Ecohydrological assessment of the water balance of the world's highest elevation tropical forest (Polylepis).

Polylepis trees grow at elevations above the continuous tree line (3000-5000 m a.s.l.) across the Andes. They tolerate extreme environmental conditions, making them sensitive bioindicators of global climate change. Therefore, investigating their ecohydrological role is key to understanding how the water cycle of Andean headwaters could be affected by predicted changes in environmental conditions, as well as ongoing Polylepis reforestation initiatives in the region. We estimate, for the first time, the annual water balance of a mature Polylepis forest (Polylepis reticulata) catchment (3780 m a.s.l.) located in the south Ecuadorian páramo using a unique set of field ecohydrological measurements including gross rainfall, throughfall, streamflow, and xylem sap flow in combination with the characterization of forest and soil features. We also compare the forest water balance with that of a tussock grass (Calamagrostis intermedia) catchment, the dominant páramo vegetation. Annual gross rainfall during the study period (April 2019-March 2020) was 1290.6 mm yr-1. Throughfall in the Polylepis forest represented 61.2 % of annual gross rainfall. Streamflow was the main component of the water balance of the forested site (59.6 %), while its change in soil water storage was negligible (<1 %). Forest evapotranspiration was 54.0 %, with evaporation from canopy interception (38.8 %) more than twice as high as transpiration (15.1 %). The error in the annual water balance of the Polylepis catchment was small (<15 %), providing confidence in the measurements and assumptions used to estimate its components. In comparison, streamflow and evapotranspiration at the grassland site accounted for 63.7 and 36.0 % of the water balance, respectively. Although evapotranspiration was larger in the forest catchment, its water yield was only marginally reduced (<4 %) in relation to the grassland catchment. The substantially higher soil organic matter content in the forest site (47.6 %) compared to the grassland site (31.8 %) suggests that even though Polylepis forests do not impair the hydrological function of high-Andean catchments, their presence contributes to carbon storage in the litter layer of the forest and the underlying soil. These findings provide key insights into the vegetation-water­carbon nexus in high Andean ecosystems, which can serve as a basis for future ecohydrological studies and improved management of páramo natural resources considering changes in land use and global climate.

Do non-linearity and non-Gaussianity truly matter in streamflow forecasting? A comparative study between PAR(p) and vine copula for Brazilian streamflow time series.

This study evaluates the joint impact of non-linearity and non-Gaussianity on predictive performance in 23 Brazilian monthly streamflow time series from 1931 to 2022. We consider point and interval forecasting, employing a PAR(p) model and comparing it with the periodic vine copula model. Results indicate that the Gaussian hypothesis assumed by PAR(p) is unsuitable; gamma and log-normal distributions prove more appropriate and crucial for constructing accurate confidence intervals. This is primarily due to the assumption of the Gaussian distribution, which can lead to the generation of confidence intervals with negative values. Analyzing the estimated copula models, we observed a prevalence of the bivariate Normal copula, indicating that linear dynamic dependence is frequent, and the Rotated Gumbel 180°, which exhibits lower tail dependence. Overall, the temporal dynamics are predominantly shaped by combining these two types of effects. In point forecasting, both models show similar behavior in the estimation set, with slight advantages for the copula model. The copula model performs better during the out-of-sample analysis, particularly for certain power plants. In interval forecasting, the copula model exhibits pronounced superiority, offering a better estimation of quantiles. Consistently demonstrating proficiency in constructing reliable and accurate intervals, the copula model reveals a notable advantage over the PAR(p) model in interval forecasting.

Daily Streamflow of Argentine Rivers Analysis Using Information Theory Quantifiers.

This paper analyzes the temporal evolution of streamflow for different rivers in Argentina based on information quantifiers such as statistical complexity and permutation entropy. The main objective is to identify key details of the dynamics of the analyzed time series to differentiate the degrees of randomness and chaos. The permutation entropy is used with the probability distribution of ordinal patterns and the Jensen-Shannon divergence to calculate the disequilibrium and the statistical complexity. Daily streamflow series at different river stations were analyzed to classify the different hydrological systems. The complexity-entropy causality plane (CECP) and the representation of the Shannon entropy and Fisher information measure (FIM) show that the daily discharge series could be approximately represented with Gaussian noise, but the variances highlight the difficulty of modeling a series of natural phenomena. An analysis of stations downstream from the Yacyretá dam shows that the operation affects the randomness of the daily discharge series at hydrometric stations near the dam. When the station is further downstream, however, this effect is attenuated. Furthermore, the size of the basin plays a relevant role in modulating the process. Large catchments have smaller values for entropy, and the signal is less noisy due to integration over larger time scales. In contrast, small and mountainous basins present a rapid response that influences the behavior of daily discharge while presenting a higher entropy and lower complexity. The results obtained in the present study characterize the behavior of the daily discharge series in Argentine rivers and provide key information for hydrological modeling.

