Lost years, mortality burden: the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on premature death due to road traffic accidents in a northern state in Malaysia.

BACKGROUND: This study addresses the persistent global burden of road traffic fatalities, particularly in middle-income countries like Malaysia, by exploring the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Road Traffic Accident (RTA) fatalities in Perak state, Malaysia, with a secondary focus on applying Years of Life Lost (YLL) to understand the implications of these premature deaths. METHODOLOGY: The cross-sectional study retrospectively reviewed certified RTA fatalities from 2018 to 2021, individually counting fatalities in accidents and excluding cases with incomplete death profiles. Data were collected from all Forensic Departments in the government hospitals in Perak. RTA fatalities were confirmed by medical officers/physicians following established procedures during routine procedures. A total of 2517 fatal accident and victim profiles were transcribed into data collection form after reviewing death registration records and post-mortem reports. Inferential analyses were used for comparison between pre- and during COVID-19 pandemic. The standard expected YLL was calculated by comparing the age of death to the external standard life expectancy curve taking into consideration of age and gender in Malaysia. RESULTS: This study included 2207 (87.7%) of the RTA fatalities in Perak State. The analysis revealed a decreasing trend in RTA deaths from 2018 to 2021, with a remarkable Annual Percent Change (APC) of -25.1% in 2020 compared to the pre-pandemic year in 2019 and remained stable with lower APC in 2021. Comparison between pre-pandemic (2018-2019) and pandemic years (2020-2021) revealed a difference in the fatality distribution with a median age rise during the pandemic (37.7 (IQR: 22.96, 58.08) vs. 41.0 (IQR: 25.08, 61.00), p = 0.002). Vehicle profiles remained consistent, yet changes were observed in the involvement of various road users, where more motorcycle riders and pedestrian were killed during pandemic (p = 0.049). During pandemic, there was a decline in vehicle collisions, but slight increase of the non-collision accidents and incidents involving pedestrians/animals (p = 0.015). A shift in accident from noon till midnight were also notable during the pandemic (p = 0.028). YLL revealed differences by age and gender, indicating a higher YLL for females aged 30-34 during the pandemic. CONCLUSION: The decline in RTA fatalities during COVID-19 pandemic underscores the influence of pandemic-induced restrictions and reduced traffic. However, demographic shifts, increased accident severity due to risky behaviors and gender-specific impacts on YLL, stress the necessity for improved safety interventions amidst evolving dynamics.

U.S. Army mortality surveillance in active duty soldiers, 2014-2019.

Mortality surveillance is an important activity for capturing information on a population's health. This retrospective surveillance analysis utilizes administrative data sources to describe active duty U.S. Army soldiers who died from 2014 to 2019, and calculate mortality rates, assess trends by category of death, and identify leading causes of death within subpopulations. During the surveillance period, 2,530 soldier deaths were reported. The highest crude mortality rates observed during the 6-year surveillance period were for deaths by suicide, followed by accidental (i.e., unintentional injury) deaths. The crude mortality rates for natural deaths decreased significantly over the 6-year period, by an average of 6% annually. The leading causes of death were suicide by gunshot wound, motor vehicle accidents, suicide by hanging, neoplasms, and cardiovascular events. Significant differences were observed in the leading causes of death in relation to demographic characteristics, which has important implications for the development of focused educational campaigns to improve health behaviors and safe driving habits. Current public health programs to prevent suicide should be evaluated, with new approaches for firearm safety considered.

Injury characteristics and mortality in an emergency department in Ethiopia: a single-center observational study.

