Trajectories of Opioid Use Before and After Cancer Diagnosis: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Opioid use prior to cancer diagnosis increases the likelihood of long-term use during survivorship, however, patterns of use before and after diagnosis are not understood. METHODS: We used population-based dispensing data linked with cancer and death notifications to identify two cohorts of adults residing in New South Wales initiating opioids within 24 months prior to a first cancer diagnosed between 2014 and 2016: 'survivors' (alive 24 months following diagnosis) and 'decedents' (died within 24 months). We used group-based trajectory modelling to identify trajectories of monthly opioid dispensings and dispensed oral morphine equivalent milligrams (OMEmg) during the 24 months before/after cancer diagnosis. RESULTS: There were 21,843 survivors with four prediagnosis opioid dispensing trajectories: infrequent (58% of the cohort), late increasing (26%), moderate (10%), and sustained dispensing (6%). We observed an overall increase in dispensed OMEmg of 83 OMEmg (95% CI: 76-91) during the month of diagnosis, with strong opioid formulations comprising most treatment postdiagnosis. Within each prediagnosis opioid trajectory group, we observed five to six postdiagnosis trajectory groups, including no opioid dispensing. Moderate and sustained prediagnosis groups had large proportions of people continuing or increasing opioid dispensing after diagnosis, while small proportions discontinued opioid treatment. We observed similar trajectories in the decedent cohort. CONCLUSIONS: There is considerable heterogeneity in opioid use before and after cancer diagnosis. Our findings suggest noncancer factors drive a significant proportion of postdiagnosis opioid use, but use increased significantly from the month of cancer diagnosis and never returned to prediagnosis levels.

Long-term relatively high dietary manganese intake could decrease the risk of hyperuricemia: Twelve-year distinct dietary manganese consumption trajectories and the China Health and Nutrition Survey.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Currently, the relationship between dynamic changes in dietary manganese (Mn) intake and risk of hyperuricemia (HU) is still unclear. This study aimed to identify dietary Mn consumption trajectories in the Chinese adults and assess their relation with the risk of HU. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cohort data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) 1997-2009 were employed in this study. Overall, 6886 adult participants were included. Participants were designated into subgroups based on the trajectories of dietary Mn consumption by sex. Cox proportional hazard models were used to explore the associations between different trajectories and the risk of HU. For men, compared with low stable trajectory group, moderate to high trajectory group was significantly related to reduced risk of HU (HR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.38 to 0.98) with adjustment for covariates. TC, HDL-C, ApoB, and TG exerted partial regulation function between trajectories and HU. For women, compared with low stable trajectory group, high stable trajectory group was significantly related to reduced risk of HU (HR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.60 to 0.95) with adjustment for covariates. Similarly, TC, HDL-C, ApoB, and ApoA exerted partial regulation function between trajectories and HU. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term relatively high dietary Mn consumption may have a protective effect against HU in Chinese adults. The differences in HU-related factors among different dietary Mn intake trajectories partially regulated the association between these trajectories and HU.

Effect of social participation on the trajectories of activities of daily living disability among community-dwelling older adults: a 7-year community-based cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Studies examining the effects of social participation on activities of daily living (ADL) disability are still scarce. AIM: To assess the reciprocal relationship between ADL disability trajectories and social participation among older Chinese people aged ≥ 60 years. METHODS: This study included 2976 participants aged ≥ 60 years in six waves of a community-based survey from 2015 to 2022. Basic activities of daily living (BADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) were used to assess the ADL disability in each survey. Social participation was assessed by involvement in four social activities and an extensive social participation score. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify potential heterogeneity in longitudinal changes over 7 years and explore associations between baseline predictors of group membership and these trajectories. RESULTS: Two BADL disability trajectories were identified: stable (94.8%) and increase (5.2%). Additionally, three IADL disability trajectories were distinguished: stable (73.2%), moderate (20.2%), and increase (6.6%). After controlling for the potential covariates, each point increase in the extensive social participation score correlated with a 17% decrease in the odds of older individuals belonging to the increase BADL trajectory group (OR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.68-1.00). For IADL, it decreased the odds of being assigned to the moderate trajectory group by 16% (OR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.75-0.95) and to the increase trajectory group by 23% (OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.64-0.93). CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of social participation among older individuals were more likely to be classified as stable trajectories in both BADL and IADL. Increased participation in social activities by community-dwelling elderly adults may promote healthy aging.

