Pathogenicity and virulence of O'nyong-nyong virus: A less studied Togaviridae with pandemic potential.

O'nyong-nyong virus (ONNV) is a neglected mosquito-borne alphavirus belonging to the Togaviridae family. ONNV is known to be responsible for sporadic outbreaks of acute febrile disease and polyarthralgia in Africa. As climate change increases the geographical range of known and potential new vectors, recent data indicate a possibility for ONNV to spread outside of the African continent and grow into a greater public health concern. In this review, we summarise the current knowledge on ONNV epidemiology, host-pathogen interactions, vector-virus responses, and insights into possible avenues to control risk of further epidemics. In this review, the limited ONNV literature is compared and correlated to other findings on mainly Old World alphaviruses. We highlight and discuss studies that investigate viral and host factors that determine viral-vector specificity, along with important mechanisms that determine severity and disease outcome of ONNV infection.

Evolutionary Profile of Mayaro Virus in the Americas: An Update into Genome Variability.

The Mayaro virus (MAYV) is an arbovirus with emerging potential, though with a limited understanding of its epidemiology and evolution due to the lack of studies and surveillance. Here, we investigated 71 MAYV genome sequences from the Americas available at GenBank and characterized the phylogenetic relationship among virus strains. A phylogenetic analysis showed that sequences were grouped according to the genotypes L, D, and N. Genotype D sequences were closely related to sequences collected in adjacent years and from their respective countries, suggesting that isolates may have originated from circulating lineages. The coalescent analysis demonstrated similar results, indicating the continuous circulation of the virus between countries as well. An unidentified sequence from the USA was grouped with genotype D, suggesting the insertion of this genotype in the country. Furthermore, the recombination analysis detected homologous and three heterologous hybrids which presented an insertion into the nsP3 protein. Amino acid substitutions among sequences indicated selective pressure sites, suggesting viral adaptability. This also impacted the binding affinity between the E1-E2 protein complex and the Mxra8 receptor, associated with MAYV entry into human cells. These results provide information for a better understanding of genotypes circulating in the Americas.

Molecular Epidemiology of Mayaro Virus among Febrile Patients, Roraima State, Brazil, 2018-2021.

We detected Mayaro virus (MAYV) in 3.4% (28/822) of febrile patients tested during 2018-2021 from Roraima State, Brazil. We also isolated MAYV strains and confirmed that these cases were caused by genotype D. Improved surveillance is needed to better determine the burden of MAYV in the Amazon Region.

Exposure dynamics of Ross River virus in horses - Horses as potential sentinels (a One Health approach).

Ross River virus (RRV), the most medically and economically important arbovirus in Australia, has been the most prevalent arbovirus infections in humans for many years. Infected humans and horses often suffer similar clinical symptoms. We conducted a prospective longitudinal study over a 3.5-year period to investigate the exposure dynamics of RRV in three foal cohorts (n = 32) born in a subtropical region of South East Queensland, Australia, between 2020 and 2022. RRV-specific seroconversion was detected in 56% (n = 18) of foals with a median time to seroconversion, after waning of maternal antibodies, of 429 days (95% CI: 294-582). The median age at seroconversion was 69 weeks (95% CI: 53-57). Seroconversion events were only detected between December and March (Southern Hemisphere summer) over the entire study period. Cox proportion hazards regression analyses revealed that seroconversions were significantly (p < 0.05) associated with air temperature in the month of seroconversion. Time-lags in meteorological variables were not significantly (p > 0.05) associated with seroconversion, except for relative humidity (p = 0.036 at 2-month time-lag). This is in contrast to research results of RRV infection in humans, which peaked between March and May (Autumn) and with a 0-3 month time-lag for various meteorological risk factors. Therefore, horses may be suitable sentinels for monitoring active arbovirus circulation and could be used for early arbovirus outbreak detection in human populations.

Testing the intrinsic mechanisms driving the dynamics of Ross River Virus across Australia.

