Alpha-fetoprotein and APRI as predictive markers for patients with Type C hepatitis B-related acute-on-chronic liver failure: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Type C hepatitis B-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF), which is based on decompensated cirrhosis, has different laboratory tests, precipitating events, organ failure and clinical outcomes. The predictors of prognosis for type C HBV-ACLF patients are different from those for other subgroups. This study aimed to construct a novel, short-term prognostic score that applied serological indicators of hepatic regeneration and noninvasive assessment of liver fibrosis to predict outcomes in patients with type C HBV-ACLF. METHOD: Patients with type C HBV-ACLF were observed for 90 days. Demographic information, clinical examination, and laboratory test results of the enrolled patients were collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were performed to identify independent prognostic factors and develop a novel prognostic scoring system. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyse the performance of the model. RESULTS: A total of 224 patients with type C HBV-ACLF were finally included. The overall survival rate within 90 days was 47.77%. Age, total bilirubin (TBil), international normalized ratio (INR), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), white blood cell (WBC), serum sodium (Na), and aspartate aminotransferase/platelet ratio index (APRI) were found to be independent prognostic factors. According to the results of the logistic regression analysis, a new prognostic model (named the A3Twin score) was established. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was 0.851 [95% CI (0.801-0.901)], the sensitivity was 78.8%, and the specificity was 71.8%, which were significantly higher than those of the MELD, IMELD, MELD-Na, TACIA and COSSH-ACLF II scores (all P < 0.001). Patients with lower A3Twin scores (<-9.07) survived longer. CONCLUSIONS: A new prognostic scoring system for patients with type C HBV-ACLF based on seven routine indices was established in our study and can accurately predict short-term mortality and might be used to guide clinical management.

Hematological ratios in patients with acute decompensation and acute-on-chronic liver failure: prognostic factors.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is the most severe form of acutely decompensated cirrhosis and is characterized by the presence of intense systemic inflammation. Leucocyte quantification can serve as an indirect indicator of systemic inflammation. In our study, we investigated the predictive value of hematological ratios (neutrophils to lymphocytes, monocyte to lymphocytes, platelets to lymphocytes, lymphocytes to C-reactive protein, and neutrophils to lymphocytes and platelets) in acute decompensation (AD) and ACLF patients and their relation to disease severity and early mortality. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We included 60 patients with ACLF and AD, and 30 cirrhotic controls. Clinical data were collected, and survival was followed for 1 and 6 months. Blood samples were analyzed at admission for differential leucocytes and assessed for liver and renal function tests. The leukocyte ratios were calculated and compared, and their correlation with liver function indicators and prognosis was assessed. RESULTS: All ratios were significantly higher in AD and ACLF patients compared to control (except for lymphocyte to C-reactive protein ratio which was significantly lower), and were positively correlated with Child-Pugh score, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)-Na, and ACLF severity scores. Multivariate regression revealed that neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, monocyte to lymphocyte ratio, and MELD-Na were independent prognostic factors of 1-month and 6-month mortality. A unique prognostic nomogram incorporating MELD-Na, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, and monocyte to lymphocyte ratio could be proposed for predicting prognosis in AD and ACLF patients. CONCLUSIONS: Cheap, easy, and noninvasive hematological ratios are introduced as a tool for early identification and risk stratification of AD and ACLF patients.

Clinical profile of adult and pediatric patients with hepatic Wilson's disease.

