A multidisciplinary approach to estimating wolf population size for long-term conservation.

The wolf (Canis lupus) is among the most controversial of wildlife species. Abundance estimates are required to inform public debate and policy decisions, but obtaining them at biologically relevant scales is challenging. We developed a system for comprehensive population estimation across the Italian alpine region (100,000 km2 ), involving 1513 trained operators representing 160 institutions. This extensive network allowed for coordinated genetic sample collection and landscape-level spatial capture-recapture analyses that transcended administrative boundaries to produce the first estimates of key parameters for wolf population status assessment. Wolf abundance was estimated at 952 individuals (95% credible interval 816-1120) and 135 reproductive units (i.e., packs) (95% credible interval 112-165). We also estimated that mature individuals accounted for 33-45% of the entire population. The monitoring effort was spatially estimated thereby overcoming an important limitation of citizen science data. This is an important approach for promoting wolf-human coexistence based on wolf abundance monitoring and an endorsement of large-scale harmonized conservation practices.

Una estrategia multidisciplinaria para la estimación del tamaño poblacional de los lobos para la conservación a largo plazo Resumen El lobo (Canis lupus) está entre las especies de fauna más controversiales. Se requieren estimaciones de abundancia para informar al debate público y las decisiones políticas, pero es un reto obtenerlos en escalas con relevancia biológica. Desarrollamos un sistema para la estimación completa de la población en la región alpina de Italia (100,000 km2 ), con la participación de 1,513 operadores entrenados que representan a 160 instituciones. Esta red extensa permitió una colecta coordinada de muestras genéticas y análisis de captura-recaptura espacial que trascendieron las fronteras administrativas para así producir las primeras estimaciones de los parámetros clave para la evaluación del estado de la población de los lobos. Se estimó la abundancia en 952 individuos (95% intervalo de confianza 816-1120) y 135 unidades reproductivas (es decir, manadas) (95% intervalo de confianza 112-165). También estimamos que los individuos maduros representaban el 33-45% de toda la población. El esfuerzo de monitoreo se estimó espacialmente, por lo que sobrepasó una limitación importante de la ciencia ciudadana. Esta estrategia es importante para promover la coexistencia entre lobos y humanos con base en el monitoreo de la abundancia y el apoyo a las prácticas armonizadas de conservación a gran escala.

Ecology of large felids and their prey in small reserves of the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico.

Jaguars and pumas are top-predator species in the Neotropics that are threatened by habitat destruction, illegal poaching of their body parts and their favored prey, and by the human-wildlife conflicts that arise when predators attack livestock. Much of the remaining felid habitat in the Americas is in protected nature reserves that are too small and isolated to support local populations. Surrounding forests therefore play a vital role in felid conservation. Successful long-term conservation of these two felids requires evidence-based knowledge of their biological and ecological requirements. We studied population distributions of jaguars and pumas and their prey in and between two small, private reserves of the Northern Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico, with areas of 25 and 43 km2. During 2 years of camera trapping (2015 and 2016), we detected 21 jaguars, from which we estimated an average space requirement of 28-45 km2/individual. Dietary niche overlap exceeded random expectation. The most frequently occurring prey items in jaguar and puma diets were collared peccary and deer. Jaguar also favored nine-banded armadillos and white-nosed coati, while puma favored canids. Both felids avoided ocellated turkey. Overall, diet of jaguars was less species-rich, but similar in niche breadth, to that of pumas. A fluid use of space by both species, in 2015 tending toward mutual attraction and in 2016 toward partial exclusion of pumas by jaguars, combined with the high dietary overlap, is consistent with a dominance hierarchy facilitating coexistence. Jaguars and pumas favor the same prey as the people in local communities who hunt, which likely will intensify human-wildlife impacts when prey become scarce. We conclude that even small reserves play an important role in increasing the continuity of habitat for prey and large felids, whose generalist habits suppress interspecific competition for increasingly limiting prey that are largely shared between them and humans.

Los jaguares y pumas son las principales especies depredadoras del Neotrópico. Se encuentran amenazados por la destrucción de su hábitat, la caza furtiva de sus partes corporales, así como de sus presas favoritas, y por los impactos entre humanos y vida silvestre que surgen cuando estas especies atacan al ganado. Gran parte del hábitat protegido de los felinos restante en las Américas lo constituyen reservas naturales que son demasiado pequeñas y aisladas para por sí mismas sustentar las poblaciones locales de estas especies. Por lo tanto, los bosques circundantes juegan un papel vital para la conservación de estos felinos. La conservación exitosa a largo plazo de estas dos especies de felinos necesita conocimiento basado en evidencia de sus requerimientos biológicos y ecológicos. Estudiamos la distribución de poblaciones de jaguares y pumas, y sus presas, en dos pequeñas áreas protegidas privadas del norte de la península de Yucatán, México, con áreas de 25 y 43 km2, y en el área no protegida de 250 km2 que se encuentra entre ellas. Durante un estudio de foto-trampeo de dos años (2015 y 2016), detectamos 21 jaguares, a partir de los cuales estimamos requerimientos espaciales de 28­45 km2/individuo en promedio. La superposición entre nichos alimentarios superó las expectativas aleatorias. Las presas más frecuentes en las dietas del jaguar y el puma fueron el pecarí de collar y los venados. El jaguar también favoreció al armadillo de nueve bandas y coatí de nariz blanca, mientras que el puma favoreció a los cánidos. Ambos felinos evitaron al pavo ocelado. En general, la dieta de los jaguares presentó menor riqueza específica, pero similar amplitud de nicho a la de los pumas. Un uso fluido del espacio por parte de ambas especies hizo que en un año tendieran a tener atracción mutua y en otro a una exclusión parcial por parte de los jaguares a los pumas, lo cual, en combinación con la alta superposición alimentaria, es consistente con una jerarquía de dominancia que facilita la convivencia. Los jaguares y los pumas favorecieron las mismas presas que la gente que caza en las comunidades locales, lo que probablemente intensificará los impactos entre humanos y vida silvestre cuando las presas escaseen. Concluimos que incluso las reservas pequeñas desempeñan un papel importante en el aumento de la continuidad del hábitat para presas y grandes felinos, cuyos hábitos generalistas suprimen la competencia inter-específica por presas cada vez más limitadas que en gran parte comparten con los humanos.

