Need estimates of psychiatric beds: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

This study aimed to review and synthesize the need estimates for psychiatric beds, explore how they changed over time and compare them against the prevalence of actually existing beds. We searched PubMed, Embase classic and Embase, PsycINFO and PsycIndex, Open Grey, Google Scholar, Global Health EBSCO and Proquest Dissertations, from inception to September 13, 2022. Publications providing estimates for the required number of psychiatric inpatient beds were included. Need estimates, length of stay, and year of the estimate were extracted. Need estimates were synthesized using medians and interquartile ranges (IQRs). We also computed prevalence ratios of the need estimates and the existing bed capacities at the same time and place. Sixty-five publications with 98 estimates were identified. Estimates for bed needs were trending lower until 2000, after which they stabilized. The twenty-six most recent estimates after 2000 were submitted to data synthesis (n = 15 for beds with unspecified length of stay, n = 7 for short-stay, and n = 4 for long-stay beds). Median estimates per 100 000 population were 47 (IQR: 39 to 50) beds with unspecified length of stay, 28 (IQR: 23 to 31) beds for short-stay, and 10 (IQR: 8 to 11) for long-stay beds. The median prevalence ratio of need estimates and the actual bed prevalence was 1.8 (IQR: 1.3 to 2.3) from 2000 onwards. Historically, the need estimates for psychiatric beds have decreased until about 2000. In the past two decades, they were stable over time and consistently higher than the actual bed numbers provided.

Social cartography and satellite-derived building coverage for post-census population estimates in difficult-to-access regions of Colombia.

Effective government services rely on accurate population numbers to allocate resources. In Colombia and globally, census enumeration is challenging in remote regions and where armed conflict is occurring. During census preparations, the Colombian National Administrative Department of Statistics conducted social cartography workshops, where community representatives estimated numbers of dwellings and people throughout their regions. We repurposed this information, combining it with remotely sensed buildings data and other geospatial data. To estimate building counts and population sizes, we developed hierarchical Bayesian models, trained using nearby full-coverage census enumerations and assessed using 10-fold cross-validation. We compared models to assess the relative contributions of community knowledge, remotely sensed buildings, and their combination to model fit. The Community model was unbiased but imprecise; the Satellite model was more precise but biased; and the Combination model was best for overall accuracy. Results reaffirmed the power of remotely sensed buildings data for population estimation and highlighted the value of incorporating local knowledge.

Identification of high seed oil yield and high oleic acid content in Brazilian germplasm of winter squash (Cucurbita moschata D.).

Cucurbita moschata D. seed oil contains approximately 75% unsaturated fatty acids, with high levels of monounsaturated fatty acids and antioxidant compounds such as vitamin E and carotenoids, constituting a promising food in nutritional terms. In addition, the Brazilian germplasm of C. moschata exhibits remarkable variability, representing an important source for the genetic breeding of this vegetable and other cucurbits. The present study evaluated the productivity and profile of the seed oil of 91C. moschata accessions from different regions of Brazil maintained in the Vegetable Germplasm Bank of the Federal University of Viçosa (BGH-UFV). A field experiment was conducted between January and July 2016. The accessions showed high genetic variability in terms of characteristics related to seed oil productivity (SOP), such as the weight of seeds per fruit and productivity of seeds, providing predicted selection gains of 29.39 g and 0.26 t ha-1, respectively. Based on the phenotypic and genotypic correlations, a greater SOP can be achieved while maintaining a high oleic acid concentration and low linoleic acid concentration, providing oil of better nutritional and chemical quality. In the variability analysis, the accessions were clustered into five groups, which had different averages for SOP and fatty acid concentration of seed oil, an approach that will guide the use of appropriate germplasm in programs aimed at genetic breeding for SOP and seed oil profile. Per se analysis identified BGH-4610, BGH-5485A, BGH-6590, BGH-5556A, BGH-5472A, and BGH-5544A as the most promising accessions in terms of SOP, with an average (µ + g) of approximately 0.20 t ha-1. The most promising accessions for a higher oleic acid concentration of seed oil were BGH-5456A, BGH-3333A, BGH-5361A, BGH-5472A, BGH-5544A, BGH-5453A, and BGH-1749, with an average (µ + g) of approximately 30%, almost all of which were also the most promising in terms of a lower linoleic acid concentration of the seed oil, with an average (µ + g) of approximately 45%. Part of the C. moschata accessions evaluated in the present study can serve as a promising resource in genetic breeding programs for SOP and fatty acid profile, aiming at the production of oil with better nutritional and physicochemical quality.

