Risk of rabies reintroduction into the European Union as a result of the Russo-Ukrainian war: A quantitative disease risk analysis.

AIMS: The importation of rabid animals poses a continual threat to rabies freedom in the European Union (EU). Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the European Commission eased the rules on companion animal importations for Ukrainian refugees through derogations to the EU Pet Travel Scheme (EU PETS). As Ukraine remains endemic for canine rabies, this paper aimed to quantitatively assess whether the change in regulations affected the risk of rabies introduction to the EU. METHOD AND RESULTS: Transmission pathways for both EU PETS and derogations to this scheme were considered, as well as the scenarios of 100% compliance and reduced compliance within both schemes. Stochastic modelling was performed via a Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the median and 95% confidence intervals of the annual risk of rabies entry and the years between rabies entries into the EU. Following 100% compliance, the derogation scheme posed a significantly lower risk at a value of 3.63 × 10-3 (CI 95% 1.18 × 10-3-9.34 × 10-3) rabies entries per year in comparison to EU PETS where the risk was 4.25 × 10-2 (CI 95% 1.44 × 10-2-9.81 × 10-2). Despite a significantly lower risk as compared to EU PETS under 100% compliance, the derogation scheme was more sensitive to a reduction in compliance which resulted in a 74-fold increase in risk. Given this, even under reduced compliance, the annual risk remained lower under the derogation scheme, although this was not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study suggest that a 4-month period of quarantine, as modelled for the derogation scenario, could reduce the annual risk of rabies entry. This scheme may present a viable solution for the management of companion animal influxes in future crises.

Assessing the Risk of Antimicrobial Resistant Enterococcal Infections in Humans Due to Bacitracin Usage in Poultry.

Bacitracin is an antimicrobial used in the feed or water of poultry in the U.S. for the prevention, treatment, and control of clostridial diseases such as necrotic enteritis. Concern has been raised that bacitracin can select for antimicrobial-resistant bacteria that can be transmitted to humans and subsequently cause disease that is more difficult to treat because of the resistance. The objective of the present study was to perform a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) to estimate the potential risk in the U.S. of human infection with antimicrobial-resistant Enterococcus faecalis and E. faecium derived from chicken and turkey products as a result of bacitracin usage in U.S. poultry. The modeling approach estimated the annual number of healthcare-associated enterococcal infections in the U.S. that would be resistant to antimicrobial therapy and that would be derived from poultry sources because of bacitracin use in poultry. Parameter estimates were developed to be "maximum risk" to overestimate the risk to humans. While approximately 60% of E. faecalis and E. faecium derived from poultry were predicted to possess bacitracin resistance based on the presence of the bcrABDR gene locus, very few human-derived isolates possessed this trait. Furthermore, no vancomycin or linezolid-resistant strains of E. faecalis or E. faecium were detected in poultry sources between the years 2002 and 2019. The model estimated the number of antimicrobial-resistant E. faecalis and E. faecium cases per year that might resist therapy due to bacitracin use in poultry as 0.86 and 0.14, respectively, which translates to an annual risk estimate for E. faecalis of less than 1 in 350 million and for E. faecium of less than 1 in 2 billion for members of the U.S. population. Even with the use of risk-maximizing assumptions, the results indicate that there is a high probability that the use of bacitracin according to label instructions in U.S. poultry presents a negligible risk to human health.

Results of patch testing with five fragrance materials hitherto not tested: A dose-finding study in the clinical population.

