Mortality prediction model from combined serial lactate, procalcitonin and calprotectin levels in critically ill patients with sepsis: A retrospective study according to Sepsis-3 definition.

OBJECTIVE: 1) To evaluate the ability of baseline and on 24 h serum calprotectin, in comparison to canonical biomarkers (lactate and procalcitonin), for prognosis of 28-day mortality in critically ill septic patients; and 2) To develop a predictive model combining the three biomarkers. DESIGN: A single-center, retrospective study. SETTING: Intensive Care Unit of a university hospital. PATIENTS OR PARTICIPANTS: One hundred and seventy three septic pacientes were included. INTERVENTIONS: Measurement of baseline lactate, procalcitonin and calprotectin level and procalcitonin and calprotectin levels on 24 h. MAIN VARIABLES OF INTEREST: Demographics and comorbidities, SOFA score on ICU admission, baseline lactate, procalcitonin and calprotectin on admission and on 24 h and 28-day mortality. RESULTS: 1) On ICU admission, lactate was the only biomarker achieving a significant accuracy (AUC: 0.698); 2) On 24 h, no differences were found on procalcitonin and calprotectin levels. Procalcitonin and calprotectin clearances were significantly lower in non-survivors and both achieved a moderate performance (AUCs: 0.668 and 0.664, respectively); 3) A biomarker based-model achieved a significant accuracy (AUC: 0.766), trending to increase (AUC: 0.829) to SOFA score alone; y 4) Baseline lactate levels and procalcitonin and calprotectin clearance were independent predictors for the outcome. CONCLUSIONS: 1) Baseline and on 24 h calprotectina and procalcitonin levels lacked ability in predicting 28-day mortality; 2) Accuracy of clearance of both biomarkers was moderate; and 3) Combination of SOFA score and the predictive biomarker based-model showed a high prognostic accuracy.

Diagnostic accuracy of procalcitonin for bacterial infection in the Emergency Department: a systematic review.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE: The care of patients with a suspected infectious process in hospital emergency departments (ED) accounts for 15%-35% of all daily care in these healthcare areas in Spain and Latin America. The early and adequate administration of antibiotic treatment (AB) and the immediate making of other diagnostic-therapeutic decisions have a direct impact on the survival of patients with severe bacterial infection. The main objective of this systematic review is to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of PCT to predict bacterial infection in adult patients treated with clinical suspicion of infection in the ED, as well as to analyze whether the different studies manage to identify a specific value of PCT as the most relevant from the diagnostic point of view of clinical decision that can be recommended for decision making in ED. METHOD: A systematic review is carried out following the PRISMA regulations in the database of PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, Lilacs, Cochrane, Epistemonikos, Tripdatabase and ClinicalTrials.gov from January 2005 to May 31, 2023 without language restriction and using a combination of MESH terms: "Procalcitonin", "Infection/Bacterial Infection/Sepsis", "Emergencies/Emergency/Emergency Department", "Adults" and "Diagnostic". Observational cohort studies (diagnostic performance analyses) were included. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to assess the quality of the method used and the risk of bias of the included articles. Observational cohort studies were included. No meta-analysis techniques were performed, but results were compared narratively. RESULTS: A total of 1,323 articles were identified, of which 21 that met the inclusion criteria were finally analyzed. The studies include 10,333 patients with 4,856 bacterial infections (47%). Eight studies were rated as high, 9 as moderate, and 4 as low. The AUC-ROC of all studies ranges from 0.68 (95% CI: 0.61-0.72) to 0.99 (95% CI: 0.98-1). The value of PCT 0.2-0.3 ng/ml is the most used and proposed in up to twelve of the works included in this review whose average estimated performance is an AUC-ROC of 0.79. If only the results of the 5 high-quality studies using a cut-off point of 0.2-0.3 ng/ml PCT are taken into account, the estimated mean AUC-COR result is 0.78 with Se:69 % and Es:76%. CONCLUSIONS: PCT has considerable diagnostic accuracy for bacterial infection in patients treated in ED for different infectious processes. The cut-off point of 0.25 (0.2-0.3) ng/ml has been positioned as the most appropriate to predict the existence of bacterial infection and can be used to help reasonably rule it out.

Modelos predictivos de bacteriemia en el servicio de urgencias: revisión sistemática / Models to predict bacteremia in the emergency department: a systematic review

Objetivo. La obtención de hemocultivos (HC) se realiza en el 15% de los pacientes atendidos con sospecha de infección en los servicios de urgencias (SU) con una rentabilidad diagnóstica variable (2-20%). La mortalidad a 30 días de estos pacientes con bacteriemia es elevada, doble o triple que el resto con el mismo proceso. Así, encontrar un modelo predictivo de bacteriemia eficaz y aplicable en los SU sería muy importante. Clásicamente, el modelo de Shapiro ha sido la referencia en todo el mundo. El objetivo de esta revisión sistemática (RS) es comparar la capacidad para predecir bacteriemia en los SU de los distintos modelos predictivos publicados desde el año 2008 (fecha de publicación del modelo de Shapiro). Métodos. Se realiza una RS siguiendo la normativa PRISMA en las bases de datos de PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, Lilacs, Cochrane, Epistemonikos, Tripdatabase y ClinicalTrials.gov desde enero de 2008 hasta 31 mayo 2023 sin restricción de idiomas y utilizando una combinación de términos MESH: “Bacteremia/Bacteraemia/Blood Stream Infection”, “Prediction Model/Clinical Prediction Rule/Risk Prediction Model”, “Emergencies/Emergency/Emergency Department” y “Adults”. Se incluyeron estudios de cohortes observacionales (analíticos de rendimiento diagnóstico). Para valorar la calidad del método empleado y el riesgo de sesgos de los artículos incluidos se utilizó la NewcastleOttawa Scale (NOS). No se incluyeron estudios de casos y controles, revisiones narrativas y en otros tipos de artículos. No se realizaron técnicas de metanálisis, pero los resultados se compararon narrativamente. El protocolo de la RS se registró en PROSPERO (CRD42023426327). Resultados. Se identificaron 917 artículos y se analizaron finalmente 20 que cumplían los criterios de inclusión. Los estudios incluidos contienen 33.182 HC procesados con 5.074 bacteriemias (15,3%). Once estudios fueron calificados de calidad alta, 7 moderada y 2 baja... (AU)

Objective. Blood cultures are ordered in emergency departments for 15% of patients with suspected infection. The diagnostic yield varies from 2% to 20%. Thirty-day mortality in patients with bacteremia is high, doubling or tripling the rate in patients with the same infection but without bacteremia. Thus, finding an effective model to predict bacteremia that is applicable in emergency departments is an important goal. Shapiro’s model is the one traditionally used as a reference internationally. The aim of this systematic review was to compare the predictive power of bacteremia risk models published since 2008, when Shapiro’s model first appeared. Methods. We followed the recommendations of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and MetaAnalyses (PRISMA) statement, searching in the following databases for articles published between January 2008 and May 31, 2023: PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, Lilacs, Cochrane, Epistemonikos, Trip Medical Database, and ClinicalTrials.gov. No language restrictions were specified. The search terms were the following Medical Subject Headings: bacteremia/bacteraemia/blood stream infection, prediction model/clinical prediction rule/risk prediction model, emergencies/emergency/emergency department, and adults. Observational cohort studies analyzing diagnostic yield were included; case-control studies, narrative reviews, and other types of articles were excluded. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used to score quality and risk of bias in the included studies. The results were compared descriptively, without meta-analysis. The protocol was included in the PROSPERO register (CRD42023426327). Results. Twenty studies out of a total of 917 were found to meet the inclusion criteria. The included studies together analyzed 33 182 blood cultures, which detected 5074 cases of bacteremia (15.3%). Eleven studies were of high quality, 7 of moderate quality, and 2 of low quality... (AU)