Agreement Between Alberta Infant Motor Scale Assessment and Maternal Perception of Motor Development in Full-Term Infants.

OBJECTIVES: To verify the agreement between the Alberta Infant Motor Scale assessment and maternal perception of the motor development in full-term infants. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study involving 161 infants and mothers. Children were assessed with the Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS) for motor developmental classification. Mothers completed questionnaires aiming to identify maternal profiles and impressions about their children's development. The kappa test was used to analyze the concordance between AIMS and mother perceptions. RESULTS: A total of 83.2% of the sample was classified as typically developing and 16.8% as suspected or delayed development. The maternal impression indicates that 77% of infants are developing typically, 19.9% perceived their infants' development as advanced, and 3.1% delayed development. There was low agreement between the mothers' perceptions and AIMS classifications (kappa = 0.153). CONCLUSIONS: Maternal perception of their infant's development was unsatisfactory for evaluation of motor development because their perceptions did not agree with the findings of the AIMS.

A Review and Analysis of the National Dog Population Management Program in Chile.

Free-roaming dogs are a worldwide problem, with Chile having some of the highest human-to-dog ratios in the world. In 2017, Law 21.020 was promulgated and the federal government developed a national responsible pet ownership program. The objectives of this article are to describe and discuss the dog-related components of the program, to design a tool for determining human-to-dog ratios in Chile, and to make recommendations to managers to improve the program outcomes. The overarching goal of the program was to mitigate the conflict between humans and dogs, but many of the interventions were animal-focused and the indicators did not consider the perception of the Chilean public. Using human density data and known dog populations, we found that as the human density increased, there were fewer dogs per person. Veterinary services and sterilizations were the mainstay of the program and were offered for free to citizens. Education was offered to all ages through public events, as well as municipality and organization activities. The identification of dogs was obligatory for dog owners. Enforcement was not included in the program. The recommendations are to conduct preintervention baseline data collections and to tailor interventions and indicators appropriately; to use dog population size estimates determined at the local level rather than a country-wide estimate; to replace free veterinary services with low-cost sterilization campaigns; to create sustainable plans for education; and to create enforcement teams in communities.

Understanding the ramifications of quantitative ordinal scales on accuracy of estimates of disease severity and data analysis in plant pathology.

The severity of plant diseases, traditionally defined as the proportion of the plant tissue exhibiting symptoms, is a key quantitative variable to know for many diseases but is prone to error. Plant pathologists face many situations in which the measurement by nearest percent estimates (NPEs) of disease severity is time-consuming or impractical. Moreover, rater NPEs of disease severity are notoriously variable. Therefore, NPEs of disease may be of questionable value if severity cannot be determined accurately and reliably. In such situations, researchers have often used a quantitative ordinal scale of measurement-often alleging the time saved, and the ease with which the scale can be learned. Because quantitative ordinal disease scales lack the resolution of the 0 to 100% scale, they are inherently less accurate. We contend that scale design and structure have ramifications for the resulting analysis of data from the ordinal scale data. To minimize inaccuracy and ensure that there is equivalent statistical power when using quantitative ordinal scale data, design of the scales can be optimized for use in the discipline of plant pathology. In this review, we focus on the nature of quantitative ordinal scales used in plant disease assessment. Subsequently, their application and effects will be discussed. Finally, we will review how to optimize quantitative ordinal scales design to allow sufficient accuracy of estimation while maximizing power for hypothesis testing.

