value of 60% and an accuracy of 78%. CONCLUSIONS: Risk prediction models can contribute to the management of leprosy contacts and the systematisation of contact surveillance protocols.

Radiological Cutoff Values for Diagnosis of Lymph Node Metastasis in Colorectal Cancer With Multilevel Analysis.

Background/Aim: A cutoff value for lymph node diameter in colorectal cancer lymph node metastases has not been established. This prospective study aimed to investigate the direct association between swollen lymph nodes identified on preoperative computed tomography (CT) and pathological findings and proposed a cutoff value. Patients and Methods: We enrolled patients scheduled to undergo curative surgery with lymph node dissection for colorectal adenocarcinoma who underwent preoperative contrast-enhanced CT and had swollen lymph nodes ≥7 mm in diameter. Two gastrointestinal surgeons intraoperatively identified the target lymph nodes to assess the association between lymph node diameter and pathological findings. The diagnostic performance for lymph node metastasis was determined using multi-level logistic modelling. Results: A total of 109 patients were enrolled, and 225 swollen lymph nodes were pathologically evaluated. Using a cutoff value of ≥9 mm for the short diameter, the positive and negative predictive values, sensitivity, and specificity were 100.0% (99.6%-100.0%), 99.9% (99.1%-100.0%), 62.0% (45.6%-76.0%), and 84.9% (67.0%-94.0%), respectively. Conclusion: The cutoff value for improving the positive predictive value for the preoperative lymph node metastasis diagnosis in colorectal cancer patients should be at least 9 mm in diameter.

Is Streptococcus pyogenes a pathogen or passenger in uncomplicated acute sore throat? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The objective was to estimate the probability that finding a Streptococcus pyogenes (Group A Streptococcus) in a throat swab in a patient with a sore throat reflects the aetiology. We also investigated to what extent this is influenced by age, carrier rates of S. pyogenes and climate zone. METHODS: We conducted a comprehensive search of Medline and Scopus up until October 2023 for case-control studies reporting the prevalence of S. pyogenes in patients with a sore throat and healthy controls. We only included studies with separate data for children and adults. We used the positive and negative etiologic predictive values (P-EPV and N-EPV) to estimate the probability of a link between a sore throat and a finding of S. pyogenes. RESULTS: We included 15 studies in our meta-analysis. The overall P-EPV for children and adults were 63% (49-74%) and 92% (87-95%), respectively. The P-EPV rose to 83% (64-93%) for children and 94% (90-97%) for adults when only patients with 3-4 Centor criteria were included. The overall N-EPV was 97% (96-98%) for children and 96% (95-97%) for adults. CONCLUSION: Detecting S. pyogenes in adult patients with an uncomplicated acute sore throat is useful to rule in S. pyogenes as the likely aetiologic agent. The P-EPV significantly increased for children when those with 3-4 Centor criteria were selected. A negative throat swab is always useful for both children and adults to rule out S. pyogenes as the cause of sore throat.

Automated Prediction of Proximal Middle Cerebral Artery Occlusions in Noncontrast Brain Computed Tomography.

BACKGROUND: Early identification of large vessel occlusion (LVO) in patients with ischemic stroke is crucial for timely interventions. We propose a machine learning-based algorithm (JLK-CTL) that uses handcrafted features from noncontrast computed tomography to predict LVO. METHODS: We included patients with ischemic stroke who underwent concurrent noncontrast computed tomography and computed tomography angiography in seven hospitals. Patients from 5 of these hospitals, admitted between May 2011 and March 2015, were randomly divided into training and internal validation (9:1 ratio). Those from the remaining 2 hospitals, admitted between March 2021 and September 2021, were designated for external validation. From each noncontrast computed tomography scan, we extracted differences in volume, tissue density, and Hounsfield unit distribution between bihemispheric regions (striatocapsular, insula, M1-M3, and M4-M6, modified from the Alberta Stroke Program Early Computed Tomography Score). A deep learning algorithm was used to incorporate clot signs as an additional feature. Machine learning models, including ExtraTrees, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, support vector machine, and multilayer perceptron, as well as a deep learning model, were trained and evaluated. Additionally, we assessed the models' performance after incorporating the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores as an additional feature. RESULTS: Among 2919 patients, 83 were excluded. Across the training (n=2463), internal validation (n=275), and external validation (n=95) datasets, the mean ages were 68.5±12.4, 67.6±13.8, and 67.9±13.6 years, respectively. The proportions of men were 57%, 53%, and 59%, with LVO prevalences of 17.0%, 16.4%, and 26.3%, respectively. In the external validation, the ExtraTrees model achieved a robust area under the curve of 0.888 (95% CI, 0.850-0.925), with a sensitivity of 80.1% (95% CI, 72.0-88.1) and a specificity of 88.6% (95% CI, 84.7-92.5). Adding the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score to the ExtraTrees model increased sensitivity (from 80.1% to 92.1%) while maintaining specificity. CONCLUSIONS: Our algorithm provides reliable predictions of LVO using noncontrast computed tomography. By enabling early LVO identification, our algorithm has the potential to expedite the stroke workflow.

