Application of Medical Statistical and Machine Learning Methods in the Age Estimation of Living Individuals.

In the study of age estimation in living individuals, a lot of data needs to be analyzed by mathematical statistics, and reasonable medical statistical methods play an important role in data design and analysis. The selection of accurate and appropriate statistical methods is one of the key factors affecting the quality of research results. This paper reviews the principles and applicable principles of the commonly used medical statistical methods such as descriptive statistics, difference analysis, consistency test and multivariate statistical analysis, as well as machine learning methods such as shallow learning and deep learning in the age estimation research of living individuals, and summarizes the relevance and application prospects between medical statistical methods and machine learning methods. This paper aims to provide technical guidance for the age estimation research of living individuals to obtain more scientific and accurate results.

Age Estimation by Machine Learning and CT-Multiplanar Reformation of Cranial Sutures in Northern Chinese Han Adults.

OBJECTIVES: To establish age estimation models of northern Chinese Han adults using cranial suture images obtained by CT and multiplanar reformation (MPR), and to explore the applicability of cranial suture closure rule in age estimation of northern Chinese Han population. METHODS: The head CT samples of 132 northern Chinese Han adults aged 29-80 years were retrospectively collected. Volume reconstruction (VR) and MPR were performed on the skull, and 160 cranial suture tomography images were generated for each sample. Then the MPR images of cranial sutures were scored according to the closure grading criteria, and the mean closure grades of sagittal suture, coronal sutures (both left and right) and lambdoid sutures (both left and right) were calculated respectively. Finally taking the above grades as independent variables, the linear regression model and four machine learning models for age estimation (gradient boosting regression, support vector regression, decision tree regression and Bayesian ridge regression) were established for northern Chinese Han adults age estimation. The accuracy of each model was evaluated. RESULTS: Each cranial suture closure grade was positively correlated with age and the correlation of sagittal suture was the highest. All four machine learning models had higher age estimation accuracy than linear regression model. The support vector regression model had the highest accuracy among the machine learning models with a mean absolute error of 9.542 years. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of skull CT-MPR and machine learning model can be used for age estimation in northern Chinese Han adults, but it is still necessary to combine with other adult age estimation indicators in forensic practice.

Adults Ischium Age Estimation Based on Deep Learning and 3D CT Reconstruction.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a deep learning model for automated age estimation based on 3D CT reconstructed images of Han population in western China, and evaluate its feasibility and reliability. METHODS: The retrospective pelvic CT imaging data of 1 200 samples (600 males and 600 females) aged 20.0 to 80.0 years in western China were collected and reconstructed into 3D virtual bone models. The images of the ischial tuberosity feature region were extracted to create sex-specific and left/right site-specific sample libraries. Using the ResNet34 model, 500 samples of different sexes were randomly selected as training and verification set, the remaining samples were used as testing set. Initialization and transfer learning were used to train images that distinguish sex and left/right site. Mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used as primary indicators to evaluate the model. RESULTS: Prediction results varied between sexes, with bilateral models outperformed left/right unilateral ones, and transfer learning models showed superior performance over initial models. In the prediction results of bilateral transfer learning models, the male MAE was 7.74 years and RMSE was 9.73 years, the female MAE was 6.27 years and RMSE was 7.82 years, and the mixed sexes MAE was 6.64 years and RMSE was 8.43 years. CONCLUSIONS: The skeletal age estimation model, utilizing ischial tuberosity images of Han population in western China and employing the ResNet34 combined with transfer learning, can effectively estimate adult ischium age.

The utility of sternum in creating a biological profile: A review and future directions.

This review delves into the forensic utility of the sternum in creating a biological profile, focusing on sex, stature, and age estimation. Emphasizing the sternum's significance in challenging scenarios, the study supports the combined length of the manubrium and sternal body as a crucial indicator in sex and stature estimation. However, it highlights the need for caution in applying findings across diverse populations and questions the reliability of Hyrtl's law. Age estimation, primarily based on morphological changes and ossification ages, is explored, with one study showing promise but requiring further validation. While acknowledging the sternum's advantages, the review underscores potential limitations and the absence of specific studies on ancestry estimation, leaving this aspect open for future research. In conclusion, the review provides a comprehensive overview of the sternum's forensic applications, urging continued research to enhance accuracy and applicability.