Associations of prenatal blood pressure trajectory and variability with child neurodevelopment at 2 years old.

BACKGROUND: The patterns of blood pressure (BP) change throughout the pregnancy were related to adverse birth outcomes. However, little is known about the long-term effect of BP change patterns on child neurodevelopment. This study aimed to explore the relationship between the BP trajectory and BP variability during pregnancy and early childhood neurodevelopment. METHOD: A total of 2797 mother-newborn pairs were derived from the Wuhan Healthy Baby Cohort Study. BP was measured during each antenatal visit, and Mental and Psychomotor Development Indexes (MDI and PDI) were assessed using the Bayley Scales of Infant Development (BSID) when the children were 2 years old. Delayed neurodevelopment was defined as scores of PDI or MDI less than - 1SD relative to the mean score of the study population. A group-based multi-trajectory model was adopted to identify multi-trajectories of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP). Visit-to-visit BP variability was assessed by the coefficient of variation (CV), standard deviation (SD), and average real variability (ARV). Generalized linear models and multivariate logistic regressions were used to assess the associations of BP trajectories and variability with BSID scores and delayed neurodevelopment, respectively. RESULTS: Five distinct trajectories for SBP and DBP were identified, namely, "Low-increasing," "Low-stable," "Moderate-decreasing," "Moderate-increasing," and "High-stable" groups. Compared with the "Low-stable" group, the children whose mothers' BP fell into the other four groups had lower PDI scores, and mothers in the "Low-increasing," "Moderate-increasing," and "Moderate-decreasing" groups had 43% (OR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.01, 2.03), 48% (OR: 1.48, 95% CI: 1.05, 2.08) and 45% (OR:1.45, 95% CI: 1.03, 2.04) higher risk of having offspring with delayed psychomotor neurodevelopment, respectively. High DBP variability was associated with lower BSID scores, and delayed psychomotor neurodevelopment (OR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.92 for DBP-SD; OR = 1.53, 95% CI: 1.16, 2.02 for DBP-CV). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that BP change patterns assessed by multi-trajectory and visit-to-visit variability were associated with lower BSID scores and delayed neurodevelopment. Health professionals should be aware of the influence of BP level and its oscillations during pregnancy on the risk of delayed neurodevelopment.

Group-Based Trajectory Modeling of Fluid Balance in Elderly Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke: Analysis from Multicenter ICUs.

INTRODUCTION: Acute ischemic stroke (AIS) significantly contributes to severe disability and mortality among the elderly. This study aims to explore the association between longitudinal fluid balance (FB) trajectories and clinical outcomes in elderly patients with AIS. Our hypothesis posits the existence of multiple latent trajectories of FB in patients with AIS during the initial 7 days following ICU admission. METHODS: Patients (age ≥ 65 years) with AIS and continuous FB records were identified from two large databases. Group-based trajectory modeling identified latent groups with similar 7-day FB trajectories. Subsequently, multivariable logistic and quasi-Poisson regression were employed to evaluate the relationship between trajectory groups and outcomes. Additionally, nonlinear associations between maximum fluid overload (FO) and outcomes were analyzed using restricted cubic spline models. To further validate our findings, subgroup and sensitivity analysis were conducted. RESULTS: A total of 1146 eligible patients were included in this study, revealing three trajectory patterns were identified: low FB (84.8%), decreasing FB (7.2%), and high FB (7.9%). High FB emerged as an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality. Compared with those without FO, patients with FO had a 1.57-fold increased risk of hospital mortality (adjusted odd ratio (OR) 1.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-2.27), 2.37-fold increased risk of adverse kidney event (adjusted OR 2.37, 95% CI 1.56-3.59), and 1.33-fold increased risk of prolonged ICU stay (adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.33, 95% CI 1.19-1.48). The risk of hospital mortality and adverse kidney event increased linearly with rising maximum FO (P for non-linearity = 0.263 and 0.563, respectively). CONCLUSION: Daily FB trajectories were associated with adverse outcomes in elderly patients with AIS. Regular assessment of daily fluid status and restriction of FO are crucial for the recovery of critically ill patients.

Group-based trajectory modeling for fear of cancer recurrence in cancer survivors: a systematic review.

