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1.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 17676, 2024 Jul 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39085267

ABSTRACT

This paper proposes a transformer fault diagnosis method based on ACGAN and CGWO-LSSVM to address the problem of misjudgment and low diagnostic accuracy caused by the small number and uneven distribution of some fault samples in transformer fault diagnosis. Firstly, generate adversarial networks through auxiliary classification conditions, The ACGAN method expands a small and imbalanced number of samples to obtain balanced and expanded data; Secondly, the non coding ratio method is used to construct the characteristics of dissolved gases in oil, and kernel principal component analysis is used, KPCA method for feature fusion; Finally, using the improved cubic gray wolf optimization algorithm, CGWO for least square support vector machines, optimize the parameters of the LSSVM model and construct a transformer fault diagnosis model. The results show that the proposed method has a low false alarm rate and a diagnostic accuracy of 97.66%, compared to IGOA-LSSVM the IChOA-LSSVM and PSO-LSSVM methods improved accuracy by 0.12, 1.76, and 2.58%, respectively. This method has been proven to solve the problems of misjudgment and low diagnostic accuracy caused by small sample sizes and uneven distribution. It is suitable for multi classification fault diagnosis of transformer imbalanced datasets and is superior to other methods.

2.
Cell Rep Methods ; 4(7): 100817, 2024 Jul 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38981473

ABSTRACT

Deep-learning tools that extract prognostic factors derived from multi-omics data have recently contributed to individualized predictions of survival outcomes. However, the limited size of integrated omics-imaging-clinical datasets poses challenges. Here, we propose two biologically interpretable and robust deep-learning architectures for survival prediction of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients, learning simultaneously from computed tomography (CT) scan images, gene expression data, and clinical information. The proposed models integrate patient-specific clinical, transcriptomic, and imaging data and incorporate Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) and Reactome pathway information, adding biological knowledge within the learning process to extract prognostic gene biomarkers and molecular pathways. While both models accurately stratify patients in high- and low-risk groups when trained on a dataset of only 130 patients, introducing a cross-attention mechanism in a sparse autoencoder significantly improves the performance, highlighting tumor regions and NSCLC-related genes as potential biomarkers and thus offering a significant methodological advancement when learning from small imaging-omics-clinical samples.


Subject(s)
Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung , Deep Learning , Lung Neoplasms , Humans , Lung Neoplasms/genetics , Lung Neoplasms/diagnostic imaging , Lung Neoplasms/pathology , Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/genetics , Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/diagnostic imaging , Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/pathology , Tomography, X-Ray Computed/methods , Biomarkers, Tumor/genetics , Prognosis , Male , Female , Gene Expression Regulation, Neoplastic , Transcriptome
3.
Stat Med ; 43(21): 4027-4042, 2024 Sep 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38963080

ABSTRACT

Semiparametric probabilistic index models allow for the comparison of two groups of observations, whilst adjusting for covariates, thereby fitting nicely within the framework of generalized pairwise comparisons (GPC). As with most regression approaches in this setting, the limited amount of data results in invalid inference as the asymptotic normality assumption is not met. In addition, separation issues might arise when considering small samples. In this article, we show that the parameters of the probabilistic index model can be estimated using generalized estimating equations, for which adjustments exist that lead to estimators of the sandwich variance-covariance matrix with improved finite sample properties and that can deal with bias due to separation. In this way, appropriate inference can be performed as is shown through extensive simulation studies. The known relationships between the probabilistic index and other GPC statistics allow to also provide valid inference for example, the net treatment benefit or the success odds.


Subject(s)
Computer Simulation , Models, Statistical , Humans , Sample Size , Data Interpretation, Statistical , Bias
4.
PeerJ Comput Sci ; 10: e2073, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38855250

ABSTRACT

Metabolomics data has high-dimensional features and a small sample size, which is typical of high-dimensional small sample (HDSS) data. Too high a dimensionality leads to the curse of dimensionality, and too small a sample size tends to trigger overfitting, which poses a challenge to deeper mining in metabolomics. Feature selection is a valuable technique for effectively handling the challenges HDSS data poses. For the feature selection problem of HDSS data in metabolomics, a hybrid Max-Relevance and Min-Redundancy (mRMR) and multi-objective particle swarm feature selection method (MCMOPSO) is proposed. Experimental results using metabolomics data and various University of California, Irvine (UCI) public datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of MCMOPSO in selecting feature subsets with a limited number of high-quality features. MCMOPSO achieves this by efficiently eliminating irrelevant and redundant features, showcasing its efficacy. Therefore, MCMOPSO is a powerful approach for selecting features from high-dimensional metabolomics data with limited sample sizes.

