Adaptive Gaussian Markov random fields for child mortality estimation.

The under-5 mortality rate (U5MR), a critical health indicator, is typically estimated from household surveys in lower and middle income countries. Spatio-temporal disaggregation of household survey data can lead to highly variable estimates of U5MR, necessitating the usage of smoothing models which borrow information across space and time. The assumptions of common smoothing models may be unrealistic when certain time periods or regions are expected to have shocks in mortality relative to their neighbors, which can lead to oversmoothing of U5MR estimates. In this paper, we develop a spatial and temporal smoothing approach based on Gaussian Markov random field models which incorporate knowledge of these expected shocks in mortality. We demonstrate the potential for these models to improve upon alternatives not incorporating knowledge of expected shocks in a simulation study. We apply these models to estimate U5MR in Rwanda at the national level from 1985 to 2019, a time period which includes the Rwandan civil war and genocide.

Analysis on Children's Health Equity in Countries along the"Belt and Road"Based on Concentration Index and Thiel Index / 中国卫生经济

Objective:To analyze and evaluate the equity of children's health in countries along the"the Belt and Road",promote further attention to children's health in countries along the route,and promote cooperation and exchanges on children's health between China and countries along the"the Belt and Road".Methods:Using concentration index and concentration curve to measure overall equity,and using the Thiel index for intraregional and interregional euqity measurement.Results:The under-five mortality concentration index is 0.349 7,the concentration curve is below the absolute fair line.The Thiel index shows that inequality in low-income countries,lower-middle-income countries,upper-middle-income countries and high-income countries is the leading cause of child health inequities in the"the Belt and Road"countries.Conclusion:There is inequity in the health of children in countries along"the Belt and Road Initiative",countries along the"the Belt and Road"should take comprehensive measures to reduce the under-five mortality rate,at the same time strengthen international cooperation to further promote equity in children's health in"Belt and Road"countries.

A cross-sectional study quantifies the independent contribution of nurses and midwives in child health outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: As the largest profession within the healthcare industry, nursing and midwifery workforce (NMW) provides comprehensive healthcare to children and their families. This study quantified the independent role of NMW in reducing under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) worldwide. DESIGN: A retrospective, observational and correlational study to examine the independent role of NMW in protecting against U5MR. METHODS: Within 266 "countries", the cross-sectional correlations between NMW and U5MR were examined with scatter plots, Pearson's r, nonparametric, partial correlation and multiple regression. The affluence, education and urban advantages were considered as the potential competing factors for the NMW-U5MR relationship. The NMW-U5MR correlations in both developing and developed countries were explored and compared. RESULTS: Bivariate correlations revealed that NMW negatively and significantly correlated to U5MR worldwide. When the contributing effects of economic affluence, urbanization and education were removed, the independent NMW role in reducing U5MR remained significant. NMW independently explained 9.36% U5MR variance. Multilinear regression selected NMW as a significant factor contributing an extra 3% of explanation to U5MR variance when NMW, affluence, education and urban advantage were incorporated as the predicting variables. NMW correlated with U5MR significantly more strongly in developing countries than in developed countries. CONCLUSION: NMW, indexing nursing and midwifery service, was a significant factor for reducing U5MR worldwide. This beneficial effect explained 9.36% of U5MR variance which was independent of economic affluence, urbanization and education. The NMW may be a more significant risk factor for protecting children from dying under 5 years old in developing countries. As a strategic response to the advocacy of the United Nations to reduce child mortality, it is worthy for health authorities to consider a further extension of nurses and midwives' practice scope to enable communities to have more access to NMW healthcare services.

Space-time modeling of child mortality at the Admin-2 level in a low and middle income countries context.

