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1.
PNAS Nexus ; 3(9): pgae306, 2024 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39285936

ABSTRACT

During outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, internationally connected cities often experience large and early outbreaks, while rural regions follow after some delay. This hierarchical structure of disease spread is influenced primarily by the multiscale structure of human mobility. However, during the COVID-19 epidemic, public health responses typically did not take into consideration the explicit spatial structure of human mobility when designing nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). NPIs were applied primarily at national or regional scales. Here, we use weekly anonymized and aggregated human mobility data and spatially highly resolved data on COVID-19 cases at the municipality level in Mexico to investigate how behavioral changes in response to the pandemic have altered the spatial scales of transmission and interventions during its first wave (March-June 2020). We find that the epidemic dynamics in Mexico were initially driven by exports of COVID-19 cases from Mexico State and Mexico City, where early outbreaks occurred. The mobility network shifted after the implementation of interventions in late March 2020, and the mobility network communities became more disjointed while epidemics in these communities became increasingly synchronized. Our results provide dynamic insights into how to use network science and epidemiological modeling to inform the spatial scale at which interventions are most impactful in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 and infectious diseases in general.

2.
JMIR Hum Factors ; 11: e52257, 2024 Aug 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39088256

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Human mobility data have been used as a potential novel data source to guide policies and response planning during the COVID-19 global pandemic. The COVID-19 Mobility Data Network (CMDN) facilitated the use of human mobility data around the world. Both researchers and policy makers assumed that mobility data would provide insights to help policy makers and response planners. However, evidence that human mobility data were operationally useful and provided added value for public health response planners remains largely unknown. OBJECTIVE: This exploratory study focuses on advancing the understanding of the use of human mobility data during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study explored how researchers and practitioners around the world used these data in response planning and policy making, focusing on processing data and human factors enabling or hindering use of the data. METHODS: Our project was based on phenomenology and used an inductive approach to thematic analysis. Transcripts were open-coded to create the codebook that was then applied by 2 team members who blind-coded all transcripts. Consensus coding was used for coding discrepancies. RESULTS: Interviews were conducted with 45 individuals during the early period of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although some teams used mobility data for response planning, few were able to describe their uses in policy making, and there were no standardized ways that teams used mobility data. Mobility data played a larger role in providing situational awareness for government partners, helping to understand where people were moving in relation to the spread of COVID-19 variants and reactions to stay-at-home orders. Interviewees who felt they were more successful using mobility data often cited an individual who was able to answer general questions about mobility data; provide interactive feedback on results; and enable a 2-way communication exchange about data, meaning, value, and potential use. CONCLUSIONS: Human mobility data were used as a novel data source in the COVID-19 pandemic by a network of academic researchers and practitioners using privacy-preserving and anonymized mobility data. This study reflects the processes in analyzing and communicating human mobility data, as well as how these data were used in response planning and how the data were intended for use in policy making. The study reveals several valuable use cases. Ultimately, the role of a data translator was crucial in understanding the complexities of this novel data source. With this role, teams were able to adapt workflows, visualizations, and reports to align with end users and decision makers while communicating this information meaningfully to address the goals of responders and policy makers.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Qualitative Research , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
3.
JMIR Public Health Surveill ; 10: e57742, 2024 Aug 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39037745

