Assessing the impact of disease incidence and immunization on the resilience of complex networks during epidemics.

Disease severity through an immunized population ensconced on a physical network topology is a key technique for preventing epidemic spreading. Its influence can be quantified by adjusting the common (basic) methodology for analyzing the percolation and connectivity of contact networks. Stochastic spreading properties are difficult to express, and physical networks significantly influence them. Visualizing physical networks is crucial for studying and intervening in disease transmission. The multi-agent simulation method is useful for measuring randomness, and this study explores stochastic characteristics of epidemic transmission in various homogeneous and heterogeneous networks. This work thoroughly explores stochastic characteristics of epidemic propagation in homogeneous and heterogeneous networks through extensive theoretical analysis (positivity and boundedness of solutions, disease-free equilibrium point, basic reproduction number, endemic equilibrium point, stability analysis) and multi-agent simulation approach using the Gilespie algorithm. Results show that Ring and Lattice networks have small stochastic variations in the ultimate epidemic size, while BA-SF networks have disease transmission starting before the threshold value. The theoretical and deterministic aftermaths strongly agree with multi-agent simulations (MAS) and could shed light on various multi-dynamic spreading process applications. The study also proposes a novel concept of void nodes, Empty nodes and disease severity, which reduces the incidence of contagious diseases through immunization and topologies.

Age-dependent prevalence of malocclusions requiring treatment according to the KIG classification : A multipart cross-sectional study over a 10-year period from the district of Viersen/North Rhine.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Patients with statutory health insurance (SHI) in Germany must undergo an assessment of orthodontic treatment need using the "Kieferorthopädische Indikationsgruppen" (KIG; orthodontic indication groups) classification system since 2002. A treatment need only exists if anomalies of a certain degree of severity are present. The aim of this study was to evaluate the age-dependent prevalence and percentage distribution of KIG grades requiring treatment in patients with SHI before the age of 18 over a 10-year period. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between 2012 and 2021, treatment indication existed for 1951 (1025 female, 926 male) out of 2288 patients with SHI in the cohort of this study before the age of 18 according to current SHI guidelines. The KIG classification was based on the highest existing KIG grade. There were no multiple classifications. The patient cohort was divided into three patient groups (PG) according to chronological age for analysis: PG 1 < 10 years of age (early treatment), PG 2 10 to < 13 years of age (main treatment) and PG 3 13 to < 18 years of age (late treatment). RESULTS: In PG 1 (454 patients), the KIG classifications D (26.5%), K (25.5%), M (19.4%), and P (18.0%) dominated. In PG 2 (998 patients), classifications D (33.2%), predominated, whereas K (7.5%) and M (5.9%) rarely occurred. The classifications E (12.6%) and P (13.3%) appeared quite frequently. Transverse deviations occurred only about half as often in PG 2 as in PG 1 and PG 3. In PG 3 (499 patients), the classification E (17.6%) was particularly common, while P (2.6%) was rare. The proportion of KIG grades 5 decreased depending on age: 19% in PG 1, 13.5% in PG 2, 10.4% in PG 3. The prevalence of sagittal classifications was highest in all age groups (45.9% in PG 1, 39.1% in PG 2, 31.5% in PG 3). CONCLUSIONS: The distribution of KIG classifications requiring treatment was not homogeneous, but age dependent. The differences were particularly evident in the early treatment group and may be due to the limited applicability of the KIG classification system in patients before late mixed dentition. With increasing age at initial examination, the prevalence of sagittal classifications decreased, while that of vertical classifications increased. Still, the sagittal classifications D and M occurred most frequently in all age groups. The KIG classification D was always the most common in all patients until the age of 18.