BACKGROUND: The clinical profile varies in patients with Wilson's disease (WD). There is paucity of data regarding adult and pediatric patients with hepatic WD. METHODS: As many as 140 consecutive patients diagnosed with hepatic WD between December 2006 and January 2021 were included in the study. Data was collected regarding the demographic parameters, clinical presentation, extrahepatic organ involvement, liver histology and laboratory investigations. Adult and children (0-14 years) with hepatic WD were compared regarding these features. RESULT: Eighty-eight adults and 52 children were included in the study. The median age of presentation was 17 years (range: 1.1-42 years). Male preponderance was seen (adult 68/88, 69%; children 40/52, 77%). Adults as compared to children presented more commonly as cirrhosis (52/88 vs. 15/52, p = 0.0005) and with hepatic decompensation (35/88 vs. 9/52, p = 0.005). Presentation with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) was more common in children (10/52 vs. 2/88, p = 0.0005). Twenty-eight-day mortality was 50% (5/10) in children and none in adults presenting with ACLF. Nazer's Prognostic Index (≥ 7) and New Wilson Index were more accurate in predicting mortality among children with ACLF with AUROC 1, while AARC (APASL ACLF Research Consortium) was less accurate with AUROC 0.45. Liver histology findings were similar in adults and children. Extrahepatic involvement was also similar. (8/88 in adults vs. 3/52 children, p value 0.48). CONCLUSION: Most patients with WD present as cirrhosis in adulthood. ACLF is more common in children. Nazer's prognostic index and new Wilson Index score are accurate in predicting mortality in children with ACLF.

The value of dynamic changes in FT3 level for predicting 90-day prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the effect of dynamic changes in free triiodothyronine (FT3) level for predicting the 90 day prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). METHODS: The clinical data of 122 hospitalised patients with HBV-ACLF between September 2018 and January 2020 were collected and divided into a survival group (77 cases) and a death group (45 cases) according to the 90 day prognosis. We statistically analysed the characteristics of FT3 changes in the two groups of patients. Binary logistic regression one-way analysis was used to assess the degree of influence of each factor. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve and receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the effect of a single change in FT3 level difference (single △FT3) and the FT3 level change range (△FT3 range) in predicting the 90-day prognosis of patients. RESULTS: There were only three types of changes in FT3 levels, which included 19 (15.6%) cases of continuous normal type, 35 (28.7%) cases of continuous decrease type and 68 (55.7%) cases of U-shaped change type. The difference in survival curves between the three types of patients was statistically significant (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The dynamic change type of FT3 is related to the disease severity and 90-day prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF. The single FT3 value and FT3 range could be used as a predictive factor for the 90-day prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF. These results have a degree of research value and are worth further exploration in the future.

Postoperative outcomes of acute-on-chronic liver failure in infants and children with biliary atresia.

INTRODUCTION: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is associated with increased mortality and morbidity in patients with biliary atresia (BA). Data on impact of ACLF on postoperative outcomes, however, are sparse. METHOD: We performed a retrospective analysis of patients with BA aged <18 years who underwent LT between 2011 and 2021 at our institution. ACLF was defined using the pediatric ACLF criteria: ≥1 extra-hepatic organ failure in children with decompensated cirrhosis. RESULTS: Of 107 patients (65% female; median age 14 [9-31] months) who received a LT, 13 (12%) had ACLF during the index admission prior to LT. Two (15%) had Grade 1; 4 (30%) had Grade 2; and 7 (55%) had Grade ≥3 ACLF. ACLF cohort was younger at time of listing (5 [4-8] vs. 9 [6-24] months; p < .001) and at LT (8 [8-11] vs. 16 [10-40] months, p < .001) compared to no-ACLF group. Intraoperatively, ACLF patients had higher blood loss (40 [20-53] vs. 10 [6-19] mL/kg; p < .001) and blood transfusion requirements (33 [21-69] vs. 18 [7-25] mL/kg; p = .004). Postoperatively, they needed higher vasopressor support (31% vs. 10.6%; p = .04) and had higher total hospital length of stay (106 [45-151] vs. 13 [7-30] days; p = .023). Rate of return to the operating room, hospital readmission rates, and 1-year post-LT survival rates were comparable between the groups. CONCLUSION: Despite higher perioperative complications, survival outcomes for ACLF in BA after LT are favorable and comparable to those without ACLF. These encouraging data reiterate prioritization during organ allocation of these critically ill children for LT.

[Prognostic nutritional index application value for acute-on-chronic liver failure co-infection].