Atrial Fibrillation Screening During Routine Automated Office, Home, and Ambulatory Blood Pressure Measurement: A Diagnostic Test Accuracy Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is often asymptomatic and undiagnosed. As AF and hypertension often coexist, opportunistic AF detection during routine automated blood pressure (BP) measurement appears to be an attractive screening method. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted to identify studies assessing the diagnostic test accuracy of office, home, or 24-hour ambulatory BP measuring devices with AF detection algorithms versus reference electrocardiography. Analyses were performed per participant (AF status based on several BP readings; most office/home devices) or per reading (AF status based on individual readings; all ambulatory devices). A meta-analysis stratified by device type (office/home/ambulatory) was conducted to calculate pooled measures of diagnostic accuracy. Sensitivity/meta-regression analyses were also performed. RESULTS: Among 3096 records initially retrieved, 23 diagnostic test accuracy studies were included. Data derived from 11 093 individuals (weighted age 69 years, males 56%, hypertensives 79%, diabetics 24%, and AF prevalence 17%) indicated a pooled sensitivity 0.97 (95% CI, 0.92-0.99), specificity 0.93 (95% CI, 0.90-0.95), and accuracy 0.93 (95% CI, 0.89-0.95), with generally consistent results using office, home, or ambulatory BP devices (slightly lower specificity with the latter). The positive and negative predictive values were 0.70 (95% CI, 0.60-0.80) and 0.99 (95% CI, 0.98-1.00), respectively. Sensitivity analyses indicated lower specificity in studies implementing reading versus participant analyses. Most studies presented a low risk of bias and minor applicability concerns. CONCLUSIONS: There is considerable and consistent evidence suggesting high diagnostic accuracy of AF detection algorithms implemented in automated BP monitors during routine BP measurements in and out of the office. AF diagnosis requires verification (electrocardiography) before treatment is administered.

Association between Initial Fibrinogen Levels and the Need for Massive Transfusion in Emergency Department Patients with Primary Postpartum Hemorrhage: A Retrospective Study from a Single Center in Korea.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to evaluate the association between initial fibrinogen levels and massive transfusion (MT) in emergency department (ED) patients with primary postpartum hemorrhage (PPH). METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted in the ED of a university-affiliated, tertiary referral center from January 2004 to August 2023. Patients were divided into two groups: the MT group, which included those who received a transfusion of 10 or more units of packed red blood cells within the first 24 h, and the Non-MT group. RESULTS: Out of the 364 patients included in the study, 97 (26.6%) required MT. Fibrinogen, shock index, and lactate were independently associated with MT (odds ratio [OR] 0.987; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.983-0.991; p < 0.001, OR 7.277; 95% CI 1.856-28.535; p = 0.004, and OR 1.261; 95% CI 1.021-1.557; p = 0.031, respectively). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for fibrinogen, shock index, and lactate in predicting MT was 0.871 (95% CI 0.832-0.904; p < 0.001), 0.821 (95% CI 0.778-0.859; p < 0.001), and 0.784 (95% CI 0.738-0.825; p < 0.001), respectively. When the cutoff value of fibrinogen was 400 mg/dL, both the sensitivity and negative predictive values for predicting MT were 100.0%. When the cutoff value of fibrinogen was 100 mg/dL, the specificity and positive predictive values were 91.8% and 70.7%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The initial fibrinogen levels were independently associated with the need for MT in ED patients with primary PPH.