PURPOSE: We aimed to systematically review studies that used a group-based trajectory modeling approach to explore the categories of fear of cancer recurrence (FCR) trajectories and their predictors in cancer survivors. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched. Three authors independently reviewed the literature for predefined eligibility criteria. The Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tools for Cohort Studies and the Guidelines for Reporting on Latent Trajectory Studies were used to assess the quality of included studies. A qualitative synthesis of the included studies was performed. RESULTS: Ninety-eight studies were retrieved after removing duplicates, and 11 studies met the criteria for inclusion. There are four types of FCR trajectories: stable, decreasing, increasing, and stable-then-decreasing-then-increasing. The following factors were considered significant predictors of FCR trajectory category in at least one of the included studies: age, race, income, education, employment, cancer stage, physical symptoms, depression, anxiety, satisfaction with medical care, and selected cognitive and behavioral factors. CONCLUSIONS: There was considerable heterogeneity among the studies included in study design and FCR trajectory results. Factors that significantly predicted FCR trajectory categories mostly focused on psychological characteristics. The correlation of sociodemographic and disease-related predictors with FCR trajectory categories was not consistent among the included studies. IMPLICATIONS FOR CANCER SURVIVORS: We suggest that future scholars should incorporate more psychological factors when identifying cancer survivors who persistently maintain a high level of FCR and developing FCR mitigation measures.

Gestational weight trajectory and risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes among women with gestational diabetes mellitus: A retrospective cohort study.

The aim of this study was to explore gestational weight gain (GWG) trajectories and their associations with adverse pregnancy outcomes. A retrospective cohort study including 11,064 women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) was conducted between 2015 and 2019 in China. The latent class trajectory model was used to identify GWG trajectories, and logistic regression was performed to examine odds ratio (OR) of pregnancy outcomes. Three trajectories of GWG were identified in these 11,604 women with GDM. Trajectory 1: 64.02% of women had sustained moderate GWG throughout pregnancy; Trajectory 2: 17.75% of women showed a high initial GWG but followed by a low GWG from the third trimester until delivery; Trajectory 3: 18.23% had low initial GWG but followed by drastic GWG from the second trimester until delivery. Compared with pregnant women with Trajectory 1, women with Trajectory 2 had a higher risk of large for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 1.29, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12-1.48) but at a lower risk of having hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (AOR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.57-0.96). Women in Trajectory 3 were more likely to develop small for gestational age (AOR: 2.12, 95% CI: 1.62-2.78), low birthweight (AOR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.07-2.08), preterm birth (AOR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.05-1.63), caesarean section (AOR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.112-1.42) and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (AOR: 2.24, 95% CI: 1.82-2.76). The association of GWG trajectory with adverse pregnancy outcomes differs across prepregnancy body mass index and GWG categories. Women with a slow initial GWG but followed by drastic GWG had higher risks of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Early clinical recognition of poor GWG trajectory will contribute to early intervention in high-risk groups to minimise adverse outcomes.

Sex differences in cognitive function trajectories and their determinants in older adults: Evidence from the Chinese longitudinal healthy longevity survey.

OBJECTIVES: To examine sex differences in the cognitive trajectories of a nationally representative sample of older people living in China and to explore potential determinants of these trajectories. METHODS: The study included 2230 women and 2171 men who were cognitively healthy and aged over 60 at the first observation from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey based on the 2008-2018 cohort. Cognitive function was measured using the Chinese version of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify potential heterogeneity of longitudinal changes over the 10 years in each gender. Logistic regression was used to investigate associations between baseline characteristics (age, education, fertility history, sleep length, physical activity, and health status and behaviors) and trajectory classes. RESULTS: Three trajectories (labeled stable, slow decline, and rapid decline) were identified according to the changes in MMSE scores for both women and men. For the women, both the slow and rapid decline groups accounted for a larger proportion (14.7% and 11.0%, respectively) than the male decline groups (8.1% and 6.6%, respectively), and the women had a lower baseline MMSE score with a faster decline. In the multivariable logistic regression analyses, older age, less education, older age at first birth, poorer functional abilities, hearing impairment, and lower baseline MMSE scores were significantly associated with cognitive decline in both the female and male groups compared to the stable group. For the women, sleeping over 9 h was also associated with a rapid cognitive decline trajectory, while current exercise and being overweight/obese were protective factors against cognitive decline. CONCLUSIONS: The women had an overall more serious cognitive decline than men. The potential determinants of cognitive decline identified in this study could be considered for developing specific intervention strategies aimed at promoting a healthy brain and preventing cognitive decline in different sexes, especially in low-income and developing countries.

