Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on breast cancer screening in a large midwestern United States academic medical center.

BACKGROUND: Access to breast screening mammogram services decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our objectives were to estimate: 1) the COVID-19 affected period, 2) the proportion of pandemic-associated missed or delayed screening encounters, and 3) pandemic-associated patient attrition in screening encounters overall and by sociodemographic subgroup. METHODS: We included screening mammogram encounter EPIC data from 1-1-2019 to 12-31-2022 for females ≥40 years old. We used Bayesian State Space models to describe weekly screening mammogram counts, modeling an interruption that phased in and out between 3-1-2020 and 9-1-2020. We used the posterior predictive distribution to model differences between a predicted, uninterrupted process and the observed screening mammogram counts. We estimated associations between race/ethnicity and age group and return screening mammogram encounters during the pandemic among those with 2019 encounters using logistic regression. RESULTS: Our analysis modeling weekly screening mammogram counts included 231,385 encounters (n = 127,621 women). Model-estimated screening mammograms dropped by >98% between 03-15-2020 and 05-24-2020 followed by a return to pre-pandemic levels or higher with similar results by race/ethnicity and age group. Among 79,257 women, non-Hispanic (NH) Asians, NH Blacks, and Hispanics had significantly (p < .05) lower odds of screening encounter returns during 2020-2022 vs. NH Whites with odds ratios (ORs) from 0.70 to 0.91. Among 79,983 women, those 60-69 had significantly higher odds of any return screening encounter during 2020-2022 (OR = 1.28), while those ≥80 and 40-49 had significantly lower odds (ORs 0.77, 0.45) than those 50-59 years old. A sensitivity analysis suggested a possible pre-existing pattern. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest a short-term pandemic effect on screening mammograms of ~2 months with no evidence of disparities. However, we observed racial/ethnic disparities in screening mammogram returns during the pandemic that may be at least partially pre-existing. These results may inform future pandemic planning and continued efforts to eliminate mammogram screening disparities.

Comparing trophic position estimates using bulk and compound specific stable isotope analyses: applying new approaches to mackerel icefish Champsocephalus gunnari.

Quantifying the tropic position (TP) of an animal species is key to understanding its ecosystem function. While both bulk and compound-specific analyses of stable isotopes are widely used for this purpose, few studies have assessed the consistency between and within such approaches. Champsocephalus gunnari is a specialist teleost that predates almost exclusively on Antarctic krill Euphausia superba. This well-known and nearly constant trophic relationship makes C. gunnari particularly suitable for assessing consistency between TP methods under field conditions. In the present work, we produced and compared TP estimates for C. gunnari and its main prey using a standard bulk and two amino acid-specific stable isotope approaches (CSI-AA). One based on the difference between glutamate and phenylalanine (TPGlx-Phe), and the other on the proline-phenylalanine difference (TPPro-Phe). To do that, samples from C. gunnari, E. superba and four other pelagic invertebrate and fish species, all potential prey for C.gunnari, were collected off the South Orkney Islands between January and March 2019, analyzed using standard isotopic ratio mass spectrometry methods and interpreted following a Bayesian approach. Median estimates (CI95%) for C. gunnari were similar between TPbulk (3.6; CI95%: 3.0-4.8) and TPGlx-Phe(3.4; CI95%:3.2-3.6), and lower for TPPro-Phe (3.1; CI95%:3.0-3.3). TP differences between C. gunnari and E. superba were 1.4, 1.1 and 1.2, all compatible with expectations from the monospecific diet of this predator (ΔTP=1). While these results suggest greater accuracy for Glx-Phe and Pro-Phe, differences observed between both CSI-AA approaches suggests these methods may require further validation before becoming a standard tool for trophic ecology.

Machine learning-based classification of petrofacies in fine laminated limestones.

