Prediction of health disorders in dairy cows monitored with collar based on binary logistic analysis / Previsão de distúrbios de saúde em vacas leiteiras monitoradas com base em coleira sobre análise logística binária

The objective of this study was to analyze data on physical activity and rumination time monitored via collars at the farm coupled with milk yield recorded by the rotary milking system to predict cows based on several disorders using the binary Logistic regression conducted with R software. Data for metritis (n=60), mastitis (n=98), lameness (n=35), and digestive disorders (n=52) were collected from 1,618 healthy cows used to construct the prediction model. To verify the feasibility and adaptability of the proposed method, we analyzed data of cows in the same herd (herd 1) not used to construct the model, and cows in another herd (herd 2) with data recorded by the same type of automated system, and led to detection of 75.0%, 64.2%, 74.2%, and 76.9% animals in herd 1 correctly predicted to suffer from metritis, mastitis, lameness, and digestive disorders, respectively. For cows in herd 2, 66.6%, 58.8%, 80.7%, and 71.4% were correctly predicted for metritis, mastitis, lameness, and digestive disorders, respectively. Compared with traditional clinical diagnoses by farm personnel, the algorithm developed allowed for earlier prediction of cows with a disorder.

Os objetivos deste estudo foram analisar dados sobre a atividade física e o tempo de ruminação monitorados através de coleiras na fazenda junto com a produção de leite registrada pelo sistema rotativo de ordenha para prever vacas com base em vários distúrbios utilizando o software de regressão logística binária realizado com o software R. Dados para metrite (n=60), mastite (n=98), manqueira (n=35) e distúrbios digestivos (n=52) foram coletados de 1.618 vacas saudáveis foram usados para construir o modelo de previsão. Para verificar a viabilidade e adaptabilidade do método proposto, analisamos os dados de vacas do mesmo rebanho (rebanho 1) não utilizadas para construir o modelo, e vacas de outro rebanho (rebanho 2) com dados registrados pelo mesmo tipo de sistema automatizado, e levamos à detecção de 75,0%, 64,2%, 74,2%, e 76,9% de animais do rebanho 1 previstos corretamente para sofrer de metrite, mastite, manqueira e distúrbios digestivos, respectivamente. Para as vacas do rebanho 2, 66,6%, 58,8%, 80,7% e 71,4% foram previstos corretamente para metrite, mastite, manqueira e distúrbios digestivos, respectivamente. Em comparação com os diagnósticos clínicos tradicionais feitos pelo pessoal da fazenda, o algoritmo desenvolvido permitiu a previsão antecipada de vacas com um distúrbio.

Mortalidad y factores asociados en pacientes cubanos infectados con VIH-1

Objetivo: Determinar las principales causas de muerte y los factores asociados en los pacientes infectados con el VIH ingresados en el hospital del Instituto de Medicina Tropical "Pedro Kourí" durante los años 2017-2018. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio retrospectivo de casos y controles para determinar las causas de la muerte y algunos factores asociados a ella, en el hospital del Instituto de Medicina Tropical "Pedro Kourí", en el período 2017-2018. Para determinar estos factores se utilizó un análisis multivariado basado en un modelo de regresión logística binaria. Resultados: Las causas de muerte más frecuentes fueron las asociadas al SIDA, fundamentalmente las infecciones oportunistas del sistema respiratorio (41,4%), seguidas por las neoplasias no asociadas al SIDA (25,1%). Los factores que mayor influencia tuvieron sobre la mortalidad fueron la presencia de enfermedad oportunista (OR 14,07 p<0,001) y de neoplasias no asociadas al SIDA (OR 6,76 p=0,005), la alteración de las funciones renal (3,54 p=0,019) y hepática (OR 2,90 p=0,054) y tener mayor carga viral (OR 1,50 p=0,001) y menos tiempo de diagnóstico al momento del ingreso (OR 0,793 p<0,001). El modelo matemático resultante del análisis permitió identificar los principales factores asociados a la mortalidad y explicar su relación con la misma. Conclusiones: Las enfermedades asociadas al SIDA, principalmente las infecciones oportunistas del sistema respiratorio, seguidas por las neoplasias no asociadas al SIDA fueron las causas predominantes de muerte en los pacientes infectados con el VIH que fallecieron en el Instituto de Medicina Tropical "Pedro Kourí" durante el período de estudio. La presencia de neoplasias no asociadas al SIDA, de enfermedades oportunistas, de alteraciones de las funciones renal y hepática, el aumento de la carga viral y el tener menos años de diagnóstico al momento del ingreso, fueron los factores que más contribuyeron a la mortalidad en los pacientes ingresados e infectados con el VIH. El modelo matemático resultante se ajustó bien a los datos y explicó de manera consistente los factores asociados a la mortalidad.

