Water availability and extreme events under climate change scenarios in an experimental watershed of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.

Climate change has diversified negative implications on environmental sustainability and water availability. Assessing the impacts of climate change is crucial to enhance resilience and future preparedness particularly at a watershed scale. Therefore, the goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the water balance components and extreme events in Piabanha watershed in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. In this study, extreme climate change scenarios were developed using a wide array of global climate models acquired from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Reports (AR6). Two extreme climate change scenarios, DryHot and WetCool, were integrated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) hydrological model to evaluate their impacts on the hydrological dynamics in the watershed. The baseline SWAT model was first developed and evaluated using different model performance evaluation metrics such as coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe (NSC), and Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient (KGE). The model results illustrated an excellent model performance with metric values reaching 0.89 and 0.64 for monthly and daily time steps respectively in the calibration (2008 to 2017) and validation (2018 to 2023) periods. The findings of future climate change impacts assessment underscored an increase in temperature and shifts in precipitation patterns. In terms of streamflow, high-flow events may experience a 47.3 % increase, while low-flows could see an 76.6 % reduction. In the DryHot scenario, annual precipitation declines from 1657 to 1420 mm, with evapotranspiration reaching 54 % of precipitation, marking a 9 % rise compared to the baseline. Such changes could induce water stress in plants and lead to modifications on structural attributes of the ecosystem recognized as the Atlantic rainforest. This study established boundaries concerning the effects of climate change and highlighted the need for proactive adaptation strategies and mitigation measures to minimize the potential adverse impacts in the study watershed.

Land-use changes and precipitation cycles to understand hydrodynamic responses in semiarid Mediterranean karstic watersheds.

Non-planned agricultural land abandonment is affecting natural hydrological processes. This is especially relevant in vulnerable arid karstic watersheds, where water resources are scarce but vital for sustaining natural ecosystems and human settlements. However, studies assessing the spatiotemporal evolution of the hydrological responses considering land-use changes and precipitation cycles for long periods are rare in karstic environments. In this research, we selected a representative karstic watershed in a Mediterranean semiarid domain, since in this belt, karst environments are prone to land degradation processes due to human impacts. Geographic Information Systems-based tools and hydrological modeling considering daily time steps were combined with temporal analysis of climate variables (wavelet analysis) to demonstrate possible interactions and vulnerable responses. Observed daily flow data were used to calibrate/validate these hydrological models by applying statistic indicators such as the NSE efficiency and a self-developed index (the ANSE index). This new index could enhance goodness-of-fit measurements obtained with traditional statistics during the model optimization. We hypothesize that this is key to adding new inputs to this research line. Our results revealed that: i) changes in the type of sclerophyllous vegetation (Quercus calliprinos, ilex, rotundifolia, suber, etc.) from 81.5% during the initial stage (1990) to natural grasslands by 81.6% (2018); and, ii) decreases in agricultural areas (crops) by approximately 60% and their transformation into coniferous forests, rock outcrops, sparsely natural grasslands, etc. in the same period. Consequently, increases in the curve number (CN) rates were identified as a result of land abandonment. As a result, an increase in peak flow events jointly with a relevant decrease of the average flow rates (water scarcity) in the watershed was predicted by the HEC-HMS model and verified through the observed data. This research provides useful information about the effects of anthropogenic changes in the hydrodynamic behaviour of karstic watersheds and water resource impacts, especially key in water-scarce areas that depict important hazards for the water supply of related populations and natural ecosystems.

Effect of environmental covariable selection in the hydrological modeling using machine learning models to predict daily streamflow.

There are different methods for predicting streamflow, and, recently machine learning has been widely used for this purpose. This technique uses a wide set of covariables in the prediction process that must undergo a selection to increase the precision and stability of the models. Thus, this work aimed to analyze the effect of covariable selection with Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) and Forward Feature Selection (FFS) in the performance of machine learning models to predict daily streamflow. The study was carried out in the Piranga river basin, located in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The database consisted of an 18-year-old historical series (2000-2017) of streamflow data at the outlet of the basin and the covariables derived from the streamflow of affluent rivers, precipitation, land use and land cover, products from the MODIS sensors, and time. The highly correlated covariables were eliminated and the selection of covariables by the level of importance was carried out by the RFE and FFS methods for the Multivariate Adaptive Regression (EARTH), Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), and Random Forest (RF) models. The data were partitioned into two groups: 75% for training and 25% for validation. The models were run 50 times and had their performance evaluated by the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE), Determination coefficient (R2), and Root of Mean Square Error (RMSE). The three models tested showed satisfactory performance with both covariable selection methods, however, all of them proved to be inaccurate for predicting values associated with maximum streamflow events. The use of FFS, in most cases, improved the performance of the models and reduced the number of selected covariables. The use of machine learning to predict daily streamflow proved to be efficient and the use of FFS in the selection of covariables enhanced this efficiency.

