Econometric Analysis of China-ECOWAS agricultural products trade / Análise econométrica do comércio de produtos agrícolas China-CEDEAO

ABSTRACT: Agriculture trade remains the economic fulcrum of most African countries as the continent continues to host the largest percent of arable land. This research analyzed the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and China's agricultural products trade determinants based on 19 years (2000-2018) panel dataset of West African countries aggregate agricultural products exports ($) and macroeconomic variables; GDP, population, arable land, language investment, and trade association(WTO)) as predictors. The PPML estimation method was employed due to its prediction accuracy, the size of the data, and potential hetroskadacity issues. With a 78.5% prediction power, the model explained the variation in ECOWAS-China agricultural trade (Exports). GDPj, lnPOPj, lnPOPi, and lnARLj, LndLj, ConfInsj, and WTOij were positive and statistically significant determinants of trade as hypothesized by existing trade literature. In addition, the China's population (lnPOPj) had a value of 0.5877, which is significant at the 5% level, indicating that a 1% increase in the Chinese population significantly increases trade in agricultural products with ECOWAS states. The coefficient of distance (Dij) is -4.4573 statistically significant at the 1% level, indicating that distance between partners impedes trade flow. There are unidentified barriers that delay the progress of trade in agricultural products between ECOWAS and China. Based on the above findings, Investments in ECOWAS arable lands demand urgent attention if significant progress in exports is expected, additionally, governments of both partners should assist Agricultural research and development to identify and rectify stifling trade barriers. Furthermore, as trade between ECOWAS and China has not yet reached its full peak, studies on export determinants of individual Agro-commodities and potentials are needed to enrich literature.

RESUMO: O comércio agrícola continua sendo o sustentáculo econômico da maioria dos países africanos, visto que o continente continua a hospedar a maior porcentagem de terras aráveis. Este trabalho analisou os determinantes do comércio de produtos agrícolas de paises do oeste da África ECOWAS e da China com base em um conjunto de dados de painel de 19 anos (2000-2018) dos países da África Ocidental, agregando exportações de produtos agrícolas ($) e variáveis macroeconômicas (PIB, população, terras aráveis, investimento linguístico e associação comercial (OMC)) como preditores. O método de estimativa PPML foi empregado devido à sua precisão de previsão, o tamanho dos dados e possíveis problemas de heteroscedasticidade. Com um poder de previsão de 78,5%, o modelo explicou a variação do comércio agrícola Comunidade Económica dos Estados da África Ocidental (CEDEAO) -China (Exportações). GDPj, lnPOPj, lnPOPi e lnARLj, LndLj, ConfInsj e WTOij foram determinantes positivos e estatisticamente significativos do comércio, conforme hipotetizado pela literatura comercial existente. Além disso, a população chinesa (lnPOPj) teve um valor de 0,5877, o que é significativo ao nível de 5%, indicando que um aumento de 1% na população chinesa aumenta significativamente o comércio de produtos agrícolas com os estados da Comunidade Económica dos Estados da África Ocidental (CEDEAO).O coeficiente de distância (Dij) é -4,4573 estatisticamente significativo no nível de 1%, indicando que a distância entre os parceiros impede o fluxo comercial. Existem barreiras não identificadas que atrasam o progresso do comércio de produtos agrícolas entre a Comunidade Económica dos Estados da África Ocidental (CEDEAO) e a China. Com base nas conclusões acima, os investimentos em terras aráveis da Comunidade Económica dos Estados da África Ocidental (CEDEAO) exigem atenção urgente se houver progresso significativo nas exportações. Além disso, os governos de ambos os parceiros devem ajudar a pesquisa e o desenvolvimento agrícola a identificar e retificar as barreiras comerciais sufocantes. Além disso, como o comércio entre a Comunidade Económica dos Estados da África Ocidental (CEDEAO) e a China ainda não atingiu o seu pico, são necessários estudos sobre os determinantes das exportações de produtos agrícolas individuais e potenciais para enriquecer a literatura.

Econometric Analysis of China­ECOWAS agricultural products trad / Análise econométrica do comércio de produtos agrícolas China-CEDEAO

Agriculture trade remains the economic fulcrum of most African countries as the continent continues to host the largest percent of arable land. This research analyzed the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and China's agricultural products trade determinants based on 19 years (2000-2018) panel dataset of West African countries aggregate agricultural products exports ($) and macroeconomic variables; GDP, population, arable land, language investment, and trade association(WTO)) as predictors. The PPML estimation method was employed due to its prediction accuracy, the size of the data, and potential hetroskadacity issues. With a 78.5% prediction power, the model explained the variation in ECOWAS-China agricultural trade (Exports). GDPj, lnPOPj, lnPOPi, and lnARLj, LndLj, ConfInsj, and WTOij were positive and statistically significant determinants of trade as hypothesized by existing trade literature. In addition, the China's population (lnPOPj) had a value of 0.5877, which is significant at the 5% level, indicating that a 1% increase in the Chinese population significantly increases trade in agricultural products with ECOWAS states. The coefficient of distance (Dij) is -4.4573 statistically significant at the 1% level, indicating that distance between partners impedes trade flow. There are unidentified barriers that delay the progress of trade in agricultural products between ECOWAS and China. Based on the above findings, Investments in ECOWAS arable lands demand urgent attention if significant progress in exports is expected, additionally, governments of both partners should assist Agricultural research and development to identify and rectify stifling trade barriers. Furthermore, as trade between ECOWAS and China has not yet reached its full peak, studies on export determinants of individual Agro-commodities and potentials are needed to enrich literature.