Burden of syphilis in Brazil and federated units, 1990-2016: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

ABSTRACT Background: Syphilis is a chronic infectious disease that has created challenging situations for humanity for centuries. Transmission can occur sexually or vertically, with great repercussions on populations, particularly among women and children. The present study presents information on the main burden imposed by syphilis generated by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 for Brazil and its 27 federated units. Methods: We described the metrics of incidence, deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), standardized by age and per 100,000 inhabitants, from 1990 to 2019, and we compared the disease burden between the years 1990 and 2019. Results: In Brazil, the disease burden increased between 2005 and 2019 for all metrics. Although a higher incidence of syphilis was found among women in 2019, DALYs [YLLs (males: 15.9%; females: 21.8%), YLDs (males: 25.0%; females: 50.0%), and DALYs (males: 16.2%; females: 22.4%)] were higher among men. In 2019, the highest DALY rate per 100,000 inhabitants was observed in individuals aged above 50 years. The State of Maranhão presented the highest values of DALYs {1990: 165.2 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 96.2-264.4]; 2005: 43.8 [95% UI 30.3-62.4]; 2019: 29.1 [95% UI 19.8-41.1]} per 100,000 inhabitants in the three years analyzed. Conclusions: The burden of syphilis has increased in recent years. Men presented higher DALYs, although the incidence of the disease was higher in women. Syphilis affects a large number of people across all age groups, causing different degrees of disability and premature death (DALYs).

Estimativa da necessidade de radioterapia externa no Brasil baseada em critérios epidemiológicos / Optimal utilization of radiotherapy in Brazil according to local epidemiological data

Esta tese teve como objetivo estimar a necessidade de radioterapia no Brasil a partir de dados epidemiológicos locais. O estudo foi desenvolvido em duas etapas que consistiram na estimativa de casos incidentes e, posteriormente, na classificação dos casos registrados nos Registros Hospitalares de Câncer (RHC) para integrar as árvores de decisão para o emprego do tratamento radioterápico conforme evidências e diretrizes clínicas de tratamento. As estimativas de casos incidentes em 2018 foram calculadas a partir de dados de Registros de Câncer de Base Populacional (RCBP) selecionados de acordo com critérios internacionais de qualidade e de dados corrigidos para causas mal definidas e não específicas na causa básica dos óbitos registrados no Sistema de Informação de Mortalidade (SIM) no período de 2007 a 2016. Foram calculadas razões de incidência/mortalidade (I/M) anuais para cada topografia, estratificadas por sexo e faixa etária nos RCBP selecionados. As razões I/M para 2018 foram estimadas para as regiões brasileiras a partir de modelos multiníveis de Poisson a partir de uma abordagem longitudinal com efeito aleatório no RCBP. As razões estimadas foram aplicadas ao número de óbitos ocorridos em 2018 por tipo de câncer, também corrigido para causas mal definidas e não específicas na causa básica, registrados no SIM. As distribuições dos dados por estadiamento obtidas a partir do RHC foram combinadas às frequências relativas por tipo de câncer incidente e aos dados das árvores de decisão do projeto Collaboration for Cancer Outcomes Research and Evaluation (CCORE) para uso da radioterapia. As estimativas de necessidade foram calculadas por tipo de câncer e para o conjunto das neoplasias, exceto pele não melanoma. Foram realizadas análises de sensibilidade para avaliar a relevância dos dados locais na estimativa de necessidade. O número necessário de equipamentos de radioterapia para atender os casos que se beneficiariam do tratamento em algum momento no curso da doença foi calculado e a análise da cobertura da oferta foi realizada. Para o Brasil, em 2018, foram estimados 506.462 casos novos de câncer, exceto pele não melanoma. Diferenças regionais nas razões I/M e no padrão de casos incidentes foram identificadas, podendo estar relacionadas a fatores socioeconômicos. Foi estimado que 53,55% dos casos novos no Brasil teriam necessidade de tratamento radioterápico. A maior necessidade de radioterapia foi identificada para o Norte: 55,32%, com um peso expressivo do câncer do colo do útero, tanto pela incidência como pelo número de casos em estágios avançados, para os quais a radioterapia é considerada tratamento de escolha. Para atender aos casos com necessidade de radioterapia no Brasil, foram estimados 497 equipamentos de radioterapia externa, sendo o déficit estimado em 114 para 2018 no país. Os maiores déficits foram observados para o Norte e para a rede assistencial do SUS. Em conclusão, o emprego de parâmetros internacionais não se mostrou adequado para a realidade brasileira. O planejamento de recursos para a assistência oncológica no Brasil demanda estimativas confiáveis baseadas nas necessidades locais para que as inequidades não sejam ainda mais agravadas.

