ABSTRACT
Seed yield and vigor of hybrid maize determine the planting, yield, and quality of maize, and consequently affect food, nutrition, and livelihood security; however, the response of seed yield and vigor to climate change is still unclear. We established an optimization-simulation framework consisting of a waternitrogen crop production function, a seed vigor and a gridded process-based model to optimize irrigation and nitrogen fertilization management, and used it to evaluate seed yield and vigor in major seed production locations of China, the USA, and Mexico. This framework could reflect the influence of water and nitrogen inputs at different stages on seed yield and vigor considering the spatio-temporal variability of climate and soil properties. Projected seed yield and vigor decreased by 5.8-9.0 % without adaptation by the 2050s, due to the 1.3-5.8 % decrease in seed number and seed protein concentration. Seed yield was positively correlated with CO2 and negatively correlated with temperature, while seed vigor depended on the response of components of seed vigor to climatic factors. Under optimized management, the direct positive effects of temperature on seed protein concentration and CO2 on seed number were strengthened, and the direct negative effects of temperature on seed number and CO2 on seed protein concentration were weakened, which mitigated the reductions in both seed yield and vigor. Elevated CO2 was projected to exacerbate the 2.6 % seed vigor reduction and mitigate the 2.9 % seed yield loss without adaptation, while optimized management could increase seed yield by 4.1 % and mitigate the 2.2 % seed vigor reduction in the Hexi Corridor of China, and decrease the seed yield and vigor reduction by 2.4-5.8 % in the USA and Mexico. Optimized management can strengthen the positive and mitigate the negative effects of climate change on irrigated hybrid maize and inform high-yield and high-quality seed production globally.