Validity of Prescription-Defined and Hospital-Diagnosed Hypertension Compared with Self-Reported Hypertension in Denmark.

Purpose: Hypertension is an important risk factor in cardio-epidemiological research, but data quality remains a concern. We validated different registry-based definitions of hypertension. Patients and Methods: The cohort included all first-time responders of the Danish National Health Surveys (2010, 2013, or 2017). Prescription-defined hypertension was defined as ≥1 or ≥2 filled prescriptions of antihypertensive specific drugs in ≥1 or ≥2 different antihypertensive drug classes within 90, 180, or 365 days before survey response. Hospital-diagnosed hypertension was defined from hypertension diagnoses within five years before the survey response. Considering self-reported hypertension as the reference, we calculated the positive predictive value (PPV), the negative predictive value (NVP), the sensitivity, and the specificity of prescription-defined and hospital-diagnosed hypertension. Results: Among 442,490 survey responders, 127,247 (29%) had self-reported hypertension. For prescription-defined hypertension with 365-day lookback, the PPV was highest for ≥2 prescriptions in ≥2 drug classes (94%) and lowest for ≥1 prescription in ≥1 drug class (85%). The NPV was highest for ≥1 prescription in ≥2 drug classes (94%) and lowest for ≥1 prescription in ≥2 drug classes (80%). The sensitivity was highest for ≥1 prescription in ≥1 drug class (79%) and lowest for ≥2 prescriptions in ≥2 drug classes (30%). The specificity was ≥94% for all algorithms. The PPV and specificity did not change noteworthy with length of lookback period, whereas the NPV and the sensitivity generally were higher for longer lookback. The algorithm ≥1 prescription in ≥2 drug classes with 365-day lookback was among the best balanced across all measures of validity (PPV=88%, NPV=94%, sensitivity=75%, specificity=96%). For hospital-diagnosed hypertension, the PPV was 90%, the NPV was 76%, the sensitivity was 22%, and the specificity was 99%. Conclusion: Compared with self-reported hypertension, the algorithms for prescription-defined and hospital-diagnosed hypertension had high predictive values and specificity, but low sensitivity.

Monitorización de la glucemia en el paciente crítico adulto: tipo de muestra y método de análisis. Revisión sistemática y metanálisis / Blood glucose monitoring in critically ill adult patients: Type of sample and method of analysis. Systematic review and meta-analysis

IntroducciónLa guía clínica para el manejo de la sepsis recomienda usar muestras de sangre arterial para el control glucémico. Un estudio multicéntrico en 86 unidades de cuidados intensivos españolas reveló que el 85,4% de estas utilizaban punción capilar.ObjetivoAnalizar la fiabilidad de la glucemia comparando diferentes muestras sanguíneas (arterial, venosa, capilar) e instrumentos (glucómetros, gasómetros, laboratorio central). Secundariamente, estimar el efecto de variables confusoras y el rendimiento de los instrumentos de medición determinados por las diferentes normas de calidad.MetodologíaRevisión sistemática y metanálisis con búsqueda en las bases de datos PubMed, CINAHL y Embase en septiembre-2021 y septiembre-2022, sin límites temporales ni idiomáticos. Fuentes de literatura gris: DART-Europe, OpenGrey y Google Académico. Resultados resumidos mediante síntesis cualitativa (descripción de resultados, características de los estudios) y cuantitativa (metanálisis para evaluar la diferencia de medias estandarizadas). Calidad metodológica de artículos evaluada con Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2. Protocolo: https://osf.io/ DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/T8KYP.ResultadosSe incluyeron un total de 32 artículos y 5.451 pacientes. No se obtuvieron discrepancias entre muestras arteriales con glucómetro vs. laboratorio (sesgo [IC95%]: 0,01 [−0,12 a 0,14] mg/dL). En cambio, muestras arteriales con gasómetro sí sobreestimaron de forma significativa (sesgo [IC95%]: 0,12 [0,01 a 0,24] mg/dL). La misma tendencia presentan capilares con glucómetro, aunque no de forma significativa (sesgo [IC95%]: 0,07 [−0,02 a 0,15] mg/dL). Hay discrepancia entre los estudios sobre el efecto del hematocrito y el equilibrio ácido-base. El mayor consenso se da en la poca concordancia del glucómetro con muestras capilares vs. laboratorio en presencia de shock y soporte vasopresor, situación de fallo renal o durante el tratamiento con vitamina C.Conclusiones... (AU)