Characterization and development of hydrocarbon reservoirs depends on the classification of lithological patterns from well log data. In thin reservoir units, limited vertical data impedes the efficient classification of lithologies. We present a test case of petrofacies classification using machine learning models in a thin interval of finely laminated limestones using pseudo-well data created over outcrops (radiometric and unconfined compressive strength logs). We tested Gaussian naïve Bayes (GNB) and support vector machine (SVM) techniques to classify eight petrofacies types, divided into two groups. The objective was to observe the capacity of some well-known models to classify petrofacies with a high-frequency vertical variation of diagenetic heterogeneities in an extreme scenario within a thin sedimentary interval. The GNB was less effective (F 1 score of 0.29), and the SVM achieved the best results in classifying the main facies patterns (F 1 = 0.47). However, the GNB performed better when the analysis was focused on distinguishing the two main groups of petrofacies. The results demonstrate that high-frequency facies variations present a challenge to the automatic identification of lithofacies, mainly due to local variations in horizontal heterogeneities (on the mm- to cm-scale) created by depositional and diagenetic processes, which impact the flow in porous media.

Uncertainty Computation at Finite Distance in Nonlinear Mixed Effects Models-a New Method Based on Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm.

The standard errors (SE) of the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the population parameter vector in nonlinear mixed effect models (NLMEM) are usually estimated using the inverse of the Fisher information matrix (FIM). However, at a finite distance, i.e. far from the asymptotic, the FIM can underestimate the SE of NLMEM parameters. Alternatively, the standard deviation of the posterior distribution, obtained in Stan via the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm, has been shown to be a proxy for the SE, since, under some regularity conditions on the prior, the limiting distributions of the MLE and of the maximum a posterior estimator in a Bayesian framework are equivalent. In this work, we develop a similar method using the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm in parallel to the stochastic approximation expectation maximisation (SAEM) algorithm, implemented in the saemix R package. We assess this method on different simulation scenarios and data from a real case study, comparing it to other SE computation methods. The simulation study shows that our method improves the results obtained with frequentist methods at finite distance. However, it performed poorly in a scenario with the high variability and correlations observed in the real case study, stressing the need for calibration.

Comparative mathematical modeling of causal association between metal exposure and development of chronic kidney disease.

Background: Previous studies have identified several genetic and environmental risk factors for chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, little is known about the relationship between serum metals and CKD risk. Methods: We investigated associations between serum metals levels and CKD risk among 100 medical examiners and 443 CKD patients in the medical center of the First Hospital Affiliated to China Medical University. Serum metal concentrations were measured using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). We analyzed factors influencing CKD, including abnormalities in Creatine and Cystatin C, using univariate and multiple analysis such as Lasso and Logistic regression. Metal levels among CKD patients at different stages were also explored. The study utilized machine learning and Bayesian Kernel Machine Regression (BKMR) to assess associations and predict CKD risk based on serum metals. A chained mediation model was applied to investigate how interventions with different heavy metals influence renal function indicators (creatinine and cystatin C) and their impact on diagnosing and treating renal impairment. Results: Serum potassium (K), sodium (Na), and calcium (Ca) showed positive trends with CKD, while selenium (Se) and molybdenum (Mo) showed negative trends. Metal mixtures had a significant negative effect on CKD when concentrations were all from 30th to 45th percentiles compared to the median, but the opposite was observed for the 55th to 60th percentiles. For example, a change in serum K concentration from the 25th to the 75th percentile was associated with a significant increase in CKD risk of 5.15(1.77,8.53), 13.62(8.91,18.33) and 31.81(14.03,49.58) when other metals were fixed at the 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles, respectively. Conclusions: Cumulative metal exposures, especially double-exposure to serum K and Se may impact CKD risk. Machine learning methods validated the external relevance of the metal factors. Our study highlights the importance of employing diverse methodologies to evaluate health effects of metal mixtures.

Morphological Stability for in silico Models of Avascular Tumors.