The mechanisms driving dynamics of many epidemiologically important mosquito-borne pathogens are complex, involving combinations of vector and host factors (e.g., species composition and life-history traits), and factors associated with transmission and reporting. Understanding which intrinsic mechanisms contribute most to observed disease dynamics is important, yet often poorly understood. Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most important mosquito-borne disease, with variable transmission dynamics across geographic regions. We used deterministic ordinary differential equation models to test mechanisms driving RRV dynamics across major epidemic centers in Brisbane, Darwin, Mandurah, Mildura, Gippsland, Renmark, Murray Bridge, and Coorong. We considered models with up to two vector species (Aedes vigilax, Culex annulirostris, Aedes camptorhynchus, Culex globocoxitus), two reservoir hosts (macropods, possums), seasonal transmission effects, and transmission parameters. We fit models against long-term RRV surveillance data (1991-2017) and used Akaike Information Criterion to select important mechanisms. The combination of two vector species, two reservoir hosts, and seasonal transmission effects explained RRV dynamics best across sites. Estimated vector-human transmission rate (average ß = 8.04x10-4per vector per day) was similar despite different dynamics. Models estimate 43% underreporting of RRV infections. Findings enhance understanding of RRV transmission mechanisms, provide disease parameter estimates which can be used to guide future research into public health improvements and offer a basis to evaluate mitigation practices.

On the prediction of SAV transmission among Norwegian aquaculture sites.

Pancreas Disease (PD) is a viral disease that affects Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in Norwegian, Scottish and Irish aquaculture. It is caused by salmonid alphavirus (SAV) and represents a significant problem in salmonid farming. Infection with SAV leads to reduced growth, mortality, product downgrading, and has a significant financial impact for the farms. The overall aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of various factors on the transmission of SAV and to create a predictive model capable of providing an early warning system for salmon farms within the Norwegian waters. Using a combination of publicly available databases, specifically BarentsWatch, and privately held PCR analyses a feature set consisting of 11 unique features was created based on the input parameters of the databases. An ensemble model was developed based on this feature set using XG-Boost, Ada-Boost, Random Forest and a Multilayer Perceptron. It was possible to successfully predict SAV transmission with 94.4% accuracy. Moreover, it was possible to predict SAV transmission 8 weeks in advance of a 'PD registration' at individual aquaculture salmon farming sites. Important predictors included well boat movement, environmental factors, proximity to sites with a 'PD registration' and seasonality.

Low Risk for Ross River Virus Infection in Expeditionary Forces Training in Australia Demonstrated by a Serological Survey of Marine Rotational Force-Darwin, 2012-2018.

On an annual basis, approximately 2,500 U.S. Marines and Sailors deploy to Australia on 6-month training rotations. Active duty personnel are generally immunologically naïve to pathogens endemic to tropical Australia, a vulnerability that could significantly impact medical readiness. To estimate risk, we screened 628 post-deployment serum samples by ELISA for serological evidence of infection with Ross River virus (RRV), a mosquito-borne alphavirus endemic to tropical Australia. Samples that tested above the negative cutoff value were paired with their pre-deployment samples to identify deployment-related seroconversion. These paired samples were further investigated with a live virus neutralization assay to assess specificity. There was a single RRV seroconversion and 49 false-positive results. In the context of these analyses (i.e., limited sample numbers collected between the months of March and October), we assess the RRV risk to MRFD as low and encourage strategies such as avoiding and preventing mosquito bites to mitigate the existing risk over widespread vaccination programs, if an FDA-approved vaccine becomes available. The Panbio RRV ELISA lacks the specificity to draw conclusions based on seropositivity from large-scale surveys of U.S. personnel.

Differential Susceptibility of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus Mosquitoes to Infection by Mayaro Virus Strains.

