Within-population variation in an invasive fish' sociability when associating with conspecifics or heterospecifics.

Behavioural traits are key to promote invasion success because they are easier to adjust to changing environmental conditions than morphological or life history traits. Often, research has overlooked variance in behavioural traits within populations or has assumed it to be mere noise. However, a recent focus towards individual variation of behaviour of successful invaders has revealed new and more profound insights into the invasion process. Behavioural variation within a population could lead to more successful invasions, as they include individuals with diverse behaviours, which ensures at least some individuals could be able to cope with changing conditions. The aim of this research was to examine if invasive guppies (Poecilia reticulata) present within-population differences in their sociability (time spent associating with a shoal) when interacting with conspecifics or heterospecifics. Guppies presented significant differences in their individual tendencies to associate with conspecific or heterospecific shoals. There were among-individual differences in the time spent shoaling with conspecifics versus heterospecifics, where most individuals did not differ in their sociability with conspecifics or heterospecifics, and only 22% of individuals presented a higher tendency to associate with conspecifics. Our results are the first to show individual differences in fish' tendencies to associate with heterospecifics among individuals of the same population and rearing conditions. Given that associations with heterospecific natives have been found to be as beneficial as associations with conspecifics for invaders, our results contribute to the understanding of mechanisms behind heterospecific sociability between natives and invaders.

The successful experience of gymnastics world champion coach: an interview analysis.

Objectives: The role of a coach in enhancing athletes' performance and achieving success is well-documented across numerous studies. However, the strategies employed by Chinese coaches in developing world champion gymnasts remain under explored. Methods: This research involved a single case study focusing on a coach from the Chinese National Men's Gymnastics Team, credited with nurturing eight world champion gymnasts. Results: The inductive content analysis leads to that 6 subthemes, "international perspective and collaborative ability," "ability to control and regulate training loads," "identifying athletes' needs and transforming them into motivation," "goal setting aligned with athletes' abilities," "adopting authoritative democratic coaching style," and "establishing hierarchical-style friendship", and 3 themes, "training management and planning," "motivation and goal setting," and "interpersonal communication" are manifested. An overarching theme "the successful experience of gymnastics world champion coach," is derived from the analysis. Conclusion: This research bridges the gap between theoretical knowledge and practical application, offering valuable insights into the successful experiences of gymnastics world champion coaches. The findings have the potential to influence coaching methodologies globally, fostering the development of resilient, motivated, and high-performing athletes. Future research should focus on sport-specific studies, longitudinal analyses, and cross-cultural comparisons to further advance the field of sports coaching and validate the effectiveness of these innovative coaching strategies.

Success Rate of External Dacryocystorhinostomy With and Without Stent.

Dacryocystorhinostomy (DCR) is a procedure that bypasses an obstruction in the nasolacrimal duct system. DCR can be categorized into two primary techniques: external and endoscopic. This review aims to assess the success rate of external DCR procedures, both with and without the use of a stent. This study compared the outcomes of primary DCR with and without silicone intubation in multiple studies. The reviewed studies consistently showed that silicone intubation significantly improves the success rates of DCR, with success rates ranging from 80% to 95%. The involved studies suggest that silicone intubation offers specific advantages in complex cases involving distant and common canaliculus blockages and recurrent DCR surgeries. This review emphasizes that multiple studies have documented higher success rates of external dacryocystorhinostomy (DCR) when silicone tubes are utilized as stents. Furthermore, external DCR has been identified as the preferred procedure among medical professionals.

Limbal graft transplantation: a rare implementation in pediatric limbal stem cell deficiency.