INTRODUCTION: An injury is described as any damage to the body that impairs health, and its severity can span from mild to life-threatening. On a global scale, injuries account for approximately 4.4 million deaths annually and are anticipated to become the seventh leading cause of death by 2030. In Ethiopia, injuries account for 7% of all deaths, with one of the world's highest rates of road traffic injuries. This study, undertaken at a primary trauma centre in the capital of Ethiopia, aimed to explore the characteristics of injured patients and emergency department mortality as the patient outcome. Understanding the patterns and outcomes of injuries helps to anticipate needs, prioritize patients, and allocate resources effectively. METHODS: A retrospective single-center observational study utilised patient records from September 2020 to August 2021 at Addis Ababa Burn Emergency and Trauma Hospital, located in Ethiopia. A structured checklist facilitated the data collection. All patients arriving in the ED from September 2020 to August 2021 were eligible for the study while incomplete records (missing > 20% of wanted data elements) were excluded. RESULT: Of the 3502 injured patients recorded during the study period, 317 were selected. The mean patient age was 30 years, with 78.5% being male. About 8% arrived the emergency department within an hour after the injury. Ambulances transported 38.8% of patients; 58.5% of these were referred from other facilities. The predominant mechanism of injury both in and outside Addis Ababa was pedestrian road traffic injuries (31.4% and 38%). The predominant injury type was fractures (33.8%). The mortality rate was 5%, of which half were pedestrian road traffic incidents. CONCLUSION: Pedestrian road traffic injuries were the main cause of injury in and outside of Addis Ababa. A small proportion of patients arrived at the emergency department within the first hour after an injury event. A significant proportion of ambulance-transported patients were referred from other facilities rather than directly from the scene. The overall mortality rate was high, with pedestrian road traffic injury accounting for half of the proportion.

Evaluation and comparison of administrative division-level road traffic safety indices of Egypt, England, Turkey, and the United States.

INTRODUCTION: There is regional diversity inside countries regarding road safety indices (RSIs), and countries rarely have been compared based on these indicators. Thus, regional RSIs of England, the United States, Egypt, and Turkey were evaluated. Regional data were collected from the statistical center of each country. The adopted regional RSIs include road fatalities, health risk (HR) or fatalities per population, and traffic risk (TR) or fatalities per number of vehicles. The associations between variables were examined using correlation and regression analysis. The spatial distributions of subdivisions were evaluated using Moran's I, the local Moran index. RESULTS: Considerable differences between the countries were observed, including differences in the spatial distribution of regions and associations between RSIs. Significant relationships were detected between road fatality, population, and the number of motor vehicles. Higher exposure rates mean higher fatalities in regions. A robust linear relationship between the HR and TR indices was identified in developed countries. There is a nonlinear and significant association between motorization rates and TR indices of regions, and fatality risk decreases as the motorization rate increases. There is a considerable gap between developed and developing countries regarding regional RSIs, and the transferability of road safety models from one country to another is challenging. Huge hotspots regarding RSIs were observed in Turkey and the United States. The locations of hot spots in terms of the risk indices were identical in the developed countries.

Demographic and injury trends for car crash casualties hospitalized in Level I Trauma centers over two decades: data from the National Trauma Registry.

BACKGROUND: During the past two decades, there have been many changes in automotive and medical technologies, road infrastructure, trauma systems, and demographic changes which may have influenced injury outcomes. The aim of this study was to examine injury trends among traffic casualties, specifically private car occupants, hospitalized in Level I Trauma Centers (TC). METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed based on data from the Israel National Trauma Registry. The data included occupants of private cars hospitalized in all six Level I TC due to a traffic collision related injury between January 1, 1998 and December 31, 2019. Demographic, injury and hospitalization characteristics and in-hospital mortality were analyzed. Chi-squared (X2) test, multivariable logistic regression models and Spearman's rank correlation were used to analyze injury data and trends. RESULTS: During the study period, 21,173 private car occupants (14,078 drivers, 4,527 front passengers, and 2,568 rear passengers) were hospitalized due to a traffic crash. The percentage of females hospitalized due to a car crash increased from 37.7% in 1998 to 53.7% in 2019. Over a twofold increase in hospitalizations among older adult drivers (ages 65+) was observed, from 6.5% in 1998 to 15.7% in 2018 and 12.6% in 2019. While no increase was observed for severe traumatic brain injury, a statistically significant increase in severe abdominal and thoracic injuries was observed among the non-Jewish population along with a constant decrease in in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides interesting findings regarding injury and demographic trends among car occupants during the past two decades. Mortality among private car occupant casualties decreased during the study period, however an increase in serious abdominal and thoracic injuries was identified. The results should be used to design and implement policies and interventions for reducing injury and disability among car occupants.