This thesis aimed to estimate the need for radiotherapy in Brazil based on local epidemiological data. The study was developed in two stages which consisted of estimating incident cases and, later, classifying the cases registered in the Hospital Cancer Registries (RHC) to integrate decision trees for the use of radiotherapy according to evidence and clinical treatment guidelines. The estimates of incident cases in 2018 were calculated based on data from Population-Based Cancer Registries (RCBP) selected according to international quality criteria and from data corrected for ill-defined and non-specific causes in the underlying cause of deaths recorded in the System of Mortality Information (SIM) from 2007 to 2016. Annual incidence/mortality ratios (I/M) were calculated for each topography, stratified by sex and age group in the selected RCBP. The I/M ratios for 2018 were estimated for Brazilian regions using multilevel Poisson models from a longitudinal approach with random effect on the RCBP. The estimated reasons were applied to the number of deaths that occurred in 2018 by type of cancer, also corrected for ill-defined and non-specific causes in the underlying cause, recorded in the SIM. The staging data distributions obtained from the RHC were combined with the relative frequencies by type of incident cancer and data from the Collaboration for Cancer Outcomes Research and Evaluation (CCORE) project decision trees for radiotherapy use. Optimal utilization rates were estimated by type of cancer and for the set of tumors, except for non-melanoma skin. Sensitivity analyzes were performed to assess the relevance of local data in estimating the need. The number of radiotherapy equipment needed to attend to cases that would benefit from treatment at some point in the course of the disease was calculated and the analysis of the offer coverage was performed. For Brazil, in 2018, 506,462 new cases of cancer were estimated, except for non-melanoma skin. Regional differences in I/M ratios and in the pattern of incident cases were identified, which may be related to socioeconomic factors. It was estimated that 53.55% of new cases in Brazil would need radiotherapy. The greatest need for radiotherapy was identified for the North: 55.32%, with an expressive weight of cervical cancer, both in terms of incidence and the number of cases in advanced stages, for which radiotherapy is considered the treatment of choice. To meet the need for radiotherapy in Brazil, 497 external radiotherapy equipment were estimated, with an estimated deficit of 114 for 2018 in the country. The greatest deficits were observed for the North and for the SUS care network. In conclusion, the use of international parameters was not adequate for the Brazilian reality. The planning of resources for cancer care in Brazil requires reliable estimates based on local needs so that inequities are not further aggravated.

Fertility trends during successive novel infectious disease outbreaks: Zika and COVID-19 in Brazil / Tendências de fecundidade durante sucessivas epidemias de doenças infecciosas novas: Zika e COVID-19 no Brasil / Tendencias de fecundidad durante los sucesivos brotes de nuevas enfermedades infecciosas: Zika y COVID-19 en Brasil

This study aims to estimate fertility trends in Brazil in the 2010s and early 2020s during a period of back-to-back novel infectious disease outbreaks - Zika virus and COVID-19. We use Brazilian Ministry of Health and Association of Civil Registrar data from 2011-2021 to measure general fertility rates at the national and state levels. We also used seasonal ARIMA model to forecast fertility rates by month and state in 2021 and compared these forecasts with observed fertility rates. We find that fertility rates were steady over 2011-2015 with no statistically significant variation, followed by a sharp decline during the Zika outbreak in 2016 followed by a return to pre-Zika levels after the end of the epidemic. Furthermore, to evaluate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, we make comparisons with observed and forecast rates from 2020-2021, showing that declines were generally larger for observed than for forecast rates, yet statistically insignificant. We argue that the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 might lead to further declines, as women might have not had enough time to adjust rebound from either the effects of the Zika epidemic. We also discuss the importance of timely availability of live births data during a public health crisis with immediate consequences for fertility rates.