BACKGROUND: Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for skin sensitization is used to derive safe use levels of sensitising fragrance ingredients in products. Post-marketing surveillance of the prevalence of contact allergy to these ingredients provides relevant data to help evaluate the performance of these measures. OBJECTIVES: To determine a suitable patch test concentration for five fragrance materials that had hitherto not been tested on a regular basis. These concentrations are then to be used in a surveillance study with patch testing consecutive patients over an extended monitoring period. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Furaneol, CAS.3658-77-3; trans-2-hexenal, CAS.6728-26-3; 4,8-dimethyl-4,9-decadienal, CAS.71077-31-1; longifolene, CAS.475-20-7; benzaldehyde, CAS.10052-7, were patch tested with other fragrance allergens in four clinics. Patch testing was conducted in three rounds, starting with the lowest concentrations of the five ingredients. The doses were increased in the subsequent rounds if no late-appearing positive reactions and virtually no irritant reactions were reported. RESULTS: Overall, 373 patients were tested. No positive allergic reaction was reported to the five ingredients. Patch test results of other fragrance allergens are reported. CONCLUSIONS: The highest test concentrations are each considered safe for patch testing consecutive patients. Further surveillance based on these preparations will evaluate the hypothesis that QRA-driven consumer product levels of these fragrances can prevent sensitization.

Quantitative modeling of in vitro data using an adverse outcome pathway for the risk assessment of decreased lung function in humans.

In the absence of epidemiological data, there is a need to develop computational models that convert in vitro findings to human disease risk predictions following toxicant exposure. In such efforts, in vitro data can be evaluated in the context of adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) that organize mechanistic knowledge based on empirical evidence into a sequence of molecular-, cellular-, tissue-, and organ-level key events that precede an adverse outcome (AO). Here we combined data from advanced in vitro organotypic airway models exposed to combustible cigarette (CC) smoke or Tobacco Heating System (THS) aerosol with an AOP for increased oxidative stress leads to decreased lung function. The mathematical modeling predicted reduced risk of decreased ciliary beating frequency (CBF) based on oxidative stress measurements and reduced risk of decreased mucociliary clearance (MCC) based on CBF measurements in THS aerosol- compared with CC smoke-exposed cultures. To extend the predictions to the AO of decreased lung function, we leveraged human MCC data from current smokers, nonsmokers, former smokers, and users of heated tobacco products. This approach provided a plausible prediction of diminished reduction in lung function in response to THS use compared with continued smoking. The current approach may also present a basis for an integrated approach to testing and assessment of tobacco products for future regulatory decision-making.

Semi-quantitative health risk assessment of heavy metal dust exposure among nail technicians using the SQRA technique and Monte Carlo simulation.

Nail technology, including the application of artificial nails and nail care, is a developing sector of the global beauty industry. Nail technicians are exposed to a variety of chemical substances through inhalation, as they spend extended periods of time in close proximity to these materials. This study aimed to evaluate the semi-quantitative health risk of dust-containing heavy metals among nail technicians. This analytical descriptive study employed the risk assessment method provided by the Singapore Occupational Health Department to evaluate the health hazards of lead, cadmium, nickel, chromium, and manganese. Dust samples from nail filing were collected from the respiratory zone of 20 nail technicians following the NIOSH 7300 method. The samples were analyzed using ICP-OES instrumentation. Monte Carlo simulation was utilized to characterize the risk and its uncertainties. Manganese and cadmium had the highest and lowest mean concentrations, respectively. The risk scores of the metals ranked from highest to lowest were as follows: Ni>Cr>Cd>Mn>Pb. All five metals had risk rankings below 2.8, signifying a minimal risk level. Sensitivity analysis using Spearman's correlation coefficient demonstrated a positive relationship between concentration, daily hours of exposure, and the number of workdays per week with the risk score (RR) and exposure level (ER). Conversely, the variable of weekly working hours (W) showed a negative correlation with these parameters. Despite the low-risk level of the examined metals, continuous exposure and potential long-term effects on nail technicians warrant preventive measures. Recommendations include implementing local exhaust ventilation systems, using table fans, establishing work-rest cycles, wearing N95 dust masks, and using reputable and high-quality nail polishes.

Quantitative risk assessment of China's first liquid hydrogen refueling station.

Hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) are among the most important infrastructures for fuel cell vehicles. However, the safety issue of HRSs has become a key constraint to the wide application and development of hydrogen energy. This article presents a quantitative risk assessment of the first liquid HRS (LHRS) in China and conducts a comprehensive assessment in terms of both individual (IR) and societal risks (SRs). The results showed that both the IRs and SRs related to the LHRS exceeded the risk acceptance criteria. The rupture of the flexible hose of the dispenser and the leak from the compressor are the main contributors to these risks. On the other hand, implementing appropriate mitigation measures on the level of the LHRS dispenser and compressor, including the addition of breakaway couplings in the flexible hose of the dispenser, the installation of hydrogen detection sensors, the arrangement of automatic and manual emergency shutdown buttons, and the elevation of the compressor, is capable of reducing the risk of the LHRS to be within the risk acceptance criteria.