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Policies, such as stay home, bubbling, and stay with your community, recommending that individuals reduce contact with diverse communities, including families and schools, have been introduced to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these policies are violated if individuals from various communities gather, which is a latent risk in a real society where people move among various unreported communities. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to create a physical index to assess the possibility of contact between individuals from diverse communities, which serves as an indicator of the potential risk of SARS-CoV-2 spread when considered and combined with existing indices. METHODS: Moving direction entropy (MDE), which quantifies the diversity of moving directions of individuals in each local region, is proposed as an index to evaluate a region's risk of contact of individuals from diverse communities. MDE was computed for each inland municipality in Tokyo using mobility data collected from smartphones before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. To validate the hypothesis that the impact of intercommunity contact on infection expansion becomes larger for a virus with larger infectivity, we compared the correlations of the expansion of infectious diseases with indices, including MDE and the densities of supermarkets, restaurants, etc. In addition, we analyzed the temporal changes in MDE in municipalities. RESULTS: This study had 4 important findings. First, the MDE values for local regions showed significant invariance between different periods according to the Spearman rank correlation coefficient (>0.9). Second, MDE was found to correlate with the rate of infection cases of COVID-19 among local populations in 53 inland regions (average of 0.76 during the period of expansion). The density of restaurants had a similar correlation with COVID-19. The correlation between MDE and the rate of infection was smaller for influenza than for COVID-19, and tended to be even smaller for sexually transmitted diseases (order of infectivity). These findings support the hypothesis. Third, the spread of COVID-19 was accelerated in regions with high-rank MDE values compared to those with high-rank restaurant densities during and after the period of the governmental declaration of emergency (P<.001). Fourth, the MDE values tended to be high and increased during the pandemic period in regions where influx or daytime movement was present. A possible explanation for the third and fourth findings is that policymakers and living people have been overlooking MDE. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend monitoring the regional values of MDE to reduce the risk of infection spread. To aid in this monitoring, we present a method to create a heatmap of MDE values, thereby drawing public attention to behaviors that facilitate contact between communities during a highly infectious disease pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiology , Humans , Tokyo/epidemiology , Entropy , Pandemics , Risk Assessment/methods
4.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 8981, 2024 04 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38637570

ABSTRACT

We delve into the temporal dynamics of public transportation (PT) ridership in Seoul, South Korea, navigating the periods before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic through a spatial difference-in-difference model (SDID). Rooted in urban resilience theory, the study employs micro-level public transportation card data spanning January 2019 to December 2023. Major findings indicate a substantial ridership decline during the severe COVID impact phase, followed by a period in the stable and post-COVID phases. Specifically, compared to the pre-COVID phase, PT ridership experienced a 32.1% decrease in Severe, followed by a reduced magnitude of 21.8% in Stable and 13.5% in post-COVID phase. Interestingly, the observed decrease implies a certain level of adaptability, preventing a complete collapse. Also, contrasting with findings in previous literature, our study reveals a less severe impact, with reductions ranging from 27.0 to 34.9%. Moreover, while the ridership in the post-COVID phase exhibits recovery, the ratio (Post/Pre) staying below 1.0 suggests that the system has not fully returned to its pre-pandemic state. This study contributes to the urban resilience discourse, illustrating how PT system adjusts to COVID, offering insights for transportation planning.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Resilience, Psychological , Humans , Seoul/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics , Republic of Korea/epidemiology
5.
Int J Health Geogr ; 23(1): 9, 2024 Apr 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38614973

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Taxi drivers in a Chinese megacity are frequently exposed to traffic-related particulate matter (PM2.5) due to their job nature, busy road traffic, and urban density. A robust method to quantify dynamic population exposure to PM2.5 among taxi drivers is important for occupational risk prevention, however, it is limited by data availability. METHODS: This study proposed a rapid assessment of dynamic exposure to PM2.5 among drivers based on satellite-derived information, air quality data from monitoring stations, and GPS-based taxi trajectory data. An empirical study was conducted in Wuhan, China, to examine spatial and temporal variability of dynamic exposure and compare whether drivers' exposure exceeded the World Health Organization (WHO) and China air quality guideline thresholds. Kernel density estimation was conducted to further explore the relationship between dynamic exposure and taxi drivers' activities. RESULTS: The taxi drivers' weekday and weekend 24-h PM2.5 exposure was 83.60 µg/m3 and 55.62 µg/m3 respectively, 3.4 and 2.2 times than the WHO's recommended level of 25 µg/m3. Specifically, drivers with high PM2.5 exposure had a higher average trip distance and smaller activity areas. Although major transportation interchanges/terminals were the common activity hotspots for both taxi drivers with high and low exposure, activity hotspots of drivers with high exposure were mainly located in busy riverside commercial areas within historic and central districts bounded by the "Inner Ring Road", while hotspots of drivers with low exposure were new commercial areas in the extended urbanized area bounded by the "Third Ring Road". CONCLUSION: These findings emphasized the need for air quality management and community planning to mitigate the potential health risks of taxi drivers.