O objetivo desta contribuição de dados é estimar as tendências de fecundidade no Brasil nos anos 2010 e início dos anos 2020 durante epidemias consecutivas de doenças infecciosas novas, ou seja, Zika vírus e COVID-19. Utilizamos dados do Ministério da Saúde e do Registro Civil Nacional de 2011-2021 para calcular as taxas mensais de fecundidade nos níveis nacional e estadual. Também utilizamos o modelo ARIMA sazonal para prever taxas de fecundidade por mês e por estado em 2021, e comparamos essas previsões com as taxas de fecundidade observadas. Encontramos que as taxas de fecundidade eram estáveis entre 2011 e 2015, sem variação significativa, seguido por um declínio abrupto durante o surto de Zika em 2016, e seguido por sua vez por um retorno aos níveis pré-Zika depois do fim da epidemia. Além disso, para avaliar o efeito da pandemia de COVID-19, comparamos as taxas observadas e previstas de 2020-2021, mostrando que as quedas geralmente eram maiores nas taxas observadas do que nas previstas, porém sem significância estatística. Argumentamos que o recrudescimento da pandemia de COVID-19 em 2021 poderá levar a mais quedas nas taxas, na medida em que as mulheres não tenham tido tempo suficiente para reagir e se ajustarem aos efeitos da epidemia de Zika. Também discutimos a importância da disponibilidade oportuna de dados sobre nascidos vivos durante uma crise de saúde pública com consequências imediatas para as taxas de fecundidade.

El objetivo de esta aportación de datos es estimar las tendencias de fecundidad en Brasil en la década de 2010 y principios de 2020, durante el período de brotes consecutivos de nuevas enfermedades infecciosas -ZIKV y COVID-19. Se usaron datos procedentes del Ministerio de Salud y del Registro Civil Nacional (ARPEN) desde 2011-2021 para calcular mensualmente las tasas de fecundidad en nivel nacional y en el estado. Se utilizó el ARIMA estacional para pronosticar las tasas de fecundidad por mes y estado en 2021, y se compararon estas predicciones con las tasas de fecundidad observadas. Encontramos que las tasas de fecundidad se mantuvieron estables entre 2011 y 2015, sin variaciones significativas, seguido de un fuerte descenso durante el brote de Zika en 2016, para posteriormente volver a los niveles anteriores al Zika tras el fin de la epidemia. Asimismo, con el fin de evaluar el efecto de la pandemia de COVID-19, hicimos comparaciones con lo observado y la previsión de tasas desde 2020-2021, que muestran que los descensos fueron en general mayores para los índices observados que para los previstos, aunque insignificantes desde el punto de vista estadístico. Sostenemos que el resurgimiento de la pandemia de COVID-19 en 2021 podría provocar nuevos descensos, ya que las mujeres podrían no haber tenido suficiente tiempo para adaptarse a los efectos de la epidemia de Zika. También se discute la importancia de disponer a tiempo de los datos de los nacidos vivos durante una crisis de salud pública con consecuencias inmediatas para las tasas de fecundidad.

Prediction of dry matter intake by meat sheep on tropical pastures.

This study was undertaken to determine whether equations for prediction of dry matter intake (DMI) by meat sheep are valid for animals raised solely on tropical pastures and to propose a new equation to predict the DMI of sheep raised on tropical pastures. The DMI prediction from published equations was evaluated by regressing the predicted and observed values, using the F test, for the identity of the parameters (ß0 = 0 and ß1 = 1) of the regression of predicted on observed data. If the null hypothesis is not rejected, the tested equation accurately estimates DMI. The proposed equation was evaluated in the same way as the published equations. The animal performance and pasture structure and chemical composition data used originated from an experiment conducted with 32 Santa Inês sheep raised on tropical pastures. In the analysis of model adequacy, the null hypothesis was rejected (P < 0.001) and the equations generated predictions that differ (ß0 = 0 and ß1 = 1) from the DMI observed under practical feeding conditions for grazing sheep. The proposed equation, DMI (%LW) = 7.16545 (± 0.76522) - 0.21799 (± 0.01812) * LW + 0.00273 (± 0.00034) * LW2-0.00688 (± 0.00299) * GT + 0.000007 (± 0.000002) * GT2 + 0.00271 (± 0.00108) * GHA, where LW is live weight (kg), GT is grazing time (min/day), and GHA is green herbage allowance (kg DM/100 kg LW), should be used to more accurately predict DMI by grazing sheep.

Some New Hermite-Hadamard and Related Inequalities for Convex Functions via (p,q)-Integral.

In this investigation, for convex functions, some new (p,q)-Hermite-Hadamard-type inequalities using the notions of (p,q)π2 derivative and (p,q)π2 integral are obtained. Furthermore, for (p,q)π2-differentiable convex functions, some new (p,q) estimates for midpoint and trapezoidal-type inequalities using the notions of (p,q)π2 integral are offered. It is also shown that the newly proved results for p=1 and q→1- can be converted into some existing results. Finally, we discuss how the special means can be used to address newly discovered inequalities.

