Historical trends in mortality from "older" vaccine-preventable diseases, Colombia: implications for elimination and control.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe the trends in mortality from eight vaccine-preventable diseases in Colombia in the last 40 years and their relationship with vaccination coverage. STUDY DESIGN: It is a population-based descriptive study. METHODS: The frequencies of deaths by decade, disease, sex, and the specific mortality rates by age group were calculated. Using a negative binomial regression model, the 10-year changes in mortality and their relationship with vaccination coverage were determined. RESULTS: The number of deaths and the adjusted rates decreased since 1989 in all diseases (incidence rate ratio <1 when compared with the 1979-1988 decade). Vaccination coverage below 90% is associated with an increase in mortality from diphtheria, measles, mumps, neonatal tetanus, and pertussis. CONCLUSION: Historical changes in mortality support the benefits of vaccination, but new efforts are required to sustain the elimination of diseases.

Modeling Overdispersed Dengue Data via Poisson Inverse Gaussian Regression Model: A Case Study in the City of Campo Grande, MS, Brazil.

Dengue fever is a tropical disease transmitted mainly by the female Aedes aegypti mosquito that affects millions of people every year. As there is still no safe and effective vaccine, currently the best way to prevent the disease is to control the proliferation of the transmitting mosquito. Since the proliferation and life cycle of the mosquito depend on environmental variables such as temperature and water availability, among others, statistical models are needed to understand the existing relationships between environmental variables and the recorded number of dengue cases and predict the number of cases for some future time interval. This prediction is of paramount importance for the establishment of control policies. In general, dengue-fever datasets contain the number of cases recorded periodically (in days, weeks, months or years). Since many dengue-fever datasets tend to be of the overdispersed, long-tail type, some common models like the Poisson regression model or negative binomial regression model are not adequate to model it. For this reason, in this paper we propose modeling a dengue-fever dataset by using a Poisson-inverse-Gaussian regression model. The main advantage of this model is that it adequately models overdispersed long-tailed data because it has a wider skewness range than the negative binomial distribution. We illustrate the application of this model in a real dataset and compare its performance to that of a negative binomial regression model.

Predicting Rice Stem Stink Bug Population Dynamics Based on GAMLSS Models.

The rice stem stink bug, Tibraca limbativentris Stål (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), is one of the most harmful insects for Brazilian rice fields. Aiming to define the most appropriate time and place for pest management measures in commercial paddy fields, we adjusted regression models (Poisson, Zero Inflated Poisson, reparametrized Zero Inflated Poisson, Negative Binomial and Zero Inflated Negative Binomial) for modeling the population variation of T. limbativentris along the phenological cycle of the flooded rice cultivation. We hypothesize that the rice stem stink bug population's size is influenced by the rice cycle (time) and geographical positions within the crop. It was possible to predict the occurrence of the rice stem stink bug in the commercial flooded rice crop. The population of the rice stem stink bug increased significantly with the time or phenological evolution of rice. Our results indicated that the start of T. limbativentris monitoring should occur up to 45 d After Plant Emergence (DAE), from the regions along the edges of the rice paddies, which are the points of entry and higher concentration of the insect. In addition, 45 and 60 DAE were considered the crucial times for T. limbativentris control decision making in flooded rice paddies.

Crimen y fútbol: caso del fútbol profesional colombiano (2010-2016) / Crime and football: case of Colombian professional football (2010-2016) / Crime e soccer: caso do soccer profissional Colombian (2010-2016)

Resumen Este trabajo investiga mediante la metodología de regresión binomial negativa de ceros inflados con efectos fijos la relación entre los partidos de fútbol de la liga profesional colombiana y el número de lesiones personales, hurtos y homicidios (en un intervalo de ocho horas) presentados en veinte (20) ciudades de Colombia durante los años 2010-2016. Los resultados no evidencian una relación sistemática entre los partidos de fútbol y los delitos mencionados (es decir, aumentos o disminuciones de los delitos en una ciudad por el hecho de ser sede de un partido de fútbol o ser la ciudad del equipo visitante). Lo que sí evidencian es que hay aumentos en las lesiones personales y hurtos a personas a medida que aumenta la asistencia al estadio. La asistencia no parece tener efecto sobre los homicidios. No obstante lo anterior, los aumentos de lesiones personales y hurtos a personas no parecen ser económicamente significativos para el periodo de ocho horas dentro del cual se jugó el partido ni a nivel agregado anual para las veinte ciudades.