Método de captura y recaptura: una experiencia de su aplicación para determinar la incidencia de diabetes gestacional / Capture and recapture method: anexperience of itsapplication to estimatetheincidence of gestational diabetes

Los métodos de captura y recaptura (MCR) se emplean en la estimación de poblaciones mediante la utilización de diferentes fuentes de datos, disponibles e incompletas, que registran por separado un mismo evento. En esta metodología, las fuentes son utilizadas para extrapolar el número de individuos no registrados, usando la información recopilada sobre los individuos sí registrados. Este artículo describe todos los pasos de su aplicación práctica, a partir de un ejemplo de estimación de la incidencia de diabetes gestacional en una institución, a partir de cinco fuentes documentales. (AU)

Capture-recapture (CRM) methods are widely used to estimate populations by using different data sources, available and incomplete, that record the same event separately. In these methods, the available sources are used to extrapolate the number of unregistered individuals, using the information collected on the individuals that are registered. This article describes all the steps of its practical application, based on an example of estimating the incidence of gestational diabetes in an institution based on five documentary sources. (AU)

Prevalencia de la epilepsia en pacientes menores de 15 años que consumen antiepilépticos en el policlínico Jimmy Hirzel de Bayamo / Prevalence of epilepsy in patients under 15 years of age who use antiepileptic drugs at the Jimmy Hirzel polyclinic in Bayamo / Prevalência de epilepsia em pacientes menores de 15 anos que usam medicamentos antiepilépticos na policlínica Jimmy Hirzel em Bayamo

RESUMEN Introducción: la epilepsia constituye una de las enfermedades neurológicas crónicas más comunes en niños. Objetivo: determinar la prevalencia general y según edad, sexo y etiología de la epilepsia en el área de salud del policlínico Jimmy Hirzel del municipio Bayamo, provincia de Granma en los pacientes menores de 15 años. Métodos: se realizó una investigación descriptiva y transversal, utilizándose entre las técnicas estadísticas el método de captura-recaptura. Resultados: la tasa de prevalencia general encontrada fue de 4,54 (IC 95%, 4,33-4,74). Conclusiones: se concluyó que la prevalencia de la epilepsia en el área de salud estudiada presenta valores similares a los encontrados en países desarrollados.

ABSTRACT Introduction: epilepsy is one of the most common chronic neurological diseases in children. Objective: to determine the general prevalence and according to age, sex and etiology of epilepsy in the health area of the Jimmy Hirzel polyclinic of the Bayamo municipality, Granma province in patients under 15 years of age. Methods: a descriptive and cross-sectional investigation was carried out, using the capture-recapture method among the statistical techniques. Results: the general prevalence rate found was 4.54 (95% CI, 4.33-4.74). Conclusions: it was concluded that the prevalence of epilepsy in the health area studied presents values similar to those found in developed countries.

RESUMO Introdução: a epilepsia é uma das doenças neurológicas crônicas mais comuns em crianças. Objetivo: determinar a prevalência geral e de acordo com a idade, sexo e etiologia da epilepsia na área de saúde da policlínica Jimmy Hirzel do município de Bayamo, província de Granma em pacientes menores de 15 anos. Métodos: foi realizada uma investigação descritiva e transversal, utilizando o método de captura-recaptura dentre as técnicas estatísticas. Resultados: a taxa de prevalência geral encontrada foi de 4,54 (IC 95%, 4,33-4,74). Conclusões: concluiu-se que a prevalência de epilepsia na área da saúde estudada apresenta valores semelhantes aos encontrados em países desenvolvidos.

Estimation of bat colony size even with low recapture rates: an example based on the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model in Oaxaca, México / Estimación del tamaño de colonia en murciélagos incluso con bajas tasas de recaptura: un ejemplo basado en el modelo Cormack-Jolly-Seber en Oaxaca, México

Introduction: Group or colony size is an important variable that is related to biological, ecological, and conservation aspects of bats. However, estimating the size of each colony or group in roosts used by more than one species is particularly difficult, especially when recapture rates are very low (< 10 %). Objective: Estimate the colony size of 14 species of bats: one emballonurid, one natalid, four mormoopids, seven phyllostomids, and one vespertilionid, which roosted throughout one year (July 2016 to June 2017) in a mine and two caves -Cerro Huatulco and El Apanguito- in the Sierra Sur and Costa of the state of Oaxaca. Methods: We constructed capture-recapture histories per species and roost, and for species for which we obtained recaptures that represented at least 10 % of the captures, we used the probabilistic Cormack-Jolly-Seber model. In the case of species with no recaptures or with a recapture proportion lower than 10 %, we estimated the number of individuals per roost by applying the same proportion between the number of captured specimens and the estimated number for species with recaptures greater than 10 % and that they belonged to the same family or trophic guild. Results: The total estimated number of bats in the three studied roosts was 20 105. The highest colony size estimates were for the mormoopids Pteronotus fulvus and P. mesoamericanus from El Apanguito and P. fulvus from Cerro Huatulco, with 6 609, 4 092 and 2 212 individuals, respectively. Conclusions: The methodology used in this study allowed estimating the colony size for all registered species, even though only for 21.42 % the recapture rates were greater than 10 %. Therefore, we consider that this methodology represents a viable alternative to estimate colony size in other roosts. This information, together with the high species richness and importance for reproductive processes, allow us to propose these sites as Bat Protection and Conservation Areas in Mexico.