Objective: To explore the predictive value of the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) in concurrently infected patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Methods: 220 cases with ACLF diagnosed and treated at the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University from January 2011 to December 2016 were selected. Patients were divided into an infection and non-infection group according to whether they had co-infections during the course of the disease. Clinical data differences were compared between the two groups of patients. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to screen out influencing factors related to co-infection. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of PNI for ACLF co-infection. The measurement data between groups were compared using the independent sample t-test and the Mann-Whitney U rank sum test. The enumeration data were analyzed using the Fisher exact probability test or the Pearson χ(2) test. The Pearson method was performed for correlation analysis. The independent risk factors for liver failure associated with co-infection were analyzed by multivariate logistic analysis. Results: There were statistically significant differences in ascites, hepatorenal syndrome, PNI score, and albumin between the infection and the non-infection group (P < 0.05). Among the 220 ACLF cases, 158 (71.82%) were infected with the hepatitis B virus (HBV). The incidence rate of infection during hospitalization was 69.09% (152/220). The common sites of infection were intraabdominal (57.07%) and pulmonary infection (29.29%). Pearson correlation analysis showed that PNI and MELD-Na were negatively correlated (r = -0.150, P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic analysis results showed that low PNI score (OR=0.916, 95%CI: 0.865~0.970), ascites (OR=4.243, 95%CI: 2.237~8.047), and hepatorenal syndrome (OR=4.082, 95%CI : 1.106~15.067) were risk factors for ACLF co-infection (P < 0.05). The ROC results showed that the PNI curve area (0.648) was higher than the MELD-Na score curve area (0.610, P < 0.05). The effectiveness of predicting infection risk when PNI was combined with ascites and hepatorenal syndrome complications was raised. Patients with co-infections had a good predictive effect when PNI ≤ 40.625. The sensitivity and specificity were 84.2% and 41.2%, respectively. Conclusion: Low PNI score and ACLF co-infection have a close correlation. Therefore, PNI has a certain appraisal value for ACLF co-infection.

APASL clinical practice guidelines on the management of acute kidney injury in acute-on-chronic liver failure.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome that is characterized by the rapid development of organ failures predisposing these patients to a high risk of short-term early death. The main causes of organ failure in these patients are bacterial infections and systemic inflammation, both of which can be severe. For the majority of these patients, a prompt liver transplant is still the only effective course of treatment. Kidneys are one of the most frequent extrahepatic organs that are affected in patients with ACLF, since acute kidney injury (AKI) is reported in 22.8-34% of patients with ACLF. Approach and management of kidney injury could improve overall outcomes in these patients. Importantly, patients with ACLF more frequently have stage 3 AKI with a low rate of response to the current treatment modalities. The objective of the present position paper is to critically review and analyze the published data on AKI in ACLF, evolve a consensus, and provide recommendations for early diagnosis, pathophysiology, prevention, and management of AKI in patients with ACLF. In the absence of direct evidence, we propose expert opinions for guidance in managing AKI in this very challenging group of patients and focus on areas of future research. This consensus will be of major importance to all hepatologists, liver transplant surgeons, and intensivists across the globe.

Recent advances in the prevention and treatment of decompensated cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and the role of biomarkers.

The progression of cirrhosis with clinically significant portal hypertension towards decompensated cirrhosis remains clinically challenging and the evolution towards acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), with one or more extrahepatic organ failures, is associated with very high mortality. In the last decade, significant progress has been made in the understanding of the mechanisms leading to decompensation and ACLF. As portal hypertension advances, bacterial translocation across an impaired gut barrier culminates in endotoxaemia, systemic inflammation and cirrhosis-associated immune dysfunction (CAID). Gut-derived systemic inflammation and CAID have become the logical targets for innovative therapies that prevent hepatic decompensation episodes and the progression to ACLF.Furthermore, classification of disease and biomarker discovery to personalise care have advanced in the field. This review discusses progress in biomarker discovery and personalisation of treatment in decompensated cirrhosis and ACLF.

Therapeutic Plasma Exchange in Children With Acute and Acuteon-Chronic Liver Failure: A Single-Center Experience.