PURPOSE: To evaluate limbal graft transplantation success in pediatric patients with chemical injury-induced limbal stem cell deficiency (LSCD) using the 'LSCD Working Group' staging system. METHODS: Medical records of 11 eyes of 11 children who underwent limbal graft transplantation (limbal autograft/limbal allograft) were included. Surgical success was defined as improvement in the post-operative 1st year LSCD stage. RESULTS: The mean age was 12 ± 5 (4-17) years. Causative agent was alkaline in 4(36.4%) and acid in 3(27.2%) patients. Limbal autograft was performed in 9 (81.8%) eyes with unilateral LSCD, and allograft transplantation was performed in 2 (18.2%) eyes with bilateral LSCD. The mean follow-up time was 33.89 ± 30.73 (12-102.33) months. The overall limbal graft transplantation success rate was 72.7%. Among 9 patients who receive limbal autograft, 8 had improvement in post-operative LSCD stage, 1 had stable LSCD stage. Of the 2 patients who receive limbal allograft, post-operative LSCD stage remained the same in 1 and worsened in 1 patient. The mean time between injury and the surgery was 30.47 ± 30.08 (7-108.47) months. Penetrating keratoplasty was performed in 3 (27.2%) of 11 patients following limbal graft transplantation. CONCLUSION: Management of LSCD in children is challenging and appears to be somewhat different from that of adults. Limited data in the literature indicate that cultivated or simple limbal epithelial transplantations (CLET/SLET) are primarily preferred in children. Although the tendency to take small tissue from the healthy eye is noteworthy, conventional limbal allograft and autograft transplantations also show promising results without any further complications in at least 1 year follow-up period.

[Indications and success rate of endotracheal emergency intubation in clinical acute and emergency medicine]. / Indikationen und Erfolgsrate der endotrachealen Notfallintubation in der klinischen Akut- und Notfallmedizin.

BACKGROUND: Securing the airway in the emergency department (ED) is a high-stakes procedure; however, the primary success and complication rate are largely unknown in Germany. The aim of this study was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected resuscitation room data for endotracheal intubation (ETI) regarding indications, performance and complications. METHOD: Between 1 January 2020 and 30 June 2023 all ETIs conducted in the ED (Kliniken Maria Hilf, Moenchengladbach, Germany) were analyzed following approval by the ethics committee (EK 23-369). Primary intubations performed by the anesthesiology department were excluded. The core medical team of the ED underwent a six-week training program including a two-week anesthesia rotation prior to performing ETI in the ED. There were standard operating procedures (SOP) for both rapid sequence induction (RSI) and airway exchange with a placed laryngeal tube (LT) utilizing video laryngoscopy (C-Mac, Storz), rocuronium for relaxation and primary intubation with an elastic bougie. The primary success rate, overall success rate and intubation-related complications were analyzed. Additionally, the factor of consultant ED staff and residents was evaluated with respect to the primary success rate. RESULTS: During the study period 499 patients were intubated by the core ED team and 28 patients underwent airway exchange from LT to ETI. Primary success could be achieved in 489/499 (98.0%) ETI and in 25/28 (89.3%) LT exchange patients. Surgically achieved securing of the airway was carried out in 5/527 (0.9%) patients in a cannot intubate situation and 11/527 (2.2%) patients suffered cardiac arrest minutes after the ETI. The overall first pass success rate of endotracheal tube placement was 514/527 (97.4%). The comparison of the primary success of consultants (168/175; 96.0%) vs. residents 320/325 (98.5%) yielded no significant differences (p = 0.08). CONCLUSION: In clinical acute and emergency medicine, a standardized approach utilizing video laryngoscopy and a bougie following a structured training concept, can achieve an above-average high primary success rate with simultaneous low severe complications in the high-risk collective of critically ill emergency patients in an intrahospital setting.

Exposure to sublethal levels of insecticide-fungicide mixtures affect reproductive success and population growth rates in the solitary bee Osmia cornuta.

