Population cause of death estimation using verbal autopsy methods in large-scale field trials of maternal and child health: lessons learned from a 20-year research collaboration in Central Ghana.

Low and middle-income countries continue to use Verbal autopsies (VAs) as a World Health Organisation-recommended method to ascertain causes of death in settings where coverage of vital registration systems is not yet comprehensive. Whilst the adoption of VA has resulted in major improvements in estimating cause-specific mortality in many settings, well documented limitations have been identified relating to the standardisation of the processes involved. The WHO has invested significant resources into addressing concerns in some of these areas; there however remains enduring challenges particularly in operationalising VA surveys for deaths amongst women and children, challenges which have measurable impacts on the quality of data collected and on the accuracy of determining the final cause of death. In this paper we describe some of our key experiences and recommendations in conducting VAs from over two decades of evaluating seminal trials of maternal and child health interventions in rural Ghana. We focus on challenges along the entire VA pathway that can impact on the success rates of ascertaining the final cause of death, and lessons we have learned to optimise the procedures. We highlight our experiences of the value of the open history narratives in VAs and the training and skills required to optimise the quality of the information collected. We describe key issues in methods for ascertaining cause of death and argue that both automated and physician-based methods can be valid depending on the setting. We further summarise how increasingly popular information technology methods may be used to facilitate the processes described. Verbal autopsy is a vital means of increasing the coverage of accurate mortality statistics in low- and middle-income settings, however operationalisation remains problematic. The lessons we share here in conducting VAs within a long-term surveillance system in Ghana will be applicable to researchers and policymakers in many similar settings.

Assessment of the quality of the vital registration system for under-5 mortality in Yucatan, Mexico.

INTRODUCTION: Vital registration is an important element in health information systems which can inform policy and strengthen health systems. Mexico has a well-functioning vital registration system; however, there is still room for improvement, especially for deaths of children under 5. This study assesses the quality of the vital registration system in capturing deaths and evaluates the quality of cause of death certification in under-5 deaths in Yucatan, Mexico. METHODS: We collected information on under-5 deaths that occurred in 2015 and 2016 in Yucatan, Mexico. We calculated the Vital Statistics Performance Index (VSPI) to have a general assessment of the vital registration performance. We examined the agreement between vital registration records and medical records at the individual and population levels using the chance-corrected concordance (CCC) and cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy as quality metrics. RESULTS: We identified 966 records from the vital registry for all under-5 deaths, and 390 were linked to medical records of deaths occurring at public hospitals. The Yucatan vital registration system captured 94.8% of the expected under-5 deaths, with an overall VSPI score of 87.2%. Concordance between underlying cause of death listed in the vital registry and the cause determined by the medical record review varied substantially across causes, with a mean overall chance-corrected concordance across causes of 6.9% for neonates and 46.9% for children. Children had the highest concordance for digestive diseases, and neonates had the highest concordance for meningitis/sepsis. At the population level, the CSMF accuracy for identifying the underlying cause listed was 35.3% for neonates and 67.7% for children. CONCLUSIONS: Although the vital registration system has overall good performance, there are still problems in information about causes of death for children under 5 that are related mostly to certification of the causes of death. The accuracy of information can vary substantially across age groups and causes, with causes reported for neonates being generally less reliable than those for older children. Results highlight the need to implement strategies to improve the certification of causes of death in this population.

A comparison of approaches to measuring maternal mortality in Bangladesh, Mozambique, and Bolivia.