Abstract This paper investigates throgh the methodology of negative zero inflated with effects binomial regression relationship between Colombian profesional football games league and the number of personal injury, theft and homicide (in an interval of eight hours) presented in twenty (20) cities in Colombia during the years 2010 - 2016. The results do not show a systematic relationship between football matches and the aforementioned crimes (that means, increase or decrease in crimes in a city due to the fact of hosting a football match or being the city of the visiting team). What they do show, is that there are increases in personal injuries and theft of people as stadium attendane increases. Notwithstanding the foregoing, increases in personal injury and theft form people do not appear to be economically significant for the eigth - hour period within which the game was played nor annual at an aggregate level for the twenty cities.

Resumo Este trabalho investiga mediante a metodologia de regressão binomial negativa de zeros inflacionados com efeitos fixos a relação entre os partidos de futebol da liga profissional colombiana e o número de lesões coporais, furtos e homicídios (num intervalo de oito horas) apresentados em vinte (20) cidades da Colômbia durante os anos 2010- 2016. Los resultados no evidenciam uma relação sistemática entre os partidos de futebol e os delitos mencionados (isto é, aumentos ou diminuições dos delitos numa cidade pelo fato de ser sede de uma partida de futebol ou ser a cidade da equipe visitante). O que sim evidenciam é que há aumentos nas lesões corporais e furtos a pessoas a medida que aumenta a assistência ao estádio. A assistência no pareceter efeito sobre os homicídios. Não obstante o que precede, os aumentos de lesões corporais e furtos a pessoas não parecem ser económicamente significativos para o período de oito horas dentro do qual se jogou a partida nem a nível agregado anual para as vinte cidades.

Geographically weighted negative binomial regression applied to zonal level safety performance models.

Generalized Linear Models (GLM) with negative binomial distribution for errors, have been widely used to estimate safety at the level of transportation planning. The limited ability of this technique to take spatial effects into account can be overcome through the use of local models from spatial regression techniques, such as Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR). Although GWPR is a system that deals with spatial dependency and heterogeneity and has already been used in some road safety studies at the planning level, it fails to account for the possible overdispersion that can be found in the observations on road-traffic crashes. Two approaches were adopted for the Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR) model to allow discrete data to be modeled in a non-stationary form and to take note of the overdispersion of the data: the first examines the constant overdispersion for all the traffic zones and the second includes the variable for each spatial unit. This research conducts a comparative analysis between non-spatial global crash prediction models and spatial local GWPR and GWNBR at the level of traffic zones in Fortaleza/Brazil. A geographic database of 126 traffic zones was compiled from the available data on exposure, network characteristics, socioeconomic factors and land use. The models were calibrated by using the frequency of injury crashes as a dependent variable and the results showed that GWPR and GWNBR achieved a better performance than GLM for the average residuals and likelihood as well as reducing the spatial autocorrelation of the residuals, and the GWNBR model was more able to capture the spatial heterogeneity of the crash frequency.

Post-marketing Drug Safety Evaluation using Data Mining Based on FAERS.

Healthcare is going through a big data revolution. The amount of data generated by healthcare is expected to increase significantly in the coming years. Therefore, efficient and effective data processing methods are required to transform data into information. In addition, applying statistical analysis can transform the information into useful knowledge. We developed a data mining method that can uncover new knowledge in this enormous field for clinical decision making while generating scientific methods and hypotheses. The proposed pipeline can be generally applied to a variety of data mining tasks in medical informatics. For this study, we applied the proposed pipeline for post-marketing surveillance on drug safety using FAERS, the data warehouse created by FDA. We used 14 kinds of neurology drugs to illustrate our methods. Our result indicated that this approach can successfully reveal insight for further drug safety evaluation.

