Global distribution, diversity, and ecological niche of Picozoa, a widespread and enigmatic marine protist lineage.

BACKGROUND: The backbone of the eukaryotic tree of life contains taxa only found in molecular surveys, of which we still have a limited understanding. Such is the case of Picozoa, an enigmatic lineage of heterotrophic picoeukaryotes within the supergroup Archaeplastida, which has emerged as a significant component of marine microbial planktonic communities. To enhance our understanding of the diversity, distribution, and ecology of Picozoa, we conduct a comprehensive assessment at different levels, from assemblages to taxa, employing phylogenetic analysis, species distribution modeling, and ecological niche characterization. RESULTS: Picozoa was among the ten most abundant eukaryotic groups, found almost exclusively in marine environments. The phylum was represented by 179 Picozoa's OTU (pOTUs) placed in five phylogenetic clades. Picozoa community structure had a clear latitudinal pattern, with polar assemblages tending to cluster separately from non-polar ones. Based on the abundance and occupancy pattern, the pOTUs were classified into four categories: Low-abundant, Widespread, Polar, and Non-polar. We calculated the ecological niche of each of these categories. Notably, pOTUs sharing similar ecological niches were not closely related species, indicating a phylogenetic overdispersion in Picozoa communities. This could be attributed to competitive exclusion and the strong influence of the seasonal amplitude of variations in environmental factors, such as temperature, shaping physiological and ecological traits. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, this work advances our understanding of uncharted protists' evolutionary dynamics and ecological strategies. Our results highlight the importance of understanding the species-level ecology of marine heteroflagellates like Picozoa. The observed phylogenetic overdispersion challenges the concept of phylogenetic niche conservatism in protist communities, suggesting that closely related species do not necessarily share similar ecological niches. Video Abstract.

Comparative Genomics Supports Ecologically Induced Selection as a Putative Driver of Banded Penguin Diversification.

The relative importance of genetic drift and local adaptation in facilitating speciation remains unclear. This is particularly true for seabirds, which can disperse over large geographic distances, providing opportunities for intermittent gene flow among distant colonies that span the temperature and salinity gradients of the oceans. Here, we delve into the genomic basis of adaptation and speciation of banded penguins, Galápagos (Spheniscus mendiculus), Humboldt (Spheniscus humboldti), Magellanic (Spheniscus magellanicus), and African penguins (Spheniscus demersus), by analyzing 114 genomes from the main 16 breeding colonies. We aim to identify the molecular mechanism and genomic adaptive traits that have facilitated their diversifications. Through positive selection and gene family expansion analyses, we identified candidate genes that may be related to reproductive isolation processes mediated by ecological thermal niche divergence. We recover signals of positive selection on key loci associated with spermatogenesis, especially during the recent peripatric divergence of the Galápagos penguin from the Humboldt penguin. High temperatures in tropical habitats may have favored selection on loci associated with spermatogenesis to maintain sperm viability, leading to reproductive isolation among young species. Our results suggest that genome-wide selection on loci associated with molecular pathways that underpin thermoregulation, osmoregulation, hypoxia, and social behavior appears to have been crucial in local adaptation of banded penguins. Overall, these results contribute to our understanding of how the complexity of biotic, but especially abiotic, factors, along with the high dispersal capabilities of these marine species, may promote both neutral and adaptive lineage divergence even in the presence of gene flow.

Non-indigenous species and their realized niche in tidepools along the South-East Pacific coast.