Shift in Demographic Involvement and Clinical Characteristics of COVID-19 From Wild-Type SARS-CoV-2 to the Delta Variant in the Indian Population: In Silico Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Delta variant (B.1.617.2) was considered the most dangerous SARS-CoV-2 strain; however, in-depth studies on its impact based on demographic and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 are scarce. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate the shift in demographic and clinical characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic with the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant compared with the wild-type (WT) strain (B.1). METHODS: A cross-sectional study of COVID-19 cases in the Indian population caused by the WT strain (B.1) and Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 was performed. The viral genomic sequence metadata containing demographic, vaccination, and patient status details (N=9500, NDelta=6238, NWT=3262) were statistically analyzed. RESULTS: With the Delta variant, in comparison with the WT strain, a higher proportion of young individuals (<20 years) were infected (0-9 years: Delta: 281/6238, 4.5% vs B.1: 75/3262, 2.3%; 10-19 years: Delta: 562/6238, 9% vs B.1: 229/3262, 7%; P<.001). The proportion of women contracting infection increased (Delta: 2557/6238, 41% vs B.1: 1174/3262, 36%; P<.001). However, it decreased for men (Delta: 3681/6238, 59% vs B.1: 2088/3262, 64%; P<.001). An increased proportion of the young population developed symptomatic illness and were hospitalized (Delta: 27/262, 10.3% vs B.1: 5/130, 3.8%; P=.02). Moreover, an increased proportion of the women (albeit not men) from the young (Delta: 37/262, 14.1% vs B.1: 4/130, 3.1%; P<.001) and adult (Delta: 197/262, 75.2% vs B.1: 72/130, 55.4%; P<.001) groups developed symptomatic illness and were hospitalized. The mean age of men and women who contracted infection (Delta: men=37.9, SD 17.2 years; women=36.6, SD 17.6 years; P<.001; B.1: men=39.6, SD 16.9 years; women=40.1, SD 17.4 years; P<.001) as well as developing symptoms or being hospitalized (Delta: men=39.6, SD 17.4 years; women=35.6, SD 16.9 years, P<.001; B.1: men=47, SD 18 years; women=49.5, SD 20.9 years, P<.001) were considerably lower with the Delta variant than the B.1 strain. The total mortality was about 1.8 times higher with the Delta variant than with the WT strain. With the Delta variant, compared with B.1, mortality decreased for men (Delta: 58/85, 68% vs B.1: 15/20, 75%; P<.001); in contrast, it increased for women (Delta: 27/85, 32% vs B.1: 5/20, 25%; P<.001). The odds of death increased with age, irrespective of sex (odds ratio 3.034, 95% CI 1.7-5.2, P<.001). Frequent postvaccination infections (24/6238) occurred with the Delta variant following complete doses. CONCLUSIONS: The increased involvement of young people and women, the lower mean age for illness, higher mortality, and frequent postvaccination infections were significant epidemiological concerns with the Delta variant.

Comparative analysis of scoring systems for predicting mortality in Fournier gangrene: single center, 15 years experience.

To compare 5 published scoring systems (Fournier gangrene severity index [FGSI], Uludag FGSI [UFGSI], age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index [ACCI] and the Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and the Laboratory Risk Indicator for Necrotizing fasciitis (LRINEC) scores and to evaluate risk factors for outcome prediction in patients with Fournier gangrene (FG). Between 2010 and 2024, 311 patients were included in the study. The data of 276 survivors and 55 non-survivors were compared. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine which of the 5 scoring systems calculated according to demographic, laboratory and clinical data predicted mortality better. In addition, a cut-off value for these scoring systems was determined by ROC analysis. The mortality rate was 17.6% in FG patients. In all 5 scoring systems, univariate analyses showed higher values in non-survivor patients, while UFGSI and FGSI scoring systems were superior to other scoring systems in multivariate analyses (p < 0.001). ROC analysis using mortality-based sensitivity and specificity revealed that the optimal cut-off values for FGSI, UFGSI, ACCI, SOFA and LRINEC should be equal to or higher than 10, 12, 4, 2 and 8, respectively. UFGSI and FGSI scores had the highest AUC values among all scores. This was followed by ACCI, qSOFAand LRINEC. For a UFGSI score ≥ 12, the sensitivity was 84%, specificity 97%, PPV 85% and NPV 97%. Among the scoring systems used to predict mortality, UFGSI was the most accurate, while LRINEC was the least accurate.

Automatic Acne Severity Grading with a Small and Imbalanced Data Set of Low-Resolution Images.