The landscape of computational modeling in cancer systems biology is diverse, offering a spectrum of models and frameworks, each with its own trade-offs and advantages. Ideally, models are meant to be useful in refining hypotheses, to sharpen experimental procedures and, in the longer run, even for applications in personalized medicine. One of the greatest challenges is to balance model realism and detail with experimental data to eventually produce useful data-driven models. We contribute to this quest by developing a transparent, highly parsimonious, first principle in silico model of a growing avascular tumor. We initially formulate the physiological considerations and the specific model within a stochastic cell-based framework. We next formulate a corresponding mean-field model using partial differential equations which is amenable to mathematical analysis. Despite a few notable differences between the two models, we are in this way able to successfully detail the impact of all parameters in the stability of the growth process and on the eventual tumor fate of the stochastic model. This facilitates the deduction of Bayesian priors for a given situation, but also provides important insights into the underlying mechanism of tumor growth and progression. Although the resulting model framework is relatively simple and transparent, it can still reproduce the full range of known emergent behavior. We identify a novel model instability arising from nutrient starvation and we also discuss additional insight concerning possible model additions and the effects of those. Thanks to the framework's flexibility, such additions can be readily included whenever the relevant data become available.

Potential therapeutic targets for membranous nephropathy: proteome-wide Mendelian randomization and colocalization analysis.

Background: The currently available medications for treating membranous nephropathy (MN) still have unsatisfactory efficacy in inhibiting disease recurrence, slowing down its progression, and even halting the development of end-stage renal disease. There is still a need to develop novel drugs targeting MN. Methods: We utilized summary statistics of MN from the Kiryluk Lab and obtained plasma protein data from Zheng et al. We performed a Bidirectional Mendelian randomization analysis, HEIDI test, mediation analysis, Bayesian colocalization, phenotype scanning, drug bank analysis, and protein-protein interaction network. Results: The Mendelian randomization analysis uncovered 8 distinct proteins associated with MN after multiple false discovery rate corrections. Proteins related to an increased risk of MN in plasma include ABO [(Histo-Blood Group Abo System Transferase) (WR OR = 1.12, 95%CI:1.05-1.19, FDR=0.09, PPH4 = 0.79)], VWF [(Von Willebrand Factor) (WR OR = 1.41, 95%CI:1.16-1.72, FDR=0.02, PPH4 = 0.81)] and CD209 [(Cd209 Antigen) (WR OR = 1.19, 95%CI:1.07-1.31, FDR=0.09, PPH4 = 0.78)], and proteins that have a protective effect on MN: HRG [(Histidine-Rich Glycoprotein) (WR OR = 0.84, 95%CI:0.76-0.93, FDR=0.02, PPH4 = 0.80)], CD27 [(Cd27 Antigen) (WR OR = 0.78, 95%CI:0.68-0.90, FDR=0.02, PPH4 = 0.80)], LRPPRC [(Leucine-Rich Ppr Motif-Containing Protein, Mitochondrial) (WR OR = 0.79, 95%CI:0.69-0.91, FDR=0.09, PPH4 = 0.80)], TIMP4 [(Metalloproteinase Inhibitor 4) (WR OR = 0.67, 95%CI:0.53-0.84, FDR=0.09, PPH4 = 0.79)] and MAP2K4 [(Dual Specificity Mitogen-Activated Protein Kinase Kinase 4) (WR OR = 0.82, 95%CI:0.72-0.92, FDR=0.09, PPH4 = 0.80)]. ABO, HRG, and TIMP4 successfully passed the HEIDI test. None of these proteins exhibited a reverse causal relationship. Bayesian colocalization analysis provided evidence that all of them share variants with MN. We identified type 1 diabetes, trunk fat, and asthma as having intermediate effects in these pathways. Conclusions: Our comprehensive analysis indicates a causal effect of ABO, CD27, VWF, HRG, CD209, LRPPRC, MAP2K4, and TIMP4 at the genetically determined circulating levels on the risk of MN. These proteins can potentially be a promising therapeutic target for the treatment of MN.

Exploring inflammatory bowel disease therapy targets through druggability genes: a Mendelian randomization study.