Association between nintedanib adherence trajectory and healthcare use among idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis patients.

BACKGROUND: Although inverse associations have been found between medication adherence and healthcare use and spending outcomes in many clinical settings, no studies to date have examined these relationships for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) initiating nintedanib. We build on our prior study that used group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) to compare inpatient hospitalization and medical care spending outcomes between groups of patients with different nintedanib adherence trajectories. METHODS: This analysis used 100% Medicare data and included beneficiaries with IPF who initiated nintedanib during 10/01/2014-12/31/2018. The sample consisted of community-dwelling older adults (≥ 66 years) with continuous coverage in Medicare Parts A (inpatient care), B (outpatient care) and D (prescription drugs) for one year before (baseline) and after (follow-up) initiating nintedanib. Patients were assigned to the GBTM-derived adherence trajectory group closest to their own nintedanib adherence experience. All-cause and IPF-related hospitalization events and total medical spending were measured during the follow-up period. Unadjusted and adjusted regression models were estimated to compare outcomes between patients in different nintedanib adherence trajectories. RESULTS: Among the 1,798 patients initiating nintedanib, the mean age was 75.4 years, 61.1% were male, and 91.1% were non-Hispanic white. The best-fitting GBTM had five adherence trajectories: high adherence, moderate adherence, high-then-poor adherence, delayed-poor adherence, and early-poor adherence. All-cause hospitalizations and total all-cause medical spending were higher among patients in the high-then-poor, delayed-poor and early-poor adherence trajectories than those in the high adherence trajectory. For example, adjusted total all-cause medical spending was $4,876 (95% CI: $1,470 to $8,282) higher in the high-then-poor adherence trajectory, $3,639 (95% CI: $1,322 to $5,955) higher in the delayed-poor adherence trajectory and $3,907 (95% CI: $1,658 to $6,156) higher in the early-poor adherence trajectory compared with the high adherence trajectory. IPF-related hospitalizations and medical care spending were higher among those in the high-then-poor adherence trajectory compared with those in the high adherence trajectory. CONCLUSIONS: Poor adherence to nintedanib was associated with all-cause hospitalizations and medical costs. Therefore, improved adherence programs, such as support programs, can be implemented to reduce economic burden.

Association between the trajectory of ideal cardiovascular health metrics and incident chronic kidney disease among 27,635 older adults in northern China-a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of relevant studies evaluating the long-term impact of cardiovascular health factor (CVH) metrics on chronic kidney disease (CKD). OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the long-term change in CVH metrics in older people and explores the relationship between CVH metrics trajectory and CKD. METHODS: In total, 27,635 older people aged over 60 from the community-based Tianjin Chronic Kidney Disease Cohort study were enrolled. The participants completed five annual physical examinations between January 01, 2014, and December 31, 2018, and a subsequent follow-up between January 01, 2019, and December 31, 2021. CVH metrics trajectories were established by the group-based trajectory model to predict CKD risk. The relationships between baseline CVH, CVH change (ΔCVH), and CKD risk were also explored by logistic regression and restricted cubic spline regression model. In addition, likelihood ratio tests were used to compare the goodness of fit of the different models. RESULTS: Six distinct CVH metrics trajectories were identified among the participants: low-stable (11.19%), low-medium-stable (30.58%), medium-stable (30.54%), medium-high-decreased (5.46%), medium-high-stable (18.93%), and high-stable (3.25%). After adjustment for potential confounders, higher CVH metrics trajectory was associated with decreased risk of CKD (P for trend < 0.001). Comparing the high-stable with the low-stable group, the risk of CKD decreased by 46%. All sensitivity analyses, including adjusting for baseline CVH and removing each CVH component from the total CVH, produced consistent results. Furthermore, the likelihood ratio test revealed that the model established by the CVH trajectory fit better than the baseline CVH and Δ CVH. CONCLUSION: The higher CVH metrics trajectory and improvement of CVH metrics were associated with decreased risk of CKD. This study emphasized the importance of improving CVH to achieve primary prevention of CKD in older people.

Trajectories of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratios during neoadjuvant chemotherapy correlate with short- and long-term outcomes in gastric cancer: a group-based trajectory analysis.

