[Value of joint prediction model based on the modified systemic inflammatory response syndrome score for predicting mortality risk of patients with large area burns at early stage after admission].

Objective: To investigate the predictive value of the joint prediction model based on the modified systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score (hereinafter referred to as the joint prediction model) for the mortality risk of patients with large area burns within 24 hours after admission. Methods: The clinical data of 158 patients [111 males, 47 females, aged 40 (28, 50) years] admitted to the Department of Burn Surgery of the First Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University from January 2005 to January 2018, conforming to the study criteria, were analyzed retrospectively by the method of case-control study. The age, gender, total burn area, full-thickness burn area, injury cause, with or without inhalation injury, severity of inhalation injury, and tracheotomy condition of patients were recorded, and the modified SIRS score and the modified Baux score of patients were calculated. According to the final outcome, all patients were divided into survival group (n=123) and death group (n=35). The clinical data of patients between two groups, except for modified Baux score, were compared by chi-square test or Mann-Whitney U test to screen the death-related factors of patients. The indexes with statistically significant difference between the two groups were included in the multivariate logistic regression analysis to screen the independent risk factors related to the death of patients, and the prediction model was constructed by combining the modified SIRS score. The receiver's operating characteristic curves of the modified SIRS score, the modified Baux score, and the joint prediction model of 158 patients were drawn to analyze their ability to predict death of patients. The area under curve (AUC) of the receiver's operating characteristic and the sensitivity and specificity of optimal threshold were calculated, and the quality of AUC of the three prediction indexes was compared with Jonckheere-Terpstra test. Results: (1) There were statistically significant differences between the two groups in the modified SIRS score, age, total burn area, full-thickness burn area, severity of inhalation injury, with or without inhalation injury, and tracheotomy condition of patients (Z=-4.356, -3.568, -5.291, -6.052, -4.720, χ(2)=12.967, 19.692, P<0.01). (2) The modified SIRS score, age, full-thickness burn area were the independent risk factors for the death of patients with large area burn (odds ratio=2.699, 1.069, 1.029, 95% confidence interval=1.447-5.033, 1.029-1.109, 1.005-1.054, P<0.05). (3) The AUC of modified SIRS score, the joint prediction model, and the modified Baux score for predicting death of 158 patients within 24 hours after admission were 0.730, 0.879, and 0.895 respectively (95% confidence interval=0.653-0.797, 0.818-0.926, 0.836-0.938, P<0.01). The sensitivities of the three optimal threshold values to death prediction were 54.3%, 91.4%, and 82.9% respectively, while the specificities were 81.3%, 76.4%, and 84.6% respectively. The AUC quality of the joint prediction model was similar to that of the modified Baux score (95% confidence interval=-0.057-0.088, P>0.05), and both of them were significantly better than that of the modified SIRS score (95% confidence interval=0.072-0.259, 0.023-0.276, P<0.05 or P<0.01). Conclusions: Both the joint prediction model and the modified Baux score are considered to be good to predict the death rate of patients with large area burns at early stage after admission. However, the joint prediction model has better clinical practice value due to its advantage of simple scoring and easier access to data acquisition.

Value of joint prediction model based on the modified systemic inflammatory response syndrome score for predicting mortality risk of patients with large area burns at early stage after admission / 中华烧伤杂志