5.
J Appl Stat ; 51(5): 809-825, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38524791

ABSTRACT

This article proposes a performance measure to evaluate the detection performance of a control chart with a given sampling strategy for finite or small samples sequence and prove that the CUSUM control chart with dynamic non-random control limit and a given sampling strategy can be optimal under the measure. Numerical simulations and real data for an earthquake are provided to illustrate that for different sampling strategies, the CUSUM chart will have different monitoring performance in change-point detection. Among the six sampling strategies that take only a part of samples, the numerical comparing results illustrate that the uniform sampling strategy (uniformly dispersed sampling strategy) has the best monitoring effect.

6.
Behav Res Methods ; 56(6): 5930-5946, 2024 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38321272

ABSTRACT

Multilevel modeling (MLM) is commonly used in psychological research to model clustered data. However, data in applied research usually violate one of the essential assumptions of MLM-homogeneity of variance. While the fixed-effect estimates produced by the maximum likelihood method remain unbiased, the standard errors for the fixed effects are misestimated, resulting in inaccurate inferences and inflated or deflated type I error rates. To correct the bias in fixed effects standard errors and provide valid inferences, small-sample corrections such as the Kenward-Roger (KR) adjustment and the adjusted cluster-robust standard errors (CR-SEs) with the Satterthwaite approximation for t tests have been used. The current study compares KR with random slope (RS) models and the adjusted CR-SEs with ordinary least squares (OLS), random intercept (RI) and RS models to analyze small, heteroscedastic, clustered data using a Monte Carlo simulation. Results show the KR procedure with RS models has large biases and inflated type I error rates for between-cluster effects in the presence of level 2 heteroscedasticity. In contrast, the adjusted CR-SEs generally yield results with acceptable biases and maintain type I error rates close to the nominal level for all examined models. Thus, when the interest is only in within-cluster effect, any model with the adjusted CR-SEs could be used. However, when the interest is to make accurate inferences of the between-cluster effect, researchers should use the adjusted CR-SEs with RS to have higher power and guard against unmodeled heterogeneity. We reanalyzed an example in Snijders & Bosker (2012) to demonstrate the use of the adjusted CR-SEs with different models.


Subject(s)
Monte Carlo Method , Multilevel Analysis , Multilevel Analysis/methods , Humans , Cluster Analysis , Models, Statistical , Data Interpretation, Statistical , Computer Simulation , Bias , Sample Size , Likelihood Functions
7.
Educ Psychol Meas ; 83(5): 984-1006, 2023 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37663533

ABSTRACT

The part of responses that is absent in the nonequivalent groups with anchor test (NEAT) design can be managed to a planned missing scenario. In the context of small sample sizes, we present a machine learning (ML)-based imputation technique called chaining random forests (CRF) to perform equating tasks within the NEAT design. Specifically, seven CRF-based imputation equating methods are proposed based on different data augmentation methods. The equating performance of the proposed methods is examined through a simulation study. Five factors are considered: (a) test length (20, 30, 40, 50), (b) sample size per test form (50 versus 100), (c) ratio of common/anchor items (0.2 versus 0.3), and (d) equivalent versus nonequivalent groups taking the two forms (no mean difference versus a mean difference of 0.5), and (e) three different types of anchors (random, easy, and hard), resulting in 96 conditions. In addition, five traditional equating methods, (1) Tucker method; (2) Levine observed score method; (3) equipercentile equating method; (4) circle-arc method; and (5) concurrent calibration based on Rasch model, were also considered, plus seven CRF-based imputation equating methods for a total of 12 methods in this study. The findings suggest that benefiting from the advantages of ML techniques, CRF-based methods that incorporate the equating result of the Tucker method, such as IMP_total_Tucker, IMP_pair_Tucker, and IMP_Tucker_cirlce methods, can yield more robust and trustable estimates for the "missingness" in an equating task and therefore result in more accurate equated scores than other counterparts in short-length tests with small samples.