BACKGROUND: Systemic inflammatory factors can predict the survival prognosis of gastric cancer (GC) patients after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT). However, whether longitudinal changes in systemic inflammatory factors are associated with short - and long-term outcomes has not been reported. METHODS: This study is a retrospective analysis of 216 patients with advanced gastric cancer who received NACT between January 2011 and June 2019, comparing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for screening suitable inflammatory markers. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was used to analyze longitudinal changes in inflammatory markers during NACT to identify different potential subgroups and to compare postoperative complications, recurrence-free survival (RFS), and overall survival (OS) among subgroups. RESULTS: Ultimately, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) had the highest area under the curve (AUC) value in predicting prognosis was included in the GBTM analysis. Three trajectories of NLR were obtained: Stable group (SG) (n = 89), Ascent-descend group (ADG) (n = 80) and Continuous descend group (CDG) (n = 47). Compared with SG, ADG and CDG are associated with an increased risk of postoperative recurrence and death. The median time of RFS and OS of SG was longer than that of ADG and CDG (median RFS 81 vs. 44 and 22 months; median OS 69 vs. 41 and 30 months). In addition, CDG had significantly higher postoperative serious complications than SG and ADG (17 (36.2%) vs. 17 (19.1%) and 12 (15.0%); p = 0.005). CONCLUSION: There were different trajectories of NLR during NACT, and these potential trajectories were significantly associated with severe postoperative complications, recurrence, and mortality in patients with GC.

Trajectories and Predictors for the Development of Clinically Significant Weight Gain in Children and Adolescents Prescribed Second-Generation Antipsychotics.

Background: As many as 60% of pediatric patients taking second-generation antipsychotics (SGA) experience weight gain (antipsychotic-induced weight gain). However, the subgroup that experienced substantial weight increase was poorly understood. This study aimed to identify the development and predictors of clinically significant weight gain (CSWG) among pediatric SGA recipients. Methods: A retrospective analysis of the 2016 to 2021 IQVIA Ambulatory EMR-US database was conducted. The study cohort comprised SGA-naive patients ages 5 to 19, continuously prescribed SGA for ≥90 days. CSWG was defined as a weight gain in BMI z-score >0.5. The development of CSWG was described using the group-based trajectory model approach, and multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to examine the risk factors associated with the CSWG trajectories. Results: Of the 16,262 SGA recipients who met the inclusion criteria, 4 distinctive CSWG trajectories were identified: (1) Rapid (14.6%), (2) Gradual (12.6%), (3) Transit (7%), and (4) no CSWG (65.8%). Factors associated with a higher likelihood of having rapid or gradual CSWG versus nonsignificant weight gain were being younger (OR [95% CI] = 12-17 vs. 5-11, Rapid, 0.727 [0.655-0.806]; Gradual, 0.776 [0.668-0.903]), male (Rapid, 1.131 [1.021-1.253]), non-Hispanic White (Black vs. White: Rapid, 0.833 [0.709-0.98]), with lower baseline BMI z-score (Rapid, 0.376 [0.361-0.392]; Gradual, 0.449 [0.424-0.476]), and receiving olanzapine as the initial SGA (Rapid, 1.38 [1.093-1.74]). The Area under the Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) Curve for the comparison of rapid and gradual CSWG with no CSWG trajectory were 0.83 and 0.80, respectively. Conclusions: SGA recipients experienced four distinctive CSWG trajectories (Rapid, Gradual, Transient, and No CSWG). The risk of CSWG could be predicted using patient characteristics at the SGA initiation. This insight highlights the importance of personalized monitoring and timely intervention strategies for at-risk individuals who experienced persistent CSWG in real practice.

Integrating satellite and model data to explore spatial-temporal changes in aerosol optical properties and their meteorological relationships in northwest India.