Skeletal maturation evaluation: which is the reliability of dental calcification Demirjian method versus hand-wrist X-ray in growing subjects? A systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: This systematic review aimed at evaluating the reliability of dental maturation (DM) according to Demirjian method compared to hand and wrist maturation (HWM) to assess skeletal maturity (SM) in growing subjects, to identify the teeth and the corresponding mineralisation stages related to the pubertal growth spurt (PGS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science were systematically searched until January 5th, 2024, to identify observational cross-sectional studies that assessed the reliability of Demirjian method compared to the HWM methods (i.e., Grave and Brown and Fishman) in growing subjects. The quality assessment was evaluated using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) Critical Appraisal Checklist. RESULTS: Out of 136 papers suitable for title/abstract screening, 19 included studies. Of them, 17 papers showed the reliability of Demirjian DM method compared to HWM Fishman and Grave and Brown methods to assess SM in growing subjects. According to JBI Critical Appraisal Checklist, 12 papers were high-quality studies and 7 papers were medium-quality studies.  Conclusions: The mandibular second molar might be considered as the best indicator compared to other teeth and that the peak of growth occurs no earlier than stage F in females and stage G in males according to Demirjian method. Also, the mandibular canine might be analysed as indicator of SM in males, and results suggest that the peak of growth occurs no earlier than maturation stage F according to Demirjian method, only in male subjects. Further studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Is hand-wrist radiography still necessary in orthodontic treatment planning?

OBJECTIVES: The aim of our study is to compare the relationship between hand-wrist and cervical vertebra maturation stages with chronological age and to investigate the effect of malocclusion type on the relationship between these methods. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Hand-wrist and cephalometric radiographs of 1000 patients (526 females, 474 males) with a mean age of 13.41 ± 1.83 were analyzed. The methods of Bacetti et al. were used for the cervical vertebra maturation stage, and Björk, Grave and Brown's methods were used for the hand-wrist maturation stage. One-way ANOVA test was applied to compare skeletal classes between them. Tukey post hoc test was used to determine the differences. The relationship between the malocclusion type, cervical vertebra and hand-wrist maturation stages was evaluated with the Spearman correlation test. RESULTS: Spearman's correlation coefficient was 0.831, 0.831 and 0.760 in Class I, II and III females, respectively. In males, it was calculated as 0.844, 0.889 and 0.906, respectively. When sex and malocclusion were not differentiated, the correlation was found to be 0.887. All were statistically significant (P < 0.001). The highest correlation was observed in class III males, while the lowest was found in class III females. CONCLUSION: Cervical vertebrae can be used safely to assess pubertal spurt without hand-wrist radiography. Diagnosing growth and development stages from cephalometric images is important in reducing additional workload and preventing radiation risk.

Mapping an intelligent algorithm for predicting female adolescents' cervical vertebrae maturation stage with high recall and accuracy.