O comércio agrícola continua sendo o sustentáculo econômico da maioria dos países africanos, visto que o continente continua a hospedar a maior porcentagem de terras aráveis. Este trabalho analisou os determinantes do comércio de produtos agrícolas de paises do oeste da África ECOWAS e da China com base em um conjunto de dados de painel de 19 anos (2000-2018) dos países da África Ocidental, agregando exportações de produtos agrícolas ($) e variáveis macroeconômicas (PIB, população, terras aráveis, investimento linguístico e associação comercial (OMC)) como preditores. O método de estimativa PPML foi empregado devido à sua precisão de previsão, o tamanho dos dados e possíveis problemas de heteroscedasticidade. Com um poder de previsão de 78,5%, o modelo explicou a variação do comércio agrícola Comunidade Económica dos Estados da África Ocidental (CEDEAO) -China (Exportações). GDPj, lnPOPj, lnPOPi e lnARLj, LndLj, ConfInsj e WTOij foram determinantes positivos e estatisticamente significativos do comércio, conforme hipotetizado pela literatura comercial existente. Além disso, a população chinesa (lnPOPj) teve um valor de 0,5877, o que é significativo ao nível de 5%, indicando que um aumento de 1% na população chinesa aumenta significativamente o comércio de produtos agrícolas com os estados da Comunidade Económica dos Estados da África Ocidental (CEDEAO).O coeficiente de distância (Dij) é -4,4573 estatisticamente significativo no nível de 1%, indicando que a distância entre os parceiros impede o fluxo comercial. Existem barreiras não identificadas que atrasam o progresso do comércio de produtos agrícolas entre a Comunidade Económica dos Estados da África Ocidental (CEDEAO) e a China. Com base nas conclusões acima, os investimentos em terras aráveis da Comunidade Económica dos Estados da África Ocidental (CEDEAO) exigem atenção urgente se houver progresso significativo nas exportações. Além disso, os governos de ambos os parceiros devem ajudar a pesquisa e o desenvolvimento agrícola a identificar e retificar as barreiras comerciais sufocantes. Além disso, como o comércio entre a Comunidade Económica dos Estados da África Ocidental (CEDEAO) e a China ainda não atingiu o seu pico, são necessários estudos sobre os determinantes das exportações de produtos agrícolas individuais e potenciais para enriquecer a literatura.

The role of institutional quality in the international trade of a Latin American country: evidence from Colombian export performance.

This paper analyses the relevance of Colombian institutional quality in recent years in terms of the performance of its exports within a framework of trade openness. Based on the trade gravity model, we examine the effect of governance on the evolution of Colombian exports through an econometric approach that identifies, on the one hand, the influence of institutional quality, and on the other hand, the influence of the institutional distance between Colombia and its trading partners. We use a panel data set for 2005-2018, through which the export flows from Colombia to 136 of its trading partners are considered. The findings indicate that Colombian institutional quality and the institutional distance between the country and its partners are statistically significant and affect its foreign sales. Similarly, there is a prominent influence of regulatory quality and the rule of law variables in the performance of Colombian exports in relation to other variables included in the model. We conclude that the Colombian government must improve its institutional quality considerably as a fundamental step towards boosting its overseas sales, not least because the country's institutional distance from the world average is notable, which also affects its exports.

Validation of the gravity model in predicting the global spread of influenza.

The gravity model is often used in predicting the spread of influenza. We use the data of influenza A (H1N1) to check the model's performance and validation, in order to determine the scope of its application. In this article, we proposed to model the pattern of global spread of the virus via a few important socio-economic indicators. We applied the epidemic gravity model for modelling the virus spread globally through the estimation of parameters of a generalized linear model. We compiled the daily confirmed cases of influenza A (H1N1) in each country as reported to the WHO and each state in the USA, and established the model to describe the relationship between the confirmed cases and socio-economic factors such as population size, per capita gross domestic production (GDP), and the distance between the countries/states and the country where the first confirmed case was reported (i.e., Mexico). The covariates we selected for the model were all statistically significantly associated with the global spread of influenza A (H1N1). However, within the USA, the distance and GDP were not significantly associated with the number of confirmed cases. The combination of the gravity model and generalized linear model provided a quick assessment of pandemic spread globally. The gravity model is valid if the spread period is long enough for estimating the model parameters. Meanwhile, the distance between donor and recipient communities has a good gradient. Besides, the spread should be at the early stage if a single source is taking into account.