Precisión diagnóstica de la procalcitonina para la bacteriemia en el servicio de urgencias: una revisión sistemática / Diagnostic accuracy of procalcitonin for bacteremia in the emergency department: a systematic review

Introducción. La obtención de hemocultivos (HC) se realiza en el 15% de los pacientes atendidos con sospecha de infección en los Servicios de Urgencias Hospitalarios (SUH) con unarentabilidad diagnóstica variable (2-20%). La mortalidad a 30 días de los pacientes con bacteriemia es dos o tres veces mayor que el resto con el mismo proceso. La procalcitonina (PCT) es un biomarcador que se ha utilizado como herramienta de ayuda en la predicción de bacteriemia en los SUH. El objetivo principal de esta revisión sistemática es investigar la precisión diagnóstica de la PCT para predecir bacteriemia verdadera en los pacientes adultos atendidos con sospecha clínica de infección enel SUH, así como identificar un valor específico de PCT como el más relevante desde el punto de vista diagnóstico de decisión clínica que pueda recomendarse para la toma de decisiones. Método. Se realiza una revisión sistemática siguiendo la normativa PRISMA en las bases de datos de PubMed, Web of Sciencie, EMBASE, Lilacs, Cochrane, Epistemonikos, Tripdatabase y ClinicalTrials.gov desde enero de 2010 hasta 31 mayo 2023 sin restricción de idiomas y utilizando una combinación de términos MESH: “Bacteremia/Bacteraemia/Blood Stream Infection”, “Procalcitonin”, “Emergencies/Emergency/ Emergency Department” y “Adults”. Se incluyeron estudios de cohortes observacionales y parcialmente una revisión sistemática. No se realizaron técnicas de metaanálisis, pero los resultados se compararon narrativamente. Resultados. Se identificaron un total de 1.372 artículos de los cuales se analizaron finalmente 20 que cumplían los criterios de inclusión. Los estudios incluidos representan un total de 18.120 HC procesados con 2.877 bacteriemias (15,88%). Diez estudios fueron calificados de calidad alta, 9 moderada y 1 baja. El ABC-COR de todos los estudios se sitúa desde 0,68 (IC 95%: 0,59-0,77) hasta 0,98 (IC 95%: 0,97-0,99). . ...Conclusiones. ... . (AU)

Introduction. Obtaining blood cultures (HC) is performed in 15% of the patients treated with suspicion of infection in the Hospital Emergency Services (ED) with a variable diagnostic yield (2-20%). The 30-day mortality of patients with bacteremia is two or three times higher than the rest with the same process. Procalcitonin (PCT) is a biomarker that has been used as a tool to help predict bacteremia in HEDs. The main objective of this systematic review is to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of PCT in predicting true bacteraemia in adult patients treated with clinical suspicion of infection in the ED, as well as to identify a specific PCT value as the most relevant from the clinical decision diagnostic point of view that can be recommended for decision making. Method. A systematic review was performed following the PRISMA guidelines in the PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, Lilacs, Cochrane, Epistemonikos, Tripdatabase and ClinicalTrials. gov databases from January 2010 to May 31, 2023 without language restrictions and using a combination of MESH terms: “Bacteremia/ Bacteraemia/ Blood Stream Infection”, “Procalcitonin”, “Emergencies/ Emergency/ Emergency Department” and “Adults”. Observational cohort studies and partially an systematic review were included. No meta-analysis techniques were performed, but the results were compared narratively. Results. A total of 1,372 articles were identified, of which 20 that met the inclusion criteria were finally analyzed. The included studies represent a total of 18,120 processed HC with 2,877 bacteraemias (15.88%). Ten studies were rated as high, 9 moderate and 1 low quality. The AUC-COR of all the studies ranges from 0.68 (95% CI: 0.59-0.77) to 0.98 (95% CI: 0.97- 0.99). The PCT value >0.5 ng/ml is the most widely used and proposed in up to ten of the works included in this systematic review, whose estimated mean yield is an AUC-COR of 0.833. ...Conclusions. ... (AU)

Modelos predictivos de bacteriemia en el servicio de urgencias: revisión sistemática / Models to predict bacteremia in the emergency department: a systematic review

Objetivo. La obtención de hemocultivos (HC) se realiza en el 15% de los pacientes atendidos con sospecha de infección en los servicios de urgencias (SU) con una rentabilidad diagnóstica variable (2-20%). La mortalidad a 30 días de estos pacientes con bacteriemia es elevada, doble o triple que el resto con el mismo proceso. Así, encontrar un modelo predictivo de bacteriemia eficaz y aplicable en los SU sería muy importante. Clásicamente, el modelo de Shapiro ha sido la referencia en todo el mundo. El objetivo de esta revisión sistemática (RS) es comparar la capacidad para predecir bacteriemia en los SU de los distintos modelos predictivos publicados desde el año 2008 (fecha de publicación del modelo de Shapiro). Métodos. Se realiza una RS siguiendo la normativa PRISMA en las bases de datos de PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, Lilacs, Cochrane, Epistemonikos, Tripdatabase y ClinicalTrials.gov desde enero de 2008 hasta 31 mayo 2023 sin restricción de idiomas y utilizando una combinación de términos MESH: “Bacteremia/Bacteraemia/Blood Stream Infection”, “Prediction Model/Clinical Prediction Rule/Risk Prediction Model”, “Emergencies/Emergency/Emergency Department” y “Adults”. Se incluyeron estudios de cohortes observacionales (analíticos de rendimiento diagnóstico). Para valorar la calidad del método empleado y el riesgo de sesgos de los artículos incluidos se utilizó la NewcastleOttawa Scale (NOS). No se incluyeron estudios de casos y controles, revisiones narrativas y en otros tipos de artículos. No se realizaron técnicas de metanálisis, pero los resultados se compararon narrativamente. El protocolo de la RS se registró en PROSPERO (CRD42023426327). Resultados. Se identificaron 917 artículos y se analizaron finalmente 20 que cumplían los criterios de inclusión. Los estudios incluidos contienen 33.182 HC procesados con 5.074 bacteriemias (15,3%). Once estudios fueron calificados de calidad alta, 7 moderada y 2 baja... (AU)

Objective. Blood cultures are ordered in emergency departments for 15% of patients with suspected infection. The diagnostic yield varies from 2% to 20%. Thirty-day mortality in patients with bacteremia is high, doubling or tripling the rate in patients with the same infection but without bacteremia. Thus, finding an effective model to predict bacteremia that is applicable in emergency departments is an important goal. Shapiro’s model is the one traditionally used as a reference internationally. The aim of this systematic review was to compare the predictive power of bacteremia risk models published since 2008, when Shapiro’s model first appeared. Methods. We followed the recommendations of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and MetaAnalyses (PRISMA) statement, searching in the following databases for articles published between January 2008 and May 31, 2023: PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, Lilacs, Cochrane, Epistemonikos, Trip Medical Database, and ClinicalTrials.gov. No language restrictions were specified. The search terms were the following Medical Subject Headings: bacteremia/bacteraemia/blood stream infection, prediction model/clinical prediction rule/risk prediction model, emergencies/emergency/emergency department, and adults. Observational cohort studies analyzing diagnostic yield were included; case-control studies, narrative reviews, and other types of articles were excluded. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used to score quality and risk of bias in the included studies. The results were compared descriptively, without meta-analysis. The protocol was included in the PROSPERO register (CRD42023426327). Results. Twenty studies out of a total of 917 were found to meet the inclusion criteria. The included studies together analyzed 33 182 blood cultures, which detected 5074 cases of bacteremia (15.3%). Eleven studies were of high quality, 7 of moderate quality, and 2 of low quality... (AU)

Models to predict bacteremia in the emergency department: a systematic review. / Modelos predictivos de bacteriemia en el servicio de urgencias: revisión sistemática.