8.
Int J Biostat ; 19(1): 1-19, 2023 05 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35749155

ABSTRACT

It has been reported that about half of biological discoveries are irreproducible. These irreproducible discoveries were partially attributed to poor statistical power. The poor powers are majorly owned to small sample sizes. However, in molecular biology and medicine, due to the limit of biological resources and budget, most molecular biological experiments have been conducted with small samples. Two-sample t-test controls bias by using a degree of freedom. However, this also implicates that t-test has low power in small samples. A discovery found with low statistical power suggests that it has a poor reproducibility. So, promotion of statistical power is not a feasible way to enhance reproducibility in small-sample experiments. An alternative way is to reduce type I error rate. For doing so, a so-called t α -test was developed. Both theoretical analysis and simulation study demonstrate that t α -test much outperforms t-test. However, t α -test is reduced to t-test when sample sizes are over 15. Large-scale simulation studies and real experiment data show that t α -test significantly reduced type I error rate compared to t-test and Wilcoxon test in small-sample experiments. t α -test had almost the same empirical power with t-test. Null p-value density distribution explains why t α -test had so lower type I error rate than t-test. One real experimental dataset provides a typical example to show that t α -test outperforms t-test and a microarray dataset showed that t α -test had the best performance among five statistical methods. In addition, the density distribution and probability cumulative function of t α -statistic were given in mathematics and the theoretical and observed distributions are well matched.


Subject(s)
Models, Statistical , Reproducibility of Results , Computer Simulation , Likelihood Functions , Sample Size
9.
Front Plant Sci ; 13: 897883, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36420034

ABSTRACT

It is well known that crop classification is essential for genetic resources and phenotype development. Compared with traditional methods, convolutional neural networks can be utilized to identify features automatically. Nevertheless, crops and scenarios are quite complex, which makes it challenging to develop a universal classification method. Furthermore, manual design demands professional knowledge and is time-consuming and labor-intensive. In contrast, auto-search can create network architectures when faced with new species. Using rapeseed images for experiments, we collected eight types to build datasets (rapeseed dataset (RSDS)). In addition, we proposed a novel target-dependent search method based on VGGNet (target-dependent neural architecture search (TD-NAS)). The result shows that test accuracy does not differ significantly between small and large samples. Therefore, the influence of the dataset size on generalization is limited. Moreover, we used two additional open datasets (Pl@ntNet and ICL-Leaf) to test and prove the effectiveness of our method due to three notable features: (a) small sample sizes, (b) stable generalization, and (c) free of unpromising detections.

10.
Sensors (Basel) ; 22(22)2022 Nov 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36433480

ABSTRACT

Hyperspectral remote sensing images (HRSI) have the characteristics of foreign objects with the same spectrum. As it is difficult to label samples manually, the hyperspectral remote sensing images are understood to be typical "small sample" datasets. Deep neural networks can effectively extract the deep features from the HRSI, but the classification accuracy mainly depends on the training label samples. Therefore, the stacked convolutional autoencoder network and transfer learning strategy are employed in order to design a new stacked convolutional autoencoder network model transfer (SCAE-MT) for the purposes of classifying the HRSI in this paper. In the proposed classification method, the stacked convolutional au-to-encoding network is employed in order to effectively extract the deep features from the HRSI. Then, the transfer learning strategy is applied to design a stacked convolutional autoencoder network model transfer under the small and limited training samples. The SCAE-MT model is used to propose a new HRSI classification method in order to solve the small samples of the HRSI. In this study, in order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed classification method, two HRSI datasets were chosen. In order to verify the effectiveness of the methods, the overall classification accuracy (OA) of the convolutional self-coding network classification method (CAE), the stack convolutional self-coding network classification method (SCAE), and the SCAE-MT method under 5%, 10%, and 15% training sets are calculated. When compared with the CAE and SCAE models in 5%, 10%, and 15% training datasets, the overall accuracy (OA) of the SCAE-MT method was improved by 2.71%, 3.33%, and 3.07% (on average), respectively. The SCAE-MT method is, thus, clearly superior to the other methods and also shows a good classification performance.