Subject(s)
Asian People , Particulate Matter , Humans , China/epidemiology , Empirical Research , Particulate Matter/adverse effects , Spatial Analysis
6.
J Math Biol ; 88(6): 67, 2024 Apr 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38641762

ABSTRACT

Human mobility, which refers to the movement of people from one location to another, is believed to be one of the key factors shaping the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. There are multiple reasons that can change human mobility patterns, such as fear of an infection, control measures restricting movement, economic opportunities, political instability, etc. Human mobility rates are complex to estimate as they can occur on various time scales, depending on the context and factors driving the movement. For example, short-term movements are influenced by the daily work schedule, whereas long-term trends can be due to seasonal employment opportunities. The goal of the study is to perform literature review to: (i) identify relevant data sources that can be used to estimate human mobility rates at different time scales, (ii) understand the utilization of variety of data to measure human movement trends under different contexts of mobility changes, and (iii) unraveling the associations between human mobility rates and social determinants of health affecting COVID-19 disease dynamics. The systematic review of literature was carried out to collect relevant articles on human mobility. Our study highlights the use of three major sources of mobility data: public transit, mobile phones, and social surveys. The results also provides analysis of the data to estimate mobility metrics from the diverse data sources. All major factors which directly and indirectly influenced human mobility during the COVID-19 spread are explored. Our study recommends that (a) a significant balance between primitive and new estimated mobility parameters need to be maintained, (b) the accuracy and applicability of mobility data sources should be improved, (c) encouraging broader interdisciplinary collaboration in movement-based research is crucial for advancing the study of COVID-19 dynamics among scholars from various disciplines.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/transmission , Humans , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Mathematical Concepts , Social Determinants of Health/statistics & numerical data , Population Dynamics/statistics & numerical data , Information Sources
7.
J Environ Manage ; 354: 120482, 2024 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38402789

ABSTRACT

Outdoor recreation is important for improving quality of life, well-being, and local economies, but quantifying its value without direct monetary transactions can be challenging. This study explores combining non-market valuation techniques with emerging big data sources to estimate the value of recreation for the York River and surrounding parks in Virginia. By applying the travel cost method to anonymous human mobility data, we gain deeper insights into the significance of recreational experiences for visitors and the local economy. Results of a zero-inflated Negative Binomial model show a mean consumer surplus value of $26.91 per trip, totaling $15.5 million across nearly 600,000 trips observed in 2022. Further, weekends, holidays, and the summer and fall months are found to be peak visitation times, whereas those with young children and who are Hispanic or over 64 years old are less likely to visit. These findings shed light on various factors influencing visitation patterns and recreation values, including temporal effects and socio-demographics, revealing disparities that warrant targeted efforts for inclusivity and accessibility. Policymakers can use these insights to make informed and sustainable choices in outdoor recreation management, fostering the preservation of natural resources for the benefit of both visitors and the environment.


Subject(s)
Recreation , Rivers , Child , Humans , Child, Preschool , Middle Aged , Virginia , Big Data , Quality of Life
8.
Risk Anal ; 44(2): 390-407, 2024 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37544906

ABSTRACT

How evacuations are managed can substantially impact the risks faced by affected communities. Having a better understanding of the mobility patterns of evacuees can improve the planning and management of these evacuations. Although mobility patterns during evacuations have traditionally been studied through surveys, mobile phone location data can be used to capture these movements for a greater number of evacuees over a larger geographic area. Several approaches have been used to identify hurricane evacuation patterns from location data; however, each approach relies on researcher judgment to first determine the areas from which evacuations occurred and then identify evacuations by determining when an individual spends a specified number of nights away from home. This approach runs the risk of detecting non-evacuation behaviors (e.g., work trips, vacations, etc.) and incorrectly labeling them as evacuations where none occurred. In this article, we developed a data-driven method to determine which areas experienced evacuations. With this approach, we inferred home locations of mobile phone users, calculated their departure times, and determined if an evacuation may have occurred by comparing the number of departures around the time of the hurricane against historical trends. As a case study, we applied this method to location data from Hurricanes Matthew and Irma to identify areas that experienced evacuations and illustrate how this method can be used to detect changes in departure behavior leading up to and following a hurricane. We validated and examined the inferred homes for representativeness and validated observed evacuation trends against past studies.