Mayaro virus (MAYV) is an arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) belonging to the family Togaviridae, genus Alphavirus. In recent years, the geographic distribution of MAYV may have expanded north from South and Central America into the Caribbean Islands. Although Haemagogus janthinomys is considered the main vector for MAYV, the virus has also been isolated from other mosquitoes, including Aedes aegypti, a widespread species that serves as the main vector for highly epidemic viruses. Given the possible expansion and outbreaks of MAYV in Latin America, it is possible that MAYV might be adapting to be efficiently transmitted by urban vectors. Therefore, to investigate this possibility, we evaluated the vector competence of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes to transmit MAYV isolated during a year of low or high MAYV transmission. Adult Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were orally infected with the MAYV strains, and the infection, dissemination, and transmission rates were calculated to evaluate their vector competence. Overall, we found higher infection, dissemination, and transmission rates in both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes infected with the strain isolated during a MAYV outbreak, whereas low/no transmission was detected with the strain isolated during a year of low MAYV activity. Our results confirmed that both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus are competent vectors for the emergent MAYV. Our data suggest that strains isolated during MAYV outbreaks might be better fit to infect and be transmitted by urban vectors, raising serious concern about the epidemic potential of MAYV.

The first confirmed outbreak of Barmah Forest virus in Tasmania - 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the first outbreak of Barmah Forest virus (BFv) in Tasmania and identify potential vectors for BFv in Tasmania. METHODS: A retrospective descriptive study of BFv notifications in the Tasmanian Notifiable Diseases Database (TNDD) was conducted. Adult mosquitoes were sampled from areas near outbreak cases and pooled samples were tested for BFv. RESULTS: 27 cases of confirmed BFv were recorded in the TNDD between 12 March 1999 and 30 June 2019. Nine cases were recorded between 21 January and 10 May 2019 that were acquired in Tasmania, with eight included in this confirmed outbreak. All outbreak cases resided in or travelled to locations in the Break O'Day Local Government Area and reported no recent interstate travel. No virus was detected in pooled mosquito samples. CONCLUSIONS: This is Tasmania's first confirmed outbreak of BFv. Known BFv vector species were identified in both saltmarsh and urban-fringe brackish saltmarsh larval habitats. BFv was not detected from pooled mosquito samples. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: Clinicians should consider BFv as a possible diagnosis for presentations with fever and arthritis, and potential mosquito exposure in Tasmania. These findings will guide broadening of prevention-focussed public health messaging.

Predictive modelling of Ross River virus using climate data in the Darling Downs.

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common mosquito-borne infection in Australia. RRV disease is characterised by joint pain and lethargy, placing a substantial burden on individual patients, the healthcare system and economy. This burden is compounded by a lack of effective treatment or vaccine for the disease. The complex RRV disease ecology cycle includes a number of reservoirs and vectors that inhabit a range of environments and climates across Australia. Climate is known to influence humans, animals and the environment and has previously been shown to be useful to RRV prediction models. We developed a negative binomial regression model to predict monthly RRV case numbers and outbreaks in the Darling Downs region of Queensland, Australia. Human RRV notifications and climate data for the period July 2001 - June 2014 were used for model training. Model predictions were tested using data for July 2014 - June 2019. The final model was moderately effective at predicting RRV case numbers (Pearson's r = 0.427) and RRV outbreaks (accuracy = 65%, sensitivity = 59%, specificity = 73%). Our findings show that readily available climate data can provide timely prediction of RRV outbreaks.

Prediction of Ross River virus incidence in Queensland, Australia: building and comparing models.

Transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) is influenced by climatic, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Accurate and robust predictions based on these factors are necessary for disease prevention and control. However, the complicated transmission cycle and the characteristics of RRV notification data present challenges. Studies to compare model performance are lacking. In this study, we used RRV notification data and exposure data from 2001 to 2020 in Queensland, Australia, and compared ten models (including generalised linear models, zero-inflated models, and generalised additive models) to predict RRV incidence in different regions of Queensland. We aimed to compare model performance and to evaluate the effect of statistical over-dispersion and zero-inflation of RRV surveillance data, and non-linearity of predictors on model fit. A variable selection strategy for screening important predictors was developed and was found to be efficient and able to generate consistent and reasonable numbers of predictors across regions and in all training sets. Negative binomial models generally exhibited better model fit than Poisson models, suggesting that over-dispersion in the data is the primary factor driving model fit compared to non-linearity of predictors and excess zeros. All models predicted the peak periods well but were unable to fit and predict the magnitude of peaks, especially when there were high numbers of cases. Adding new variables including historical RRV cases and mosquito abundance may improve model performance. The standard negative binomial generalised linear model is stable, simple, and effective in prediction, and is thus considered the best choice among all models.