Subject(s)
Hyperspectral Imaging , Neural Networks, Computer
11.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci ; 380(2232): 20210349, 2022 Sep 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35909357

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this paper is to show that brittle test samples give a huge size effect that can take several different forms depending on the sample geometry, crack position and mode of force application. Sometimes crack equilibrium force depends on sample dimension d or d1/2 and sometimes the force is independent of area, for example in peel or lap joint cracking. This big size effect arises from the potential energy term in the conservation theory, not considered by Griffith but dominating certain cracks. These examples illustrate the fact that strength of a brittle material containing a crack is an unsatisfactory concept because the cracks absorb surface energy driven by volume energy terms or by potential energy terms or a mixture of the two, leading to a disconnection between applied cracking force and sample cross-section area. The flaw statistics argument mentioned by Griffith is unnecessary, though strength can be affected in certain circumstances by the presence of random flaws. An unusually large size effect is shown experimentally for thermal shock of ceramic tubes, in which the cracking force increases as the cube of diameter goes down. This thermal shock resistance of fine tubes has proved important for application of ceramic fuel cells but cannot be explained by fracture mechanics theory at present. The conclusion is that experimental results show the Griffith energy criterion for cracking is correct whereas the Galilean stress criterion fails. The concept 'strength of brittle materials' is therefore untenable for most crack testing geometries. This article is part of the theme issue 'Nanocracks in nature and industry'.

12.
Educ Psychol Meas ; 82(4): 747-756, 2022 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35754613

ABSTRACT

Researchers frequently use Mokken scale analysis (MSA), which is a nonparametric approach to item response theory, when they have relatively small samples of examinees. Researchers have provided some guidance regarding the minimum sample size for applications of MSA under various conditions. However, these studies have not focused on item-level measurement problems, such as violations of monotonicity or invariant item ordering (IIO). Moreover, these studies have focused on problems that occur for a complete sample of examinees. The current study uses a simulation study to consider the sensitivity of MSA item analysis procedures to problematic item characteristics that occur within limited ranges of the latent variable. Results generally support the use of MSA with small samples (N around 100 examinees) as long as multiple indicators of item quality are considered.

13.
Int J Comput Assist Radiol Surg ; 17(7): 1235-1243, 2022 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35633492

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Computer-aided MRI analysis is helpful for early detection of Alzheimer's disease(AD). Recently, 3D convolutional neural networks(CNN) are widely used to analyse MRI images. However, 3D CNN requires huge memory cost. In this paper, we introduce cascaded CNN and long and short-term memory (LSTM) networks. We also use knowledge distillation to improve the accuracy of the model using small medical image dataset. METHODS: We propose a cascade structure, CNN-LSTM. CNN is used as the function of feature extraction, and LSTM is used as the classifier. In this way, the correlation between different slices can be considered and the calculation cost caused by 3D data can be reduced. To overcome the problem of limited image training data, transfer learning is a more reasonable way of feature extraction. We use the knowledge distillation algorithm to improve the performance of student models for AD diagnosis through a powerful teacher model to guide the work of student models. RESULTS: The accuracy of the proposed model is improved using knowledge distillation. The results show that the accuracy of the student models reached 85.96% after the guidance of the teacher models, an increase by 3.83%. CONCLUSION: We propose cascaded CNN-LSTM to classify 3D ADNI data, and use knowledge distillation to improve the model accuracy when trained with small size dataset. It can process 3D data efficiently as well as reduce the computational cost.


Subject(s)
Alzheimer Disease , Algorithms , Alzheimer Disease/diagnostic imaging , Early Diagnosis , Humans , Magnetic Resonance Imaging/methods , Neural Networks, Computer
14.
Comput Methods Programs Biomed ; 218: 106706, 2022 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35286872

