Enhanced predictive modeling of dissolved oxygen concentrations in riverine systems using novel hybrid temporal pattern attention deep neural networks.

Monitoring water quality and river ecosystems is vital for maintaining public health and environmental sustainability. Over the past decade, data-driven methods have been extensively used for river water quality modeling, including dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations. Despite advancements, challenges persist regarding accuracy, scalability, and adaptability of data-driven models to diverse environmental conditions. Previous studies primarily employed singular models or basic combinations of machine learning techniques, lacking advanced integration of adaptive mechanisms to process complex and evolving datasets. The current study introduces innovative hybrid models that integrate temporal pattern attention (TPA) mechanisms with advanced neural networks, including feed-forward neural networks (FFNNs) and long short-term memory networks (LSTMs). This approach leverages the synergistic strengths of individual models, significantly enhancing the accuracy of DO predictions. The models were rigorously tested against water quality data obtained from two distinct riverine environments, the Illinois River (ILL) and Des Plaines River (DP). Daily measured water quality data, including DO, chlorophyll-a, nitrate plus nitrite, water temperature, specific conductance, and pH, from 2017 to 2024 provided a robust foundation for comprehensive analysis of DO dynamics in these rivers. We conducted 10 scenarios with different model inputs, wherein the hybrid TPACWRNN-LSTM-10 model particularly excelled, achieving coefficient of determination values of 0.993 and 0.965, and root mean squared errors of 0.241 mg/L and 0.450 mg/L for DO predictions at the ILL and DP stations, respectively. The model's reliability was further confirmed by Willmott's index values of 0.998 and 0.992 and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.990 and 0.961 at the ILL and DP stations, respectively. Additionally, Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) values were utilized to interpret each predictor's contribution, revealing key drivers of DO predictions. We believe the novel hybrid modeling approach presented in this study could benefit utilities and water resource management systems for predicting water quality in complex systems.

A hybrid approach to improvement of watershed water quality modeling by coupling process-based and deep learning models.

Watershed water quality modeling to predict changing water quality is an essential tool for devising effective management strategies within watersheds. Process-based models (PBMs) are typically used to simulate water quality modeling. In watershed modeling utilizing PBMs, it is crucial to effectively reflect the actual watershed conditions by appropriately setting the model parameters. However, parameter calibration and validation are time-consuming processes with inherent uncertainties. Addressing these challenges, this research aims to address various challenges encountered in the calibration and validation processes of PBMs. To achieve this, the development of a hybrid model, combining uncalibrated PBMs with data-driven models (DDMs) such as deep learning algorithms is proposed. This hybrid model is intended to enhance watershed modeling by integrating the strengths of both PBMs and DDMs. The hybrid model is constructed by coupling an uncalibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). SWAT, a representative PBM, is constructed using geographical information and 5-year observed data from the Yeongsan River Watershed. The output variables of the uncalibrated SWAT, such as streamflow, suspended solids (SS), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP), as well as observed precipitation for the day and previous day, are used as training data for the deep learning model to predict the TP load. For the comparison, the conventional SWAT model is calibrated and validated to predict the TP load. The results revealed that TP load simulated by the hybrid model predicted the observed TP better than that predicted by the calibrated SWAT model. Also, the hybrid model reflects seasonal variations in the TP load, including peak events. Remarkably, when applied to other sub-basins without specific training, the hybrid model consistently outperformed the calibrated SWAT model. In conclusion, application of the SWAT-LSTM hybrid model could be a useful tool for decreasing uncertainties in model calibration and improving the overall predictive performance in watershed modeling. PRACTITIONER POINTS: We aimed to enhance process-based models for watershed water-quality modeling. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Long Short-Term Memory hybrid model's predicted and total phosphorus (TP) matched the observed TP. It exhibited superior predictive performance when applied to other sub-basins. The hybrid model will overcome the constraints of conventional modeling. It will also enable more effective and efficient modeling.

Comprehensive assessment of groundwater quality in the Prayagraj District, Ganga Basin.

