Differential urban growth as a process of redistribution of population: a case study of Sao Paulo state, Brazil.

"This paper identifies the process of the differential concentration of population in urban areas....[Data for the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, have] been subjected to an ambiguous model of development. This model is reflected in the pattern of population distribution."

[Changes of trends of internal migration, urbanization and village settlement in Cuba]. / Zmeny v trendech vnitrni migrace, urbanizace a ve vesnickem osidleni na kube.

PIP: Changes of space settlement and location of population are a consequence of the complex social conditions and are therefore strongly influenced by social and economic formation. Under capitalism, there existed in Cuba a considerable difference of living conditions between Havana and other towns, as well as in the country-side. In 1953, already 35% of the urban population lived in Havana; almost the whole industrial and trade activity was concentrated in Havana and in several other towns. A large dispersion was especially characteristic for the rural settlement. Immigration to Havana and to several further towns was traditionally very intensive. However, new economic policy after the revolution has limited this immigration by the development of medium-size towns and by developing large-scale agricultural production - a unique case in Latin America. Urban population reached 68.2% in 1981, while the share of population living in the capital declined from 20.8% in 1953 to 19.8% in 1981. During the session of the National Assembly of People's Power in December 1983, Castro proclaimed that Cuba was probably the only country of Latin America not having any problem with the growth of the capital. The author includes tables comparing living standard development in the provinces of maximum and minimum population dispersion. The changes undergone in the field of internal migration, urbanization, and characteristics of rural settlement in Cuba relate to given development strategy and they are a logical consequence of profound social changes of the society. However, there exist some handicaps preventing an efficient development; for instance, the problem of directing migration to the regions, where the manpower is required. More necessary is the stabilization of urban settlement and, at the same time, a definitive elimination of territorial differences of the living standard. This is not an easily realizable process due to the need of considerable investments not confined to the sphere of material production.^ieng

[The metropolitan regions: the estimated population for 1985 and 1990]. / As regioes metropolitanas: a populacao estimada para 1985 e 1990.

PIP: Current trends in urban population size and growth in Brazil are described. It is noted that the population of nine major urban areas has grown from 24.1 million in 1970 to 35.1 million in 1980 and will likely reach 47.8 million by 1990, with Sao Paulo the fastest-growing urban area. Data are from official sources.^ieng

[The cities of Brazil in the future]. / As cidades no Brasil do futuro.

PIP: Projected future trends in urbanization in Brazil are reviewed. The author notes that by the year 2000, Brazil will have a total population of 180 million, of whom 75 percent will live in urban areas. The relative percentage of the urban population who will live in the two major metropolitan areas is also outlined.^ieng

[Urbanization in Latin America: the process of the development of peripheries to metropolitan areas]. / La urbanizacion en America Latina: el proceso de constitucion de periferias en las areas metropolitanas.

PIP: Trends in urbanization in Latin America are reviewed. The focus is on the development of peripheral, low-income urban areas adjoining major urban centers during the period since the 1970s.^ieng

[Trends and characteristics of urbanization in the Third World, the day before yesterday to the day after tomorrow (1900-2025)]. / Tendances et caracteristiques de l'urbanisation du Tiers Monde d'avant-hier a apres-demain (1900-2025).

PIP: This article reviews the history of Third World urbanization, examines the evolution of the urban population from 1970-80 based on the 1st results of the 1980 round of censuses, and examines the prospects for urbanization through the end of the century and the year 2025. From 1910 to World War II the urban population in all Third World countries grew more rapidly than the total population. Both rates of growth were moderate compared to subsequent rates. Total Third World population grew by about .9%/year while the urban population grew at 2.2%/year. From 1950-80 total population grew at 2.2% and the urban population by 4.6%. The urban growth took place in the absence of economic developments capable of explaining or justifying it. Urban growth accounted in large part for the extraordinary increase in cereal importation to the Third World. In 1980 it was estimated that 26.5% of the population if Africa, 63.1% in Latin America, and 25.4% in Asian countries excluding China were urban. A characteristic of third World urbanization is the strong concentration of population in large cities; 43% of the urban population currently lives in cities with population of over 500,000. In Third World market countries, total population growth from 1970-80 is provisionally estimated at 2.5-2.6%/year, while according to UN estimates urban population growth amounted to 4.2%/year and other estimates place population growth amounted to 4.2%/year and other estimates place it at 4.4%/year. The growth of the urban population in China from 1970-80 was estimated at 3.3%/year by the UN. During the 75 years from 1950-2025, the Third World urban population is expected to multiply by a factor of 16, from less than 200 million to over 3 billion. The urban population in 2025 projected by the UN amounts to 837 million in Africa, 724 million in Latin America, and 1.6 billion in Asian market countries, but there is some suggestion that the projection errs on the low side. Increases in food production on the order of 1.9%/year will be required through 2025 to feed the new urban population at the current level. Around the year 2000, cities of 1 million or more will contain about 46% of the urban population and 21% of the total population. The largest Third World cities will continue to grow despite their poor living conditions and lack of economic justification, and the low incomes of the inhabitants will increase the difficulty of improving living standards. Predictions as far ahead as 2025 are hazardous, but it is likely that the rate of growth of the largest cities will have abated somewhat.^ieng

Primary health care in the context of rapid urbanization.