OBJECTIVES: Blood cultures are ordered in emergency departments for 15% of patients with suspected infection. The diagnostic yield varies from 2% to 20%. Thirty-day mortality in patients with bacteremia is high, doubling or tripling the rate in patients with the same infection but without bacteremia. Thus, finding an effective model to predict bacteremia that is applicable in emergency departments is an important goal. Shapiro's model is the one traditionally used as a reference internationally. The aim of this systematic review was to compare the predictive power of bacteremia risk models published since 2008, when Shapiro's model first appeared. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We followed the recommendations of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement, searching in the following databases for articles published between January 2008 and May 31, 2023: PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, Lilacs, Cochrane, Epistemonikos, Trip Medical Database, and ClinicalTrials.gov. No language restrictions were specified. The search terms were the following Medical Subject Headings: bacteremia/bacteraemia/blood stream infection, prediction model/clinical prediction rule/risk prediction model, emergencies/emergency/emergency department, and adults. Observational cohort studies analyzing diagnostic yield were included; case-control studies, narrative reviews, and other types of articles were excluded. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used to score quality and risk of bias in the included studies. The results were compared descriptively, without meta-analysis. The protocol was included in the PROSPERO register (CRD42023426327). RESULTS: Twenty studies out of a total of 917 were found to meet the inclusion criteria. The included studies together analyzed 33 182 blood cultures, which detected 5074 cases of bacteremia (15.3%). Eleven studies were of high quality, 7 of moderate quality, and 2 of low quality. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of Shapiro's model varied from 0.71 to 0.83. Sensitivity was as high as 98%, and specificity ranged from 26% to 69%. Three models with high scores for quality were also supported by both internal and external validation studies: Lee's model (AUC, 0.81; sensitivity 68%; specificity, 81%), the 5MPB-Toledo model (AUC, 0.906 to 0.946), and the MPB-INFURG-SEMES model (AUC, 0.924; sensitivity, 97%; specificity, 76%. CONCLUSION: The 5MPB-Toledo and MPB-INFURG-SEMES are useful for assessing the true risk of bacteremia in patients attended in emergency departments.

OBJETIVO: La obtención de hemocultivos (HC) se realiza en el 15% de los pacientes atendidos con sospecha de infección en los servicios de urgencias (SU) con una rentabilidad diagnóstica variable (2-20%). La mortalidad a 30 días de estos pacientes con bacteriemia es elevada, doble o triple que el resto con el mismo proceso. Así, encontrar un modelo predictivo de bacteriemia eficaz y aplicable en los SU sería muy importante. Clásicamente, el modelo de Shapiro ha sido la referencia en todo el mundo. El objetivo de esta revisión sistemática (RS) es comparar la capacidad para predecir bacteriemia en los SU de los distintos modelos predictivos publicados desde el año 2008 (fecha de publicación del modelo de Shapiro). METODO: Se realiza una RS siguiendo la normativa PRISMA en las bases de datos de PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, Lilacs, Cochrane, Epistemonikos, Tripdatabase y ClinicalTrials.gov desde enero de 2008 hasta 31 mayo 2023 sin restricción de idiomas y utilizando una combinación de términos MESH: "Bacteremia/Bacteraemia/Blood Stream Infection", "Prediction Model/Clinical Prediction Rule/Risk Prediction Model", "Emergencies/Emergency/Emergency Department" y "Adults". Se incluyeron estudios de cohortes observacionales (analíticos de rendimiento diagnóstico). Para valorar la calidad del método empleado y el riesgo de sesgos de los artículos incluidos se utilizó la Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). No se incluyeron estudios de casos y controles, revisiones narrativas y en otros tipos de artículos. No se realizaron técnicas de metanálisis, pero los resultados se compararon narrativamente. El protocolo de la RS se registró en PROSPERO (CRD42023426327). RESULTADOS: Se identificaron 917 artículos y se analizaron finalmente 20 que cumplían los criterios de inclusión. Los estudios incluidos contienen 33.182 HC procesados con 5.074 bacteriemias (15,3%). Once estudios fueron calificados de calidad alta, 7 moderada y 2 baja. El ABC-COR conseguida por el modelo de Shapiro varía de 0,71 a 0,83, con sensibilidad (Se) hasta del 98%, con especificidad (Es) (26% a 69%). Para los tres modelos que tienen validación interna y externa y una buena calidad metodológica, el modelo de Lee consigue un ABC-COR de 0,81 con Se: 68% y Es: 81%, el modelo 5MPB-Toledo consigue un ABC-COR entre 0,91 y 0,95, y el MPB-INFURG-SEMES obtiene una ABC-COR de 0,92 con una Se: 97% y Es: 76%. CONCLUSIONES: Los modelos 5MPB-Toledo y MPB-INFURG-SEMES representan herramientas útiles para la estratificación del riesgo real de bacteriemia en los pacientes atendidos en los SU.

Procalcitonin and C-reactive protein: markers in the early diagnosis of anastomotic leak.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the efficacy of serum procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) in the early diagnosis of anastomotic leak (AL) in patients undergoing colorectal surgery. METHOD: Diagnostic test in a tertiary care hospital. Patients who did not have preoperative measurements of PCT and CRP were excluded. Those with postoperative infection not related to AL were eliminated. The diagnostic efficacy measures were sensitivity (Sn), specificity (Sp), positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values, positive (LR+) and negative (LR-) likelihood ratios, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS: Thirty-nine patients were analyzed; six had AL (15.4%). PCT and CRP increased on the second postoperative day, only in patients with AL. The cut-off points at the second postoperative day were 1.55 ng/mL for PCT and 11.25 mg/L for CRP. The most efficacious test was PCR at second postoperative day (AUROC: 1.00; Sn: 100%; Sp: 96.7%; PPV: 85.7%; NPV: 100%; LR+: 33.0). CONCLUSIONS: CRP at second postoperative day was the most effective test in the early diagnosis of AL in patients undergoing colorectal surgery, with a cut-off point lower than that reported in the international literature.

OBJETIVO: Determinar la eficacia de la procalcitonina (PCT) y la proteína C reactiva (PCR) séricas en el diagnóstico de fuga anastomótica (FA) en los pacientes sometidos a cirugía colorrectal. MÉTODO: Prueba diagnóstica en un hospital de tercer nivel. Se excluyeron los pacientes que no tuvieron mediciones preoperatorias de PCT y PCR. Se eliminaron los que cursaron con infección posoperatoria no relacionada con FA. Las medidas de eficacia diagnóstica fueron sensibilidad (S), especificidad (E), valores predictivos positivo (VPP) y negativo (VPN), razones de verosimilitud positiva (RV+) y negativa (RV−), y área bajo la curva característica operativa del receptor (AUROC). RESULTADOS: Se analizaron 39 pacientes, de los cuales 6 (15.4%) tuvieron FA. La PCT y la PCR aumentaron al segundo día posoperatorio solo en los pacientes con FA. Los puntos de corte al día 2 fueron 1.55 ng/ml para PCT y 11.25 mg/l para PCR. La prueba más eficaz fue la PCR al día 2 (AUROC: 1.00; S: 100%; E: 96.7%; VPP: 85.7%; VPN: 100%; RV+: 33.0). CONCLUSIONES: La PCR en el segundo día posoperatorio fue la prueba más eficaz en el diagnóstico temprano de FA en los pacientes sometidos a cirugía colorrectal, con un punto de corte inferior a lo reportado en la literatura internacional.