Omega-3 Fatty Acids in Erythrocyte Membranes as Predictors of Lower Cardiovascular Risk in Adults without Previous Cardiovascular Events.

Background: This study investigated the association of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 PUFA) within erythrocyte membranes and cardiovascular risk assessed by three different estimates. Methods: Inclusion criteria were individuals of both sexes, 30 to 74 years, with at least one cardiovascular risk factor, and no previous cardiovascular events (n = 356). Exclusion criteria were individuals with acute or chronic severe diseases, infectious diseases, pregnant, and/or lactating women. Plasma biomarkers (lipids, glucose, and C-reactive protein) were analyzed, and nineteen erythrocyte membrane fatty acids (FA) were identified. The cardiovascular risk was estimated by Framingham (FRS), Reynolds (RRS), and ACC/AHA-2013 Risk Scores. Three patterns of FA were identified (Factor 1, poor in n-3 PUFA), (Factor 2, poor in PUFA), and (Factor 3, rich in n-3 PUFA). Results: Total cholesterol was inversely correlated with erythrocyte membranes C18:3 n-3 (r = -0.155; p = 0.004), C22:6 n-3 (r = -0.112; p = 0.041), and total n-3 (r = -0.211; p < 0.001). Total n-3 PUFA was associated with lower cardiovascular risk by FRS (OR = 0.811; 95% CI= 0.675-0.976). Regarding RRS, Factor 3 was associated with 25.3% lower odds to have moderate and high cardiovascular risk (OR = 0.747; 95% CI = 0.589-0.948). The ACC/AHA-2013 risk score was not associated with isolated and pooled FA. Conclusions:n-3 PUFA in erythrocyte membranes are independent predictors of low-risk classification estimated by FRS and RRS, which could be explained by cholesterol-lowering effects of n-3 PUFA.

ZORA all-electron double zeta basis sets for the elements from H to Xe: application in atomic and molecular property calculations.

From the segmented all-electron basis set of double zeta valence quality plus polarization functions (DZP) for the elements from H to Xe, the zeroth-order regular approximation (ZORA) is used to generate a DZP-ZORA basis set, i.e., the contraction coefficients of the DZP set are re-optimized using the minimum ZORA energy criterion. To properly describe electrons distant from the nuclei, a diffuse function is added to each atomic symmetry (s, p, d, and f). The later basis set is designated as DZP-ZORA augmented. To test the effectiveness of the basis sets developed in this work, calculations of ionization energies and mean dipole polarizabilities of some elements are performed using the ZORA-CCSD(T) method. At the same level of theory, bond lengths, dissociation energies, and harmonic vibrational frequencies of some diatoms are also reported. Comparison with experimental data and recommended values available in the literature is made. Except for polarizability, scalar relativistic effects are estimated for the other properties. The performances of the ZORA and second-order Douglas-Kroll-Hess Hamiltonians are evaluated.

Extended divergence estimates and species descriptions of new craspedid choanoflagellates from the Atacama Desert, Northern Chile.

In contrast to previous perspectives, hypersaline environments have been proven to harbour a variety of potentially highly adapted microorganisms, in particular unicellular eukaryotes. The isolated, hypersaline waterbodies in the Atacama Desert, Northern Chile are exposed to high UV radiation and deposition of toxic heavy metals, making them of great interest regarding studies on speciation and evolutionary processes. In the past two years, among a variety of other protist species, five new species of heterotrophic choanoflagellates were described and analysed from this area, showing an adaptation to a broad range of salinities. Morphological data alone does not allow for species delineation within craspedid species, additional molecular data is essential for modern taxonomy. In addition, molecular clock analyses pointed towards a strong selection force of the extreme environmental conditions. Within this study, we describe three additional craspedid choanoflagellate species, isolated from different aquatic environments. Phylogenetic analyses show two distinct clades of choanoflagellates from the Atacama, suggesting two independent invasions of at least two ancestral marine species, and, as indicated by our new data, a possible dispersal by Andean aquifers. The extended molecular clock analysis based on transcriptomic data of choanoflagellate strains from the Salar de Llamará, a hypersaline basin within the Central Depression of the Atacama Desert, reflects colonisation and divergence events which correspond to geological data of the paleohydrology.