Aim: To determine the main causes of death and associated factors in HIV-infected patients admitted to the Tropical Medicine Institute "Pedro Kourí" hospital during the years 2017-2018. Methods: A retrospective case-control study was carried out to determine the causes of death and some factors associated with it, in the Tropical Medicine Institute "Pedro Kourí" hospital, in the period 2017-2018. To determine these factors, a multivariate analysis based on a binary logistic regression model was used. Results: The most frequent causes of death were those associated with AIDS, mainly opportunistic infections of the respiratory system (41.4%), followed by neoplasms not associated with AIDS (25.1%). The factors that had the greatest influence on mortality were the presence of opportunistic disease (OR 14.07 p <0.001) and neoplasms not associated with AIDS (OR 6.76 p = 0.005), alteration of renal functions (3, 54 p = 0.019) and liver (OR 2.90 p = 0.054) and have a higher viral load (OR 1.50 p = 0.001) and less time to diagnosis at admission (OR 0.793 p <0.001). The mathematical model resulting from the analysis made it possible to identify the main factors associated with mortality and explain their relationship with it. Conclusions: AIDS-associated diseases, mainly opportunistic infections of the respiratory system, followed by non-AIDS-associated neoplasms were the predominant causes of death in HIV-infected patients who died in the Tropical Medicine Institute "Pedro Kourí" during the study period. The presence of neoplasms not associated with AIDS, opportunistic diseases, alterations in kidney and liver functions, increased viral load and having fewer years of diagnosis at the time of admission, were the factors that most contributed to mortality in patients admitted and infected with HIV. The resulting mathematical model fitted the data well and consistently explained the factors associated with mortality.

Influencia de factores de riesgo en la predicción de un evento cardiovascular adverso en población adulta de prevención primaria en El Salvador / Influence of risk factors in the prediction of an adverse cardiovascular event in the adult population of primary prevention in El Salvador

Resumen En la región latinoamericana son escasos los modelos de predicción que permitan conocer cuáles factores de riesgo son más prevalentes y los pocos estudios disponibles no funcionan bien en esta población. Objetivo: Determinar la probabilidad y predicción que tiene los factores de riesgo de sexo, edad, presión arterial sistólica (PAS), índice de masa corporal (IMC), diabetes mellitus y tabaquismo sobre la aparición de un evento cardiovascular adverso (ECA) de una población salvadoreña. Metodología: Estudio de casos y controles de tipo retrospectivo y predictivo. Participaron 527 personas adultas que acudieron a consulta externa de cardiología sin eventos cardiovasculares previos registrados. Se utilizó la prueba de la ji al cuadrado (X2) y V de Cramer para hacer la comparación de frecuencias y la regresión logística binaria para determinar la predicción y las probabilidades estimadas de presentar un ECA en un periodo de cinco años. Resultados: Se encontró una correlación significativamente baja entre los ECA y el sexo (rΦ= -.164; p < .001), diabetes (rΦ=-.244; p < .001) y con el fumando (rΦ= -.159; p < .001). Además, un efecto moderado con la estratificación de riesgo (V de Cramer= .359; p < .001). Existe una predicción significativa (X2= 82.1; p < .001), la cual responde el 32,6 % del modelo. Conclusiones: Las variables de sexo, la edad, la presencia de diabetes mellitus y el fumado predicen la aparición de un ECA en un periodo de cinco años, mientras que el IMC y PAS no influyen significativamente en la probabilidad de padecer de un ECA.