Predictive value of C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and interleukin-6 on 30-day mortality in patients with bloodstream infections / Valor predictivo de la proteína C reactiva, procalcitonina e interleucina-6 en la mortalidad a los 30 días en pacientes con infecciones del torrente sanguíneo

Background We aimed to assess the predictive performance of C-reactive protein (hsCRP), procalcitonin (PCT), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) at different times points of bloodstream infections (BSI) management. Methods The cases were collected from January 2020 to June 2021 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University (n=185). We collected patients’ records of hsCRP, PCT, and IL-6 serum levels and calculated the clearance of these biomarkers on day 1, day 3, and day 5 (hsCRP-1, hsCRP-3, hsCRP-5, so do PCT, and IL-6). We analyzed these predictive performances for 30-day mortality with ROC and Logistic regression. The correlation between biomarkers and their clearance rates was performed by a rank correlation method. Results The 30-day mortality was 11.35% (21/185). Serial serum hsCRP-3, IL-6-3, PCT-1, PCT-3, and PCT-5 were statistically higher in BSI mortality than survivors. Significant predictive ability was found for 30-day mortality with blood culture (BC) reported fungi (OR, 0.033; 95% CI: 0.002–0.535) and PCT-5 (OR, 1.045; 95% CI: 1.013–1.078) levels, respectively. The AUC of PCT-5 levels for 30-day mortality was 0.784 (95% CI 0.678–0.949), and the cut-off value was 5.455ng/mL. Conclusions PCT-5 is more valuable for the prognosis of 30-day mortality in patients with BSI compared to the other inflammatory biomarkers (AU)

Antecedentes Nuestro objetivo fue evaluar el rendimiento predictivo de la proteína C reactiva (hsCRP), procalcitonina (PCT) e interleucina-6 (IL-6) en distintos momentos del tratamiento de pacientes con infecciones del torrente sanguíneo. Métodos Los casos se recogieron entre enero de 2020 y junio de 2021 en el Primer Hospital Afiliado de la Universidad Médica de Xinjiang (n = 185). Los valores de los niveles séricos de hsCRP, PCT e IL-6 se obtuvieron de los registros de los pacientes y calculamos la depuración de estos biomarcadores en el día 1, el día 3 y el día 5 (hsCRP-1, hsCRP-3, hsCRP-5, PCT e IL-6). Analizamos estos rendimientos predictivos para la mortalidad a 30 días con ROC y regresión logística. La correlación entre los biomarcadores y sus tasas de eliminación se realizó mediante un método de correlación de rangos. Resultados La mortalidad a 30 días fue de 11,35% (21/185). Los valores séricos seriados de hsCRP-3, IL-6-3, PCT-1, PCT-3 y PCT-5 fueron estadísticamente más elevados en los pacientes fallecidos de infecciones del torrente sanguíneo que en los supervivientes. Se halló una capacidad predictiva significativa para la mortalidad por hongos (OR, 0,033; IC 95%: 0,002-0,535) y el valor de PCT-5 (OR, 1.045; IC 95%: 1.013-1.078), respectivamente. El AUC de los niveles de PCT-5 para la mortalidad a 30 días fue de 0,784 (IC 95%: 0,678-0,949), y el valor de corte fue de 5.455 ng/mL. Conclusiones La PCT-5 fue un parámetro de más valor para el pronóstico de mortalidad a 30 días en pacientes con infecciones del torrente sanguíneo en comparación con los demás biomarcadores inflamatorios (AU)

Predictive value of C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and interleukin-6 on 30-day mortality in patients with bloodstream infections.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess the predictive performance of C-reactive protein (hsCRP), procalcitonin (PCT), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) at different times points of bloodstream infections (BSI) management. METHODS: The cases were collected from January 2020 to June 2021 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University (n=185). We collected patients' records of hsCRP, PCT, and IL-6 serum levels and calculated the clearance of these biomarkers on day 1, day 3, and day 5 (hsCRP-1, hsCRP-3, hsCRP-5, so do PCT, and IL-6). We analyzed these predictive performances for 30-day mortality with ROC and Logistic regression. The correlation between biomarkers and their clearance rates was performed by a rank correlation method. RESULTS: The 30-day mortality was 11.35% (21/185). Serial serum hsCRP-3, IL-6-3, PCT-1, PCT-3, and PCT-5 were statistically higher in BSI mortality than survivors. Significant predictive ability was found for 30-day mortality with blood culture (BC) reported fungi (OR, 0.033; 95% CI: 0.002-0.535) and PCT-5 (OR, 1.045; 95% CI: 1.013-1.078) levels, respectively. The AUC of PCT-5 levels for 30-day mortality was 0.784 (95% CI 0.678-0.949), and the cut-off value was 5.455ng/mL. CONCLUSIONS: PCT-5 is more valuable for the prognosis of 30-day mortality in patients with BSI compared to the other inflammatory biomarkers.

The Guadalajara Declaration on sepsis: emergency physicians' constructive comments on the Surviving Sepsis Campaign's 2021 updated guidelines. / Declaración de Guadalajara: una visión constructiva desde el servicio de urgencias a partir de la Surviving Sepsis Campaign 2021.

TEXT: The Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) published a 2021 update of its 2016 recommendations. The update was awaited with great anticipation the world over, especially by emergency physicians. Under the framework of the CIMU 2022 (33rd World Emergency Medicine Conference) in Guadalajara, Mexico in March, emergency physiciansreviewed and analyzed the 2021 SSC guidelines from our specialty's point of view. In this article, the expert reviewers present their consensus on certain key points of most interest in emergency settings at this time. The main aims of the review are to present constructive comments on 10 key points and/or recommendations in the SSC 2021 update and to offer emergency physicians' experience- and evidence-based proposals. Secondarily, the review's recommendations are a starting point for guidelines to detect severe sepsis in emergency department patients and prevent progression, which is ultimate goal of what has become known as the Guadalajara Declaration on sepsis.

TEXTO: En noviembre del año 2021, la Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) publicó una actualización de sus recomendaciones y directrices de 2016. Estas fueron recibidas con una enorme expectativa en todo el mundo, especialmente entre los médicos de urgencias y emergencias (MUE). Recientemente, en el marco del CIMU 2022 (33 Congreso Mundial de Medicina de Urgencias celebrado en marzo de 2022 en Guadalajara ­ México) se ha revisado y analizado, desde la perspectiva del MUE, la Guía SSC de 2021. Los expertos que realizaron esa tarea y también consensuaron algunos de los puntos clave que más interesan y preocupan a los MUE en la actualidad han elaborado este documento. Su objetivo principal es analizar de forma constructiva diez de los puntos clave y recomendaciones de la SSC 2021 para complementarlas con argumentos y propuestas desde la experiencia, evidencia y perspectiva del urgenciólogo. Además, de forma secundaria, pretende ser el punto de partida de la elaboración de las guías para detectar, prevenir la progresión y atender a los pacientes con infección grave y sepsis en urgencias, que supone la meta final de lo que desde la MUE ya se conoce como "la Declaración de Guadalajara".

