Upgrading Passenger Vehicle Emission Standard Helps to Reduce China's Air Pollution Risk from Uncertainty in Electrification.

Upgrading to the CHINA 7 standard is crucial for managing air pollution from passenger vehicles in China. Meanwhile, China aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, which necessitates large-scale replacement of gasoline vehicles with electric vehicles in the future. Consequently, the public might view upgrading gasoline vehicles to the CHINA 7 standard as redundant. However, the emission reduction benefits of upgrading standards in the context of uncertain electrification ambitions have not received adequate attention. Here, we show that upgrading standards will compensate for the absence of emissions reductions due to hindered electrification efforts. In the best scenario, China's CO2 emissions can be reduced to 0.047 Gt and NOx to 8.2 × 103 t in 2050. In nonextreme electrification scenarios with CHINA 7 standard, the emission intensity reduction will remain the main driver for emission reductions, outweighing the electrification contribution. In extreme electrification scenarios, upgrading standards will tackle the increased emissions from plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Our fleet-level results advocate for early standards upgrades to enhance resilience against air pollution risks arising from uncertainties in electrification. Our evidence from China, with one of the most stringent emission standards, can provide a reference point for the world on the upgrading passenger vehicle emission standard issue.

High Particle Number Emissions Determined with Robust Regression Plume Analysis (RRPA) from Hundreds of Vehicle Chases.

Particle number emission factors were determined for hundreds of individual diesel and gasoline vehicles in their real operation on Finnish highways and regional roads in 2020 with one-by-one chase measurements and Robust Regression Plume Analysis (RRPA). RRPA is a rapid way to analyze data from a large number of vehicle chases automatically. The particle number emission factors were determined for four ranges of particle diameters (>1.3, > 2.5, > 10, and >23 nm). The emission factors for most of the measured vehicles were observed to significantly exceed the non-volatile particle number limits used in the most recent European emission regulation levels, for both light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles. Additionally, most of the newest vehicles (covering regulation levels up to Euro 6), for which the particle number emission regulations (non-volatile >23 nm particles) apply, showed emission factors of the >23 nm particles clearly above the regulation limits. Although the experiments included measurements of real-world plume particles (mixture of non-volatile and semi-volatile particles) and not only the non-volatile regulated particles, it is important to note that the emissions of regulated particles were also estimated to exceed the limits, based on non-volatile >23 nm particle fraction from curbside studies. Moreover, the emission factors of the >1.3 nm particles were mostly about an order of magnitude higher compared to the >23 nm particles.

Impact from the evolution of private vehicle fleet composition on traffic related emissions in the small-medium automotive city.

Understanding the emission characteristics in the evolution of private vehicle fleet composition has become a key issue to be addressed to develop appropriate emission mitigation strategies in transportation sector. In this study, the influence of such evolution on on-road emissions was investigated based on a comprehensive dataset encompassing vehicle fleet composition, demographic, economic, and energy features from a representative small-medium automotive city in North America. The decoupling analysis was carried out to assess the dynamic linkage between environmental pressure exerted by the transportation sector and economic growth at both city level and national level in North America. We also developed an approach that supports the long-term traffic-related air pollutant prediction and investigated the potential influence on urban air quality. A sharp upward trajectory was observed in the quantity of SUVs from 2001 to 2018, gradually replacing the dominance of the quantity of four-door cars. There was a significant shift in the GHG emissions emitted from vehicle types used for passenger transport: emissions from SUVs and trucks rose by 374.0% and 69.3%, respectively, whereas emissions from four-door cars, two-door cars, station wagons, and vans all decreased. The changes in vehicle composition, along with the steady trend in GHG emissions from private fleet and decrease in on-road air pollutant concentrations found in Regina, were a response to the establishment of federal fuel economy standards and improved fuel economy. Relative decoupling was observed in aggregate for Regina and Canada in most of the years while both experienced economic downturns and increases in environmental pressure in the form of emissions from 2014 to 2015. The predicted results also demonstrate the high capability of XGboost machine learning algorithm in predicting on-road air pollutant concentrations of CO, PM2.5, and NOX.

Vehicular fleet characterisation and assessment of the on-road mobile source emission inventory of a Latin American intermediate city.

The management of urban mobile-source emissions is nowadays a challenging topic. This paper describes a comprehensive and practical analysis of the vehicular fleet characterisation and the 2018 on-road mobile source emission inventory for Bahía Blanca (Argentina), a medium-size Latin American city. An exhaustive segmentation of the vehicle fleet was done to obtain more real results from the emission inventory carried out by COPERT software. Results for 2018, allow us to conclude that motorcycles were the main source of CO, NMVOC, CO2 and CH4. While, light commercial vehicles were the ones that emitted the most amount of NOx. Finally, it was concluded that the polluting emissions observed in 2013 are higher than the 2018's ones, in spite of the growth of the vehicular fleet (12.45% in 2018 respect to 2013). This may mainly be due to the incorporation of a new, more efficient emission control technology in vehicular fleet of 2018. However, these improvements result in increased GHGs emissions, which is still a challenge in this area. Finally, the main trends for vehicle flow and emissions detected in 2020 are presented.

Assessing the Impact of Vehicle Speed Limits and Fleet Composition on Air Quality Near a School.

Traffic is a major source of urban air pollution that affects health, especially among children. As lower speed limits are commonly applied near schools in many cities, and different governments have different policies on vehicle fleet composition, this research estimated how different speed limits and fleet emissions affect air quality near a primary school. Based on data of traffic, weather, and background air quality records in Dublin from 2013, traffic, emission, and dispersion models were developed to assess the impact of different speed limits and fleet composition changes against current conditions. Outside the school, hypothetical speed limit changes from 30 km/h to 50 km/h could reduce the concentration of NO2 and PM10 by 3% and 2%; shifts in the fleet from diesel to petrol vehicles could reduce these pollutants by 4% and 3% but would increase the traffic-induced concentrations of CO and Benzene by 63% and 35%. These changes had significantly larger impacts on air quality on streets with higher pollutant concentrations. Findings suggest that both road safety and air quality should be considered when determining speed limits. Furthermore, fleet composition has different impacts on different pollutants and there are no clear benefits associated with incentivising either diesel or petrol engine vehicles.

Estimated evolution of total pollutant gas emissions associated with vehicle activity in the Metropolitan Region of Porto Alegre until 2030

ABSTRACT In recent years, the majority of economic sectors in Brazil have gone through processes of development and transformation. These processes have led to increases in environmental pollution of all kinds; air pollution being one of the most adverse. The Brazilian transportation sector, which heavily affects the air quality, experienced a significant increase in its vehicle fleet thus provoking larger emissions of pollutant gases, mainly in regions with high population density such as the Metropolitan Region of Porto Alegre (MRPA). Within this research, considering mainly the ozone precursor species and Carbon Monoxide and using the year 2001 as a base year, scenarios are obtained for vehicular emissions of pollutant gases in the MRPA until the year 2030. In addition, scenarios related to the evolution of the study region's vehicle fleet were estimated. The statistical tool LEAP (Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System) was used. The scenario analysis shows that the vehicle fleet will grow exponentially until 2030, considering that the Light Flex vehicles category will mainly contribute to this increase. It is also noted that vehicle emissions of CO, NOx, and THC decrease in the region. The decrease is caused mainly by the renewal of technology in new vehicles and the implementation of emission control programs created by the government.