Urbanization has severely impacted the world water resources especially the shallow groundwater systems. There is a need of a robust method for quantifying the water quality degradation, which is still a challenge for most of the urban centers across the world. In this study, a highly urbanized region of Ganga basin is selected to critically evaluate commonly used WQIs and compare with fuzzy modeling. A total of 28 water samples were collected from diverse sources (surface and groundwaters) in the vicinity of urban region covering an area of 216 km2 during the premonsoon period. TDS, TH, NO3-, and F- values were found to be above the permissible limits in 57%, 89%, 4%, and 7% samples, respectively. The WQIs (entropy and integrated) outputs were found to be similar with 89% of the samples falling under moderate category. Fuzzy modeling was carried out allowing user-defined weighting factors for the most influential ions, and the output suggested 96% of the samples falling under moderate to excellent categories. Based on the chemical results and considering the lithology of the study area, the geochemical reactions controlling the water quality were deduced. This study outlines a systematic approach of evaluating the overall water quality of an urban region highlighting the merits and limitations of WQIs. It also justifies the immediate need to generate more robust data to achieve the sustainable development goals 6 (clean water and sanitation) and 11 (sustainability of cities and human settlement).

MODCEL-MHUS: a comprehensive multilayer hydrodynamic unified simulation for stormwater, sanitary sewer systems, and urban surface.

Numerous countries and regions have embraced implementing a separate sewer system, segregating sanitary and storm sewers into distinct systems. However, the functionality of these systems often needs to improve due to irregular interconnections, resulting in a mixed and malfunctioning system. Sewage collection is crucial for residential sanitation, but untreated collection significantly contributes to environmental degradation. Analyzing the simultaneous operation of both systems becomes vital for effective management. Using mathematical tools for precise and unified diagnosis and prognosis becomes imperative. However, municipal professionals and companies need more tools specifically designed to evaluate these systems in a unified way, mapping all the hydraulic connections observed in practice. This study proposes a unified simulation method for stormwater and sanitary sewer urban systems, addressing real-world scenarios and potential interferences. The primary goal is to develop a simulation method for both systems, considering system interconnections and urban layouts, involving hydrodynamic and water quality simulations. The practical application of this method, the Multilayer Hydrodynamic Simulation Method (MODCEL-MHUS), successfully identifies issues in urban water networks and suggests solutions, making it a valuable tool for urban water management and environmental engineering professionals.

Enhancing insight into DOM fate in aquatic systems: Introducing the FLOTATION model.

Water quality modeling can help to understand the source, transport, transformation and fate of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in aquatic systems. However, water quality models typically use biological oxygen demand as the state variable for DOM, which poorly represents the bio-refractory fraction of the DOM pool. Furthermore, photodegradation, which has a significant impact on the fate of DOM, is often neglected in water quality models. To fill these gaps, we developed the FLOTATION (FLuorescent dOm Transport And TransformatION) model, which includes three processes: biodegradation, photodegradation, and primary production formation. We applied the model to the Nanfei River to understand the source, spatial distribution, and fate of DOM under low flow conditions. The model was set up and calibrated with the longitudinal measurements of four humic-like components (C1-C4) and one protein-like component (C5) identified by excitation-emission matrix parallel factor analysis (EEM-PARAFAC). The results showed that the simulation reproduced the longitudinal variations of all components well. The photodegradation process removed 18 %, 15 % and 21 % of the total input loadings of the humic-like components C1, C2 and C4, respectively. Algal primary production contributed 18 % of the downstream transport loading, constituting an important autochthonous source. For the protein-like C5, photodegradation and biodegradation together removed 7 % of the input loading. Our newly developed FLOATATION model can facilitate a comprehensive understanding of the fate and transport of DOM in aquatic environments.

Robust clustering-based hybrid technique enabling reliable reservoir water quality prediction with uncertainty quantification and spatial analysis.