Non-indigenous species (NIS) have the potential to colonize and become established in a wide range of coastal habitats. Species with broad environmental tolerances can quickly adapt to local conditions and expand their niches along environmental gradients, and even colonize habitats with extreme abiotic conditions. Here we report and document the distribution of eight marine NIS (four seaweed and four invertebrate species) found in tidepools along a 3000 km latitudinal gradient along the Pacific coast of Chile (18.4°S to 41.9°S). The seaweed NIS Codium fragile, Capreolia implexa, Schottera nicaeensis and Mastocarpus latissimus were mostly distributed towards high latitudes (i.e., more southerly locations), where temperatures in tidepools were low. The invertebrate NIS Anemonia alicemartinae, Ciona robusta, Bugula neritina and Bugulina flabellata were more common towards low latitudes, where high temperatures were registered in the tidepools. Across the intertidal gradient, seaweed NIS were mostly found in pools in the mid and low intertidal zone, while invertebrate NIS occurred mostly in pools from the mid and upper intertidal zones. The realized niche spaces of NIS (based on the Outlying Mean Index, OMI) in the study area were mainly influenced by environmental conditions of temperature and salinity (along the latitudinal and intertidal gradients), while other tidepool characteristics (depth, surface area, exposition, and complexity) only had minor effects. Five of the eight NIS exhibited a realized niche space coinciding with the average tidepool environmental conditions, while marginal niches were occupied by species with affinities for specific temperatures and salinities along the latitudinal and intertidal gradients. Our results indicate that physiological tolerances to environmental factors play a fundamental role in the distribution of seaweed and invertebrate NIS in tidepools along the Chilean coast. This study confirms that tidepools offer suitable conditions for some seaweed and invertebrate NIS, potentially facilitating their invasion into new natural habitats.

Can upwelling regions be potential thermal refugia for marine fishes during climate warming?

Species are expected to migrate to higher latitudes as warming intensifies due to anthropogenic climate change since physiological mechanisms have been adapted to maximize fitness under specific temperatures. However, literature suggests that upwellings could act as thermal refugia under climate warming protecting marine ecosystem diversity. This research aimed to predict the effects of climate warming on commercial and non-commercial fish species reported in official Mexican documents (>200 species) based on their thermal niche to observe if upwellings can act as potential thermal refugia. Present (2000-2014) and Representative Concentration Pathway (6.0 and 8.5) scenarios (2040-2050 and 2090-2100) have been considered for this work. Current and future suitability patterns, species distribution, richness, and turnover were calculated using the minimum volume ellipsoids as algorithm. The results in this study highlight that beyond migration to higher latitudes, upwelling regions could protect marine fishes, although the mechanism differed between the innate characteristics of upwellings. Most modeled species (primarily tropical fishes) found refuge in the tropical upwelling in Northern Yucatan. However, the highest warming scenario overwhelmed this region. In contrast, the Baja California region lies within the Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems. While the area experiences an increase in suitability, the northern regions have a higher upwelling intensity acting as environmental barriers for many tropical species. Conversely, in the southern regions where upwelling is weaker, species tend to congregate and persist even during elevated warming, according to the turnover analysis. These findings suggest that tropicalization in higher latitudes may not be as straightforward as previously assumed. Nevertheless, climate change affects numerous ecosystem features, such as trophic relationships, phenology, and other environmental variables not considered here. In addition, uncertainty still exists about the assumption of increasing intensity of upwelling systems.

Potential distribution modelling for Haemonchus contortus (Nematoda: Trichostrongylidae) in South America.

The species Haemonchus contortus occurs in many regions worldwide, mainly parasitising small ruminants and economically impacting animal production. Climate change is considered a driving force for the risk of diseases caused by helminths and can also affect relationships between parasites and their hosts, with the potential to cause losses in both animal production and biodiversity in general. The aim of this study was to model the potential distribution of H. contortus in South America. We used MaxEnt to perform the analyses and describe the contribution of important bioclimatic variables involved in the species distribution. Our results show that H. contortus colonised most of the areas with habitats that suit the species' environmental requirements and that this parasite presents habitat suitability in a future scenario. Understanding the effects of climate change on the occurrence and distribution of parasite species is essential for monitoring these pathogens, in addition to predicting the areas that tend to present future parasite outbreaks and identify opportunities to mitigate the impacts of the emergence of diseases caused by these organisms.

Leaf functional traits and ecological niche of Fagus grandifolia and Oreomunnea mexicana in natural forests and plantings as a proxy of climate change.