Pluviometric and fluviometric trends in association with future projections in areas of conflict for water use.

Rapid population growth coupled with climate change has been putting pressure on natural resources worldwide, especially on water resources. The Paracatu basin located in Brazil is a basin which has been showing a reduction in its water availability for many years due to the growing demand for irrigation in the region. Therefore, the objective of the present work was to analyze the trends in the flow and precipitation data for the Paracatu basin and correlate them with land use between the years 1980 and 2019, and thus make a projection of flows through the year 2030 based on these results. The projections of future flows in the fluviometric stations analyzed were obtained using the WEAP model, considering the projected increase in the irrigated area for the region and the future climate data from the IPCC for the RCP 4.5 scenario. The results of the analyzes indicated a tendency towards a reduction in flows in all the analyzed fluviometric stations, both in the monthly and annual series, whereas the total annual precipitation did not show a trend in the analyzed period. Future flows showed a downward trend, as well as flows observed in the period from 1980 to 2019, reinforcing that activities such as irrigated agriculture without planning can negatively affect the sustainability of water resources, intensifying conflicts and tensions which already exist in the basin. This type of analysis proved to have great potential to contribute to the solution of water resource management challenges in several hydrographic basins around the world which are in a situation of scarcity and conflict.

Evapotranspiration of the Vetiver and Tifton 85 grasses grown in horizontal subsurface flow constructed wetlands.

Estimation of the Crop Evapotranspiration (ETC) in Horizontal Subsurface Flow Constructed Wetlands (HSSF-CWs) is of great importance for hydrological modeling of these systems. The objective of this work was to obtain the Crop Coefficient (KC) values of Vetiver (Chrysopogon zizanioides) and Tifton 85 (Cynodon spp.) grasses when grown in HSSF-CWs whose porous medium was saturated with solutions containing different nutrients concentrations. The water balance was performed every day in order to determine the KC of the grasses. It was verified that the KC values of the Vetiver grass were independent of the nutrient availability, expressed in terms of Electrical Conductivity (EC) of the nutrient solution. The KC value in the initial growth phase (Phase I) was 0.99, independent of the seasons. In Phase II, the KC were 0.95 and 1.36 for autumn and spring, respectively, and for Phase III were 1.12 in autumn and 1.60 in spring. In relation to the Tifton 85 grass, the KC values showed a quadratic behavior as a function of the EC, where the KC estimation models were obtained by the cluster analysis in Phase II and III. For Phase I, the KC value was 1.17, independent of the EC and the time of year.

Análise da implantação de reservatórios de detenção de forma que sejam minimizados os impactos causados por inundações / Implementation analysis of detention reservoirs in order to minimize the impacts caused by floods

RESUMO Por causa do avanço da ocupação urbana e consequente impermeabilização dos solos, ocorre um aumento do escoamento superficial, provocando, assim, inundações mais frequentes do que as que existiam quando a superfície era permeável. Este trabalho teve como objetivo propor o uso de reservatório de detenção como técnica compensatória de drenagem urbana. Para isso, foram simulados cenários, com e sem a implantação de reservatórios, e compararam-se os resultados hidrológicos com o cenário de pré-urbanização, também simulado. As simulações foram realizadas a partir dos modelos hidrológicos da plataforma Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) - Hydrologic Modeling System (HMS). Foram analisadas diferentes concepções de reservatórios e concluiu-se que aquele com dispositivos de saída instalados ao longo de sua altura fornece resultados hidrológicos favoráveis. Por último, verificou-se a capacidade dos reservatórios para períodos de retorno igual e inferiores a 100 anos, de forma que se obtenha a eficiência dos reservatórios em outros períodos de recorrência, cujos resultados com a execução de reservatórios em pontos estratégicos demonstraram que tais dispositivos reduzem significativamente as vazões de saída, e, para os períodos de retorno de 5, 20, 50 e 100 anos, foram, respectivamente, 182,56; 209,63; 233,10; e 244,61%. Portanto, o uso de reservatórios pode ser considerado positivo com relação a redução de inundações e possíveis prejuízos financeiros satisfatórios.

