Climate change influences on the streamflow and sediment supply to the Chao Phraya River basin, Thailand.

This study investigates the effects of climate change on the sediment loads of the Ping and Wang River basins and their contribution to the sediment dynamics of the lower Chao Phraya River basin in Thailand. The various climate models under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios are employed to project sediment loads in future. The findings indicate a significant increase in river flow approximately 20% in the Ping River (PR) and 35% in the Wang River (WR) by the mid-21st century and continuing into the distant future. Consequently, this is expected to result in sediment loads up to 0.33 × 106 t/y in the PR and 0.28 × 106 t/y in the WR. This escalation is particularly notable under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which assumes higher greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, the research provides insights into the potential positive implications for the Chao Phraya Delta's coastal management. Without further damming in the Ping and Wang River basins, the anticipated rise in sediment supply could aid in mitigating the adverse effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise, which have historically caused extensive shoreline retreat in the delta region, particularly around Bangkok Metropolis. The paper concludes that proactive adaptation strategies are required to manage the expected changes in the hydrological and sediment regimes to protect vulnerable coastal zones and ensure the sustainable management of the Chao Phraya River Basin in the face of climate change.

Adaptive capacity of high- and low dyke farmers to hydrological changes in the Vietnamese Mekong delta.

This research assesses the adaptive capacity of farmers in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta's floodplains (VMD) with respect to hydrological changes. Currently, climate change and socio-economic developments induce extreme- and diminishing floods, which in turn increase farmers' vulnerability. This research assesses farmers' adaptive capacity to hydrological changes using two prevalent farming systems: high dykes featuring triple-crop rice farming and low dykes where fields are left fallow during the flood season. We examine (1) farmers' perceptions on a changing flood regime and their current vulnerabilities and (2) farmers' adaptive capacity through five sustainability capitals. Methods include a literature review and qualitative interviews with farmers. Results show that extreme floods are becoming less frequent and damaging, depending on arrival time, depth, residence time, and flow velocity. In extreme floods, farmers' adaptive capacity is generally strong, and only low dyke farmers experience damage. As for diminishing floods, which is an emerging phenomenon, the overall adaptive capacity of farmers is remarkably weaker and varies between high- and low dyke farmers. Financial capital is lower for low dyke farmers due to their double-crop rice system, and natural capital is low for both farmer groups due to a decrease in soil- and water quality, affecting yields and increasing investment costs. Farmers also struggle with an unstable rice market due to strong fluctuating prices for seeds, fertilizers, and other inputs. We conclude that both high- and low dyke farmers have to cope with new challenges, including fluctuating flood patterns and the depletion of natural resources. Increasing farmers resilience should focus on exploring better crop varieties, adjusting crop calendars, and shifting to less water-intensive crops.

Exploring the relative contribution of flood regimes and climatic factors to Carex phenology in a Yangtze River-connected floodplain wetland.

Hydrological regimes can combine with climatic factors to affect plant phenology; however, few studies have attempted to quantify their complex influences on plant phenology in floodplain wetlands. We obtained phenological information on Carex vegetation through MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data during 2001-2020, and monthly field investigation during 2011-2020. We then explored how these data were correlated with climatic factors and flood regimes in a Yangtze River-connected floodplain wetland (Dongting Lake, China). Our results showed that warmer temperature tended to advance the start of the pre-flooding growing season (SOS1), with a relative contribution of 76.1 %. Flood rising time strongly contributed to controlling the end of the pre-flooding growing season. Flood recession time and inundation duration were dominant factors determining the start of the post-flooding growing season (SOS2). Earlier flood recession time and shortened inundation duration tended to advance the SOS2. Shortened inundation duration, earlier flood recession time, and lower solar radiation tended to advance the end of the post-flooding growing season. The phenology of Carex distributed at high-elevation areas was more affected by hydrology than that of Carex distributed at low-elevation areas. Thus, climatic factors strongly affect the phenology of Carex during the pre-flooding growing season, whereas flood regimes play a dominant role in determining the phenology in the post-flooding growing season. The different responses of Carex phenology to climatic and flooding factors may provide insights for the conservation and management of floodplain wetlands in Yangtze River because Carex are primary food source and habitat for herbivorous waterfowls.

Mercury distributions in sediments of an estuary subject to anthropogenic hydrodynamic alterations (Patos Estuary, Southern Brazil).

The city of Rio Grande, located on the right bank of the Patos Estuary, has been severely contaminated by mercury (Hg) due to anthropogenic activities that chiefly began in the eighteenth century. To investigate the natural mercury distribution along the salinity gradient in the estuary, three sediment cores were collected from a region of the estuary that has experienced less anthropogenic impacts, namely its left bank. Our study demonstrates that accumulation of Hg and formation of metal sulfide minerals take place in fine grain sediment horizons within the sampled sediment cores. Mercury immobilization in these sediments occurs via binding to organic matter coatings on fine grain sediment particles, as well as by incorporation into and/or co-precipitation with iron sulfide minerals. The grain size controls over Hg accumulation and sulfide mineral formation were statistically demonstrated using principal component analysis. Different fine particulate sediment deposition patterns occurred at each sampling location, which is attributed to the consequence of hydrological changes in the estuary resulting from navigation infrastructure reforms performed over the past 200 years in the local port (e.g., dredging) and its surroundings. We suggest that the port building and maintenance activities have influenced Hg distributions in the estuarine sediments.