Assessment of the changes in contributions from water sources to streamflow induced by urbanization in a small-sized catchment in Southeastern Brazil using the dual stable isotopes of water (18O and 2H).

Urban growth often results in changes in the urban hydrological cycle, causing impacts on water availability in densely populated regions. The water isotopologues can provide relevant information about the origin of water under different hydrogeological scenarios, aiding to implement better strategies for water conservation in coupled natural-urbanized environments. In this study, the isotopic compositions of multiple water sources were assessed in a pristine (Ipanema National Forest, FLONA) and an urbanized (Lavapés catchment, SOR) watershed located in the Sorocaba River basin (State of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil), seeking to understand the causes of isotopic variability and to determine the relative contribution from different sources to streamflow, using the Bayesian mixing model approach. Differences in isotopic composition were observed, as FLONA yielded the most depleted water (ca. -7.5 ‰ [Formula: see text]18O for surface and groundwater and ca. + 11.0 ‰ d-excess), while SOR yielded the most enriched water (ca. -5.5‰ [Formula: see text]18O for surface and groundwater and -3.8‰ [Formula: see text]18O for the water supply system), with evidence of evaporation (ca. + 8.2 ‰ d-excess). The differences observed in isotopic compositions are related to a combination of different factors, such as geological framework, groundwater recharge, and evaporation associated with the Itupararanga water reservoir. Both in FLONA and SOR, groundwater discharge is the most important factor that regulates streamflow. However, in SOR, losses from the water supply system were almost constant along the year, representing an important contribution. The results presented here highlight the use of isotope hydrology techniques to solve problems related to urban hydrology.

Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on streamflow through hydrological simulation and under downscaling scenarios: case study in a watershed in southeastern Brazil.

Among the problems related to water security, the effects of climate change on water availability stand out. Researchers have used hydrological models integrated with climate models in order to predict the streamflow behaviour in different hydrographic basins. This work aimed to analyse future climate scenarios for the Ribeirão do Lobo River Basin, located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R was used in the simulation of climate data, which were used as input data in the hydrological model SMAP, after it was calibrated and validated for the study site. In all, five future scenarios were generated, with scenarios A, B, C and D projected based on the 5th report of the IPCC and scenario E based on the trend of climate data in the region. Among the scenarios generated, scenario D, which considers an increase of 4.8 °C in air temperature and a reduction of 10% in rainfall, is responsible for the worst water condition in the basin and can reduce up to 72.41% of the average flow and up to 55.50%, 54.18% and 38.17% of the low flow parameters Q90%, Q95% and Q7,10, respectively, until the end of the twenty-first century. However, the E scenario also becomes a matter of concern, since it was responsible for greater increases in temperature and greater reductions in rainfall and, consequently, more drastic monthly reductions in streamflow, which may negatively impact water resources and affect the various uses of water in the Ribeirão do Lobo River Basin.

Total organic carbon concentrations in ecosystem solutions of a remote tropical montane forest respond to global environmental change.

The response of organic carbon (C) concentrations in ecosystem solutions to environmental change affects the release of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from forests to surface and groundwaters. We determined the total organic C (TOC) concentrations (filtered <1-7 µm) and the ratios of TOC/dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) concentrations, electrical conductivity (EC), and pH in all major ecosystem solutions of a tropical montane forest from 1998 to 2013. The forest was located on the rim of the Amazon basin in Ecuador and experienced increasing numbers of days with >25°C, decreasing soil moisture, and rising nitrogen (N) deposition from the atmosphere during the study period. In rainfall, throughfall, mineral soil solutions (at the 0.15- and 0.30-m depths), and streamflow, TOC concentrations and fluxes decreased significantly from 1998 to 2013, while they increased in stemflow. TOC/DON ratios decreased significantly in rainfall, throughfall, soil solution at the 0.15-m depth, and streamflow. Based on Δ14 C values, the TOC in rainfall and mineral soil solutions was 1 year old and that of litter leachate was 10 years old. The pH in litter leachate decreased with time, that in mineral soil solutions increased, while those in the other ecosystem solutions did not change. Thus, reduced TOC solubility because of lower pH values cannot explain the negative trends in TOC concentrations in most ecosystem solutions. The increasing TOC concentrations and EC in stemflow pointed at an increased leaching of TOC and other ions from the bark. Our results suggest an accelerated degradation of DOM, particularly of young DOM, associated with the production of N-rich compounds simultaneously to changing climatic conditions and increasing N availability. Thus, environmental change increased the CO2 release to the atmosphere but reduced DOM export to surface and groundwater.

Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability.

By the end of this century higher temperatures and significantly reduced rainfall are projected for the Brazilian North and Northeast (NE) regions due to Global Warming. This study examines the impact of these long-term rainfall changes on the Brazilian Northeast's hydroelectric production. Various studies that use different IPCC models are examined in order to determine the average rainfall reduction by the year 2100 in comparison to baseline data from the end of the 20th century. It was found that average annual rainfall in the NE region could decrease by approximately 25-50% depending on the emissions scenario. Analysis of historical rainfall data in the São Francisco basin during the last 57years already shows a decline of more than 25% from the 1961-90 long-term average. Moreover, average annual rainfall in the basin has been below its long-term average every year bar one since 1992. If this declining trend continues, rainfall reduction in the basin could be even more severe than the most pessimistic model projections. That is, the marked drop in average rainfall projected for 2100, based on the IPCC high emissions scenario, could actually eventuate before 2050. Due to the elasticity factor between rainfall and streamflow and because of increased amounts of irrigation in the São Francisco basin, the reduction in the NE's average hydroelectric production in the coming decades could be double the predicted decline in rainfall. Conversely, it is estimated that wind power potential in the Brazilian NE will increase substantially by 2100. Therefore both wind and solar power will need to be significantly exploited in order for the NE region to sustainably replace lost hydroelectric production.

Nonannual tree rings in a climate-sensitive Prioria copaifera chronology in the Atrato River, Colombia.

In temperate climates, tree growth dormancy usually ensures the annual nature of tree rings, but in tropical environments, determination of annual periodicity can be more complex. The purposes of the work are as follows: (1) to generate a reliable tree-ring width chronology for Prioria copaifera Griseb. (Leguminoceae), a tropical tree species dwelling in the Atrato River floodplains, Colombia; (2) to assess the climate signal recorded by the tree-ring records; and (3) to validate the annual periodicity of the tree rings using independent methods. We used standard dendrochronological procedures to generate the P. copaifera tree-ring chronology. We used Pearson correlations to evaluate the relationship of the chronology with the meteorological records, climate regional indices, and gridded precipitation/sea surface temperature products. We also evaluated 24 high-precision 14C measurements spread over a range of preselected tree rings, with assigned calendar years by dendrochronological techniques, before and after the bomb spike in order to validate the annual nature of the tree rings. The tree-ring width chronology was statistically reliable, and it correlated significantly with local records of annual and October-December (OND) streamflow and precipitation across the upper river watershed (positive), and OND temperature (negative). It was also significantly related to the Oceanic Niño Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Southern Oscillation Index, as well as sea surface temperatures over the Caribbean and the Pacific region. However, 14C high-precision measurements over the tree rings demonstrated offsets of up to 40 years that indicate that P. copaifera can produce more than one ring in certain years. Results derived from the strongest climate-growth relationship during the most recent years of the record suggest that the climatic signal reported may be due to the presence of annual rings in some of those trees in recent years. Our study alerts about the risk of applying dendrochronology in species with challenging anatomical features defining tree rings, commonly found in the tropics, without an independent validation of annual periodicity of tree rings. High-precision 14C measurements in multiple trees are a useful method to validate the identification of annual tree rings.