BACKGROUNDS AND OBJECTIVES: The present study was designed to define a novel algorithm capable of predicting female adolescents' cervical vertebrae maturation stage with high recall and accuracy. METHODS: A total of 560 female cephalograms were collected, and cephalograms with unclear vertebral shapes and deformed scales were removed. 480 films from female adolescents (mean age: 11.5 years; age range: 6-19 years) were used for the model development phase, and 80 subjects were randomly and stratified allocated to the validation cohort to further assess the model's performance. Derived significant predictive parameters from 15 anatomic points and 25 quantitative parameters of the second to fourth cervical vertebrae (C2-C4) to establish the ordinary logistic regression model. Evaluation metrics including precision, recall, and F1 score are employed to assess the efficacy of the models in each identified cervical vertebrae maturation stage (iCS). In cases of confusion and mispredictions, the model underwent modification to improve consistency. RESULTS: Four significant parameters, including chronological age, the ratio of D3 to AH3 (D3:AH3), anterosuperior angle of C4 (@4), and distance between C3lp and C4up (C3lp-C4up) were administered into the ordinary regression model. The primary predicting model that implements the novel algorithm was built and the performance evaluation with all stages of 93.96% for accuracy, 93.98% for precision, 93.98% for recall, and 93.95% for F1-score were obtained. Despite the hybrid logistic-based model achieving high accuracy, the unsatisfactory performance of stage estimation was noticed for iCS3 in the primary cohort (89.17%) and validation cohort (85.00%). Through bivariate logistic regression analysis, the posterior height of C4 (PH4) was further selected in the iCS3 to establish a corrected model, thus the evaluation metrics were upgraded to 95.83% and 90.00%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: An unbiased and objective assessment of the cervical vertebrae maturation (CVM) method can function as a decision-support tool, assisting in the evaluation of the optimal timing for treatment in growing adults. Our novel proposed logistic model yielded individual formulas for each specific CVM stage and attained exceptional performance, indicating the capability to function as a benchmark for maturity evaluation in clinical craniofacial orthopedics for Chinese female adolescents.

Are computed tomography images of the mandible useful in age and sex determination? A forensic science meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This meta-analysis addresses the use of mandibular computed tomography (CT) scans for age and/or sex determination in forensic science. METHODS: Six databases were searched until June 2023, using the keyword "mandible" combined with keywords related to "multislice computed tomography" (MCT) or "cone-beam computed tomography" (CBCT) and keywords related to "skeletal age determination" or "sex determination analysis." MAIN RESULTS: Among the 23 studies included, 11 used MCT and 12 used CBCT to perform forensic assessments. Age determination was the aim of a single study, sex and agedeterminations were the objective of five studies, and the other studies investigated the determination of sex only. Metaanalysis could be performed only for sex determination. CONCLUSIONS: Mandible measurements are useful in sex determination, as the bicondylar and bigonial breadth are larger in males than in females. For the mandible angle, the meta-analysis results confirm sex dimorphism in CBCT scans but not in MCT scans. For age estimation, further studies are needed to prove that the mandible hole is a reliable parameter for age estimation. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42021260967.

Artificial intelligence in age and sex determination using maxillofacial radiographs: A systematic review.

In the past few years, there has been an enormous increase in the application of artificial intelligence and its adoption in multiple fields, including healthcare. Forensic medicine and forensic odontology have tremendous scope for development using AI. In cases of severe burns, complete loss of tissue, complete or partial loss of bony structure, decayed bodies, mass disaster victim identification, etc., there is a need for prompt identification of the bony remains. The mandible, is the strongest bone of the facial region, is highly resistant to undue mechanical, chemical or physical impacts and has been widely used in many studies to determine age and sexual dimorphism. Radiographic estimation of the jaw bone for age and sex is more workable since it is simple and can be applied equally to both dead and living cases to aid in the identification process. Hence, this systematic review is focused on various AI tools for age and sex determination in maxillofacial radiographs. The data was obtained through searching for the articles across various search engines, published from January 2013 to March 2023. QUADAS 2 was used for qualitative synthesis, followed by a Cochrane diagnostic test accuracy review for the risk of bias analysis of the included studies. The results of the studies are highly optimistic. The accuracy and precision obtained are comparable to those of a human examiner. These models, when designed with the right kind of data, can be of tremendous use in medico legal scenarios and disaster victim identification.

Bone Age Determination of Epiphyseal Fusion at Knee Joint and Its Correlation with Chronological Age.