Background: Inflammatory bowel disease is an incurable group of recurrent inflammatory diseases of the intestine. Mendelian randomization has been utilized in the development of drugs for disease treatment, including the therapeutic targets for IBD that are identified through drug-targeted MR. Methods: Two-sample MR was employed to explore the cause-and-effect relationship between multiple genes and IBD and its subtypes ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease, and replication MR was utilized to validate this causality. Summary data-based Mendelian randomization analysis was performed to enhance the robustness of the outcomes, while Bayesian co-localization provided strong evidential support. Finally, the value of potential therapeutic target applications was determined by using the estimation of druggability. Result: With our investigation, we identified target genes associated with the risk of IBD and its subtypes UC and CD. These include the genes GPBAR1, IL1RL1, PRKCB, and PNMT, which are associated with IBD risk, IL1RL1, with a protective effect against CD risk, and GPX1, GPBAR1, and PNMT, which are involved in UC risk. Conclusion: In a word, this study identified several potential therapeutic targets associated with the risk of IBD and its subtypes, offering new insights into the development of therapeutic agents for IBD.

Solving Bongard Problems With a Visual Language and Pragmatic Constraints.

More than 50 years ago, Bongard introduced 100 visual concept learning problems as a challenge for artificial vision systems. These problems are now known as Bongard problems. Although they are well known in cognitive science and artificial intelligence, only very little progress has been made toward building systems that can solve a substantial subset of them. In the system presented here, visual features are extracted through image processing and then translated into a symbolic visual vocabulary. We introduce a formal language that allows representing compositional visual concepts based on this vocabulary. Using this language and Bayesian inference, concepts can be induced from the examples that are provided in each problem. We find a reasonable agreement between the concepts with high posterior probability and the solutions formulated by Bongard himself for a subset of 35 problems. While this approach is far from solving Bongard problems like humans, it does considerably better than previous approaches. We discuss the issues we encountered while developing this system and their continuing relevance for understanding visual cognition. For instance, contrary to other concept learning problems, the examples are not random in Bongard problems; instead they are carefully chosen to ensure that the concept can be induced, and we found it helpful to take the resulting pragmatic constraints into account.

Replication of null results: Absence of evidence or evidence of absence?

In several large-scale replication projects, statistically non-significant results in both the original and the replication study have been interpreted as a 'replication success.' Here, we discuss the logical problems with this approach: Non-significance in both studies does not ensure that the studies provide evidence for the absence of an effect and 'replication success' can virtually always be achieved if the sample sizes are small enough. In addition, the relevant error rates are not controlled. We show how methods, such as equivalence testing and Bayes factors, can be used to adequately quantify the evidence for the absence of an effect and how they can be applied in the replication setting. Using data from the Reproducibility Project: Cancer Biology, the Experimental Philosophy Replicability Project, and the Reproducibility Project: Psychology we illustrate that many original and replication studies with 'null results' are in fact inconclusive. We conclude that it is important to also replicate studies with statistically non-significant results, but that they should be designed, analyzed, and interpreted appropriately.

Reviving Bistable Perception in Patients With Depression by Decreasing the Overestimation of Prior Precision.

Slower perceptual alternations, a notable perceptual effect observed in psychiatric disorders, can be alleviated by antidepressant therapies that affect serotonin levels in the brain. While these phenomena have been well documented, the underlying neurocognitive mechanisms remain to be elucidated. Our study bridges this gap by employing a computational cognitive approach within a Bayesian predictive coding framework to explore these mechanisms in depression. We fitted a prediction error (PE) model to behavioral data from a binocular rivalry task, uncovering that significantly higher initial prior precision and lower PE led to a slower switch rate in patients with depression. Furthermore, serotonin-targeting antidepressant treatments significantly decreased the prior precision and increased PE, both of which were predictive of improvements in the perceptual alternation rate of depression patients. These findings indicated that the substantially slower perception switch rate in patients with depression was caused by the greater reliance on top-down priors and that serotonin treatment's efficacy was in its recalibration of these priors and enhancement of PE. Our study not only elucidates the cognitive underpinnings of depression, but also suggests computational modeling as a potent tool for integrating cognitive science with clinical psychology, advancing our understanding and treatment of cognitive impairments in depression.