OBJECTIVES: Acute liver failure is a life-threatening condition that may result in death if liver transplant is not performed. The aim of our study was to evaluate patients with acute liver failure or acute-on-chronic liver failure who were followed and treated with therapeutic plasma exchange in a pediatric intensive care unit until they achieved clinical recovery or underwent liver transplant. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this retrospective, singlecenter study, we included patients with acute liver failure or acute-on-chronic liver failure who received therapeutic plasma exchange between April 2020 and December 2021. Clinical findings, laboratory findings, extracorporeal therapies, Pediatric Risk of Mortality III and liver injury unit scores and pretherapy and posttherapy hepatic encephalopathy scores, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, and Pediatric End-Stage Liver Disease score were retrospectively analyzed. RESULTS: Nineteen patients were included in the study. One patient was excluded because of positivity for COVID-19. The mean age of children was 62.06 months, ranging from 5 months to 16 years (12 boys, 6 girls). Thirteen patients (72.2%) had acute liver failure, and 5 patients (27.8%) had acute-on-chronic liver failure. No significant difference was shown for mean liver injury unit score (P = .673) and Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction score (P = .168) between patients who died and patients who received treatment at the inpatient clinic and transplant center. However, Pediatric Risk of Mortality score and the mean Model for End-Stage Liver Disease/Pediatric End-Stage Liver Disease scores before therapeutic plasma exchange and after therapeutic plasma exchange (after 3 consecutive days of treatment) were statistically significant (P = .001 and P = .004). CONCLUSIONS: Therapeutic plasma exchange may assist bridge to liver transplant or assist with spontaneous recovery of liver failure in pediatric patients with acute liver failure or acute-on-chronic liver failure.

Acute decompensation of cirrhosis versus acute-on-chronic liver failure: What are the clinical implications?

It is essential to identify the subgroup of patients who experience poorer outcomes in order to adapt clinical management effectively. In the context of liver disease, the earlier the identification occurs, the greater the range of therapeutic options that can be offered to patients. In the past, patients with acute decompensation (AD) of chronic liver disease were treated as a homogeneous group, with emphasis on identifying those at the highest risk of death. In the last 15 years, a differentiation has emerged between acute-on-chronic liver failure syndrome (ACLF) and AD, primarily due to indications that the latter is linked to a less favorable short-term prognosis. Nevertheless, the definition of ACLF varies among the different knowledge societies, making it challenging to assess its true impact compared with AD. Therefore, the purpose of this review is to provide a detailed analysis emphasizing the critical importance of identifying ACLF in the field of advanced liver disease. We will discuss the differences between Eastern and Western approaches, particularly in relation to the occurrence of liver failure and disease onset. Common characteristics, such as the dynamic nature of the disease course, will be highlighted. Finally, we will focus on two key clinical implications arising from these considerations: the prevention of ACLF before its onset and the clinical management strategies once it develops, including liver transplantation and withdrawal of care.

Influence of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease on the prognosis of patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure.

OBJECTIVES: Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) has clinical relevance in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). We investigated the association between MAFLD and prognosis in patients with ACLF. METHODS: We included patients with ACLF with available clinical data who visited our hospital for nearly 9 years. We compared the prognosis of patients in the different subgroups of ACLF and predicted the incidence of adverse outcomes. Moreover, a new model based on MAFLD was established. RESULTS: Among 339 participants, 75 had MAFLD. The prognosis of patients with ACLF was significantly correlated with MAFLD. Patients with ACLF with concomitant MAFLD tended to have a lower cumulative survival rate (p = 0.026) and a higher incidence of hepatorenal syndrome (9.33% versus 3.40%, p = 0.033) than those without MAFLD. We developed an TIM2 model and the area under the ROC curve of the new model for 30-day and 60-day mortality (0.759 and 0.748) was higher than other predictive methods. CONCLUSION: The presence of MAFLD in patients with HBV-related ACLF was associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality. Moreover, The TIM2 model is a high-performance prognostic score for HBV-related ACLF.