PREMISE: Functional traits reflect species' responses to environmental variation and the breadth of their ecological niches. Fagus grandifolia and Oreomunnea mexicana have restricted distribution in upper montane cloud forests (1700-2000 m a.s.l.) in Mexico. These species were introduced into plantings at lower elevations (1200-1600 m a.s.l.) that have climates predicted for montane forests in 2050 and 2070. The aim was to relate morphological leaf traits to the ecological niche structure of each species. METHODS: Leaf functional traits (leaf area, specific leaf area [SLA], thickness, and toughness) were analyzed in forests and plantings. Atmospheric circulation models and representative concentration pathways (RCPs: 2.6, 4.5, 8.5) were used to assess future climate conditions. Trait-niche relationships were analyzed by measuring the Mahalanobis distance (MD) from the forests and the plantings to the ecological niche centroid (ENC). RESULTS: For both species, leaf area and SLA were higher and toughness lower in plantings at lower elevation relative to those in higher-elevation forests, and thickness was similar. Leaf traits varied with distance from sites to the ENC. Forests and plantings have different environmental locations regarding the ENC, but forests are closer (MD 0.34-0.58) than plantings (MD 0.50-0.70) for both species. CONCLUSIONS: Elevation as a proxy for expected future climate conditions influenced the functional traits of both species, and trait patterns related to the structure of their ecological niches were consistent. The use of distances to the ENC is a promising approach to explore variability in species' functional traits and phenotypic responses in optimal versus marginal environmental conditions.

Identifying Areas of Invasion Risk and Changes in the Ecological Niche Occupied by the Coffee Leaf Miner Leucoptera coffeella (Lepidoptera: Lyonetiidae).

Insects of economic importance such as Leucoptera coffeella can cause high defoliation in plants and reduce crop yields. We aimed to identify changes in the ecological niche and potential zones of the invasion. Occurrence records were obtained from databases and bibliography. WorldClim V2.0 bioclimatic layers were used. For the modeling of the potential distribution, the kuenm R package was used by executing the Maxent algorithm. The potential distribution models suggested greatest environmental suitability extends from Europe, South Asia, and Central and South Africa, showing the "tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests" as the ecoregion that presents the greatest probability of the presence of L. coffeella. The potential distribution model projected in the invaded area agrees with the known distribution in the region (America), although the results show that it is occupying environmental spaces not present in the area of origin. This species presented a large proportion of the invaded niche that overlaps the native niche and is colonizing new environmental conditions in the invaded area relative to its native distribution (Africa). This information could be used in the planning of coffee crops on the American continent.

A MaxEnt Model of Citrus Black Fly Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) under Different Climate Change Scenarios.

The citrus blackfly (CBF), Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby, is an exotic pest native to Southeast Asia that has spread rapidly to the world's main centers of citrus production, having been recently introduced to Brazil. In this study, a maximum entropy niche model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the potential worldwide distribution of CBF under current and future climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050. These future scenarios came from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), SSP1-2.6, and SSP5-8.5. The MaxEnt model predicted the potential distribution of CBF with area under receiver operator curve (AUC) values of 0.953 and 0.930 in the initial and final models, respectively. The average temperature of the coldest quarter months, precipitation of the rainiest month, isothermality, and precipitation of the driest month were the strongest predictors of CBF distribution, with contributions of 36.7%, 14.7%, 13.2%, and 10.2%, respectively. The model based on the current time conditions predicted that suitable areas for the potential occurrence of CBF, including countries such as Brazil, China, the European Union, the USA, Egypt, Turkey, and Morocco, are located in tropical and subtropical regions. Models from SSP1-2.6 (2030 and 2050) and SSP5-8.5 (2030) predicted that suitable habitats for CBF are increasing dramatically worldwide under future climate change scenarios, particularly in areas located in the southern US, southern Europe, North Africa, South China, and part of Australia. On the other hand, the SSP5-8.5 model of 2050 indicated a great retraction of the areas suitable for CBF located in the tropical region, with an emphasis on countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, and India. In general, the CMIP6 models predicted greater risks of invasion and dissemination of CBF until 2030 and 2050 in the southern regions of the USA, European Union, and China, which are some of the world's largest orange producers. Knowledge of the current situation and future propagation paths of the pest serve as tools to improve the strategic government policies employed in CBF's regulation, commercialization, inspection, combat, and phytosanitary management.

Recent genetic, phenetic and ecological divergence across the Mesoamerican highlands: a study case with Diglossa baritula (Aves: Thraupidae).