Declaración de Guadalajara: una visión constructiva desde el servicio de urgencias a partir de la Surviving Sepsis Campaign 2021 / The Guadalajara Declaration on sepsis: emergency physicians’ constructive comments on the Surviving Sepsis Campaign’s 2021 updated guidelines

En noviembre del año 2021, la Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) publicó una actualización de sus recomendaciones y directrices de 2016. Estas fueron recibidas con una enorme expectativa en todo el mundo, especialmente entre los médicos de urgencias y emergencias (MUE). Recientemente, en el marco del CIMU 2022 (33 Congreso Mundial de Medicina de Urgencias celebrado en marzo de 2022 en Guadalajara – México) se ha revisado y analizado, desde la perspectiva del MUE, la Guía SSC de 2021. Los expertos que realizaron esa tarea y también consensuaron algunos de los puntos clave que más interesan y preocupan a los MUE en la actualidad han elaborado este documento. Su objetivo principal es analizar de forma constructiva diez de los puntos clave y recomendaciones de la SSC 2021 para complementarlas con argumentos y propuestas desde la experiencia, evidencia y perspectiva del urgenciólogo. Además, de forma secundaria, pretende ser el punto de partida de la elaboración de las guías para detectar, prevenir la progresión y atender a los pacientes con infección grave y sepsis en urgencias, que supone la meta final de lo que desde la MUE ya se conoce como “la Declaración de Guadalajara”. (AU)

The Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) published a 2021 update of its 2016 recommendations. The update was awaited with great anticipation the world over, especially by emergency physicians. Under the framework of the CIMU 2022 (33rd World Emergency Medicine Conference) in Guadalajara, Mexico in March, emergency physicians reviewed and analyzed the 2021 SSC guidelines from our specialty’s point of view. In this article, the expert reviewers present their consensus on certain key points of most interest in emergency settings at this time. The main aims of the review are to present constructive comments on 10 key points and/or recommendations in the SSC 2021 update and to offer emergency physicians’ experience- and evidence-based proposals. Secondarily, the review’s recommendations are a starting point for guidelines to detect severe sepsis in emergency department patients and prevent progression, which is ultimate goal of what has become known as the Guadalajara Declaration on sepsis. (AU)

Procalcitonina y proteína C reactiva séricas como biomarcadores predictivos de dehiscencia de anastomosis intestinal en cirugía colorrectal.

BACKGROUND: There has been recent interest in the seric levels of procalcitonin (PCT) and C reactive protein (PCR) as a marker of intraabdominal infection after a colorrectal surgery, however, the actual literature remains inconclusive. OBJECTIVE: To test if C-Reactive Protein (PCR) and procalcitonin (PCT) as predictive factors of anastomotic leak after colorectal surgery. METHOD: Retrospective cohort, of patients with ileostomy or colostomy who had intestinal transit restitution by general surgeons in our center, from march 2018 to march 2020. RESULTS: We registered 4 (36.4%) anastomotic leaks. We compared median PCR and PCT between group 1 (without anastomotic leak) and group 2 (with anastomotic leak). Median PCT3PO was 4.86 ng/ml in group 1 vs 13.7 ng/ml in group 2, and PCT5PO was 1.3071 ng/ml vs 6.74 ng/ml (DS: 5.04 vs. 11.53 and 0.779 vs. 10.44). Median PCR3PO and PCR5PO was 194.7 mg/l in group 1 vs 100.97 mg/l in group 2, and 159.8 mg/l vs 65.67 mg/l, (DS: 88.78 vs. 82.01 and 94.77 vs. 58.009). CONCLUSIONS: Persistent higher levels of seric PCR and PCT at 3rd and 5th postoperative day could be an anastomotic leackage. This biomarkers might be added as additional criteria of discharge.

ANTECEDENTES: La medición sérica de procalcitonina (PCT) y proteína C reactiva (PCR) como marcadores de infección intraabdominal posterior a la cirugía colorrectal ha tomado interés en los recientes años, sin embargo, la literatura que existe en la actualidad no es concluyente. OBJETIVO: Evaluar los biomarcadores séricos de inflamación procalcitonina (PCT) y proteína C reactiva (PCR) como factores predictores para dehiscencia de anastomosis (DA) en cirugía colorrectal. MÉTODO: Cohorte retrospectiva de pacientes con cirugía abdominal, con ileostomía o colostomía, que fueron protocolizados para restitución del tránsito intestinal por el departamento de cirugía general en un hospital de tercer nivel, de marzo de 2018 a marzo de 2020. RESULTADOS: La DA ocurrió en 4 (36.4%) de 11 pacientes. Se comparó la media de dos grupos: el grupo 1 sin DA frente al grupo 2 que presentaron DA. Las concentraciones séricas de PCT3PO fueron de 4.86 ng/ml en el grupo 1 y 13.7 ng/ml en el grupo 2, y las de PCT5PO fueron de 1.3071 ng/ml y 6.74 ng/ml, respectivamente (desviación estándar [DE]: 5.04 vs. 11.53 y 0.779 vs. 10.44). Las concentraciones séricas de PCR3PO fueron de 194.7 mg/l en el grupo 1 y 100.97 mg/l en el grupo 2, y las de PCR5PO fueron de 159.8 mg/l y 65.67 mg/l, respectivamente (DE: 88.78 vs. 82.01 y 94.77 vs. 58.009). CONCLUSIONES: La persistencia de valores elevados den PCR y PCT séricas al tercer y quinto día posoperatorios pudieran demostrar DA. Estos marcadores podrían agregarse como criterio de egreso.

Utilidad del modelo 5MPB-Toledo para predecir bacteriemia en el paciente con infección del tracto urinario en el servicio de urgencias / Usefulness of the 5MPB-Toledo model to predict bacteremia in patients with urinary tract infections in the emergency department

Objetivo: Analizar la utilidad de un nuevo modelo predictivo de bacteriemia (5MPB-Toledo) en pacientes atendidos por infección del tracto urinario (ITU) en los servicios de urgencias (SU). Métodos: Estudio observacional, prospectivo y multicéntrico de los hemocultivos (HC) obtenidos en pacientes mayores de 18 años atendidos por ITU en 65SU desde el 1 de octubre de 2019 hasta el 30 de abril de 2020. Se analizó la capacidad predictiva del modelo con el área bajo la curva (ABC) de la característica operativa del receptor (COR) y se calculó el rendimiento diagnóstico del punto de corte elegido con su sensibilidad, especificidad, valor predictivo positivo y valor predictivo negativo. Resultados: Se incluyeron 1.499 episodios de HC extraídos. De ellos se consideraron como bacteriemias verdaderas 277 (18,5%) y como HC negativos 1.222 (81,5%). Entre los negativos 94 (6,3%) se consideraron contaminados. El ABC-COR del modelo fue de 0,937 (IC 95%: 0,926-0,949). El rendimiento diagnóstico del modelo con un PC≥5 puntos consigue una sensibilidad de 97,47% (IC 95%: 94,64-98,89), especificidad de 76,68% (IC 95%: 74,18-79,00), un valor predictivo positivo de 48,65% (IC 95%: 44,42-52,89) y un valor predictivo negativo de 99,26% (IC 95%: 98,41-99,67). Conclusión: El modelo 5MPB-Toledo podría ser útil para predecir bacteriemia en los pacientes adultos atendidos en el SU por un episodio de ITU (AU)