Machine learning methodology has recently been considered a smart and reliable way to monitor water quality parameters in aquatic environments like reservoirs and lakes. This study employs both individual and hybrid-based techniques to boost the accuracy of dissolved oxygen (DO) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) predictions in the Wadi Dayqah Dam located in Oman. At first, an AAQ-RINKO device (CTD+ sensor) was used to collect water quality parameters from different locations and varying depths in the reservoir. Second, the dataset is segmented into homogeneous clusters based on DO and Chl-a parameters by leveraging an optimized K-means algorithm, facilitating precise estimations. Third, ten sophisticated variational-individual data-driven models, namely generalized regression neural network (GRNN), random forest (RF), gaussian process regression (GPR), decision tree (DT), least-squares boosting (LSB), bayesian ridge (BR), support vector regression (SVR), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and group method of data handling (GMDH) are employed to estimate DO and Chl-a concentrations. Fourth, to improve prediction accuracy, bayesian model averaging (BMA), entropy weighted (EW), and a new enhanced clustering-based hybrid technique called Entropy-ORNESS are employed to combine model outputs. The Entropy-ORNESS method incorporates a Genetic Algorithm (GA) to determine optimal weights and then combine them with EW weights. Finally, the inclusion of bootstrapping techniques introduces a stochastic assessment of model uncertainty, resulting in a robust estimator model. In the validation phase, the Entropy-ORNESS technique outperforms the independent models among the three fusion-based methods, yielding R2 values of 0.92 and 0.89 for DO and Chl-a clusters, respectively. The proposed hybrid-based methodology demonstrates reduced uncertainty compared to single data-driven models and two combination frameworks, with uncertainty levels of 0.24% and 1.16% for cluster 1 of DO and cluster 2 of Chl-a parameters. As a highlight point, the spatial analysis of DO and Chl-a concentrations exhibit similar pattern variations across varying depths of the dam according to the comparison of field measurements with the best hybrid technique, in which DO concentration values notably decrease during warmer seasons. These findings collectively underscore the potential of the upgraded weighted-based hybrid approach to provide more accurate estimations of DO and Chl-a concentrations in dynamic aquatic environments.

Ensemble machine learning using hydrometeorological information to improve modeling of quality parameter of raw water supplying treatment plants.

Source and raw water quality may deteriorate due to rainfall and river flow events that occur in watersheds. The effects on raw water quality are normally detected in drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs) with a time-lag after these events in the watersheds. Early warning systems (EWSs) in DWTPs require models with high accuracy in order to anticipate changes in raw water quality parameters. Ensemble machine learning (EML) techniques have recently been used for water quality modeling to improve accuracy and decrease variance in the outcomes. We used three decision-tree-based EML models (random forest [RF], gradient boosting [GB], and eXtreme Gradient Boosting [XGB]) to predict two critical parameters for DWTPs, raw water Turbidity and UV absorbance (UV254), using rainfall and river flow time series as predictors. When modeling raw water turbidity, the three EML models (rRF-Tu2=0.87, rGB-Tu2=0.80 and rXGB-Tu2=0.81) showed very good performance metrics. For raw water UV254, the three models (rRF-UV2=0.89, rGB-UV2=0.85 and rXGB-UV2=0.88) again showed very good performance metrics. Results from this study suggest that EML approaches could be used in EWSs to anticipate changes in the quality parameters of raw water and enhance decision-making in DWTPs.

Water quality monitoring and modeling for an urban storm drainage channel in Thane, India.

The absence of a sewer system and inadequate wastewater treatment plants results in a discharge of untreated wastewater to the urban drainage channels and pollutes receiving waters. Field visits were carried out to observe water quality parameters such as dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), and chemical oxygen demand (COD) in an urban drainage system (Kolshet drain) in Thane City, Mumbai Metropolitan Region, India. Dye-tracing studies using rhodamine WT dye were used for computing the velocity, discharge, and dispersion coefficient of the drain. The data analysis shows that the BOD and COD values in the drain are higher than the permissible limits (30 mg L-1 for BOD and 250 mg L-1 for COD), which is not suitable for disposal to any receiving water body. Also, the DO was less than the permissible limit of a minimum of 3 mg L-1 (for the survival of aquatic life). It is seen that the higher BOD load significantly reduced the DO throughout the drain. The Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP 8.32, 2019) developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has been used for the simulation of the DO and BOD in the drainage channel. The model simulates an appropriate estimate of the expected variation of DO and BOD at points of interest. The modeling for the Kolshet drain is expected to enable better estimates of the wastewater parameters and the pollution transport in the drain for planning purposes.

Water quality prediction based on sparse dataset using enhanced machine learning.