Holistic rockfall risk assessment in high mountain areas affected by seismic activity: Application to the Uspallata valley, Central Andes, Chile.

Over large regions exposed to natural disasters, cascading effects resulting from complex or concatenated natural processes may represent a large portion of total risk. Populated high-mountain environments are a major concern, and methods for large-scale quantitative risk analyses are urgently required to improve risk mitigation. This article presents a comprehensive quantitative rockfall risk assessment over a large archetypal valley of the Andean mountains, in Central Chile, which integrates a wide spectrum of elements at risk. Risk is expressed as an expected damage both in monetary terms and casualties, at different scales relevant for decision making. Notably, total rockfall risk is divided into its main drivers, which allows quantifying seismically induced rockfall risk. For this purpose, the local seismic hazard is quantified and the yield acceleration, that is, acceleration required to initiate rockfall, is determined at the regional scale. The probability of failure is thereafter derived in terms of annual frequency of rockfall initiation and integrated in the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) process. Our results show the significant role of seismic activity as the triggering mechanism of rockfalls, and highlight elements at risk that have a major contribution to the total risk. Eventually a sensitivity analysis is conducted to (i) assess the robustness of obtained risk estimates to the data and modeling choices and (ii) identify the most influential assumptions. Our approach evidences the feasibility of large-scale QRAs in sensitive environments and opens perspectives for refining QRAs in similar territories significantly affected by cascading effects and multihazards.

Quantitative risk assessment of skin sensitising pesticides: Clinical and toxicological considerations.

Like many other consumer and occupational products, pesticide formulations may contain active ingredients or co-formulants which have the potential to cause skin sensitisation. Currently, there is little evidence they do, but that could just reflect lack of clinical investigation. Consequently, it is necessary to carry out a safety evaluation process, quantifying risks so that they can be properly managed. A workshop on this topic in 2022 discussed how best to undertake quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for pesticide products, including learning from the experience of industries, notably cosmetics, that already undertake such a process routinely. It also addressed ways to remedy the matter of clinical investigation, even if only to demonstrate the absence of a problem. Workshop participants concluded that QRA for skin sensitisers in pesticide formulations was possible, but required careful justification of any safety factors applied, as well as improvements to the estimation of skin exposure. The need for regulations to stay abreast of the science was also noted. Ultimately, the success of any risk assessment/management for skin sensitisers must be judged by the clinical picture. Accordingly, the workshop participants encouraged the development of more active skin health monitoring amongst groups most exposed to the products.

Quantitative risk assessment for human Taenia solium taeniasis/cysticercosis exposure through consumption of pork in Mpwapwa District of Dodoma Region, Tanzania.

Background and Aim: Pig farming is a livelihood activity undertaken by many rural communities in Tanzania. However, pigs in rural communities become infected with Taenia solium, a zoonotic parasite leading to porcine cysticercosis (PCC). Thus, routine meat inspection is fundamental in ensuring that the meat consumed is PCC-free. However, routine meat inspection is constrained by low sensitivity as a diagnostic test. Regardless of its low sensitivity, at the local level, no substitute tool would potentially lead to meat being risk-free for human infection. This study aimed at quantifying the risk of humans getting exposed to T. solium taeniasis through the consumption of pork approved safe for human consumption by employing a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study employing a quantitative risk assessment technique was conducted to quantify the risk of human infection in Mpwapwa District through exposure to T. solium infection through consumption of officially inspected pork. The input parameters in this study were simulated in @risk software to obtain the risk of exposure and the risk factors for exposure to T. solium taeniasis. Results: The risk of one getting exposed to T. solium taeniasis/cysticercosis (TSTC) through consumption of pork approved for human consumption was found to be 0.018 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.00-0.0250). Likewise, the probability that a cyst is localized in a pork portion was found to be the most influencing input risk factor of getting exposed to TSTC. Furthermore, the probability of developing T. solium taeniasis was estimated to be 0.73605 (95% CI = 0-0.950) when infected undercooked pork portion is consumed and 0.99652 (95% CI = 0.98161-0.99908) from consuming raw pork portion. Likewise, about 47 (95% CI = 42-52) people who consumed undercooked pork and 26 (95% CI = 22-30) who consumed raw pork would get infected in Mpwapwa District per year. Conclusion: The results from this study are anticipated to create public awareness of the problem and promote the use of one-health approach in the control and prevention of the consumption of infected pork.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Oocyst Versus Bradyzoite Foodborne Transmission of Toxoplasma gondii in Brazil.