9.
Sensors (Basel) ; 23(19)2023 Sep 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37837008

ABSTRACT

The unprecedented availability of sensor networks and GPS-enabled devices has caused the accumulation of voluminous georeferenced data streams. These data streams offer an opportunity to derive valuable insights and facilitate decision making for urban planning. However, processing and managing such data is challenging, given the size and multidimensionality of these data. Therefore, there is a growing interest in spatial approximate query processing depending on stratified-like sampling methods. However, in these solutions, as the number of strata increases, response time grows, thus counteracting the benefits of sampling. In this paper, we originally show the design and realization of a novel online geospatial approximate processing solution called GeoRAP. GeoRAP employs a front-stage filter based on the Ramer-Douglas-Peucker line simplification algorithm to reduce the size of study area coverage; thereafter, it employs a spatial stratified-like sampling method that minimizes the number of strata, thus increasing throughput and minimizing response time, while keeping the accuracy loss in check. Our method is applicable for various online and batch geospatial processing workloads, including complex geo-statistics, aggregation queries, and the generation of region-based aggregate geo-maps such as choropleth maps and heatmaps. We have extensively tested the performance of our prototyped solution with real-world big spatial data, and this paper shows that GeoRAP can outperform state-of-the-art baselines by an order of magnitude in terms of throughput while statistically obtaining results with good accuracy.

10.
Environ Res ; 239(Pt 2): 117360, 2023 Dec 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37852457

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus pandemic greatly disrupted the lives of people. Restrictions introduced worldwide to limit the spread of infection included stay-at-home orders, closure of venues, restrictions to travel and limits to social contacts. During this time, parks and outdoor greenspaces gained prominent attention as alternative location for respite. Population mobility data offers a unique opportunity to understand the impact of the pandemic on outdoor behaviour. We examine the role of the restrictions on park use throughout the full span of the pandemic while controlling for weather and region. METHODS: This study provides a longitudinal population analysis of park visitation using Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports data in the UK. Daily park visitation was plotted and ANOVA analyses tested season and year effects in visitation. Then, regressions examined park visitation beyond weather (temperature and rain), according to COVID-19 restrictions, while controlling for region specificities through unit fixed effect models. RESULTS: Time series and ANOVA analyses documented the significant decrease in park visitation in the spring of 2020, the seasonal pattern in visitation, and an overall sustained and elevated use over nearly three years. Regressions confirmed park visitation increased significantly when temperature was greater and when it rained less. More visitation was also seen when there were fewer COVID-19 cases and when the stringency level of restrictions was lower. Of special interest, a significant interaction effect was found between temperature and stringency, with stringency significantly supressing the effect of higher temperature on visitation. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 restrictions negatively impacted park visitation on warm days. Given the general health, social, and wellbeing benefits of greenspace use, one should consider the collateral negative impact of restrictions on park visitation. When social distancing of contacts is required, the few remaining locations where it can safely occur should instead be promoted.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics , Parks, Recreational , Travel , United Kingdom/epidemiology
11.
Public Health ; 221: 116-123, 2023 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37441995

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate how people's health-seeking behaviors evolve in the COVID-19 pandemic by community and medical service category. STUDY DESIGN: This is a longitudinal study using mobility data from 19 million mobile devices of visits to all types of health facility locations for all US states. METHODS: We examine the variations in weekly in-person medical visits across county, neighborhood, and specialty levels. Different regression models are used for each level to investigate factors that influence the disparities in medical visits. County-level analysis explores associations between county medical visit patterns, political orientation, and COVID-19 infection rate. Neighborhood-level analysis focuses on neighborhood socio-economic compositions as potential determinants of medical visit levels. Specialty-level analysis compares the evolution of visit disruptions in different specialties. RESULTS: A more left-leaning political orientation and a higher local infection rate were associated with larger decreases in in-person medical visits, and these associations became stronger, moving from the initial period of stay-at-home orders into the post-lockdown period. Initial reactions were strongest for seniors and those of high socio-economic status, but this reversed in post-lockdown period where socio-economically disadvantaged communities stabilized at a lower level of medical visits. Neighborhoods with more female and young people exhibited larger decreases in in-person medical visits throughout the initial and post-lockdown periods. The evolution of disruptions diverges across medical specialties, from only short-term disruption in specialties such as dentistry to increasing disruption, as in cardiology. CONCLUSIONS: Given distinct patterns in visit between communities, medical service categories, and between different periods in the pandemic, policy makers, and providers should concentrate on monitoring patients in disrupted specialties who overlap with the at-risk contexts and socio-economic factors in future health emergencies.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Medicine , Telemedicine , United States/epidemiology , Humans , Female , Adolescent , COVID-19/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control , Economic Status , Longitudinal Studies , Pandemics
12.
Data Brief ; 48: 109246, 2023 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37383791