IntroductionThe clinical guideline for the management of sepsis recommends using arterial blood samples for glycaemic control. A multicentre study in 86 Spanish intensive care units revealed that 85.4% of these used capillary puncture.ObjectiveTo analyse the reliability of glycaemia by comparing different blood samples (arterial, venous, capillary) and instruments (glucometers, gasometers, central laboratory). Secondarily, to estimate the effect of confounding variables and the performance of measuring instruments as determined by different quality standards.MethodologySystematic review and meta-analysis with search in PubMed, CINAHL and Embase databases in September-2021 and September-2022, with no time or language limits. Grey literature sources: DART-Europe, OpenGrey and Google Scholar. Results summarised by qualitative (description of results, study characteristics) and quantitative (meta-analysis to assess standardised mean difference) synthesis. Methodological quality of articles assessed with Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2. Protocol: https://osf.io/ DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/T8KYP.ResultsA total of 32 articles and 5451 patients were included. No discrepancies were obtained between arterial glucometer vs. laboratory samples (bias [95%CI]: 0.01 [−0.12 to 0.14] mg/dL). In contrast, arterial samples with a gasometer did significantly overestimate (bias [95%CI]: 0.12 [0.01 to 0.24] mg/dL). The same trend is seen in capillaries with a glucometer, although not significantly (bias [95%CI]: 0.07 [−0.02 to 0.15] mg/dL). There is discrepancy between studies on the effect of haematocrit and acid-base balance. The greatest consensus is on the poor agreement of glucometer with capillary vs. laboratory samples in the presence of shock and vasopressor support, renal failure or during vitamin C treatment.Conclusions... (AU)

Monitorización de la glucemia en el paciente crítico adulto: tipo de muestra y método de análisis. Revisión sistemática y metanálisis / Blood glucose monitoring in critically ill adult patients: Type of sample and method of analysis. Systematic review and meta-analysis

IntroducciónLa guía clínica para el manejo de la sepsis recomienda usar muestras de sangre arterial para el control glucémico. Un estudio multicéntrico en 86 unidades de cuidados intensivos españolas reveló que el 85,4% de estas utilizaban punción capilar.ObjetivoAnalizar la fiabilidad de la glucemia comparando diferentes muestras sanguíneas (arterial, venosa, capilar) e instrumentos (glucómetros, gasómetros, laboratorio central). Secundariamente, estimar el efecto de variables confusoras y el rendimiento de los instrumentos de medición determinados por las diferentes normas de calidad.MetodologíaRevisión sistemática y metanálisis con búsqueda en las bases de datos PubMed, CINAHL y Embase en septiembre-2021 y septiembre-2022, sin límites temporales ni idiomáticos. Fuentes de literatura gris: DART-Europe, OpenGrey y Google Académico. Resultados resumidos mediante síntesis cualitativa (descripción de resultados, características de los estudios) y cuantitativa (metanálisis para evaluar la diferencia de medias estandarizadas). Calidad metodológica de artículos evaluada con Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2. Protocolo: https://osf.io/ DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/T8KYP.ResultadosSe incluyeron un total de 32 artículos y 5.451 pacientes. No se obtuvieron discrepancias entre muestras arteriales con glucómetro vs. laboratorio (sesgo [IC95%]: 0,01 [−0,12 a 0,14] mg/dL). En cambio, muestras arteriales con gasómetro sí sobreestimaron de forma significativa (sesgo [IC95%]: 0,12 [0,01 a 0,24] mg/dL). La misma tendencia presentan capilares con glucómetro, aunque no de forma significativa (sesgo [IC95%]: 0,07 [−0,02 a 0,15] mg/dL). Hay discrepancia entre los estudios sobre el efecto del hematocrito y el equilibrio ácido-base. El mayor consenso se da en la poca concordancia del glucómetro con muestras capilares vs. laboratorio en presencia de shock y soporte vasopresor, situación de fallo renal o durante el tratamiento con vitamina C.Conclusiones... (AU)

