Evaluating the multi-variable influence on O3, NO2, and HCHO using BRTs and RF model.

This study addresses significant knowledge gaps in understanding the complex interplay between atmospheric chemistry and synoptic conditions. Using emerging machine learning techniques-Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) and Random Forest (RF) models-we investigate the influence of synoptic conditions on pollutant levels. Several BRTs and RF models are developed to estimate surface concentrations of ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and formaldehyde (HCHO). By considering a range of algorithmic structures and explanatory variables for each pollutant, the research aims to identify the most skillful predictive approaches and influential factors governing pollutant levels. The design seeks to highlight key determinants of concentration patterns without constraining the investigation to pre-defined model structures or explanatory variable sets. Introducing a novel methodology, Correlation Coefficient Differential Evaluation (C2DE), we quantitatively assess the influence of explanatory variables. C2DE reveals significant contributions from spatial variables (i.e., trajectory clusters at varying altitudes), formaldehyde to nitrogen dioxide ratio (FNR), and meteorological parameters. Specifically, spatial variables contribute approximately 28 % to O3 concentrations, while the FNR accounts for around 5.2-9.8 % of the overall influence. For NO2 and HCHO, spatial variables contribute around 26.5 % and 32.1 %, respectively. Moreover, when considering the combined influence of meteorological parameters, these collectively explain about 45.34 %, 35.31 %, and 45.41 % of the variations in O3, NO2, and HCHO concentrations, respectively. Thus, C2DE provides valuable insights into the relative contributions of these factors, aiding in the comprehensive evaluation of air quality dynamics. This underscores the need for a multifaceted approach to comprehending and effectively addressing air pollution before devising its control strategies.

A 25-year climatology of low-tropospheric temperature and humidity inversions for contrasting synoptic regimes at Neumayer Station, Antarctica.

A 25-year set of daily radiosonde data was used to investigate temperature and humidity inversions at Neumayer Station, coastal Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. For the first time, inversions were studied differentiating between different synoptic conditions and different height levels. It was shown that, generally, inversions occurred on the majority (78%) of the days, with simultaneous occurrence of humidity and temperature inversions being observed on approximately two thirds of all days. Multiple inversions are common in all seasons for cyclonic and noncyclonic conditions, however, typically occur more frequently under cyclonic conditions. The seasonality of inversion occurrence and features, that is, inversion strength, depth and vertical gradients, was analysed statistically. Different formation mechanisms depending on inversion levels and prevailing weather situations are related to typical annual courses of certain inversion features. Winter maxima were found for the features that are mostly connected to the temperature close to the surface, which is mainly a result of the negative energy balance, thus influencing surface-based inversions. At the second level, both temperature and humidity inversions are often caused by advection of comparably warm and moist air masses related to the passage of cyclones and their frontal systems. Hence, maxima in several inversion features are found in spring and fall, when cyclonic activity is strongest. Monthly mean profiles of humidity and temperature inversions reveal that elevated inversions are often obscured in average profiles due to large variations in inversion height and depth.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of the hydrology at Salinas Bay, Costa Rica, Eastern Tropical Pacific

Introduction: Salinas Bay is located in the warm pool of the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP), characterized by warm, shallow surface waters, a strong and shallow thermocline, and an important biological diversity. The primary productivity of the region is influenced by the coastal upwelling, which occurs during the boreal winter as a result of the strengthening of trade winds. Objective: To study the spatial and temporal dynamics of physical and chemical parameters at seven hydrographic stations in Salinas Bay, Costa Rica, through the analysis of CTD data, and relate the warm and cold events to the regional atmospheric conditions present when measuring the data. Methods: Seven hydrographic stations, sampled at Salinas Bay between August 2008 and December 2014, were selected. The variables processed for analysis are temperature, density, salinity, oxygen, chl-a and turbidity. Once the data was processed, 42 Hovmöller kind diagrams were plotted. Results: All variables, except turbidity, presented a seasonal periodicity associated with the upwelling. In general, colder and denser waters, higher salinity and chl-a concentrations and lower dissolved oxygen values were observed during the dry season, when the upwelling was active. Whereas, during the rainy season water masses were warmer and less dense, salinity and chl-a concentrations decreased and dissolved oxygen values tended to increase. Conclusions: The spatial and temporal dynamics of the hydrology in Salinas Bay was influenced by the coastal upwelling events. The region also presented an interannual variability associated with ENSO. Seasonal and interannual variability can counteract their effects on the oceanographic parameters when they coincide temporally.