ABSTRACT

During a period of 7 months, 54 class N3 trucks from 4 fleets of German fleet operators were equipped with high resolution GPS data loggers. A total of 1.26 million km of driving data has been recorded and constitutes one of the most comprehensive open datasets to date for high-resolution data of heavy commercial vehicles. This dataset provides metadata of recorded tracks as well as high-resolution time series data of the vehicle speed. Its applications include simulation of electrification for heavy commercial vehicles, modeling logistics processes or driving cycle construction.

13.
Front Public Health ; 11: 1142602, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37181684

ABSTRACT

Introduction: After the initial onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the government of Canada and provincial health authorities imposed restrictive policies to limit virus transmission and mitigate disease burden. In this study, the pandemic implications in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia (NS) were evaluated as a function of the movement of people and governmental restrictions during successive SARS-CoV-2 variant waves (i.e., Alpha through Omicron). Methods: Publicly available data obtained from community mobility reports (Google), the Bank of Canada Stringency Index, the "COVID-19 Tracker" service, including cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and vaccines, population mobility trends, and governmental response data were used to relate the effectiveness of policies in controlling movement and containing multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2. Results: Our results indicate that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic inflicted low burden in NS in the initial 2 years of the pandemic. In this period, we identified reduced mobility patterns in the population. We also observed a negative correlation between public transport (-0.78), workplace (-0.69), retail and recreation (-0.68) and governmental restrictions, indicating a tight governmental control of these movement patterns. During the initial 2 years, governmental restrictions were high and the movement of people low, characterizing a 'seek-and-destroy' approach. Following this phase, the highly transmissible Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant began circulating in NS at the end of the second year, leading to increased cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. During this Omicron period, unsustainable governmental restrictions and waning public adherence led to increased population mobility, despite increased transmissibility (26.41-fold increase) and lethality (9.62-fold increase) of the novel variant. Discussion: These findings suggest that the low initial burden caused by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was likely a result of enhanced restrictions to contain the movement of people and consequently, the spread of the disease. Easing public health restrictions (as measured by a decline in the BOC index) during periods of high transmissibility of circulating COVID-19 variants contributed to community spread, despite high levels of immunization in NS.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humans , Nova Scotia/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Communicable Disease Control
14.
EPJ Data Sci ; 12(1): 15, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37220629

ABSTRACT

Urbanization and its problems require an in-depth and comprehensive understanding of urban dynamics, especially the complex and diversified lifestyles in modern cities. Digitally acquired data can accurately capture complex human activity, but it lacks the interpretability of demographic data. In this paper, we study a privacy-enhanced dataset of the mobility visitation patterns of 1.2 million people to 1.1 million places in 11 metro areas in the U.S. to detect the latent mobility behaviors and lifestyles in the largest American cities. Despite the considerable complexity of mobility visitations, we found that lifestyles can be automatically decomposed into only 12 latent interpretable activity behaviors on how people combine shopping, eating, working, or using their free time. Rather than describing individuals with a single lifestyle, we find that city dwellers' behavior is a mixture of those behaviors. Those detected latent activity behaviors are equally present across cities and cannot be fully explained by main demographic features. Finally, we find those latent behaviors are associated with dynamics like experienced income segregation, transportation, or healthy behaviors in cities, even after controlling for demographic features. Our results signal the importance of complementing traditional census data with activity behaviors to understand urban dynamics. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1140/epjds/s13688-023-00390-w.