BACKGROUND: Many low- and middle-income countries cannot measure maternal mortality to monitor progress against global and country-specific targets. While the ultimate goal for these countries is to have complete civil registrations systems, other interim strategies are needed to provide timely estimates of maternal mortality. OBJECTIVE: The objective is to inform on potential options for measuring maternal mortality. METHODS: This paper uses a case study approach to compare methodologies and estimates of pregnancy-related mortality ratio (PRMR)/maternal mortality ratio (MMR) obtained from four different data sources from similar time periods in Bangladesh, Mozambique, and Bolivia-national population census; post-census mortality survey; household sample survey; and sample vital registration system (SVRS). RESULTS: For Bangladesh, PRMR from the 2011 census falls closely in line with the 2010 household survey and SVRS estimates, while SVRS' MMR estimates are closer to the PRMR estimates obtained from the household survey. Mozambique's PRMR from household survey method is comparable and shows an upward trend between 1994 and 2011, whereas the post-census mortality survey estimated a higher MMR for 2007. Bolivia's DHS and post-census mortality survey also estimated comparable MMR during 1998-2003. CONCLUSIONS: Overall all these data sources presented in this paper have provided valuable information on maternal mortality in Bangladesh, Mozambique, and Bolivia. It also outlines recommendations to estimate maternal mortality based on the advantages and disadvantages of several approaches. CONTRIBUTION: Recommendations in this paper can help health administrators and policy planners in prioritizing investment for collecting reliable and contemporaneous estimates of maternal mortality while progressing toward a complete civil registration system.

Sex-ratio at birth in Nigeria: A demographic perspective.

The study attempts at estimating the sex-ratio at birth in Nigeria. The study focuses on demographic surveys with complete maternity histories, including some 0.50 million births. It compares results with published estimates from births in health facilities and a few data from vital registration, including some 1.13 million births. Results from demographic surveys give an estimate of about 106 boys for 100 girls. There were no significant variations by large region in the country, and no significant trend over the years (1990-2018). Published estimates provided a similar value (106.2), with somewhat lower value in health facilities (105.3), and somewhat higher values in local vital registration (106.8), and major variations among available studies. Despite uncertainty, Nigeria appears to have higher sex-ratios than most African countries, with the exception of Ethiopia, and higher values than its five neighboring countries. Reasons for these high values of the secondary sex-ratio are discussed.

Sex-ratio at birth in Nigeria: A demographic perspective

The study attempts at estimating the sex-ratio at birth in Nigeria. The study focuses on demographic surveys with complete maternity histories, including some 0.50 million births. It compares results with published estimates from births in health facilities and a few data from vital registration, including some 1.13 million births. Results from demographic surveys give an estimate of about 106 boys for 100 girls. There were no significant variations by large region in the country, and no significant trend over the years (1990-2018). Published estimates provided a similar value (106.2), with somewhat lower value in health facilities (105.3), and somewhat higher values in local vital registration (106.8), and major variations among available studies. Despite uncertainty, Nigeria appears to have higher sex-ratios than most African countries, with the exception of Ethiopia, and higher values than its five neighboring countries. Reasons for these high values of the secondary sex-ratio are discussed. (Afr J Reprod Health 2022; 26[4]: 92-97).

Has demography witnessed a data revolution? Promises and pitfalls of a changing data ecosystem.

Over the past 25 years, technological improvements that have made the collection, transmission, storage, and analysis of data significantly easier and more cost efficient have ushered in what has been described as the 'big data' era or the 'data revolution'. In the social sciences context, the data revolution has often been characterized in terms of increased volume and variety of data, and much excitement has focused on the growing opportunity to repurpose data that are the by-products of the digitalization of social life for research. However, many features of the data revolution are not new for demographers, who have long used large-scale population data and been accustomed to repurposing imperfect data not originally collected for research. Nevertheless, I argue that demography, too, has been affected by the data revolution, and the data ecosystem for demographic research has been significantly enriched. These developments have occurred across two dimensions. The first involves the augmented granularity, variety, and opportunities for linkage that have bolstered the capabilities of 'old' big population data sources, such as censuses, administrative data, and surveys. The second involves the growing interest in and use of 'new' big data sources, such as 'digital traces' generated through internet and mobile phone use, and related to this, the emergence of 'digital demography'. These developments have enabled new opportunities and offer much promise moving forward, but they also raise important ethical, technical, and conceptual challenges for the field.