Damage to tropical forests caused by cyclones is driven by wind speed but mediated by topographical exposure and tree characteristics.

Each year, an average of 45 tropical cyclones affect coastal areas and potentially impact forests. The proportion of the most intense cyclones has increased over the past four decades and is predicted to continue to do so. Yet, it remains uncertain how topographical exposure and tree characteristics can mediate the damage caused by increasing wind speed. Here, we compiled empirical data on the damage caused by 11 cyclones occurring over the past 40 years, from 74 forest plots representing tropical regions worldwide, encompassing field data for 22,176 trees and 815 species. We reconstructed the wind structure of those tropical cyclones to estimate the maximum sustained wind speed (MSW) and wind direction at the studied plots. Then, we used a causal inference framework combined with Bayesian generalised linear mixed models to understand and quantify the causal effects of MSW, topographical exposure to wind (EXP), tree size (DBH) and species wood density (ρ) on the proportion of damaged trees at the community level, and on the probability of snapping or uprooting at the tree level. The probability of snapping or uprooting at the tree level and, hence, the proportion of damaged trees at the community level, increased with increasing MSW, and with increasing EXP accentuating the damaging effects of cyclones, in particular at higher wind speeds. Higher ρ decreased the probability of snapping and to a lesser extent of uprooting. Larger trees tended to have lower probabilities of snapping but increased probabilities of uprooting. Importantly, the effect of ρ decreasing the probabilities of snapping was more marked for smaller than larger trees and was further accentuated at higher MSW. Our work emphasises how local topography, tree size and species wood density together mediate cyclone damage to tropical forests, facilitating better predictions of the impacts of such disturbances in an increasingly windier world.

Response Surface Model of the Reduced Flexibility Matrix for Bayesian Damage Identification.

The present work is concerned with the use of a Response Surface Model of the reduced flexibility matrix for structural damage identification. A Response Surface Model (RSM) is fitted with the aim at providing a polynomial relationship between nodal cohesion parameters, used to describe the damage field within the structure, and elements of the reduced flexibility matrix. A design of experiment built on combinations of a relatively small number of nodal cohesion parameters is used to fit the RSM. The damage identification problem is formulated within the Bayesian framework and the Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis method is used to sample the posterior probability density function of the uncertain cohesion parameters. Numerical simulations addressing damage identification in plates were carried out in order to assess the proposed approach, which succeeded in the identification of the different damage profiles considered. Besides, the use of a RSM, instead of a FEM of the structure, resulted in reductions of up almost 78% in the required computational cost.

HIV co-infection is associated with reduced Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmissibility in sub-Saharan Africa.

Persons living with HIV are known to be at increased risk of developing tuberculosis (TB) disease upon infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). However, it has remained unclear how HIV co-infection affects subsequent Mtb transmission from these patients. Here, we customized a Bayesian phylodynamic framework to estimate the effects of HIV co-infection on the Mtb transmission dynamics from sequence data. We applied our model to four Mtb genomic datasets collected in sub-Saharan African countries with a generalized HIV epidemic. Our results confirm that HIV co-infection is a strong risk factor for developing active TB. Additionally, we demonstrate that HIV co-infection is associated with a reduced effective reproductive number for TB. Stratifying the population by CD4+ T-cell count yielded similar results, suggesting that, in this context, CD4+ T-cell count is not a better predictor of Mtb transmissibility than HIV infection status alone. Together, our genome-based analyses complement observational household contact studies, and more firmly establish the negative association between HIV co-infection and Mtb transmissibility.

Experimental Evaluation of a Direct Fitness Effect of the De Novo Evolved Mouse Gene Pldi.