Water quality in surface bodies remains a pressing issue worldwide. While some regions have rich water quality data, less attention is given to areas that lack sufficient data. Therefore, it is crucial to explore novel ways of managing source-oriented surface water pollution in scenarios with infrequent data collection such as weekly or monthly. Here we showed sparse-dataset-based prediction of water pollution using machine learning. We investigated the efficacy of a traditional Recurrent Neural Network alongside three Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, integrated with the Load Estimator (LOADEST). The research was conducted at a river-lake confluence, an area with intricate hydrological patterns. We found that the Self-Attentive LSTM (SA-LSTM) model outperformed the other three machine learning models in predicting water quality, achieving Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) scores of 0.71 for CODMn and 0.57 for NH3N when utilizing LOADEST-augmented water quality data (referred to as the SA-LSTM-LOADEST model). The SA-LSTM-LOADEST model improved upon the standalone SA-LSTM model by reducing the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 24.6% for CODMn and 21.3% for NH3N. Furthermore, the model maintained its predictive accuracy when data collection intervals were extended from weekly to monthly. Additionally, the SA-LSTM-LOADEST model demonstrated the capability to forecast pollution loads up to ten days in advance. This study shows promise for improving water quality modeling in regions with limited monitoring capabilities.

Climate change and future water demand: Implications for chlorine and trihalomethanes management in water distribution systems.

The global change in surface water quality calls for increased preparedness of drinking water utilities. The increasing frequency of extreme climatic events combined with global warming can impact source and treated water characteristics such as temperature and natural organic matter. On the other hand, water saving policies in response to water and energy crisis in some countries can aggravate the situation by increasing the water residence time in the drinking water distribution system (DWDS). This study investigates the individual and combined effect of increased dissolved organic carbon (DOC), increased temperature, and reduced water demand on fate and transport of chlorine and trihalomethanes (THMs) within a full-scale DWDS in Canada. Chlorine and THM prediction models were calibrated with laboratory experiments and implemented in EPANET-MATLAB toolkit for prediction in the DWDS under different combinations of DOC, temperature, and demand. The duration of low chlorine residuals (<0.2 mg/L) and high THM (>80 µg/L) periods within a day in each scenario was reported using a reliability index. Low-reliability zones prone to microbial regrowth or high THM exposure were then delineated geographically on the city DWDS. Results revealed that water demand reduction primarily affects chlorine availability, with less concern for THM formation. The reduction in nodal chlorine reliability was gradual with rising temperature and DOC of the treated water and reducing water demand. Nodal THM reliability remained unchanged until certain thresholds were reached, i.e., temperature >25 °C for waters with DOC <1.52 mg/L, and DOC >2.2 mg/L for waters with temperature = 17 °C. At these critical thresholds, an abrupt network-wide THM exceedance of 80 µg/L occurred. Under higher DOC and temperature levels in future, employing the proposed approach revealed that increasing the applied chlorine dosage (which is a conventional method used to ensure sufficient chlorine coverage) results in elevated exposure toTHMs and is not recommended. This approach aids water utilities in assessing the effectiveness of different intervention measures to solve water quality problems, identify site-specific thresholds leading to major decreases in system reliability, and integrate climate adaptation into water safety management.

Impact of climate change and land cover dynamics on nitrate transport to surface waters.

The study investigated the impact of climate and land cover change on water quality. The novel contribution of the study was to investigate the individual and combined impacts of climate and land cover change on water quality with high spatial and temporal resolution in a basin in Turkey. The global circulation model MPI-ESM-MR was dynamically downscaled to 10-km resolution under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model stream flow and nitrate loads. The land cover model outputs that were produced by the Land Change Modeler (LCM) were used for these simulation studies. Results revealed that decreasing precipitation intensity driven by climate change could significantly reduce nitrate transport to surface waters. In the 2075-2100 period, nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) loads transported to surface water decreased by more than 75%. Furthermore, the transition predominantly from forestry to pastoral farming systems increased loads by about 6%. The study results indicated that fine-resolution land use and climate data lead to better model performance. Environmental managers can also benefit greatly from the LCM-based forecast of land use changes and the SWAT model's attribution of changes in water quality to land use changes.

Improving model capability in simulating spatiotemporal variations and flow contributions of nitrate export in tile-drained catchments.