Introducción: El tamaño del grupo o colonia es una variable importante que está relacionada con los aspectos biológicos, ecológicos y de conservación de los murciélagos. Sin embargo, estimar el tamaño de cada colonia o grupo en refugios utilizados por más de una especie es particularmente difícil, especialmente cuando las tasas de recaptura son muy bajas (< 10 %). Objetivo: Estimar el tamaño de la colonia de 14 especies de murciélagos: un emballonúrido, un natálido, cuatro mormópidos, siete filostómidos y un vespertiliónido, que se refugiaron durante un año (Julio 2016 a Junio 2017) en una mina y dos cuevas -Cerro Huatulco y El Apanguito- en la Sierra Sur y Costa del estado de Oaxaca. Métodos: Construimos historias de captura-recaptura por especie y refugio, y para las especies que se obtuvieron recapturas que representaban al menos el 10 % de las capturas, utilizamos un modelo probabilístico de Cormack-Jolly-Seber para estimar el tamaño de sus colonias. En el caso de especies sin recapturas o con una proporción de recaptura inferior al 10 %, estimamos el número de individuos por refugio aplicando la misma proporción entre el número de individuos capturados y el número total estimado para las especies con recapturas mayores del 10 % y que pertenecieran a la misma familia o gremio trófico registradas con la mayor similitud ecológica y con suficientes recapturas para aplicar el modelo Cormack-Jolly-Seber. Resultados: El número total estimado de murciélagos en los tres refugios de estudio fue de 20 105. Las estimaciones de tamaño de colonia más altos fueron para los mormópidos Pteronotus fulvus y P. mesoamericanus de El Apanguito y P. fulvus en Cerro Huatulco, con 6 609, 4 092 and 2 212 individuos, respectivamente. Conclusiones: La metodología utilizada en este estudio permitió estimar el tamaño de la colonia para todas las especies registradas, a pesar de que solo para el 21.42 % las tasas de recaptura fueron superiores al 10 %. Por lo tanto, consideramos que esta metodología representa una alternativa viable para estimar el tamaño de colonia en otros refugios. Esta información, junto con los procesos de alta riqueza de especies y reproducción que tienen lugar en esta área, permiten proponer estos sitios como áreas de protección y conservación de murciélagos en México.

The abundance of false killer whale, Pseudorca crassidens (Cetartiodactyla: Delphinidae) in coastal waters of Golfo Dulce and Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica / Abundancia de la falsa orca, Pseudorca crassidens (Cetartiodactyla: Delphinidae) en las aguas costeras del Golfo Dulce y la Península de Osa, Costa Rica

Introduction: False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens) is a tropical and subtropical social species that live in groups with individuals of mixed ages and sex classes. False killer whales have been documented since the late 1990s in Southwestern Costa Rica. Objective: To estimate the abundance of false killer whales in Osa Peninsula waters. Methods: Cetacean surveys off the Osa Peninsula Waters (OPW), Costa Rica, yielded opportunistic encounters with false killer whales in Drake Bay and Caño Island (2001-2019) and observations during formal surveys in Golfo Dulce (2005-2015). Photo-identification data was analyzed using capture-mark-recapture models in the study area, through an open population (POPAN) framework, considering the effect of time on the parameters apparent survival and capture probability, producing an abundance estimate for a superpopulation in the entire study area. Results: False killer whale abundance in OPW is characterized by a small population size of no more than 100 individuals, complemented by a very low probability of encounter and a contrasting high apparent survival. Conclusions: This population estimate should be taken as conservative, however, the small population size of less than 100 individuals should be considered vulnerable, in contrast to the increasing anthropogenic impacts in the coastal seascape. We argue the potential occurrence of population units along the coastal seascape of the Pacific littoral and oceanic island-associated units at Isla del Coco.

Introducción: La falsa orca es una especie gregaria tropical y subtropical, que vive en grupos con individuos de diferentes clases de edad y sexo. La falsa orca ha sido documentada en el sur-oeste de Costa Rica desde finales de los 90s. Objetivo: Evaluar el uso de hábitat de la especie en términos de abundancia. Métodos: Observaciones en campo para cetáceos en aguas de la Península de Osa (APO), incluyen encuentros oportunísimos en Bahía de Drake y la Isla del Caño (2001-2019), así como observaciones directas de Pseudorca crassidens, durante muestreos formales en Golfo Dulce (2005-2015). Se analizaron datos sobre foto-identificación utilizando modelos de marcaje captura y recaptura, considerando un enfoque para población abierta (POPAN), el cual considera el efecto del tiempo en los parámetros demográficos: supervivencia aparente (ф) y probabilidad de captura (P), produciendo un estimado de abundancia que comprende toda la superpoblación en el área de estudio. Resultados: La abundancia de la falsa orca en APO se caracteriza por un tamaño poblacional pequeño, de menos de 100 individuos, que se complementa por una muy baja probabilidad de captura, en contraste con una supervivencia aparente alta. Conclusión: Este estimado debe tratarse como conservativo, no obstante, el pequeño número poblacional, de menos de 100 individuos debe considerarse como vulnerable, en contraste con el incremento del impacto antropogénico del paisaje marino costero. Se discute la posible presencia de unidades poblacionales en el paisaje costero del litoral Pacífico y de unidades oceánicas asociadas a la Isla del Coco.