In agricultural environments, bees are routinely exposed to combinations of pesticides. For the most part, exposure to these pesticide mixtures does not result in acute lethal effects, but we know very little about potential sublethal effects and their consequences on reproductive success and population dynamics. In this study, we orally exposed newly emerged females of the solitary bee Osmia cornuta to environmentally-relevant levels of acetamiprid (a cyano-substituted neonicotinoid insecticide) singly and in combination with tebuconazole (a sterol-biosynthesis inhibitor (SBI) fungicide). The amount of feeding solution consumed during the exposure phase was lowest in bees exposed to the pesticide mixture. Following exposure, females were individually marked and released into oilseed rape field cages to monitor their nesting performance and assess their reproductive success. The nesting performance and reproductive success of bees exposed to the fungicide or the insecticide alone were similar to those of control bees and resulted in a 1.3-1.7 net population increases. By contrast, bees exposed to the pesticide mixture showed lower establishment, shortened nesting period, and reduced fecundity. Together, these effects led to a 0.5-0.6 population decrease. Female establishment and shortened nesting period were the main population bottlenecks. We found no effects of the pesticide mixture on nest provisioning rate, offspring body weight or sex ratio. Our study shows how sublethal pesticide exposure may affect several components of bee reproductive success and, ultimately, population growth. Our results calls for a rethinking of pollinator risk assessment schemes, which should target not only single compounds but also combinations of compounds likely to co-occur in agricultural environments.

Asymmetric mate preference and reproductive interference mediate climate-induced changes in mate availability in a small mammal hybrid zone.

Range expansion and contraction are among the most common biotic responses to changing environmental conditions, yet much is to be learned about the mechanisms that underlie range-edge population dynamics, especially when those areas are points of secondary contact between closely related species. Here, we present field-measured parentage data that document the reproductive outcomes of changes in mate availability at a secondary contact zone between two species of woodrat in the genus Neotoma. Changes in mate availability resulted from drought-driven differential survival between the species and their hybrids. As the availability of conspecific mates declined, rates of hybridization increased, leading to the accumulation of admixed individuals in the zone of contact. Patterns of reproductive success in the wild appear to be the result of a combination of both pre-mating isolation and post-zygotic selection resulting from genomic incompatibilities between the parental lineages. Evidence of asymmetric mate preference between the parental lineages came from both skewed reproductive output in the field and laboratory preference trials. Moreover, partial genomic incompatibility was evident from the near-zero reproductive success of F1 males and because nearly all surviving hybrids had one pure parent. Nonetheless, high reproductive success of F1 females and backcrossing in both parental directions allow for introgression between the parental species. These findings reveal how climate change may alter evolutionary outcomes for species at the edge of their ranges through an interplay of behavioral, demographic, and genetic mechanisms.

Crossing horizons: unraveling perspectives on enhancing medical students' success through at-risk factor exploration.

BACKGROUND: Medical universities often face the ongoing challenge of identifying and supporting at-risk students to enhance retention rates and academic success. This study explores a comprehensive analysis of perceived at-risk factors impeding academic and career aspirations and compares the perspectives of students and faculty in a medical school. METHODS: We focused on first and second-year medical (MBBS) students and teaching faculty in an international medical college offering a twinning program in India and Malaysia. Our investigation involved a comprehensive assessment of 25 at-risk factors through Likert-type questionnaires distributed to 250 MBBS students and 50 teaching faculty. RESULTS: Our findings revealed distinct disparities in perceptions between faculty and students regarding mean scores of classroom engagement (p = 0.017), procrastination (p = 0.001), unrealistic goals (p = 0.026), emotional/behavioral problems (p = 0.008), limited key social skills (p = 0.023), and a non-supportive home environment (p = 0.001). These differences underscore the need for increased communication and understanding between faculty and students to address these risk factors effectively. In contrast, no significant disparities were observed among faculty and students' perceptions concerning mean scores of various potential at-risk factors, including academic unpreparedness, cultural/language barriers, individual guidance/mentoring, limited communication skills, racism/sexism, self-confidence, self-respect, self-concept, motivation, underprepared for current academic challenges, self-discipline, negative social network, negative peer culture, transportation time, college financial cost, college evaluation culture bias, broken college relationships, teaching methodology, and learning disabilities. However, varying degrees of influence were perceived by faculty and students, suggesting the importance of individualized support. CONCLUSION: This study contributes to the academic community by shedding light on the multifaceted nature of at-risk factors influencing student success. It underscores the need for proactive measures and tailored interventions to enhance student retention in higher education and academic achievement, fostering a sustainable foundation for lifelong learning and growth.