Background and Objectives: Bone age determination is a valuable method for forensic and disaster identifications of unknown human remains, as well as for medical and surgical procedural purposes. This retrospective research study aimed to determine the age based on epiphyseal fusion stages and investigate differences related to gender. Materials and Methods: X-rays of the knee were collected from medical imaging centers in hospitals in the south of Jordan and examined by two observers who determined the bone epiphyseal phase of closure for the femur, tibia, and fibula bone ends close to the knee based on a three-stage classification. Results: The main results revealed that females showed earlier epiphyseal union (Stage II) at the lower end of the femur and the upper ends of the tibia and fibula compared to males. In males, the start of complete union (Stage III) at knee bones was seen at the age of 17-18 years, while in females, it was seen at the age of 16-17 years. Additionally, knee bones showed complete union in 100% of males and females in the age groups 21-22 years and 20-21 years, respectively. Although females showed an earlier start and end of epiphyseal complete union than males, analysis of collected data showed no significant age differences between males and females at the three stages of epiphyseal union of the knee bones. Conclusions: Findings of the radiographic analysis of bone epiphyseal fusion at the knee joint are a helpful method for chronological age determination. This study supports the gender and ethnicity variation among different geographical locations. Studies with a high sample number would be needed to validate our findings.

Age Estimation Based on Computed Tomography Analysis of the Scapula.

Background and Objectives: Age estimation from skeletal remains and in living individuals is an important issue for human identification, and also plays a critical role in judicial proceedings for migrants. Forensic analysis of ossification centers is the main evaluation method for age estimation, and ossification degree can be determined using computed tomography analysis. The purpose of this study is to investigate the applicability of CT (computed tomography) in the analysis of left scapula ossification centers, for forensic age estimation in Turkish society. Materials and Methods: We analyzed six ossification centers of the left scapula and these ossification centers are the coracoid, subcoracoid, coracoid apex, acromial, glenoid, and inferior angle ossification centers. A pediatric radiologist analyzed these six ossification centers of the scapula by using a staging method defined by Schmeling et al. in 2004. Two months after the first assessment, 20 randomly selected cases was reanalyzed by the first observer and by another pediatric radiologist. Correlation between the age and ossification stage was assessed using Spearman's nonparametric correlation test. Linear regression analysis was performed using a backwards model. Cohen's kappa coefficient was used for evaluating interobserver and intraobserver variability. Results: In this retrospective study, 397 (248 male and 149 female) cases were evaluated. Ages ranged between 7.1 and 30.9. The mean age was 19.83 ± 6.49. We determined a positive significant correlation between the age and the ossification stages of ossification centers analyzed in both sexes. In each ossification center, except inferior angle, all of the stage 1 and 2 cases in both sexes were under 18 years old. Intraobserver and interobserver evaluations showed that reproducibility and consistency of the method was relatively good. Conclusions: The present study indicated that CT analysis of scapula ossification centers might be helpful in forensic age assessment of living individuals and dry bones.

Considerations for age estimation accuracy: Method-derived outcomes and practitioner interpretations.

Recent research observed 92% accuracy for age-at-death estimations by U.S. forensic anthropologists. The present study compares this case report level accuracy to method level accuracy for the most commonly used methods in U.S. casework, drawing from the Forensic Anthropology Database for Assessing Methods Accuracy (FADAMA). Method application rate (i.e., how often a method is used in casework) was analyzed for n = 641 cases and identified 15 methods with an application rate >45 cases, and the present study focused further analyses on these 15 methods. Of the 15, only four yielded accuracies greater than or equal to the 92% documented for case-report level accuracy. The other 11 methods produced accuracy rates ranging from 54% to 91%, with six of these below 70% This disconnect between highly accurate age estimations at the case report level compared to the poor performance at method level suggests that practitioner interpretation and synthesis of the methods' outcomes is a critical step for increasing the accuracy rates of the age estimations as reported on the final case report. This inference was further supported by the study's results which indicated that practitioner interpretations of frequently used method combinations improve accuracy and age range width of age estimation. The study also performed a Fisher's Exact test to assess whether case report-level accuracy differed with the number of aging methods used in a case, and found no significant differences.