Reserve design to optimize functional connectivity and animal density.

Ecological distance-based spatial capture-recapture models (SCR) are a promising approach for simultaneously estimating animal density and connectivity, both of which affect spatial population processes and ultimately species persistence. We explored how SCR models can be integrated into reserve-design frameworks that explicitly acknowledge both the spatial distribution of individuals and their space use resulting from landscape structure. We formulated the design of wildlife reserves as a budget-constrained optimization problem and conducted a simulation to explore 3 different SCR-informed optimization objectives that prioritized different conservation goals by maximizing the number of protected individuals, reserve connectivity, and density-weighted connectivity. We also studied the effect on our 3 objectives of enforcing that the space-use requirements of individuals be met by the reserve for individuals to be considered conserved (referred to as home-range constraints). Maximizing local population density resulted in fragmented reserves that would likely not aid long-term population persistence, and maximizing the connectivity objective yielded reserves that protected the fewest individuals. However, maximizing density-weighted connectivity or preemptively imposing home-range constraints on reserve design yielded reserves of largely spatially compact sets of parcels covering high-density areas in the landscape with high functional connectivity between them. Our results quantify the extent to which reserve design is constrained by individual home-range requirements and highlight that accounting for individual space use in the objective and constraints can help in the design of reserves that balance abundance and connectivity in a biologically relevant manner.

Diseño de Reservas para Optimizar la Conectividad Funcional y la Densidad Animal Resumen Los modelos de captura-recaptura espacial (CRE) basados en distancias ecológicas son un método prometedor para estimar la densidad animal y la conectividad, las cuales afectan los procesos poblacionales espaciales y, en última instancia, la persistencia de las especies. Exploramos cómo se puede integrar a los modelos CRE en los marcos de diseño de reserva que explícitamente reconocen tanto la distribución espacial de los individuos como su uso del espacio resultante de la estructura del paisaje. Formulamos el diseño de reservas de vida silvestre como un problema de optimización de presupuesto limitado y realizamos una simulación para explorar 3 diferentes objetivos de optimización informados por CRE que priorizaron diferentes metas de conservación mediante la maximización del número de individuos protegidos; la conectividad de la reserva y la conectividad ponderada por la densidad. También estudiamos el efecto sobre nuestros objetivos de hacer que los requerimientos individuales de uso de espacio fuesen satisfechos por la reserva de manera que se pudiese considerar que los individuos estaban protegidos (referidos como restricciones de rango de hogar). La maximización de la densidad de la población local resultó en reservas fragmentadas que probablemente no contribuyan a la persistencia de la población a largo plazo, mientras que la maximización de la conectividad produjo reservas que protegían al menor número de individuos. Sin embargo, la maximización de la conectividad ponderada por la densidad o la imposición preventiva de restricciones de rango de hogar en el diseño de reservas produjo reservas compuestas por conjuntos de parcelas mayormente compactas espacialmente que cubrían áreas de densidad alta en el paisaje con alta conectividad funcional entre ellas. Nuestros resultados cuantifican la extensión a la cual el diseño de reservas esta limitado por los requerimientos de rango de hogar individuales y resaltan que la consideración del uso de espacio individual en el objetivo y limitaciones puede ayudar al diseño de reservas que equilibren la abundancia y la conectividad de manera biológicamente relevante.

Estimation of a closed population size of tadpoles in temporary pond / Estimativa do tamanho da população fechada de girinos em lagoas temporárias

Abstract The practice of capture-recapture to estimate the diversity is well known to many animal groups, however this practice in the larval phase of anuran amphibians is incipient. We aimed at evaluating the Lincoln estimator, Venn diagram and Bayes theorem in the inference of population size of a larval phase anurocenose from lotic environment. The adherence of results was evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The marking of tadpoles for later recapture and methods measurement was made with eosin methylene blue. When comparing the results of Lincoln-Petersen estimator corresponding to the Venn diagram and Bayes theorem, we detected percentage differences per sampling, i.e., the proportion of sampled anuran genera is kept among the three methods, although the values are numerically different. By submitting these results to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test we have found no significant differences. Therefore, no matter the estimator, the measured value is adherent and estimates the total population. Together with the marking methodology, which did not change the behavior of tadpoles, the present study helps to fill the need of more studies on larval phase of amphibians in Brazil, especially in semi-arid northeast.

Resumo A prática de captura-recaptura para a estimação da diversidade é bem conhecida para diversos grupos animais, porém na fase larvar de anfíbios anuros essa prática é incipiente. Objetivamos avaliar os métodos do estimador de Lincoln, diagrama de Venn e o teorema de Bayes na inferência do tamanho populacional de uma anurocenose em fase larvar de ambiente lótico. A aderência dos resultados foi avaliada através do teste de Kolmogorov-Smirnov. A marcação dos girinos para posterior recaptura e aferição dos métodos foi feita com eosina de azul de metileno. Ao compararmos os resultados do estimador de Lincoln que corresponde com o do diagrama de Venn e com o teorema de Bayes detectamos diferenças percentuais por amostragem, isto é, a manutenção da proporção dos gêneros de anuros amostrados é mantida entre os três métodos, embora com valores numericamente diferentes. Ao submetermos esses resultados ao teste Kolmogorov-Smirnov não encontramos diferenças significativas. Logo, qualquer que seja o estimador o valor aferido é aderente e estima a população total. Aliado à metodologia de marcação que não alterou o comportamento dos girinos, o presente estudo ajuda a preencher a necessidade de mais estudos na fase larvar dos anfíbios no Brasil, em especial no semiárido nordestino.

Estimating abundance without recaptures of marked pallid sturgeon in the Mississippi River.