It is essential to identify the dominant flow paths, hot spots and hot periods of hydrological nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) losses for developing nitrogen loads reduction strategies in agricultural watersheds. Coupled biogeochemical transformations and hydrological connectivity regulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of water and NO3-N export along surface and subsurface flows. However, modeling performance is usually limited by the oversimplification of natural and human-managed processes and insufficient representation of spatiotemporally varied hydrological and biogeochemical cycles in agricultural watersheds. In this study, we improved a spatially distributed process-based hydro-ecological model (DLEM-catchment) and applied the model to four tile-drained catchments with mixed agricultural management and diverse landscape in Iowa, Midwestern US. The quantitative statistics show that the improved model well reproduced the daily and monthly water discharge, NO3-N concentration and loading measured from 2015 to 2019 in all four catchments. The model estimation shows that subsurface flow (tile flow + lateral flow) dominates the discharge (70-75%) and NO3-N loading (77-82%) over the years. However, the contributions of tile drainage and lateral flow vary remarkably among catchments due to different tile-drained area percentages and the presence of farmed potholes (former depressional wetlands that have been drained for agricultural production). Furthermore, we found that agricultural management (e.g. tillage and fertilizer management) and catchment characteristics (e.g. soil properties, farmed potholes, and tile drainage) play important roles in predicting the spatial distributions of NO3-N leaching and loading. The simulated results reveal that the model improvements in representing water retention capacity (snow processes, soil roughness, and farmed potholes) and tile drainage improved model performance in estimating discharge and NO3-N export at a daily time step, while improvement of agricultural management mainly impacts NO3-N export prediction. This study underlines the necessity of characterizing catchment properties, agricultural management practices, flow-specific NO3-N movement, and spatial heterogeneity of NO3-N fluxes for accurately simulating water quality dynamics and predicting the impacts of agricultural conservation nutrient reduction strategies.

Restoration of Qaraoun Lake aquatic life based on wetland treatment concept.

Qaraoun Lake, the largest artificial lake in Lebanon, suffered severe environmental issues due to discharging untreated domestic and industrial wastewater into it, throwing garbage, which transformed this lake into waste storage instead of using the water for agricultural purposes and making the surrounding places attractive for tourists as was before. Moreover, the violations on Litany River, Lebanon's main artery, also affected Qaraoun Lake. Therefore, this main reservoir suffers from annual blooms of potentially toxic cyanobacteria. Recently, tons of fish are washed up at the surface of the water, agricultural areas are irrigated with polluted water and the Qaraoun Lake is no longer an attractive touristic place. Besides, the climate change represented in lower precipitation and higher evaporation rates in the past few years in addition to the increase in the water demand due to the growth in the local population and the refugees from nearby countries have affected the vulnerability of the water sector in Lebanon. All these issues have resulted in the deterioration of the water quality, generating environmental issues, and seriously affecting the ecosystem. The purpose of this research is to investigate possible remediation strategies, which could help in the restoration of the Qaraoun reservoir. For this purpose, the Litani River water quality and hydrological data are collected from the Litani River Authority (LRA). Moreover, a hydrodynamic water quality model has been developed using Mike21 in order to restore the lake's aquatic life by eliminating the Litani River nutrients through constructed wetland concept, which reasonably simulated the water quality parameters of Qaraoun Lake. Consequently, the wetland could remarkably reduce the Litani River pollutants by 85%, 43.7%, 57%, and 56% for BOD, Phosphorous, Nitrate, and Ammonia, respectively. The resulted treated water, after passing the wetland, successfully improved the lake water quality and may lead to re-originate its ecosystem.

Chlorophyll-a prediction in tropical reservoirs as a function of hydroclimatic variability and water quality.

The study goal was to determine spatiotemporal variations in chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration using models that combine hydroclimatic and nutrient variables in 150 tropical reservoirs in Brazil. The investigation of seasonal variability indicated that Chl-a varied in response to changes in total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), volume (V), and daily precipitation (P). Therefore, an empirical model for Chl-a prediction based on the product of TN, TP, and normalized functions of V and P was proposed, but their individual exponents as well as a general multiplicative factor were adjusted by linear regression for each reservoir. The fitted relationships were capable of representing algal temporal dynamics and blooms, with an average coefficient of determination of R2 = 0.70. The results revealed that nutrients yielded better predictability of Chl-a than hydroclimatic variables. Chl-a blooms presented seasonal and interannual variability, being more frequent in periods of high precipitation and low volume. The equations demonstrate different Chl-a responses to the parameters. In general, Chl-a was positively related to TN and/or TP. However, in some cases (22%), high nutrient concentrations reduced Chl-a, which was attributed to limited phytoplankton growth driven by light deficiency due to increased turbidity. In 49% of the models, precipitation intensified Chl-a levels, which was related to increases in the nutrient concentration from external sources in rural watersheds. Contrastingly, 51% of the reservoirs faced a decrease in Chl-a with precipitation, which can be explained by the opposite effect of dilution of nutrient concentration at the reservoir inlet in urban watersheds. In terms of volume, in 67% of the reservoirs, water level reduction promoted an increase in Chl-a as a response to higher nutrient concentration. In the other cases, Chl-a decreased with lower water levels due to wind-induced destratification of the water column, which potentially decreased the internal nutrient release from bottom sediment. Finally, applying the model to the two largest studied reservoirs showed greater sensitivity of Chl-a to changes in water use classes regarding variations in TN, followed by TP, V, and P.

