Comparing, evaluating and combining statistical species distribution models and CLIMEX to forecast the distributions of emerging crop pests.

BACKGROUND: Forecasting the spread of emerging pests is widely requested by pest management agencies in order to prioritise and target efforts. Two widely used approaches are statistical Species Distribution Models (SDMs) and CLIMEX, which uses ecophysiological parameters. Each have strengths and weaknesses. SDMs can incorporate almost any environmental condition and their accuracy can be formally evaluated to inform managers. However, accuracy is affected by data availability and can be limited for emerging pests, and SDMs usually predict year-round distributions, not seasonal outbreaks. CLIMEX can formally incorporate expert ecophysiological knowledge and predicts seasonal outbreaks. However, the methods for formal evaluation are limited and rarely applied. We argue that both approaches can be informative and complementary, but we need tools to integrate and evaluate their accuracy. Here we develop such an approach, and test it by forecasting the potential global range of the tomato pest Tuta absoluta. RESULTS: The accuracy of previously developed CLIMEX and new statistical SDMs were comparable on average, but the best statistical SDM techniques and environmental data substantially outperformed CLIMEX. The ensembled approach changes expectations of T. absoluta's spread. The pest's environmental tolerances and potential range in Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, Central Asia and Australia will be larger than previous estimates. CONCLUSION: We recommend that CLIMEX be considered one of a suite of SDM techniques and thus evaluated formally. CLIMEX and statistical SDMs should be compared and ensembled if possible. We provide code that can be used to do so when employing the biomod suite of SDM techniques. © 2021 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Parámetros poblacionales de Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) y pérdidas asociadas en tomate de invernadero / Population parameters of Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) and associated losses in greenhouse tomato

Introducción: El minador de hojas de tomate, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick), la plaga más peligrosa para la producción de tomate, Solanum lycopersicum L., en todo el mundo; puede causar pérdidas totales y es difícil de controlar. Por lo tanto, comprender la dinámica de sus poblaciones en el cultivo es una prioridad para mitigar el daño. Objetivo: Aquí, los parámetros de la población de T. absoluta fueron evaluados en tomate var. Sonero en invernadero, en tres sistemas de gestión (comercial, población máxima y control total). Métodos: Durante 25 semanas en La Unión, Antioquia, Colombia, se aplicaron modelos matemáticos para describir las poblaciones de larvas y adultos (machos) en el tiempo, en relación con los parámetros de producción y las pérdidas asociadas. Resultados: La tasa de crecimiento intrínseco fue de 0.4466 larvas por semana. Los modelos gaussianos y exponenciales describieron mejor a la población en el tiempo. Las pérdidas se asociaron con el peso y la cantidad de frutos comercializables, y también con el peso total de producción y la cantidad de racimos y frutos totales. Conclusión: Las larvas de T. absoluta tienen un crecimiento exponencial en invernadero ventilado, con una tasa de crecimiento intrínseca menor que la calculada por las tablas de vida en el laboratorio.

Introduction: The tomato leafminer, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick), the most threatening pest for tomato, Solanum lycopersicum L., production worldwide, may cause total losses, and is difficult to control. Thus, understanding its populations dynamic in the crop is a priority to mitigate damage. Objective: Herein, population parameters of T. absoluta were evaluated in tomato var. Sonero in the greenhouse, in three management systems (commercial, maximum population and total control). Methods: During 25 weeks in La Union, Antioquia, Colombia, mathematical models were applied to describe the populations of larvae and adults (males) in time, as related to production parameters and associated losses. Results: The intrinsic growth rate was 0.447 larvae per week. The Gaussian and exponential models described best the population over time. The losses were associated with weight and number of marketable fruits, and with total production weight, and number of clusters and total fruits. Conclusion: T. absoluta larvae have growth exponentially in a ventilated greenhouse, with a smaller intrinsic growth rate than that calculated by life tables in the laboratory.

Pest kill rate as aggregate evaluation criterion to rank biological control agents: a case study with Neotropical predators of Tuta absoluta on tomato.