Seroconversion of anti-Getah virus antibody among Japanese native Noma horses around 2012.

Getah virus (GETV), an arthropod-borne virus transmitted by mosquitoes, has been isolated from several animals. GETV infection in horses shows clinical signs such as fever, rash, and edema in the leg. Noma horses are one of the eight Japanese native horses. The present study aimed to clarify the occurrence of GETV infection in Noma horses. Serum samples collected from Noma horses were analyzed using a virus neutralization test and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and showed that the anti-GETV antibody titers in the samples collected in 2017 were significantly higher than those collected in 2012. We concluded that a seroconversion of anti-GETV antibodies was occurred in the Noma horse population around 2012, providing evidence of the GETV epidemic in Japan circa 2012.

Spatio-temporal distribution of vector borne diseases in Australia and Papua New Guinea vis-à-vis climatic factors.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: Weather and climate are directly linked to human health including the distribution and occurrence of vector-borne diseases which are of significant concern for public health. METHODS: In this review, studies on spatiotemporal distribution of dengue, Barmah Forest Virus (BFV) and Ross River Virus (RRV) in Australia and malaria in Papua New Guinea (PNG) under the influence of climate change and/ or human society conducted in the past two decades were analysed and summarised. Environmental factors such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and tides were the main contributors from climate. RESULTS: The Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) index (a product from the Australian Bureau of Statistics that ranks areas in Australia according to relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage) was important in evaluating contribution from human society. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION: For future studies, more emphasis on evaluation of impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and human society on spatio-temporal distribution of vector borne diseases is recommended to highlight importance of the environmental factors in spreading mosquito-borne diseases in Australia and PNG.

Epidemiological Study of Multiple Zoonotic Mosquito-Borne Alphaviruses in Horses in Queensland, Australia (2018-2020).

The increased frequency of extreme weather events due to climate change has complicated the epidemiological pattern of mosquito-borne diseases, as the host and vector dynamics shift to adapt. However, little is known about the seroprevalence of common mosquito-borne virus infections in horses in Australia. In this study, serological surveys for multiple alphaviruses were performed on samples taken from 622 horses across two horse populations (racehorses and horses residing on The University of Queensland (UQ) campus) in Queensland using the gold standard virus neutralization test. As is the case in humans across Australia, Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common arbovirus infection in horses, followed by Barmah Forest virus, with an overall apparent seroprevalence of 48.6% (302/622) and 4.3% (26/607), respectively. Horses aged over 6 years old (OR 1.86, p = 0.01) and residing at UQ (OR 5.8, p < 0.001) were significantly associated with seroconversion to RRV. A significant medium correlation (r = 0.626, p < 0.001) between RRV and Getah virus (GETV) neutralizing antibody titers was identified. Collectively, these results advance the current epidemiological knowledge of arbovirus exposure in a susceptible host in Australia. The potential use of horses as sentinels for arbovirus monitoring should be considered. Furthermore, since GETV is currently exotic to Australia, antibodies cross-reactivity between RRV and GETV should be further investigated for cross-protection, which may also help to inform vaccine developments.

Epidemiological and Genomic Characterisation of Middelburg and Sindbis Alphaviruses Identified in Horses with Febrile and Neurological Infections, South Africa (2014-2018).