Abstract Influence of risk factors in the prediction of an adverse cardiovascular event in the adult population of primary prevention in El Salvador In the Latin American region, there are few prediction models that allow us to know which risk factors are more prevalent and the few available studies do not work well in this population. Purpose: Determine the probability and prediction that the risk factors of sex, age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), body mass index (BMI), diabetes mellitus and smoking have on the appearance of an adverse cardiovascular event (ACE) in a Salvadoran population. Methods: Retrospective and predictive case-control study. A total of 527 adults participated in the outpatient cardiology consultation with no prior recorded cardiovascular events. Chi Square (X2) and Cramer's V were used to compare frequencies and binary logistic regression to determine the prediction and estimated probabilities of presenting an ACE in a period of 5 years. Results: A significantly low correlation was found between ACEs and sex (rΦ= -.164; p <.001), diabetes (rΦ= -.244; p <.001) and with smoking (rΦ= -.159; p <.001). Also, a moderate effect with risk stratification (Cramer's V = .359; p <.001). There is a significant prediction (X2 = 82.1; p <.001), which responds to 32.6% of the model. Conclusion: The variables of sex, age, the presence of diabetes mellitus and smoking predict the appearance of an RCT in a period of 5 years, while BMI and SBP do not significantly influence the probability of suffering from an ACE.

HLA-E genotyping and its relevance in kidney transplantation outcome.

HLA-E, a class I nonclassical HLA molecule, is expressed in all tissues and is involved in the regulation of both innate (by interaction with the CD94/NKG2 receptor expressed mainly in NK cells) and adaptive immunity (by interaction with T CD8+ cells), suggesting a possible role in the solid organ transplantation context. Transplanted patients with chronic kidney disease and their respective donors (N = 107 pairs) were genotyped for exons 2 and 3 of the HLA-E locus by sequence-based typing (SBT). Groups' genotype frequencies were compared regarding episodes of clinical rejection by global G test, and binary logistic regression was made to demonstrate the contribution of genetic variables vs epidemiological variables. Comparisons of donors' genotype frequencies showed significant differences (P = .0230), revealing a protective profile of E*01:01/*01:01 compared to the other genotypes (P = .0099; OR = 0.3088; CI [95%] = 0.1333-0.7157). The same happened when the aforementioned genotype was combined with the E*01:01/*01:01 recipients' genotype (P = .0065; OR = 0.1760; CI [95%] = 0.0517-0.5987). A binary logistic regression analysis was performed, and, of all variables considered, only two were included in the resulting model (P = .007; R2 Cox and Snell = 0.243; R2 Nagelkerke = 0.328)- "End-Stage Renal Disease" and "HLA class II Mismatches." A protective profile (E*01:01/*01:01) was observed between the recipients and donors, suggesting a possible impact of the HLA-E genotype in rejection episodes.

Factors Associated with Common Mental Disorders in Truck Drivers / Fatores Associados aos Transtornos Mentais Comuns em Caminhoneiros

Abstract This study aimed to identify the risk factors of Common Mental Disorders (CMD) using a sample of 565 Brazilian truck drivers. For data capture were applied the Self-Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20), Scale subscale of Psychosocial risks and questionnaire with socio-demographic, working and occupational stressors. The results obtained by multivariate binary logistic regression analysis, have explained the 39.9% of variation on CMD. The occupational stressor working hours is the predictor variable with highest impact, may implying in an increase of 5.41 times more chance of the trucker to present CMD. The results indicate actions by management level as work organization and public authorities with regard to the external work conditions.