Objective@#To investigate the predictive value of the joint prediction model based on the modified systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score (hereinafter referred to as the joint prediction model) for the mortality risk of patients with large area burns within 24 hours after admission.@*Methods@#The clinical data of 158 patients [111 males, 47 females, aged 40 (28, 50) years] admitted to the Department of Burn Surgery of the First Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University from January 2005 to January 2018, conforming to the study criteria, were analyzed retrospectively by the method of case-control study. The age, gender, total burn area, full-thickness burn area, injury cause, with or without inhalation injury, severity of inhalation injury, and tracheotomy condition of patients were recorded, and the modified SIRS score and the modified Baux score of patients were calculated. According to the final outcome, all patients were divided into survival group (n=123) and death group (n=35). The clinical data of patients between two groups, except for modified Baux score, were compared by chi-square test or Mann-Whitney U test to screen the death-related factors of patients. The indexes with statistically significant difference between the two groups were included in the multivariate logistic regression analysis to screen the independent risk factors related to the death of patients, and the prediction model was constructed by combining the modified SIRS score. The receiver′s operating characteristic curves of the modified SIRS score, the modified Baux score, and the joint prediction model of 158 patients were drawn to analyze their ability to predict death of patients. The area under curve (AUC) of the receiver′s operating characteristic and the sensitivity and specificity of optimal threshold were calculated, and the quality of AUC of the three prediction indexes was compared with Jonckheere-Terpstra test.@*Results@#(1) There were statistically significant differences between the two groups in the modified SIRS score, age, total burn area, full-thickness burn area, severity of inhalation injury, with or without inhalation injury, and tracheotomy condition of patients (Z=-4.356, -3.568, -5.291, -6.052, -4.720, χ2=12.967, 19.692, P<0.01). (2) The modified SIRS score, age, full-thickness burn area were the independent risk factors for the death of patients with large area burn (odds ratio=2.699, 1.069, 1.029, 95% confidence interval=1.447-5.033, 1.029-1.109, 1.005-1.054, P<0.05). (3) The AUC of modified SIRS score, the joint prediction model, and the modified Baux score for predicting death of 158 patients within 24 hours after admission were 0.730, 0.879, and 0.895 respectively (95% confidence interval=0.653-0.797, 0.818-0.926, 0.836-0.938, P<0.01). The sensitivities of the three optimal threshold values to death prediction were 54.3%, 91.4%, and 82.9% respectively, while the specificities were 81.3%, 76.4%, and 84.6% respectively. The AUC quality of the joint prediction model was similar to that of the modified Baux score (95% confidence interval=-0.057-0.088, P>0.05), and both of them were significantly better than that of the modified SIRS score (95% confidence interval=0.072-0.259, 0.023-0.276, P<0.05 or P<0.01).@*Conclusions@#Both the joint prediction model and the modified Baux score are considered to be good to predict the death rate of patients with large area burns at early stage after admission. However, the joint prediction model has better clinical practice value due to its advantage of simple scoring and easier access to data acquisition.

Diagnosis accuracy of quick sequential organ failure assessment score for adult sepsis patient with soft tissue infection / 中华危重病急救医学

To assess the diagnosis accuracy of the quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) score for adult sepsis patient with soft tissue infection, and to assess the prognostic accuracy of the qSOFA score for septic shock. Methods A retrospective study was conducted. The patients with soft tissue infection admitted to the general surgery department of Beijing Hospital and the burns and plastic surgery department of Fourth Medical Center of PLA General Hospital from January 2012 to December 2018 were enrolled. Patients were divided into the sepsis group and the non-sepsis group according to whether sepsis occurred within 48 hours after diagnosis of infection. The baseline data, prognosis, and qSOFA, the change of sequential organ failure assessment (ΔSOFA), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) scores were compared between the two groups, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were also drawn to assess the diagnosis accuracy of the qSOFA and SIRS scores for adult sepsis patients with soft tissue infection and to assess the prognostic accuracy of the qSOFA, ΔSOFA and SIRS scores for septic shock of these patients. Results 192 patients were included in the study. Sepsis occurred in 79 patients (41.1%) within 48 hours after diagnosis of infection. Septic shock occurred in 28 patients (14.6%) during 28-day hospitalization and 6 patients (3.1%) died. Compared with non-sepsis group, more proportion of necrotizing fasciitis, septic shock and patients received mechanical ventilation (21.5% vs. 4.4%, 31.6% vs. 2.7%, 16.5% vs. 4.4%, all P < 0.01), with higher mortality (7.6% vs. 0%, P = 0.003) in sepsis group. ROC curve analysis showed that when the cut-off value of qSOFA ≥ 2, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and area under ROC curve (AUC) were 48.1%, 92.0%, 80.8%, 71.7% and 0.824 [95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 0.764-0.884, P < 0.01] respectively for diagnosis of sepsis caused by soft tissue infection. When the cut-off value of SIRS score ≥ 3, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and AUC were 89.8%, 48.6%, 55.0%, 87.3% and 0.721 (95%CI = 0.677-0.765, P < 0.01) respectively for diagnosis of sepsis caused by soft tissue infection. All scores of qSOFA ≥ 2, ΔSOFA ≥ 2 and SIRS score ≥3 could be used to predict septic shock (all P < 0.01). The AUC of ΔSOFA, qSOFA and SIRS scores were 0.767 (95%CI = 0.665-0.869), 0.840 (95%CI = 0.757-0.923) and 0.716 (95%CI = 0.596-0.835) respectively. Conclusions qSOFA ≥ 2 can be used as a rapid sepsis screening tool for adult patients with soft tissue infection. It is suggested that qSOFA or SIRS scores can be used to predict septic shock of adult patients with soft tissue infection initially.