PIP: A review of demographic trends and health and social problems in the fast growing urban areas of the world indicates that, in the future, increasing numbers of people will be living in precarious socioeconomic conditions which impede the achievement of health. It is estimated that from 4.4 billion in 1980 the world's population will increase to 6.2 billion by the year 2000. The urban population will increase from 1.8 to 3.2 billion during the same period, over 2 billion of which will be in developing countries. The rapid and often uncontrollable demographic growth of cities, especially in the developing world, stimulates the demand for resources, intensifies their utilization and creates an intolerable pressure on the urban infrastructure and physical environment. A number of action oriented projects to combat disease and contamination have been successful. Projects in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Colombo, Sri Lanka, Hyderabad, India, Guayaquil, Ecuador, Lima, Peru, and Rio de Janeiro have been implemented under a partnership among WHO, UNICEF, the Netherlands Aid Agency, the World Bank, and other international organizationals and governments. These projects all emphasize the fundamental role of community organizations, especially that of women; low-cost technology and the need to mobilize and efficiently use locally available resources; an ecological multisectoral concept of health whereby action concerning the environment, education, income generation and the availability of food, all with a powerful disease preventive potential, carry equal if not greater weight than the efforts to provide the population with health centers or implement curative practices. All these projects are focused on marginal groups; many were initiated by imaginative individuals or groups with a considerable amount of social orientation and motivation, and often, at least in the beginning, without the support of governments, nongovernmental or international organizations. It is important to study these projects in their accomplishments and failures; to help describe them and disseminate related information when appropriate; and to promote political and technical support for those which are successful so that they can rapidly come out of the experimental/demonstration phase and be expanded to become part of routine programs.^ieng

Metropolitan migration and population growth in selected developing countries.

PIP: The purpose of this article is to estimate the components of metropolitan population growth in selected developing countries during 1960-1970 period. The study examines population growth in 26 cities: 5 are in Africa, 8 in Asia, and 13 in Latin America, using data from national census publications. These cities in general are the political capitals of their countries, but some additional large cities were selected in Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa. All cities, at the beginning of the 1960-1970 decade had over 500,000 population; Accra, the only exception, reached this population level during the 1960s. Some cities had over 4 million residents in 1970. Net migration contributed about 37% to total metropolitan population growth; the remainder of the growth is attributable to natural increase. Migration has a much stronger impact on metropolitan growth than suggested by the above figure: 1) Several metropolitan areas, for various reasons, are unlikely to receive many migrants; without those cities, the share of metropolitan growth from net migration is 44%. 2) Estimates of the natural increase of migrants after their arrival in the metropolitan areas, when added to migration itself, changes the total contribution of migration to 49% in some metropolitan areas. 3) Even where net migration contributes a smaller proportion to metropolitan growth than natural increase, the rates of net migration are generally high and should be viewed in the context of rapid metropolitan population growth from natural increase alone. Finally, the paper also compares the components of metropolitan growth with the components of growth in the remaining urban areas. The results show that the metropolitan areas, in general, grow faster than the remaining urban areas, and that this more rapid growth is mostly due to a higher rate of net migration. Given the significance of migration for metropolitan growth, further investigations of the effects of these migration streams, particularly with respect to in-migration and out-migration, would greatly benefit understanding of the detailed and interconnected process of population growth, migration, employment and social welfare of city residents.^ieng

[Rural-urban population redistribution between 1970 and 1980 (a micro-regional analysis)]. / Redistribuicao rural-urbana da populacao entre 1970-1980 (analise segundo as microrregioes)

PIP: Changes in rural-urban population distribution in Brazil from 1970 to 1980 are analyzed using census data. Trends examined include spatial redistribution throughout the country, rapid urbanization, the decline in the size of the rural population in the state of Parana, agricultural expansion in the northern and central-western regions, and the increase of the rural population within metropolitan areas. (summary in ENG)^ieng

[Observations on rural and urban population changes in Brazil from 1940 to 1980]. / Observacoes sobre a evolucao da populacao rural e urbana do Brasil no periodo 1940 a 1980.

PIP: Preliminary data from the 1980 census are used to analyze changes in rural-urban population patterns in Brazil between 1940 and 1980. The data are presented in four tables and three maps that show changes by region and federal unit.^ieng

[Evolution of the urban and rural population in the 11 administrative regions of the state of Sao Paulo]. / Evolucao da populacao urbana e rural nas 11 regioes administrativas do estado de Sao Paulo, 1940-1970.

PIP: This paper describes the evolution of the urban and rural population in the 11 administrative regions of the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and to establish the role of the new municipalities. The number of municipalities grew from 270 during 1940-50 to 505 during 1960-70; in the same period the annual population growth in urban areas increased from 3.72% to 5.56%. The great urbanization process in Sao Paulo began after 1940; before the date 56% of the population lived in rural areas. The growth of urbanization during the period 1940-70 was prompted mainly by the decline in the production of coffee together with a great expansion of industry, leading to a massive movement of workers from the coffee fields to the newly industrialized areas. Improvements in the road and railway system greatly contributed to these changes. This situation has brought under attack, on the part of legislators, the old criteria used to define urban and rural population in Brazil, criteria still based on an ancient law which does not take into consideration the activities carried out by the population in a specific area.^ieng