The Sustainable Development Goals call for a total reduction of preventable child mortality before 2030. Further, the goals state the desirability to have subnational mortality estimates. Estimates at this level are required for health interventions at the subnational level. In a low and middle income countries context, the data on mortality typically consist of household surveys, which are carried out with a stratified, cluster design, and census microsamples. Most household surveys collect full birth history (FBH) data on birth and death dates of a mother's children, but censuses collect summary birth history (SBH) data which consist only of the number of children born and the number that died. In previous work, direct (survey-weighted) estimates with associated variances were derived from FBH data and smoothed in space and time. Unfortunately, the FBH data from household surveys are usually not sufficiently abundant to obtain yearly estimates at the Admin-2 level (at which interventions are often made). In this paper we describe four extensions to previous work: (i) combining SBH data with FBH data, (ii) modeling on a yearly scale, to combine data on a yearly scale with data at coarser time scales, (iii) adjusting direct estimates in Admin-2 areas where we do not observe any deaths due to small sample sizes, (iv) acknowledge differences in data sources by modeling potential bias arising from the various data sources. The methods are illustrated using household survey and census data from Kenya and Malawi, to produce mortality estimates from 1980 to the time of the most recent survey, and predictions to 2020.

Association of Schistosoma haematobium infection morbidity and severity on co-infections in pre-school age children living in a rural endemic area in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Individuals living in Schistosoma haematobium endemic areas are often at risk of having other communicable diseases simultaneously. This usually creates diagnostic difficulties leading to misdiagnosis and overlooking of schistosomiasis infection. In this study we investigated the prevalence and severity of coinfections in pre-school age children and further investigated associations between S. haematobium prevalence and under 5 mortality. METHODS: A community based cross-sectional survey was conducted in Shamva District, Zimbabwe. Using random selection, 465 preschool age children (1-5 years of age) were enrolled through clinical examination by two independent clinicians for the following top morbidity causing conditions: respiratory tract infections, dermatophytosis, malaria and fever of unknown origin. The conditions and their severe sequels were diagnosed as per approved WHO standards. S. haematobium infection was diagnosed by urine filtration and the children were screened for conditions common in the study area which included HIV, tuberculosis, malnutrition and typhoid. Data was analysed using univariate and multinomial regression analysis and relative risk (RR) calculated. RESULTS: Prevalence of S. haematobium was 35% (145). The clinical conditions assessed had the following prevalence in the study population: upper respiratory tract infection 40% (229), fever of unknown origin 45% (189), dermatophytosis 18% and malaria 18% (75). The odds of co-infections observed with S. haematobium infection were: upper respiratory tract infection aOR = 1.22 (95% CI 0.80 to 1.87), dermatophytosis aOR = 4.79 (95% CI 2.78 to 8.25), fever of unknown origin aOR = 10.63 (95% CI 6.48-17.45) and malaria aOR = 0.91 (95% CI 0.51 to1.58). Effect of schistosomiasis coinfection on disease progression based on the odds of the diseases progressing to severe sequalae were: Severe pneumonia aOR = 8.41 (95% CI 3.09-22.93), p < 0.0001, complicated malaria aOR = 7.09 (95% CI 1.51-33.39), p = 0.02, severe dermatophytosis aOR = 20.3 (95% CI 4.78-83.20):p = 0.03, and fever of unknown origin aOR = 1.62 (95%CI 1.56-4.73), p = 0.02. CONCLUSION: This study revealed an association between schistosomiasis and the comorbidity conditions of URTI, dermatophytosis, malaria and FUO in PSAC living in a schistosomiasis endemic area. A possible detrimental effect where coinfection led to severe sequels of the comorbidity conditions was demonstrated. Appropriate clinical diagnostic methods are required to identify associated infectious diseases and initiate early treatment of schistosomiasis and co-infections in PSAC.

The new WHO decision-making framework on vaccine use in acute humanitarian emergencies: MSF experience in Minkaman, South Sudan.