Introducción: Bahía Salinas se encuentra embebida en la piscina de agua cálida del Pacífico Tropical Oriental (PTO) o del Este (PTE), caracterizada por aguas superficiales cálidas, poco salinas, una termoclina fuerte y poco profunda y una importante diversidad biológica. La productividad primaria de la región está influenciada por el afloramiento oceánico, el cual se presenta durante el invierno boreal como resultado del fortalecimiento de los vientos alisios. Objetivo: Estudiar la dinámica espacial y temporal de parámetros físico-químicos en siete estaciones hidrográficas en Bahía Salinas, Costa Rica, a través del análisis de datos de CTD; y relacionar los eventos cálidos y fríos con las condiciones atmosféricas presentes al medir los datos. Métodos: Se muestrearon y seleccionaron siete estaciones hidrográficas en Bahía Salinas entre agosto de 2008 y diciembre de 2014. Las variables procesadas para su análisis son temperatura, densidad, salinidad, oxígeno, clorofila-a y turbidez. Una vez procesados los datos se graficaron 42 diagramas tipo Hovmöller. Resultados: Todas las variables, excepto la turbidez, presentaron una periodicidad estacional asociada al afloramiento. En general, se observaron aguas más frías y densas, mayores concentraciones de salinidad y clorofila-a y valores menores de oxígeno disuelto durante la estación seca, cuando el afloramiento estaba activo. Por el contrario, durante la estación lluviosa las masas de agua eran más cálidas y menos densas, las concentraciones de salinidad y clorofila-a disminuyeron y los valores de oxígeno disuelto tendieron a aumentar. Conclusiones: La dinámica espacial y temporal de la hidrología en Bahía Salinas fue influenciada por los eventos de afloramiento costero. La región también presentó una variabilidad interanual, como la asociada con el ENOS. La variabilidad estacional y la interanual pueden contrarrestar sus efectos sobre los parámetros oceanográficos cuando coinciden temporalmente.

Secondary aerosol formation and its linkage with synoptic conditions during winter haze pollution over eastern China.

Eastern China has been facing severe winter haze pollution due mainly to secondary aerosol. Existing studies have suggested that stagnant weather or fast chemical production led to frequent haze in this region. However, few works focus on the linkage between secondary production of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium (SNA) and synoptic conditions, and their joint contribution to PM2.5. In this study, by combining in-situ measurements on meteorology and aerosol chemical composition at three main cities together with a regional model with improved diagnose scheme, we investigated the chemical formation and accumulation of main secondary composition, i.e. SNA under typical synoptic conditions. It is indicated that SNA did play a vital role in haze pollution across eastern China, contributing more than 40% to PM2.5 mass concentration. As most fast developing region, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) was slightly polluted during stable weather with local chemical production accounting for 61% SNA pollution. While under the influence of cold front, the pollution was aggravated and advection transport became the predominant contributive process (85%). Nevertheless, the chemical production of SNA was notably enhanced due to the uplift of air pollutant and elevated humidity ahead of the cold front, which then facilitated the heterogeneous and aqueous-phase oxidation of precursors. We also found the substantial difference in the phase equilibrium of nitrate over the land surface and ocean due to changes in temperature, ammonia availability and dry deposition. This study highlights the close link between synoptic weather and chemical production, and the resultant vertical and spatial heterogeneity of pollution.

Predicting the magnitude and the characteristics of the urban heat island in coastal cities in the proximity of desert landforms. The case of Sydney.

The urban heat island is a vastly documented climatological phenomenon, but when it comes to coastal cities, close to desert areas, its analysis becomes extremely challenging, given the high temporal variability and spatial heterogeneity. The strong dependency on the synoptic weather conditions, rather than on city-specific, constant features, hinders the identification of recurrent patterns, leading conventional predicting algorithms to fail. In this paper, an advanced artificial intelligence technique based on long short-term memory (LSTM) model is applied to gain insight and predict the highly fluctuating heat island intensity (UHII) in the city of Sydney, Australia, governed by the dualistic system of cool sea breeze from the ocean and hot western winds from the vast desert biome inlands. Hourly measurements of temperature, collected for a period of 18 years (1999-2017) from 8 different sites in a 50 km radius from the coastline, were used to train (80%) and test (20%) the model. Other inputs included date, time, and previously computed UHII, feedbacked to the model with an optimized time step of six hours. A second set of models integrated wind speed at the reference station to account for the sea breeze effect. The R2 ranged between 0.770 and 0.932 for the training dataset and between 0.841 and 0.924 for the testing dataset, with the best performance attained right in correspondence of the city hot spots. Unexpectedly, very little benefit (0.06-0.43%) was achieved by including the sea breeze among the input variables. Overall, this study is insightful of a rather rare climatological case at the watershed between maritime and desertic typicality. We proved that accurate UHII predictions can be achieved by learning from long-term air temperature records, provided that an appropriate predicting architecture is utilized.