O que dizem as informações sobre mortalidade dos Registros Hospitalares de Câncer (RHC) em hospital de referência de Minas Gerais, 2016-2017 / What the information on mortality from the Hospital Cancer Registry (RHC) reveals about a reference hospital in Minas Gerais, 2016-2017

Resumo Introdução A qualidade das informações dos Registros Hospitalares de Câncer (RHC) necessita de avaliação quanto à cobertura, completitude e concordância da causa básica(CB) com o Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM). Objetivo Avaliar a qualidade dos RHC nas duas unidades hospitalares do Instituto Mário Penna: Hospitais Mário Penna (HMP) e Luxemburgo (HL), Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, em 2016 e 2017, nos atributos mencionados. Método Por captura-recaptura (RHC x RHC), avaliaram-se, por unidade, cobertura, completitude da variável "óbito por câncer" e concordância da a (CB) com a causa da pesquisa (CP). Por relacionamento determinístico (RHC x SIM) avaliaram-se cobertura e concordância da CB. Resultados A cobertura dos RHC foi boa eexcelente (88,8% e 95,3%); a completitude foi ruim (34,6% e 32,6%) no HMP e HL respectivamente; por capítulo da CID-10, não houve concordância da CB com a CP. Observaram-se excelentes cobertura (94,7%) e concordância (94,5%) entre CP e SIM; observou-se sub-registro de 38 neoplasias no SIM, com reclassificação de causas pouco úteis. Conclusão A aplicação das técnicas de captura-recaptura e relacionamento determinístico contribuiu para a melhora da qualidade da informação dos RHC, com redução da incompletude nos RHC e correção da CB nos RHC e no SIM.

Abstract Bakground The quality of information from the Hospital Cancer Records (HRC) needs to be evaluated regarding coverage, completeness and agreement between the underlying cause (UC) as registered in the HRC and the Mortality Information System (SIM). Objective To assess the quality of the HRC in the two Instituto Mário Penna hospitals: Mário Penna (HMP) and Luxemburgo (HL) in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, between 2016-2017. Method By capture-recapture (RHC x RHC), we assessed coverage, completeness of the "cancer death" variable and agreement between underlying cause (UC) with the cause of the research (CR), in each hospital. Deterministic relationship (RHC x SIM) was used to asses UC coverage and agreement between systems. Results The coverage of deaths at the HRC was good/excellent (88.8% and 95.3%); completeness was poor (34.6% and 32.6%) in HMP and HL respectively; per ICD-10 chapter, there was no agreement between CB and CP. Excellent coverage (94.7%) and agreement (94.5%) of CR and SIM were observed; 38 neoplasms were under-reported in the SIM, with reclassification of less useful causes. Conclusion Applying capture-recapture and deterministic linkage techniques contributed in improving the quality of information in the HRC, with a reduction in incompleteness in the HRC and correction of the UC in both HRC and SIM.

Public health utility of cause of death data: applying empirical algorithms to improve data quality.