ABSTRACT Due to the increasing urban occupation, and subsequent sealing of the soil, there is an increase in the surface runoff, thus causing more frequent floods than those that existed when the surface was permeable. The objective of this study was to propose the use of a detention reservoir as a compensatory urban drainage technique. For this, scenarios were simulated, with and without reservoir implementation, and the hydrological results were compared with the simulated pre-urbanization scenario. The simulations were performed from the hydrological models of the HEC-HMS platform. Different conceptions of reservoirs were analyzed, and it was concluded that the reservoir with output devices installed along its height provides favorable hydrological results. Finally, the capacity of the reservoirs for return periods equal to and below 100 years was verified, in order to obtain the efficiency of the reservoirs in other periods of recurrence, whose results with the execution of reservoirs at strategic points demonstrated that such devices significantly reduce the outflows, and for the return periods of 5, 20, 50 and 100 years were respectively 182.56%, 209.63%, 233.10%, 244.61%. Therefore, the use of reservoirs can be considered positive in relation to the reduction of floods and possible financial losses.

Análise do avanço da cunha salina em sistema aquífero costeiro / Analysis of the advancement of seawater intrusion in coastal aquifer system

RESUMO A exploração indiscriminada de água subterrânea pode causar o colapso dos aquíferos costeiros. Nesse escopo, este trabalho avaliou o comportamento da cunha salina em parte do sistema Barreiras/Marituba, que fica na costa da região metropolitana de Maceió (AL), fazendo uso de modelagem e índices hidrogeoquímicos. O modelo foi calibrado tanto para o fluxo subterrâneo como para a concentração de sólidos totais dissolvidos, nos quais atingiu coeficiente de correlação de 0,764 e 0,682, respectivamente. Foram analisados dois cenários distintos, que permitiram verificar o efeito da explotação de água subterrânea na cunha salina para uma projeção de dez anos. O primeiro considerou a explotação existente até 2015, sem acréscimos de bombeamentos. Como resultado, verificou-se o avanço da cunha salina em duas áreas do domínio e outra área sofreu recuo, além da formação de cones com ascensão vertical da água do mar. No segundo cenário, foram adicionadas, além das licenças de obras hídricas já existentes, como poços, a hipótese de instalação de 36 novos poços de bombeamento, considerando o crescimento da cidade. Porém, nesse caso, não foi possível visualizar variações significativas na zona de mescla em relação ao primeiro cenário. A análise dos índices hidrogeoquímicos apontou para maiores concentrações de cloretos na região próxima à linha do Oceano Atlântico, com pouca influência do nitrato e, no geral, indicou a existência de intrusão de água do mar.

ABSTRACT The groundwater overexploitation can cause the collapse of coastal aquifers. In this scope, this study evaluated the behavior of the salt wedge in part of the Barreiras/Marituba system aquifer present on the coast of the Metropolitan Region of Maceió, Alagoas, using hydrogeochemical modeling and indexes. The model was calibrated for both the underground flow and the total dissolved solids concentration, obtaining a correlation coefficient of 0.764 and 0.682, respectively. Two different scenarios were analyzed, which allowed verifying the effect of the exploitation of groundwater in the salt wedge for a projection of 10 years. The first considered the existing operation until 2015, without any additional pumping. Results shows that saline wedge advanced in two areas of the domain and another site was retreated, in addition to the formation of cones with vertical rise of the sea water. The second scenario, besides the already existing waterworks licenses, was also added by the installation of 36 hypothetical pumping wells, based in the city growth. However, in this case, it was not possible to visualize significant variations in the melting zone in relation to the first scenario. The analysis of hydrogeochemical indices shows to higher concentrations of chlorides in the region near the Atlantic Ocean line, with little influence of nitrate and, in general, indicated the existence of sea water intrusion.

Hydrological modeling of the Peruvian-Ecuadorian Amazon basin using GPM-IMERG satellite-based precipitation dataset.