This study aims to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of Aerosol Optical Properties across Northwest India using aerosol data from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) sensors from 2003 to 2022. Therefore, this study investigated the decadal, interannual, and seasonal changes in aerosol optical properties, vegetation index, and meteorological parameters in the northwest Indian region (8 boxes). Using GIOVANNI (Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) Online Visualization and Analysis Infrastructure), we retrieved daily and monthly Aqua and Terra MODIS products of aerosol optical depth (AOD), Angstrom exponent (AE), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and OMI aerosol index (AI) to examine the spatiotemporal variations by using statistical approaches. The results demonstrated that the decadal averages of aerosol properties showed values of AOD 0.35 (Aqua) and 0.34 (Terra) and AE 1.20 (Aqua) and 1.10 (Terra) with the highest levels during the post-monsoon. Notably, the mean interannual concentrations of AOD and NDVI consistently surpass 0.3, and AE and AI exceed 1 in most locations, underscoring the persistence of high aerosol loading. Also, the study revealed a negative decadal change in AOD of about -8.24 %, while AE, AI, and NDVI showed positive decadal changes of about 9.24 %, 15.09 %, and 12.67 %, respectively. In addition, aerosol optical properties and local meteorology strongly correlated (-0.8 to +0.8). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) identifies meteorological parameters as significant drivers, with the first three components explaining over 70 % of the variation in aerosol optical properties. The NOAA HYSPLIT trajectory model suggests that the long-distance dust transport from the Arabian Peninsula frequently penetrates Gujarat province and then to northwest India. The results contributed to air quality management strategies and provided valuable insights into regional climate and air quality with the influence of meteorology.

Trajectories of anxiety and depression among Chinese men who have sex with men on pre-exposure prophylaxis: a group-based trajectory model approach.

BACKGROUND: Anxiety and depression can influence adherence to Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP). However, there is limited research on the temporal dynamics of anxiety and depression among men who have sex with men (MSM) using PrEP. METHODS: From December 2018 to November 2020, we administered the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) to participants in the China Real-World Oral Intake of PrEP (CROPrEP) to measure their anxiety and depression levels. The group-based trajectory model (GBTM) depicted the dynamic changes of anxiety and depression scores over time. RESULTS: A total of 1023 MSM were included, with 4523 follow-up assessments. The GBTM categorized the trajectories into three distinct patterns: consistently low (54.8% for anxiety, 60.7% for depression), consistently moderate (39.3% for anxiety, 31.4% for depression), and high but bell-shaped (5.9% for anxiety, 7.9% for depression). Higher anxiety levels were associated with being aged 18-30 years old, earning less than US$619 per month, female-identifying, adopting the bottom sexual role with men, and having two or more anal sex partners in the past three months; similarly, higher depression levels correlated with a monthly income under US$619, female-identifying, sexual behavior as bottom and a positive syphilis at baseline. PrEP adherence was notably lower in the high but bell-shaped anxiety and depression group compared to the other groups, particularly at the 12th-month follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Close monitoring of anxiety and depression levels in MSM on PrEP is crucial. Provision of targeted mental health support is essential to enhance PrEP effectiveness.

Identifying and predicting physical limitation and cognitive decline trajectory group of older adults in China: A data-driven machine learning analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to utilize data-driven machine learning methods to identify and predict potential physical and cognitive function trajectory groups of older adults and determine their crucial factors for promoting active ageing in China. METHODS: Longitudinal data on 3026 older adults from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity and Happy Family Survey was used to identify potential physical and cognitive function trajectory groups using a group-based multi-trajectory model (GBMTM). Predictors were selected from sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, and physical and mental conditions. The trajectory groups were predicted using data-driven machine learning models and dynamic nomogram. Model performance was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC), area under the precision-recall curve (PRAUC), and confusion matrix. RESULTS: Two physical and cognitive function trajectory groups were determined, including a trajectory group with physical limitation and cognitive decline (14.18 %) and a normal trajectory group (85.82 %). Logistic regression performed well in predicting trajectory groups (AUROC = 0.881, PRAUC = 0.649). Older adults with lower baseline score of activities of daily living, older age, less frequent housework, and fewer actual teeth were more likely to experience physical limitation and cognitive decline trajectory group. LIMITATION: This study didn't carry out external validation. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that GBMTM and machine learning models effectively identify and predict physical limitation and cognitive decline trajectory group. The identified predictors might be essential for developing targeted interventions to promote healthy ageing.