BACKGROUND: Accurate, comprehensive, cause-specific mortality estimates are crucial for informing public health decision making worldwide. Incorrectly or vaguely assigned deaths, defined as garbage-coded deaths, mask the true cause distribution. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has developed methods to create comparable, timely, cause-specific mortality estimates; an impactful data processing method is the reallocation of garbage-coded deaths to a plausible underlying cause of death. We identify the pattern of garbage-coded deaths in the world and present the methods used to determine their redistribution to generate more plausible cause of death assignments. METHODS: We describe the methods developed for the GBD 2019 study and subsequent iterations to redistribute garbage-coded deaths in vital registration data to plausible underlying causes. These methods include analysis of multiple cause data, negative correlation, impairment, and proportional redistribution. We classify garbage codes into classes according to the level of specificity of the reported cause of death (CoD) and capture trends in the global pattern of proportion of garbage-coded deaths, disaggregated by these classes, and the relationship between this proportion and the Socio-Demographic Index. We examine the relative importance of the top four garbage codes by age and sex and demonstrate the impact of redistribution on the annual GBD CoD rankings. RESULTS: The proportion of least-specific (class 1 and 2) garbage-coded deaths ranged from 3.7% of all vital registration deaths to 67.3% in 2015, and the age-standardized proportion had an overall negative association with the Socio-Demographic Index. When broken down by age and sex, the category for unspecified lower respiratory infections was responsible for nearly 30% of garbage-coded deaths in those under 1 year of age for both sexes, representing the largest proportion of garbage codes for that age group. We show how the cause distribution by number of deaths changes before and after redistribution for four countries: Brazil, the United States, Japan, and France, highlighting the necessity of accounting for garbage-coded deaths in the GBD. CONCLUSIONS: We provide a detailed description of redistribution methods developed for CoD data in the GBD; these methods represent an overall improvement in empiricism compared to past reliance on a priori knowledge.

Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems.

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. METHODS: We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. RESULTS: All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries-apart from Ecuador-across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups-the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. CONCLUSIONS: Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths.

Born on U.S. Soil: Access to Healthcare for Neonates of Non-Citizens.

INTRODUCTION: The 14th amendment of the United States (US) Constitution guarantees citizenship to infants born in the US. With documentation of citizenship, typically through a birth certificate, neonates gain official identity and the opportunity to qualify for services like healthcare. Most guidance on caring for immigrant children assumes that access to health care is guaranteed for babies born in the US. In practice, some infants born to non-citizen mothers face barriers in obtaining services fundamental to neonatal health. METHODS: We conducted a review of the literature to identify articles on access to care for infants born to non-citizen mothers in the US. Because of the scarcity of relevant peer-reviewed published literature on this topic, the search was broadened to grey literature including news articles, online articles, and legal reviews. Using these aggregated sources, we created a framework for understanding maternal immigration status and barriers to healthcare for neonates born in the US. We discuss risk factors from the public health, historical and ethical perspectives. RESULTS: Barriers exist for some mother-infant dyads in obtaining services such as healthcare, health insurance and supplemental nutrition programs. At-risk dyads include neonates of undocumented immigrants and birth tourists as well as neonates born to women on visas. The impact of these barriers on health-seeking behaviors, access to care, and health outcomes for these neonates is largely unknown. DISCUSSION: The framework for understanding challenges of non-citizen mothers and their infants that we present in this article provides a resource for physicians and public health professionals serving this population. That much of the literature exists outside of healthcare highlights the need for more scholarly work on this problem. Future research will better inform advocacy and public health efforts to protect this vulnerable population of newborn citizens and their mothers.

Effectiveness of training interventions to improve quality of medical certification of cause of death: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Valid cause of death data are essential for health policy formation. The quality of medical certification of cause of death (MCCOD) by physicians directly affects the utility of cause of death data for public policy and hospital management. Whilst training in correct certification has been provided for physicians and medical students, the impact of training is often unknown. This study was conducted to systematically review and meta-analyse the effectiveness of training interventions to improve the quality of MCCOD. METHODS: This review was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO; Registration ID: CRD42020172547) and followed Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. CENTRAL, Ovid MEDLINE and Ovid EMBASE databases were searched using pre-defined search strategies covering the eligibility criteria. Studies were selected using four screening questions using the Distiller-SR software. Risk of bias assessments were conducted with GRADE recommendations and ROBINS-I criteria for randomised and non-randomised interventions, respectively. Study selection, data extraction and bias assessments were performed independently by two reviewers with a third reviewer to resolve conflicts. Clinical, methodological and statistical heterogeneity assessments were conducted. Meta-analyses were performed with Review Manager 5.4 software using the 'generic inverse variance method' with risk difference as the pooled estimate. A 'summary of findings' table was prepared using the 'GRADEproGDT' online tool. Sensitivity analyses and narrative synthesis of the findings were also performed. RESULTS: After de-duplication, 616 articles were identified and 21 subsequently selected for synthesis of findings; four underwent meta-analysis. The meta-analyses indicated that selected training interventions significantly reduced error rates among participants, with pooled risk differences of 15-33%. Robustness was identified with the sensitivity analyses. The findings of the narrative synthesis were similarly suggestive of favourable outcomes for both physicians and medical trainees. CONCLUSIONS: Training physicians in correct certification improves the accuracy and policy utility of cause of death data. Investment in MCCOD training activities should be considered as a key component of strategies to improve vital registration systems given the potential of such training to substantially improve the quality of cause of death data.

ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PAST VALUES IN PROBABILISTIC PROJECTIONS OF THE TOTAL FERTILITY RATE FOR MOST COUNTRIES.

Since the 1940s, population projections have in most cases been produced using the deterministic cohort component method. However, in 2015, for the first time, in a major advance, the United Nations issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries based on Bayesian hierarchical models for total fertility and life expectancy. The estimates of these models and the resulting projections are conditional on the UN's official estimates of past values. However, these past values are themselves uncertain, particularly for the majority of the world's countries that do not have longstanding high-quality vital registration systems, when they rely on surveys and censuses with their own biases and measurement errors. This paper extends the UN model for projecting future total fertility rates to take account of uncertainty about past values. This is done by adding an additional level to the hierarchical model to represent the multiple data sources, in each case estimating their bias and measurement error variance. We assess the method by out-of-sample predictive validation. While the prediction intervals produced by the extant method (which does not account for this source of uncertainty) have somewhat less than nominal coverage, we find that our proposed method achieves closer to nominal coverage. The prediction intervals become wider for countries for which the estimates of past total fertility rates rely heavily on surveys rather than on vital registration data, especially in high fertility countries.

Completeness of death registration in the Civil Registration System, India (2005 to 2015).

Background & objectives: In many developing countries including India, the civil registration data are incomplete, inadequate and not timely, therefore, compromising the usefulness of these data. The completeness of registration of death (CoRD) in the Indian Civil Registration System (CRS) was assessed from 2005 to 2015 at State level to understand its current status and trends over time and also to identify gaps in data to improve CRS data quality. Methods: CoRD for each year for each State was calculated from the CRS reports for 2005-2015. Data were analyzed nationally by geographic region and individual State. The availability of CoRD by age group and sex was also reported. Results: About 40 per cent increase in CoRD was documented for India between 2005 and 2015, with CoRD of 76.6 per cent in 2015. CoRD was >90 per cent in the western and southern regions and the eastern, central and northeastern regions had CoRD lower than the Indian average in 2015. Among the 29 States, 16 (55.2%) State had CoRD >80 per cent and five (17.2%) <50 per cent and 10 States recorded 100 per cent CoRD. Despite the highest per cent increase during 2005-2015 (108.5%), CoRD in Uttar Pradesh was 44.2 per cent in 2015. Varying levels of progress in 2015 were seen between the State with similar CoRD estimates in 2015. Nagaland (-63.3%), Manipur (-33.1%) and Tripura (-30.3%) were the only States that documented a decrease in CoRD during 2005-2015. The age non-availability for India ranged from 37.0 per cent in 2009 to 37.9 per cent in 2015, an average of 41.5 per cent over the seven years and was an average of 35.6 and 36.6 per cent for males and females, respectively. Age was available for all registered deaths only in five (17.2%) of the 29 States in 2009 and four (13.8%) in 2015. Sex non-availability for the recorded deaths was much lower as compared with that for age. Interpretation & conclusions: Despite the significant progress made in CoRD in India, critical differences between the States within the CRS remain, with poor availability of reporting by age and sex. Concentrated efforts to assess the strengths and weaknesses at the State level of the CRS processes, quality of data and plausibility of information generated are needed in India.

Estimating cause-specific mortality in Madagascar: an evaluation of death notification data from the capital city.