INTRODUCTION: Developing automatic acne vulgaris grading systems based on machine learning is an expensive endeavor in terms of data acquisition. A machine learning practitioner will need to gather high-resolution pictures from a considerable number of different patients, with a well-balanced distribution between acne severity grades and potentially very tedious labeling. We developed a deep learning model to grade acne severity with respect to the Investigator's Global Assessment (IGA) scale that can be trained on low-resolution images, with pictures from a small number of different patients, a strongly imbalanced severity grade distribution and minimal labeling. METHODS: A total of 1374 triplets of images (frontal and lateral views) from 391 different patients suffering from acne labeled with the IGA severity grade by an expert dermatologist were used to train and validate a deep learning model that predicts the IGA severity grade. RESULTS: On the test set we obtained 66.67% accuracy with an equivalent performance for all grades despite the highly imbalanced severity grade distribution of our database. Importantly, we obtained performance on par with more tedious methods in terms of data acquisition which have the same simple labeling as ours but require either a more balanced severity grade distribution or large numbers of high-resolution images. CONCLUSIONS: Our deep learning model demonstrated promising accuracy despite the limited data set on which it was trained, indicating its potential for further development both as an assistance tool for medical practitioners and as a way to provide patients with an immediately available and standardized acne grading tool. TRIAL REGISTRATION: chinadrugtrials.org.cn identifier CTR20211314.

Relationship between platelet count and severity of neonatal respiratory distress syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Neonatal respiratory distress syndrome (NRDS) is a primary cause of morbidity and mortality in premature infants. Platelets have a unique role in lung repair and remodeling. This study aimed to determine the relationship between platelet count and NRDS severity. METHODS: The study included 234 newborns diagnosed with NRDS from January 2019 to August 2023. This study employed two methods of grouping: the first based on platelet count, dividing participants into thrombocytopenia (platelet count < 150 × 109/L, n = 50) and non-thrombocytopenia groups (platelet count ≥ 150 × 109/L, n = 184), and the second based on the severity of NRDS, categorizing them into severe (n = 24) and mild-moderate (n = 210) groups. Within the first grouping method, the thrombocytopenia group was further subdivided into moderate-severe group (platelet count < 100 × 109/L, n = 4) and mild group (platelet count was between 100.0 × 109/L and 150.0 × 109/L, n = 46). This study aimed to analyze the clinical characteristics of NRDS with thrombocytopenia, explore the correlation between platelet count and clinical indicators of NRDS. Binary Logistic regression analysis was employed to identify independent risk factors for thrombocytopenia in NRDS. RESULTS: A higher proportion of newborns in the severe group exhibited thrombocytopenia (severe group = 41.7%, mild-moderate group = 19.0%). Hospital stay, ventilation time, oxygen therapy duration were longer in the thrombocytopenia group compared to the non-thrombocytopenia group. Hospital stay, ventilation time, oxygen therapy duration, chest radiography score, and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were inversely associated with platelet count. Conversely, Apgar scores at 1 and 5 min, gestational age, and birth weight showed positive correlations with platelet count. Point-biserail correlation showed that thrombocytopenia was more likely to occur in newborns whose mothers had gestational hypertension, and the lower platelet count, the more severe NRDS. Oxygen therapy duration, birth weight < 1500 g, gestational hypertension and CRP levels emerged as independent risk factors for thrombocytopenia in NRDS. All differences were statistically significant (p all < 0.05). CONCLUSION: NRDS accompanied by thrombocytopenia indicates a more severe condition and poorer clinical outcomes. It is hypothesized that NRDS with thrombocytopenia involves a complex multifactorial etiology, including severe lung inflammation.

Exploratory analysis of serum Krebs von den Lungen-6, blood gas analysis & Brixia score in determining COVID-19 severity & mortality.

Background & objectives Krebs von den Lungen-6 (KL-6) is primarily expressed by the damaged type II pneumocytes. In this context, the relationship of KL-6 with blood gas analysis (BGA) parameters and Brixia score is still limitedly discussed. This study aims to analyze the correlation of KL-6, BGA and Brixia scores to the severity and mortality of COVID-19. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted in adult COVID-19 positive individuals at Universitas Airlangga Hospital, Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia, from March to August 2021. KL-6, BGA, and Brixia scores were compared according to severity (severe vs. non-severe) and mortality (non-survivor vs. survivor). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was also performed to define the optimal cut-off, sensitivity, as well as the specificity of KL-6, BGA and Brixia scores to determine the COVID-19 severity and mortality. Results Total 35 severe and 20 non-severe COVID-19 positive individuals were enrolled in this study. Of those, there were 22 non-survivors. No significant difference in serum KL-6 levels was observed in the severity and mortality groups. KL-6 and HCO3- had positive correlation in the severe group (r=0.37). KL-6 and Brixia scores showed a significant negative correlation among COVID-19 positive individuals (r=-0.283; P=0.036). KL-6 and Brixia scores together served as the best severity markers in the current study [AUC 0.809 (0.697-0.920); Sn/Sp=0.686/0.900)], followed by KL-6 and P/F ratio [AUC 0.800 (0.637-0.963); Sn/Sp=0.971/0.750]. Interpretation & conclusions The findings of this study suggest that KL-6 has the potential to be a useful adjunct laboratory parameter to the BGA and Brixia score representing COVID-19 severity and mortality.