ABSTRACT

Background and objectiveAt present, many achievements have been made in anomaly detection of big data using deep neural network, However, in many practical application scenarios, there are still some problems, such as shortage of data, too large workload of manual data annotating and so on. MethodsThis paper proposes weighted iForest and Siamese GRU (WIF-SGRU) algorithm on small sample anomaly detection. In the data annotation stage, we propose a weighted IForest algorithm for automatic annotation of unlabeled data. In the training phase of anomaly detection model, the Siamese GRU is proposed to train the target data to obtain the anomaly model and detect the real-time anomaly of small sample data. ResultsThe proposed algorithm is verified on six public datasets (Arrhythmia, Shuttle, Staellite, Sttimage-2, Lymphography, and WBC). The experimental results show that compared with the traditional data annotation and anomaly detection algorithm, the algorithm of weighted IForest and Siamese GRU improves the accuracy and real-time performance. ConclusionsThis paper proposes a weighted IForest and Siamese GRU algorithm architecture, which provides a more accurate and efficient method for outlier detection of data. Firstly, the framework uses the improved IForest algorithm to label the label-free data, Then the Siamese GRU is optimized by the improved FDAloss function,the optimized network is used to learn the distance between data for real-time and efficient anomaly detection. Experiments show that the framework has good potential.


Subject(s)
Algorithms , Neural Networks, Computer , Big Data , Delivery of Health Care
15.
BMC Med Res Methodol ; 22(1): 49, 2022 02 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35184739

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Clinical trial investigators may need to evaluate treatment effects in a specific subgroup (or subgroups) of participants in addition to reporting results of the entire study population. Such subgroups lack power to detect a treatment effect, but there may be strong justification for borrowing information from a larger patient group within the same trial, while allowing for differences between populations. Our aim was to develop methods for eliciting expert opinions about differences in treatment effect between patient populations, and to incorporate these opinions into a Bayesian analysis. METHODS: We used an interaction parameter to model the relationship between underlying treatment effects in two subgroups. Elicitation was used to obtain clinical opinions on the likely values of the interaction parameter, since this parameter is poorly informed by the data. Feedback was provided to experts to communicate how uncertainty about the interaction parameter corresponds with relative weights allocated to subgroups in the Bayesian analysis. The impact on the planned analysis was then determined. RESULTS: The methods were applied to an ongoing non-inferiority trial designed to compare antiretroviral therapy regimens in 707 children living with HIV and weighing ≥ 14 kg, with an additional group of 85 younger children weighing < 14 kg in whom the treatment effect will be estimated separately. Expert clinical opinion was elicited and demonstrated that substantial borrowing is supported. Clinical experts chose on average to allocate a relative weight of 78% (reduced from 90% based on sample size) to data from children weighing ≥ 14 kg in a Bayesian analysis of the children weighing < 14 kg. The total effective sample size in the Bayesian analysis was 386 children, providing 84% predictive power to exclude a difference of more than 10% between arms, whereas the 85 younger children weighing < 14 kg provided only 20% power in a standalone frequentist analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Borrowing information from a larger subgroup or subgroups can facilitate estimation of treatment effects in small subgroups within a clinical trial, leading to improved power and precision. Informative prior distributions for interaction parameters are required to inform the degree of borrowing and can be informed by expert opinion. We demonstrated accessible methods for obtaining opinions.


Subject(s)
Expert Testimony , Bayes Theorem , Child , Clinical Trials as Topic , Humans , Sample Size , Uncertainty
16.
BMC Med Res Methodol ; 21(1): 256, 2021 11 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34809559

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Propensity score matching is a statistical method that is often used to make inferences on the treatment effects in observational studies. In recent years, there has been widespread use of the technique in the cardiothoracic surgery literature to evaluate to potential benefits of new surgical therapies or procedures. However, the small sample size and the strong dependence of the treatment assignment on the baseline covariates that often characterize these studies make such an evaluation challenging from a statistical point of view. In such settings, the use of propensity score matching in combination with oversampling and replacement may provide a solution to these issues by increasing the initial sample size of the study and thus improving the statistical power that is needed to detect the effect of interest. In this study, we review the use of propensity score matching in combination with oversampling and replacement in small sample size settings. METHODS: We performed a series of Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate how the sample size, the proportion of treated, and the assignment mechanism affect the performances of the proposed approaches. We assessed the performances with overall balance, relative bias, root mean squared error and nominal coverage. Moreover, we illustrate the methods using a real case study from the cardiac surgery literature. RESULTS: Matching without replacement produced estimates with lower bias and better nominal coverage than matching with replacement when 1:1 matching was considered. In contrast to that, matching with replacement showed better balance, relative bias, and root mean squared error than matching without replacement for increasing levels of oversampling. The best nominal coverage was obtained by using the estimator that accounts for uncertainty in the matching procedure on sets of units obtained after matching with replacement. CONCLUSIONS: The use of replacement provides the most reliable treatment effect estimates and that no more than 1 or 2 units from the control group should be matched to each treated observation. Moreover, the variance estimator that accounts for the uncertainty in the matching procedure should be used to estimate the treatment effect.