The topographical, geological, climatic and biodiversity complexity of Mesoamerica has made it a primary research focus. The Mesoamerican highlands is a region with particularly high species richness and within-species variation. The Cinnamon-bellied Flowerpiercer, Diglossa baritula (Wagler, 1832), is a species endemic to the Mesoamerican highlands, with three allopatric subspecies currently recognized. To characterize divergence within this species, we integrated genomics, morphology, coloration and ecological niche modeling approaches, obtained from sampling individuals across the entire geographic distribution of the species. Our results revealed a clear genomic divergence between the populations to the east versus the west of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. In contrast to the genomic results, morphology and coloration analyses showed intermediate levels of differentiation, indicating that population groups within D. baritula have probably been under similar selective pressures. Our morphology results indicated that the only sexually dimorphic morphological variable is the wing chord, with males having a longer wing chord than females. Finally, ecological data indicated that there are differences in ecological niche within D. baritula. Our data suggest that D. baritula could contain two or more incipient species at the intermediate phase of the speciation continuum. These results highlight the importance of the geographical barrier of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and Pleistocene climatic events in driving isolation and population divergence in D. baritula. The present investigation illustrates the speciation potential of the D. baritula complex and the capacity of Mesoamerican highlands to create cryptic biodiversity and endemism.

Current and future potential distribution of Culex (Melanoconion) (Diptera: Culicidae) of public health interest in the Neotropics.

Anthropogenic activities are altering ecosystem stability and climate worldwide, which is disturbing and shifting arbovirus vector distributions. Although the overall geographic range of some epidemiologically important species is recognized, the spatiotemporal variation for other species in the context of climate change remains poorly understood. Here we predict the current potential distribution of 9 species of Culex (Melanoconion) based on an ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach and assess spatiotemporal variation in future climate change in the Neotropics. The most important environmental predictors were the mean temperature of the warmest season (27 °C), precipitation during the driest month (50 mm), and precipitation during the warmest season (>200 mm). The best current model for each species was transferred to the future general circulation model IPSL-CM6A-LR, using 2 shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (ssp1-2.6, ssp5-8.5). Under both scenarios of climatic change, an expansion of suitable areas can be observed followed by a strong reduction for the medium-long future under the worst scenario. The multivariate environmental similarity surface analysis indicated future novel climates outside the current range. However, none of the species would occur in those areas. Even if many challenges remain in improving methods for forecasting species responses to global climate change and arbovirus transmission, ENM has strong potential to be applied to the geographic characterization of these systems. Our study can be used for the monitoring of Culex (Melanoconion) species populations and their associated arboviruses, contributing to develop region-specific public health surveillance programs.

Testing the Tropical Niche Conservatism Hypothesis: Climatic Niche Evolution of Escallonia Mutis ex L. F. (Escalloniaceae).

We assess the Tropical Niche Conservatism Hypothesis in the genus Escallonia in South America using phylogeny, paleoclimate estimation and current niche modelling. We tested four predictions: (1) the climatic condition where the ancestor of Escallonia grew is megathermal; (2) the temperate niche is a derived condition from tropical clades; (3) the most closely related species have a similar current climate niche (conservation of the phylogenetic niche); and (4) there is a range expansion from the northern Andes to high latitudes during warm times. Our phylogenetic hypothesis shows that Escallonia originated 52.17 ± 0.85 My, in the early Eocene, with an annual mean temperature of 13.8 °C and annual precipitation of 1081 mm, corresponding to a microthermal to mesothermal climate; the species of the northern and central tropical Andes would be the ancestral ones, and the temperate species evolved between 32 and 20 My in a microthermal climate. The predominant evolutionary models were Brownian and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck. There was phylogenetic signal in 7 of the 9 variables, indicating conservation of the climatic niche. Escallonia would have originated in the central and southern Andes and reached the other environments by dispersion.

Nicho trófico y bioclimático de dos especies andinas cercanamente emparentadas de Liolaemus (Squamata, Liolaemidae) en el sur del Perú / Trophic and bioclimatic niche of two closely related Andean species of Liolaemus (Squamata, Liolaemidae) in southern Peru