Tuta absoluta (Meyrick), a key pest of tomato, is quickly spreading over the world and biological control is considered as one of the control options. Worldwide more than 160 species of natural enemies are associated with this pest, and an important challenge is to quickly find an effective biocontrol agent from this pool of candidate species. Evaluation criteria for control agents are presented, with the advantages they offer for separating potentially useful natural enemies from less promising ones. Next, an aggregate parameter for ranking agents is proposed: the pest kill rate km. We explain why the predator's intrinsic rate of increase cannot be used for comparing the control potential of predators or parasitoids, while km can be used to compare both types of natural enemies. As an example, kill rates for males, females and both sexes combined of three Neotropical mirid species (Campyloneuropsis infumatus (Carvalho), Engytatus varians (Distant) and Macrolophus basicornis (Stål)) were determined, taking all life-history data (developmental times, survival rates, total nymphal and adult predation, sex ratios and adult lifespan) into account. Based on the value for the intrinsic rate of increase (rm) for T. absoluta and for the kill rate km of the predators, we predict that all three predators are potentially able to control the pest, because their km values are all higher than the rm of the pest. Using only km values, we conclude that E. varians is the best candidate for control of T. absoluta on tomato, with C. infumatus ranking second and M. basicornis last.

Susceptibility of Seven Selected Tomato Cultivars to Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae): Implications for Its Management.

Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) is a serious pest originating from South America that affects tomato production in many countries, particularly in Iran (since 2010). In this study, by using age-stage, two-sex life-table parameters, the resistance of seven tomato cultivars, namely, 'Primo Early', 'Rio Grande', 'Cal JN3', 'Petomech', 'Early Urbana Y', 'Super 2270', and 'Super Strain B' to T. absoluta, was evaluated under laboratory conditions (25 ± 1 °C, 60 ± 5% RH, and a photoperiod of 16:8 (L:D) h). Larval and pupal periods were longest on Early Urbana Y, 13.86 and 6.52 d, respectively, and shortest on Cal JN3, 10.92 and 5.5 d, respectively. The longest and shortest development times of immature stages lasted 26.42 and 20.83 d on Early Urbana Y and Cal JN3, respectively. Male and female adult longevity was longest on Early Urbana Y, 30.42 and 38.52 d, respectively, and shortest on Cal JN3, 11.67 and 18.8 d, respectively. The net reproductive rate (R0) ranged between 80.94 (Cal JN3) and 45.87 (Primo Early) offspring. The lowest and the highest values of the intrinsic rate of increase (r) and finite rate of increase (λ) were on Early Urbana Y and Cal JN3, 0.1052 and 0.1522 and 1.1109 and 1.1644 d-1, respectively. The mean generation time (T) on different cultivars varied from 30.47 to 37.28 d. Our results indicated that Cal JN3 was the most susceptible to infestation and Primo Early and Early Urbana Y were the most resistant to T. absoluta among the tomato cultivars tested.

Plant Resistance to the Moth Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera:Gelechiidae) in Tomato Cultivars.

The resistance of 11 tomato cultivars (Ps-6515, Berlina, Poolad, Petoprid-5, Zaman, Matin, Golsar, Sandokan-F1, Golshan-616, Sadeen-95 and Sadeen-21) to the tomato moth, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera:Gelechiidae) was investigated under field conditions. A randomized complete block design was used with three replications. Data analysis indicated that there were significant differences (P < 0.05) among cultivars regarding leaflet damage, leaf damage, overall plant damage, number of mines per leaf, number of holes on the stem, and fruit. Our findings revealed that the cultivars Berlina, Golsar, Poolad, and Zaman were less suitable cultivars, suggesting that they are more resistant to the tomato moth than the other cultivars. The high density of leaf trichomes present in the cultivars Berlina, Zaman, and Golsar can be one of the possible causes of resistance to T. absoluta. Knowledge of the extent of susceptibility or resistance of cultivars to a pest on a crop is one of the fundamental components of integrated pest management (IPM) programs for any crop.

Interspecific interactions between two Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) larval parasitoids with contrasting life histories.