Winter Water Quality Modeling in Xiong'an New Area Supported by Hyperspectral Observation.

Xiong'an New Area is defined as the future city of China, and the regulation of water resources is an important part of the scientific development of the city. Baiyang Lake, the main supplying water for the city, is selected as the study area, and the water quality extraction of four typical river sections is taken as the research objective. The GaiaSky-mini2-VN hyperspectral imaging system was executed on the UAV to obtain the river hyperspectral data for four winter periods. Synchronously, water samples of COD, PI, AN, TP, and TN were collected on the ground, and the in situ data under the same coordinate were obtained. A total of 2 algorithms of band difference and band ratio are established, and the relatively optimal model is obtained based on 18 spectral transformations. The conclusion of the strength of water quality parameters' content along the four regions is obtained. This study revealed four types of river self-purification, namely, uniform type, enhanced type, jitter type, and weakened type, which provided the scientific basis for water source traceability evaluation, water pollution source area analysis, and water environment comprehensive treatment.

Influence of anthropogenic nitrogen inputs and legacy nitrogen change on riverine nitrogen export in areas with high agricultural activity.

Increased riverine nitrogen (N) concentrations due to human activities is one of the leading causes of water quality decline, worldwide. Therefore, quantitative information about the N exported from watershed to the river (TN exports) is essential for defining N pollution control practices. This paper evaluated the changes in net anthropogenic N inputs (NANI) and the N stored in land ecosystems (legacy N) in the Jianghan Plain (JHP) from 1990 to 2019 and their impacts on TN exports. Moreover, an empirical model was developed to estimate TN exports, trace its source, and predict its future variations in 2020-2035 under different scenarios. According to the results, NANI exhibited a rise-decrease-rise-decrease M-shaped trend, with N fertilizer application being the dominant driver for NANI change. In terms of the NANI components, non-point-source was the primary N input form (96%). Noteworthy is that the correlation between NANI and TN exports became weaker over time, and large differences in changing trends were observed after 2014. A likely cause for this abnormal trend was that the accumulation of N surplus in soil led to N saturation in agricultural areas. Legacy N was also an important source of TN exports. However, the contribution of legacy N has rarely been considered when defining N pollution control strategies. An empirical model, incorporating legacy N, agricultural irrigation water use, and cropland area ratio, was developed. Based on this model, legacy N contributed a large proportion (15-31%). Furthermore, the results of future predictions indicated that legacy N had a larger impact on future TN exports changes compared to other factors, and increased irrigation water would increase rather than decrease TN exports. Therefore, an integrated N management strategy considering the impact of NANI, legacy N, and irrigation water use is crucial to control N pollution in areas with intensive agriculture.

Modeling, challenges, and strategies for understanding impacts of climate extremes (droughts and floods) on water quality in Asia: A review.

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are among the most expected and recognized consequences of climate change. Prediction of water quality parameters becomes more challenging with these extremes since water quality is strongly related to hydro-meteorological conditions and is particularly sensitive to climate change. The evidence linking the influence of hydro-meteorological factors on water quality provides insights into future climatic extremes. Despite recent breakthroughs in water quality modeling and evaluations of climate change's impact on water quality, climate extreme informed water quality modeling methodologies remain restricted. This review aims to summarize the causal mechanisms across climate extremes considering water quality parameters and Asian water quality modeling methods associated with climate extremes, such as floods and droughts. In this review, we (1) identify current scientific approaches to water quality modeling and prediction in the context of flood and drought assessment, (2) discuss the challenges and impediments, and (3) propose potential solutions to these challenges to improve understanding of the impact of climate extremes on water quality and mitigate their negative impacts. This study emphasizes that one crucial step toward enhancing our aquatic ecosystems is by comprehending the connections between climate extreme events and water quality through collective efforts. The connections between the climate indices and water quality indicators were demonstrated to better understand the link between climate extremes and water quality for a selected watershed basin.