Using stable isotopes paired with tritium analysis to assess thermokarst lake water balances in the Source Area of the Yellow River, northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China.

A spatially distributed network of thermokarst lakes undergoing significant environmental changes was sampled in 2014 and 2016 to develop a comprehensive understanding of lake water balances in lakes across a gradient of frozen ground conditions. Frozen ground ranges from seasonally frozen ground (SFG) to sporadic discontinuous permafrost (SDP) to extensive discontinuous permafrost (EDP), and is representative of complex conditions in the Source Area of the Yellow River, northeastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Radioactive and stable water isotopes in reference lakes (non-thaw lakes), thermokarst lakes, precipitation, wetlands, ground ice and supra-permafrost groundwater are analyzed to characterize systematic variations and to assess lake water balances using stable isotope mass balance (IMB). IMB, paired with analysis of tritium decay gradients, is shown to be a valid approach for detecting short-term shifts in lake water balance, which allows evaluation of the proportion of precipitation-derived versus permafrost-derived water inputs to lakes. All lakes except EDP thaw lakes are evaporation-dominated (E/I > 0.5). Negative water balances occurred most frequently in reference lakes due to hydrological connectivity with rivers. Precipitation-derived water inputs result in positive water balances in SFG and SDP thermokarst lakes, but negative-trending water balances are found in SDP thermokarst lakes due to substantial reduction in water yield. Increasing contributions from thawing permafrost in EDP thermokarst lakes result in strong positive water balance. Permafrost degradation may also lead to the changes in hydrological connectivity between precipitation and wetlands or thermokarst lakes. Based on these findings, a conceptual model of the hydrological evolution of thermokarst lakes under the influence of permafrost degradation is proposed.

Effects of increased flooding on riparian vegetation: Field experiments simulating climate change along five European lowland streams.

In many parts of the world, the magnitude and frequency of cold-season precipitation are expected to increase in the near future. This will result in an increased magnitude and duration of winter and spring flooding by rain-fed streams and rivers. Such climate-driven increases in flooding are likely to affect riparian plant communities, but future vegetation changes are hard to predict due to current lack of data. To fill this knowledge gap, we experimentally modified the hydrology of five streams across three countries in north-western Europe during late winter/early spring over a period of 3 years. We assessed the responses in riparian plant species richness, biomass, plant-available nitrogen and phosphorus and seed deposition to increased flooding depth (+18 cm on average at the lowest positions along the riparian gradient) and prolonged flooding duration (6 weeks on average). After 3 years of increased flooding, there was an overall decline in riparian species richness, while riparian plant biomass increased. Extractable soil nitrogen and phosphorus also increased and are likely to have contributed to the increased biomass. Increased flooding resulted in the arrival of more seeds of additional species to the riparian zone, thereby potentially facilitating the shifts in riparian plant species composition we observed. The results of our concerted experimental effort demonstrate that changes in stream riparian plant communities can occur rapidly following increased winter flooding, leading to strong reductions in plant species diversity.

Riparian plant community responses to increased flooding: a meta-analysis.

A future higher risk of severe flooding of streams and rivers has been projected to change riparian plant community composition and species richness, but the extent and direction of the expected change remain uncertain. We conducted a meta-analysis to synthesize globally available experimental evidence and assess the effects of increased flooding on (1) riparian adult plant and seedling survival, (2) riparian plant biomass and (3) riparian plant species composition and richness. We evaluated which plant traits are of key importance for the response of riparian plant species to flooding. We identified and analysed 53 papers from ISI Web of Knowledge which presented quantitative experimental results on flooding treatments and corresponding control situations. Our meta-analysis demonstrated how longer duration of flooding, greater depth of flooding and, particularly, their combination reduce seedling survival of most riparian species. Plant height above water level, ability to elongate shoots and plasticity in root porosity were decisive for adult plant survival and growth during longer periods of flooding. Both 'quiescence' and 'escape' proved to be successful strategies promoting riparian plant survival, which was reflected in the wide variation in survival (full range between 0 and 100%) under fully submerged conditions, while plants that protrude above the water level (>20 cm) almost all survive. Our survey confirmed that the projected increase in the duration and depth of flooding periods is sufficient to result in species shifts. These shifts may lead to increased or decreased riparian species richness depending on the nutrient, climatic and hydrological status of the catchment. Species richness was generally reduced at flooded sites in nutrient-rich catchments and sites that previously experienced relatively stable hydrographs (e.g. rain-fed lowland streams). Species richness usually increased at sites in desert and semi-arid climate regions (e.g. intermittent streams).