Visceral adipose tissue for predicting severe acute pancreatitis.

Background & objectives Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a well known gastrointestinal cause of hospital admissions. There is a proven association between the severity of AP and obesity due to increased rates of local complications, multiple organ failure and mortality. Increased visceral adiposity is reported to be a better predictor of severe pancreatitis than body mass index (BMI) in many studies. This study aimed to assess the relationship between visceral adiposity and the severity of AP by measuring the visceral adipose tissue (VAT) area. Methods This single-centre, prospective study was conducted on consecutive individuals admitted with AP. The severity of AP was correlated with the VAT area, as estimated between 48 and 72 h of admission. Results Seventy-four individuals with AP were recruited during the study period. The overall study cohort's mean±SD for VAT area was 128.06±34.22 cm2. The VAT area was significantly larger in individuals with severe pancreatitis (141.01±33.75cm2) than in those with mild or moderate pancreatitis (115.11±29.85 cm2). The sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) of VAT were 78.4 per cent, 54.1 per cent and 0.722 in predicting severe AP, respectively. Interpretation & conclusions There is a significant association between severe AP and VAT. With the worldwide increase in obesity incidences, incorporating VAT into one of the prognostic indices for AP needs to be further explored.

Does serum albumin at the onset of necrotising enterocolitis predict severe disease in preterm infants?

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether laboratory markers obtained at the onset of necrotising enterocolitis (NEC) predict the severity of the disease in preterm infants. METHODS: Prospective cohort study conducted in a tertiary referance hospital. A total of 88 preterm infants were included in the study. Of those, 60 infants had the diagnosis of severe NEC, while the remaining 28 infants constituted the non-severe NEC group. Severe NEC was defined as surgical NEC or NEC-related mortality. Infants with and without severe NEC were compared in terms of demographic, clinical and laboratory characteristics. RESULTS: At the onset of disease, infants with severe NEC noted to have lower platelet count and serum ALB levels (p = 0.011, p = 0.004; respectively), whereas higher CRP, and serum lactate levels (p = 0.009, p = 0.008; respectively). Multiple binary logistic regression analyses showed that CRP (1.03(1.01-1.05), p = 0.024) and serum albumin level (0.16(0.04-0.64), p = 0.010) were statistically significant independent risk factors for severe NEC. The optimal cut-off value for the serum ALB level was found to be 23 g/L with 52% sensitivity (95%CI: 37-68%) and 84% specificity (95%CI: 60-97%) (AUC 0.727; p = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Serum ALB level at NEC onset might be a reliable biomarker for severe disease in preterm infants.

Patient-Reported Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Patients With Ulcerative Colitis: Results From the National Health and Wellness Survey.

Background: Ulcerative colitis (UC) is an inflammatory condition characterized by chronic, disabling gastrointestinal symptoms that can have detrimental effects on psychological, social, and professional quality of life. Few studies have examined patient-reported outcomes (PROs) and economic outcomes among individuals with varying UC severity and across different racial/ethnic groups. Methods: This cross-sectional study assessed sociodemographic data, PROs, and economic outcomes for participants from the National Health and Wellness Survey (2018, 2019, and 2020) with UC. Multivariable analyses were used to assess the association of self-reported UC severity and race/ethnicity with health-related quality of life (HRQoL), work productivity and activity impairment (WPAI), healthcare resource utilization (HCRU), and medical costs. Results: This study included 1500 participants with UC (1150 non-Hispanic White, 99 non-Hispanic Black, and 251 Hispanic). Moderate/severe disease was associated with significantly worse HRQoL and WPAI, greater HCRU, and higher direct medical costs than mild UC. Compared with non-Hispanic White participants, non-Hispanic Black participants reported better HRQoL, whereas Hispanic participants reported more HCRU and higher medical costs. Race/ethnicity significantly interacted with UC severity level in predicting labor force participation. Conclusions: Participants with moderate/severe disease had worse outcomes than those with mild UC. Additionally, racial/ethnic differences were found in HRQoL, employment, WPAI, HCRU, and direct medical costs. Notably, Hispanic participants showed distinct patterns, particularly in how disease severity influenced employment outcomes. Further research is needed to better understand the differential burden among patients across racial/ethnic groups.