Spatial Distribution and Coexisting Patterns of Adults and Nymphs of Tibraca limbativentris (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in Paddy Rice Fields.

The rice stem stink bug, Tibraca limbativentris Stål (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), is a primary insect pest of paddy rice in South America. Knowledge of its spatial distribution can support sampling plans needed for timely decisions about pest control. This study aimed to investigate the spatial distribution of adults and nymphs of T. limbativentris and determine the spatial coexistence of these stages of development. Fifteen paddy rice fields were scouted once each season to estimate insect densities. Scouting was performed on regular grids with sampling points separated by ∼50 m. Moran's I and semivariograms were used to determine spatial distribution patterns. Spatial coexistence of nymphs and adults was explored via spatial point process. Here, adults and nymphs had typically contrasting spatial distribution patterns within the same field; however, the frequency of aggregation was not different between these developmental stages. Adults and nymphs were aggregated in seven fields and randomly distributed in the other eight fields. Uniform distribution of adults or nymphs was not observed. The study-wide semivariogram ranges were ∼40 m for adults and ∼55 m for nymphs. Nymphs and adults spatially coexisted on 67% of the fields. Coexisting patterns were classified using one of the following processes: stage-independent, bidirectional attractive, unidirectional attractive, bidirectional inhibiting, or unidirectional inhibiting. The information presented herein can be important for developing sampling plans for decision-making, implementing tactics for site-specific management, and monitoring areas free of T. limbativentris.

O percevejo-do-colmo Tibraca limbativentris Stål (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) é uma praga primária na cultura do arroz irrigado na América do Sul. O conhecimento de sua distribuição espacial é essencial para desenvolver planos de amostragem e para o controle desta praga. Nosso objetivo foi investigar a distribuição espacial de adultos e ninfas de T. limbativentris e determinar a coexistência espacial entre os estágios de desenvolvimento. As densidades de adultos e ninfas foram estimadas em quinze campos de arroz irrigado. A amostragem foi realizada em grades regulares com pontos de amostragem separados por ∼50 m. Moran's I e semivariogramas foram usados para determinar os padrões de distribuição espacial. A coexistência espacial foi explorada pela análise de processos pontuais. Foi observado que adultos e ninfas tiveram padrões contrastantes de distribuição espacial dentro do mesmo campo; no entanto, a frequência de agregação não foi diferente entre esses estágios de desenvolvimento. Adultos e ninfas estavam agregados em sete campos e distribuídos aleatoriamente nos outros oito campos. Não foi observada a distribuição uniforme de adultos ou ninfas. O alcance médio dos semivariogramas foi de ∼40 m para os adultos e ∼55 m para as ninfas. Ninfas e adultos coexistiram espacialmente em 67% dos campos. Os padrões de coexistência foram classificados usando um dos seguintes processos: independente do estágio de desenvolvimento, atração bilateral, atração unilateral, inibição bilateral, ou inibição unilateral. Nosso estudo poderá contribuir para o desenvolvimento de planos de amostragem para tomada de decisão e implementação de táticas para o manejo de sítios específicos.

Feeding at the Breast and Expressed Milk Feeding: Associations with Otitis Media and Diarrhea in Infants.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations of substance fed and mode of breast milk delivery with occurrence of otitis media and diarrhea in the first year of life. STUDY DESIGN: At 12 months postpartum, women (n = 813; 62% response) completed a questionnaire that assessed sociodemographics, infant occurrence of otitis media and diarrhea, and the timing of starting/stopping feeding at the breast, expressed milk, and formula. Women who intended to "bottle feed" exclusively were not recruited. Logistic and negative binomial regressions were conducted in the full sample (n = 491) and no-formula (n = 106) and bottle-only (n = 49) subsamples. RESULTS: Longer duration of expressed milk feeding was associated with increased odds of experiencing otitis media (6-month OR [OR6-month] 2.15, 95% CI 1.01-4.55) in the no-formula subsample. Longer durations of breast milk feeding (OR6-month 0.70, 95% CI 0.54-0.92; 6-month incidence rate ratio [IRR6-month] 0.74, 95% CI 0.63-0.91), and feeding at the breast (OR6-month 0.70, 95% CI 0.54-0.89; IRR6-month 0.74, 95% CI 0.63-0.88) were associated with less diarrhea, and longer formula feeding duration was associated with increased risk of diarrhea (IRR6-month 1.34, 95% CI 1.13-1.54) in the full sample. CONCLUSION: Substance fed and mode of breast milk delivery have different contributions to infant health depending on the health outcome of interest. Feeding at the breast may be advantageous compared with expressed milk feeding for reducing the risk of otitis media, and breast milk feeding compared with formula may reduce the risk of diarrhea.