Although Old World alphaviruses, Middelburg- (MIDV) and Sindbis virus (SINV), have previously been detected in horses and wildlife with neurologic disease in South Africa, the pathogenesis and clinical presentation of MIDV and SINV infections in animals are not well documented. Clinical samples from horses across South Africa with acute or fatal neurologic and febrile infections submitted between 2014-2018 were investigated. In total, 69/1084 (6.36%) and 11/1084 (1.01%) horses tested positive for MIDV and SINV, respectively, by real-time reverse transcription (RT) PCR. Main signs/outcomes for MIDV (n = 69): 73.91% neurological, 75.36% fever, 28.99% icterus and anorexia, respectively, 8.70% fatalities; SINV (n = 11): 54.54% neurological, 72.73% fever, 36.36% anorexia and 18.18% fatalities. MIDV cases peaked in the late summer/autumn across most South African provinces while SINV cases did not show a clear seasonality and were detected in fewer South African provinces. MIDV could still be detected in blood samples via RT-PCR for up to 71,417 and 21 days after onset of signs in 4 horses respectively, suggesting prolonged replication relative to SINV which could only be detected in the initial sample. Phylogenetic analyses based on partial sequences of the nsP4 (MIDV n = 59 and SINV n = 7) and E1 (MIDV n = 45) genes, as well as full genome sequences (MIDV n = 6), clustered the MIDV and SINV strains from the present study with previously detected strains. MIDV infection appears to be more prevalent in horses than SINV infection based on RT-PCR results, however, prevalence estimates might be different when also considering serological surveillance data.

Mayaro Virus: The State-of-the-Art for Antiviral Drug Development.

Mayaro virus is an emerging arbovirus that causes nonspecific febrile illness or arthralgia syndromes similar to the Chikungunya virus, a virus closely related from the Togaviridae family. MAYV outbreaks occur more frequently in the northern and central-western states of Brazil; however, in recent years, virus circulation has been spreading to other regions. Due to the undifferentiated initial clinical symptoms between MAYV and other endemic pathogenic arboviruses with geographic overlapping, identification of patients infected by MAYV might be underreported. Additionally, the lack of specific prophylactic approaches or antiviral drugs limits the pharmacological management of patients to treat symptoms like pain and inflammation, as is the case with most pathogenic alphaviruses. In this context, this review aims to present the state-of-the-art regarding the screening and development of compounds/molecules which may present anti-MAYV activity and infection inhibition.

First confirmation of salmonid alphavirus infection in rainbow trout in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia.

Sleeping disease is a highly infectious viral disease caused by salmonid alphavirus subtype 2 (SAV2 FW), affecting mainly rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss farmed in freshwater. During March to May 2014, disease episodes with clinical signs of sleeping disease in rainbow trout fingerlings occurred almost simultaneously in 2 trout farms located in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and Serbia. The infection of rainbow trout with SAV2 FW in 2 farms was confirmed by virus isolation and molecular methods. This is the first isolation and molecular characterization of SAV2 FW in BiH and Serbia.

Sindbis virus outbreak and evidence for geographical expansion in Finland, 2021.

Sindbis virus (SINV) caused a large outbreak in Finland in 2021 with 566 laboratory-confirmed human cases and a notable geographical expansion. Compared with the last large outbreak in 2002, incidence was higher in several hospital districts but lower in traditionally endemic locations in eastern parts of the country. A high incidence is also expected in 2022. Awareness of SINV should be raised in Finland to increase recognition of the disease and prevent transmission through the promotion of control measures.

Weather extremes associated with increased Ross River virus and Barmah Forest virus notifications in NSW: learnings for public health response.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the sequence of environmental and entomological events prior to a substantial increase in Ross River virus (RRV) and Barmah Forest virus (BFV) notifications with a view to informing future public health response. METHODS: Rainfall, tidal, mosquito and human arboviral notification data were analysed to determine the temporality of events. RESULTS: Following two extremely dry years, there was a substantial increase in the abundance of mosquitoes along coastal New South Wales (NSW) two weeks after a significant rainfall event and high tides in February 2020. Subsequently, RRV and BFV notifications in north east NSW began to increase eight and nine weeks respectively after the high rainfall, with RRV notifications peaking 12 weeks after the high rainfall. CONCLUSIONS: Mosquito bite avoidance messaging should be instigated within two weeks of high summer rainfall, especially after an extended dry period. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: Intense summertime rain events, which are expected to increase in frequency in south-east Australia with climate change, can lead to significant increases in arboviral disease. These events need to be recognised by public health practitioners to facilitate timely public health response. This has taken on added importance since the emergence of Japanese encephalitis virus in southeastern Australia in 2022.