Longitudinal patterns of patient-reported sleep disturbances after surgery for lung cancer.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to identify longitudinal heterogeneous trajectories of sleep status, adjusted for the effect of pain over time, among patients who had surgery for lung cancer and to quantify how disturbed sleep in the hospital affects functional recovery after discharge. METHODS: We included patients from a surgical cohort (CN-PRO-Lung 1). All patients reported symptoms using the MD Anderson Symptom Inventory-Lung Cancer (MDASI-LC) daily during postoperative hospitalization. Group-based dual trajectory modeling was used to investigate trajectories of disturbed sleep and pain during the first 7 days of postoperative hospitalization. Cox regression was used to compare the recovery of walking ability between the different sleep trajectories. RESULTS: Among 421 patients, disturbed sleep trajectories comprised low (31%), moderate (52%), and high (17%) groups. The surgical approach and number of chest tubes were associated with pain, and the number of chest tubes was also associated with sleep disturbances (OR = 1.99; 95% CI: 1.08-3.67). Recovery of walking ability after discharge was significantly slower in the high (median days = 16; 95% CI: 5-NA) and moderate disturbed sleep trajectory groups (median days = 5; 95%CI: 4-6) than in the low group (median days = 3; 95% CI: 3-4). CONCLUSION: Changes in disturbed sleep among patients with lung cancer followed three distinct trajectories over the first 7 days of hospitalization after surgery. Dual trajectory analyses highlighted the high concordance between specific trajectories of disturbed sleep and pain. Patients at high sleep disturbance and high levels of pain may benefit from appropriate interventions for both symptoms in combination with the patient's surgical approach and the number of chest tubes.

Frailty, cognitive impairment, and depressive symptoms in Chinese older adults: an eight-year multi-trajectory analysis.

BACKGROUND: Frailty, cognitive impairment, and depressive symptoms are closely interrelated conditions in the aging population. However, limited research has longitudinally analyzed the concurrent trajectories of these three prominent conditions in older adults in China. This study aimed to explore the eight-year trajectories of frailty, cognitive impairment, and depressive symptoms, and to identify individual-level and structural-level factors associated with the trajectories. METHODS: Four waves of data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011-2018) were used to identify 6,106 eligible older adults. The main measures included frailty by the frailty index constructed using 30 indicators, cognitive impairment by the summary score of immediate and delayed word recall, figure drawing, serial subtraction, and orientation, and depressive symptoms by the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Multi-trajectory models identified the trajectories of frailty, cognitive impairment, and depressive symptoms over time. Multinomial logistic regression was employed to estimate the associations between individual-level capital factors and one structural factor (hukou and geographic residency) with the identified trajectories, adjusting for demographic characteristics. RESULTS: Four trajectories emerged: (1) worsening frailty, worsening cognitive impairment, depression (14.0%); (2) declining pre-frailty, declining cognition, borderline depression (20.0%); (3) pre-frailty, worsening cognitive impairment, no depression (29.3%); and (4) physically robust, declining cognition, no depression (36.7%). Using the "physically robust, declining cognition, no depression" as the reference, not working, no social activity participant, worse childhood family financial situation, and poorer adult health were most strongly associated with the "worsening frailty, worsening cognitive impairment, depression" trajectory; worse health during childhood had the highest association with the "declining pre-frailty, declining cognition, borderline depression" trajectory; less education, lower household consumption, and rural hukou had the greatest association with the increased likelihood of the "pre-frailty, worsening cognitive impairment, no depression" trajectory. CONCLUSIONS: Findings could inform the understanding of the interrelationship of frailty, cognitive impairment, and depressive symptoms in older adults in China and may help practitioners detect adults at risk for adverse trajectories to implement strategies for proper care.

Frailty index trajectories in Chinese older adults with diverse levels of social participation: findings from a national population-based longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Aging and frailty pose significant challenges globally, placing a substantial burden on healthcare and social services due to their adverse consequences. AIM: The primary objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between social participation and development of frailty transition and trajectory. METHODS: This study utilized data from the CLHLS Cohort, a 10-year follow-up study involving 6713 participants, to investigate the association between social participation and development of frailty. Frailty reflects a comprehensive decline in various body functions. The study employed a group-based trajectory model to analyze the development trajectory of the frailty index and used logistic regression to assess the odds ratio (OR) of frailty risk. RESULTS: We identified two distinct groups of frailty progression trajectories: the "stable development group" and the "rapid growth group." Individuals who engaged in social activities at least once a month, but not daily, exhibited a significant association with an increased risk of transitioning into the "rapid growth group" (OR 1.305, 95% CI 1.032-1.649). Those with social participation less than once a month had an even greater risk (OR 1.872, 95% CI 1.423-2.463). Moreover, low social participation frequency (occasionally/never) has a more pronounced impact on frailty progression in males. CONCLUSION: A higher frequency of social participation is associated with a lower risk of being classified into the "rapid growth group" and a slower rate of frailty index progression. Preventing the progression of frailty can contribute to enhanced support for healthy aging among older adults.