Subject(s)
Propensity Score , Bias , Humans , Monte Carlo Method , Sample Size
17.
Cancers (Basel) ; 13(21)2021 Oct 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34771590

ABSTRACT

Pediatric oncology is a critical area where the more efficient development of new treatments is urgently needed. The speed of approval of new drugs is still limited by regulatory requirements and a lack of innovative designs appropriate for trials in children. Childhood cancers meet the criteria of rare diseases. Personalized medicine brings it even closer to the horizon of individual cases. Thus, not all the traditional research tools, such as large-scale RCTs, are always suitable or even applicable, mainly due to limited sample sizes. Small samples and traditional versus subject-specific evidence are both distinctive issues in personalized pediatric oncology. Modern analytical approaches and adaptations of the paradigms of evidence are warranted. We have reviewed innovative trial designs and analytical methods developed for small populations, together with individualized approaches, given their applicability to pediatric oncology. We discuss traditional population-based and individualized perspectives of inferences and evidence, and explain the possibilities of using various methods in pediatric personalized oncology. We find that specific derivatives of the original N-of-1 trial design adapted for pediatric personalized oncology may represent an optimal analytical tool for this area of medicine. We conclude that no particular N-of-1 strategy can provide a solution. Rather, a whole range of approaches is needed to satisfy the new inferential and analytical paradigms of modern medicine. We reveal a new view of cancer as continuum model and discuss the "evidence puzzle".

18.
Genet Epidemiol ; 45(8): 821-829, 2021 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34402542

ABSTRACT

Many methods for rare variant association studies require permutations to assess the significance of tests. Standard permutations assume that all individuals are exchangeable and do not take population stratification (PS), a known confounding factor in genetic studies, into account. We propose a novel strategy, LocPerm, in which individual phenotypes are permuted only with their closest ancestry-based neighbors. We performed a simulation study, focusing on small samples, to evaluate and compare LocPerm with standard permutations and classical adjustment on first principal components. Under the null hypothesis, LocPerm was the only method providing an acceptable type I error, regardless of sample size and level of stratification. The power of LocPerm was similar to that of standard permutation in the absence of PS, and remained stable in different PS scenarios. We conclude that LocPerm is a method of choice for taking PS and/or small sample size into account in rare variant association studies.


Subject(s)
Genetics, Population , Models, Genetic , Computer Simulation , Genetic Association Studies , Humans , Sample Size
19.
Stat Med ; 40(24): 5276-5297, 2021 10 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34219258

ABSTRACT

Meta-analysis of rare event data has recently received increasing attention due to the challenging issues rare events pose to traditional meta-analytic methods. One specific way to combine information and analyze rare event meta-analysis data utilizes confidence distributions (CDs). While several CD methods exist, no comparisons have been made to determine which method is best suited for homogeneous or heterogeneous meta-analyses with rare events. In this article, we review several CD methods: Fisher's classic P-value combination method, one that combines P-value functions, another that combines confidence intervals, and one that combines confidence log-likelihood functions. We compare these CD approaches, and we propose and compare variations of these methods to determine which method produces reliable results for homogeneous or heterogeneous rare event meta-analyses. We find that for homogeneous rare event data, most CD methods perform very well. On the other hand, for heterogeneous rare event data, there is a clear split in performance between some CD methods, with some performing very poorly and others performing reasonably well.


Subject(s)
Research Design , Humans , Likelihood Functions
20.
Trends Cogn Sci ; 25(10): 819-820, 2021 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34330661

ABSTRACT

Choice prediction competitions suggest that popular models of choice, including prospect theory, have low predictive accuracy. Peterson et al. show the key problem lies in assuming each alternative is evaluated in isolation, independently of the context. This observation demonstrates how a focus on predictions can promote understanding of cognitive processes.

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