Abundance estimates are essential for assessing the viability of populations and the risks posed by alternative management actions. An effort to estimate abundance via a repeated mark-recapture experiment may fail to recapture marked individuals. We devised a method for obtaining lower bounds on abundance in the absence of recaptures for both panmictic and spatially structured populations. The method assumes few enough recaptures were expected to be missed by random chance. The upper Bayesian credible limit on expected recaptures allows probabilistic statements about the minimum number of individuals present in the population. We applied this method to data from a 12-year survey of pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) in the lower and middle Mississippi River (U.S.A.). None of the 241 individuals marked was recaptured in the survey. After accounting for survival and movement, our model-averaged estimate of the total abundance of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old in the study area had a 1%, 5%, or 25% chance of being <4,600, 7,000, or 15,000, respectively. When we assumed fish were distributed in proportion to survey catch per unit effort, the farthest downstream reach in the survey hosted at least 4.5-15 fish per river kilometer (rkm), whereas the remainder of the reaches in the lower and middle Mississippi River hosted at least 2.6-8.5 fish/rkm for all model variations examined. The lower Mississippi River had an average density of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old of at least 3.0-9.8 fish/rkm. The choice of Bayesian prior was the largest source of uncertainty we considered but did not alter the order of magnitude of lower bounds. Nil-recapture estimates of abundance are highly uncertain and require careful communication but can deliver insights from experiments that might otherwise be considered a failure.

Manejo perioperatorio de pacientes usuarios de antidepresivos / Perioperative management of patients using antidepressants

El uso de antidepresivos en el perioperatorio es muy frecuente, y la práctica clínica indica que los pacientes usuarios de antidepresivos que son sometidos a cirugía tienen un riesgo perioperatorio aumentado. No existen en la actualidad guías clínicas basadas en la evidencia que orienten el manejo de este tipo de pacientes, por lo que las recomendaciones se basan en las escasas revisiones sistemáticas y metaanálisis disponibles, reportes de casos y opinión de expertos, que en muchos casos resultan controversiales. La decisión de mantener o suspender la medicación antidepresiva implica considerar los riesgos tanto desde el punto de vista fisiológico (características generales del paciente, riesgos asociados al antidepresivo utilizado, la cirugía propiamente como tal, la interacción con fármacos frecuentemente utilizados en el perioperatorio, entre otros) como desde el punto de vista psiquiátrico (riesgo de síndrome de retirada, recaída de la enfermedad psiquiátrica, intentos suicidas), por lo que la decisión debe ser tomada idealmente de forma multidisciplinaria entre cirujanos, anestesiólogos y psiquiatras, con la idea de confeccionar un plan quirúrgico, anestésico y de manejo perioperatorio seguro para el paciente.

Antidepressant use in the perioperative is a common practice, and clinical evidence shows that surgical patients using antidepressants have an increased perioperative risk. There are not evidence-based guidelines for the perioperative management of these patients, and recommendations are based on few systematic reviews and meta-analysis, case reports and expert opinion, which in many cases are controversial. The decision to continue or discontinue the medication involves considering general patient characteristics, risks associated with the antidepressant used, type of surgery, interaction with drugs commonly used in the perioperative, risk of withdrawal symptoms, relapse of psychiatric disease and suicide risk, so decision should be made between surgeons, anesthesiologists and psychiatrists, in order to design a safe management plan for the patient who undergo surgery.

Toward accurate and precise estimates of lion density.

Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to understanding ecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital to conservation because wildlife authorities rely on estimates to make decisions. However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide-ranging carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not been widely adapted to African carnivores, such as lions (Panthera leo). Although abundance indices for lions may produce poor inferences, they continue to be used to estimate density and inform management and policy. We used sighting data from a 3-month survey and adapted a Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) model to estimate spatial lion density in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and surrounding conservancies in Kenya. Our unstructured spatial capture-recapture sampling design incorporated search effort to explicitly estimate detection probability and density on a fine spatial scale, making our approach robust in the context of varying detection probabilities. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 17.08 (posterior SD 1.310) lions >1 year old/100 km2 , and the sex ratio was estimated at 2.2 females to 1 male. Our modeling framework and narrow posterior SD demonstrate that SECR methods can produce statistically rigorous and precise estimates of population parameters, and we argue that they should be favored over less reliable abundance indices. Furthermore, our approach is flexible enough to incorporate different data types, which enables robust population estimates over relatively short survey periods in a variety of systems. Trend analyses are essential to guide conservation decisions but are frequently based on surveys of differing reliability. We therefore call for a unified framework to assess lion numbers in key populations to improve management and policy decisions.

Estimation of a closed population size of tadpoles in temporary pond

Abstract The practice of capture-recapture to estimate the diversity is well known to many animal groups, however this practice in the larval phase of anuran amphibians is incipient. We aimed at evaluating the Lincoln estimator, Venn diagram and Bayes theorem in the inference of population size of a larval phase anurocenose from lotic environment. The adherence of results was evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The marking of tadpoles for later recapture and methods measurement was made with eosin methylene blue. When comparing the results of Lincoln-Petersen estimator corresponding to the Venn diagram and Bayes theorem, we detected percentage differences per sampling, i.e., the proportion of sampled anuran genera is kept among the three methods, although the values are numerically different. By submitting these results to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test we have found no significant differences. Therefore, no matter the estimator, the measured value is adherent and estimates the total population. Together with the marking methodology, which did not change the behavior of tadpoles, the present study helps to fill the need of more studies on larval phase of amphibians in Brazil, especially in semi-arid northeast.