Incidence and predictors of mortality among road traffic accident victims admitted to hospitals at Hawassa city, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Globally, road traffic accidents are the eighth-leading cause of death for all age groups. The estimated number of road traffic deaths in low income countries was more than three times as high as in high-income countries. Africa had the highest rate of fatalities attributed to road traffic accidents. Ethiopia has the highest number of road traffic fatalities among Sub-Saharan African countries. The main objective of this study was to determine the incidence and predictors of mortality among road traffic victims admitted to hospitals in Hawassa City. METHODS: A facility-based retrospective cohort study was conducted using secondary data from hospital records. A total of 398 road traffic accident victims admitted to selected hospitals in Hawassa city from January 2019 to December 2021 participated in the study. Data were analyzed using STATA version 14.1. The Cox regression model was used to determine the predictors of mortality. A hazard ratio with a 95% confidence interval and a cut-off value of P<0.05 was used to declare the risk and statistical significance, respectively. RESULT: The incidence rate of mortality for road traffic accident victims was 7.34 per 10,000 person-hours. The predictors of mortality were the value of GCS at admission <8 (aHR = 5.86; 95% CI: 2.00-17.19), GCS at admission 9-12 (aHR = 3.27; 95% CI: 1.28-8.40), the value of SBP at admission ≤89mmHg (aHR = 4.41; 95% CI: 2.22-8.77), admission to the ICU (aHR = 3.89; 95% CI: 1.83-8.28) and complications (aHR = 5.48; 95% CI: 2.74-10.01). CONCLUSION: The incidence of mortality among road traffic victims admitted to hospitals in Hawassa city was high. Thus, thorough follow-up and intensive management should be given to victims with critical health conditions.

The development of a road safety policy index and its application in evaluating the effects of road safety policy.

The paper presents an exploratory study of a road safety policy index developed for Norway. The index consists of ten road safety measures for which data on their use from 1980 to 2021 are available. The ten measures were combined into an index which had an initial value of 50 in 1980 and increased to a value of 185 in 2021. To assess the application of the index in evaluating the effects of road safety policy, negative binomial regression models and multivariate time series models were developed for traffic fatalities, fatalities and serious injuries, and all injuries. The coefficient for the policy index was negative, indicating the road safety policy has contributed to reducing the number of fatalities and injuries. The size of this contribution can be estimated by means of at least three estimators that do not always produce identical values. There is little doubt about the sign of the relationship: a stronger road safety policy (as indicated by index values) is associated with a larger decline in fatalities and injuries. A precise quantification is, however, not possible. Different estimators of effect, all of which can be regarded as plausible, yield different results.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality Among US Youth.