The clinical courses of HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure and a multi-state model to predict disease evolution.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a highly dynamic syndrome. The objective of this study was to delineate the clinical course of patients with HBV-ACLF and to develop a model to estimate the temporal evolution of disease severity. METHODS: We enrolled eligible patients from 2 large, multicenter prospective cohorts. The ACLF grade, organ failures, and outcomes were assessed at multiple time points (days 1/4/7/14/21/28). Probabilities for ACLF transitions between these disease states and to death within 28 days were calculated using a multi-state model that used baseline information and updated ACLF status. The model was validated in independent patients. RESULTS: Among all the 445 patients with HBV-ACLF, 76 represented disease progression, 195 had a stable or fluctuating course, 8 with improvement, and the remaining 166 with resolution within 28-day follow-up. New coagulation (63.64%) or renal failure (45.45%) was frequently observed during early progression. Patients with disease progression had a higher incidence of new episodes of ascites [10 (13.16%) vs. 22 (5.96%), p = 0.027] and HE [13(17.11%) vs. 21 (5.69%), p = 0.001], and a significant increase in white blood cell count. The multi-state model represented dynamic areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves ranging from 0.71 to 0.84 for predicting all ACLF states and death at 4, 7, 14, 21, and 28 days post-enrollment and from 0.73 to 0.94 for predicting death alone, performing better than traditional prognostic scores. CONCLUSIONS: HBV-ACLF is a highly dynamic syndrome with reversibility. The multi-state model is a tool to estimate the temporal evolution of disease severity, which may inform clinical decisions on treatment.

Plasma exchange for acute and acute-on-chronic liver failure: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Plasma exchange (PE) is a promising therapeutic option in patients with acute liver failure (ALF) and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, the impact of PE on patient survival in these syndromes is unclear. We aimed to systematically investigate the use of PE in patients with ALF and ACLF compared with standard medical therapy (SMT). We searched PubMed/Embase/Cochrane databases to include all studies comparing PE versus SMT for patients ≥ 18 years of age with ALF and ACLF. Pooled risk ratios (RR) with corresponding 95% CIs were calculated by the Mantel-Haenszel method within a random-effect model. The primary outcome was 30-day survival for ACLF and ALF. Secondary outcomes were overall and 90-day survival for ALF and ACLF, respectively. Five studies, including 343 ALF patients (n = 174 PE vs. n = 169 SMT), and 20 studies, including 5,705 ACLF patients (n = 2,856 PE vs. n = 2,849 SMT), were analyzed. Compared with SMT, PE was significantly associated with higher 30-day (RR 1.41, 95% CI 1.06-1.87, p = 0.02) and overall (RR 1.35, 95% CI 1.12-1.63, p = 0.002) survival in ALF patients. In ACLF, PE was also significantly associated with higher 30-day (RR 1.36, 95% CI 1.22-1.52, p < 0.001) and 90-day (RR 1.21, 95% CI 1.10-1.34, p < 0.001) survival. On subgroup analysis of randomized controlled trials, results remained unchanged in ALF, but no differences in survival were found between PE and SMT in ACLF. In conclusion, PE is associated with improved survival in ALF and could improve survival in ACLF. PE may be considered in managing ALF and ACLF patients who are not liver transplant (LT) candidates or as a bridge to LT in otherwise eligible patients. Further randomized controlled trials are needed to confirm the survival benefit of PE in ACLF.

Pediatric Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is characterized by an acute hepatic insult happening in a patient with underlying cirrhosis with compromised hepatic reserve leading to development of systemic inflammation, sepsis, and organ failure resulting in poor outcome in majority. While Asia Pacific Association for Study of Liver Diseases (APASL) emphasizes on early diagnosis before development of organ failure, European Association for Study of Liver Diseases (EASL) mandates the presence of organ failures to define ACLF. There is a lack of consensus definition of pediatric ACLF although recent APASL guidelines have tried to address the issue. While Wilson disease (WD) and autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) are the most common cause of underlying cirrhosis in children, acute viral hepatitis and flares of WD and AIH are the commonest acute precipitating events. Poor outcomes [death and liver transplantation (LT)] ranging from 19 to 59% have been reported. Prognosis in pediatric ACLF is usually better than that in adults due to greater proportion of treatable etiologies, lesser organ failures, comorbidities and better hepatic reserves. APASL ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) score more than or equal to 11 is predictive of poor 28-90 d mortality. Treatment of pediatric ACLF relies mainly on prompt diagnosis and medical management of a potentially treatable etiology of underlying cirrhosis. Bridging therapies, especially high volume plasma exchange can be initiated early as a bridge to LT or native liver recovery. Those with no improvement in 4-7 d should undergo LT before development of sepsis or multi-organ failure.