Resumo A prática de captura-recaptura para a estimação da diversidade é bem conhecida para diversos grupos animais, porém na fase larvar de anfíbios anuros essa prática é incipiente. Objetivamos avaliar os métodos do estimador de Lincoln, diagrama de Venn e o teorema de Bayes na inferência do tamanho populacional de uma anurocenose em fase larvar de ambiente lótico. A aderência dos resultados foi avaliada através do teste de Kolmogorov-Smirnov. A marcação dos girinos para posterior recaptura e aferição dos métodos foi feita com eosina de azul de metileno. Ao compararmos os resultados do estimador de Lincoln que corresponde com o do diagrama de Venn e com o teorema de Bayes detectamos diferenças percentuais por amostragem, isto é, a manutenção da proporção dos gêneros de anuros amostrados é mantida entre os três métodos, embora com valores numericamente diferentes. Ao submetermos esses resultados ao teste Kolmogorov-Smirnov não encontramos diferenças significativas. Logo, qualquer que seja o estimador o valor aferido é aderente e estima a população total. Aliado à metodologia de marcação que não alterou o comportamento dos girinos, o presente estudo ajuda a preencher a necessidade de mais estudos na fase larvar dos anfíbios no Brasil, em especial no semiárido nordestino.

Ecología poblacional de Heteromys pictus (Rodentia: Heteromyidae), en un bosque tropical caducifolio con perturbación humana, en la costa de Oaxaca, México / Population ecology of Heteromys pictus (Rodentia: Heteromyidae), in a tropical deciduous forest with human disturbance, in Oaxaca coast, Mexico

Resumen:Los ratones espinosos de abazones Liomys y Heteromys son roedores granívoros que se distribuyen en bosques tropicales secos y en matorral espinoso a lo largo de tierras bajas del Pacífico y en regiones xerófilas en la meseta de México. Analizamos la dinámica poblacional del ratón espinoso de abazones Heteromys pictus en la costa de Oaxaca, México, en dos sitios de bosque tropical caducifolio con diferente grado de perturbación humana: ZPP = zona poco perturbada, y ZMP = zona con mayor perturbación. Se establecieron dos cuadros en cada área con 66 estaciones de trampeo; se utilizó el método de captura-recaptura durante 12 periodos de muestreo. La densidad poblacional se estimó utilizando el método del Número Mínimo de Individuos Conocidos Vivos (NMIV). Se capturaron 706 individuos, 290 para la ZPP y 416 para la ZMP. La densidad poblacional fluctuó entre 28 y 142 ind./ha para ambas zonas; sin embargo esta fue mayor para la ZMP (54 a 142 ind./ha). La densidad poblacional de ambas zonas aumentó durante la temporada de lluvia y coincidió con el mayor reclutamiento. Se registró actividad reproductiva a lo largo de todo el estudio en ambas zonas, pero fue mayor para la ZMP. La proporción de sexos fue de 1:1 en la ZPP, mientras que en la ZMP fue de 1: 0.75. En la ZMP encontramos una mayor densidad poblacional y actividad reproductiva en las hembras. Estos resultados sugieren que H. pictus prefiere la ZMP, lo que indica que en este lugar la especie no es afectada significativamente por la perturbación humana.

Abstract:Spiny pocket mice Liomys and Heteromys are forest-dwelling granivorous rodents distributed in seasonally dry forest or thorn scrub along the Pacific low- lands or xeric regions in the Mexican Plateau. We analyzed the population dynamics of the spiny pocket mouse Heteromys pictus, in the coast of Oaxaca, Mexico, in two sites of tropical deciduous forest with different degrees of disturbance: ZPP = less disturbed site, and ZMP = more disturbed site. Two plots were established in each area with 66 trap stations; we used the capture-recapture method and trapping for 12 periods for one year. Population density was estimated using the method of Minimum Number of Individuals Known Alive (MNKA). We captured 706 individuals, 290 for the ZPP and 416 for the ZMP. The population density ranged from 28 to 142 ind./ ha for both zones, but it was higher for the ZMP (54 against 142 ind./ha). The population density for both areas increased during the rainy season and coincided with the increased recruitment of adults. Reproductive activity occurred throughout the study period in both areas, but it was higher for the ZMP. The sex ratio in the ZPP was 1:1 while in the ZMP was 1:0.75. In the ZMP we found a higher population density and reproductive activity in females, compared to the ZPP. These results suggest that H. pictus prefers the ZMP, indicating that the species is not significantly affected by human disturbance in the studied location. Rev. Biol. Trop. 64 (4): 1415-1429. Epub 2016 December 01.

Dynamics of a low-density tiger population in Southeast Asia in the context of improved law enforcement.

Recovering small populations of threatened species is an important global conservation strategy. Monitoring the anticipated recovery, however, often relies on uncertain abundance indices rather than on rigorous demographic estimates. To counter the severe threat from poaching of wild tigers (Panthera tigris), the Government of Thailand established an intensive patrolling system in 2005 to protect and recover its largest source population in Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary. Concurrently, we assessed the dynamics of this tiger population over the next 8 years with rigorous photographic capture-recapture methods. From 2006 to 2012, we sampled across 624-1026 km(2) with 137-200 camera traps. Cameras deployed for 21,359 trap days yielded photographic records of 90 distinct individuals. We used closed model Bayesian spatial capture-recapture methods to estimate tiger abundances annually. Abundance estimates were integrated with likelihood-based open model analyses to estimate rates of annual and overall rates of survival, recruitment, and changes in abundance. Estimates of demographic parameters fluctuated widely: annual density ranged from 1.25 to 2.01 tigers/100 km(2) , abundance from 35 to 58 tigers, survival from 79.6% to 95.5%, and annual recruitment from 0 to 25 tigers. The number of distinct individuals photographed demonstrates the value of photographic capture-recapture methods for assessments of population dynamics in rare and elusive species that are identifiable from natural markings. Possibly because of poaching pressure, overall tiger densities at Huai Kha Khaeng were 82-90% lower than in ecologically comparable sites in India. However, intensified patrolling after 2006 appeared to reduce poaching and was correlated with marginal improvement in tiger survival and recruitment. Our results suggest that population recovery of low-density tiger populations may be slower than anticipated by current global strategies aimed at doubling the number of wild tigers in a decade.