De novo evolved genes emerge from random parts of noncoding sequences and have, therefore, no homologs from which a function could be inferred. While expression analysis and knockout experiments can provide insights into the function, they do not directly test whether the gene is beneficial for its carrier. Here, we have used a seminatural environment experiment to test the fitness of the previously identified de novo evolved mouse gene Pldi, which has been implicated to have a role in sperm differentiation. We used a knockout mouse strain for this gene and competed it against its parental wildtype strain for several generations of free reproduction. We found that the knockout (ko) allele frequency decreased consistently across three replicates of the experiment. Using an approximate Bayesian computation framework that simulated the data under a demographic scenario mimicking the experiment's demography, we could estimate a selection coefficient ranging between 0.21 and 0.61 for the wildtype allele compared to the ko allele in males, under various models. This implies a relatively strong selective advantage, which would fix the new gene in less than hundred generations after its emergence.

Retuning of hippocampal representations during sleep.

Hippocampal representations that underlie spatial memory undergo continuous refinement following formation1. Here, to track the spatial tuning of neurons dynamically during offline states, we used a new Bayesian learning approach based on the spike-triggered average decoded position in ensemble recordings from freely moving rats. Measuring these tunings, we found spatial representations within hippocampal sharp-wave ripples that were stable for hours during sleep and were strongly aligned with place fields initially observed during maze exploration. These representations were explained by a combination of factors that included preconfigured structure before maze exposure and representations that emerged during θ-oscillations and awake sharp-wave ripples while on the maze, revealing the contribution of these events in forming ensembles. Strikingly, the ripple representations during sleep predicted the future place fields of neurons during re-exposure to the maze, even when those fields deviated from previous place preferences. By contrast, we observed tunings with poor alignment to maze place fields during sleep and rest before maze exposure and in the later stages of sleep. In sum, the new decoding approach allowed us to infer and characterize the stability and retuning of place fields during offline periods, revealing the rapid emergence of representations following new exploration and the role of sleep in the representational dynamics of the hippocampus.

Inferring skin-brain-skin connections from infodemiology data using dynamic Bayesian networks.

The relationship between skin diseases and mental illnesses has been extensively studied using cross-sectional epidemiological data. Typically, such data can only measure association (rather than causation) and include only a subset of the diseases we may be interested in. In this paper, we complement the evidence from such analyses by learning an overarching causal network model over twelve health conditions from the Google Search Trends Symptoms public data set. We learned the causal network model using a dynamic Bayesian network, which can represent both cyclic and acyclic causal relationships, is easy to interpret and accounts for the spatio-temporal trends in the data in a probabilistically rigorous way. The causal network confirms a large number of cyclic relationships between the selected health conditions and the interplay between skin and mental diseases. For acne, we observe a cyclic relationship with anxiety and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and an indirect relationship with depression through sleep disorders. For dermatitis, we observe directed links to anxiety, depression and sleep disorders and a cyclic relationship with ADHD. We also observe a link between dermatitis and ADHD and a cyclic relationship between acne and ADHD. Furthermore, the network includes several direct connections between sleep disorders and other health conditions, highlighting the impact of the former on the overall health and well-being of the patient. The average R 2 for a condition given the values of all conditions in the previous week is 0.67: in particular, 0.42 for acne, 0.85 for asthma, 0.58 for ADHD, 0.87 for burn, 0.76 for erectile dysfunction, 0.88 for scars, 0.57 for alcohol disorders, 0.57 for anxiety, 0.53 for depression, 0.74 for dermatitis, 0.60 for sleep disorders and 0.66 for obesity. Mapping disease interplay, indirect relationships, and the key role of mediators, such as sleep disorders, will allow healthcare professionals to address disease management holistically and more effectively. Even if we consider all skin and mental diseases jointly, each disease subnetwork is unique, allowing for more targeted interventions.

Consumer electronics based smart technologies for enhanced terahertz healthcare having an integration of split learning with medical imaging.

The proposed work contains three major contribution, such as smart data collection, optimized training algorithm and integrating Bayesian approach with split learning to make privacy of the patent data. By integrating consumer electronics device such as wearable devices, and the Internet of Things (IoT) taking THz image, perform EM algorithm as training, used newly proposed slit learning method the technology promises enhanced imaging depth and improved tissue contrast, thereby enabling early and accurate disease detection the breast cancer disease. In our hybrid algorithm, the breast cancer model achieves an accuracy of 97.5 percent over 100 epochs, surpassing the less accurate old models which required a higher number of epochs, such as 165.