BACKGROUND: Trends in cause-specific mortality in most African countries are currently estimated from epidemiological models because the coverage of the civil registration system is low and national statistics on causes of death are unreliable at the national level. We aim to evaluate the performance of the death notification system in Antananarivo, the capital city of Madagascar, to inform cause-of-death statistics. METHODS: Information on the sex of the deceased, dates of birth and death, and underlying cause of death were transcribed from death registers maintained in Antananarivo. Causes of death were coded in ICD-9 and mapped to cause categories from the Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD). The performance of the notification system was assessed based on the Vital Statistics Performance Index, including six dimensions: completeness of death registration, quality of cause of death reporting, quality of age and sex reporting, internal consistency, level of cause-specific detail, and data availability and timeliness. We redistributed garbage codes and compared cause-specific mortality fractions in death records and estimates from the GBD with concordance correlation coefficients. RESULTS: The death notification system in Antananarivo performed well on most dimensions, although 31% of all deaths registered over the period 1976-2015 were assigned to ICD codes considered as "major garbage codes" in the GBD 2016. The completeness of death notification, estimated with indirect demographic techniques, was higher than 90% in the period 1975-1993, and recent under-five mortality rates were consistent with estimates from Demographic and Health Surveys referring to the capital city. After redistributing garbage codes, cause-specific mortality fractions derived from death notification data were consistent with GBD 2016 for the whole country in the 1990s, with concordance correlation coefficients higher than 90%. There were larger deviations in recent years, with concordance correlation coefficients in 2015 at 0.74 (95% CI 0.66-0.81) for men and 0.81 (95% CI 0.74-0.86) for women. CONCLUSIONS: Death notification in Antananarivo is a low-cost data source allowing real-time mortality monitoring, with a potential to improve disease burden estimates. Further efforts should be directed towards evaluating data quality in urban centers in Madagascar and other African countries to fill important data gaps on causes of death.

Reliable mortality statistics in Myanmar: a qualitative assessment of challenges in two townships.

BACKGROUND: The vital registration system is universally recognized as the main source of mortality data which is essential for policy formulation, proper interventions and resource allocation to address priority health challenges. To improve availability and quality of mortality statistics by strengthening the vital registration system, understanding the current vital registration system is essential. This study identified challenges in generating reliable mortality statistics in the vital registration system of Myanmar. METHODS: Qualitative methods were used to collect data in two selected townships of Mandalay Region. Grey literature related to the management of mortality registration was reviewed; in-depth interviews of sixteen key informants and fourteen focus group discussions were conducted with those involved in death registration at the local level, such as healthcare providers, local administrators and knowledgeable adults in households where deaths occurred during the past three years. Thematic analysis was performed to identify system barriers in the death registration process. RESULTS: Weaknesses in the death registration system are classified in three areas: a) administrative which includes the lack of enforcement of mandatory death registration, limited issuance of death certificates and no formal mandatory notification of death events by households and; b) technical which includes absence of proper and regular on-the-job trainings, ineffective cause-of-death certification practice for deaths in the communities and the absence of routine data plausibility checks at the local level; and c) societal which includes poor community awareness and inadequate participation in death registration. CONCLUSION: The study highlighted challenges in the death registration system at the operational level, which undermines the achievement of a satisfactory level of completeness and accuracy of mortality data. We recommend establishing a strong legal framework, improving technical capacities and raising public awareness and cooperation to strengthen the system that can generate reliable mortality statistics.

On the estimation of population cause-specific mortality fractions from in-hospital deaths.