Sex Differences in Chronic Cough Epidemiology: The Korean Cough Study Group.

BACKGROUND: Chronic cough is a common symptom encountered by healthcare practitioners. The global prevalence of chronic cough is 9.6%, with a female predominance. The aim of our study is to reveal the sex differences in prevalence and severity of chronic cough in South Korea, stratified by age and etiology. METHODS: This study included adult patients with chronic cough who were recruited from 19 respiratory centers in South Korea. Patients completed the cough numeric rating scale (NRS) and COugh Assessment Test (COAT) questionnaire to assess the severity and multidimensional impact of cough. RESULTS: Among the 625 patients, 419 (67.0%) were females, with a male-to-female ratio of 1:2.03. The mean age was 49.4 years, and the median duration of cough was 12 weeks. The mean NRS and COAT scores were 5.5 ± 1.8 and 9.5 ± 3.6, respectively. Female patients were older (45.3 ± 15.4 vs. 51.6 ± 15.2, P < 0.001) and more likely to have asthma/cough variant asthma (CVA) (26.7% vs. 40.8%, P = 0.001) than male patients. There was no difference in the duration or severity of cough between sexes, regardless of the cause. The male-to-female ratio was lower for upper airway cough syndrome (UACS), asthma/CVA, and gastro-esophageal reflux disease (GERD), but not for eosinophilic bronchitis (EB) or unexplained cough. The mean age of female patients was higher in UACS and asthma/CVA, but not in EB, GERD, or unexplained cough. The majority (24.2%) fell within the age category of 50s. The proportion of females with cough increased with age, with a significant rise in the 50s, 60s, and 70-89 age groups. The severity of cough decreased in the 50s, 60s, and 70-89 age groups, with no significant sex differences within the same age group. CONCLUSION: The sex disparities in prevalence and severity of cough varied significantly depending on the age category and etiology. Understanding the specific sex-based difference could enhance comprehension of cough-related pathophysiology and treatment strategies.

The Impact of Healthcare Pressures on the COVID-19 Hospitalisation Fatality Risk in England.

BACKGROUND: As the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic extends into 2023 and beyond, the treatment and outcomes of infected patients continues to evolve. Unlike earlier in the pandemic there are now further infectious disease pressures placed on hospitals, which influence patient care and triage decisions. METHODS: The manuscript uses individual patient records linked with associated hospital management information of system pressure characteristics to attribute COVID-19 hospitalisation fatality risks (HFR) to patients and hospitals, using generalised additive mixed effects models. RESULTS: Between 01 September 2022 and 09 October 2023, the COVID-19 hospitalisation fatality risk in England was estimated as 12.71% (95% confidence interval (CI) 12.53%, 12.88%). Staff absences had  an adjusted odds ratio of 1.038 (95% CI 1.017, 1.060) associated with the HFR when accounting for patient and hospital characteristics. INTERPRETATION: This observational research presents evidence that a range of local hospital effects can have a meaningful impact on the risk of death from COVID-19 once hospitalised and should be accounted for when reporting estimates. We show that both the patient case mix and hospital pressures impact estimates of patient outcomes.

RVD2 emerges as a serological marker in relation to severity and six-month clinical outcome following acute intracerebral hemorrhage: A prospective cohort study from a single academic institution.