Toxoplasma gondii is a globally distributed zoonotic protozoan parasite. Infection with T. gondii can cause congenital toxoplasmosis in developing fetuses and acute outbreaks in the general population, and the disease burden is especially high in South America. Prior studies found that the environmental stage of T. gondii, oocysts, is an important source of infection in Brazil; however, no studies have quantified this risk relative to other parasite stages. We developed a Bayesian quantitative risk assessment (QRA) to estimate the relative attribution of the two primary parasite stages (bradyzoite and oocyst) that can be transmitted in foods to people in Brazil. Oocyst contamination in fruits and greens contributed significantly more to overall estimated T. gondii infections than bradyzoite-contaminated foods (beef, pork, poultry). In sensitivity analysis, treatment, i.e., cooking temperature for meat and washing efficiency for produce, most strongly affected the estimated toxoplasmosis incidence rate. Due to the lack of regional food contamination prevalence data and the high level of uncertainty in many model parameters, this analysis provides an initial estimate of the relative importance of food products. Important knowledge gaps for oocyst-borne infections were identified and can drive future studies to improve risk assessments and effective policy actions to reduce human toxoplasmosis in Brazil.

Occupational Health Risk Assessment for Wastewater Treatment and Reuse in Kanpur, India.

The treatment and reuse of wastewater for irrigation can lead to occupational health risks for sewage treatment plant (STP) workers and farmers. Sanitation Safety Planning (SSP) is an approach which can be used to measure and mitigate these risks. This paper explores what impact a novel secondary treatment process, consisting of an integrated permeate channel (IPC) membrane combined with a constructed wetland plus, has on the occupational health risks compared with the existing activated sludge wastewater treatment process and reuse system in Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh. A mixed methodology was used, which included key informant interviews, structured observations, and E. coli analysis. This data was used to undertake semi-quantitative risk assessments following the SSP approach. The novel secondary treatment increased the number of health risks which the STP workers were exposed to, but the severity of the risks was lower. This was due to the differences in treatment processes and infrastructures. The number of health risks for the farmers decreased both in number and severity. For their children, the severity of the health impacts decreased. These changes were due to the increase in the microbiological quality of the irrigation water. This study highlights the potential of using a semi-quantitative risk assessment to assess the occupational health impacts of using novel treatment technologies.

Semi-Quantitative Risk Assessment of African Swine Fever Virus Introduction in Outdoor Pig Farms.

In a previous study, a semi-quantitative risk assessment was developed to rank pig holdings in terms of likelihood of introducing African swine fever virus (ASFV) by assessing their compliance with biosecurity and exposure to geographical risk factors. The method was initially developed for confined pig holdings, but given that ASF is endemic in wild boar of several countries, we modified the approach to make it suitable for free-range farms as well. In the current study, a total of 41 outdoor pig farms were assessed in an area where exposure to wild boar was generally high (density from 2.3 to 10.3 wild boar per Km2). As expected, non-compliance with biosecurity measures was frequent in outdoor farms, and the frequency of non-compliance indicated that the absence of adequate separation of pigs from the external environment was the major weakness in the farms assessed. In 46.3% of them, there was no fence or, if present, it was not adequate to avoid contact with wild boar. However, the approach adopted proved to be suitable for identifying intervention priorities to mitigate the risk of ASFV spread in free-range pig herds and for identifying the weaknesses of individual farms, as recommended by EFSA in 2021, which suggests implementing tools to improve biosecurity by favoring higher-risk farms.