Muscle function is superior to muscle mass in predicting 90-day mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: A prospective study.

OBJECTIVES: Low muscle mass has been found to be associated with adverse outcomes in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure. However, data regarding the prognostic role of low muscle function are limited. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the predictive effect of low muscle function on 90-d mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure. METHODS: This prospective study consecutively enrolled acute-on-chronic liver failure patients from March 2021 to October 2022. Muscle function was assessed using the liver frailty index, and the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve with the highest Youden index was used to determine the optimal cutoff values of liver frailty index for diagnosing low muscle function. RESULTS: The study included 126 acute-on-chronic liver failure patients. The median liver frailty index was 3.89 (0.83), with 51 (40.5) patients classified as having low muscle function. Multivariate Cox analysis identified low muscle function (hazard ratio = 4.309; 95% CI, 1.795-10.345; P = 0.001) and number of organ failures (hazard ratio = 4.202; 95% CI, 2.040-8.656; P < 0.001) as independent risk factors for 90-d mortality. However, the multivariate analysis did not retain the significant effect of low muscle mass. Furthermore, multivariable logistic analysis revealed that age (odds ratio = 1.042; 95% CI, 1.002-1.083; P = 0.038), organ failures (odds ratio = 2.572; 95% CI, 1.331-4.968; P = 0.005), and low muscle mass (odds ratio = 6.607; 95% CI, 2.579-16.927; P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for low muscle function. CONCLUSIONS: The prognostic value of low muscle function was found superior to that of low muscle mass in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure. Therefore, it is important to assess the muscle function and develop potential targeted treatment strategies in this population.

A combination of clot formation abnormalities in thromboelastometry has a high prognostic value in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure.

BACKGROUND: Global coagulation tests offer a better tool to assess procoagulant and anticoagulant pathways, fibrinolysis and clot firmness and evaluate more accurately coagulation defects compared to conventional coagulation tests. Their prognostic role in acute-on-chronic liver disease (ACLF) or acute decompensation (AD) has not been well established. AIMS: To assess the properties and prognostic value of the coagulation profile measured by rotational thromboelastometry (ROTEM) in ACLF and AD. METHODS: 84 consecutive patients (35 ACLF and 49 AD) were prospectively studied. Twenty healthy persons matched for age and gender were used as controls. 'Hypocoagulable' or 'hypercoagulable' profiles on admission were assessed based on nine ROTEM parameters and mortality was recorded at 30 and 90 days. RESULTS: Individual ROTEM parameters denoted significantly more hypocoagulability in patients compared to controls. 'Hypocoagulable' profile (defined as a composite of 4 or more ROTEM parameters outside the range) was associated with more severe liver disease assessed either as MELD or Child-Pugh scores ( P  < 0.001 for both) and higher 30-day mortality (Log-rank P  = 0.012). 'Hypocoagulable' profile (HR 3.160, 95% CI 1.003-9.957, P  = 0.049) and ACLF status (HR 23.786, 95% CI 3.115-181.614, P  = 0.002) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality, in multivariate model. A higher early mortality rate was shown in ACLF patients with 'hypocoagulable' phenotype compared to those without (Log-rank P  = 0.017). 'Hypocoagulable' profile was not associated with mortality in AD. CONCLUSION: 'Hypocoagulable' profile was associated with more advanced liver disease and higher short-term mortality in patients with ACLF.

A nomogram based on psoas muscle index predicting long-term cirrhosis incidence in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related acute­on­chronic liver failure.

There is a lack of scoring system to predict the occurrence of cirrhosis in individuals with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in the absence of cirrhosis. The goal of this study was to develop a psoas muscle index (PMI)-based nomogram for cirrhosis risk in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related ACLF. We included 274 non-cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients who were randomly assigned to training and validation groups. Logistic analyses were performed to identify risk factors for cirrhosis. A nomogram was then constructed. The predictive performance of the nomogram was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). During the 360-day follow-up, 44.5% (122/274) of non-cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients developed cirrhosis. A higher PMI at the L3 level was correlated with a decreased risk of long-term cirrhosis occurrence (OR 0.677, 95% CI 0.518-0.885, P = 0.004). The nomogram incorporating PMI, age, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and international normalized ratio (INR), indicated satisfactory predictive performance for cirrhosis risk stratification in ACLF population. The nomograms had an AUROC of 0.812 (95% CI 0.747-0.866) and 0.824 (95% CI 0.730-0.896) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curves displayed excellent predictive accuracy of the nomogram in both sets. In both cohorts, the DCA verified the nomogram's clinical efficacy. In non-cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients, a greater PMI appears to protect against long-term cirrhosis occurrence. Strong predictive performance has been demonstrated by PMI-based nomograms in assessing the likelihood of 1-year cirrhosis in those with HBV-ACLF.