15.
JMIR Public Health Surveill ; 9: e40514, 2023 05 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37213190

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic placed a tremendous strain on health care systems worldwide. To mitigate the spread of the virus, many countries implemented stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which significantly altered human behavior both before and after their enactment. Despite these efforts, a precise assessment of the impact and efficacy of these NPIs, as well as the extent of human behavioral changes, remained elusive. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the initial wave of COVID-19 in Spain to better comprehend the influence of NPIs and their interaction with human behavior. Such investigations are vital for devising future mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19 and enhance epidemic preparedness more broadly. METHODS: We used a combination of national and regional retrospective analyses of pandemic incidence alongside large-scale mobility data to assess the impact and timing of government-implemented NPIs in combating COVID-19. Additionally, we compared these findings with a model-based inference of hospitalizations and fatalities. This model-based approach enabled us to construct counterfactual scenarios that gauged the consequences of delayed initiation of epidemic response measures. RESULTS: Our analysis demonstrated that the pre-national lockdown epidemic response, encompassing regional measures and heightened individual awareness, significantly contributed to reducing the disease burden in Spain. The mobility data indicated that people adjusted their behavior in response to the regional epidemiological situation before the nationwide lockdown was implemented. Counterfactual scenarios suggested that without this early epidemic response, there would have been an estimated 45,400 (95% CI 37,400-58,000) fatalities and 182,600 (95% CI 150,400-233,800) hospitalizations compared to the reported figures of 27,800 fatalities and 107,600 hospitalizations, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings underscore the significance of self-implemented prevention measures by the population and regional NPIs before the national lockdown in Spain. The study also emphasizes the necessity for prompt and precise data quantification prior to enacting enforced measures. This highlights the critical interplay between NPIs, epidemic progression, and human behavior. This interdependence presents a challenge in predicting the impact of NPIs before they are implemented.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Humans , Pandemics/prevention & control , COVID-19/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control , Retrospective Studies , Spain/epidemiology
16.
Elife ; 122023 04 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37014055

ABSTRACT

Background: Since the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic, substantial public attention has focused on the role of seasonality in impacting transmission. Misconceptions have relied on seasonal mediation of respiratory diseases driven solely by environmental variables. However, seasonality is expected to be driven by host social behavior, particularly in highly susceptible populations. A key gap in understanding the role of social behavior in respiratory disease seasonality is our incomplete understanding of the seasonality of indoor human activity. Methods: We leverage a novel data stream on human mobility to characterize activity in indoor versus outdoor environments in the United States. We use an observational mobile app-based location dataset encompassing over 5 million locations nationally. We classify locations as primarily indoor (e.g. stores, offices) or outdoor (e.g. playgrounds, farmers markets), disentangling location-specific visits into indoor and outdoor, to arrive at a fine-scale measure of indoor to outdoor human activity across time and space. Results: We find the proportion of indoor to outdoor activity during a baseline year is seasonal, peaking in winter months. The measure displays a latitudinal gradient with stronger seasonality at northern latitudes and an additional summer peak in southern latitudes. We statistically fit this baseline indoor-outdoor activity measure to inform the incorporation of this complex empirical pattern into infectious disease dynamic models. However, we find that the disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic caused these patterns to shift significantly from baseline and the empirical patterns are necessary to predict spatiotemporal heterogeneity in disease dynamics. Conclusions: Our work empirically characterizes, for the first time, the seasonality of human social behavior at a large scale with a high spatiotemporal resolutio and provides a parsimonious parameterization of seasonal behavior that can be included in infectious disease dynamics models. We provide critical evidence and methods necessary to inform the public health of seasonal and pandemic respiratory pathogens and improve our understanding of the relationship between the physical environment and infection risk in the context of global change. Funding: Research reported in this publication was supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences of the National Institutes of Health under award number R01GM123007.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Humans , United States/epidemiology , Respiratory Aerosols and Droplets , COVID-19/epidemiology , Seasons , Built Environment
17.
Health Place ; 81: 103002, 2023 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36966668

ABSTRACT

Commercially-available location-based services (LBS) data derived primarily from mobile devices may provide an alternative to surveys for monitoring physically-active transportation. Using Spearman correlation, we compared county-level metrics of walking and bicycling from StreetLight with metrics of physically-active commuting among U.S. workers from the American Community Survey. Our strongest pair of metrics ranked counties (n = 298) similarly for walking (rho = 0.53 [95% CI: 0.44-0.61]) and bicycling (rho = 0.61 [0.53-0.67]). Correlations were higher for denser and more urban counties. LBS data may offer public health and transportation professionals timely information on walking and bicycling behavior at finer geographic scales than some existing surveys.