BACKGROUND: Almost all countries without complete vital registration systems have data on deaths collected by hospitals. However, these data have not been widely used to estimate cause of death (COD) patterns in populations because only a non-representative fraction of people in these countries die in health facilities. Methods that can exploit hospital mortality statistics to reliably estimate community COD patterns are required to strengthen the evidence base for disease and injury control programs. We propose a method that weights hospital-certified causes by the probability of death to estimate population cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs). METHODS: We used an established verbal autopsy instrument (VAI) to collect data from hospital catchment areas in Chandpur and Comilla Districts, Bangladesh, and Bohol province, the Philippines, between 2011 and 2014, along with demographic covariates for each death. Hospital medical certificates of cause of death (death certificates) were collected and mapped to the corresponding cause categories of the VAI. Tariff 2.0 was used to assign a COD for community deaths. Logistic regression models were created for broad causes in each country to calculate the probability of in-hospital death, given a set of covariate values. The reweighted CSMFs for deaths in the hospital catchment population, represented by each hospital death, were calculated from the corresponding regression models. RESULTS: We collected data on 4228 adult deaths in the Philippines and 3725 deaths in Bangladesh. Short time to hospital and education were consistently associated with in-hospital death in the Philippines and absence of a disability was consistently associated with in-hospital death in Bangladesh. Non-communicable diseases (excluding stroke) and stroke were the leading causes of death in both the Philippines (33.9%, 19.1%) and Bangladesh (46.1%, 21.1%) according to the reweighted method. The reweighted method generally estimated CSMFs that fell between those derived from hospitals and those diagnosed by Tariff 2.0. CONCLUSIONS: Statistical methods can be used to derive estimates of cause-specific probability of death in-hospital for Bangladesh and the Philippines to generate population CSMFs. In regions where hospital death certification is of reasonable quality and routine verbal autopsy is not applied, these estimates could be applied to generate cost-effective and robust CSMFs for the population.

Assessing the quality of medical death certification: a case study of concordance between national statistics and results from a medical record review in a regional hospital in the Philippines.

BACKGROUND: Medical certificates of cause of death (MCCOD) issued by hospital physicians are a key input to vital registration systems. Deaths certified by hospital physicians have been implicitly considered to be of high quality, but recent evidence suggests otherwise. We conducted a medical record review (MRR) of hospital MCCOD in the Philippines and compared the cause of death concordance with certificates coded by the Philippines Statistics Authority (PSA). METHODS: MCCOD for adult deaths in Bohol Regional Hospital (BRH) in 2007-2008 and 2011 were collected and reviewed by a team of study physicians. Corresponding MCCOD coded by the PSA were linked by a hospital identifier. The study physicians wrote a new MCCOD using the patient medical record, noted the quality of the medical record to produce a cause of death, and indicated whether it was necessary to change the underlying cause of death (UCOD). Chance-corrected concordance, cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy, and chance-corrected CSMF were used to examine the concordance between the MRR and PSA. RESULTS: A total of 1052 adult deaths were linked between the MRR and PSA. Median chance-corrected concordance was 0.73, CSMF accuracy was 0.85, and chance-corrected CSMF accuracy was 0.58. 74.8% of medical records were deemed to be of high enough quality to assign a cause of death, yet study physicians indicated that it was necessary to change the UCOD in 41% of deaths, 82% of which required addition of a new UCOD. CONCLUSIONS: Medical records were generally of sufficient quality to assign a cause of death and concordance between the PSA and MRR was reasonably high, suggesting that routine mortality statistics data are reasonably accurate for describing population level causes of death in Bohol. While overall agreement between the PSA and MRR in major cause groups was sufficient for public health purposes, improvements in death certification practices are recommended to help physicians differentiate between treatable (immediate) COD and COD that are important for public health surveillance.

Using three indicators to understand the parity-specific contribution of adolescent childbearing to all births.