[Analysis of the prognosis and survival of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure].

Objective: To explore the influencing factors and the impact of artificial liver treatment on the prognosis and survival of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Methods: Clinical data from 201 cases with ACLF from January 2016 to December 2019 was retrospectively analyzed. The survival rate was calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test of univariate analysis, and the multivariate analysis of the stepwise Cox regression forward method. Results: The median survival time of patients was 6 months, and the survival rates at 6, 9, and 12 months were 51.2%, 38.3%, and 29.9%, respectively. In univariate analysis, age, presence or absence of hypertension and upper gastrointestinal bleeding, treatment method, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and cholinesterase were associated with prognosis (P < 0.05). Multivariate regression analysis results showed that MELD score was the main factor affecting the 1-year prognosis of ACLF patients (P = 0.002). Artificial liver treatment was beneficial for the 1-year prognosis of ACLF patients aged < 50 years or with a MELD score of ≥20 (P < 0.05 ). The relative risk ratio (RR) of mortality was 2.55 times higher in patients with advanced age (≥50 years old) than that of younger patients (P < 0.001). Regression analysis was performed using age as a stratification factor, and upper gastrointestinal bleeding was related to the prognosis of younger patients, while choline esterase was related to the prognosis of advanced age. Regression analysis after stratified MELD score showed that age and hypertension were related to the prognosis of patients with MELD score < 20, and treatment method and age were related to the prognosis of patients with MELD score≥20. Conclusion: Artificial liver treatment is beneficial for the 1-year prognosis of ACLF patients. Age, MELD score, hypertension, and upper gastrointestinal bleeding are independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of ACLF patients.

Toward a more precise prognostic stratification in acute decompensation of cirrhosis: The Padua model 2.0.

BACKGROUND: The clinical course of acutely decompensated cirrhosis (AD) is heterogeneous. Presepsin (PSP) is a plasmatic biomarker that reflects Toll-like receptor activity and systemic inflammation. We conducted a prospective study to: (1) measure PSP in AD and (2) assess whether PSP in AD can predict the development of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). METHODS: Patients with AD were prospectively recruited at admission and underwent determination of PSP. In study part 1, we compared PSP in AD versus controls (stable decompensated and compensated cirrhosis). In study part 2, we prospectively followed patients with AD for 1 year and evaluated predictors of ACLF. RESULTS: One hundred and seventy three patients with AD were included (median MELD: 18; CLIF-C AD score: 54). Compared with controls, patients with AD had higher levels of PSP (674 ng/L vs. 310 ng/L vs. 157 ng/L; p < 0.001). In patients with AD, Child-Pugh C and acute kidney injury were associated with higher levels of PSP. During the follow-up, 52 patients developed ACLF (median time from recruitment: 66 days). PSP, CLIF-C AD score, and Child-Pugh stage were independently associated with ACLF. A predictive model combining these variables (Padua model 2.0) accurately identified patients at higher risk of ACLF (AUROC 0.864; 95% CI 0.780-0.947; sensitivity 82.9%, specificity 76.7%). In patients at lower risk of ACLF based on a CLIF-C AD <50, a PSP >674 ng/L could discriminate between two groups at significantly different risk of ACLF. Finally, in patients who did not develop ACLF, baseline PSP was significantly higher in those who progressed toward unstable versus stable decompensated cirrhosis. CONCLUSION: The Padua model 2.0 can be used to identify patients with AD at high risk of ACLF. If these results are validated by external cohorts, PSP could become a new biomarker to improve risk stratification in AD.