Importance: Mortality rates in US youth have increased in recent years. An understanding of the role of racial and ethnic disparities in these increases is lacking. Objective: To compare all-cause and cause-specific mortality trends and rates among youth with Hispanic ethnicity and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian or Pacific Islander, Black, and White race. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study conducted temporal analysis (1999-2020) and comparison of aggregate mortality rates (2016-2020) for youth aged 1 to 19 years using US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research database. Data were analyzed from June 30, 2023, to January 17, 2024. Main Outcomes and Measures: Pooled, all-cause, and cause-specific mortality rates per 100 000 youth (hereinafter, per 100 000) for leading underlying causes of death were compared. Injuries were classified by mechanism and intent. Results: Between 1999 and 2020, there were 491 680 deaths among US youth, including 8894 (1.8%) American Indian or Alaska Native, 14 507 (3.0%) Asian or Pacific Islander, 110 154 (22.4%) Black, 89 251 (18.2%) Hispanic, and 267 452 (54.4%) White youth. Between 2016 and 2020, pooled all-cause mortality rates were 48.79 per 100 000 (95% CI, 46.58-51.00) in American Indian or Alaska Native youth, 15.25 per 100 000 (95% CI, 14.75-15.76) in Asian or Pacific Islander youth, 42.33 per 100 000 (95% CI, 41.81-42.86) in Black youth, 21.48 per 100 000 (95% CI, 21.19-21.77) in Hispanic youth, and 24.07 per 100 000 (95% CI, 23.86-24.28) in White youth. All-cause mortality ratios compared with White youth were 2.03 (95% CI, 1.93-2.12) among American Indian or Alaska Native youth, 0.63 (95% CI, 0.61-0.66) among Asian or Pacific Islander youth, 1.76 (95% CI, 1.73-1.79) among Black youth, and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.88-0.91) among Hispanic youth. From 2016 to 2020, the homicide rate in Black youth was 12.81 (95% CI, 12.52-13.10) per 100 000, which was 10.20 (95% CI, 9.75-10.66) times that of White youth. The suicide rate for American Indian or Alaska Native youth was 11.37 (95% CI, 10.30-12.43) per 100 000, which was 2.60 (95% CI, 2.35-2.86) times that of White youth. The firearm mortality rate for Black youth was 12.88 (95% CI, 12.59-13.17) per 100 000, which was 4.14 (95% CI, 4.00-4.28) times that of White youth. American Indian or Alaska Native youth had a firearm mortality rate of 6.67 (95% CI, 5.85-7.49) per 100 000, which was 2.14 (95% CI, 1.88- 2.43) times that of White youth. Black youth had an asthma mortality rate of 1.10 (95% CI, 1.01-1.18) per 100 000, which was 7.80 (95% CI, 6.78-8.99) times that of White youth. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, racial and ethnic disparities were observed for almost all leading causes of injury and disease that were associated with recent increases in youth mortality rates. Addressing the increasing disparities affecting American Indian or Alaska Native and Black youth will require efforts to prevent homicide and suicide, especially those events involving firearms.

Effect of Rural Trauma Team Development on the Outcomes of Motorcycle Accident-Related Injuries (Motor Registry Project): Protocol for a Multicenter Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Injury is a global health concern, and injury-related mortality disproportionately impacts low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Compelling evidence from observational studies in high-income countries shows that trauma education programs, such as the Rural Trauma Team Development Course (RTTDC), increase clinician knowledge of injury care. There is a dearth of such evidence from controlled clinical trials to demonstrate the effect of the RTTDC on process and patient outcomes in LMICs. OBJECTIVE: This multicenter cluster randomized controlled clinical trial aims to examine the impact of the RTTDC on process and patient outcomes associated with motorcycle accident-related injuries in an African low-resource setting. METHODS: This is a 2-arm, parallel, multi-period, cluster randomized, controlled, clinical trial in Uganda, where rural trauma team development training is not routinely conducted. We will recruit regional referral hospitals and include patients with motorcycle accident-related injuries, interns, medical trainees, and road traffic law enforcement professionals. The intervention group (RTTDC) and control group (standard care) will include 3 hospitals each. The primary outcomes will be the interval from the accident to hospital admission and the interval from the referral decision to hospital discharge. The secondary outcomes will be all-cause mortality and morbidity associated with neurological and orthopedic injuries at 90 days after injury. All outcomes will be measured as final values. We will compare baseline characteristics and outcomes at both individual and cluster levels between the intervention and control groups. We will use mixed effects regression models to report any absolute or relative differences along with 95% CIs. We will perform subgroup analyses to evaluate and control confounding due to injury mechanisms and injury severity. We will establish a motorcycle trauma outcome (MOTOR) registry in consultation with community traffic police. RESULTS: The trial was approved on August 27, 2019. The actual recruitment of the first patient participant began on September 01, 2019. The last follow-up was on August 27, 2023. Posttrial care, including linkage to clinical, social support, and referral services, is to be completed by November 27, 2023. Data analyses will be performed in Spring 2024, and the results are expected to be published in Autumn 2024. CONCLUSIONS: This trial will unveil how a locally contextualized rural trauma team development program impacts organizational efficiency in a continent challenged with limited infrastructure and human resources. Moreover, this trial will uncover how rural trauma team coordination impacts clinical outcomes, such as mortality and morbidity associated with neurological and orthopedic injuries, which are the key targets for strengthening trauma systems in LMICs where prehospital care is in the early stage. Our results could inform the design, implementation, and scalability of future rural trauma teams and trauma education programs in LMICs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry (PACTR202308851460352); https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/TrialDisplay.aspx?TrialID=25763. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/55297.