IntroductionThe clinical guideline for the management of sepsis recommends using arterial blood samples for glycaemic control. A multicentre study in 86 Spanish intensive care units revealed that 85.4% of these used capillary puncture.ObjectiveTo analyse the reliability of glycaemia by comparing different blood samples (arterial, venous, capillary) and instruments (glucometers, gasometers, central laboratory). Secondarily, to estimate the effect of confounding variables and the performance of measuring instruments as determined by different quality standards.MethodologySystematic review and meta-analysis with search in PubMed, CINAHL and Embase databases in September-2021 and September-2022, with no time or language limits. Grey literature sources: DART-Europe, OpenGrey and Google Scholar. Results summarised by qualitative (description of results, study characteristics) and quantitative (meta-analysis to assess standardised mean difference) synthesis. Methodological quality of articles assessed with Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2. Protocol: https://osf.io/ DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/T8KYP.ResultsA total of 32 articles and 5451 patients were included. No discrepancies were obtained between arterial glucometer vs. laboratory samples (bias [95%CI]: 0.01 [−0.12 to 0.14] mg/dL). In contrast, arterial samples with a gasometer did significantly overestimate (bias [95%CI]: 0.12 [0.01 to 0.24] mg/dL). The same trend is seen in capillaries with a glucometer, although not significantly (bias [95%CI]: 0.07 [−0.02 to 0.15] mg/dL). There is discrepancy between studies on the effect of haematocrit and acid-base balance. The greatest consensus is on the poor agreement of glucometer with capillary vs. laboratory samples in the presence of shock and vasopressor support, renal failure or during vitamin C treatment.Conclusions... (AU)

Test characteristics for combining non-invasive liver fibrosis staging modalities in individuals with Hepatitis C virus.

Non-invasive methods have largely replaced biopsy to identify advanced fibrosis in hepatitis C virus (HCV). Guidelines vary regarding testing strategy to balance accuracy, costs and loss to follow-up. Although individual test characteristics are well-described, data comparing the accuracy of using two tests together are limited. We calculated combined test characteristics to determine the utility of combined strategies. This study synthesizes empirical data from fibrosis staging trials and the literature to estimate test characteristics for Fibrosis-4 (FIB4), APRI or a commercial serum panel (FibroSure®), followed by transient elastography (TE) or FibroSure®. We simulated two testing strategies: (1) second test only for those with intermediate first test results (staged approach), and (2) second test for all. We summarized empiric data with multinomial distributions and used this to estimate test characteristics of each strategy on a simulated population of 10,000 individuals with 4.2% cirrhosis prevalence. Negative predictive value (NPV) for cirrhosis from a single test ranged from 98.2% (95% CB 97.6-98.8%) for FIB-4 to 99.4% (95% CB 99.0-99.8%) for TE. Using a staged approach with TE second, sensitivity for cirrhosis rose to 93.3-96.9%, NPV to 99.7-99.8%, while PPV dropped to <32%. Using TE as a second test for all minimally changed estimated test characteristics compared with the staged approach. Combining two non-invasive fibrosis tests barely improves NPV and decreases or does not change PPV compared with a single test, challenging the utility of serial testing modalities. These calculated combined test characteristics can inform best methods to identify advanced fibrosis in various populations.

Validation of human immunodeficiency virus diagnosis codes among women enrollees of a U.S. health plan.