Appraising critical success factors in sustainable housing projects: A comparative study of PPP modalities in Saudi Arabia.

This study examines the critical success factors (CSFs) crucial for the effective deployment of public-private partnership (PPP) models in sustainable housing projects in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), underpinning the nation's Vision 2030. Through a robust methodology that incorporates a profound literature review, structured interviews, and a survey involving key stakeholders, the study prioritizes fourteen significant CSFs integral to PPP efficacy. Employing Analytical Hierarchy Process analysis, key outcomes underscore the paramount importance of technical aspects with an emphasis on sustainability, tailoring risk-sharing and allocation to encompass green technologies and eco-friendly practices, and economic stability in the light of long-term environmental sustainability in fostering successful sustainable housing projects. Notably, the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) model is categorized as the most effective PPP modality, attaining a mean importance score of 4.07. This model is contrasted with other modalities such as Design-Build-Operate (DBO) and Build-Own-Lease-Transfer (BOLT), which scored lower in effectiveness. This comprehensive evaluation provides crucial insights for policymakers and practitioners, emphasizing the strategic selection of PPP modalities and the prioritization of CSFs to enhance the sustainability and effectiveness of housing projects in KSA.

Comparison of Conventional and Digital Workflows in the Fabrication of Fixed Prostheses: A Systematic Review.

When considering dental restorations, the use of fixed partial dentures is one of the most widely accepted treatment options. In the past, fabrication was done using traditional techniques and the conventional workflow was by far the popular method; however, nowadays digital workflows are being used as a means to produce the prosthesis. This systematic review aims to compare the workflows by considering their respective qualities, such as precision, efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and clinical performance. A complete search has been carried out to incorporate any relevant studies published between the years 2012 and 2023 in databases such as Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Cochrane Library. Two independent reviewers screened articles for inclusion and assessed the studies' methodological quality rating via the NIH Tool. A total of 22 relevant articles were reviewed after a systematic search strategy. The main outcome of the review was digital workflows were found to reduce working time, eliminate the selection of trays, minimize material consumption, and enhance patient comfort and acceptance. The studies also showed that digital workflows resulted in greater patient satisfaction and higher success rates than conventional workflows. Workflows for digital dentistry demonstrated to be better than traditional ones due to the cost-effectiveness, accuracy, and time optimization for the fabrication of fixed prostheses.

The effect of breastfeeding education given through the teach-back method on mothers' breastfeeding self-efficacy and breastfeeding success: a randomized controlled study.