"We are pleading for the government to do more": Road user perspectives on the magnitude, contributing factors, and potential solutions to road traffic injuries and deaths in Ghana.

Road traffic collisions disproportionately impact Ghana and other low- and middle-income countries. This study explored road user perspectives regarding the magnitude, contributing factors, and potential solutions to road traffic collisions, injuries, and deaths. We designed a qualitative study of 24 in-depth interviews with 14 vulnerable road users (pedestrians, occupants of powered 2- and 3-wheelers, cyclists) and ten non-vulnerable road users in four high-risk areas in November 2022. We used a mixed deductive (direct content analysis) and inductive (interpretive phenomenological analysis) approach. In the direct content analysis, a priori categories based on Haddon's Matrix covered human, vehicle, socioeconomic environment, and physical environment factors influencing road traffic collisions, along with corresponding solutions. We used inductive analysis to identify emerging themes. Participants described frequent and distressing experiences with collisions, and most often reported contributing factors, implementation gaps, and potential solutions within the human (road user) level domain of Haddon's Matrix. Implementation challenges included sporadic enforcement, reliance on road users' adherence to safety laws, and the low quality of the existing infrastructure. Participants expressed that they felt neglected and ignored by road safety decision-makers. This research emphasizes the need for community input for successful road safety policies in Ghana and other low- and middle-income countries, calling for greater governmental support an action to address this public health crisis. We recommend the government collaborates with communities to adapt existing interventions including speed calming, footbridges, and police enforcement, and introduces new measures that meet local needs.

Comparing fatal crash risk factors by age and crash type by using machine learning techniques.

This study aims to use machine learning methods to examine the causative factors of significant crashes, focusing on accident type and driver's age. In this study, a wide-ranging data set from Jeddah city is employed to look into various factors, such as whether the driver was male or female, where the vehicle was situated, the prevailing weather conditions, and the efficiency of four machine learning algorithms, specifically XGBoost, Catboost, LightGBM and RandomForest. The results show that the XGBoost Model (accuracy of 95.4%), the CatBoost model (94% accuracy), and the LightGBM model (94.9% accuracy) were superior to the random forest model with 89.1% accuracy. It is worth noting that the LightGBM had the highest accuracy of all models. This shows various subtle changes in models, illustrating the need for more analyses while assessing vehicle accidents. Machine learning is also a transforming tool in traffic safety analysis while providing vital guidelines for developing accurate traffic safety regulations.

Safety performance of dedicated and preferential bus lanes using multivariate negative binomial models for Bogotá, Colombia.