Evaluating the Robustness of a Deep Learning Bone Age Algorithm to Clinical Image Variation Using Computational Stress Testing.

Purpose To evaluate the robustness of an award-winning bone age deep learning (DL) model to extensive variations in image appearance. Materials and Methods In December 2021, the DL bone age model that won the 2017 RSNA Pediatric Bone Age Challenge was retrospectively evaluated using the RSNA validation set (1425 pediatric hand radiographs; internal test set in this study) and the Digital Hand Atlas (DHA) (1202 pediatric hand radiographs; external test set). Each test image underwent seven types of transformations (rotations, flips, brightness, contrast, inversion, laterality marker, and resolution) to represent a range of image appearances, many of which simulate real-world variations. Computational "stress tests" were performed by comparing the model's predictions on baseline and transformed images. Mean absolute differences (MADs) of predicted bone ages compared with radiologist-determined ground truth on baseline versus transformed images were compared using Wilcoxon signed rank tests. The proportion of clinically significant errors (CSEs) was compared using McNemar tests. Results There was no evidence of a difference in MAD of the model on the two baseline test sets (RSNA = 6.8 months, DHA = 6.9 months; P = .05), indicating good model generalization to external data. Except for the RSNA dataset images with an appended radiologic laterality marker (P = .86), there were significant differences in MAD for both the DHA and RSNA datasets among other transformation groups (rotations, flips, brightness, contrast, inversion, and resolution). There were significant differences in proportion of CSEs for 57% of the image transformations (19 of 33) performed on the DHA dataset. Conclusion Although an award-winning pediatric bone age DL model generalized well to curated external images, it had inconsistent predictions on images that had undergone simple transformations reflective of several real-world variations in image appearance. Keywords: Pediatrics, Hand, Convolutional Neural Network, Radiography Supplemental material is available for this article. © RSNA, 2024 See also commentary by Faghani and Erickson in this issue.

Body size and three estimates of skeletal age: Relationships with strength and motor performance among male soccer players 9-12 and 13-16 years.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the associations between height, weight, and three estimates of skeletal age (SA) and the strength and motor performance of male soccer players in two chronological age (CA) groups, 9-12 (n = 60) and 13-16 (n = 52) years. METHODS: Height, weight, strength (grip), speed (5 m, 20 m sprints), acceleration (time at crossing 10 m in 20 m sprint), agility (figure-of-eight run), power (vertical jump), and endurance (intermittent shuttle run) were measured. SA was assessed with the TW2 RUS, TW3 RUS, and Fels methods; each SA was expressed as the standardized residual of the regression of SA on CA (SAsr). Hierarchical multiple regression was used. RESULTS: Body size accounted for ≥50% of the variance in grip strength in both CA groups; the body size × SAsr for each method and SAsr alone added little to the explained variance. Body size, body size × SAsr interactions, and SAsr per se with each method accounted for small percentages of variance in motor tasks among players 9-12 years, while body size explained a larger proportion of variance in motor tasks (except the endurance run) among players 13-16 years; body size × SAsr interactions for TW2 and TW3 more so than Fels added to the explained variances. For the endurance run, only SAsr per se with each method accounted for significant portions of the variance. CONCLUSION: Body size and the three estimates of SA significantly influenced strength and motor performance, but the explained variance varied between CA groups and among SA methods and performance tasks.

Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: is there a relationship between Risser staging and the proximal humerus ossification system?