Robust Inferential Techniques Applied to the Analysis of the Tropospheric Ozone Concentration in an Urban Area.

This paper analyzes 12 years of tropospheric ozone (O3) concentration measurements using robust techniques. The measurements were taken at an air quality monitoring station called Belisario, which is in Quito, Ecuador; the data collection time period was 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2019, and the measurements were carried out using photometric O3 analyzers. Here, the measurement results were used to build variables that represented hours, days, months, and years, and were then classified and categorized. The index of air quality (IAQ) of the city was used to make the classifications, and robust and nonrobust confidence intervals were used to make the categorizations. Furthermore, robust analysis methods were compared with classical methods, nonparametric methods, and bootstrap-based methods. The results showed that the analysis using robust methods is better than the analysis using nonrobust methods, which are not immune to the influence of extreme observations. Using all of the aforementioned methods, confidence intervals were used to both establish and quantify differences between categories of the groups of variables under study. In addition, the central tendency and variability of the O3 concentration at Belisario station were exhaustively analyzed, concluding that said concentration was stable for years, highly variable for months and hours, and slightly changing between the days of the week. Additionally, according to the criteria established by the IAQ, it was shown that in Quito, the O3 concentration levels during the study period were not harmful to human health.

SARS-CoV-2 Infections in the World: An Estimation of the Infected Population and a Measure of How Higher Detection Rates Save Lives.

This paper provides an estimation of the accumulated detection rates and the accumulated number of infected individuals by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Worldwide, on July 20, it has been estimated above 160 million individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2. Moreover, it is found that only about 1 out of 11 infected individuals are detected. In an information context in which population-based seroepidemiological studies are not frequently available, this study shows a parsimonious alternative to provide estimates of the number of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals. By comparing our estimates with those provided by the population-based seroepidemiological ENE-COVID study in Spain, we confirm the utility of our approach. Then, using a cross-country regression, we investigated if differences in detection rates are associated with differences in the cumulative number of deaths. The hypothesis investigated in this study is that higher levels of detection of SARS-CoV-2 infections can reduce the risk exposure of the susceptible population with a relatively higher risk of death. Our results show that, on average, detecting 5 instead of 35 percent of the infections is associated with multiplying the number of deaths by a factor of about 6. Using this result, we estimated that 120 days after the pandemic outbreak, if the US would have tested with the same intensity as South Korea, about 85,000 out of their 126,000 reported deaths could have been avoided.

Particulate matter exposure, dietary inflammatory index and preterm birth in Mexico city, Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Particulate matter ≤10 µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) and diet quality are risk factors for systemic inflammation, which is associated with preterm birth (PTB). PM10 and a pro-inflammatory diet (assessed by the Dietary Inflammatory Index [DII®]) have been individually evaluated as causes of PTB and differences by offspring sex have been reported for the DII. However, additional studies are needed to evaluate joint effects of these associations to inform intervention efforts. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the independent and joint effects of PM10 and energy-adjusted DII (E-DII) on PTB risks. METHODS: PM10 estimates were generated from daily citywide averages for 1216 pregnant women from three subcohorts of the Early Life Exposures in Mexico to Environmental Toxicants study using data from the Mexico City Outdoor Air Monitoring Network. Among a subset of participants (N = 620), E-DII scores were calculated using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Cox Proportional Hazards models were run for select periods during pregnancy and entire pregnancy averages for E-DII and PM10. We assessed for potential non-linear associations using natural splines. RESULTS: In adjusted models, PM10 exposure was associated with increased risks of PTB for a range of values (58-72 µg/m3) during the second trimester, while negative associations were seen during the second (≥74 µg/m3) and third trimesters (55-65 µg/m3). Analyses conducted using distributed lag models for periods closer to delivery (max lag = 90) did not show negative associations between PM10 exposure and preterm birth, and indeed positive significant associations were observed (estimates and figures). E-DII was not associated with PTB and there was no evidence of effect modification by infant sex. There was no evidence of interaction between PM10 and E-DII and the risk of preterm birth. DISCUSSION: Associations between PM10 and PTB in Mexico City varied over time and across levels of PM10. Our findings of negative associations in the second and third trimesters, which are contrary to the hypothesized relationship between PM10 and PTB, may be due to a number of factors, including live birth bias and the exposure period evaluated. Differences in results for the periods evaluated suggest that PM10 from shorter exposure windows may play a more proximal role in initiating preterm labor.