BACKGROUND: Resolvin D2 (RvD2), with an anti-inflammatory activity, harbors a neuroprotective property. Here, serum RvD2 levels were detected with an attempt to explore its prognostic implication in human acute intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, serum RvD2 levels of 301 ICH patients, coupled with 100 heathy individuals, were gauged. All patients were randomly divided to two groups (200 patients in the study group and 101 in the validation group) in a 2:1 ratio. Change of serum RvD2 levels after ICH was investigated, and its correlations with National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores, hematoma volume and poststroke six-month modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores were determined using multivariate analysis. Its independent association with poor prognosis (mRS scores of 3-6) was uncovered in the study group and its prognostic predictive value was verified in the validation group. RESULTS: The serum levels of RvD2 in patients displayed a notable decline upon admission, as compared to controls. The levels exhibited independent correlations with NIHSS scores, hematoma size and mRS scores. Alternatively, RvD2 levels had independent relation to a poor prognosis after ICH. Within the framework of restricted cubic spline analysis, RvD2 levels were linearly correlated with the likelihood of poor prognosis, even adjusting for NIHSS scores and hematoma size. In the context of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, serum RvD2 dramatically distinguished risk of poor prognosis, with similar predictive ability to NIHSS scores and hematoma volume. By employing subgroup analysis, the relationship between RvD2 levels and poor prognosis was not obviously influenced by other parameters, such as age, sex, hypertension, and more. The integrated model containing serum RvD2, NIHSS scores and hematoma volume was visualized on a nomogram and showed high predictive performance and clinical effectiveness for poor prognosis via multiple evaluation metrics, including the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, ROC curve analysis, calibration curve analysis and decision curve analysis. Clinical usefulness of serum RvD2 was verified in the validation group. CONCLUSION: Serum RvD2 levels exhibit an immediate decrease post-ICH, which could be able to accurately reflect ICH severity and efficiently prognosticate poor neurological outcomes, signifying that serum RvD2 may represent an encouraging prognostic indicator in ICH.

Associations between pre-infection serum vitamin D concentrations and Omicron COVID-19 incidence, severity and reoccurrence in elderly individuals.

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies suggest a link between vitamin D status and COVID-19 susceptibility in hospitalised patients. This study aimed to investigate whether vitamin D concentrations in elderly individuals were associated with their susceptibility to Omicron COVID-19 incidence, the severity of the disease and the likelihood of reoccurrence during the era of the post-'zero-COVID-19' policies in China. DESIGN: In this retrospective study, participants were categorised into three groups based on their 25(OH)D concentrations: deficiency (< 20 ng/ml), insufficiency (20 to < 30 ng/ml) and sufficiency (≥ 30 ng/ml). The demographic and clinical characteristics, comorbidities and the incidence rate, reoccurrence rate and severity of Omicron COVID-19 were retrospectively recorded and analysed by using hospital information system data and an online questionnaire survey. SETTING: China. PARTICIPANTS: 222 participants aged 60 years or older from a health management centre. RESULTS: Our findings revealed significant differences in the incidence (P = 0·03) and recurrent rate (P = 0·02) of Omicron COVID-19 among the three groups. Participants with lower 25(OH)D concentrations (< 20 ng/ml) exhibited higher rates of initial incidence and reoccurrence and a greater percentage of severe and critical cases. Conversely, individuals with 25(OH)D concentrations ≥ 30 ng/ml had a higher percentage of mild cases (P = 0·003). Binary and ordinal logistic regression models indicated that vitamin D supplementation was not a significant risk factor for COVID-19 outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In the elderly population, pre-infection vitamin D deficiency was associated with increased susceptibility to incidence, severity of illness and reoccurrence rates of Omicron COVID-19.

Rethinking cutoff values for the South Oaks Gambling Screen: Sex-specific insights and DSM-5 severity adjustments in Gambling Disorder assessment.

Background and aims: The South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS) is a commonly used tool for screening potential gambling problems. The SOGS score has been found to be correlated with the DSM-5 criteria for Gambling Disorder (GD). However, one of its main limitations is the high rate of false positives. The objective of this study was to establish more accurate cutoff points for the SOGS based on the DSM-5 criteria and severity levels, taking into account sex-specific samples. Additionally, we aimed to validate these cutoff points using external measures. Methods: The study sample comprised 4.516 patients (398 women and 4,118 men) who sought treatment for GD. Of these patients, 4.203 met the DSM-5 criteria for GD, while 313 did not meet the threshold for GD diagnosis. Results: The recommended cutoff value for the SOGS is eight for men (Sensitivity (Se): 82.9%, Specificity (Sp): 86.2%) and seven for women (Se: 85.6%, Sp: 77.4%). For moderate severity of GD, the cutoff points are nine for men (Se: 82.1%, Sp: 82.0%) and eight for women (Se: 86.3%, Sp: 73.3%), while for severe cases of GD, the cutoff point is ten for both sexes (Se: 83.0%, Sp: 56.7% for men; Se: 80.0%, Sp: 77.4% for women). These cutoff values are validated by evidence of worse psychopathological states, more dysfunctional personality traits, and risky behaviours commonly associated with GD. Discussion and Conclusions: These findings support adjusting the reference values for the SOGS to eight in males and seven in females to enhance the classification of individuals potentially experiencing GD. The use of higher cutoff values has significant implications for clinical and research purposes, enabling a more precise assessment of the diagnosis and severity of GD.

