Efecto de factores sociodemográficos en la mortalidad del COVID-19 en Costa Rica: un enfoque geográfico

Introducción: La enfermedad por coronavirus (COVID-19) se ha extendido entre la población de todo el país y ha tenido un gran impacto a nivel mundial. Sin embargo, existen diferencias geográficas importantes en la mortalidad de COVID-19 entre las diferentes regiones del mundo y en Costa Rica. Objetivo: Explorar el efecto de algunos de los factores sociodemográficos en la mortalidad de COVID-19 en pequeñas divisiones geográficas o cantones de Costa Rica. Métodos: Usamos registros oficiales y aplicamos un modelo de regresión clásica de Poisson y un modelo de regresión ponderada geográficamente. Resultados: Obtuvimos un criterio de información de Akaike (AIC) más bajo con la regresión ponderada (927.1 en la regresión de Poison versus 358.4 en la regresión ponderada). Los cantones con un mayor riesgo de mortalidad por COVID-19 tuvo una población más densa; bienestar material más alto; menor proporción de cobertura de salud y están ubicadas en el área del Pacífico de Costa Rica. Conclusiones: Una estrategia de intervención de COVID-19 específica debería concentrarse en áreas de la costa pacífica con poblaciones más densas, mayor bienestar material y menor población por unidad de salud.

Introduction: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread among the population of Costa Rica and has had a great global impact. However, there are important geographic differences in mortality from COVID-19 among world regions and within Costa Rica. Objective: To explore the effect of some sociodemographic factors on COVID-19 mortality in the small geographic divisions or cantons of Costa Rica. Methods: We used official records and applied a classical epidemiological Poisson regression model and a geographically weighted regression model. Results: We obtained a lower Akaike Information Criterion with the weighted regression (927.1 in Poisson regression versus 358.4 in weighted regression). The cantons with higher risk of mortality from COVID-19 had a denser population; higher material well-being; less population by health service units and are located near the Pacific coast. Conclusions: A specific COVID-19 intervention strategy should concentrate on Pacific coast areas with denser population, higher material well-being and less population by health service units.

Regresiones aplicadas al estudio de eventos discretos en epidemiología / Regressions applied to the study of discrete events in epidemiology

En este manuscrito se revisan algunos aspectos básicos de la utilización de regresiones en los estudios epidemiológicos, haciendo énfasis en aquellas aplicadas al estudio de eventos discretos. De esta manera se hace una introducción a los modelos lineales generalizados, cuya estructura es una extensión de una ecuación lineal para analizar desenlaces discretos. De este modo podemos estimar medidas de asociación como la razón de tasas usando la regresión de Poisson, o bien, el riesgo relativo (o la razón de prevalencias) usando la regresión log-binomial. En cada caso es esencial conocer la naturaleza de la variable dependiente, su distribución y reconocer las limitaciones de cada una de las herramientas de análisis.

Some basic aspects about using regressions in epidemiological studies are reviewed. Particularly, this manuscript focused on those applied to the study of discrete events. Generalized lineal models, such as Poisson and log-binomial, have a structure that is an extension of a lineal equation to analyze discrete outcomes. Thus, we can estimate association measures as the incidence rate ratio, using the Poisson regression, or the relative risk (or prevalence ratio), using log-binomial regression. In each case it is essential to know the nature of the dependent variable, as well as, its distribution and recognize the limitations of each analysis tool.

[Excess mortality associated with influenza in Spain in winter 2012]. / Exceso de mortalidad relacionado con la gripe en España en el invierno de 2012.

OBJECTIVE: An excess of mortality was detected in Spain in February and March 2012 by the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and the «European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action¼ program. The objective of this article was to determine whether this excess could be attributed to influenza in this period. METHODS: Excess mortality from all causes from 2006 to 2012 were studied using time series in the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system, and Poisson regression in the European mortality surveillance system, as well as the FluMOMO model, which estimates the mortality attributable to influenza. Excess mortality due to influenza and pneumonia attributable to influenza were studied by a modification of the Serfling model. To detect the periods of excess, we compared observed and expected mortality. RESULTS: In February and March 2012, both the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and the European mortality surveillance system detected a mortality excess of 8,110 and 10,872 deaths (mortality ratio (MR): 1.22 (95% CI:1.21-1.23) and 1.32 (95% CI: 1.29-1.31), respectively). In the 2011-12 season, the FluMOMO model identified the maximum percentage (97%) of deaths attributable to influenza in people older than 64 years with respect to the mortality total associated with influenza (13,822 deaths). The rate of excess mortality due to influenza and pneumonia and respiratory causes in people older than 64 years, obtained by the Serfling model, also reached a peak in the 2011-2012 season: 18.07 and 77.20, deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. CONCLUSION: A significant increase in mortality in elderly people in Spain was detected by the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and by the European mortality surveillance system in the winter of 2012, coinciding with a late influenza season, with a predominance of the A(H3N2) virus, and a cold wave in Spain. This study suggests that influenza could have been one of the main factors contributing to the mortality excess observed in the winter of 2012 in Spain.