Objective: To analyze the usefulness of a new predictive model of bacteremia (5MPB-Toledo) in patients treated for urinary tract infection (UTI) in the emergency department (ED). Methods: Prospective and multicenter observational cohort study of the blood cultures (BC) ordered for patients with UTIs in 65 Spanish ED from October 1, 2019, to April 30, 2020. The predictive ability of the model was analyzed with the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The diagnostic performance was calculated with the chosen cut-off point for sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. Results A total of 1,499 blood cultures were evaluated. True cases of bacteremia were confirmed in 277 (18.5%). The remaining 1,222 cultures (81.5%) were negative. Ninety-four (6.3%) were considered contaminated. The model's area under the ROC curve was 0.937 (95% CI, 0.926-0.949). The prognostic performance with a model's cut-off value of≥5 points achieved 97.47% (95% CI, 94.64-98.89) sensitivity, 76.68% (95% CI, 74.18-79.00) specificity, 48.65% (95% CI, 44.42-52.89) positive predictive value and 99.26% (95% CI, 98.41-99.67) negative predictive value. Conclusion: The 5MPB-Toledo score is useful for predicting bacteremia in patients with UTIs who visit the ED (AU)

Usefulness of the 5MPB-Toledo model to predict bacteremia in patients with urinary tract infections in the emergency department.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the usefulness of a new predictive model of bacteremia (5MPB-Toledo) in patients treated for urinary tract infection (UTI) in the emergency department (ED). METHODS: Prospective and multicenter observational cohort study of the blood cultures (BC) ordered for patients with UTIs in 65 Spanish ED from November 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020. The predictive ability of the model was analyzed with the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The diagnostic performance was calculated with the chosen cut-off point for sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. RESULTS: A total of 1,499 blood cultures were evaluated. True cases of bacteremia were confirmed in 277 (18.5%). The remaining 1,222 cultures (81.5%) were negative. Ninety-four (6.3%) were considered contaminated. The model's area under the ROC curve was 0.937 (95% CI, 0.926-0.949). The prognostic performance with a model's cut-off value of ≥5 points achieved 97.47% (95% CI, 94.64-98.89) sensitivity, 76.68% (95% CI, 74.18-79.00) specificity, 48.65% (95% CI, 44.42-52.89) positive predictive value and 99.26% (95% CI, 98.41-99.67) negative predictive value. CONCLUSION: The 5MPB-Toledo score is useful for predicting bacteremia in patients with UTIs who visit the ED.

Procalcitonina sérica como marcador de la función del injerto en el postrasplante renal inmediato

Contexto la procalcitonina (PCT) podría ser útil en la evaluación de la función del injerto renal (IR) en el postrasplante inmediato, ya que sus niveles se incrementan posterior a la elevación de citocinas inflamatorias (IL-6, TNF-ß) durante eventos de disfunción renal. Objetivo determinar la asociación de la PCT sérica con la función del injerto renal en el periodo postrasplante inmediato. Metodología cohorte retrospectiva de septiembre del 2018 a abril del 2019 en la División de Nefrología y Trasplantes, del Centro Médico Nacional de Occidente (CMNO), del Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS). Se incluyeron 62 receptores de trasplante renal de donante vivo (DV) y fallecido (DF) con determinación de PCT antes del séptimo día del TR y el registro de eventos de disfunción temprana del injerto (DTI), comparados con pacientes sin DTI (sDTI). Resultados los receptores con DTI presentaron niveles más altos de PCT (13,90, 3,90, 1,22 ng/mL) comparado con el grupo sin DTI (0,32, 0,31 y 0,22 ng/ml) en los días 1, 3 y 5 respectivamente; p < 0,05. Conclusiones la PCT es un marcador biológico asociado a DTI en el postrasplante renal inmediato.

Background Procalcitonin (PCT) could be useful for evaluation of the renal allograft (RG) in the immediate post-transplant since its levels increase after elevation of the inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, TNF-ß) during events of renal failure. Purpose Our objective was to determine the association of serum PCT with the function of the RG in the immediate post-transplant. Methodology A retrospective cohort from September 2018- April 2019 in the National Western Medical Center of the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS), was performed. Sixty-two recipients of living donor (LD) and deceased donor (DD) renal transplant (RT) with PCT evaluation before the seventh days of RT were included; and, events of early renal allograft failure (EAF) were recorded and compared to patients no EAF (nEAF). Results The recipients with EAF presented with higher PCT levels (13.90, 3.90, 1.22 ng/mL) compared to the nEAF group (0.32, 0.31, and 0.22 ng/ml) on days 1, 3, and 5, respectively (p < 0.05). Conclusions The PCT is a biological marker associated with EAF in the immediate post-transplant.

Nuevos modelos predictivos de bacteriemia en el servicio de urgencias: un paso adelante / New predictive models of bacteremia in the emergency department: a step forward

La atención de pacientes con sospecha de un proceso infeccioso en los servicios de urgencias hospitalarios(SUH) se haincrementado en la última década hasta suponer alrededor del15-20% de todas las atenciones diarias. En la valoración inicialde estos enfermos se toman muestras para los distintos estudios microbiológicos en un 45% de los casos, donde predomina la obtención de hemocultivos (HC), en el 14,6% de todosellos. La rentabilidad diagnóstica de estos HC es muy variable(2-20%). Los focos o procesos infecciosos más frecuentes sospechados o confirmados de las bacteriemias verdaderas(BV) enlos SUH son la infección del tracto urinario (45%) y la infecciónrespiratoria (25%). Por todo ello, la sospecha y confirmaciónde la BV tiene un relevante significado diagnóstico, pronósticoy obliga a cambiar algunas de las decisiones más importantesa tomar en el SUH. Entre otras, indicar el alta o ingreso, extraer HC y administrar el antimicrobiano adecuado y precoz.La intención de esta revisión es poner de manifiesto las evidencias científicas publicadas en los últimos cinco años, aclararlas controversias existentes actuales y comparar la capacidadpara predecir bacteriemia de los últimos modelos predictivospublicados desde el año 2017 con los ya existentes en esa fecha, año en el que se publicó una revisión que dejaba abierta lapropuesta de seguir buscando un modelo con un rendimientoadecuado para los SUH. Y así, a partir de ella, generar distintasrecomendaciones que ayuden a definir el papel que pueden tener estos modelos o escalas en la mejora de la indicación deobtención de los HC, así como en la toma inmediata de otrasdecisiones diagnóstico-terapéuticas (administración precozy adecuada del tratamiento antibiótico, solicitud de estudios complementarios y otras muestras microbiológicas, intensidaddel soporte hemodinámico, necesidad de ingreso, etc.) (AU)

The care of patients with a suspected infectious processin hospital emergency department (ED) has increased in thelast decade to account for around 15-20% of all daily care.In the initial evaluation of these patients, samples are takenfor the different microbiological studies in 45% of the cases,where obtaining blood cultures (BC) predominates, in 14.6%of all of them. The diagnostic yield of these BC is highly variable (2-20%). The most frequent suspected or confirmed focior infectious processes of true bacteremia (TB) in the ED areurinary tract infection (45%) and respiratory infection (25%).For all these reasons, the suspicion and confirmation of TB hasa relevant diagnostic and prognostic significance and requireschanging some of the most important decisions to be made inthe ED. Among others, indicate discharge or admission, extractBC and administer the appropriate and early antimicrobial. Theintention of this review is to highlight the scientific evidencepublished in the last five years, clarify the current controversies and compare the ability to predict bacteremia of the latest predictive models published since 2017 with those alreadyexisting on that date, year in which a review was publishedthat left open the proposal to continue searching for a modelwith adequate performance for ED. And so, based on it, generate different recommendations that help define the role thatthese models or scales can have in improving the indicationfor obtaining BC, as well as in the immediate making of otherdiagnostic-therapeutic decisions (administration early andappropriate antibiotic treatment, request for complementary studies and other microbiological samples, intensity of hemodynamic support, need for admission, etc.) (AU)