BACKGROUND: Efficiently identifying patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) using administrative health care data (e.g., claims) can facilitate research on their quality of care and health outcomes. No prior study has validated the use of only ICD-10-CM HIV diagnosis codes to identify patients with HIV. METHODS: We validated HIV diagnosis codes among women enrolled in a large U.S. integrated health care system during 2010-2020. We examined HIV diagnosis code-based algorithms that varied by type, frequency, and timing of the codes in patients' claims data. We calculated the positive predictive values (PPVs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the algorithms using a medical record-confirmed diagnosis of HIV as the gold standard. RESULTS: A total of 272 women with ≥ 1 HIV diagnosis code in the administrative claims data were identified and medical records were reviewed for all 272 women. The PPV of an algorithm classifying women as having HIV as of the first HIV diagnosis code during the observation period was 80.5% (95% CI: 75.4-84.8%), and it was 93.9% (95% CI: 90.0-96.3%) as of the second. Little additional increase in PPV was observed when a third code was required. The PPV of an algorithm based on ICD-10-CM-era codes was similar to one based on ICD-9-CM-era codes. CONCLUSION: If the accuracy measure of greatest interest is PPV, our findings suggest that use of ≥ 2 HIV diagnosis codes to identify patients with HIV may perform well. However, health care coding practices may vary across settings, which may impact generalizability of our results.

Concordance and generalization of an AI algorithm with real-world clinical data in the pre-omicron and omicron era.

All viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, continue to evolve, which can lead to new variants. The objective of this study is to assess the agreement between real-world clinical data and an algorithm that utilizes laboratory markers and age to predict the progression of disease severity in COVID-19 patients during the pre-Omicron and Omicron variant periods. The study evaluated the performance of a deep learning (DL) algorithm in predicting disease severity scores for COVID-19 patients using data from the USA, Spain, and Turkey (Ankara City Hospital (ACH) data set). The algorithm was developed and validated using pre-Omicron era data and was tested on both pre-Omicron and Omicron-era data. The predictions were compared to the actual clinical outcomes using a multidisciplinary approach. The concordance index values for all datasets ranged from 0.71 to 0.81. In the ACH cohort, a negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.78 or higher was observed for severe patients in both the pre-Omicron and Omicron eras, which is consistent with the algorithm's performance in the development cohort.

Variáveis Clínicas e Laboratoriais na Admissão Hospitalar são Preditores de Fibrilação Atrial Nova em Pacientes Internados com Pneumonia por COVID-19 / Clinical and Laboratory Data Up on Hospital Admission are Predictors of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in Patients Hospitalized Due to COVID-19 Pneumonia

Resumo Fundamento Fibrilação atrial nova (FAN) ocorre em pacientes internados por COVID-19. Há controvérsias quanto ao valor preditivo de dados clínicos e laboratoriais à admissão hospitalar para ocorrência de FAN. Objetivos Analisar, à admissão hospitalar, variáveis com potencial preditivo para ocorrência de FAN em pacientes com pneumonia por COVID-19. Método Estudo observacional, retrospectivo, caso-controle. Foram avaliados prontuários eletrônicos de pacientes consecutivos ≥ 60 anos, hospitalizados com pneumonia por COVID-19 entre 1º de março e 15 de julho de 2020. Comparações feitas pelos testes `t' de Student ou qui-quadrado. Foi empregado modelo de risco proporcional de Cox para identificação de preditores de FAN. Considerou-se o valor de p < 0,05 como estatisticamente significativo. Resultados Entre 667 pacientes internados por COVID-19, 201 (30,1%) foram incluídos. FAN foi documentada em 29 pacientes (14,4%) (grupo 1). Grupo 2 foi composto por 162 pacientes que não apresentaram FAN. Dez pacientes excluídos por estarem em FA na admissão hospitalar. Houve diferenças entre os grupos 1 e 2, respectivamente, no tempo de permanência em UTI (11,1±10,5 dias vs. 4,9±7,5 dias; p=0,004), necessidade de ventilação invasiva (82,9% e 32,7%; p<0,001) e mortalidade hospitalar (75,9% vs. 32,1%; p<0,001). No modelo de Cox, idade > 71 anos (hazard ratio [HR]=6,8; p<0,001), leucometria ≤ 7.720 cels.μL-1 (HR=6,6; p<0,001), natremia ≤ 137 mEq.L-1 (HR=5,0; p=0,001), escore SAPS3 > 55 (HR=5,6; p=0,002) e desorientação (HR=2,5; p=0,04) foram preditores independentes de FAN. Conclusões FAN é uma arritmia comum em idosos hospitalizados com pneumonia por COVID-19. Parâmetros clínicos e laboratoriais avaliados na admissão são preditores de FAN durante internação.