Investigating risk factors associated with injury severity in highway crashes: A hybrid approach integrating two-step cluster analysis and latent class ordered regression model with covariates.

Highway crashes are responsible for a significant number of severe and fatal injuries drawing considerable attention from transportation authorities and safety researchers. This paper aims to investigate the unobserved heterogeneous effects of various risk factors, such as pre-crash circumstances, environmental and road conditions, vehicle-involved information, and driver attributes on injury severities. Our methodology uses a hybrid approach that combines two-step cluster analysis and latent class ordered regression model with covariates. The proposed approach extends traditional latent class model by elucidating potential relationships among predictors, covariates, and outcomes. A cross-sectional crash data covering a period of over five years (2011-2016) was obtained via the Dutch crash registration database for modeling injury severity outcomes. The results reveal substantial and statistically significant differences in injury severity between two latent classes. Moreover, we identify road lighting, time of crash, road surface conditions, weather, and season as covariates influencing class membership prediction. Factors such as high speed, alcohol involvement, frontal collision points, and older driver demographics increase the probability of serious injury and facility across all cases analyzed. Additionally, we observe notable heterogeneity effects between the two classes regarding temporal characteristics, the number and type of vehicles involved, as well as driver gender. Our findings provide specific and valuable insights into injury severity outcomes, which can inform the formulation of targeted safety countermeasures and regulatory strategies for traffic policies and relevant agencies.

Determinants of citizens' choice between public and private hospitals.

OBJECTIVE: This study assesses what factors determine citizens' preferences for a public or private hospital (assuming the choice is free of charge) according to the severity of the disease. MATERIAL AND METHOD: A web-based discrete choice experiment was carried out with 1777 individuals distinguishing between a control group (posed with a simple choice for each health condition) and added information for respondents of the treatment groups (distance, waiting time, advice from the family doctor, and recommendations from the social context). The relevance of these factors in relation to the severity of one's illness is investigated. The outcome variable is the choice of a public versus a private hospital for the treatment of a health issue of a different severity. RESULTS: The severity of the health issue has a moderator effect on the additional information for the treatment groups. Waiting time has a direct positive impact on the patient's preferred choice for a private hospital both for severe and non-severe health issues. Distance to the hospital and the family doctor's recommendation positively impact the preferred choice for a private hospital for non-severe health issues but not for severe health issues. Covariates like gender and age are not relevant in explaining the effects of the treatments, and educational level has a positive impact on one of the treatments: advice from the patient's environment. Satisfaction with public hospitals has a positive impact on all treatments. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate that waiting time is a key factor in choosing a private hospital against the majority-stated preference for a public hospital.

Relation between peripheral blood inflammatory indices and severity of central retinal artery occlusion.