Trends in Mean Annual Streamflows in Serra da Mantiqueira Environmental Protection Area

The aim of this study was to detect trends in the mean annual streamflow in watersheds of Serra da Mantiqueira Environmental Protection Area, an important Brazilian conservation area located between Minas Gerais, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro States. Historical series of four selected streamgage stations were analyzed for the periods of 1980-1998 and 1980-2009, using the Mann-Kendall and Regional Mann-Kendall tests. The results showed that the mean annual streamflows of Serra da Mantiqueira Environmental Protection Area watersheds did not change during the complete period of 1980-2009. The tests detected statistically significant trends of reduction of mean annual streamflow during the 1980-1998 period. The confrontation of this result with the inexistence of rainfall trends during the same period suggested that the streamflow changes detected were consequences of changes in the watersheds physical characteristics, and/or increases in water abstraction for multiple uses.

Relações entre diversidade íctia e fatores hidrodinâmicos de um riacho na bacia do rio Uruguai / Relationship between ichthyofaunal diversity and hydrodynamic factors in a stream of Uruguay river basin

Physical, chemical and environmental factors in watercourses can exert influence on the structure and diversity of species of aquatic biota. Among the physical factors there are hydrodynamic conditions. Disposal variations result into complex dynamics of fish populations and communities. This study aims at assessing the correlation between hydrodynamic variables in the Fortaleza stream, affluent of Uruguay River, and species diversity. The methodology included the collection of hydrodynamic (average depth of the water column, average water flow speed and discharged water in the pluvial metric section) and biological (fish collection in the areas of influence on pluvial metric sections) data. Shannon diversity indices, equitability and the similarity index were calculated with biological data. It has been collected a sample with 527 fishes. There were 25 species, being 4 exotic ones and 4 species not-yet-classified. Such species included 4 orders, 7 families and 13 genera classified. The Shannon index ranged from 1.43 to 2.68 nats/individual. The equitability index was always above 0.8 indicating that individuals are well distributed among different species. The similarity index of Jaccard ranged between 20 and 80%. The lowest figures were obtained from the sample area located near the source. The correlations between the Shannon index and hydrodynamic features resulted in R² coefficients ranging between 0.59 and 0.83. These results show that diversity of species is influenced by the hydrodynamic characteristics. Nevertheless, either depth of water column or discharge average speed is not significant enough to explain the spatial variability of the diversity of species.

Fatores físicos, químicos e ambientais em um curso de água podem influenciar a estrutura e a diversidade das espécies da biota aquática. Entre os fatores físicos têm-se as condições hidrodinâmicas. Variações do escoamento resultam em dinâmicas complexas das populações e comunidades de peixes. Este trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar as correlações entre as variáveis hidrodinâmicas no Arroio Fortaleza, afluente do rio Uruguai, e a diversidade das espécies. A metodologia compreendeu a coleta de dados hidrodinâmicos (profundidade média da coluna de água, velocidade média do escoamento e vazão escoada na seção fluviométrica) e biológicos (coleta de peixes nas áreas de influência das seções fluviométricas). Com os dados biológicos foram calculados os seguintes índices: o de diversidade de Shannon, o de equitabilidade e o de similaridade. Coletaram-se 527 exemplares, de 25 espécies, dentre elas 4 exóticas e 4 ainda não classificadas. Essas 25 espécies estão classificadas em 4 ordens, 7 famílias e 13 gêneros. O índice de Shannon variou entre 1,43 e 2,68 nats/indivíduo. O índice de equitabilidade foi sempre superior a 0,8, indicando que os indivíduos estão bem distribuídos entre as diferentes espécies. O índice de similaridade de Jaccard variou entre 20 e 80%. Os menores valores foram obtidos para a área amostral situada próximo da nascente. As correlações entre o índice de Shannon e as características hidrodinâmicas resultaram em coeficientes R² variando entre 0,59 e 0,83. Estes resultados evidenciam que a diversidade das espécies é influenciada pelas características hidrodinâmicas. No entanto, a profundidade da coluna de água ou a velocidade média do escoamento não são suficientemente significativas para explicar a variabilidade espacial da diversidade das espécies isoladamente.

Água e mudanças climáticas

O presente documento constitui uma revisão do estado da arte do conhecimento sobre mudanças de clima e água no Brasil e na América do Sul. Discutem-se alguns dos resultados dos estudos do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) e do Relatório de Clima do Inpe em relação a estudos obervacionais de variabilidade de clima e projeções de clima e das componentes do ciclo hidrológico até finais do século XXI, para as principais bacias hidrográficas no continente. Um dos aspectos importantes discutidos neste informe refere-se aos aspectos econômico e gerencial do recurso água nas diferentes regiões do Brasil, e como isso pode mudar num cenário de mudanças de clima.