Comparative analysis of completeness of death registration, adult mortality and life expectancy at birth in Brazil at the subnational level.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of completeness of death registration are crucial to produce estimates of life tables and population projections and to estimate the burden of disease. They are an important step in assessing the quality of data. In the case of subnational data analysis in Brazil, it is important to consider spatial and temporal variation in the quality of mortality data. There are two main sources of data quality evaluation in Brazil, but there are few comparative studies and how they evolve over time. The aim of the paper is to compare and discuss alternative estimates of completeness of death registration, adult mortality (45q15) and life expectancy estimates produced by the National Statistics Office (IBGE), Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), and estimates presented in Queiroz et al. (2017) and Schmertmann and Gonzaga (2018), for 1980 and 2010. METHODS: We provide a descriptive and comparative analysis of aforementioned estimates from four (4) sources of estimates at subnational level (26 states and one Federal District) in Brazil from two different points in time. RESULTS: We found significant differences in estimates that affect both levels and trends of completeness of adult mortality in Brazil and states. IHME and Queiroz et al. (2017) estimates converge by 2010, but there are large differences when compared to estimates from the National Statistics Office (IBGE). Larger differences are observed for less developed states. We have showed that the quality of mortality data in Brazil has improved steadily overtime, but with large regional variations. However, we have observed that IBGE estimates show the lowest levels of completeness for the Northern of the country compared to other estimates. Choice of methods and approaches might lead to very unexpected results. CONCLUSION: We produced a detailed comparative analysis of estimates of completeness of death registration from different sources and discuss the main results and possible explanations for these differences. We have also showed that new improved methods are still needed to study adult mortality in less developed countries and at a subnational level. More comparative studies are important in order to improve quality of estimates in Brazil.

Culicidae-centric metabarcoding through targeted use of D2 ribosomal DNA primers.

A practical limitation to many metabarcoding initiatives is that sampling methods tend to collect many non-target taxa, which become "amplicon noise" that can saturate Next Generation Sequencing results and lead to both financial and resource inefficiencies. An available molecular tool that can significantly decrease these non-target amplicons and decrease the need for pre-DNA-extraction sorting of bycatch is the design of PCR primers tailored to the taxa under investigation. We assessed whether the D2 extension segment of the 28S ribosomal operon can limit this shortcoming within the context of mosquito (Culicidae) monitoring. We designed PCR primers that are fully conserved across mosquitos and exclude from amplification most other taxa likely to be collected with current sampling apparatuses. We show that, given enough sequencing depth, D2 is an effective marker for the detection of mosquito sequences within mock genomic DNA pools. As few as 3,050 quality-filtered Illumina reads were able to recover all 17 species in a bulk pool containing as little as 0.2% of constituent DNA from single taxa. We also mixed these mosquito DNA pools with high concentrations of non-Culicidae bycatch DNA and show that the component mosquito species are generally still recoverable and faithful to their original relative frequencies. Finally, we show that there is little loss of fidelity in abundance parameters when pools from degraded DNA samples were sequenced using the D2 primers.

Bivariate lifetime models in presence of cure fraction: a comparative study with many different copula functions.

In time-to-event studies it is common the presence of a fraction of individuals not expecting to experience the event of interest; these individuals who are immune to the event or cured for the disease during the study are known as long-term survivors. In addition, in many studies it is observed two lifetimes associated to the same individual, and in some cases there exists a dependence structure between them. In these situations, the usual existing lifetime distributions are not appropriate to model data sets with long-term survivors and dependent bivariate lifetimes. In this study, it is proposed a bivariate model based on a Weibull standard distribution with a dependence structure based on fifteen different copula functions. We assumed the Weibull distribution due to its wide use in survival data analysis and its greater flexibility and simplicity, but the presented methods can be adapted to other continuous survival distributions. Three examples, considering real data sets are introduced to illustrate the proposed methodology. A Bayesian approach is assumed to get the inferences for the parameters of the model where the posterior summaries of interest are obtained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation methods and the Openbugs software. For the data analysis considering different real data sets it was assumed fifteen different copula models from which is was possible to find models with satisfactory fit for the bivariate lifetimes in presence of long-term survivors.