Characteristics and formation mechanism of persistent extreme haze pollution events in Chengdu, southwestern China.

Extreme PM2.5 and nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) pollution often occurs simultaneously during the winter. To study the formation mechanism of two pollution events in Chengdu from 23 December 2016 to 31 January 2017, we explored the weather conditions, chemical composition, secondary pollutant conversion, aerosol hygroscopic growth, and potential source contribution function (PSCF) during this period. During the study period, the humidity was high (67.9%), the wind speed was low (1.0 m s-1), the height of the planetary boundary layer was low (463.4 m), and the atmosphere remained stationary. The potential source regions of PM2.5 and NMHCs were locally polluted sites in the southwestern and southern regions of Chengdu, affected by the southwesterly air mass trajectories. PM2.5 and sulfur oxidation ratios (SOR), nitrogen oxidation ratios (NOR) and secondary organic aerosol formation potential (SOAP) showed a strong positive correlation. As pollution increased, the conversion from SO2, NOx and NMHCs to sulfate, nitrate and SOAs increased, resulting in an increase in the secondary aerosol concentration. As the relative humidity increases, aerosols begin to undergo rapid hygroscopic growth, which seriously affects the visibility of the atmosphere. In general, pollutant emissions, static weather, and secondary conversion, among other factors, lead to the occurrence of this persistent extreme haze pollution.

Influence of haze pollution on water-soluble chemical species in PM2.5 and size-resolved particles at an urban site during fall.

To investigate the influence of haze on the chemical composition and formation processes of ambient aerosol particles, PM2.5 and size-segregated aerosol particles were collected daily during fall at an urban site of Gwangju, Korea. During the study period, the total concentration of secondary ionic species (SIS) contributed an average of 43.9% to the PM2.5, whereas the contribution of SIS to the PM2.5 during the haze period was 62.3%. The NO3- and SO42- concentrations in PM2.5 during the haze period were highly elevated, being 13.4 and 5.0 times higher than those during non-haze period, respectively. The PM, NO3-, SO42-, oxalate, water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC), and humic-like substances (HULIS) had tri-modal size distributions peaks at 0.32, 1.0, and 5.2µm during the non-haze and haze periods. However, during the non-haze period they exhibited dominant size distributions at the condensation mode peaking at 0.32µm, while on October 21 when the heaviest haze event occurred, they had predominant droplet mode size distributions peaking at 1.00µm. Moreover, strong correlations of WSOC and HULIS with SO42-, oxalate, and K+ at particle sizes of <1.8µm indicate that secondary processes and emissions from biomass burning could be responsible for WSOC and HULIS formations. It was found that the factors affecting haze formation could be the local stable synoptic conditions, including the weak surface winds and high surface pressures, the long-range transportation of haze from eastern China and upwind regions of the Korean peninsula, as well as the locally emitted and produced aerosol particles.

Saharan dust intrusions in Spain: Health impacts and associated synoptic conditions.

BACKGROUND: A lot of papers have been published about the impact on mortality of Sahara dust intrusions in individual cities. However, there is a lack of studies that analyse the impact on a country and scarcer if in addition the analysis takes into account the meteorological conditions that favour these intrusions. OBJECTIVES: The main aim is to examine the effect of Saharan dust intrusions on daily mortality in different Spanish regions and to characterize the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with such dust intrusions. METHODS: For determination of days with Saharan dust intrusions, we used information supplied by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food & Environment, it divides Spain into 9 main areas. In each of these regions, a representative province was selected. A time series analysis has been performed to analyse the relationship between daily mortality and PM10 levels in the period from 01.01.04 to 31.12.09, using Poisson regression and stratifying the analysis by the presence or absence of Saharan dust advections. RESULTS: The proportion of days on which there are Saharan dust intrusions rises to 30% of days. The synoptic pattern is characterised by an anticyclonic ridge extending from northern Africa to the Iberian Peninsula. Particulate matter (PM) on days with intrusions are associated with daily mortality, something that does not occur on days without intrusions, indicating that Saharan dust may be a risk factor for daily mortality. In other cases, what Saharan dust intrusions do is to change the PM-related mortality behaviour pattern, going from PM2.5. CONCLUSIONS: A study such as the one conducted here, in which meteorological analysis of synoptic situations which favour Saharan dust intrusions, is combined with the effect on health at a city level, would seem to be crucial when it comes to analysing the differentiated mortality pattern in situations of Saharan dust intrusions.