A Bayesian spatio-temporal model of COVID-19 spread in England.

Exploring the spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19 transmission and its potential determinants could provide a deeper understanding of the dynamics of disease spread. This study aimed to investigate the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19 infections in England, and examine its associations with socioeconomic, demographic and environmental risk factors. We obtained weekly reported COVID-19 cases from 7 March 2020 to 26 March 2022 at Middle Layer Super Output Area (MSOA) level in mainland England from publicly available datasets. With these data, we conducted an ecological study to predict the COVID-19 infection risk and identify its associations with socioeconomic, demographic and environmental risk factors using a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model. The Bayesian model outperformed the ordinary least squares model and geographically weighted regression model in terms of prediction accuracy. The spread of COVID-19 infections over space and time was heterogeneous. Hotspots of infection risk exhibited inconsistent clustering patterns over time. Risk factors found to be positively associated with COVID-19 infection risk were: annual household income [relative risk (RR) = 1.0008, 95% Credible Interval (CI) 1.0005-1.0012], unemployment rate [RR = 1.0027, 95% CI 1.0024-1.0030], population density on the log scale [RR = 1.0146, 95% CI 1.0129-1.0164], percentage of Caribbean population [RR = 1.0022, 95% CI 1.0009-1.0036], percentage of adults aged 45-64 years old [RR = 1.0031, 95% CI 1.0024-1.0039], and particulate matter ( PM 2.5 ) concentrations [RR = 1.0126, 95% CI 1.0083-1.0167]. The study highlights the importance of considering socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors in analysing the spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19 infections in England. The findings could assist policymakers in developing tailored public health interventions at a localised level.

Comparison of quantitative whole body PET parameters on [68Ga]Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT using ordered Subset Expectation Maximization (OSEM) vs. bayesian penalized likelihood (BPL) reconstruction algorithms in men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: PSMA PET/CT is a predictive and prognostic biomarker for determining response to [177Lu]Lu-PSMA-617 in patients with metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Thresholds defined to date may not be generalizable to newer image reconstruction algorithms. Bayesian penalized likelihood (BPL) reconstruction algorithm is a novel reconstruction algorithm that may improve contrast whilst preventing introduction of image noise. The aim of this study is to compare the quantitative parameters obtained using BPL and the Ordered Subset Expectation Maximization (OSEM) reconstruction algorithms. METHODS: Fifty consecutive patients with mCRPC who underwent [68Ga]Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT using OSEM reconstruction to assess suitability for [177Lu]Lu-PSMA-617 therapy were selected. BPL algorithm was then used retrospectively to reconstruct the same PET raw data. Quantitative and volumetric measurements such as tumour standardised uptake value (SUV)max, SUVmean and Molecular Tumour Volume (MTV-PSMA) were calculated on both reconstruction methods. Results were compared (Bland-Altman, Pearson correlation coefficient) including subgroups with low and high-volume disease burdens (MTV-PSMA cut-off 40 mL). RESULTS: The SUVmax and SUVmean were higher, and MTV-PSMA was lower in the BPL reconstructed images compared to the OSEM group, with a mean difference of 8.4 (17.5%), 0.7 (8.2%) and - 21.5 mL (-3.4%), respectively. There was a strong correlation between the calculated SUVmax, SUVmean, and MTV-PSMA values in the OSEM and BPL reconstructed images (Pearson r values of 0.98, 0.99, and 1.0, respectively). No patients were reclassified from low to high volume disease or vice versa when switching from OSEM to BPL reconstruction. CONCLUSIONS: [68Ga]Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT quantitative and volumetric parameters produced by BPL and OSEM reconstruction methods are strongly correlated. Differences are proportional and small for SUVmean, which is used as a predictive biomarker. Our study suggests that both reconstruction methods are acceptable without clinical impact on quantitative or volumetric findings. For longitudinal comparison, committing to the same reconstruction method would be preferred to ensure consistency.