Children at risk: A comparison of child pedestrian traffic collisions in Santiago, Chile, and Seoul, South Korea.

OBJECTIVE: We examine and compare pedestrian-vehicle collisions and injury outcomes involving school-age children between 5 and 18 years of age in the capital cities of Santiago, Chile, and Seoul, South Korea. METHODS: We conduct descriptive analysis of the child pedestrian-vehicle collision (P-VC) data (904 collisions for Santiago and 3,505 for Seoul) reported by the police between 2010 and 2011. We also statistically analyze factors associated with child P-VCs, by both incident severity and age group, using 3 regression models: negative binomial, probit, and spatial lag models. RESULTS: Descriptive statistics suggest that child pedestrians in Seoul have a higher risk of being involved in traffic crashes than their counterparts in Santiago. However, in Seoul a greater proportion of children are unharmed as a result of these incidents, whereas more child pedestrians are killed in Santiago. Younger children in Seoul suffer more injuries from P-VCs than in Santiago. The majority of P-VCs in both cities tend to occur in the afternoon and evening, at intersections in Santiago and at midblock locations in Seoul. Our model results suggest that the resident population of children is positively associated with P-VCs in both cities, and school concentrations apparently increase P-VC risk among older children in Santiago. Bus stops are associated with higher P-VCs in Seoul, and subway stations relate to higher P-VCs among older children in Santiago. Zone-level land use mix was negatively related to child P-VCs in Seoul but not in Santiago. Arterial roads are associated with fewer P-VCs, especially for younger children in both cities. A share of collector roads is associated with increased P-VCs in Seoul but fewer P-VCs in Santiago. Hilliness is related to fewer P-VCs in both cities. Differences in these model results for Santiago and Seoul warrant additional analysis, as do the differences in results across model type (negative binomial versus spatial lag models). CONCLUSIONS: To reduce child P-VCs, this study suggests the need to assess subway station and bus stop area conditions in Santiago and Seoul, respectively; areas with high density of schools in Santiago; areas with greater concentrations of children in both cities; and collector roads in Seoul.

Genomic landscape of human, bat, and ex vivo DNA transposon integrations.

The integration and fixation preferences of DNA transposons, one of the major classes of eukaryotic transposable elements, have never been evaluated comprehensively on a genome-wide scale. Here, we present a detailed study of the distribution of DNA transposons in the human and bat genomes. We studied three groups of DNA transposons that integrated at different evolutionary times: 1) ancient (>40 My) and currently inactive human elements, 2) younger (<40 My) bat elements, and 3) ex vivo integrations of piggyBat and Sleeping Beauty elements in HeLa cells. Although the distribution of ex vivo elements reflected integration preferences, the distribution of human and (to a lesser extent) bat elements was also affected by selection. We used regression techniques (linear, negative binomial, and logistic regression models with multiple predictors) applied to 20-kb and 1-Mb windows to investigate how the genomic landscape in the vicinity of DNA transposons contributes to their integration and fixation. Our models indicate that genomic landscape explains 16-79% of variability in DNA transposon genome-wide distribution. Importantly, we not only confirmed previously identified predictors (e.g., DNA conformation and recombination hotspots) but also identified several novel predictors (e.g., signatures of double-strand breaks and telomere hexamer). Ex vivo integrations showed a bias toward actively transcribed regions. Older DNA transposons were located in genomic regions scarce in most conserved elements-likely reflecting purifying selection. Our study highlights how DNA transposons are integral to the evolution of bat and human genomes, and has implications for the development of DNA transposon assays for gene therapy and mutagenesis applications.

