Evaluating the Utility of the Surprise Question Among General Physicians for Appropriate Palliative Care Indication in Brazil.

Objectives: This study aimed to assess the agreement between established tools, such as the Palliative Performance Scale (PPS) and Brazilian version of the Supportive and Palliative Care Indicators Tool (SPICT-BR), and the subjective assessment of palliative care (PC) need using the Surprise Question (SQ) administered by resident physicians. This assessment was conducted among hospitalized patients, with and without cancer, to determine the efficacy of these tools in indicating the need for PC. Methods: A six-month cross-sectional study in 2019 of medical records of patients hospitalized in a single center in IAMSPE-Brazil. The SPICT-BR and PPS were applied to the medical record data, and the SQ was posed to each resident physician. Comparisons for categorical data were made using the chi-square test, with p < 0.05 considered statistically significant. Results: Of 203 patients evaluated, 57.6% were male and 81.2% were older adults (≥60 years). The mean age was 67.40 ± 9.72 years. Chronic disease was nonneoplastic in 78.32% of patients, and 56.65% had not been hospitalized in the preceding year. The PPS score was <70% in 69.4% of patients, and 51.2% met at least one SPICT-BR criterion. Among patients with cancer, 40.9% had over two positive SPICT-BR criteria; 97.5% of these patients received NO responses to SQ by residents (p < 0.0001). Similarly, 90.6% of patients with one SPICT-BR criterion received NO responses to SQ, with no significant difference between groups. Conclusion: The SQ proved to be a valuable tool for PC indication, particularly when administered by untrained professionals. Consistent with SPICT-BR findings, our study highlights the SQ's role in facilitating early identification of patients in need of PC.

The applicability of the "surprise question" as a prognostic tool in patients with severe chronic comorbidities in a university teaching outpatient setting.

BACKGROUND: Life expectancy in recent decades has increased the prevalence of chronic diseases in the population, requiring an approach to new health topics, such as discussions on quality of life and expectations about death and dying. The concept of advance directives (ADs) gives individuals the opportunity to make known their decisions about the treatments they would like to receive at the end of life. Despite the recognition of relevance in clinical practice, the applicability of the concept presents challenges, including establishing the appropriate prognosis for each patient and the ideal time to approach the patient. Some prognostic tools were developed, such as the surprise question (SQ): "Would you be surprised if your patient died in 12 months?", which is used in some clinical settings to predict patient deaths and to make decisions regarding ADs. The main objective of the present study was to evaluate the behavior of second-year resident physicians (PGY-2) when the SQ was applied. METHOD: In our observational study, from July 1, 2016, to February 28, 2017, (PGY-2) in the Internal Medicine Residency Program (IMRP) applied SQ to all patients with multiple and varied chronic no communicable comorbidities, who were followed up at the general medicine outpatient clinic (GMOC) of a tertiary university hospital in São Paulo- Brazil. The frequency of the outcome (death or non-death within 12 months) was analyzed by correlating it with the clinical data (impact of the studied variables). RESULTS: Eight hundred forty patients entered the study. Fitfty-two of them (6.2%) died within one year. PGY-2 predicted that two hundred and fourteen patients (25.5% of total) would die within a year (answer No to SQ), of which, 32 (14.9%) did so. The correct residents' prognosis for the subgroup of 626 patients (answer "Yes" to SQ) was NPV = 96.8% (CI = 95.4%-98.2%) and PPV = 14.9% (CI 10.1%-19, 6%). Answering "Yes" to SQ correlated negatively to addressing AD while the outcomes death and the answer No to SQ were positively correlated, according to the number of comorbidities. CONCLUSION: The SQ, in addition to care, contributed to health education, communication and care planning shared by the doctor and patient.

Palliative Care in Advanced Alzheimer's Disease Dementia: Evaluation of the Answers Given by Caregivers and Physicians to the Accuracy of Surprise Question, as a Prognostic Tool.

Introduction: Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia is the sixth leading cause of death in the United States. The surprise question (SQ) "Would you be surprised if this patient were to die within the next 12 months?" was used to identify death-risk patients, who could benefit from palliative care. Objective: To examine the prognostic accuracy of the SQ by physicians and caregivers in outpatients with AD dementia. Methods: This is a longitudinal and prospective study involving 101 patients along 1 year, applying the SAS 9.2 software and adopting a .05 P-value to assess the variables that influenced answers to the accuracy of SQ using the chi-square test. Results: 27 patients (26.7%) died during the follow-up. When caregivers answered the SQ, it presented a 51.8% sensitivity (CI 31.9 - 71.3), a 66.7% negative predictive value (20.7 - 63.6), a 56.2% specificity (CI 29.8 - 80.2), and a 40.9% positive predictive value of (CI 43.0 - 85.4) with a 53.4% accuracy (CI 38.5 - 68.4). When physicians answered, the SQ had an 88.8% sensitivity (CI 70.8 - 97.6), a 40% negative predictive value (CI 5.2 - 85.3), a 12.5% specificity (CI 1.5 - 38.3), a 63.1% positive predictive value (CI 45.9 - 78.1) with a 60.4% accuracy (CI 45.8 - 75). Conclusion: SQ remains a good tool with high sensitivity for the identification of patients with advanced AD dementia when presented to the attending physician for planning palliative advanced care with accuracy of 60.4% and caregivers' accuracy of 53.4%.