Predicting Fecal Indicator Bacteria Using Spatial Stream Network Models in A Mixed-Land-Use Suburban Watershed in New Jersey, USA.

Good water quality safeguards public health and provides economic benefits through recreational opportunities for people in urban and suburban environments. However, expanding impervious areas and poorly managed sanitary infrastructures result in elevated concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria and waterborne pathogens in adjacent waterways and increased waterborne illness risk. Watershed characteristics, such as urban land, are often associated with impaired microbial water quality. Within the proximity of the New York-New Jersey-Pennsylvania metropolitan area, the Musconetcong River has been listed in the Clean Water Act's 303 (d) List of Water Quality-Limited Waters due to high concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB). In this study, we aimed to apply spatial stream network (SSN) models to associate key land use variables with E. coli as an FIB in the suburban mixed-land-use Musconetcong River watershed in the northwestern New Jersey. The SSN models explicitly account for spatial autocorrelation in stream networks and have been widely utilized to identify watershed attributes linked to deteriorated water quality indicators. Surface water samples were collected from the five mainstem and six tributary sites along the middle section of the Musconetcong River from May to October 2018. The log10 geometric means of E. coli concentrations for all sampling dates and during storm events were derived as response variables for the SSN modeling, respectively. A nonspatial model based on an ordinary least square regression and two spatial models based on Euclidean and stream distance were constructed to incorporate four upstream watershed attributes as explanatory variables, including urban, pasture, forest, and wetland. The results indicate that upstream urban land was positively and significantly associated with the log10 geometric mean concentrations of E. coli for all sampling cases and during storm events, respectively (p < 0.05). Prediction of E. coli concentrations by SSN models identified potential hot spots prone to water quality deterioration. The results emphasize that anthropogenic sources were the main threats to microbial water quality in the suburban Musconetcong River watershed. The SSN modeling approaches from this study can serve as a novel microbial water quality modeling framework for other watersheds to identify key land use stressors to guide future urban and suburban water quality restoration directions in the USA and beyond.

Modeling nutrient flows from land to rivers and seas - A review and synthesis.

Water quality modeling facilitates management of nutrient flows from land to rivers and seas, in addition to environmental pollution management in watersheds. In the present paper, we review advances made in the development of seven water quality models and highlight their respective strengths and weaknesses. Afterward, we propose their future development directions, with distinct characteristics for different scenarios. We also discuss the practical problems that such models address in the same region, China, and summarize their different characteristics based on their performance. We focus on the temporal and geographical scales of the models, sources of pollution considered, and the main problems that can be addressed. Summary of such characteristics could facilitate the selection of appropriate models for resolving practical challenges on nutrient pollution in the corresponding scenarios globally by stakeholders. We also make recommendations for model enhancement to expand their capabilities.

Appraisal of machine learning techniques for predicting emerging disinfection byproducts in small water distribution networks.

Monitoring emerging disinfection byproducts (DBPs) is challenging for many small water distribution networks (SWDNs), and machine learning-based predictive modeling could be an alternative solution. In this study, eleven machine learning techniques, including three multivariate linear regression-based, three regression tree-based, three neural networks-based, and two advanced non-parametric regression techniques, are used to develop models for predicting three emerging DBPs (dichloroacetonitrile, chloropicrin, and trichloropropanone) in SWDNs. Predictors of the models include commonly-measured water quality parameters and two conventional DBP groups. Sampling data of 141 cases were collected from eleven SWDNs in Canada, in which 70 % were randomly selected for model training and the rest were used for validation. The modeling process was reiterated 1000 times for each model. The results show that models developed using advanced regression techniques, including support vector regression and Gaussian process regression, exhibited the best prediction performance. Support vector regression models showed the highest prediction accuracy (R2 =0.94) and stability for predicting dichloroacetonitrile and trichloropropanone, and Gaussian process regression models are optimal for predicting chloropicrin (R2 =0.92). The difference is likely due to the much lower concentrations of chloropicrin than dichloroacetonitrile and trichloropropanone. Advanced non-parametric regression techniques, characterized by a probabilistic nature, were identified as most suitable for developing the predictive models, followed by neural network-based (e.g., generalized regression neural network), regression tree-based (e.g., random forest), and multivariate linear regression-based techniques. This study identifies promising machine learning techniques among many commonly-used alternatives for monitoring emerging DBPs in SWDNs under data constraints.