Public transport priority systems such as Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and Buses with High Level of Service (BHLS) are top-rated solutions to mobility in low-income and middle-income cities. There is scientific agreement that the safety performance level of these systems depends on their functional, operational, and infrastructure characteristics. However, there needs to be more evidence on how the different characteristics of bus corridors might influence safety. This paper aims to shed some light on this area by structuring a multivariate negative binomial model comparing crash risk on arterial roads, BRT, and BHLS corridors in Bogotá, Colombia. The analyzed infrastructure includes 712.1 km of arterial roads with standard bus service, 194.1 km of BRT network, and 135.6 km of BHLS network. The study considered crashes from 2015 to 2018 -fatalities, injuries, and property damage only- and 30 operational and infrastructure variables grouped into six classes -exposure, road design, infrastructure, public means of transport, and land use. A multicriteria process was applied for model selection, including the structure and predictive power based on [i] Akaike information criteria, [ii] K-fold cross-validation, and [iii] model parsimony. Relevant findings suggest that in terms of observed and expected accident rates and their relationship with the magnitude of exposure -logarithm of average annual traffic volumes at the peak hour (LOG_AAPHT) and the percentage of motorcycles, cars, buses, and trucks- the greatest risk of fatalities, injuries, and property damage occurs in the BHLS network. BRT network provides lower crash rates in less severe collisions while increasing injuries and fatalities. When comparing the BHLS network and the standard design of arterial roads, BHLS infrastructure, despite increasing mobility benefits, provides the lowest safety performance among the three analyzed networks. Individual factors of the study could also contribute to designing safer roads related to signalized intersection density and curvature. These findings support the unique characteristics and traffic dynamics present in the context of Bogotá that could inform and guide decisions of corresponding authorities in other highly dense urban areas from developing countries.

[Epidemic characteristics and trend analysis of major injuries deaths among children and adolescents in Jiangsu Province from 2012 to 2021].

Objective: To understand the situation and epidemic characteristics of injury deaths among children aged 5 to 24 years in Jiangsu Province from 2012 to 2021 and the trend of annual changes. Methods: The main injury mortality data of children and adolescents was collected, and the crude and standardized mortality rates of road traffic accidents, drowning, suicide, and accidental falls among children and adolescents over a decade and the annual average percentage of change (AAPC) were calculated. The main injury mortality characteristics and trends of children and adolescents of different age groups and genders were analyzed. Results: The total number of injury deaths among 5 to 24 adolescents in Jiangsu Province was 16 052, with a standardized mortality rate of 9.58/100 000. There was no significant trend in the overall standardized mortality rate of injuries (AAPC=-3.450%, P=0.055). The standardized mortality rate of road traffic injuries among children and adolescents showed a decreasing trend over the past decade, with statistical significance (AAPC=-9.406%, P<0.001). The standardized suicide mortality rate showed an upward trend over the past decade, with statistical significance (AAPC=9.000%, P=0.001). The overall injury mortality rate showed an upward trend with age. Suicide rates in males and females were on the rise and both have statistical significance (AAPC=9.420% and AAPC=9.607%, both P<0.05). The standardized mortality rates of female traffic accidents, drowning, and male traffic accidents showed a decreasing trend and were statistically significant (AAPC for female traffic accidents=-7.364%, AAPC for female drowning=-5.352%, and AAPC for male traffic accidents=-10.242%, all P<0.05). The standardized mortality rate of urban and rural traffic accidents showed a decreasing trend and was statistically significant(AAPC=-7.899% and AAPC=-9.421%, both P<0.001). The standardized suicide mortality rate showed an upward trend and statistical significance (AAPC=11.009% and AAPC=7.528%, both P<0.05). Conclusions: The overall injury situation of children and adolescents in Jiangsu Province improved in the past decade from 2012 to 2021, but the suicide mortality rate was on the rise. It is necessary to focus on the mental health issues of this age group and to strengthen the prevention and control of suicide among children and adolescents, in Jiangsu.

Road vehicle collision suicide in Australia: Trends, collision types, and individual characteristics.