In the last two decades, rainfall estimates provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) have proven applicable in hydrological studies. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, which provides the new generation of rainfall estimates, is now considered a global successor to TRMM. The usefulness of GPM data in hydrological applications, however, has not yet been evaluated over the Andean and Amazonian regions. This study uses GPM data provided by the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals (IMERG) (product/final run) as input to a distributed hydrological model for the Amazon Basin of Peru and Ecuador for a 16-month period (from March 2014 to June 2015) when all datasets are available. TRMM products (TMPA V7, TMPA RT datasets) and a gridded precipitation dataset processed from observed rainfall are used for comparison. The results indicate that precipitation data derived from GPM-IMERG correspond more closely to TMPA V7 than TMPA RT datasets, but both GPM-IMERG and TMPA V7 precipitation data tend to overestimate, compared to observed rainfall (by 11.1% and 15.7 %, respectively). In general, GPM-IMERG, TMPA V7 and TMPA RT correlate with observed rainfall, with a similar number of rain events correctly detected (~20%). Statistical analysis of modeled streamflows indicates that GPM-IMERG is as useful as TMPA V7 or TMPA RT datasets in southern regions (Ucayali basin). GPM-IMERG, TMPA V7 and TMPA RT do not properly simulate streamflows in northern regions (Marañón and Napo basins), probably because of the lack of adequate rainfall estimates in northern Peru and the Ecuadorian Amazon.

Contrasting climate change impact on river flows from high-altitude catchments in the Himalayan and Andes Mountains.

Mountain ranges are the world's natural water towers and provide water resources for millions of people. However, their hydrological balance and possible future changes in river flow remain poorly understood because of high meteorological variability, physical inaccessibility, and the complex interplay between climate, cryosphere, and hydrological processes. Here, we use a state-of-the art glacio-hydrological model informed by data from high-altitude observations and the latest climate change scenarios to quantify the climate change impact on water resources of two contrasting catchments vulnerable to changes in the cryosphere. The two study catchments are located in the Central Andes of Chile and in the Nepalese Himalaya in close vicinity of densely populated areas. Although both sites reveal a strong decrease in glacier area, they show a remarkably different hydrological response to projected climate change. In the Juncal catchment in Chile, runoff is likely to sharply decrease in the future and the runoff seasonality is sensitive to projected climatic changes. In the Langtang catchment in Nepal, future water availability is on the rise for decades to come with limited shifts between seasons. Owing to the high spatiotemporal resolution of the simulations and process complexity included in the modeling, the response times and the mechanisms underlying the variations in glacier area and river flow can be well constrained. The projections indicate that climate change adaptation in Central Chile should focus on dealing with a reduction in water availability, whereas in Nepal preparedness for flood extremes should be the policy priority.

Análise de desempenho de medidas estruturais e não estruturais de controle de inundações em uma bacia urbana / Performance analysis of structural and non-structural flood control measures in an urban watershed

RESUMO Este trabalho teve como objetivo analisar, por meio de simulações hidrológicas e hidráulicas, o desempenho de algumas medidas de controle de inundação, estruturais e não estruturais. Para tanto, os mapas e demais informações espaciais da bacia hidrográfica do Córrego do Gregório, em São Carlos (SP), foram digitalizadas com auxílio do software de geoprocessamento ArcGIS(r) e imagens de satélite de alta resolução. Com base nessas informações, foram propostos cenários alternativos que incorporaram as medidas de controle. Através da utilização dos softwares HEC-HMS e HEC-RAS realizaram-se as modelações hidráulicas e hidrológicas, utilizando tempos de retorno de 25, 50 e 100 anos para a chuva de projeto. Com os resultados obtidos (hidrogramas de cheia e manchas de inundação referentes a cada tempo de retorno), foi possível analisar as medidas, comparando-se os diferentes cenários. Concluiu-se, para este caso, que os melhores resultados correspondem à associação das medidas estruturais e não estruturais. Contudo, também foi verificado que, mesmo com a concretização do cenário mais favorável, o problema das inundações não seria satisfatoriamente equacionado, o que revela a necessidade de se considerar outras medidas para minimizar os prejuízos decorrentes das inundações, tais como medidas de controle na fonte, seguros contra inundações e sistemas de alerta antecipados.

ABSTRACT The present study shows an analysis of the performance of some structural and nonstructural flood control measures by means of hydrologic and hydraulic simulations. The basin of the Gregório River, in São Carlos (SP), Brazil, was scanned and scenarios that incorporate the management measures were created, both with the aid of the GIS software ArcGIS and high-resolution satellite images. Hydraulic and hydrologic modeling were performed by HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS software using return periods of 25, 50 and 100 years for the design storm. The results (flood hydrographs and flooding areas for each return period) allowed analyzing the measures by comparing the different scenarios and the best results corresponded to the association of structural and nonstructural measures. However, even by implementing the best scenario, the problem of flooding would not be satisfactorily solved, revealing the need to consider other measures to minimize flood damage, such as runoff source control measures, flood insurance and early warning systems.