Ability of lactate, procalcitonin, and criteria defining sepsis to predict 30-day mortality, bacteremia, and microbiologically confirmed infection in patients with infection suspicion treated in emergency departments. / Capacidad del lactato, procalcitonina y de los criterios definitorios de sepsis para predecir mortalidad a 30 días, bacteriemia o infección confirmada microbiológicamente en los pacientes atendidos por sospecha de infección en urgencias.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate lactate, procalcitonin, criteria defining systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), and the Quick Sepsis-Related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and compare their ability to predict 30-day mortality, infection with microbiologic confirmation, and true bacteremia in patients treated for infection in hospital emergency departments. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective multicenter observational cohort study. We enrolled a convenience sample of patients aged 18 years or older attended in 71 Spanish emergency departments from October 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020. Each model's predictive power was analyzed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and predetermined decision points were assessed. RESULTS: A total of 4439 patients with a mean (SD) age of 18 years were studied; 2648 (59.7%) were men and 459 (10.3%) died within 30 days. True bacteremia was detected in 899 (20.25%), and microbiologic confirmation was on record for 2057 (46.3%). The model that included the qSOFA score (2) and lactate concentration (0.738 mmol/L; 95% CI, 0.711-0.765 mmol/L) proved to be the best predictor of 30-day mortality, with an AUC of 0.890 (95% CI, 0.880-0.901). The model that included the SIRS score (2) and procalcitonin concentration (0.51 ng/mL) proved to be the best predictor of true bacteremia and microbiologic confirmation, with an AUC of 0.713 (95% CI, 0.698-0.728). CONCLUSION: A qSOFA score of 2 or more plus lactate concentration (0.738 mmol/L) predict 30-day mortality better than the combination of a SIRS score of 2 or more and procalcitonin concentration. A SIRS score of 2 or more plus procalcitonin concentration (0.51 ng/mL) predict true bacteremia and microbiologic confirmation.

OBJETIVO: Evaluar y comparar la capacidad del lactato, la procalcitonina (PCT) y de los criterios definitorios de sepsis (síndrome de respuesta inflamatoria sistémica ­SRIS­ y del quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment ­qSOFA­) para predecir mortalidad a 30 días, o infección ­con confirmación microbiológica o bacteriemia verdadera (BV)­ en los pacientes que acuden al servicio de urgencias hospitalario (SUH) por un episodio de sospecha de infección. METODO: Estudio observacional de cohortes, multicéntrico, prospectivo. Se incluyó por oportunidad a pacientes 18 años atendidos por sospecha de infección en 71 SUH españoles desde el 01/10/2019 al 31/03/2020. Se analizó la capacidad predictiva con el área bajo la curva (ABC) de la característica operativa del receptor (COR) y puntos de decisión predeterminados. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 4.439 pacientes con edad media de 67 (18) años, 2.648 (59,7%) fueron hombres, fallecieron a los 30 días 459 (10,3%), se consideraron BV 899 (20,2%) y se consiguió confirmación microbiológica en 2.057 (46,3%). Para la mortalidad a 30 días la mejor ABC-COR fue la obtenida con el modelo qSOFA 2 más lactato 2 mmol/l con un ABC-COR de 0,738 (0,711-0,765). Para predecir BV y confirmación microbiológica el mejor rendimiento se obtuvo con el modelo de SRIS 2 más PCT 0,51 ng/ml, con un ABC-COR de 0,890 (0,880-0,901) y 0,713 (0,698-0,728), respectivamente. CONCLUSIONES: Para la predicción de mortalidad a 30 días, el qSOFA 2 es superior al SRIS 2 y el mejor rendimiento lo consigue el modelo qSOFA 2 más lactato 2 mmol/l. Para predecir BV y confirmación microbiológica, la PCT es superior al lactato y el mejor rendimiento lo obtiene el modelo SRIS 2 más PCT 0,51 ng/ml.

Capacidad del lactato, procalcitonina y de los criterios definitorios de sepsis para predecir mortalidad a 30 días, bacteriemia o infección confirmada microbiológicamente en los pacientes atendidos por sospecha de infección en urgencias / Ability of lactate, procalcitonin, and criteria defining sepsis to predict 30-day mortality, bacteremia, and microbiologically confirmed infection in patients with infection suspicion treated in emergency departments

Objetivo. Evaluar y comparar la capacidad del lactato, la procalcitonina (PCT) y de los criterios definitorios de sepsis (síndrome de respuesta inflamatoria sistémica –SRIS– y del quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment –qSOFA–) para predecir mortalidad a 30 días, o infección –con confirmación microbiológica o bacteriemia verdadera (BV)– en los pa- cientes que acuden al servicio de urgencias hospitalario (SUH) por un episodio de sospecha de infección. Método. Estudio observacional de cohortes, multicéntrico, prospectivo. Se incluyó por oportunidad a pacientes $ 18 años atendidos por sospecha de infección en 71 SUH españoles desde el 01/10/2019 al 31/03/2020. Se analizó la capacidad predictiva con el área bajo la curva (ABC) de la característica operativa del receptor (COR) y puntos de de- cisión predeterminados. Resultados. Se incluyeron 4.439 pacientes con edad media de 67 (18) años, 2.648 (59,7%) fueron hombres, fallecie- ron a los 30 días 459 (10,3%), se consideraron BV 899 (20,2%) y se consiguió confirmación microbiológica en 2.057 (46,3%). Para la mortalidad a 30 días la mejor ABC-COR fue la obtenida con el modelo qSOFA $ 2 más lactato $ 2 mmol/l con un ABC-COR de 0,738 (0,711-0,765). Para predecir BV y confirmación microbiológica el mejor rendi- miento se obtuvo con el modelo de SRIS $ 2 más PCT $ 0,51 ng/ml, con un ABC-COR de 0,890 (0,880-0,901) y 0,713 (0,698-0,728), respectivamente. Conclusiones. Para la predicción de mortalidad a 30 días, el qSOFA $ 2 es superior al SRIS $ 2 y el mejor rendimien- to lo consigue el modelo qSOFA $ 2 más lactato $ 2 mmol/l. Para predecir BV y confirmación microbiológica, la PCT es superior al lactato y el mejor rendimiento lo obtiene el modelo SRIS $ 2 más PCT $ 0,51 ng/ml.