Trajectories of otitis media and association with health determinants among Indigenous children in Australia: the Longitudinal Study of Indigenous Children.

OBJECTIVES: Indigenous children in Australia experience high burden of persistent otitis media (OM) from very early age. The aim was to identify distinct trajectories of OM in children up to age 10-12 years and examine the association with socio-economic determinants. STUDY DESIGN: A multistage clustered national panel survey. METHODS: The study analysed the birth cohort of the Longitudinal Study of Indigenous Children from 2008 to 2018, comprising 11 study waves. Group-based trajectory modelling was used to identify different trajectories of OM outcome. Multinomial logistic regression was applied to examine the relationship between trajectories and individual, household and community-level socio-economic determinants. RESULTS: This analysis included 894 children with at least three responses on OM over the 11 waves, and the baseline mean age was 15.8 months. Three different trajectories of OM were identified: non-severe OM prone, early/persistent severe OM and late-onset severe OM. Overall, 11.4% of the children had early/persistent severe OM from birth to 7.5 to nine years, while late-onset severe OM consisted of 9.8% of the children who had first OM from age 3.5 to five years. Children in communities with middle and the highest socio-economic outcomes have lower relative risk of early/persistent severe OM (adjusted relative risk ratio = 0.39, 95% confidence interval = 0.22-0.70 and adjusted relative risk ratio = 0.22, 95% confidence interval = 0.09-0.52, respectively) compared to children in communities with lowest socio-economic outcomes. CONCLUSION: Efforts to close the gap in the quality of life of Indigenous children must prioritise strategies that prevent severe ear disease (runny ears and perforation), including improved healthcare access, reduced household crowding, and better education, and more employment opportunities.

Pubertal progression in relation to peripubertal exposure to organochlorine chemicals in a cohort of Russian boys.

Background: Peripubertal concentrations of serum dioxins and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have demonstrated associations with altered age of pubertal onset and sexual maturity in boys, but associations with pubertal progression have received less attention. Methods: The Russian Children's Study is a prospective cohort of 516 boys enrolled in 2003-2005 at age 8 or 9 and followed annually up to 19 years of age. Serum concentrations of dioxin-like toxic equivalents (TEQs), polychlorinated dibenzodioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), and non-dioxin-like PCBs (NDL-PCBs) and whole blood lead levels (BLLs) were quantified from blood samples collected at study entry (age 8-9). Testicular volume (TV) was assessed annually using a Prader orchidometer. Pubertal trajectories were identified by applying Group-Based Trajectory Models (GBTMs) to TV measured from ages 8-19. Associations of peripubertal serum TEQs, PCDDs, PCDFs, and NDL-PCBs with specific progression trajectories were modeled using multinomial logistic regression, adjusting for each boy's birthweight, and for BLL, body mass index and nutritional factors at study entry. Results: Among 489 eligible boys with available exposure measures, we identified three pubertal trajectories using GBTMs: slower (34% of boys), moderate (48%) and faster (18%). Boys with higher peripubertal serum TEQs had higher adjusted odds of being in the moderate versus faster trajectory (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.79, 95% CI 1.01, 3.13) and the slower versus faster trajectory (aOR 1.52, 95% CI 0.82, 2.78) per 1 log unit increase in serum TEQs. Boys with higher peripubertal serum PCDFs had higher adjusted odds of being in the moderate compared to the faster trajectory (aOR 1.92, 95% CI 1.20, 3.03) and of being in the slower versus the faster trajectory (aOR 1.42, 95% CI 0.91, 2.33) per 1 log unit increase. Boys with higher NDL-PCBs had higher adjusted odds of being in the faster trajectory versus the moderate (aOR 2.56, 95% CI 0.91-7.20) or slower (aOR 3.31, 95% CI 1.07, 10.25) trajectory. Boys with higher blood lead levels also had higher adjusted odds of being in the slower trajectory of pubertal progression, compared to either the faster (aOR 1.47, 95% CI 0.89, 2.44) or moderate (aOR 1.20, 95% CI 0.83, 1.75) trajectories, per 1 log unit increase in BLL, although these associations did not attain statistical significance. Conclusion: Boys' peripubertal exposure to dioxins and certain PCBs may alter pubertal progression.