Resumen En el presente estudio, los nichos trófico y bioclimático de Liolaemus annectens y L. etheridgei son evaluados. Ambas especies se distribuyen en la región andina del sur del Perú. La comparación interespecífica del nicho trófico reveló a Lygaeidae (Hemiptera) como presa fundamental de L. etheridgei, mientras que las presas fundamentales en la dieta de L. annectens fueron larvas de Lepidoptera, Araneae, Curculionidae (Coleoptera) y Lygaeidae. Asimismo, se observó un importante consumo de material vegetal en ambas especies, por lo que pueden considerarse omnívoras. Ambas especies presentaron una baja amplitud de nicho trófico, con una tendencia especialista de consumo de presas, y un bajo solapamiento de nicho trófico. En cuanto al nicho Grinnelliano, la evaluación y comparación de modelos de nichos ecológicos, permitieron identificar las áreas de mayor idoneidad para la sobrevivencia de estas especies. Estas se encuentran en áreas de Arequipa, Moquegua y Tacna para L. etheridgei y en Arequipa, Puno, y Cusco para L. annectens. Ambas especies mostraron una baja superposición de nicho ecológico, rechazando la hipótesis de que ocupan nichos idénticos.

Abstract In the present study, the trophic and bioclimatic niches of Liolaemus annectens and L. etheridgei are evaluated. Both species are distributed in the Andean region of southern Peru. Interspecific comparison of the trophic niche revealed Lygaeidae (Hemiptera) as a fundamental prey for L. etheridgei, while the fundamental preys in the diet of L. annectens were Lepidoptera larvae, Araneae, Curculionidae (Coleoptera), and Lygaeidae. Additionally, a significant consumption of plant material was observed in both species, indicating an omnivorous diet. Both species exhibited a narrow trophic niche breadth, with a specialist tendency in prey consumption and low trophic niche overlap. Regarding the Grinnellian niche, evaluation and comparison of ecological niche models allowed the identification of areas of highest suitability for the survival of these species. These include some areas in Arequipa, Moquegua and Tacna for L. etheridgei, and some areas in Arequipa, Puno and Cusco for L. annectens. Both species showed low ecological niche overlap, rejecting the hypothesis of identical niches.

High climatic ancestral affinity between the lineages of the Leishmania vector Psathyromyia shannoni sensu stricto (Diptera: Phlebotominae).

Psathyromyia (Psathyromyia) shannoni sensu stricto (Dyar) is a vector of Leishmania parasite and the second sandfly of medical importance with a wide geographical but discontinuous distribution in America. Preliminary genetic structure analysis using a mitochondrial marker shows that the species integrated by at least four lineages could be the result of ecological adaptations to different environmental scenarios, but this hypothesis had never been proven. The aim of the present study was to analyse whether the genetic structure that detected Pa. shannoni ss. is associated with divergence or conservatism niche. Using Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) theory, we estimated the potential distribution for each genetic lineage, and then, we evaluated the equivalency niche for assessing whether climatic niche was more different than expected. The ENMs identify different suitable distribution areas but the same climatic or ecological conditions for the genetic lineages of Pa. shannoni (conservatism niche). Our findings allow us to speculate that other potential processes or events could be related to the genetic differentiation of Pa. shannoni. These studies are important because they allow us to identify the factors that could restrict the potential distribution of the different lineages whose vectorial competence is still unknown.

Intermediate and definitive hosts of wild Schistosoma mansoni: ecological niche modeling of hosts in low endemicity areas

ABSTRACT The relationship between the environment and animal life began to be seen as an important tool to help control zoonoses. Climate variations lead to changes in the environment, which can influence the spatial distribution of species and, consequently, the spread of diseases to humans. Considered the main non-human definitive host species of Schistosoma mansoni in Brazil, the wild rodent Nectomys squamipes plays an important role as a reservoir in maintaining the schistosomiasis cycle in the absence of humans. This study demonstrates the results of ecological niche modeling of intermediate and definitive wild hosts of S. mansoni in the Regional Health Superintendence of Barbacena (Minas Gerais State), which has registered 31 municipalities, 80% of which are classified as endemic for parasitosis. Environmental variables associated with the distribution of each species were used based on information from the scientific collections of Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and Species Link to project the ecological niche model in the geographic space. Abiotic variables such as the mean annual temperature, isothermality, and precipitation seasonality were obtained from World Clim. Ecological niche modeling of the wild host, N. squamipes, revealed the occurrence of the species in geographic overlap with the Biomphalaria species. Knowing the influence of bioclimatic variables and identifying favorable conditions for the establishment, occurrence, and distribution of species are important information for developing strategic actions for the surveillance and control of this endemic species. The presence of the definitive wild host needs to be considered by control programs of schistosomiasis.