Value of national early warning score, quick sequential organ failure assessment and systemic inflammatory response syndrome score in the evaluation of patients with heat stroke / 中国医师进修杂志

Objective To evaluate national early warning score (NEWS), quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score in predicting of the severity in patients with heat stroke. Methods NEWS, qSOFA and SIRS score of patients with heat stroke in the Central Hospital of Shenyang Medical College from July 31st to August 5th, 2018 were analyzed retrospectively. Results The age of patients in death group was older than that in survival group significantly (P < 0.05). The scores of NEWS, qSOFA and SIRS of patients in death group was higher than that in survival group significantly (P < 0.05). The relativity study showed a positive correlation between the score of NEWS, qSOFA and SIRS. The AUC of NEWS, qSOFA, and SIRS were 0.884, 0.804 and 0.627 respectively for the predicting of admission into Intensive Care Unit (ICU). The AUC of NEWS, qSOFA and SIRS were 0.972, 0.898, and 0.673 respectively for the predicting death. Conclusions Both NEWS and qSOFA can be used to predicting the admission into ICU and death. The specificity of NEWS is better in predicting of admission into ICU and death, and qSOFA is better in the sensitivity of predicting death.

Predictive value of four different scoring systems for septic patient's outcome: a retrospective analysis with 311 patients / 中华危重病急救医学

Objective To study the predicting value of four different scoring systems such as the acute physiology and chronichealth evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) score, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, quick SOFA (qSOFA) score and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score for the prognosis of septic patients. Methods A retrospective analysis were conducted. Septic patients in intensive care unit (ICU) of the First People's Hospital of Chenzhou form July 1st, 2012 to June 30th, 2016 were enrolled.Patients were divided into survival group and death group according to 28-day outcome. The difference of clinic data, the worst clinical index value within 24 hours, whether mechanical ventilation performed on first day, length of stay in ICU, APACHE Ⅱ score, SOFA score, qSOFA score and SIRS score were compared between the two groups. The significant different factors of sepsis outcome in univariate analysis were analyzed by multiple logistic regression, and the ability of four scoring systems was tested by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.Results 311 patients were enrolled in this study (221 survivals, 90 deaths, 28-day mortality rate 28.9%). Univariate analysis showed age, mechanical ventilation ratio, urine output, length of stay in ICU and the fastest heart beat rate (HR), the lowest systolic blood pressure (SBP), the lowest mean arterial pressure (MAP), HCO3-, minimum arterial blood oxygen partial pressure (PaO2), minimum oxygenation index (PaO2/FiO2), the maximum fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2), Na+, the highest concentration of blood urea nitrogen (BUN), the highest concentration of serum creatinine (SCr), minimum concentration of plasma albumin (Alb), Glasgow coma score (GCS) score, APACHE Ⅱ score, SOFA score, qSOFA score, within 24 hours after diagnosis were significantly different between two groups (allP < 0.05). Multiple logistic regression showed age [odds ratio (OR) = 1.388, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 1.074-1.794,P = 0.012], PaO2/FiO2 (OR = 0.459, 95%CI = 0.259-0.812,P = 0.007), concentration of plasma Alb (OR = 0.523, 95%CI = 0.303-0.903,P = 0.020), GCS score (OR = 0.541, 95%CI = 0.303-0.967,P = 0.038) and SOFA scores (OR = 3.189, 95%CI = 1.813-5.610,P = 0.000) were independent risk factors for sepsis outcome. ROC curve test showed the APACHE Ⅱ score, SOFA score and qSOFA score had the ability to predict the outcome in critical ill patients with sepsis, the SOFA score of the most powerful, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.700,when the cut-off value was 7.5 points, the sensitivity was 73.3% and specificity was 58.8%.Conclusions APACHE Ⅱ score, SOFA score and qSOFA score have the predictive properties for septic patients. SOFA score is an independent prognostic risk factor of sepsis, while qSOFA score can be widely used in clinical practice as the advantage of quick evaluating.