BACKGROUND: An individualized education using visual aids, allowing the woman to demonstrate what she has learned, and providing the opportunity for the woman to ask questions are important in terms of breastfeeding self-efficacy, breastfeeding success, and the sustainability of the education. This study is original in evaluating the effectiveness and sustainability of breastfeeding education provided through the teach-back method in terms of breastfeeding self-efficacy and success in a short period of time. Therefore, the aim of this study is to examine the impact of teach-back method on mothers' breastfeeding self-efficacy and breastfeeding success. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a randomized controlled study. The population of this study consisted of women who gave birth in the obstetrics and gynecology department of a state hospital located in Çorlu, in the northwest region of Turkey, between March 2022 and August 2022. The sample of this study consisted of a total of 100 postpartum women, with 50 participants in the experimental group and 50 participants in the control group, who gave birth in the obstetrics and gynecology department of Çorlu State Hospital. Computer-assisted simple randomization was employed to ensure the homogeneous distribution of the women into the experimental and control groups. The women in the experimental group received education and counseling services using the Teach-Back Method, based on the content of the prepared Breastfeeding Education Guide. The control group mothers, on the other hand, received standard breastfeeding education and counseling services. The data were collected through face-to-face interviews during the first 24 h postpartum and at the 1-month follow-up visits. In the study, the data collection tools used were a Personal Information Form, LATCH Breastfeeding Assessment and Evaluation Scale, Postpartum Breastfeeding Self-Efficacy Scale (short form), and the Teach-Back Observation Tool. In the evaluation of the research findings, the SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) version 25.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY, USA) program was used for statistical analyses. Descriptive, graphical, and statistical methods were employed to examine whether the scores obtained from each continuous variable followed a normal distribution. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to assess the normality of the scores derived from a continuous variable using statistical methods. RESULTS: In the study, no significant difference was found in the distribution of the socio-demographic characteristics of the participants according to the study groups. In the experimental group, which received training with the tell-what-you-learned method, the mothers' average EÖYÖ scores before the training, at the 24th hour after the training and at the 1st month after the training were 46.41 ± 11.26, respectively; It was determined to be 66.23 ± 6.94 and 67.84 ± 6.27. In the measurements made during the follow-up, it was determined that there was a significant difference in the study group's EÖYÖ score averages (p < 0,001). For mothers in the experimental group, the average LATCH score of the mothers before training, 24 h after training and 1 month after training was 7.73 ± 1.81, respectively; It was determined that these values were 8.66 ± 1.61 and 9.95 ± 0.30, and there was a significant difference in the mean LATCH scores of the study group in the measurements made during the follow-up (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Breastfeeding education provided through the teach-back method is more effective in increasing both breastfeeding success and breastfeeding self-efficacy when compared to standard breastfeeding education. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Iran Randomized Clinical Trial Center IRCT20220509054795N2 Date of first registration: 10/11/2022.

Impact of Pre-Admission Grade Point Averages on Anesthesiologist Assistant Student Performance at Emory University School of Medicine.

Purpose: The Anesthesiologist Assistant career is gaining significant popularity in the health professions in the United States. Given that this medical occupation is relatively young, there is limited information regarding student success in this demanding graduate-level program. Assessing if pre-admission metrics influence how students perform during the curriculum is essential to recruiting the appropriate candidates. Grade point averages have been shown to correlate with student success in medical education programs for both medical students and physician assistant students, but there is currently no information regarding anesthesiologist assistant students. Methods: Pre-matriculation science and cumulative grade point averages were accessed in a deidentified manner for Emory University Anesthesiologist Assistant Students, and 2-tailed Pearson coefficients were calculated to see if there was a correlation with performance during the science/didactic curriculum of our program and with the clinical curriculum of the program. Results: The 2-tailed Pearson coefficients showed a moderately strong positive correlation between pre-admission science and cumulative grade point averages and performance during the science curriculum of the Emory program (r=0.522). Data also suggested a moderate correlation with grade point averages at graduation from our program (r=0.484). Similar results were found with cumulative grade point averages as well. Conclusion: Given the limited information, we have regarding pre-admission metrics and performance in an Anesthesiologist Assistant program, our study shows that pre-admission science scores and grades in general in undergraduate studies does in fact mimic the information found from studies of other health profession students. Further studies are needed to elucidate how to choose the most appropriate candidates for admission to anesthesiologist assistant programs.

Clinical Variables Associated with Successful Treatment of Depression or Anxiety in Collaborative Care.

Collaborative Care, an evidence-based model, has proven effective in treating depression and anxiety in healthcare settings. However, limited attention has been paid to exploring treatment outcome differences by clinical variables and diagnosis within this model. While previous research suggests that early and frequent contacts and swift treatment access lead to positive outcomes for depression and anxiety, these aspects have not been comprehensively examined in Collaborative Care. This study investigates the impact of clinical variables on treatment completion in patients primarily diagnosed with anxiety or depression who received collaborative care treatment as a treatment program. Analysis was completed as an observational study of patients (n =2018) with behavioral health diagnoses spanning from 2016 to 2023. Classification analysis offers insights into optimal practices for implementing Collaborative Care across diverse healthcare populations from pediatric to geriatric. Identifying clinical characteristics associated with successful treatment in Collaborative Care has far-reaching implications for model adoption and enhancing patient outcomes. Across all results, patients who received more clinical support and had shorter enrollment durations showed a strong association with successful treatment completion.