INTRODUCTION: The main causes of death during population movements can be prevented by addressing the population's basic needs. In 2013, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a framework for decision making to help prioritize vaccinations in acute humanitarian emergencies. This article describes MSF's experience of applying this framework in addition to addressing key population needs in a displacement setting in Minkaman, South Sudan. CASE DESCRIPTION: Military clashes broke out in South Sudan in December 2013. By May 2014, Minkaman, a village in the Lakes State, hosted some 85,000 displaced people. MSF arrived in Minkaman on 28 December 2013 and immediately provided interventions to address the key humanitarian needs (health care, access to drinking water, measles vaccination). The WHO framework was used to identify priority vaccines: those preventing outbreaks (measles, polio, oral cholera vaccine, and vaccine against meningococcal meningitis A (MenAfrivac®)) and those reducing childhood morbidity and mortality (pentavalent vaccine that combines diphtheria, tetanus, whooping cough, hepatitis B, and Haemophilus influenzae type B; pneumococcal vaccine; and rotavirus vaccine). By mid-March, access to primary and secondary health care was ensured, including community health activities and the provision of safe water. Mass vaccination campaigns against measles, polio, cholera, and meningitis had been organized. Vaccination campaigns against the main deadly childhood diseases, however, were not in place owing to lack of authorization by the Ministry of Health (MoH). CONCLUSIONS: The first field use of the new WHO framework for prioritizing vaccines in acute emergencies is described. Although MSF was unable to implement the full package of priority vaccines because authorization could not be obtained from the MoH, a series of mass vaccination campaigns against key epidemic-prone diseases was successfully implemented within a complex emergency context. Together with covering the population's basic needs, this might have contributed to reducing mortality levels below the emergency threshold and to the absence of epidemics. For the WHO framework to be used to its full potential it must not only be adapted for field use but, most importantly, national decision makers should be briefed on the framework and its practical implementation.

Trend analysis of mortality rates and causes of death in children under 5 years old in Beijing, China from 1992 to 2015 and forecast of mortality into the future: an entire population-based epidemiological study.

OBJECTIVES: To analyse trends in mortality and causes of death among children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China between 1992 and 2015 and to forecast under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) for the period 2016-2020. METHODS: An entire population-based epidemiological study was conducted. Data collection was based on the Child Death Reporting Card of the Beijing Under-5 Mortality Rate Surveillance Network. Trends in mortality and leading causes of death were analysed using the χ2 test and SPSS 19.0 software. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was fitted to forecast U5MRs between 2016 and 2020 using the EViews 8.0 software. RESULTS: Mortality in neonates, infants and children aged under 5 years decreased by 84.06%, 80.04% and 80.17% from 1992 to 2015, respectively. However, the U5MR increased by 7.20% from 2013 to 2015. Birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities comprised the top five causes of death. The greatest, most rapid reduction was that of pneumonia by 92.26%, with an annual average rate of reduction of 10.53%. The distribution of causes of death differed among children of different ages. Accidental asphyxia and sepsis were among the top five causes of death in children aged 28 days to 1 year and accident was among the top five causes in children aged 1-4 years. The U5MRs in Beijing are projected to be 2.88‰, 2.87‰, 2.90‰, 2.97‰ and 3.09‰ for the period 2016-2020, based on the predictive model. CONCLUSION: Beijing has made considerable progress in reducing U5MRs from 1992 to 2015. However, U5MRs could show a slight upward trend from 2016 to 2020. Future considerations for child healthcare include the management of birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities. Specific preventative measures should be implemented for children of various age groups.

Trends in Between-Country Health Equity in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1990 to 2011: Improvement, Convergence and Reversal.

It is not clear whether between-country health inequity in Sub-Saharan Africa has been reduced over time due to economic development and increased foreign investments. We used the World Health Organization's data about 46 nations in Sub-Saharan Africa to test if under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) and life expectancy (LE) converged or diverged from 1990 to 2011. We explored whether the standard deviation of selected health indicators decreased over time (i.e., sigma convergence), and whether the less developed countries moved toward the average level in the group (i.e., beta convergence). The variation of U5MR between countries became smaller from 1990 to 2001. Yet this sigma convergence trend did not continue after 2002. Life expectancy in Africa from 1990-2011 demonstrated a consistent convergence trend, even after controlling for initial differences of country-level factors. The lack of consistent convergence in U5MR partially resulted from the fact that countries with higher U5MR in 1990 eventually performed better than those countries with lower U5MRs in 1990, constituting a reversal in between-country health inequity. Thus, international aid agencies might consider to reassess the funding priority about which countries to invest in, especially in the field of early childhood health.