Long-distance movement by a great fruit-eating bat, Artibeus lituratus (Olfers, 1818), in southeastern Brazil (Chiroptera, Phyllostomidae): evidence for migration in Neotropical bats? / Deslocamento de longa distância por um grande morcego frugívoro, Artibeus lituratus (Olfers, 1818), no sudeste do Brasil (Chiroptera, Phyllostomidae): evidência de migração de morcegos Neotropicais?

In Brazil, bat migrations have been inferred based on seasonal variations in bat abundances observed for several species, probably as a result of variations in temperature and food availability. However, direct evidence of individual medium to long distance (> 10 km) movements, based on marked specimens, is restricted to large frugivorous bats, genus Artibeus (Phyllostomidae). We report the longest bat movement recorded in Brazil, along 113 km in a straight line, difference in altitude of 738 m, from a mixed Araucaria forest in Curitiba, PR, to the Atlantic Forest, Alto Ribeira, SP, by a female Artibeus lituratus (Olfers, 1818), over a period of 14 months. This data is consistent with the occurrence of migratory movements in Neotropical bats, such as the ecologically flexible Artibeus spp., over relatively large areas, probably with short stopover foraging intervals. Implications for the conservation of these bats are clear, as their home ranges may be much larger than their foraging areas, encompassing more than one biome and overcoming political borders.

Migrações em morcegos brasileiros têm sido inferidas a partir de variações sazonais nas abundâncias regionais das populações, provavelmente condicionadas por flutuações na temperatura e na disponibilidade de alimento. No entanto, registros de deslocamentos individuais de média a longa distância, ultrapassando suas áreas domiciliares (> 10 km), comprovados através de marcação e recaptura, são restritos aos grandes morcegos frugívoros do gênero Artibeus (Phyllostomidae). Registramos, aqui, o maior deslocamento já publicado, de ca. 113 km em linha reta, entre localidades com diferença de altitude de 738 m, respectivamente em floresta mista de araucárias, região de Curitiba, PR, e em Mata Atlântica, Alto Ribeira, SP, realizado por uma fêmea de Artibeus lituratus (Olfers, 1818), em um intervalo máximo de 14 meses. Este dado é consistente com a ocorrência de movimentos migratórios em Artibeus spp. ao longo de áreas bastante extensas, provavelmente através de várias etapas de forrageio. As implicações para a conservação desses quirópteros são claras, uma vez que os animais desta espécie podem ter áreas de vida bem maiores que suas áreas domiciliares (de forrageio), abrangendo mais de um bioma e ultrapassando limites geopolíticos.

Road traffic injuries in northern Laos: trends and risk factors of an underreported public health problem.

OBJECTIVES: Road traffic injuries (RTI) have become a leading cause for admissions at Luang Namtha Provincial Hospital (LNPH) in rapidly developing northern Laos. Objectives were to investigate trends, risk factors and better estimates of RTI. METHODS: Repeated annual surveys were conducted with structured questionnaires among all RTI patients at LNPH from 2007 to 2011. Hospital and police data were combined by capture-recapture method. RESULTS: The majority of 1074 patients were young [median 22 years (1-88)], male (68%), motorcyclists (76%), drove without licence (85%) and without insurance (95%). Most accidents occurred during evenings and Lao New Year. Serious motorbike injuries were associated with young age (1-15 years), male sex (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.1-4.6) and drivers (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.1-4.3); more serious head injuries with alcohol consumption (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.7-3.7), male sex (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.4-3.7) and no helmet use (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.2-3.4). No helmet use was associated with young age, time period, pillion passengers (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.6-4.7), alcohol (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.2-2.8) and no driver license (OR 2.0; 95% CI 1.1-3.4). Main reasons not to wear helmets were not possessing one, and being pillion passenger. Capture-recapture analysis showed four times higher RTI estimates than officially reported. Mortality rate was 11.6/100.000 population (95% CI 5.1-18.1/100.000). CONCLUSIONS: RTI were substantially underestimated. Combining hospital with police data can provide better estimates in resource-limited settings. Preventive programmes and law enforcement have to target male drivers, alcohol, licensing and helmet use, especially among children and pillion passengers. Increased efforts are needed during evening time and special festivals.

An estimate of the incidence of influenza-like illness during the influenza pandemic of 2009.

INTRODUCTION: The influenza pandemic of 2009 had a great social impact. Many health resources were devoted to the care, prevention and surveillance of this disease. Epidemiological surveillance is based on the reporting of cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) and confirmed influenza cases. The objective was to estimate the true incidence of ILI during the influenza pandemic of 2009. METHODS: The capture-recapture method was applied during the month of highest influenza incidence in Castellón. Two notification systems were used: (i)electronic reporting of Notifiable Diseases (ND), and (ii)laboratory-based (LAB) data collection. Estimates were made by stratifying by age group and week. Independence coefficients were calculated for those strata. RESULTS: No dependence was found between stratification variables and the reporting system. A total of 7,181 ND cases and 524 LAB cases were identified, of which 211 were recorded in both systems. The estimated total of cases was 17,785 in a single month. In the study period, almost 4% of people in the area suffered flu symptoms (cumulative incidence), with 1% being affected each day (daily prevalence). The sensitivity of the ND system was 40%, i.e., the percentage of patients seeking primary care. CONCLUSIONS: To obtain an estimate of the actual incidence of influenza-like illness in the population during a pandemic period, the number of medical consultations should be multiplied by a factor of 2.5. This factor is lower than that estimated for periods without pandemic alert.