Abstract Background New-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) occurs in patients hospitalized due to COVID-19. It is still unknown whether clinical and laboratory data assessed upon hospital admission have predictive value for NOAF. Objectives To analyze, upon hospital admission, variables with predictive potential for the occurrence of NOAF in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Methods Observational, retrospective, case-control study. Electronic medical reports of consecutive patients, 60 years of age or older, hospitalized due to COVID-19 pneumonia between March 1st and July 15th, 2020, were reviewed. Non-paired Student or chi-squared tests compared variables. A Cox proportional hazard model was employed to identify independent predictors of NOAF. P value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results Among 667 patients hospitalized due to COVID-19, 201 (30.1%) fulfilled the inclusion criteria. NOAF was documented in 29 patients (14.4%), composing group 1. Group 2 was composed of 162 patients without NOAF. Ten patients were excluded due to the AF rhythm upon hospital admission. In groups 1 and 2, there were differences in overall in-hospital survival rate (24.1 % vs. 67.9%; p<0.001), length of stay in ICU (11.1 ± 10.5 days vs. 4.9 ± 7.5 days; p=0.004) and need for mechanical ventilation rate (82.9% vs. 32.7%; p<0.001). In the Cox model, age > 71 y/o (HR=6.8; p<0.001), total leukocyte count ≤ 7,720 cels.μL-¹ (HR=6.6; p<0.001), serum [Na+] ≤ 137 mEq.L-¹ (HR=5.0; p=0.001), SAPS3 score > 55 (HR=5.6; p=0.002), and disorientation (HR=2.5; p=0.04) on admission were independent predictors of NOAF. Conclusion NOAF is a common arrhythmia in elderly hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Clinical and laboratory parameters evaluated on admission have a predictive value for the occurrence of NOAF during hospitalization.

Diagnostic accuracy of a simple qualitative ultrasound assessment for the diagnosis of high-risk gastric contents in the parturient. A prospective observational cohort study.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Interpretation of gastric ultrasound relies on the use of a clinical algorithm that combines qualitative analysis of the gastric antrum contents with the calculation of the volume of fluid contents. This reference method may be difficult to apply in the parturient. We therefore aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of a simple qualitative assessment in the supine position for the diagnosis of high-risk gastric contents in the parturient. We also assessed the diagnostic accuracy of a composite scale and another clinical algorithm based on a mathematical model different to that used in the reference method. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. SETTING: University hospital, Lyon, France. PATIENTS: Adult women admitted to the delivery room. INTERVENTIONS: Qualitative and quantitative gastric ultrasound examination within the first hour following admission. MEASUREMENTS: With respect to the reference method, the diagnostic accuracy of a simple qualitative assessment for the diagnosis of high-risk gastric contents was assessed. The diagnostic accuracy of a composite scale and another clinical algorithm, and the agreement between each approach were also assessed. MAIN RESULTS: A total of 235 parturients were included and analyzed. The simple qualitative assessment led to conclusive ultrasound assessment in 233 (99%) women, while the reference method led to conclusive assessment in 213 (91%) women (P < 0.05). The sensitivity and the specificity of the simple qualitative assessment were 97% (95%CI: 93 to 99%) and 96% (95%CI: 90 to 99%), respectively. These were not significantly different from those of the composite scale and the clinical algorithm. The four approaches showed almost perfect agreement with each other. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that simple qualitative assessment may be useful in clinical practice to help the anesthesiologist in the assessment of gastric contents status and risk of aspiration.

Evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of a screening tool for low physical activity in independently ambulating adults with knee osteoarthritis: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA) can benefit from resistance training exercises, range of motion and flexibility maintenance, and low-load aerobic exercises, as per the relevant clinical guidelines. However, certain patients might be unable to progress to higher physical levels despite such physical therapy programs. This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of a screening tool for determining physical activity levels in individuals with OA undergoing standard physical therapy regularly, using likelihood ratios and predictive values. METHOD: This prospective observational study included 135 patients undergoing standard physical therapy for OA from six medical facilities. The primary outcome was low physical activity or moderate to high physical activity levels based on 1-month Self-Rating Frenchay activities index scores. Backward elimination was used to perform binomial logistic regression analysis after identifying the independent variables in a univariate logistic regression analysis. Among the independent variables adopted in the logistic regression model, receiver operating characteristic analysis using Youden's index was performed for quantitative variables, which were converted to binary values at the cut-off points. Subsequently, the clinical prediction rule (CPR) was derived. RESULTS: According to the binomial logistic regression analysis, age, knee flexion muscle strength, and visual analog scale (VAS) were risk factors for low physical activity, and the CPR was derived from these variables. The pre-test probability of the low physical activity group was 37.0% (50 out of 135 participants). For a total CPR score of three points (one point for each item: age ≤69 years, knee flexion muscle strength ≤0.36 Nm/kg, and VAS ≥33 mm), the positive likelihood ratio was 13.60 and the post-test probability increased to 88.9%. DISCUSSION: The CPR identified patients who might not benefit from the standard physical therapy program. This screening tool could improve patient management, allowing for more tailored approaches in physical therapy programs.

Predicting Acoustic Hearing Preservation Following Cochlear Implant Surgery Using Machine Learning.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to train and test supervised machine-learning classifiers to predict acoustic hearing preservation after CI using preoperative clinical data. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective predictive modeling study of prospectively collected single-institution CI dataset. METHODS: One hundred and seventy-five patients from a REDCap database including 761 patients >18 years who underwent CI and had audiometric testing preoperatively and one month after surgery were included. The primary outcome variable was the lowest quartile change in acoustic hearing at one month after CI using various formulae (standard pure tone average, SPTA; low-frequency PTA, LFPTA). Analysis involved applying multivariate logistic regression to detect statistical associations and training and testing supervised learning classifiers. Classifier performance was assessed with numerous metrics including area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC). RESULTS: Lowest quartile change (indicating hearing preservation) in SPTA was positively associated with a history of meningitis, preoperative LFPTA, and preoperative SPTA. Lowest quartile change in SPTA was negatively associated with sudden hearing loss, noise exposure, aural fullness, and abnormal anatomy. Lowest quartile change in LFPTA was positively associated with preoperative LFPTA. Lowest quartile change in LFPTA was negatively associated with tobacco use. Random forest demonstrated the highest mean classification performance on the validation dataset when predicting each of the outcome variables. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning demonstrated utility for predicting preservation of residual acoustic hearing in patients undergoing CI surgery, and the detected associations facilitated the interpretation of our machine-learning models. The models and statistical associations together may be used to facilitate improvements in shared clinical decision-making and patient outcomes. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 3 Laryngoscope, 134:926-936, 2024.

Predictive Value of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Nasal Swab PCR Assay for MRSA Infection in Critically Ill Pediatric Patients.

BACKGROUND: Critically ill pediatric patients are frequently initiated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) active antibiotics during infection evaluation even though MRSA infections are rare in many patient populations. The MRSA nasal swab polymerase chain reaction assay (MRSA-NS-PCR) is a test that has been shown to have a high negative predictive value (NPV) for MRSA infection in adults. This study evaluated the diagnostic test characteristics of the MRSA-NS-PCR in predicting the presence of MRSA infection in critically ill pediatric patients. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study was performed in a 44-bed pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) between 2013 and 2017. 3860 pediatric patients (54% male, median age 4 years [IQR 1-11 years]) admitted to the PICU who met pediatric systemic inflammatory response syndrome (pSIRS) criteria, were screened with a MRSA-NS-PCR, and had cultures obtained within seven days of MRSA-NS-PCR collection were included. Predictive values and post-test probabilities of the MRSA-NS-PCR for MRSA infection were calculated. RESULTS: MRSA-NS-PCR was positive in 8.6% of patients. MRSA infection was identified in 40 patients, equaling an incidence rate of 2 per 1000 patient days. The MRSA-NS-PCR demonstrated a positive predictive value (PPV) of 9.7%, a NPV of 99.8%, and a post-test probability for a negative test of 0.2% for MRSA infection. CONCLUSIONS: The MRSA-NS-PCR has a poor PPV but a high NPV for MRSA infection in PICU patients when the incidence of MRSA infection is low. Creation of protocols to guide antimicrobial selection based on MRSA-NS-PCR results may lead to improved antimicrobial stewardship and significant risk reduction.