Resumo Este estudo objetivou identificar os fatores de risco dos Transtornos Mentais Comuns (TMC) em uma amostra de 565 caminhoneiros brasileiros. Para a coleta de dados, foram utilizados o Self-Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20), Subescalas da Escala de Riscos Psicossociais e questionários sociodemográfico, laboral e de estressores ocupacionais. Os resultados obtidos por meio da análise de Regressão Logística Binária Multivariada explicaram 39,9% das variações dos TMC. A variável preditora de maior impacto foi o estressor ocupacional jornada de trabalho que implicou em um aumento de 5,41 vezes mais chance do caminhoneiro apresentar TMC. Os resultados sugerem ações por parte dos gestores quanto à organização do trabalho e por parte do poder público no que diz respeito às condições externas de trabalho.

BDNF and Tau as biomarkers of severity in multiple sclerosis.

AIM: Determine if serum levels of tau and BDNF can be used as severity biomarkers in multiple sclerosis (MS). PATIENTS & METHODS: Subjects with MS, older than 18 and younger than 55 years old were included; 74 patients with a diagnosis of relapsing-remitting MS, 11 with secondary-progressive MS, and 88 controls were included. Total tau and BDNF were measured by Western blot. RESULTS: Increased tau and decreased BDNF in MS patients compared with controls was found. Total-tau has a peak in relapsing-remitting MS, the second decile of the multiple sclerosis severity score, and in the lowest expanded disability status scale and is no different than controls for secondary-progressive MS patients and the most severe cases of MS. CONCLUSION: BDNF is a good biomarker for diagnosis of MS but not for severity or progression. Tau appears to have a more active role in the progression of MS.

Risk Factors Associated with Preterm Neonatal Mortality: A Case Study Using Data from Mt. Hope Women's Hospital in Trinidad and Tobago.

Preterm neonatal mortality contributes significantly to the high incidence of death among children under five years of age. Neonatal mortality also serves as an indicator of maternal health in society. The aim of the study is to examine the risk factors for preterm neonatal mortality at the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) at Mount Hope Women's Hospital in Trinidad and Tobago (MHWH). In this retrospective study, we included infants (N = 129), born < 37 weeks gestational age, between 1 January and 31 December 2015. Two binary logistic regression models (infant and maternal variables) were constructed to identify predictors of preterm neonatal mortality. Roughly 12% of the infants died after being admitted to the NICU. The binary logistic regression (infant model) had an excellent fit (area under the curve (AUC): 0.904, misclassification rate: 11.7%) whilst the maternal binary logistic model had a fair fit (AUC: 0.698). Birth weight, length of time on the ventilator and obstetric complications proved to significantly influence the odds of preterm neonatal death. The estimated models show that improvement in neonatal as well as maternal variables has direct impact on preterm neonatal mortality.

Factors associated with basketball field goals made in the 2014 NBA finals

AIMS: The main objective of this study was to analyze the factors that preceded field goals made in the 2014 NBA finals considering the number of passes per offense, shooting conditions, and offense type variables. METHODS: We assessed field goals attempted by 27 professional players that participated in the 2014 NBA finals. Data were collected by three researchers through an adapted version of the Technical-Tactical Performance Evaluation Tool in Basketball to systematically analyze all five games of those finals. Descriptive analysis consisted in absolute and relative frequency and inferential statistics were applied through Chi-Square test, Cohen's D for effect size, and binary logistic regression test. Significance levels were set at 5% and all statistics were applied through SPSS 23.0. RESULTS: Shooting efficacy was not associated with the number of passes made per offense. Regression statistics showed that shooting efficacy was highly associated with shooting condition rather than the offense type performed. However, fast breaks seem to lead to better shooting conditions (passively guarded and wide open) when compared to set and regained offenses. CONCLUSION: Evidence pointed to the importance of shooting condition as a determining factor in increasing the probability of field goals made throughout the games analyzed.(AU)