Futility Interim Analysis Based on Probability of Success Using a Surrogate Endpoint.

In clinical trials with time-to-event data, the evaluation of treatment efficacy can be a long and complex process, especially when considering long-term primary endpoints. Using surrogate endpoints to correlate the primary endpoint has become a common practice to accelerate decision-making. Moreover, the ethical need to minimize sample size and the practical need to optimize available resources have encouraged the scientific community to develop methodologies that leverage historical data. Relying on the general theory of group sequential design and using a Bayesian framework, the methodology described in this paper exploits a documented historical relationship between a clinical "final" endpoint and a surrogate endpoint to build an informative prior for the primary endpoint, using surrogate data from an early interim analysis of the clinical trial. The predictive probability of success of the trial is then used to define a futility-stopping rule. The methodology demonstrates substantial enhancements in trial operating characteristics when there is a good agreement between current and historical data. Furthermore, incorporating a robust approach that combines the surrogate prior with a vague component mitigates the impact of the minor prior-data conflicts while maintaining acceptable performance even in the presence of significant prior-data conflicts. The proposed methodology was applied to design a Phase III clinical trial in metastatic colorectal cancer, with overall survival as the primary endpoint and progression-free survival as the surrogate endpoint.

Ecological drivers of nesting behavior in a subtropical city: An observational study on spotted doves.

Due to rapid homogenization in habitat types as a result of urbanization, some urban birds adapt their nesting strategies to changes in local habitat characteristics. Bird nesting decisions might have been mainly linked to resource constraints and ensuring reproductive success. In this study, we examined patterns of nesting behavior by spotted doves (Spilopelia chinensis) in a rapidly urbanizing area of Nanchang, China using ArcGIS 10.8, satellite tracking, camera traps, and field survey. To explore the mechanisms underlying nesting behavior in urban habitats, we assessed the correlations between nest reuse and reproductive success, and between nest reuse and nest predation. From December 2018 to December 2021, a total of 302 breeding nests were surveyed. The results revealed that the nest reuse rate was 38.08% (n = 115). Nests closer to trunk, with lower nest position and higher large-scale urbanization score tended to have higher reuse rate. In addition, nests with the higher the nest height and percent of canopy cover, and the lower small-scale urbanization score were more likely to reproduce successfully, and the reused nests also reproduce more successfully. The reproductive success associated with nest reuse was significantly higher than that associated with new nests (χ 2 = 8.461, p = .004). High degree of urbanization promoted nest reuse of spotted doves (large-scale urbanization score, z = 2.094, p = .036), which apparently enhanced their reproductive success (nest reuse, z = 2.737, p = .006). In conclusion, a nest structure with good permeability is the material basis for the nest reuse in spotted dove, while the relatively low risk of predation in urban habitat and the scarcity of nest site resources due to urbanization increase the tendency of birds to reuse old nests, which is associated with their reproductive success and evolutionary fitness.

Impact of universal use of a hyperangulated videolaryngoscope as the first option for all intubations in the ICU: A prospective before-after study.