The risk of vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi remains high in the State of Paraná

BACKGROUND Monitoring and analysing the infection rates of the vector of Trypanosoma cruzi, that causes Chagas disease, helps assess the risk of transmission. OBJECTIVES A study was carried out on triatomine in the State of Paraná, Brazil, between 2012 and 2021 and a comparison was made with a previous study. This was done to assess the risk of disease transmission. METHODS Ecological niche models based on climate and landscape variables were developed to predict habitat suitability for the vectors as a proxy for risk of occurrence. FINDINGS A total of 1,750 specimens of triatomines were recorded, of which six species were identified. The overall infection rate was 22.7%. The areas with the highest risk transmission of T. cruzi are consistent with previous predictions in municipalities. New data shows that climate models are more accurate than landscape models. This is likely because climate suitability was higher in the previous period. MAIN CONCLUSION Regardless of uneven sampling and potential biases, risk remains high due to the wide presence of infected vectors and high environmental suitability for vector species throughout the state and, therefore, improvements in public policies aimed at wide dissemination of knowledge about the disease are recommended to ensure the State remains free of Chagas disease.

Use of a geospatial tool to predict the distribution of Melanoides tuberculata (Müller, 1774) and some native freshwater gastropods found in Brazil / Uso de ferramenta geoespacial para predição da distribuição de Melanoides tuberculata (Müller, 1774) e alguns gastrópodes límnicos nativos encontrados no Brasil

Abstract: One of the most common environmental impacts that has caused irreversible effects on ecosystems is the introduction of exotic species. In addition to the ecological disasters that can be caused, such as the decline and extinction of native species, this phenomenon can generate significant economic losses and the possibility of the spread of parasites that are transmitted by these exotic species. These processes can be accentuated by climate change, which over time alters the global distribution pattern of the affected species, generating cases of niche overlap with species that share similar niches. In this sense, the knowledge about the areas with possible occurrence these species can direct the monitoring and control measures. In this study, we developed current and future prediction models to identify areas of suitability in the Neotropics for Melanoides tuberculata (Müller, 1774) and nine species of mollusks native to the American continent using the ecological niche modeling tool. In addition, we evaluated the ecological niche overlap between the invasive species and the native species of freshwater mollusks to verify whether the effects of climate change would alter the distribution of these organisms. The following methodological procedures were adopted to prepare the forecasting models: records of occurrence of the mollusks in different databases and search of environmental data for climate conditions in current and future scenarios in WorldClim 2.0 (SSP2-4.5 and SSP2-8.5). Besides, modeling procedures using seven packages of R software, evaluation of the models using the true skill statistic (TSS) metric, construction of maps and quantification and overlapping of ecological niche of the species included in the analysis. The results indicated that several areas of the Neotropics are suitable for the occurrence of M. tuberculata in the current scenarios. Moreover, the suitable areas for its occurrence will probably be expanded in both future scenarios. For native species, there were significant differences in relation to the areas of suitability, with a reduction for some species. Niche similarity tests indicated significant overlap only between M. tuberculata and the planorbid Biomphalaria straminea (Dunker, 1848). We discuss that the expansion of M. tuberculata can have negative consequences, including the reduction of native gastropod species and the spread of trematodes of medical and veterinary importance that this mollusk can transmit.