INTRODUCTION: A strong focus on sexual and reproductive health of female adolescents is a key to achieving sustainable development goals, due to the large size of the current cohort in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) and adolescents' biological and social vulnerability. Several indicators of fertility among adolescents are in wide use, but the contribution of adolescent births to all births is poorly understood. We propose and calculate a package of three indicators capturing the contribution of adolescent births to all births, stratified by parity (first and second/higher). METHODS: We used Demographic and Health Survey data for 30 LMICs and vital registration for two high-income countries (to calculate levels and trends across a range of countries) for three time periods: 1990-1999, 2000-2009 and 2010-2015. The three indicators were calculated overall and by age thresholds (<16, <18 and <20 years) and exact ages, for each country and time point. Patterns of changes in indicators for the three cumulative thresholds over time are described. RESULTS: In the 30 LMICs, the percentage of all live births occurring to adolescents varied across countries, with a median of 18% for adolescents <20 years. Three countries (Jordan, Indonesia and Rwanda) had levels below 10%; Bangladesh had the highest at 33%. The contribution of adolescent first-order births to all first-order births was high; a median of 49%. Even among second-order and higher-order births, the contribution of adolescent childbearing was appreciable (median of 6%). Over the period under examination, the proportion of adolescent births among all live births declined in the majority of the LMICs. CONCLUSION: These three indicators add to our understanding of the scale of adolescent childbearing and can be used in conjunction with population estimates to assess the absolute need for age-appropriate and parity-appropriate reproductive, maternal and newborn healthcare and to monitor progress in improving young people's health.

Completeness of birth registration in Brazil: an overview of methods and data sources.

We provide an analysis of the main sources of data used to estimate fertility schedules in developing countries, giving special attention to Brazil. In addition to the brief history of various data sources, we present several indirect demographic methods, commonly used to estimate fertility and assess the quality of data. From the methods used, the Synthetic Relational Gompertz model gives the most robust estimates of fertility, independent of the data source considered. We conclude that different demographic data sources and methods generate differing estimates of fertility and that the country should invest in quality of birth statistics.

Comparing tariff and medical assistant assigned causes of death from verbal autopsy interviews in Matlab, Bangladesh: implications for a health and demographic surveillance system.

BACKGROUND: Deaths in developing countries often occur outside health facilities, making it extremely difficult to gather reliable cause of death (COD) information. Automated COD assignment using a verbal autopsy instrument (VAI) has been proposed as a reliable and cost-effective alternative to traditional physician-certified verbal autopsy, but its performance is still being evaluated. The purpose of this study was to compare the similarity of diagnosis by Medical Assistants (MA) in the Matlab Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) with the SmartVA Analyze 1.2 (Tariff 2.0) diagnosis. METHODS: This study took place between January 2011 and April 2014 in Matlab, Bangladesh. MA with 3 years of medical training assigned COD to Matlab residents by reviewing the information collected using the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) long-form VAI. Smart VA Analyze 1.2 automatically assigned COD using the same questionnaire. COD agreement and cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) were compared for MA and Tariff. RESULTS: Of the 4969 verbal autopsy cases reviewed, 4328 were adults, 296 were children, and 345 were neonates. Cohen's kappa was 0.38 (0.36, 0.40) for adults, 0.43 (0.38, 0.49) for children, and 0.27 (0.22, 0.33) for neonates. For adults, the top two COD for MA were stroke (29.6%) and ischemic heart diseases (IHD) (14.2%) and for Tariff these were stroke (32.0%) and IHD (14.0%). For children, the top two COD for MA were drowning (33.5%) and pneumonia (13.2%) and for Tariff these were also drowning (36.8%) and pneumonia (12.4%). For neonates, the top two COD for MA were birth asphyxia (41.2%) and meningitis/sepsis (22.3%) and for Tariff these were birth asphyxia (37.0%) and preterm delivery (30.9%). CONCLUSION: The CSMFs for Tariff and MA showed very close agreement across all age categories but some differences were observed for neonate preterm delivery and meningitis/sepsis. Given the known advantages of automated methods over physician certified verbal autopsy, the SmartVA software, incorporating the shortened VAI questionnaire and Tariff 2.0, could serve as a cost-effective alternative to Matlab MA to routinely collect and analyze verbal autopsy data in a HDSS to generate essential population level COD data for planning.