BACKGROUND: Suicide by road vehicle collision in Australia is under-explored with mixed findings. We aimed to address this research gap by examining time trends, different types of vehicle collision, and individual characteristics related to vehicle-collision suicide. METHOD: We retrospectively analyzed deaths by suicide between 1st January 2001 and 31st December 2017 in Australia, using coronial records from the National Coronial Information System. The travel mode used and collision counterpart were retrieved from records of death by vehicle-collision suicide using all available information. We conducted negative binomial regression analysis to examine annual changes in suicide rate by vehicle collision on a public road (N = 640) and other methods of suicide (N = 41,890), and logistic regression analysis to examine individual characteristics associated with the likelihood of dying by suicide via road vehicle collision. RESULTS: Overall, the national suicide rate involving road vehicle collision significantly increased, while the rate by other methods significantly decreased. Drivers accounted for 61% of suicide events by vehicle collision, of which 72% were single-vehicle collisions (commonly involving a tree). For multiple-vehicle collision suicide events, 82% involved collision with a truck. Pedestrians accounted for more than one-third of suicide events, of which 58% involved collision with a truck and 23% involved collision with a car/van. Individuals who were male (odds ratio 1.15; 95% CI 0.88-1.50), aged <25 years old (odds ratio 5.27; 95% CI 3.05-9.10), non-Indigenous (odds ratio 3.36; 95% CI 1.71-6.62), and born overseas (odds ratio 1.40; 95% CI 1.10-1.79) were more likely to die by vehicle-collision suicide than by other methods of suicide. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a better understanding of road vehicle collision suicide in Australia and informs future research directions on topic. Our findings can be used to inform suicide prevention initiatives to reduce vehicle-collision suicide deaths.

Risk of road traffic injury in Norway 1970-2022.

This paper describes changes in the risk of road traffic injury in Norway during the period from 1970 to 2022. During this period, the risk of fatal and personal injury declined by more than 70 % for most groups of road users. There are five main potential explanations of a decline in the risk of injury: (1) a reduced probability of accidents that have the potential for causing injury; (2) an improved protection against injury given that an accident has occurred; (3) improved medical care increasing the survival rate, given an injury (this would reduce the number of fatalities, but not the number of injuries); (4) a tendency for the reporting of injuries in official accident statistics to decline over time; (5) uncertain or erroneous estimates of the exposure to the risk of injury. The decline in the risk of road traffic injuries in Norway after 1970 can probably be attributed to a combination of reduced reporting of injuries in official statistics, improved protection against injury in accidents, and (for fatal injuries) improved medical care. Insurance data, available from 1992, do not indicate a reduction in the risk of accidents leading to insurance claims. Incomplete and possibly erroneous data for mopeds and motorcycles make it impossible to identify sources of changes in injury risk over time for these modes of transport.

The Global Road Traffic Death Rate and Human Development Index from 2000 to 2019: A Trend Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies on the association between the human development index (HDI) and road traffic death rate (RTDR) merely focus on developed countries, not reflecting the relationship between the HDI components and RTDR in a time-trend analysis. Accordingly, this study analyzes the trends of RTDR and their association with the HDI and its components from 2000 to 2019. METHODS: The RTDR data of 154 countries were imported into the unconditional latent growth model (LGM) to assess the RTDR trends. The impact of the HDI and its components (viz., education, income, and life expectancy [LE viz]) on the trajectory of RTDR was also evaluated using the conditional LGM. RESULTS: The results of the unconditional LGM indicated an overall decreasing trend in RTDR. The conditional LGM results revealed the negative effect of the HDI and its components on the model parameters. The findings of random forests indicated that education and LE were the most crucial variables. CONCLUSION: Overall, this study emphasizes the significance of HDI and its components, particularly education and LE, in lowering the number of traffic fatalities. In this sense, improving formal education and LE could be one of the main policies that policymakers could consider to reduce RTDR.

The effect of opioid use on traffic fatalities.

We use a difference-in-differences design to study the effect of opioid use on traffic fatalities. Following Alpert et al., we focus on the 1996 introduction and marketing of OxyContin, and we examine its long-term impacts on traffic fatalities involving Schedule II drugs or heroin. Based on the national fatal vehicle crash database, we find that the states heavily targeted by the initial marketing of OxyContin (i.e., non-triplicate states) experienced 2.4 times more traffic fatalities (1.6 additional deaths per million individuals) involving Schedule II drugs or heroin during 2011-2019, when overdose deaths from heroin and fentanyl became more prominent. We find no difference in traffic fatalities until after the mid-2000s between states with and without a triplicate prescription program. The effect is mainly concentrated in fatal crashes with drug involvement of drivers ages between 25 and 44. Our results highlight additional long-term detrimental consequences of the introduction and marketing of OxyContin.