Correlation between serum procalcitonin concentration and systemic in-flammatory response syndrome score in patients with bacterial bloodstream infection / 中国感染控制杂志

Objective To evaluate the correlation between serum procalcitonin concentration and systemic inflam-matory response syndrome (SIRS)score in patients with bacterial bloodstream infection.Methods In January-De-cember,2012,96 patients with bacterial bloodstream infection in a hospital were selected as trial group,and these patients were divided into three groups(group A,B and C)according to SIRS score;84 patients without bacterial in-fection was as control group,PCT concentration of all patients were detected,and the correlation between PCT con-centration and SIRS score was analyzed.Results Among 96 patients with bacterial bloodstream infection,7 (7.29%)died (4 were in group B and 3 in group C);there was no death case in control group.PCT concentration in control group,group A,B and C of trial group were (0.28±0.09)ng/mL,(0.63±0.13)ng/mL,(3.68±1.01)ng/mL,and(7.45±1.53)ng/mL,respectively,the difference between each group was significant(P<0.01).Pairwise comparison of four groups showed statistical difference (P<0.001).Spearman correlation analysis on PCT concen-tration and SIRS score was conducted,correlation coefficient r=0.874(P<0.001)suggested positive correlation be-tween serum PCT concentration and SIRS score.Conclusion PCT concentration in patients with bacterial blood-stream infection and SIRS score is positively correlated,PCT concentration and SIRS score can be used as two mark-ers for assessing the extent and prognosis of bacterial bloodstream infection.

Effect of diammonium glycyrrhizinate and astragalus membranaceus injection on the comprehensive score of acute lung injury / 中国中西医结合急救杂志

Objective To explore the effect of diammonium glycyrrhizinate(DG) and astragalus membranaceus (AM) injection on the clinical comprehensive score in patients with acute lung injury (ALI). Methods According to the random number table method,a prospective random controlled study was conducted in which 60 cases of patients with ALI were divided into a study group and a control group(each,30 cases). Both groups received a comprehensive treatment based on the new guidelines,and the study group was additionally given DG and AM injection(DG 150 mg+AM 20 ml)one time per day for 7 days. The scores of lung injury,acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ(APACHEⅡ)and systemic inflammatory response syndrome(SIRS)were measured at baseline,3rd and 7th day after treatment,and ventilation support time and final disease mortality rate were also calculated in all the patients. Results There were no statistically significant differences between the two groups in the scores of lung injury,APACHEⅡand SIRS before treatment and after treatment for 3 days(all P>0.05),with prolonged treatment,the above indexes were significantly reduced compared with those before treatment in the two groups,and the decreases in scores of indexes in study group was more significant than those in control group after treatment(lung injury score:1.31±0.99 vs. 2.29±1.08,APACHEⅡscore:18.43±8.17 vs. 24.23±6.98,SIRS score:1.69±0.89 vs. 2.60±1.04,all P0.05). Conclusion The results suggest that DG and AM injection improve the scores of lung injury,APACHEⅡand SIRS,and alleviate the lung injury,so that the injection is beneficial to the early weaning from the ventilator to support treatment in patients with acute lung injury,and has certain therapeutic effect on ALI.