Subject(s)
Bicycling , Walking , Humans , United States , Transportation , Surveys and Questionnaires , Geographic Information Systems
18.
Data Brief ; 46: 108898, 2023 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36748038

ABSTRACT

Location-Based Services (LBS) have been prosperous owing to technological advancements of smart devices. Analyzing location-based user-generated data is a helpful way to understand human mobility patterns, further fueling applications such as recommender systems and urban computing. This dataset documents user activities of location-based services through LBSLab, a smartphone-based system implemented as a mini-program in the WeChat app. The dataset contains activity data of multiple types including logins, profile viewing, weather checking, and check-ins with location information (latitude and longitude), POI and mood indicated, collected from 467 users over a period of 11 days. We also present some temporal and spatial data analysis and believe the reuse of the data will allow researchers to better understand user behaviors of LBS, human mobility, and also temporal and spatial characteristics of people's moods.

19.
BMC Public Health ; 23(1): 98, 2023 01 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36639781

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Japanese government has restricted people's going-out behavior by declaring a non-punitive state of emergency several times under COVID-19. This study aims to analyze how multiple policy interventions that impose non-legally binding restrictions on behavior associate with people's going-out. THEORY: This study models the stigma model of self-restraint behavior under the pandemic with habituation effects. The theoretical result indicates that the state of emergency's self-restraint effects weaken with the number of times. METHODS: The empirical analysis examines the impact of emergency declarations on going-out behavior using a prefecture-level daily panel dataset. The dataset includes Google's going-out behavior data, the Japanese government's policy interventions based on emergency declarations, and covariates that affect going-out behavior, such as weather and holidays. RESULTS: First, for multiple emergency declarations from the beginning of the pandemic to 2021, the negative association between emergency declarations and mobility was confirmed in a model that did not distinguish the number of emergency declarations. Second, in the model that considers the number of declarations, the negative association was found to decrease with the number of declarations. CONCLUSION: These empirical analyses are consistent with the results of theoretical analyses, which show that the negative association between people's going-out behavior and emergency declarations decreases in magnitude as the number of declarations increases.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Habituation, Psychophysiologic , Social Stigma , Government , Pandemics
20.
Epidemics ; 42: 100666, 2023 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36689876

ABSTRACT

Reliable estimates of human mobility are important for understanding the spatial spread of infectious diseases and the effective targeting of control measures. However, when modelling infectious disease dynamics, data on human mobility at an appropriate temporal or spatial resolution are not always available, leading to the common use of model-derived mobility proxies. In this study we reviewed the different data sources and mobility models that have been used to characterise human movement in Africa. We then conducted a simulation study to better understand the implications of using human mobility proxies when predicting the spatial spread and dynamics of infectious diseases. We found major gaps in the availability of empirical measures of human mobility in Africa, leading to mobility proxies being used in place of data. Empirical data on subnational mobility were only available for 17/54 countries, and in most instances, these data characterised long-term movement patterns, which were unsuitable for modelling the spread of pathogens with short generation times (time between infection of a case and their infector). Results from our simulation study demonstrated that using mobility proxies can have a substantial impact on the predicted epidemic dynamics, with complex and non-intuitive biases. In particular, the predicted times and order of epidemic invasion, and the time of epidemic peak in different locations can be underestimated or overestimated, depending on the types of proxies used and the country of interest. Our work underscores the need for regularly updated empirical measures of population movement within and between countries to aid the prevention and control of infectious disease outbreaks. At the same time, there is a need to establish an evidence base to help understand which types of mobility data are most appropriate for describing the spread of emerging infectious diseases in different settings.


Subject(s)
Communicable Diseases , Epidemics , Humans , Computer Simulation , Disease Outbreaks , Africa , Communicable Diseases/epidemiology
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