Assessment of tuberculosis surveillance by capture-recapture in the Balearic Islands, Spain, 2005-2007.

The tuberculosis surveillance system in the Balearic Islands was assessed from 2005 to 2007. Applying the capture-recapture method the completeness of this system was evaluated to be 58.4%. When a new electronic recorded data was included in Primary Health Care, up to 66.5% was obtained. This new source of data increased the detected cases of pulmonary tuberculosis from 572 to 681. As a result, the estimated annual incidence rate increases from 18.9 cases/10(5) to 22.6 cases/10(5) [95% CI, 20.9-24.3], similar to figures issued by WHO.

Density, distribution, and activity of the ocelot Leopardus pardalis (Carnivora: Felidae) in Southeast Mexican rainforests / Densidad, distribución y actividad del ocelote Leopardus pardalis (Carnivora: Felidae) en los bosques húmedos del sureste mexicano

The ocelot Leopardus pardalis is of particular significance in terrestrial communities due to its ecological role within the group of small-sized felids and as a mesopredator. However, despite the reduction of ocelot habitat in Southeast Mexico, there are still very few ecological studies. This research aimed to contribute with some ecological aspects of the species in this region. For this, 29 camera trap stations were established in a rain forest in Los Chimalapas (an area of 22km2) during a two years period (March 2011-June, 2013), in Oaxaca state, Southeast Mexico. Data allowed the estimation of the population density, activity pattern, sex ratio, residence time, and spatial distribution. Population density was calculated using Capture-Recapture Models for demographically open populations; besides, circular techniques were used to determine if nocturnal and diurnal activity varied significantly over the seasons, and Multiple Discriminant Analysis was used to determine which of the selected environmental variables best explained ocelot abundance in the region. A total of 103 ocelot records were obtained, with a total sampling effort of 8 529 trap-days. Density of 22-38individuals/100km2 was estimated. Ocelot population had a high proportion of transient individuals in the zone (55%), and the sex ratio was statistically equal to 1:1. Ocelot activity was more frequent at night (1:00-6:00h), but it also exhibited diurnal activity throughout the study period. Ocelot spatial distribution was positively affected by the proximity to the village as well as by the amount of prey. The ocelot population here appears to be stable, with a density similar to other regions in Central and South America, which could be attributed to the diversity of prey species and a low degree of disturbance in Los Chimalapas. Rev. Biol. Trop. 62 (4): 1421-1432. Epub 2014 December 01.

El ocelote Leopardus pardalis es importante en comunidades terrestres debido a su papel ecológico dentro del grupo de felinos de tallas pequeñas y como mesodepredador. A pesar de la disminución del hábitat del ocelote en el sureste de México, son pocos los estudios ecológicos. El siguiente trabajo presenta una contribución de algunos aspectos ecológicos de la especie en esta región. Se estimó la densidad poblacional, patrón de actividad, proporción de sexos, tiempo de residencia y distribución espacial del ocelote. El estudio se llevó a cabo mediante fototrampeo dentro de Los Chimalapas, en el estado de Oaxaca, sureste de México. Se establecieron 29 estaciones dentro de la selva alta y se cubrió un área de 22km2, durante dos años (marzo 2011-junio 2013). La densidad fue estimada usando Modelos de Captura-Recaptura para poblaciones demográficamente abiertas, las técnicas circulares fueron usadas para determinar si la actividad nocturna y diurna varió significativamente entre épocas y, un análisis discriminante múltiple fue usado para conocer cuáles variables explican mejor la abundancia del ocelote en la región. Se obtuvieron 103 registros de ocelote con un esfuerzo de 8 529 días-trampa. Se estimó una densidad de 22-38 individuos/100km2. La población del ocelote tuvo un porcentaje alto de transeúntes (55%) y la proporción de sexos fue estadísticamente similar de 1:1. El ocelote estuvo más activo en la noche (1:00-6:00am), pero exhibió actividad diurna durante todo el periodo de estudio. La distribución espacial estuvo afectada positivamente por la proximidad a poblados y por la cantidad de presas. La población del ocelote parece estable, con una densidad similar a otras regiones de Centro y Sudamérica, quizá debido a la diversidad de especies presa y al grado bajo de alteración en Los Chimalapas.

Chytridiomycosis and seasonal mortality of tropical stream-associated frogs 15 years after introduction of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis.

Assessing the effects of diseases on wildlife populations can be difficult in the absence of observed mortalities, but it is crucial for threat assessment and conservation. We performed an intensive capture-mark-recapture study across seasons and years to investigate the effect of chytridiomycosis on demographics in 2 populations of the threatened common mist frog (Litoria rheocola) in the lowland wet tropics of Queensland, Australia. Infection prevalence was the best predictor for apparent survival probability in adult males and varied widely with season (0-65%). Infection prevalence was highest in winter months when monthly survival probabilities were low (approximately 70%). Populations at both sites exhibited very low annual survival probabilities (12-15%) but high recruitment (71-91%), which resulted in population growth rates that fluctuated seasonally. Our results suggest that even in the absence of observed mortalities and continued declines, and despite host-pathogen co-existence for multiple host generations over almost 2 decades, chytridiomycosis continues to have substantial seasonally fluctuating population-level effects on amphibian survival, which necessitates increased recruitment for population persistence. Similarly infected populations may thus be under continued threat from chytridiomycosis which may render them vulnerable to other threatening processes, particularly those affecting recruitment success.