Assessing the risk of induction of skin sensitization to plant protection products: A quantitative approach.

Exposure to skin sensitizers is common and regulated in many industry sectors. For cosmetics, a risk-based approach has been implemented, focused on preventing the induction of sensitization. First, a No Expected Sensitization Induction Level (NESIL) is derived, then modified by Sensitization Assessment Factors (SAFs) to derive an Acceptable Exposure Level (AEL). The AEL is used in risk assessment, being compared with an estimated exposure dose, specific to the exposure scenario. Since in Europe there is increased concern regarding exposure towards potentially sensitizing pesticides via spray drift, we explore how existing practice can be modified to allow Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pesticides for bystanders and residents. NESIL derivation by the Local Lymph Node Assay (LLNA), the globally required in vivo assay for this endpoint, is reviewed alongside consideration of appropriate SAFs. Using a case study, the principle that the NESIL in µg/cm2 can be derived by multiplying LLNA EC3% figure by a factor of 250 is adopted. The NESIL is then reduced by an overall SAF of 25 to establish an exposure level below which there is minimal bystander and resident risk. Whilst this paper focuses on European risk assessment and management, the approach is generic and universally applicable.

[Quantitative risk assessment of occupational exposure to PCDD/Fs in the waste incineration industry].

Objective: To analyze the level of PCDD/Fs exposure of occupational workers in the waste incineration industry and explore the risk of occupational exposure. Methods: In September 2021, literature on environmental PCDD/Fs exposure in waste incineration plants published from the establishment of the database to February 10, 2021 was retrieved from CNKI database. A total of 1365 literatures were retrieved, and 7 met the criteria for inclusion. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk model was used to assess and analyze carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks of PCDD/Fs exposure among occupational workers in the waste incineration industry. Results: A total of 86 sampling sites were included in incineration plants in 7 regions. The study of Wuhan area showed that the concentration of working environment near the waste incinerator in the same factory was the highest, followed by the rest and office area in the factory. The concentration of PCDD/Fs in waste incinerators was the highest in Southwest China (4880.00-24880.00 pg TEQ/m(3)), and the lowest in Shenzhen (0.02-0.44 pg TEQ/m(3)). According to the cancer risk assessment, with the increase of exposure years, the risk of cancer increased. The highest risk of cancer was found in the waste incineration plants in Southwest China. When the exposure period was 1 year, the risk was moderate (22.40×10(-6)-114.20×10(-6)). When the exposure time was more than 5 years, the risk of cancer was high. In Jinan, workers working near the incinerator had a moderate risk of cancer after five years of exposure. In Zhejiang, workers were at medium risk of cancer after exposure for more than 20 years. Workers in Wuhan, Shanghai, Zhejiang Province, Shenzhen and the Pearl River Delta were still at low risk of cancer after 40 years of occupational exposure. HQ>1 of workers working near the waste incinerators in Jinan, Zhejiang Province and Southwest China, and the qualitative evaluation results showed that the non-carcinogenic risk was unacceptable. Conclusion: There are great differences in PCDD/Fs of occupational exposure in waste incineration industry, and the occupational exposure exceeding the occupational exposure limit has higher carcinogenic and non carcinogenic risks.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Salmonella in Ground Beef Products and the Resulting Impact of Risk Mitigation Strategies on Public Health.