PURPOSE: To evaluate whether there is a mismatch between Risser staging and the proximal humerus ossification system (PHOS); and to analyze the correlation in the skeletal maturity stages between the two humeral epiphyses. METHODS: Data from patients aged 10 to 18 years with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) seen between 2018 to 2021 were analyzed. In an anteroposterior (AP) spine radiograph the ossification process was evaluated using the Risser classification method and bilateral PHOS (if both humeral epiphyses were visualized). A mismatch between methods was defined as a Risser 0-1 (relatively skeletally immature) with a PHOS 4-5 (skeletally mature), or a Risser 2-5 (relatively skeletally mature) with a PHOS 1-3 (skeletally immature). The McNemar test was used to calculate the significance of the mismatch. RESULTS: A mismatch between Risser and PHOS stages was observed in 28.5% of 105 patients, which was statistically significant (p < 0.001). Of the 49 patients with a Risser 0-1, 55.1% (n = 27) had a PHOS 4-5. None of the patients with a Risser 2-5 had a PHOS 1-3. In the 47 patients in whom both humeri were visualized, the absolute correlation between the left and right PHOS values was 95.7%. CONCLUSION: Of AIS patients who are relatively skeletally immature according to Risser staging, more than half may be skeletally mature when measured with PHOS. In patients with a Risser 0-1, it is recommended to measure skeletal maturity in an AP spine radiograph using the PHOS method, which may more accurately guide treatment decision-making, without the need to visualize both humeral epiphyses in this radiographic projection. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: IV.

Comparing a common clavicle maturation-based age estimation method to ordinary regression analyses with quadratic and sex-specific interaction terms in adolescents.

Established methods of age estimation are based on correlating defined maturation stages of bony structures with tables representing the observed range of biological ages in the majority of cases. In this retrospective monocentric study in southwestern Germany, common age estimation methodology was assessed in n = 198 subjects at the age of 25 or younger by analyzing the influence of age, quadratic age, biological sex and age-sex interaction on the ossification stages of the medial epiphysis fugue. Three readers (ICC ≥ 0.81 for left/right side) evaluated routine care computed tomography images of the clavicle with a slice thickness of 1 mm. By using least square regression analyses, to determine the real biological age a quadratic function was determined corrected for the age estimated by established methods and sex (R2 = 0.6 each side), reducing the mean absolute error and root mean squared error in the age estimation of women (2.57 and 3.19) and men (2.57 and 3.47) to 1.54 and 1.82 for women, and 1.54 and 2.25 for men. In women, the medial clavicle epiphysis seem to fuse faster, which was particularly observable from approximately 18 years of age. Before that age, the estimation method was relatively close to the ideal correlation between assessed and real age. To conclude, the presented new method enables more precise age estimation in individuals and facilitates the determination and quantification of additional variables, quantifying their influence on the maturation of the medial clavicle epiphysis based on the established ossification stages.

3D CT based age estimation from the pubic symphyseal surface in an Indian population using the Chen et al. method.

The pubic symphyseal surface is one of the reliable parameters used to estimate age, as it consistently shows degenerative observational variations throughout the lifespan, particularly from the 3rd decade onwards. These changes have been extensively studied to generate population-specific models for forensic age estimation. In the past, there have been many studies used to estimate age at death from the pubis symphysis using skeletal remains. However, due to dearth of contemporary skeletal repositories, and the resource intensive maceration process required for obtaining examination quality bones, studies on cadaver are difficult to conduct. Moreover, due to recent advancements in the science of medical imaging, newer radiological modalities like computed tomography (CT) can be used to visualize previously inaccessible areas such as the pubic symphysis in cadavers and the living alike, and subsequent age estimation is feasible. Recently, Chen et al. (2008, 2011) conducted a study on the cadaveric Chinese Han population in both males and females separately by using nine morphological changes and scoring them according to the changes that occurred. The present study aimed to estimate an individual's age using CT images of the pubic symphysis, by applying the scoring method for its morphological changes given by Chen et al. The present study was conducted on 263 randomly selected participants (Males = 154, Females = 109), who came for diagnostic purposes to the hospital. The CT images of these individuals were collected after obtaining ethical approval and proper consent from the study participants. Each of the morphological indicators was assessed, and appropriate scores were given according to criteria given by Chen et al. In the present study, both linear and multiple regression models to estimate age using the pubic symphyseal morphological changes were developed. From the results of the present study, it was concluded that the Chen et al. scoring method can be used to accurately estimate age from 3DCT images of the living, and the models derived in the present study could be applicable to individuals from the Indian subcontinent.