BACKGROUND: Tracheal intubation in ICU is associated with high incidence of difficult intubations. The study aimed to investigate whether the "universal" use of a hyperangulated videolaryngoscope would increase the frequency of "easy intubation" in ICU patients compared to direct laryngoscopy. METHODS: A prospective before-after study was conducted. The pre-interventional period (36 months) involved tracheal intubations using direct laryngoscopy as the first intubation option. In the interventional period (18 months) a hyperangulated videolaryngoscope was the first intubation option. The primary outcome was the percentage of patients with "easy intubation" defined as intubation on the first attempt and easy laryngoscopy (modified Cormack-Lehane glottic view of I-IIa). Secondary outcomes included difficult laryngoscopy, operator technical difficulty, and complications. RESULTS: We enrolled 407 patients, 273 in non-interventional period, and 134 in interventional period. Tracheal intubation in the interventional period was associated with higher incidence of "easy intubation" (92.5%) compared with the non-interventional period (75.8%); P < 0.001)). Glottic visualization improved in the interventional period, with a reduced incidence of difficult laryngoscopy (1.5% vs. 22.5%; P < 0.001). The proportion of first-success rate intubation was 92.5% in the interventional period, and 87.8% in the non-interventional period (P = 0.147). Moderate and severe technical difficulty of intubation reported decreased in the interventional period (6% vs. 17.6%; P < 0.001). There was no significant difference between both periods in the incidence of complications. CONCLUSION: "Universal" use of hyperangulated videolaryngoscopy for tracheal intubation in patients admitted in ICU improves the percentage of easy intubation compared to direct laryngoscopy.

A Prediction Model for Assessing the Efficacy of Thermal Ablation in Treating Benign Thyroid Nodules ≥ 2 cm: A Multi-Center Retrospective Study.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a prediction model utilizing clinical and ultrasound (US) data for preoperative assessment of efficacy following US-guided thermal ablation (TA) in patients with benign thyroid nodules (BTNs) ≥ 2 cm. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively assessed 962 patients with 1011 BTNs who underwent TA at four tertiary centers between May 2018 and July 2022. Ablation efficacy was categorized into therapeutic success (volume reduction rate [VRR] > 50%) and non-therapeutic success (VRR ≤ 50%). We identified independent factors influencing the ablation efficacy of BTNs ≥ 2 cm in the training set using multivariate logistic regression. On this basis, a prediction model was established. The performance of model was further evaluated by discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]) in the validation set. RESULTS: Of the 1011 nodules included, 952 (94.2%) achieved therapeutic success at the 12-month follow-up after TA. Independent factors influencing VRR > 50% included sex, nodular composition, calcification, volume, and largest diameter (all p < 0.05). The prediction equation was established as follows: p = 1/1 + Exp∑[8.113 -2.720 × (if predominantly solid) -2.790 × (if solid) -1.275 × (if 10 mL < volume ≤ 30mL) -1.743 × (if volume > 30 mL) -1.268 × (if with calcification) -2.859 × (if largest diameter > 3 cm) +1.143 × (if female)]. This model showed great discrimination, with AUC of 0.908 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.868-0.947) and 0.850 (95% CI: 0.748-0.952) in the training and validation sets, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A clinical prediction model was successfully developed to preoperatively predict the therapeutic success of BTNs larger than 2 cm in size following US-guided TA. This model aids physicians in evaluating treatment efficacy and devising personalized prognostic plans.

Individual and team performance in cricket.

Advancements in technology have recently allowed us to collect and analyse large-scale fine-grained data about human performance, drastically changing the way we approach sports. Here, we provide the first comprehensive analysis of individual and team performance in One-Day International cricket, one of the most popular sports in the world. We investigate temporal patterns of individual success by quantifying the location of the best performance of a player and find that they can happen at any time in their career, surrounded by a burst of comparable top performances. Our analysis shows that long-term performance can be predicted from early observations and that temporary exclusions of players from teams are often due to declining performances but are also associated with strong comebacks. By computing the duration of streaks of winning performances compared to random expectations, we demonstrate that teams win and lose matches consecutively. We define the contributions of specialists such as openers, all-rounders and wicket-keepers and show that a balanced performance from multiple individuals is required to ensure team success. Finally, we measure how transitioning to captaincy in the team improves the performance of batsmen, but not that of bowlers. Our work emphasizes how individual endeavours and team dynamics interconnect and influence collective outcomes in sports.

Modeling of Parkinson's Disease Progression and Implications for Detection of Disease Modification in Treatment Trials.