Salmonellosis incidence rates have not declined over the last 15 years in the US despite a significant Salmonella prevalence reduction in meat and poultry products. Ground beef is currently regulated using only qualitative Salmonella criteria, and Salmonella enumeration values have been proposed as an alternative for implementing risk-based mitigation strategies to prevent illnesses. The purpose of this study was to develop a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model to estimate the annual number of salmonellosis cases attributable to the consumption of ground beef contaminated with Salmonella and investigate the impact of risk management strategies on public health. Model results estimated 8,980 (6,222-14,215, 90% CI) annual illnesses attributable to ground beef consumption in the US. The removal or diversion of highly contaminated ground beef production lots containing levels above 10 MPN/g (0.4%) and 1 MPN/g (2.4%) would result in a 13.6% (5,369-12,280, 90% CI) and 36.7% (3,939-8,990, 90% CI) reduction of annual salmonellosis illnesses, respectively. Frozen ground beef cooked at home was the consumption scenario of the highest risk for acquiring salmonellosis. Highly virulent serotypes accounted for 96.7% of annual illnesses despite only being present in 13.7% of ground beef samples. The removal of MDR Salmonella would result in decreased burden of disease with a 45% reduction in acute DALY annually. Focusing salmonellosis reduction efforts on removing highly contaminated ground beef lots, highly virulent Salmonella serotypes, and MDR Salmonella from not-ready-to-eat (NRTE) products were predicted to be effective risk prevention strategies.

Quantitative ecological risk assessment of oil spills: The case of the Fernando de Noronha Archipelago.

The upward trend in maritime oil transport increases the risk of oil spills, which have the potential to cause considerable damage to the marine environment. Therefore, a formal approach to quantify such risks is required. In mid-2010, a conservative Quantitative Ecological Risk Assessment based on population modeling, was performed in the Fernando de Noronha Archipelago. In this research, we enhance a previous assessment using the following models: (i) a Lagrangian approach to perform oil spill simulations, and (ii) the estimated frequency of accidents aggregating databases and expert opinions through a Bayesian-based method. Then, we quantify ecological risks as probabilities of half loss (i.e., 50 % population size decline) of a representative species of the archipelago's ecosystem. The results are summarized into risk categories to be straightforwardly communicated to the general public and provide reliable information that can aid decision-makers in coping with these events.

The use of animal by-products in a circular bioeconomy: Time for a TSE road map 3?

In 2005 and 2010, the European Commission (EC) published two subsequent 'Road Maps' to provide options for relaxation of the bans on the application of animal proteins in feed. Since then, the food production system has changed considerably and demands for more sustainability and circularity are growing louder. Many relaxations envisioned in the second Road Map have by now been implemented, such as the use of processed animal proteins (PAPs) from poultry in pig feed and vice versa. However, some legislative changes, in particular concerning insects, had not been foreseen. In this article, we present a new vision on legislation for increased and improved use of animal by-products. Six current legislative principles are discussed for the bans on animal by-products as feed ingredients: feed bans; categorization of farmed animals; prohibition unless explicitly approved; approved processing techniques, the categorization of animal by-products, and monitoring methods. We provide a proposal for new guiding principles and future directions, and several concrete options for further relaxations. We argue that biological nature of farmed animals in terms of dietary preferences should be better recognised, that legal zero-tolerance limits should be expanded if safe, and that legislation should be revised and simplified.

Quantitative risk assessment of Bacillus cereus in wet rice noodles from raw material to marketing phase.

From 2018, several foodborne diseases caused by the consumption of wet rice noodles contaminated with microorganisms have attracted the attention of consumers and surveillance departments. We explored the crucial risk factors for the contamination of Bacillus cereus during the various steps of the wet rice noodles production chain (from raw material to marketing phase). A total of 273 samples were collected in each corresponding production phase. The contamination level was quantitatively detected in the samples, and the corresponding temperature and time were recorded and analyzed using @Risk software. The quantitative detection results of raw material were determined as the initial contamination level in the model to predict the final contamination level and assess the key risk factors for B. cereus contamination in wet rice noodles. The model predicted that the final contamination level of B. cereus was in the range of -3.55 to 4.34 log CFU/g in 95% wet rice noodles at the marketing phase. The highest predicted contamination level was 6.28 log CFU/g, and the risk of exceeding the threshold was 0.80%. The model was verified to be valid for R2 > 0.96, and the predicted results could be used for reference. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis revealed that in addition to raw material, the key control factors were buffering temperature in the packaging delivery phase, transporting temperature and time from factory to marketing phase; their correlation coefficients (r) were 0.18, 0.16, and 0.15, respectively. Therefore, manufacturers need to adjust the current predelivery buffering and transporting mode. It is recommended to reduce the predelivery buffering temperature, and refrigerated trucks are preferred to control the proliferation of B. cereus in transported food, thus reducing the occurrence of foodborne diseases and improving the safety of food.