Differential patterns, trends and hotspots of road traffic injuries on different road networks in Vellore district, southern India.

OBJECTIVE: To describe spatial and temporal profiles of Road Traffic Injuries (RTIs) on different road networks in Vellore district of southern India. METHODS: Using the information in the police maintained First Information Reports (FIRs), daily time series of RTI counts were created and temporal characteristics were analysed with respect to the vehicle, road types and time of the day for the period January 2005 to May 2007. Daily incidence and trend of RTIs were estimated using a Poisson regression analysis. RESULTS: Of the reported 3262 RTIs, 52% had occurred on the National Highway (NH). The overall RTI rate on the NH was 8.8/100 000 vehicles per day with significantly higher pedestrian involvement. The mean numbers of RTIs were significantly higher on weekends. Thirteen percentage of all RTIs were associated with fatalities. Hotspots are major town junctions, and RTI rates differ over different stretches of the NH. CONCLUSION: In India, FIRs form a valuable source of RTI information. Information on different vehicle profile, RTI patterns, and their spatial and temporal trends can be used by administrators to devise effective strategies for RTI prevention by concentrating on the high-risk areas, thereby optimising the use of available personnel and resources.

Age, Period, and Cohort Effects on Mortality From Ischemic Heart Disease in Southern Spain.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Ischemic heart disease is the leading cause of death and one of the top 4 causes of burden of disease worldwide. The aim of this study was to evaluate age-period-cohort effects on mortality from ischemic heart disease in Andalusia (southern Spain) and in each of its 8 provinces during the period 1981-2008. METHODS: A population-based ecological study was conducted. In all, 145 539 deaths from ischemic heart disease were analyzed for individuals aged between 30 and 84 years who died in Andalusia in the study period. A nonlinear regression model was estimated for each sex and geographical area using spline functions. RESULTS: There was an upward trend in male and female mortality rate by age from the age of 30 years. The risk of death for men and women showed a downward trend for cohorts born after 1920, decreasing after 1960 with a steep slope among men. Analysis of the period effect showed that male and female death risk first remained steady from 1981 to 1990 and then increased between 1990 and 2000, only to decrease again until 2008. CONCLUSIONS: There were similar age-period-cohort effects on mortality in all the provinces of Andalusia and for Andalusia as a whole. If the observed cohort and period effects persist, male and female mortality from ischemic heart disease will continue to decline.

Mortalidad por leucemias en menores de 20 años: México 1998-2002 / Leukemia mortality on people under 20 years old: Mexico 1988-2002

Introducción. Las leucemias son el cáncer más frecuente durante la infancia. El estudio pretende describir la mortalidad por leucemias en menores de 20 años en México. Material y métodos. A partir del Sistema Estadístico y Epidemiológico de las Defunciones se calcularon tasas específicas por edad, género y entidad federativa. Se estimó la tasa media de mortalidad anual (TMMA) por estado, y la tasa truncada estandarizada por edad de mortalidad. La estandarización fue por el método directo y el error estándar por la aproximación de Poisson, los intervalos de confianza (IC) fueron de 95%. En la elaboración de la razón estandarizada de mortalidad (REM) se utilizó la tasa nacional como referencia. Se calculó la proporción de cambio anual estatal y nacional con IC al 95%, además se estimaron las tendencias nacionales y estatales de 1998 a 2002 por medio de la regresión de Poisson. Resultados. La mortalidad por leucemias representó 51.1%. La razón hombre/mujer fue de 1.3. Los grupos de edad más afectados fueron los de 5-9 y 10-14 años, ambas con TMMA de 27.7 por 10(6) habitantes. La REM para Quintana Roo y Puebla fueron significativas. En cuanto a la tendencia Tlaxcala presentó un incremento y Baja California Sur un decremento, ambos fueron estadísticamente significativos. Conclusiones. La mortalidad por leucemias en menores de 20 años representa un problema de salud pública nacional, por lo que el diagnóstico temprano y tratamiento específico deben ser de alta prioridad.

Introduction. Leukemias are the most frequent form of cancer in childhood and adolescence. This study describes the mortality rate for individuals under 20 years of age with a primary diagnosis of leukemia in Mexico over a 15 year period, from 1988-2002. Material and methods. Specific mortality rates were calculated according to age, gender and state of origin based on data provided by a National Epidemiological Mortality Reporting System (SEED). The median annual mortality rate and age adjusted mortality rate were estimated for each state in Mexico. The direct method was used for standardization and standard error with 95% confidence intervals were also calculated. The national mortality rate was used as a reference to estimate the standardized mortality rate. State annual change and trends were calculated from 1988 to 2002 by Poisson regression. Results. The leukemia mortality rate during the study period was 51.1%; the male/female ratio was 1.3 and the predominant age group ranged from 10 to 14 years of age. The median annual mortality rate of 27.7 per 10(6) inhabitants. Conclusions. Leukemia mortality in children and adolescents under 20 years of age represents a major public health problem in Mexico, early diagnosis and specific treatment must be considered high priority.