Resumo: Um dos impactos ambientais mais comuns que tem causado efeitos irreversíveis nos ecossistemas é a introdução de espécies exóticas. Além dos desastres ecológicos que podem ser provocados, como o declínio e a extinção de espécies nativas, este fenómeno pode gerar perdas económicas significativas e a possibilidade de propagação de parasitas que são transmitidos por estas espécies exóticas. Esses processos podem ser acentuados pelas mudanças climáticas, que ao longo do tempo alteram o padrão de distribuição global das espécies afetadas, gerando casos de sobreposição de nicho com espécies que compartilham nichos semelhantes. Nesse sentido, o conhecimento sobre as áreas com possível ocorrência dessas espécies pode direcionar as medidas de monitoramento e controle. Neste estudo, desenvolvemos modelos de previsão atuais e futuros para identificar áreas de adequabilidade na região Neotropical para Melanoides tuberculata (Müller, 1774) e nove espécies de moluscos nativos do continente americano, utilizando a ferramenta de modelagem de nicho ecológico. Além disso, avaliamos a sobreposição de nicho ecológico entre a espécie invasora e as espécies nativas de moluscos de água doce para verificar se os efeitos das mudanças climáticas alterariam a distribuição desses organismos. Para a elaboração dos modelos de predição, foram adotados os seguintes procedimentos metodológicos: registros de ocorrência dos moluscos em diferentes bases de dados e busca de dados ambientais para condições climáticas em cenários atuais e futuros no WorldClim 2.0 (SSP2-4.5 e SSP2-8.5). Além disso, foram realizados procedimentos de modelagem utilizando sete pacotes do software R, avaliação dos modelos utilizando a métrica True Skill Statistic (TSS), construção de mapas e quantificação e sobreposição de nicho ecológico das espécies incluídas na análise. Os resultados indicaram que várias áreas da região Neotropical são adequadas para a ocorrência de M. tuberculata nos cenários atuais. Além disso, as áreas adequadas para a sua ocorrência serão provavelmente alargadas em ambos os cenários futuros. Para as espécies nativas, houve diferenças significativas em relação às áreas de aptidão, com uma redução para algumas espécies. Testes de similaridade de nicho indicaram sobreposição significativa apenas entre M. tuberculata e o planorbídeo Biomphalaria straminea (Dunker, 1848). Verificamos que a expansão de M. tuberculata pode ter consequências negativas, incluindo a redução de espécies nativas de gastrópodes e a disseminação de trematódeos de importância médica e veterinária que este molusco pode transmitir.

Revisión histórica, distribución potencial y estado de conservación de la rata endémica de México Xenomys nelsoni (Rodentia: Cricetidae) / Historical review, potential distribution, and conservation of the Mexican endemic rat Xenomys nelsoni (Rodentia: Cricetidae)

Resumen Introducción: La Rata de Magdalena, Xenomys nelsoni, es un roedor endémico de México, de distribución restringida a las selvas bajas caducifolias densas, en una pequeña región de la costa del Pacífico mexicano. Es una especie poco conocida, catalogada como "En Peligro" de acuerdo con la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (IUCN). Este desconocimiento unido a la alta tasa de deforestación de su hábitat hace que su conservación sea prioritaria. Objetivo: Realizar un recuento histórico de los registros depositados en las colecciones científicas, generar mapas de distribución potencial y analizar el estado de conservación de la especie. Método: Los datos de ocurrencia de las especies se obtuvieron de la literatura y bases de datos digitales y se analizaron por décadas. Se utilizaron los programas GARP y MaxEnt para generar los modelos de nicho ecológico. La importancia de las variables en el modelo se estimó mediante un análisis Jackknife. Resultados: A lo largo de 129 años 19 recolectores registraron 69 ejemplares, de los cuales 65 están depositados en siete colecciones internacionales y una nacional. Aunque la especie sólo se ha recolectado en Jalisco y Colima, la distribución potencial de X. nelsoni incluye también el estado de Michoacán. De esta área estimada, sólo el 1.5 % se encuentra dentro de un Área Natural Protegida. Conclusiones: Los resultados de la distribución potencial podrían ser utilizados para verificar la presencia de la especie en lugares donde no ha sido recolectada como el norte de la Reserva de la Biosfera Chamela-Cuixmala y en algunas zonas de la provincia fisiográfica Costas del Sur en el estado de Michoacán. Es necesario incrementar los muestreos en regiones poco estudiadas predichas por el modelo y aumentar el área de protección.

Abstract Introduction: The Magdalena Rat, Xenomys nelsoni, is a rodent endemic to Mexico, whose distribution is restricted to dense tropical dry forests in a small region on the Pacific coast of Mexico. It is a poorly known species categorized as "Endangered" by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). This lack of knowledge and the high rates of deforestation of its habitat makes its conservation a priority. Objective: To summarize the historical records deposited in scientific collections, to create potential distribution maps, and to analyze the conservation status of the species. Methods: We obtained species occurrence data from literature and digital databases, analyzing them by the decade. We used GARP and MaxEnt software to generate the ecological niche models. The importance of the variables in the model was estimated using the Jackknife technique. Results: Over 129 years, 19 collectors registered 69 specimens, of which 65 are deposited in one national and seven international collections. Although the species has only been collected in Jalisco and Colima, the potential distribution for X. nelsoni also includes the state of Michoacán. Of this estimated area, only 1.5 % is in a Protected Natural Area. Conclusions: The results of the potential distribution could be used to verify the presence of the species in places where it has not been collected, such as the northern part of the Chamela-Cuixmala Biosphere Reserve and in some areas of the physiographic province Costas del Sur in the state of Michoacán. It is needed to increase samplings in the least studied regions predicted by the model and expand the area of protection.