Risk assessment of Citripestis sagittiferella for the EU.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a risk assessment of Citripestis sagittiferella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), the citrus pulp borer, an oligophagous pest reported from South-East Asia and restricted to Citrus spp. The entry risk assessment focused on the citrus fruit pathway. Two scenarios were considered: scenario A0 (current practice) and A2 (additional post-harvest cold treatment). Based on the outputs of the entry model obtained in scenario A0, the median number of founder populations in the EU citrus-growing area is estimated to be slightly less than 10 per year (90%-uncertainty interval between about one entry per 180 years and 1,300 entries per year). The risk of entry and the simulated numbers of founder populations are orders of magnitude lower for scenario A2 compared to scenario A0. The key uncertainties in the entry model include transfer, the cold treatment effectiveness, the disaggregation factor and sorting. The simulated numbers of established populations are only slightly lower than the numbers of founder populations. As the probability of establishment has little impact on the number of established populations, it is not a major source of uncertainty, despite the lack of data on the thermal biology of the pest. The median lag period between establishment and spread is estimated to be slightly more than 1 year (90%-uncertainty interval between about 2 months and 33 months). After the lag period, the median spread rate by natural means (flying) and due to transport of harvested citrus fruit from orchards to packinghouses is estimated at about 100 km/year (90%-uncertainty interval between about 40 and 500 km/year). The main sources of uncertainties affecting the spread rate include the extent to which environmental factors could hamper the build-up of the populations and the lack of data on the spread rate at the origin. The median impact of C. sagittiferella in the EU citrus-growing area is estimated at about 10% of infested fruits among the harvested citrus fruits (90%-uncertainty interval between about 2% and 25%). Uncertainties affecting the impact assessment include the susceptibility of different Citrus species and cultivars.

Semi-quantitative risk assessment of African swine fever virus introduction in pig farms.

A semi-quantitative risk assessment was developed to classify pig farms in terms of the probability of introduction of African swine fever virus (ASFV). Following on-farm data collection via a specific checklist, we applied a modified failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to calculate the risk priority codes (RPC's), indicating increasing risk levels ranging from 1 to 5. The importance of biosecurity measures was attributed by experts. To consider geographic risk factors, we classified pig farms based on local density of farmed pigs, and on the estimated wild boar population density. The combination of RPC's with geographical risk factors resulted into a final ranking of pig farms in terms of the risk of ASFV introduction. Furthermore, the estimation of frequency and levels of non-compliance with biosecurity measures was used to identify weak points in risk prevention at farm level. The outcome of the risk assessment was affected by choices in assigning non-compliance scores and importance to specific components of biosecurity. The method was applied in 60 commercial farms in major pig production areas in Italy. Furthermore, we applied a reduced version of our checklist in 12 non-commercial/small commercial (≤20 pigs) farms in the northern Apennines. In commercial farms, highest RPC's were obtained for biosecurity measures associated with personnel practices and farm buildings/planimetry. Intervention should be addressed to training of personnel on biosecurity and ASF, to avoid contacts with other pig herds, and to improve practices in the entrance into the farm. Sharing trucks with other farms, and loading/unloading of pigs were other weak points. Fencing was classified as insufficient in 70% of the commercial farms. Among these farms, breeding units were characterised by the lowest risk of ASFV introduction (although differences among median ranks were not statistically significant: P-value = 0.07; Kruskal-Wallis test), and increasing herd size was not significantly correlated with a higher risk (Kendall's τ = -0.13; P-value = 0.14). Density of farmed pig was greatest in the main pig production area in northern Italy. Conversely, exposure to wild boars was greatest for non-commercial/small commercial farms on the Apennines, which were also characterised by non-compliance with critical biosecurity measures.