A five-year study of particulate matter (PM2.5) and cerebrovascular diseases.

Cerebrovascular accidents, or strokes, are the second leading cause of mortality and the leading cause of morbidity in both Chile and the rest of the world. However, the relationship between particulate matter pollution and strokes is not well characterized. The association between fine particle concentration and stroke admissions was studied. Data on hospital admissions due to cerebrovascular accidents were collected from the Ministry of Health. Air quality and meteorological data were taken from the Air Quality database of the Santiago Metropolitan Area. Santiago reported 33,624 stroke admissions between January 1, 2002 and December 30, 2006. PM2.5 concentration was markedly seasonal, increasing during the winter. This study found an association between PM2.5 exposure and hospital admissions for stroke; for every PM2.5 concentration increase of 10 µg m(-3), the risk of emergency hospital admissions for cerebrovascular causes increased by 1.29% (95% CI 0.552%-2.03%).

Fatores associados com a mortalidade por suicídio de idosos nos municípios brasileiros no período de 2005-2007 / Factors associated with suicide mortality among the elderly in Brazilian municipalities between 2005 and 2007

Este trabalho teve como objetivo realizar análise ecológica sobre suicídio de pessoas com 60 anos ou mais nos municípios brasileiros no triênio 2005-2007, investigando-se fatores associados ao evento. Foram utilizados dados referentes aos óbitos por suicídio extraídos do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM), códigos X60 a X86 e Y87.0 (CID-10). Foram ajustados modelos de regressão de Poisson, binomial negativa e binomial negativa inflacionada de zeros (ZINB). Este último exibiu os melhores resultados quando da comparação de modelos. Foram identificados como fatores associados ao suicídio: proporção de não brancos (associação negativa), taxa de internação por transtornos de humor (associação positiva) e razão de sexo (associação negativa).

This scope of this paper was to conduct an ecological analysis of suicide mortality of people aged 60 years or more in Brazilian municipalities between 2005 and 2007, by investigating factors associated with the event. Data on suicide deaths were extracted from the Mortality Information System, codes X60 to X86 and Y87.0 (ICD-10). Poisson, negative binomial and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression models were adjusted. The latter exhibited the best results when comparing models. The proportion of non-whites (negative association), the rate of hospitalization for mood disorders (positive association) and sex ratio (negative association) were identified as factors associated with suicide.

Clustering of psychiatric and somatic illnesses in the general population: multimorbidity and socioeconomic correlates

The distribution of psychiatric disorders and of chronic medical illnesses was studied in a population-based sample to determine whether these conditions co-occur in the same individual. A representative sample (N = 1464) of adults living in households was assessed by the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, version 1.1, as part of the São Paulo Epidemiological Catchment Area Study. The association of sociodemographic variables and psychological symptoms regarding medical illness multimorbidity (8 lifetime somatic conditions) and psychiatric multimorbidity (15 lifetime psychiatric disorders) was determined by negative binomial regression. A total of 1785 chronic medical conditions and 1163 psychiatric conditions were detected in the population concentrated in 34.1 and 20 percent of respondents, respectively. Subjects reporting more psychiatric disorders had more medical illnesses. Characteristics such as age range (35-59 years, risk ratio (RR) = 1.3, and more than 60 years, RR = 1.7), being separated (RR = 1.2), being a student (protective effect, RR = 0.7), being of low educational level (RR = 1.2) and being psychologically distressed (RR = 1.1) were determinants of medical conditions. Age (35-59 years, RR = 1.2, and more than 60 years, RR = 0.5), being retired (RR = 2.5), and being psychologically distressed (females, RR = 1.5, and males, RR = 1.4) were determinants of psychiatric disorders. In conclusion, psychological distress and some sociodemographic features such as age, marital status, occupational status, educational level, and gender are associated with psychiatric and medical multimorbidity. The distribution of both types of morbidity suggests the need of integrating mental health into general clinical settings.