Sex and population differences in the cardiometabolic continuum: a machine learning study using the UK Biobank and ELSA-Brasil cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The temporal relationships across cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs) were recently conceptualized as the cardiometabolic continuum (CMC), sequence of cardiovascular events that stem from gene-environmental interactions, unhealthy lifestyle influences, and metabolic diseases such as diabetes, and hypertension. While the physiological pathways linking metabolic and cardiovascular diseases have been investigated, the study of the sex and population differences in the CMC have still not been described. METHODS: We present a machine learning approach to model the CMC and investigate sex and population differences in two distinct cohorts: the UK Biobank (17,700 participants) and the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) (7162 participants). We consider the following CMDs: hypertension (Hyp), diabetes (DM), heart diseases (HD: angina, myocardial infarction, or heart failure), and stroke (STK). For the identification of the CMC patterns, individual trajectories with the time of disease occurrence were clustered using k-means. Based on clinical, sociodemographic, and lifestyle characteristics, we built multiclass random forest classifiers and used the SHAP methodology to evaluate feature importance. RESULTS: Five CMC patterns were identified across both sexes and cohorts: EarlyHyp, FirstDM, FirstHD, Healthy, and LateHyp, named according to prevalence and disease occurrence time that depicted around 95%, 78%, 75%, 88% and 99% of individuals, respectively. Within the UK Biobank, more women were classified in the Healthy cluster and more men in all others. In the EarlyHyp and LateHyp clusters, isolated hypertension occurred earlier among women. Smoking habits and education had high importance and clear directionality for both sexes. For ELSA-Brasil, more men were classified in the Healthy cluster and more women in the FirstDM. The diabetes occurrence time when followed by hypertension was lower among women. Education and ethnicity had high importance and clear directionality for women, while for men these features were smoking, alcohol, and coffee consumption. CONCLUSIONS: There are clear sex differences in the CMC that varied across the UK and Brazilian cohorts. In particular, disadvantages regarding incidence and the time to onset of diseases were more pronounced in Brazil, against woman. The results show the need to strengthen public health policies to prevent and control the time course of CMD, with an emphasis on women.

Maternal smoking during pregnancy is risk factor for gallbladder disease in offspring during adulthood: a prospective study from UK Biobank.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Gallbladder disease is a common disease with high prevalence. Majority of gallbladder disease is due to gallstone. Though genetics are believed to play a role in its pathogenesis, the contribution of environmental pressures in early life to the development of this disease in adulthood has not been ever investigated. This study aimed to clarify the risk of maternal smoking exposure in association with gallbladder disease in adulthood. The interaction of maternal smoking and own smoking during adulthood on this association was studied as well. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 286,731 eligible participants from the UK Biobank population-based cohort were included. Multivariable Cox regression analysis were used to examine the HR and 95% CI with adjustment for covariates. RESULT: During a median of 8.8 years follow-up, 7110 incident cases of gallbladder disease including 6800 (95.6%) gallstone were identified. Maternal smoking was associated with increased risk of incident total gallbladder disease (HR = 1.13; 95%CI: 1.06 - 1.21; P = 0.0002) as well as gallstones (HR = 1.13; 95%CI: 1.06 -1.21; P = 0.0003) in adulthood. Compared with those who were neither exposed to maternal smoking nor own smoking, subjects adherence to no smoking during adulthood but having maternal smoking exposure still had increased risk of total gallbladder disease (HR = 1.21; 95%CI: 1.1-1.34, P=0.0001) and gallstones (HR = 1.21; 95%CI: 1.1-1.35, P=0.0001). CONCLUSION: The present study using large prospective cohort data from UK Biobank, for the first time, demonstrated maternal smoking exposure bringing elevated risk of incident total gallbladder disease/gallstone in adulthood.

Dementia is an age-independent risk factor for severity and death in COVID-19 inpatients.

INTRODUCTION: Dementia has been associated with COVID-19 prevalence, but whether this reflects higher infection, older age of patients, or disease severity remains unclear. METHODS: We investigated a cohort of 12,863 UK Biobank community-dwelling individuals > 65 years old (1814 individuals ≥ 80 years old) tested for COVID-19. Individuals were stratified by age to account for age as a confounder. Risk factors were analyzed for COVID-19-positive diagnosis, hospitalization, and death. RESULTS: All-cause dementia, Alzheimer's disease (AD), and Parkinson's disease (PD) were associated with COVID-19-positive diagnosis, and all-cause dementia and AD remained associated in individuals ≥ 80 years old. All-cause dementia, AD, or PD were not risk factors for overall hospitalization, but increased the risk of hospitalization of COVID-19 patients. All-cause dementia and AD increased the risk of COVID-19-related death, and all-cause dementia was uniquely associated with increased death in ≥ 80-year-old patients. DISCUSSION: All-cause dementia and AD are age-independent risk factors for disease severity and death in COVID-19.

Dementia is an age‐independent risk factor for severity and death in COVID‐19 inpatients

Introduction: Dementia has been associated with COVID‐19 prevalence, but whether this reflects higher infection, older age of patients, or disease severity remains unclear. Methods: We investigated a cohort of 12,863 UK Biobank community‐dwelling individuals > 65 years old (1814 individuals ≥ 80 years old) tested for COVID‐19. Individuals were stratified by age to account for age as a confounder. Risk factors were analyzed for COVID‐19–positive diagnosis, hospitalization, and death. Results: All‐cause dementia, Alzheimer's disease (AD), and Parkinson's disease (PD) were associated with COVID‐19‐positive diagnosis, and all‐cause dementia and AD remained associated in individuals ≥ 80 years old. All‐cause dementia, AD, or PD were not risk factors for overall hospitalization, but increased the risk of hospitalization of COVID‐19 patients. All‐cause dementia and AD increased the risk of COVID‐19–related death, and all‐cause dementia was uniquely associated with increased death in ≥ 80‐year‐old patients. Discussion: All‐cause dementia and AD are age‐independent risk factors for disease severity and death in COVID‐19.