Background: Central retinal artery occlusion (CRAO) has been identified as an acute emergency resulting in vision loss, with its pathogenesis potentially involving systemic inflammation and abnormal lipid metabolism. Over recent years, it has been established that peripheral blood inflammatory indices, including the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), the systemic immunoinflammatory index (SII), and the monocyte-to-high-density lipoprotein ratio (MHR), play significant roles in assessing systemic inflammation and lipid metabolism. However, the role of these indices in assessing the severity of CRAO has rarely been explored. This study aimd to investigate the relationship between these inflammatory indices and the severity of CRAO. Methods: This was a retrospective clinical study with a total of 49 CRAO patients and 50 age- and sex-matched controls involved. The patients with CRAO were divided into three groups (13 with incomplete CRAO, 16 with subtotal CRAO and 20 with total CRAO). Data were compared across these groups, and additionally, correlation analysis, restricted cubic spline plots, and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis were performed. Results: The values of NLR, SII and MHR were significantly higher in the CRAO group compared to controls (NLR: 2.49(1.71,3.44) vs 1.60(1.24,1.97), P<0.001; SII: 606.46(410.25,864.35) vs 403.91(332.90,524.31), P=0.001; MHR: 0.33(0.26,0.44) vs 0.25(0.21,0.34), P<0.001). MHR was also significantly higher in total CRAO than in incomplete CRAO and subtotal CRAO (0.41(0.32,0.60) vs 0.29(0.21,0.43), P=0.036; 0.41(0.32,0.60) vs 0.29(0.23,0.38), P=0.017). Significant positive associations were found between MHR, NLR, SII and both the incidence (all P<0.001) and severity (P<0.001, P<0.001, P=0.003, respectively) of CRAO. MHR had a linear relationship with both the occurrence and severity of CRAO (P-overall=0.013, P-non-linear=0.427 and P-overall=0.013, P-non-linear=0.825). Combining MHR and NLR significantly improved diagnostic efficacy for CRAO and total CRAO, with area under the curve of 0.816 and 0.827, respectively, compared to using MHR alone (0.705 and 0.816). Conclusion: Elevated levels of peripheral blood NLR, SII, and MHR are positively associated with CRAO incidence, highlighting their potential as early predictive markers. The combined NLR and MHR index further enhances diagnostic accuracy and may facilitate timely assessment of CRAO severity by ophthalmologists and internists.

The Role of Hematocrit Levels in Diagnosing the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis: A Cross-Sectional Study at a Tertiary Care Center in Nepal.

Background and objective Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a frequent cause of hospitalization for gastrointestinal issues, with a significant proportion of cases requiring intensive care. Although various scoring systems are available to predict AP severity, they often involve inconvenience and can be time-consuming and expensive. Hematocrit, a simple, cost-effective, readily available hematological test, has been used to predict AP severity. However, its effectiveness has been inconsistent across different studies. In light of this, we aimed to analyze the role of hematocrit levels in determining AP severity. Methods We conducted a prospective study at Patan Hospital in Lalitpur, Nepal, from June 8, 2022, to June 27, 2023. Sixty-five AP patients were evaluated to determine the prognostic value of hematocrit at admission. The severity of AP was classified per the Revised Atlanta Classification. Results Among the patients, 52 (80%) had mild AP (MAP), five (7.69%) had moderately severe AP (MSAP), and eight (12.31%) had severe AP (SAP). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for admission hematocrit levels yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.551 (95% CI: 0.423-0.675). A hematocrit cutoff value of 42% resulted in a sensitivity of 69.23% and a specificity of 46.15% for predicting severe AP (MSAP + SAP). Conclusions Based on our findings, hematocrit at admission is not a strong predictor of the severity of AP.

Longitudinal change in symptom severity in children with ASD: Results from the ELENA cohort.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a lifelong neurodevelopmental condition and understanding the changes in autism symptoms over time is crucial for tailoring support and interventions. This study therefore aimed to investigate the changes in symptom severity in a large cohort of children with ASD over a three-year follow-up period and identify factors that influence these changes. The study included 575 children diagnosed with ASD, ranging in age from 2 to 12 years, who were assessed at baseline and again 3 years later using the Autism Diagnostic Observational Schedule-2 (ADOS-2). ASD severity changes were investigated using the ADOS calibrated severity score (CSS) scores for total, social affect (SA) and restricted and repetitive behaviors (RRB). Results highlight four distinct patterns: stable high, stable low, increased, and decreased severity. The ADOS CSS total score changed for half of the sample, reflecting an increase in ASD severity for 21.9% and a decrease for 29.1% of children. For the other half, the ADOS CSS score remained stable, either high (34.4%) or low (14.6%). While the majority of previous studies reported stability in ASD severity, our findings revealed significant variability with frequent improvements in SA symptoms whereas RRBs remained stable or worsened. Our findings also showed that an improvement in SA was associated with the youngest group and early diagnosis. However, no clinical or sociodemographic factors were linked to changes in RRB, emphasizing the necessity for RRB-specific therapies. The third six-year follow-up point of the ongoing ELENA cohort study will map the long-term trajectories of the severity of ASD symptoms and their potential risk factors.