Background: Objectively measuring Parkinson's disease (PD) signs and symptoms over time is critical for the successful development of treatments aimed at halting the disease progression of people with PD. Objective: To create a clinical trial simulation tool that characterizes the natural history of PD progression and enables a data-driven design of randomized controlled studies testing potential disease-modifying treatments (DMT) in early-stage PD. Methods: Data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) were analyzed with nonlinear mixed-effect modeling techniques to characterize the progression of MDS-UPDRS part I (non-motor aspects of experiences of daily living), part II (motor aspects of experiences of daily living), and part III (motor signs). A clinical trial simulation tool was built from these disease models and used to predict probability of success as a function of trial design. Results: MDS-UPDRS part III progresses approximately 3 times faster than MDS-UPDRS part II and I, with an increase of 3 versus 1 points/year. Higher amounts of symptomatic therapy is associated with slower progression of MDS-UPDRS part II and III. The modeling framework predicts that a DMT effect on MDS-UPDRS part III could precede effect on part II by approximately 2 to 3 years. Conclusions: Our clinical trial simulation tool predicted that in a two-year randomized controlled trial, MDS-UPDRS part III could be used to evaluate a potential novel DMT, while part II would require longer trials of a minimum duration of 3 to 5 years underscoring the need for innovative trial design approaches including novel patient-centric measures.

To develop effective medicines that can slow down or stop the progression of Parkinson's disease (PD), it is important to accurately understand how the disease worsens over time. We used data from an observational study, led by the Michael J. Fox Foundation, called the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) to understand the natural progression of  PD. We simulated clinical trials on a computer using different scales to measure the progression of PD. We specifically looked at a physician-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part III, and at a patient-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part II of how PD symptoms worsen over time. To measure the effect of a new medicine slowing down the progression of PD using patient-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part II, we estimate that we may need to conduct a clinical trial of at least 3 to 5 years. On the other hand, to measure an effect using physician-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part III, the duration of the trial could be shorter than 2 years. We were also able to show that worsening recorded by the physician-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part III could be predictive of a later worsening recorded by the patient-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part II. We concluded that MDS-UPDRS part III may be a good endpoint for a clinical trial of a reasonable duration and that MDS-UPDRS part II could be measured in longer studies, for example, open-label extensions.

Predict progression free survival and overall survival using objective response rate for anti-PD1/PDL1 therapy development.

In oncology anti-PD1 / PDL1 therapy development for solid tumors, objective response rate (ORR) is commonly used clinical endpoint for early phase study decision making, while progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) are widely used for late phase study decision making. Developing predictive models to late phase outcomes such as median PFS (mPFS) and median OS (mOS) based on early phase clinical outcome ORR could inform late phase study design optimization and probability of success (POS) evaluation. In existing literature, there are ORR / mPFS / mOS association and surrogacy investigations with limited number of included clinical trials. In this paper, without establishing surrogacy, we attempt to predict late phase survival (mPFS and mOS) based on early efficacy ORR and optimize late phase trial design for anti-PD1 / PDL1 therapy development. In order to include adequate number of eligible clinical trials, we built a comprehensive quantitative clinical trial landscape database (QLD) by combining information from different sources such as clinicaltrial.gov, publications, company press releases for relevant indications and therapies. We developed a generalizable algorithm to systematically extract structured data for scientific accuracy and completeness. Finally, more than 150 late phase clinical trials were identified for ORR / mPFS (ORR / mOS) predictive model development while existing literature included at most 50 trials. A tree-based machine learning regression model has been derived to account for ORR / mPFS (ORR / mOS) relationship heterogeneity across tumor type, stage, line of therapy, treatment class and borrow strength simultaneously when homogeneity persists. The proposed method ensures that the predictive model is robust and have explicit structure for clinical interpretation. Through cross validation, the average predictive mean square error of the proposed model is competitive to random forest and extreme gradient boosting methods and outperforms commonly used additive or interaction linear regression models. An example application of the proposed ORR / mPFS (ORR / mOS) predictive model on late phase trial POS evaluation for anti-PD1 / PDL1 combination therapy was illustrated.