Climate change should drive mammal defaunation in tropical dry forests.

Human-induced climate change has intensified negative impacts on socioeconomic factors, the environment, and biodiversity, including changes in rainfall patterns and an increase in global average temperatures. Drylands are particularly at risk, with projections suggesting they will become hotter, drier, and less suitable for a significant portion of their species, potentially leading to mammal defaunation. We use ecological niche modelling and community ecology biodiversity metrics to examine potential geographical range shifts of non-volant mammal species in the largest Neotropical dryland, the Caatinga, and evaluate impacts of climate change on mammal assemblages. According to projections, 85% of the mammal species will lose suitable habitats, with one quarter of species projected to completely lose suitable habitats by 2060. This will result in a decrease in species richness for more than 90% of assemblages and an increase in compositional similarity to nearby assemblages (i.e., reduction in spatial beta diversity) for 70% of the assemblages. Small-sized mammals will be the most impacted and lose most of their suitable habitats, especially in highlands. The scenario is even worse in the eastern half of Caatinga where habitat destruction already prevails, compounding the threats faced by species there. While species-specific responses can vary with respect to dispersal, behavior, and energy requirements, our findings indicate that climate change can drive mammal assemblages to biotic homogenization and species loss, with drastic changes in assemblage trophic structure. For successful long-term socioenvironmental policy and conservation planning, it is critical that findings from biodiversity forecasts are considered.

Nuclear and chloroplast DNA phylogeography reveals high genetic diversity and postglacial range expansion in Quercus mexicana.

PREMISE: Phylogeographical studies are fundamental for understanding factors that influence the spatial distribution of genetic lineages within species. Population expansions and contractions, distribution shifts, and climate changes are among the most important factors shaping the genetic compositions of populations. METHODS: We investigated the phylogeography of an endemic oak, Quercus mexicana (Fagaceae), which has a restricted distribution in northeastern Mexico along the Sierra Madre Oriental and adjacent areas. Nuclear and chloroplast DNA microsatellite markers were used to describe the genetic diversity and structure of 39 populations of Q. mexicana along its entire distribution area. We tested whether population expansion or contraction events influenced the genetic diversity and structure of the species. We also modeled the historical distributional range of Q. mexicana (for the Mid Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum, and the Last Interglacial) to estimate the extent to which climate fluctuations have impacted the distribution of this oak species. RESULTS: Our results revealed high genetic diversity and low genetic structure in Q. mexicana populations. Ecological niche models suggested historical fluctuations in the distributional range of Q. mexicana. Historical range changes, gene flow, and physical barriers seem to have played an important role in shaping the phylogeographic structure of Q. mexicana. CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that the genetic structure of Q. mexicana may have been the result of responses of oak trees not only to heterogeneous environments present in the Sierra Madre Oriental and adjacent areas, but also to elevational and latitudinal shifts in response to climate changes in the past.

Impacts of climate change and habitat loss on the distribution of the endangered crested capuchin monkey (Sapajus robustus).

The crested capuchin monkey (Sapajus robustus) is endemic to the Atlantic Forest and its transition areas within Cerrado in Brazil. The species is currently threatened by habitat loss and has been classified as endangered by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species since 2015. We used ecological niche models built with MaxEnt to predict the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of this species. The models were projected onto the reference climate, considering six climate scenarios (three Global Climate Models and two Representative Concentration Pathways) from IPCC for 2050 and 2070. We showed that while the amount of suitable area is expected to change little across the species' range in most evaluated climate scenarios, climatic conditions may significantly deteriorate by 2070 in the pessimistic scenario, especially in currently warmer and dryer areas to the west. As seen on other capuchin monkeys, the potential use of tools by crested capuchins may increase the chances of the species adaptation to novel harsher environmental conditions. The major negative impacts across the species range also include habitat loss and fragmentation so that the conservation of the species relies on the protection of the forest remnants in the center of its distribution, which can harbor populations of the species in current and future climate scenarios.