A time series analysis on under 5 mortality rate in Zhejiang Province / 预防医学

Objective To study the temporal distribution regular pattern of under 5 mortality rate(U5MR)from 1 998 to 201 4 in Zhejiang Province,and to predict the under 5 mortality rate in 201 5.Methods A time series ARIMA (p,d,q) forecasting model for U5MR was conducted using IBM SPSS Statistics 20.0 statistical analysis software.Results The UMAR showed downward trend.The ARIMA(2,1 ,2)model of U5MR from 1 998 to 201 4 in Zhejiang Province is yt =-0.696 +0.636yt -1 +0.024yt -2 +0.340yt -3 +αt -0.003αt -1 +0.997αt -2 ,and the model fitting was good.Each of the actual mortality was consistent with the trend of model prediction,and was within the 95% confidence interval.The predicted value of U5MR was 4.08‰ (95% CI:1 .52‰ -6.64‰)in 201 5.Conclusion Time series analysis is an effective way to analyze the temporal distribution regular pattern of U5MR,which could be used for short -term prediction.

Saneamiento y relación con la salud de la niñez en el contexto mundial 2004 / Sanitation as related to children`s health in the world context 2004

Se determina el efecto mundial de los diferentes tipos de cobertura de disposición de excretas, DE, definidas en el marco del concepto "Instalaciones de Saneamiento Mejoradas", ISM, de OMS y UNICEF, sobre las tasas de mortalidad en niños menores de 5 años, TM menor 5 años. Para lograrlo se recolectaron datos de cobertura de DE en 161 países del "Programa Conjunto de Monitoreo" del 2004. Las TM menor 5 años se obtuvieron del informe "Progreso para la Infancia: un balance sobre agua y saneamiento". Los datos de ISM se clasificaron en totales, ISM-total, alcantarillado, DEA, tanques sépticos y letrinas, DET y L, y sin servicio, DESS. Se aplicaron 3 métodos estadísticos: distribución de frecuencias entre los intervalos de ambas variables, la correlación simple de Pearson entre los tipos de evacuación de excretas y las TM menor 5 años y la correlación Parcial al 95 por ciento de confianza pero controlando variables. Los resultados indican que a mayor cobertura mediante ISM-total menor es la TM menor 5 años, con una correlación de menos 0.782, mientras que las coberturas con DEA tienen mayor impacto sobre la disminución de la mortalidad que cuando se realiza por DET y L. Estos resultados se ratifican con las otras pruebas estadísticas y comprueban la hipótesis.

The worldwide effect on mortality in children under five years of age (MR < 5 years ) is determined for the different types of excreta disposal (ED) coverage, as defined in the framework of "Improved Sanitation Facilities (ISF)", established by the WHO and UNICEF. To accomplish this, ED coverage data was collected from 161 countries participating in the "Joint Monitoring Programme" in 2004. The mortality rates were obtained from "Progress for Children: A Balance on Water and Sanitation". ISF data were classified as: total (total-ISF), sewage (DEA), septic tanks and latrines (DET and L), and without services (DESS). Three statistical methods were applied: frequency distribution between the intervals of both variables, Pearson´s simple correlation between the types of excreta evacuation and the MR<5 years, and partial correlation at 95% confidence but controlling the variables. Results indicate that as total coverage (total-ISF) increases, there is a lower incidence of mortality (MR < 5 years), with a correlation of –0,782; while DEA coverage has a greater impact over mortality decrease as compared to DET and L. The results are ratified with the other statistical tests and prove the hypothesis.