Interspecific interactions between two larval parasitoids of Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) with partially overlapping host niches were studied: the idiobiont ectoparasitoid Dineulophus phthorimaeae De Santis, and the koinobiont endoparasitoid Pseudapanteles dignus (Muesebeck). T. absoluta is an important pest of tomato crops worldwide, and its management could be improved by understanding the competitive interactions and potential coexistence between these two parasitoids. Firstly, a 15-min fixed time laboratory test evaluated the host-searching ability of adult D. phthorimaeae and P. dignus wasps on T. absoluta larvae. Secondly, D. phthorimaeae host discrimination against endoparasitized and non-endoparasitized hosts by P. dignus, at different adult female ages, was experimentally examined. D. phthorimaeae wasps spent significantly more time in general searching in the presence of its competitor than in its absence, but, parasitism was only effective by P. dignus. Older D. phthorimaeae wasps discriminated significantly less than young wasps between T. absoluta larvae parasitized and unparasitized by P. dignus, and an interaction took place by non-concurrent host-feeding. Intra-guild predation of P. dignus larvae by D. phthorimaeae female feeding behaviour might have a minor effect in this system. Results are discussed in the context of literature supporting diverse evidence of coexistence in other parasitoid-host systems, with implications for T. absoluta biological control.

Laboratory Population Parameters and Field Impact of the Larval Endoparasitoid Pseudapanteles dignus (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) on its Host Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) in Tomato Crops in Argentina.

The tomato moth, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), is a key pest of tomato, Lycopersicon esculentum L., crops in Central and South America. At present it is dispersing rapidly in Africa and Eurasian continents as an invasive pest, threatening worldwide tomato production. Pseudapanteles dignus (Muesebeck) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) is an American endoparasitoid reported as the main natural enemy of T. absoluta in commercial tomato. To gain knowledge of the potential role of P. dignus in the biological control of this pest, we determined its population parameters in laboratory and the parasitoid's impact on T. absoluta in the field. In laboratory, lifetime fecundity was 193 eggs per female, and longevity was 24 and 26 d for female and male, respectively. The finite rate of increase (λ) was 1.15 per female per day and the intrinsic rate of natural increase (r(m)) was 0.14. The net reproductive rate (R(0)) was found to be 51.2, and generation time (T) 28.8 d. The time for doubling the population (DT) was 5 d. Furthermore, field parasitism of T. absoluta varied between 33 and 64% in the different years studied. Population parameters estimated in this study can be considered baseline information for a mass-rearing protocol of this parasitoid. Moreover, growth rates of P. dignus, particularly r(m), and its impact on field populations of T. absoluta indicated that this parasitoid is a valuable candidate for biological control of this pest.

Estudios biológicos de Trichogrammatoidea bactrae Nagaraja (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae), parasitoide de huevos de Tuta absoluta Meyrick (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) / Biological studies on Trichogrammatoidea bactrae Nagaraja (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae), egg parasitoid of Tuta absoluta Meyrick (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae)

The tomato moth, Tuta absoluta Meyrick, is one of the most important tomato pests in South America. In Argentina, management strategies include only chemical control. In this work, the parasitoid wasp Trichogrammatoidea bactrae Nagaraja was evaluated as a potential natural enemy against this pest. Biological and population parameters were estimated by developing a life table under laboratory conditions at 25 ± 1ºC, 14:10 photoperiod and 60 ± 10 percent RH. Three cohorts of 26-30 T. bactrae females each were placed with one of the three following treatments: 1 - Sitotroga cerealella (Olivier) eggs on a piece of cardboard; 2 - S. cerealella eggs on a piece of tomato leaf, and 3- T. absoluta eggs on a piece on tomato leaf. The following parameters were estimated for each cohort: survival (egg to adult), longevity, fecundity and oviposition period of females, sex proportion of the F1, net rate of reproduction (Ro), mean generation time (T) and intrinsic rate of population increase (r m). Survival of the T. bactrae immatures was higher than 90 percent on both, S. cerealella and T. absoluta eggs. The female survival curves corresponded to type III and showed no significant differences among treatments. The three cohorts did not show significant differences between sex ratio, female longevity, oviposition period, fecundity and the population parameters studied. These results indicate that T. bactrae would be a potential biological control agent of T. absoluta.