Objectives. To evaluate lactate, procalcitonin, criteria defining systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), and the Quick Sepsis-Related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and compare their ability to predict 30-day mortality, infection with microbiologic confirmation, and true bacteremia in patients treated for infection in hospital emergency departments. Methods. Prospective multicenter observational cohort study. We enrolled a convenience sample of patients aged 18 years or older attended in 71 Spanish emergency departments from October 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020. Each model’s predictive power was analyzed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and predetermined decision points were assessed. Results. A total of 4439 patients with a mean (SD) age of 18 years were studied; 2648 (59.7%) were men and 459 (10.3%) died within 30 days. True bacteremia was detected in 899 (20.25%), and microbiologic confirmation was on record for 2057 (46.3%). The model that included the qSOFA score ($ 2) and lactate concentration ($ 0.738 mmol/L; 95% CI, 0.711-0.765 mmol/L) proved to be the best predictor of 30-day mortality, with an AUC of 0.890 (95% CI, 0.880-0.901). The model that included the SIRS score ($ 2) and procalcitonin concentration ($ 0.51 ng/mL) proved to be the best predictor of true bacteremia and microbiologic confirmation, with an AUC of 0.713 (95% CI, 0.698-0.728). Conclusions. A qSOFA score of 2 or more plus lactate concentration ($ 0.738 mmol/L) predict 30-day mortality better than the combination of a SIRS score of 2 or more and procalcitonin concentration. A SIRS score of 2 or more plus procalcitonin concentration ($ 0.51 ng/mL) predict true bacteremia and microbiologic confirmation.

Utilidad del modelo 5MPB-Toledo para predecir bacteriemia en el paciente anciano / Usefulness of the 5MPB-Toledo model to predict bacteremia in the elderly patient

Resumen Objetivo: Analizar la utilidad del modelo predictivo de bacteriemia (5MPB-Toledo) en los mayores de 65 años atendidos por infección en el servicio de urgencias (SU). Material y Método: Estudio observacional prospectivo y multicéntrico de los hemocultivos (HC) obtenidos en pacientes mayores de 65 años atendidos por infección en 66 SU españoles desde el 1 de diciembre de 2019 hasta el 30 de abril de 2020. Se analizó la capacidad predictiva del modelo con el área bajo la curva (ABC) de la característica operativa del receptor (COR) y se calculó el rendimiento diagnóstico de los puntos de corte (PC) del modelo elegido con los cálculos de la sensibilidad, la especificidad, el valor predictivo positivo y el valor predictivo negativo. Resultados: Se incluyeron 2.401 episodios de HC extraídos. De ellos, se consideró como bacteriemia verdadera a 579 (24,11%) y como HC negativo a 1.822 (75,89%). Entre los negativos, 138 (5,74%) se consideraron contaminados. Se categorizó a los pacientes en bajo (0-2 puntos), moderado (3-5 puntos) y alto (6-8 puntos) riesgo, con una probabilidad de bacteriemia de 1,2%, 18,1% y 80,7%, respectivamente. El ABC-COR del modelo tras remuestreo fue de 0,908 (IC 95%: 0,897-0,924). El rendimiento diagnóstico del modelo, considerando un PC ≥ 5 puntos, obtiene una sensibilidad de 94% (IC 95%:92-96), especificidad de 77% (IC 95%:76-79) y un valor predictivo negativo de 97% (IC 95%:96-98). Conclusión: El modelo 5MPB-Toledo es de utilidad para predecir bacteriemia en los mayores de 65 años atendidos en el SU por un episodio de infección.

Abstract Objective: To analyse a risk score to predict bacteremia (MPB5-Toledo) in the patients aged older 65 years seen in the emergency departments (ED) due to infections. Patients and Methods: Prospective and multicenter observational cohort study of the blood cultures (BC) ordered in 66 Spanish ED for patients aged older 65 years seen from December 1, 2019, to April 30, 2020. The predictive ability of the model was analyzed with the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The prognostic performance for true bacteremia was calculated with the cut-off values chosen for getting the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. Results: A total of 2.401 blood samples wered cultured. True cases of bacteremia were confirmed in 579 (24.11%). The remaining 1.822 cultures (75.89%) wered negative. And, 138 (5.74%) were judged to be contaminated. Low risk for bacteremia was indicated by a score of 0 to 2 points, intermediate risk by 3 to 5 points, and high risk by 6 to 8 points. Bacteremia in these 3 risk groups was predicted for 1.2%, 18.1%, and 80.7%, respectively. The model´s area under the receiver ope rating characteristic curve was 0.908 (95% CI, 0.897-0.924). The prognostic performance with a model´s cut-off value of ≥ 5 points achieved 94% (95% CI: 92-96) sensitivity, 77% (95% CI: 76-79) specificity, and negative predictive value of 97% (95% CI: 96-98). Conclusion: The 5MPB-Toledo score is useful for predicting bacteremia in the patients aged older 65 years seen in the emergency departments due to infections.

Papel da mudança nos níveis de marcadores inflamatórios pós drenagem na previsão de resultado em colangite aguda / Role of change in the levels of inflammatory markers post drainage in predicting outcome in acute cholangitis

ABSTRACT Background: Acute cholangitis (AC) is a gastro-intestinal emergency associated with significant mortality. Role of change in the levels of inflammatory markers post drainage in predicting outcome in acute cholangitis is uncertain. Objective: To evaluate the predictive value of changes in C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin levels after biliary drainage in relation to outcomes (survival or mortality) at 1 month. Methods A prospective observational study of consecutive adults presenting with AC was performed. At admission and at 48 hours post biliary drainage, procalcitonin and CRP were sent. Results: Between August 2020 till December 2020 we recruited 72 consecutive patients of AC. The median age of the patients was 55 years (range 43-62 years) and 42 (58.33%) were females. Although the delta change in serum procalcitonin (P value<0.001) and CRP (P value<0.001) was significant, it had no bearing on the outcome. Altered sensorium and INR were independently associated with mortality at 1 month. The 30-day mortality prediction of day 0 procalcitonin was measured by receiver operating characteristic analysis which resulted in an area under the curve of 0.697 with a 95% confidence interval (95%CI) of 0.545-0.849. The optimal cut-off of procalcitonin would be 0.57ng/mL with a sensitivity and specificity of 80% and 60% respectively to predict mortality. Conclusion: Change in serum procalcitonin and CRP levels at 48 hours post drainage although significant, had no impact on the outcome of acute cholangitis.

RESUMO Contexto: A colangite aguda (CA) é uma emergência gastro-intestinal associada à significativa mortalidade. O papel da mudança nos níveis de marcadores inflamatórios pós drenagem na previsão do desfecho em CA é incerto. Objetivo: Avaliar o valor preditivo das alterações nos níveis de proteína reativa C (PCR) e procalcitonina após drenagem biliar em relação aos desfechos (sobrevida ou mortalidade) em um mês. Métodos Realizou-se estudo observacional prospectivo de adultos consecutivos que apresentam CA. Na admissão e após 48 horas de drenagem biliar, foram analisadas a procalcitonina e a PCR. Resultados Entre agosto de 2020 e dezembro de 2020, foram recrutados 72 pacientes consecutivos de CA. A idade mediana dos pacientes foi de 55 anos (faixa de 43 a 62 anos) e 42 (58,33%) do sexo feminino. Embora a variação delta no soro procalcitonina (valor P<0,001) e PCR (valor P<0,001) tenha sido significativa, não houve influência sobre o resultado. Sensório alterado e INR foram independentemente associados à mortalidade em 1 mês. A previsão de mortalidade de 30 dias no dia 0 da procalcitonina foi medida pela análise característica operacional receptora que resultou em uma área sob a curva de 0,697 com intervalo de confiança de 95% (IC95%) de 0,545-0,849. O corte ideal de procalcitonina seria de 0,57ng/mL com sensibilidade e especificidade de 80% e 60% respectivamente para prever a mortalidade. Conclusão: A mudança nos níveis de procalcitonina sérica e PCR em 48 horas após a drenagem, embora significativa, não teve impacto no resultado da colangite aguda.